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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation’s ballot paper voting responses raise questions about incumbency boosts on which the Tories are relying so much
In its latest poll for the Mail on Sunday Survation added a new dimension – a voting question based on the precise ballot paper that each of the 2100 people sampled will actually fill in on Thursday or have already done so with postal votes.
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Dan Hodges @DPJHodges · May 2
Some very upbeat Tory candidates out there this evening.
"The changes between the two voting questions are shown in the chart above and have the Tories doing worst while the LDs doing better. No surprise about the latter but a worry for the former."
Considering where both parties are in the polls, and also adding in the personal polling of their leaders, why no surprise at the Libdems doing better than their Conservative counter parts when in comes to incumbency? If anything, the points I have raised should be a worry when rushing to interpret this new polling.
If Lab and Con have approximately five times as many MPs as the Lib Dems, then doesn´t it mean that the Lib Dem have to be scaled up? In fact, the Lib Dem incumbents are doing five times as well?
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/v560chbmi3/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-030515.pdf
Labour London has the lowest certainty to vote (68) while SNP Scotland has the highest (80), and how people will vote also follows same pattern - 79% of Londoners have definitely decided how to vote, while 90% of Scots (and 91% in RoS) know who they will vote for.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b05ssnfy
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32575131
"Thousands of disillusioned voters across the country are pledging to trade their votes with other people using swapping websites. Joe Tidy reports."
http://news.sky.com/video/1477184/thousands-planning-to-vote-swap
http://news.sky.com/story/1477127/final-tv-clash-snp-could-vote-down-labour-budget
It all sounds very soviet.
YouGov's methology changed at data point number 74 and took 5 days to fully impact upon the moving average.
C 36, L 34. If this is anywhere near as correct, a huge number of Tories will go.
In 2010, the Tories had a lead of 11.7%. Therefore, swing = 4.8% - big !
In future elections we may see Tory-Ukip vote swapping - though it's not in their nature so maybe it won't catch on. Of course, should that start happening the left wing media might not be so keen on it.
If thats true then all the polls are wrong & we're heading for a tory win.
Not sure I go for this guff about what troops & candidates are saying but there seems good evidence the tories are much more upbeat than the polls should have them.
Assume the Tories gain 15 from the Lib Dems and Labour 10. Assume Tories lose 3 to UKIP.
Starting points 306+ 15-3 = 318; 223+10= 233.
Difference is 85 which means to achieve a lead Labour needs 43 gains. For the Tories to have a lead of 30 Labour need to be restricted to 28 gains.
If Yougov is right they will have nearer 75 gains and a significant lead with most of the 2010 gains falling back to Labour. If ICM is right (4% lead) it is nearer 40 with a very small Tory lead. The tories only win by 30 seats by my reckoning if they get more like a 6% lead. Possible, but not indicated by very much of the polling at the moment and hardly "end of."
I find the current SPIN midpoints inexplicable. It is a repeat of 2010 with silly money being invested in a Tory success by punters voting with their hearts instead of their heads.
Remember this is the news organisation that went on for a month about a Tory visiting a yacht completely forgetting that a key member of the Labour government was also there
A YouGov survey of 1,162 voters in Scotland puts the Scottish Nationalists on 49%, Labour on 26%, the Conservatives on 15% and Lib Dems on 7%, with Ukip on 2% and the Greens on 1%.
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/article1551990.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2015_05_02
25 hours 25 minutes 25 seconds
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The eve of poll SUPER ARSE has been moved forward one hour to 9:00pm on Wednesday evening.
http://show.nojam.com/a2sq/summary.php?b=0
I see that you had the converse with Lab 290 Con 270. Interesting to see Shadsy went for Lab 300 too.
http://edition.cnn.com/2015/05/03/us/mohammed-drawing-contest-shooting/
ICM would give them 33 gains, resulting in 266/285.
My view at the time was that that was what the polling indicated and it has not really changed since. I am expecting something like 50 Labour gains in E&W but slightly more tory/Lib Dem gains than in my example. At the time I expected some recovery from Labour in Scotland but if anything this has gone the other way with the SNP clearly going to be higher than I estimated at that time (42 IIRC) so Labour may well be less than 20 ahead.
However just like Ashton polls with second questions the methodology is untested.
My suspicion is still that,at the end of the day on the 7th the seat numbers overall by aprty will b epretty close to UNS UKand UNS Scotland.
Mind you I think its the moment i decided not to vote Labour. The Edstone I mean.
My delayed chat with my Conservative source has been rescheduled for tomorrow and it would be interesting to compare your views.
An NHS with time to care will need many more immigrants for one.
I have my doubts about two part questions, to be honest, and this just reinforces them. What I suspect Survation is picking up is a bunch of reluctant Tory voters who then take the second question ("no really, if you think *really* hard, will you change your mind and vote for someone apart from those horrible Tories") as a prompt that they got the answer wrong.
Is that your well honed local political instinct or based on more solid local intel ?
A conservative voter last time who is a Labour voter this time. Haven't seen many straight switchers but they are out there. And on the ground there aren't many Tory posters (except in farmers fields) but our posters are appearing like a rash, even in houses we haven't identified as supporting us.
Anyway, a bit of brekkie and back to it!
Meanwhile me and my mates are going to get together privately on the other side of the country having never been to your area. We will swop all our votes and ensure you get the one person to represent you (this guy you mention) for the next 5 years, "who until Feb had nothing to do with the place" and from a party you don't and would not support in a million years. After that we won't ever give you and your place a thought or a care.
On top of that because of the swapping the swing to that party you would never vote for here in your constituency provides an additional seat. This seat and in a few other places results in that party gaining just enough seats to put a there leader as PM in No10. So now you have a constituency MP you never wanted, from a party you would never have voted for and their PM in No 10.
Now do you get it???
(Of course it can also happen in reverse fro a right wing voter but is it fair or correct?)
I agree that there is a Tory bias in terms of betting, so the value does look to be on the Lab side. On the other hand I thought that the indyref betting value was on Yes as the polls seemed too close for 4/1 on Yes to be reasonable, but the markets were right.
England only: C 39.5%, L 28.07%
I stand corrected. So swing is 4.1%
Based on Yougov , England & Wales weighted sample of 1629, applying UNS with exact swings [ and my own adjustments ]:
C 267 - 3 - 6 = 258
L 279 - 2 + 6 = 283
LD 16 + 8 = 24
PC 3 + 1 = 4
GRN 1 = 1
UKIP 0 + 3 = 3
RES + 1
SPK 1 = 1
add
SNP 48, L 6, LD 3, C 2
Final GB tally: based on Yougov E&W weighted sample of 1629
C 260, L 290, LD 27, PC 4, GRN 1, UKIP 3, SPK 1, SNP 48, RES 1
Another result I have noted. Seats like Ealing Acton, Enfield North, Croydon Central, Harrow East are now near the tipping point.
Guess where the Labour biggies are visiting lately.
BTW, Hampstead & Kilburn should be well clear. There maybe local difficulties !
So, why is this so markedly different from pollsters ? It could be:
Labour is underperforming in the marginal;
Yougov E&W is wrong;
One of the South London LD/Tory marginals..
I think the problem is that we are now in a 4-party election in England, not 3. Also, I believe the 11.7% gap for 2010 was England only. Most pollsters are giving us a 3% gap for England/Wales - slightly different thing.
Anecdotally, there is no doubt Tories are picking up some Lib Dem votes, even some Labour but losing some to Labour and UKIP. So, there is too much going on to work out figures. I am still sticking to that Labour's swing in England will be 1% or less. I know I have been wrong before, many times, but that is based on the thousands of returns from 6 constituencies. Interestingly CCHQ are sending us to places to win rather than to defend. Are they confident of success in marginals? Or given up? Certainly,following local Labour on twitter they are dead quiet and bumping into them at council meetings they have lost their arrogance. Is this a sign of victory or defeat? Would love your views. For me Jack W's view is where I am too!
Peter Kellner reckons the swing in Con/Lab marginals is 1% lower than across E & W as a whole.
DISCUSSIONS are taking place within Scottish Labour for the party to become fully independent of London control, The National has learned.
http://www.thenational.scot/politics/scottish-labour-are-holding-discussions-over-split-from-london-hq.2592
Feels like polling day will be the end of Act 1, rather than the play's conclusion.
In Scotland, I have given Con 2 seats.
This is based on Yougov's E&W sample of 1629 only . Only one poll !!!!!!!!!!!!!
Maybe, in other polls, swing in E&W is less than 4.1%. That would change things dramatically. This is purely a statistical exercise - albeit with my adjustments which are minor.
However he has stopped clock syndrome so is due a correct bet.
One can always rely on Boris for his completely impartial view of these things...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11580804/Dont-let-Ed-Miliband-sink-this-country-with-his-commie-slab-of-rock.html
I would give a year's pay to see Gordon Brown's face if Labour lose all their seats in Scotland and the Conservatives win two.
It would be the funniest moment in politics since Portillo got the chop.
40:30:20 would be my guess
Is it really beyond the capacity of political parties to hire people with a reasonable command of English to either (a) write or (b) check these things?
Leanne:
What I find quite staggering is the attitude from Lab politicians, assuming Plaid Cymru, the SNP and Greens are in their pocket.
We would be prepard to vote down a Labour budget that was putting more on the backs of the poor … They need to take on board some of the things we are saying.
People are saying neither of the two main parties have done enough to win trust and a mandate to govern. That’s democracy .
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2015/may/04/election-2015-live-result-knife-edge-ken-clarke-warns-chaos-second-vote#block-55470d32e4b03ffb297e56b6
BTW, there has been a pattern for the internet polls with much smaller sample sizes to assign greater support to labour than the larger polls exclusively focusing on Scotland. In those polls, the SNP has getting upward of 49%.
"However, the latest swing to the SNP has not been replicated in the polls that Scotland on Sunday has uniquely been following during the campaign.
These are the Britain-wide polls, of which there were no less than 18 last week. Individually, these contain too few Scots to provide a reliable estimate of how well the parties are doing north of the Border. But collectively, they have interviewed around 2,000 Scots – more than most Scotland-wide polls.
The SNP remain well ahead in these polls. But at 45 per cent their tally is much as it has been throughout the campaign.
Equally, after having shown signs of slipping during the campaign, Labour support has crept back up to 28 per cent during the last week."
http://www.scotsman.com/news/john-curtice-still-hope-for-labour-in-scotland-1-3761699
I don't quite know why this is but I take it as further evidence that the national internet polls overstate Labour support.
Then the short campaign started. No more leaflets (just an election address across the constituency plus a few targeted drops in winnable wards only), no more road trip armies, and a few reports from normals that they saw him out leafleting and he wouldn't atop and talk saying he didn't have time. On Saturday as we had our local volunteer force out in droves I drove past the Tories gathering at lunchtime - a dozen of them sent out to knock on a very limited number of doors in pairs.
Its like the short campaign started and his campaign stopped.
Even though the yellow triangles are every where
I have driven through there many times on my way to work.
York Central is 1 -50 for Labour.
I remember when York was a marginal between Conservatives and Labour, changing at many election from 1964 to 1992
How times change.
Broxtowe LibDem Gain !!!!
With exception of becoming an MP he was coronated all the way and when he got the ultimate prize and finally by law had to face the electorate he was gone. His long lasting legacy of damage, destruction and wanton vandalism will remain though and for generations to come. He won't be forgotten easily that's for sure.
MIlliband, son of Brown, will just continue the temporarily postponed project of course and do the same but with even a more dire outcome.
We will also get a stone phallus in No 10 ( Err.. The stone I mean). ;-)
Probably won't happen though. She cannot possibly find that staggering, as it was her categorical words on the subject and the very few seats the PC and Greens have that let Ed know they are in his pocket if push comes to shove. Only the SNP have the muscle to make Ed stop and think, and they are just tagging on to their coattails (openly so, given much of the PC pitch during the debates at least was 'One day, we could be like the SNP'). Now she is rolling back on her words a little to give the indication her support is not guaranteed, understandably, but let's face it, if the SNP are on board then PC are probably on board, so Ed still only has to worry about the former.