A link to Jack's ARSE would be useful - what is it saying today?
It's saying you'll have to wait until tomorrow morning for the final twice weekly projection to be published.
OK, found it and like what I found. Think the airwar has been so poor that local ground wars will assume even greater importance than usual in last few days.
SNP voting with Conservatives to bring down a Labour government? Has that ever happened before?
1979. The traitors have form.
Was that when they voted with the 30 traitorous Labour MP's to get rid of a useless bunch of no hopers.
The SNP need a Conservative UK Government . You do to , so you can vote for a center right government in an Independent Scotland. It suits you to stir English Nationalism.
You do not say this though, to your anti austerity supporters, with their love in for Nicola.
You really are a trojan horse, for any Scottish left wing supporters
Everyone talks up Labour's ground war but don't forget it was in position in 2010. It is not an extra weapon, it is not new. So, their GOTV will not be any better.
Labour's GOTV in 2010 probably saved 20 seats. Just check out the projections at eve of poll.
Yes the Red's GOTV in 2010 was excellent. My point is that it can't get any better. Certainly in SW London (anecdote I accept) they have no-one in Carshalton & Wallington, Sutton & CHeam, Wimbledon, Kingston. No-one at all door knocking. They have given up in Battersea, are less on the ground in Tooting. Croydon they are working hard but their numbers are diminishing. They will only hot Tories as hard as last time, no better.
The SPIN mid-point, showing that punters believe that the tories will have 25 seats more than labour may well be wrong. In fact, Mike Smithson thinks they are wrong, and has bet that they are wrong.
There is much chat about people bettting with their 'hearts, not their heads'. If you talk to the SPIN (or Spreadex) traders, you will find that is no longer accurate. Punters bet on what they think that will happen, not what they want to happen. There are just as many sellers of England runs as buyers. 'Total goals' in a match has nearly as many sellers as buyers, even though everybody wants to see goals. The old, safe view was 'all the canny boys are sellers, the gamblers are buyers' is no longer true. The enthusiastic buyers have mostly 'retired hurt'.
The above is even more true with Betfair (the exception is that India's cricket team is always overbacked with 'sympathy money').
The weight of money is clearly not always right. But on Betfair expecially, it is an extremely accurate snapshot of the current likelihood of an event occurring.
Interestingly CCHQ are sending us to places to win rather than to defend. Are they confident of success in marginals? Or given up? Certainly,following local Labour on twitter they are dead quiet and bumping into them at council meetings they have lost their arrogance. Is this a sign of victory or defeat? Would love your views. For me Jack W's view is where I am too!
The view in Stockton South is that James Wharton had a massive long campaign. Huge cash spend on expensive leaflets delivered fortnightly at one point by Royal Mail, few local activists but several Road Trip 2015 coachloads brought in to generate some "here are my army" photos.
Then the short campaign started. No more leaflets (just an election address across the constituency plus a few targeted drops in winnable wards only), no more road trip armies, and a few reports from normals that they saw him out leafleting and he wouldn't atop and talk saying he didn't have time. On Saturday as we had our local volunteer force out in droves I drove past the Tories gathering at lunchtime - a dozen of them sent out to knock on a very limited number of doors in pairs.
Its like the short campaign started and his campaign stopped.
You do wonder what the HQ knows that we never do. And are they right?
In 2010, the Tories had a lead of 11.7%. Therefore, swing = 4.8% - big !
The lead in England and Wales was 10%. The swing in Yougov 4%.
E & W 2010: C 38.76%, L 28.52%
England only: C 39.5%, L 28.07%
I stand corrected. So swing is 4.1%
Based on Yougov , England & Wales weighted sample of 1629, applying UNS with exact swings [ and my own adjustments ]:
C 267 - 3 - 6 = 258
L 279 - 2 + 6 = 283
LD 16 + 8 = 24
PC 3 + 1 = 4
GRN 1 = 1
UKIP 0 + 3 = 3
RES + 1
SPK 1 = 1
add
SNP 48, L 6, LD 3, C 2
Final GB tally: based on Yougov E&W weighted sample of 1629
C 260, L 290, LD 27, PC 4, GRN 1, UKIP 3, SPK 1, SNP 48, RES 1
Another result I have noted. Seats like Ealing Acton, Endfield North, Croydon Central, Harrow East are now near the tipping point.
Guess where the Labour biggies are visiting lately.
BTW, Hampstead & Kilburn should be well clear. There maybe local difficulties !
I
Why do you think the Conservatives will do worse than UNS?
Peter Kellner reckons the swing in Con/Lab marginals is 1% lower than across E & W as a whole.
I am not saying C will do worse than UNS. My calculations are based on UNS. I took 3 away for UKIP [ whose 2010 figures are so low that UNS does not give them any seats ] and 6 to LD. In Scotland, I have given Con 2 seats.
This is based on Yougov's E&W sample of 1629 only . Only one poll !!!!!!!!!!!!!
Maybe, in other polls, swing in E&W is less than 4.1%. That would change things dramatically. This is purely a statistical exercise - albeit with my adjustments which are minor.
Sorry ! I made a small mistake with my colours in the spreadsheet.
I repeat [ purely based on England & Wales: Yougov weighted sample of 1629 which gives: C 36, L 34, LD 9, UKIP 13, GRN 5. ]
Initial swings results C 273, L 279, LD 16, PC 3, GRN 1, SPK 1.
To the above, my adjustments are:
UKIP + 3, C -3. LD +8, C -6, L -2, PC + 1, L -1
This gives: C 264, L 276, LD 24, PC 4, GRN 1, SPK 1. UKIP 3
add Scotland: SNP 48, L 6, LD 3, C 2
Final tally: C 266, L 282, LD 27, PC 4, GRN 1, SPK 1. SNP 48 UKIP 3. Total 632.
If latest You Gov is back to 9% for Lib Dems reasonable chance of LD getting 10% on either ICM or Ashcroft (assume they are releasing figures today).Also possibility on ICM that UKIP may be down to 4th place.
In Europe, internet pollster have tended to overstate insurgent parties, while phone pollsters have tended to understate them. This makes me fairly confident that UKIP will poll 12-13%.
With the LibDems, there are a number of both positives and negatives:
+ very high "don't knows" among 2010 voters, similar to conservatives in 1992 + evidence do better in named ballot polls + possibility of tactical voting
- LibDems need to be up weighted in most polls - lowest certainty to vote
I don't know how these interplay, but I'd reckon they just creep into double figures: 10-11%.
Poster watch: I have been travelling around west and south-west London quite a bit over the last week or so. The only board I have seen in Ealing Central and Acton is a yellow diamond prominently displayed on the A40 approaching Gypsy Corner from the west. However, it seems virtually every street in Richmond Park is peppered with Zac boards and quite a few in response from the LDs (hope Zac is keeping tabs on his spend this time?). Virtually nothing in Brentford Isleworth and lots of Labour boards around Southall. Overall, I find it rather strange that it's the two safe seats (there's no way Zac will lose Richmond) which appear to be more active than the two marginals. Having said that I live in Ealing Acton, and every day the letter box is crammed with election communications (the great majority being from Rupa Huq, the Labour candidate).
Labour London has the lowest certainty to vote (68) while SNP Scotland has the highest (80), and how people will vote also follows same pattern - 79% of Londoners have definitely decided how to vote, while 90% of Scots (and 91% in RoS) know who they will vote for.
With regard to London you also have to wonder how many of the 68% Labour voters are even on the register. It may limit the number of Labour gains although no doubt incumbency will ensure the LDs are 'winning everywhere'
The crucial sub-sample [ 1629 ] is just for England and Wales.
C 36, L 34. If this is anywhere near as correct, a huge number of Tories will go.
In 2010, the Tories had a lead of 11.7%. Therefore, swing = 4.8% - big !
The lead in England and Wales was 10%. The swing in Yougov 4%.
E & W 2010: C 38.76%, L 28.52%
England only: C 39.5%, L 28.07%
I stand corrected. So swing is 4.1%
Based on Yougov , England & Wales weighted sample of 1629, applying UNS with exact swings [ and my own adjustments ]:
C 267 - 3 - 6 = 258
L 279 - 2 + 6 = 283
LD 16 + 8 = 24
PC 3 + 1 = 4
GRN 1 = 1
UKIP 0 + 3 = 3
RES + 1
SPK 1 = 1
add
SNP 48, L 6, LD 3, C 2
Final GB tally: based on Yougov E&W weighted sample of 1629
C 260, L 290, LD 27, PC 4, GRN 1, UKIP 3, SPK 1, SNP 48, RES 1
Another result I have noted. Seats like Ealing Acton, Endfield North, Croydon Central, Harrow East are now near the tipping point.
Guess where the Labour biggies are visiting lately.
BTW, Hampstead & Kilburn should be well clear. There maybe local difficulties !
I
Why do you think the Conservatives will do worse than UNS?
Peter Kellner reckons the swing in Con/Lab marginals is 1% lower than across E & W as a whole.
worth reading what LabourList said about postal votes and the comments. All illegal to write of course.
But York Outer is really just the old Ryedale safe Conservative seat. York itself used to be a lot closer . In 87 the Conservatives held York just. York still surprises me that labour are 50 to 1 on.
This is a disgrace and should be illegal. It's certainly not ethical. Why should I have my local MP elected by random people who have never even visited my constituency?
It's the price you pay for having a non-proportional voting system. People will simply find ways to try and make their vote count.
If latest You Gov is back to 9% for Lib Dems reasonable chance of LD getting 10% on either ICM or Ashcroft (assume they are releasing figures today).Also possibility on ICM that UKIP may be down to 4th place.
In Europe, internet pollster have tended to overstate insurgent parties, while phone pollsters have tended to understate them. This makes me fairly confident that UKIP will poll 12-13%.
With the LibDems, there are a number of both positives and negatives:
+ very high "don't knows" among 2010 voters, similar to conservatives in 1992 + evidence do better in named ballot polls + possibility of tactical voting
- LibDems need to be up weighted in most polls - lowest certainty to vote
I don't know how these interplay, but I'd reckon they just creep into double figures: 10-11%.
Generally I am down on LD prospects, but I think that UKIP and LD percentages are not too far apart, with UKIP supporters like my Dad returning to the Blues and LDs looking to gain some tactical votes from both red and blue depending on the seat. Ladbrokes matchbet of LD to outpoll UKIP at 3.5 seams a reasonable prospect. While betting markets tend to ramp the blues, they ramp the purple peril even more.
Everyone talks up Labour's ground war but don't forget it was in position in 2010. It is not an extra weapon, it is not new. So, their GOTV will not be any better.
Labour's GOTV in 2010 probably saved 20 seats. Just check out the projections at eve of poll.
Yes the Red's GOTV in 2010 was excellent. My point is that it can't get any better. Certainly in SW London (anecdote I accept) they have no-one in Carshalton & Wallington, Sutton & CHeam, Wimbledon, Kingston. No-one at all door knocking. They have given up in Battersea, are less on the ground in Tooting. Croydon they are working hard but their numbers are diminishing. They will only hot Tories as hard as last time, no better.
Why should Labour expend resources door-knocking in Carshalton & Wallington, Sutton & CHeam, , Kingston ? Wimbledon, yes !
Labour did door-knocking in Kingston, in the locals and Euro. You will find Labour will be in the high teens in Kingston & Surbiton.
Interestingly CCHQ are sending us to places to win rather than to defend. Are they confident of success in marginals? Or given up? Certainly,following local Labour on twitter they are dead quiet and bumping into them at council meetings they have lost their arrogance. Is this a sign of victory or defeat? Would love your views. For me Jack W's view is where I am too!
The view in Stockton South is that James Wharton had a massive long campaign. Huge cash spend on expensive leaflets delivered fortnightly at one point by Royal Mail, few local activists but several Road Trip 2015 coachloads brought in to generate some "here are my army" photos.
Then the short campaign started. No more leaflets (just an election address across the constituency plus a few targeted drops in winnable wards only), no more road trip armies, and a few reports from normals that they saw him out leafleting and he wouldn't atop and talk saying he didn't have time. On Saturday as we had our local volunteer force out in droves I drove past the Tories gathering at lunchtime - a dozen of them sent out to knock on a very limited number of doors in pairs.
Its like the short campaign started and his campaign stopped.
A really important result - Stockton South.
It's the kind of MP (Wharton) we want to remove from the HoC. He's a little oink who counts war criminals as part of his circle of friends. Can't wait for May 8th to see the likes of this scum booted out!
Everyone talks up Labour's ground war but don't forget it was in position in 2010. It is not an extra weapon, it is not new. So, their GOTV will not be any better.
Labour's GOTV in 2010 probably saved 20 seats. Just check out the projections at eve of poll.
Surely Labour’s GOTV operation, in England anyway, will be more motivated than in 2010. I think we forget what a mess Labour appeared to be in then.
To be honest I think activist motivation is much the same - "Stop the Tories" was a strong factor for activists in 2010, and "Don't let the Tories carry on" is at about the same level of intensity, neither more nor less. A factor worth considering for constituency punters, though, is the availability of nearby help for either side. Tories in Brighton and Hove, for instance, must be getting help from the Tory redoubts in surrounding rural seats; I'm getting a great deal of help from Labour's Nottingham fortress, in total contrast to 2010, when the seat was mistakenly seen as inevitably doomed.
@FraserNelson: Listening to Miliband on R4, it's clear: Labour would govern vote-by-vote with the SNP, giving Salmond a veto on every Bill it wants passed.
@FraserNelson: Listening to Miliband on R4, it's clear: Labour would govern vote-by-vote with the SNP, giving Salmond a veto on every Bill it wants passed.
Delia Smith has stated that she is voting Labour in order to protect the NHS, always knew she had good taste!
With her and Partridge, Labour have Norwich in the bag.
I fail to see why, at every election campaign, the fact that Eddie Izzard, Jo Brand, Patrick Stewart and Richard Wilson are supporting Labour is somehow presented as "news".
Miliband doing really well against Welsh Tory Humphreys. Miliband is quietly confident and not at all rattled. Idea of a 'balanced plan' gaining traction.
Miliband doing really well against Welsh Tory Humphreys. Miliband is quietly confident and not at all rattled. Idea of a 'balanced plan' gaining traction.
Voters in the area I am in are getting bombarded with leaflets..4 from the Tories in 2 days and 3 from the LibDems. When I asked one of the senior Tory campaign managers why so much bumf he told me it was to negate the LibDem bumf and to stop the average person reading the LibDems lit as they would all be so fed up at the deluge coming through their letterbox. One of the South London LD/Tory marginals..
The Tories have such a positive attitude don't they - we might win here if we can stop people reading our opponents literature!
Delia Smith has stated that she is voting Labour in order to protect the NHS, always knew she had good taste!
With her and Partridge, Labour have Norwich in the bag.
I fail to see why, at every election campaign, the fact that Eddie Izzard, Jo Brand, Patrick Stewart and Richard Wilson are supporting Labour is somehow presented as "news".
I know - Mike or mods - any chance you can have a word? Its doing the site in.
I honestly feel sorry for him and I am yet to be convinced he's actually human.
It's a lovely day outside - go and enjoy yourself with your family - you can leave the copying and pasting for a few hours - no-one is going is to miss it!
R4 Ed pinned down on 'deal with SNP' NO. Conversations with SNP 'I have no plans to...'
Did you overspend? No.
Ed getting shouty and sloganeering......now having OECD quoted at him - is OECD wrong, is OBR wrong...are they all wrong?
They all overspend. Mortgaging the future to pay for today. Until we runa system where last years tax receipts form this years spending and taxes are apportioned annually to compensate/give back then these arguments will run and run. Profligacy is no better than Austerity, the two are indicators of a failed economy,
Amazing how confident Ed Miliband is. Considering he says DC has lost every argument, perhaps he should wonder why he doesn't appear to be winning.
Very interesting how little we've heard from Mandelson, Campbell, even Harman. People who know what it is like to lose and don't want to be associated with it?
I know - Mike or mods - any chance you can have a word? Its doing the site in.
I honestly feel sorry for him and I am yet to be convinced he's actually human.
It's a lovely day outside - go and enjoy yourself with your family - you can leave the copying and pasting for a few hours - no-one is going is to miss it!
One of the few things I definitely dislike is posters trying to get other posters banned.
It is illiberal and ungenerous and contrary to the spirit of a blog like this.
I thought this when Tory posters wanted tim banned, and I think it now when you want Scott’s posts restricted.
Just skip over Scott’s posts if you don’t like them.
1 Tory leaflet 1 Labour leaflet 1 UKIP leaflet 0 LD leaflets (despite bring s 2010 target and 2nd place)
0 door knockers
democracy my arse
I think I have had leaflets from the three main parties plus UKIP, plus the regular Tory and LD newsletters, no door knockers. Almost ran into some Labour canvassers in the street (literally) and we have a Labour poster in town which seems a complete waste of money. And I had a pint with the OMRLP leader but I don't think he's going to beat Boris.
Delia Smith has stated that she is voting Labour in order to protect the NHS, always knew she had good taste!
With her and Partridge, Labour have Norwich in the bag.
I fail to see why, at every election campaign, the fact that Eddie Izzard, Jo Brand, Patrick Stewart and Richard Wilson are supporting Labour is somehow presented as "news".
They'll be wheeling out Baldrick next
And his turnip ....
We can't have malcomg cornering the market on root vegetables and likeminded SNP politicians.
1 Tory leaflet 1 Labour leaflet 1 UKIP leaflet 0 LD leaflets (despite bring s 2010 target and 2nd place)
0 door knockers
democracy my arse
I think I have had leaflets from the three main parties plus UKIP, plus the regular Tory and LD newsletters, no door knockers. Almost ran into some Labour canvassers in the street (literally) and we have a Labour poster in town which seems a complete waste of money. And I had a pint with the OMRLP leader but I don't think he's going to beat Boris.
Isn't that the three main parties and the Lib Dems?
Everyone talks up Labour's ground war but don't forget it was in position in 2010. It is not an extra weapon, it is not new. So, their GOTV will not be any better.
Labour's GOTV in 2010 probably saved 20 seats. Just check out the projections at eve of poll.
Yes the Red's GOTV in 2010 was excellent. My point is that it can't get any better. Certainly in SW London (anecdote I accept) they have no-one in Carshalton & Wallington, Sutton & CHeam, Wimbledon, Kingston. No-one at all door knocking. They have given up in Battersea, are less on the ground in Tooting. Croydon they are working hard but their numbers are diminishing. They will only hot Tories as hard as last time, no better.
Why should Labour expend resources door-knocking in Carshalton & Wallington, Sutton & CHeam, , Kingston ? Wimbledon, yes !
Labour did door-knocking in Kingston, in the locals and Euro. You will find Labour will be in the high teens in Kingston & Surbiton.
Yes, Labour did door knock in Euros in Kingston...not now. I agree, reds are efficient but they have nothing at all in seats they have won in the last 20 years. I am grateful that the dim-wit, scheming, evil f*ckers don't darken my door but I am surprised. Let's hope I never see them again.
If the MP has a boost, they should have been working on behalf of their constituents regardless of party colour. The notion that only one party gets more of a boost for holding a seat for a parliament looks like moonshine.
Mods - is there any way you can offer a facility to look at the site without Scott P's interminable posts. They are seriously beyond the pale, nothing original, endless regurgitating. Every site has its irritating posters of all political shades but this is simply moronic, day in day out. Perhaps the intention is to get rid of non-Tory posters and it might well be working because I am seriously off to UKPR if I have to wade through 50 more sets of his drivel today.
I know - Mike or mods - any chance you can have a word? Its doing the site in.
I honestly feel sorry for him and I am yet to be convinced he's actually human.
It's a lovely day outside - go and enjoy yourself with your family - you can leave the copying and pasting for a few hours - no-one is going is to miss it!
One of the few things I definitely dislike is posters trying to get other posters banned.
It is illiberal and ungenerous and contrary to the spirit of a blog like this.
I thought this when Tory posters wanted tim banned, and I think it now when you want Scott’s posts restricted.
Just skip over Scott’s posts if you don’t like them.
It is NOT about getting someone banned - it's about common sense!
If we all acted like Scott_P and copied and pasted everything from twitter, how many people would read this blog?
My last word as I don't want to divert the excellent thread written by Mike.
If latest You Gov is back to 9% for Lib Dems reasonable chance of LD getting 10% on either ICM or Ashcroft (assume they are releasing figures today).Also possibility on ICM that UKIP may be down to 4th place.
In Europe, internet pollster have tended to overstate insurgent parties, while phone pollsters have tended to understate them. This makes me fairly confident that UKIP will poll 12-13%.
With the LibDems, there are a number of both positives and negatives:
+ very high "don't knows" among 2010 voters, similar to conservatives in 1992 + evidence do better in named ballot polls + possibility of tactical voting
- LibDems need to be up weighted in most polls - lowest certainty to vote
I don't know how these interplay, but I'd reckon they just creep into double figures: 10-11%.
Libs have done very well in all by-elections since 2010. Where they are targeting a seat, they will do well. They think they will win Hornsey Green for example. They will perish in seats where they started 3rd
The old farm derby. Norfolk football sucks so much our local derby is against a team from another county
Who would you tip in the playoffs? I think Middlesborough myself, they have a pretty solid defence, but Norwich over Ipswich I think.
Edit: Leicesters derbys are all with adjacent counties too!
Middlesborough have to be favourites, Brentford also have the hoodoo over Norwich. Ipswich are a dire football team utterly reliant on one striker, I'd like to see them go up so they can come down with under 10 points
Mods - is there any way you can offer a facility to look at the site without Scott P's interminable posts. They are seriously beyond the pale, nothing original, endless regurgitating. Every site has its irritating posters of all political shades but this is simply moronic, day in day out. Perhaps the intention is to get rid of non-Tory posters and it might well be working because I am seriously off to UKPR if I have to wade through 50 more sets of his drivel today.
Quite an ironic comment, given the other comments down thread
Everyone talks up Labour's ground war but don't forget it was in position in 2010. It is not an extra weapon, it is not new. So, their GOTV will not be any better.
Labour's GOTV in 2010 probably saved 20 seats. Just check out the projections at eve of poll.
Yes the Red's GOTV in 2010 was excellent. My point is that it can't get any better. Certainly in SW London (anecdote I accept) they have no-one in Carshalton & Wallington, Sutton & CHeam, Wimbledon, Kingston. No-one at all door knocking. They have given up in Battersea, are less on the ground in Tooting. Croydon they are working hard but their numbers are diminishing. They will only hot Tories as hard as last time, no better.
Why should Labour expend resources door-knocking in Carshalton & Wallington, Sutton & CHeam, , Kingston ? Wimbledon, yes !
Labour did door-knocking in Kingston, in the locals and Euro. You will find Labour will be in the high teens in Kingston & Surbiton.
Yes, Labour did door knock in Euros in Kingston...not now. I agree, reds are efficient but they have nothing at all in seats they have won in the last 20 years. I am grateful that the dim-wit, scheming, evil f*ckers don't darken my door but I am surprised. Let's hope I never see them again.
Miliband getting rather ranty at the end of that......
Well at least Humphrey stopped short again off calling him to ugly to be PM. Maybe that is why the BBC use him as a predominately a radio presenter due to his looks and age.
SNP voting with Conservatives to bring down a Labour government? Has that ever happened before?
1979. The traitors have form.
Would the SNP have done it had they known Margaret Thatcher would hold power for so long. On the other hand without Thatcher they wouldn't have been able to demonise the Tories in Scotland for the last 25 years.
Delia Smith has stated that she is voting Labour in order to protect the NHS, always knew she had good taste!
With her and Partridge, Labour have Norwich in the bag.
I fail to see why, at every election campaign, the fact that Eddie Izzard, Jo Brand, Patrick Stewart and Richard Wilson are supporting Labour is somehow presented as "news".
They'll be wheeling out Baldrick next
Stephen Fry and Hugh Laurie are also fans. Perhaps they put something in your tea when you go to acting school.
I know - Mike or mods - any chance you can have a word? Its doing the site in.
I honestly feel sorry for him and I am yet to be convinced he's actually human.
It's a lovely day outside - go and enjoy yourself with your family - you can leave the copying and pasting for a few hours - no-one is going is to miss it!
One of the few things I definitely dislike is posters trying to get other posters banned.
It is illiberal and ungenerous and contrary to the spirit of a blog like this.
I thought this when Tory posters wanted tim banned, and I think it now when you want Scott’s posts restricted.
Just skip over Scott’s posts if you don’t like them.
It is NOT about getting someone banned - it's about common sense!
If we all acted like Scott_P and copied and pasted everything from twitter, how many people would read this blog?
But we don't all do they same thing. If we all posted left-wing nonsense like you it would be a pretty poor site. People all doing different stuff - and posting different views - adds to the diversity of PB.
In any case, his posts all have ScottP at the top and are usually quite short, so easy to avoid.
The old farm derby. Norfolk football sucks so much our local derby is against a team from another county
Who would you tip in the playoffs? I think Middlesborough myself, they have a pretty solid defence, but Norwich over Ipswich I think.
Edit: Leicesters derbys are all with adjacent counties too!
Middlesborough have to be favourites, Brentford also have the hoodoo over Norwich. Ipswich are a dire football team utterly reliant on one striker, I'd like to see them go up so they can come down with under 10 points
@afneil: Listening to Ed Miliband @BBCr4today it's clear he thinks he can put together a Queen's Speech which SNP will back, without talking to SNP
The problem for the SNP is that having voted Mrs Thatcher into office in 1979, they need to be careful about repeating the trick, especially before the Scottish general election in May 2016. After that date, Sturgeon's gloves can come off but Labour may get a comparatively clear run until then, especially since that same Holyrood election means all parties will be nice to Scotland for a year.
Mods - is there any way you can offer a facility to look at the site without Scott P's interminable posts. They are seriously beyond the pale, nothing original, endless regurgitating. Every site has its irritating posters of all political shades but this is simply moronic, day in day out. Perhaps the intention is to get rid of non-Tory posters and it might well be working because I am seriously off to UKPR if I have to wade through 50 more sets of his drivel today.
You already have that facility - Skip his posts if you don't like them.
Delia Smith has stated that she is voting Labour in order to protect the NHS, always knew she had good taste!
With her and Partridge, Labour have Norwich in the bag.
I fail to see why, at every election campaign, the fact that Eddie Izzard, Jo Brand, Patrick Stewart and Richard Wilson are supporting Labour is somehow presented as "news".
They'll be wheeling out Baldrick next
Stephen Fry and Hugh Laurie are also fans. Perhaps they put something in your tea when you go to acting school.
As are Sean Pertwee and Martin Freeman
Edit - the Tories have Adam Ricketts and William Roache though
I know - Mike or mods - any chance you can have a word? Its doing the site in.
I honestly feel sorry for him and I am yet to be convinced he's actually human.
It's a lovely day outside - go and enjoy yourself with your family - you can leave the copying and pasting for a few hours - no-one is going is to miss it!
One of the few things I definitely dislike is posters trying to get other posters banned.
It is illiberal and ungenerous and contrary to the spirit of a blog like this.
I thought this when Tory posters wanted tim banned, and I think it now when you want Scott’s posts restricted.
Just skip over Scott’s posts if you don’t like them.
It is NOT about getting someone banned - it's about common sense!
If we all acted like Scott_P and copied and pasted everything from twitter, how many people would read this blog?
Scott is not copying and pasting “everything from twitter”.
You don’t do your argument any favours by exaggerating.
Nobody reads every posting on a blog. There are some posters whose views I value (on all sides of the spectrum). I read their posts. There are some posters who post complete nonsense. I skip their posts.
If we all appealed to the mods over posters we don’t like, their life would be miserable.
The old farm derby. Norfolk football sucks so much our local derby is against a team from another county
Who would you tip in the playoffs? I think Middlesborough myself, they have a pretty solid defence, but Norwich over Ipswich I think.
Edit: Leicesters derbys are all with adjacent counties too!
Middlesborough have to be favourites, Brentford also have the hoodoo over Norwich. Ipswich are a dire football team utterly reliant on one striker, I'd like to see them go up so they can come down with under 10 points
Chaps, it's Middlesbrough - not borough. Looks like they might pass one of the north east teams going the other way!
Mods - is there any way you can offer a facility to look at the site without Scott P's interminable posts. They are seriously beyond the pale, nothing original, endless regurgitating. Every site has its irritating posters of all political shades but this is simply moronic, day in day out. Perhaps the intention is to get rid of non-Tory posters and it might well be working because I am seriously off to UKPR if I have to wade through 50 more sets of his drivel today.
You already have that facility - Skip his posts if you don't like them.
Is there a facility to replace certain people's posts with emanations from your ARSE?
Comments
The SNP need a Conservative UK Government .
You do to , so you can vote for a center right government in an Independent Scotland.
It suits you to stir English Nationalism.
You do not say this though, to your anti austerity supporters, with their love in for Nicola.
You really are a trojan horse, for any Scottish left wing supporters
Yes the Red's GOTV in 2010 was excellent. My point is that it can't get any better. Certainly in SW London (anecdote I accept) they have no-one in Carshalton & Wallington, Sutton & CHeam, Wimbledon, Kingston. No-one at all door knocking. They have given up in Battersea, are less on the ground in Tooting. Croydon they are working hard but their numbers are diminishing. They will only hot Tories as hard as last time, no better.
There is much chat about people bettting with their 'hearts, not their heads'. If you talk to the SPIN (or Spreadex) traders, you will find that is no longer accurate. Punters bet on what they think that will happen, not what they want to happen. There are just as many sellers of England runs as buyers. 'Total goals' in a match has nearly as many sellers as buyers, even though everybody wants to see goals. The old, safe view was 'all the canny boys are sellers, the gamblers are buyers' is no longer true. The enthusiastic buyers have mostly 'retired hurt'.
The above is even more true with Betfair (the exception is that India's cricket team is always overbacked with 'sympathy money').
The weight of money is clearly not always right. But on Betfair expecially, it is an extremely accurate snapshot of the current likelihood of an event occurring.
I repeat [ purely based on England & Wales: Yougov weighted sample of 1629 which gives:
C 36, L 34, LD 9, UKIP 13, GRN 5. ]
Initial swings results
C 273, L 279, LD 16, PC 3, GRN 1, SPK 1.
To the above, my adjustments are:
UKIP + 3, C -3. LD +8, C -6, L -2, PC + 1, L -1
This gives: C 264, L 276, LD 24, PC 4, GRN 1, SPK 1. UKIP 3
add Scotland: SNP 48, L 6, LD 3, C 2
Final tally: C 266, L 282, LD 27, PC 4, GRN 1, SPK 1. SNP 48 UKIP 3. Total 632.
This is based on one poll only.
With the LibDems, there are a number of both positives and negatives:
+ very high "don't knows" among 2010 voters, similar to conservatives in 1992
+ evidence do better in named ballot polls
+ possibility of tactical voting
- LibDems need to be up weighted in most polls
- lowest certainty to vote
I don't know how these interplay, but I'd reckon they just creep into double figures: 10-11%.
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/595127665117499392/photo/1
Con: 278
Lab: 265
SNP: 53
LibD: 27
But York Outer is really just the old Ryedale safe Conservative seat.
York itself used to be a lot closer .
In 87 the Conservatives held York just.
York still surprises me that labour are 50 to 1 on.
1 Tory leaflet
1 Labour leaflet
1 UKIP leaflet
0 LD leaflets (despite bring s 2010 target and 2nd place)
0 door knockers
democracy my arse
Labour did door-knocking in Kingston, in the locals and Euro. You will find Labour will be in the high teens in Kingston & Surbiton.
It's the kind of MP (Wharton) we want to remove from the HoC. He's a little oink who counts war criminals as part of his circle of friends. Can't wait for May 8th to see the likes of this scum booted out!
4 LD
1 Labour
2 UKIP
1 Tory
0 door knockers
Celebrity endorsements change nothing.
Yeah, come on Scottish left wing supporters, vote for anti austerity, anti Trident, anti foreign wars, pro immigration Labour.
@alstewitn: #GE2015 @Ed_Miliband 'We're not going to have an arrangement with @theSNP'.
@FraserNelson: Remember: SNP will vote for Labour Queens' Speech regardless. Salmond wants Miliband in No10 in the same way that a spider wants a fly.
Pigs fly etc.
I know - Mike or mods - any chance you can have a word? Its doing the site in.
Whereas JackW .... well enough said ....
Did you overspend? No.
Ed getting shouty and sloganeering......now having OECD quoted at him - is OECD wrong, is OBR wrong...are they all wrong?
Have a pleasant morning everyone.
Let him who is without sin cast the first stone.
We would just need a deal with them and the law goes through.
One Lib Dem leaflet weeks ago, one Tory and one Green. Nothing from the kippers or from the traitors
It's a lovely day outside - go and enjoy yourself with your family - you can leave the copying and pasting for a few hours - no-one is going is to miss it!
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2009/jun/01/nhs-health
Safe in whose hands??
The real interest in East Anglia will be on this event between the blues and yellows on Saturday:
http://m.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/championship/fixtures
Mods really need to think about it - it's ruining the site....
In 2010, Ben Page said it would be a hung parliament. His figures said so. He changed his mind because he did not want to be out on a limb.
I just looked at Yougov Politics page.
Nowcast says Lab 276, Con 272, SNP 52, LDP 24. Not a million miles from my projections based on UNS.
But Kellner, of course, does not either believe his own figures or wants to be safe-first.
So, he says: Lab 261, Con 283, SNP 50, LDP 32.
What is the basis of this projection ? Because Kellner is an expert. So, he wants to be part of the herd.
This time the LD bubble is going to burst. They are even more toxic than the Tories because of Clegg. Clegg is radio-active !
I had one Lib Dem door knocker reminding me that there is a local election on the same day.
He admitted that they had no chance in the GE.
Very interesting how little we've heard from Mandelson, Campbell, even Harman. People who know what it is like to lose and don't want to be associated with it?
It is illiberal and ungenerous and contrary to the spirit of a blog like this.
I thought this when Tory posters wanted tim banned, and I think it now when you want Scott’s posts restricted.
Just skip over Scott’s posts if you don’t like them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JIGjUPwYU94
We can't have malcomg cornering the market on root vegetables and likeminded SNP politicians.
http://www.sunnation.co.uk/exposed-the-25-mps-with-the-worst-attendance-records/
Edit: Leicesters derbys are all with adjacent counties too!
The secret is, Andrew, do not have anything the SNP disagrees with vehemently. 9/10 points, the SNP and Labour agrees anyway.
If the MP has a boost, they should have been working on behalf of their constituents regardless of party colour. The notion that only one party gets more of a boost for holding a seat for a parliament looks like moonshine.
If we all acted like Scott_P and copied and pasted everything from twitter, how many people would read this blog?
My last word as I don't want to divert the excellent thread written by Mike.
5 Con
2 Lab
1 Lib
1 Grn
3 UKIP
2 Ind
3 Residents Grp.
(some of these may have been for the similarly super-safe council seat elections.)
Ah .... you mean the Ipswich "Tractors Boys" ....
Maybe that is why the BBC use him as a predominately a radio presenter due to his looks and age.
In any case, his posts all have ScottP at the top and are usually quite short, so easy to avoid.
Edit - the Tories have Adam Ricketts and William Roache though
You don’t do your argument any favours by exaggerating.
Nobody reads every posting on a blog. There are some posters whose views I value (on all sides of the spectrum). I read their posts. There are some posters who post complete nonsense. I skip their posts.
If we all appealed to the mods over posters we don’t like, their life would be miserable.