Here is the safe Tory seat of Wimbledon, Labour and LD activity is high. I would have thought the LD vote would collapse and coalesce around Labour but it seems to be holding firm. It's highly unlikely that Wimbledon will fall and the split opposition helps the Tories but I'm counting on the Tory majority to be slashed substantially.
Those in charge of the initial problem is Blair and how he let the grassroots die up there. The reason why Miliband isn't taking - and won't take the flak for it - is because the solution is the EXACT opposite of what his critics have been suggesting.
Talking more about the deficit would not have saved Scotland!
? Scottish politicians gave us the deficit. This is hardly a good omen for giving 50 more of them another chance. Which party they belong to is irrelevant.
In theory, but most voters have no idea who their MP is. If all you had tho go on, on the ballot form was the candidates name they would be unable to identify who they actually wanted to support.
Not necessarily as an individual: they may think that whoever Labour puts forward will best represent their interests.
But that's totally different to someone from Witney directing the vote of someone in Eastleigh. The Witney individual might be quite happy with a Tory, but is likely to have no understanding of specific issues pertaining to Eastleigh.
Surely that's just the Eastleigh person choosing to have their vote determined in this way. If there was a local consideration that overwhelmed their usual preference, surely they would choose not to take part in the arrabgement.
Labour vote will get out in the marginals alright...On Thursday,the canvassing say starts at 5 AM with leafletting known Labour voters to remind them there`s an election and subsequently gets busy after 4 to check if they have voted.
I think that if I had a bunch of idiots waking me up by noisily poking leaflets through my letterbox at 5.00 am, that would go a long way towards convincing me to vote for the other side!
The leafletting will start at 6 AM after preparations.And it`s known supporters rather than undecideds.
Hmmmmm. Are you targeting particular known supporters? Surely most of them don't need a leaflet on election day to tell them to vote? Suggests your own voters are apathetic?
FWIW Metcheck is forecasting heavy rain and thunderstorms over most of England & Wales from early evening tonight until early Wednesday morning. Just as well the GE isn't being held tomorrow!
Here is the safe Tory seat of Wimbledon, Labour and LD activity is high. I would have thought the LD vote would collapse and coalesce around Labour but it seems to be holding firm. It's highly unlikely that Wimbledon will fall and the split opposition helps the Tories but I'm counting on the Tory majority to be slashed substantially.
If Labour wins Wimbledon we would be in for a thumping Labour majority.
Labour vote will get out in the marginals alright...On Thursday,the canvassing say starts at 5 AM with leafletting known Labour voters to remind them there`s an election and subsequently gets busy after 4 to check if they have voted.
I think that if I had a bunch of idiots waking me up by noisily poking leaflets through my letterbox at 5.00 am, that would go a long way towards convincing me to vote for the other side!
The leafletting will start at 6 AM after preparations.And it`s known supporters rather than undecideds.
Hmmmmm. Are you targeting particular known supporters? Surely most of them don't need a leaflet on election day to tell them to vote? Suggests your own voters are apathetic?
Otherwise known as preaching to the converted .... how boring.
Morning all. I live in a relatively safe Labour seat and I have had a leaflet from Labour, Conservative, Lib Dem, UKIP and an independent. No door knocking. For the local elections my ward is all Conservative, albeit last year one Conservative just scraped in against the Labour challenger. In the locals I have only had a Labour leaflet, although I seem to remember the Conservative Parliamentary leaflet had some mention of the councillors.
Thinking forward to May 8th, if the Con-Lib coalition was able to stay on what are people's views about how many roles the Lib Dems will get? Surely they cannot have as many Minister proportionally as they had before if their MP figure collapses? Will there only be two Lib Dem cabinet positions (excluding Clegg) rather than three? I would imagine some Conservative backbenchers would fume of the Lib Dems had as substantial a role than previously with fewer voters?
Labour vote will get out in the marginals alright...On Thursday,the canvassing say starts at 5 AM with leafletting known Labour voters to remind them there`s an election and subsequently gets busy after 4 to check if they have voted.
I think that if I had a bunch of idiots waking me up by noisily poking leaflets through my letterbox at 5.00 am, that would go a long way towards convincing me to vote for the other side!
The leafletting will start at 6 AM after preparations.And it`s known supporters rather than undecideds.
Hmmmmm. Are you targeting particular known supporters? Surely most of them don't need a leaflet on election day to tell them to vote? Suggests your own voters are apathetic?
This is brilliant. It should be propagated in a big way until PR is introduced.
So the fact that the people voted to retain FPTP means you should do an end round around their wishes?
With the utmost respect, they voted against AV, not for FPTP. I voted no, for example, but would have voted yes if the referendum had been for a more proportionate voting system.
They voted to keep the current system in a forced choice between two flawed options.
But if you don't like the answer, campaign for change and persuade people to adopt a new system. Just because you don't like the law of the land, you don't have the right to corrupt its intended purpose.
I don't think vote swapping is corrupting the purpose of the electoral system. Voters have an absolute right to vote as they please, for any reason other than pecuniary gain.
Technically it's "value" not "pecuniary value" which could make a difference.
But I come from the position that the intention of the system is to allow local people to select their local representative. It's not to achieve a proportional response, or to ensure majoritarian government or anything else that people ascribe to it.
Vote swapping undermines the right of local people to select their local representative. (Yes, I know that technically it is a local representative casting their vote, but they are doing it under instruction from an outside party with their primary intention being influencing the outcome in another constituency rather than selecting their local representative)
It's actually even worse than you're making out. I understand that outrageously, some votes abuse the system to try to affect who becomes Prime Minister.
Voters don't vote for a Prime Minister.
They vote for a local MP to represent their interests in Parliament.
That statement is only technically true.
Isnt "technically true" the best kind of true?
In practice people will often vote for the party the person represents.
Hence the "red/blue rosette on a donkey" type seats.
Con lead is now 24 from 28 after QT. This large lead is mostly Tory money driven. I believe it exaggerates Tory lead by 10. So, it is 279 - 275 mid spread.
Labour vote will get out in the marginals alright...On Thursday,the canvassing say starts at 5 AM with leafletting known Labour voters to remind them there`s an election and subsequently gets busy after 4 to check if they have voted.
I think that if I had a bunch of idiots waking me up by noisily poking leaflets through my letterbox at 5.00 am, that would go a long way towards convincing me to vote for the other side!
The leafletting will start at 6 AM after preparations.And it`s known supporters rather than undecideds.
Hmmmmm. Are you targeting particular known supporters? Surely most of them don't need a leaflet on election day to tell them to vote? Suggests your own voters are apathetic?
Labour voters need constant reminding. Sometimes even an afternoon round of leafleting before knocking on doors.
This is brilliant. It should be propagated in a big way until PR is introduced.
So the fact that the people voted to retain FPTP means you should do an end round around their wishes?
With the utmost respect, they voted against AV, not for FPTP. I voted no, for example, but would have voted yes if the referendum had been for a more proportionate voting system.
They voted to keep the current system in a forced choice between two flawed options.
But if you don't like the answer, campaign for change and persuade people to adopt a new system. Just because you don't like the law of the land, you don't have the right to corrupt its intended purpose.
I don't think vote swapping is corrupting the purpose of the electoral system. Voters have an absolute right to vote as they please, for any reason other than pecuniary gain.
Technically it's "value" not "pecuniary value" which could make a difference.
But I come from the position that the intention of the system is to allow local people to select their local representative. It's not to achieve a proportional response, or to ensure majoritarian government or anything else that people ascribe to it.
Vote swapping undermines the right of local people to select their local representative. (Yes, I know that technically it is a local representative casting their vote, but they are doing it under instruction from an outside party with their primary intention being influencing the outcome in another constituency rather than selecting their local representative)
Stop moaning, and campaign for an honest system where such incentives don't arise.
I'm not moaning about the system. I'd prefer MM STV, but FPTP is ok as a second choice.
I just think people shouldn't try to subvert the rules.
As is well known, the "Rules" of FPTP include the strong incentive to misrepresent your preference.
Hell No! Like you say the problem started a long long time ago and over a long period. Scottish Labour are frigging useless. The only chance we have of getting anything is because we have sent resources and sensible ideas up from England.
What I can't fathom is why Brown, Murphy, Darling, Alexander etc - all SLAB members living in Scotland had failed to spot the mess SLAB was in. When even now SLAB refuses to disclose the number of members in Scotland, that speaks volumes about the zombie party they have become, particularly as Labour made such a fuss about hitting the 200,000 mark.
The fact that London Labour/MSM put all their faith in Jim Murphy, John Mc, Blair Mc - shows a complete lack of understanding of Scotland. The last thing Scotland needed was McMurphyism - a tired old version of Blairism.
You talk knowledgably about resources and sensible ideas from London, please tell us more, I've seen no evidence of either and I'm one of Jim's fabled 190,381.
Just to say that I entirely agree with Charles on "vote swapping", I consider it to be a malign development of the fairly common practice of dropping particularly favoured candidates into safe seats.
Maybe we should chuck out entirely having local candidates, just vote nationally or regionally, for a party, and then take whomever we're given locally in some manner?
In theory, but most voters have no idea who their MP is. If all you had tho go on, on the ballot form was the candidates name they would be unable to identify who they actually wanted to support.
Not necessarily as an individual: they may think that whoever Labour puts forward will best represent their interests.
But that's totally different to someone from Witney directing the vote of someone in Eastleigh. The Witney individual might be quite happy with a Tory, but is likely to have no understanding of specific issues pertaining to Eastleigh.
Surely that's just the Eastleigh person choosing to have their vote determined in this way. If there was a local consideration that overwhelmed their usual preference, surely they would choose not to take part in the arrabgement.
Not really: they are deciding that they don't like the rules of the game, so they will subvert the intention of a constituency based system.
Here is the safe Tory seat of Wimbledon, Labour and LD activity is high. I would have thought the LD vote would collapse and coalesce around Labour but it seems to be holding firm. It's highly unlikely that Wimbledon will fall and the split opposition helps the Tories but I'm counting on the Tory majority to be slashed substantially.
I think there is another active campaign going on, alongside the main one. That is to get or retain second place where there is no hope of a first place.
This applies particularly to LD and UKIP. It gives them a platform for the next election. Over time, it enables a smaller party to overcome the barrier of FPTP by concentrating their vote in a smallish number of seats. It starts by getting second place (and local council representation) to overcome the wasted vote argument and enable the argument that only [we] can beat the [bugbear]. It takes many years and several elections to bear fruit.
It probably explains the LD activity in Wimbledon (and Richmond Park). No hope of first place but essential LDs retain second place.
Couple of things. What Labour needs at the moment is an orginisational effort to save as many seats as possible. this is something that murphy can at least do. But on your substantive point yeah the politics of those guys is not what Scotland needs - although they have changed...
The reason why Brown et al missed it is because they are from a different generation. They couldn't conceive of a de aligned electorate that required an active membership to get the votes out. To have an active membership they need respect and ownership - something the old stitch up merchants never had any interest in.
In England and Wales we have been able to do something about it just about in time - as will be illustrated by our gains south of the border. Do we need to improve south of the border still.. yes. The rise of UKIP shows that we have our own threat down here - but fortunately the party has learned the lessons of Scotland.
In theory, but most voters have no idea who their MP is. If all you had tho go on, on the ballot form was the candidates name they would be unable to identify who they actually wanted to support.
Not necessarily as an individual: they may think that whoever Labour puts forward will best represent their interests.
But that's totally different to someone from Witney directing the vote of someone in Eastleigh. The Witney individual might be quite happy with a Tory, but is likely to have no understanding of specific issues pertaining to Eastleigh.
Surely that's just the Eastleigh person choosing to have their vote determined in this way. If there was a local consideration that overwhelmed their usual preference, surely they would choose not to take part in the arrabgement.
Not really: they are deciding that they don't like the rules of the game, so they will subvert the intention of a constituency based system.
Rosa Parks didn't like the rules of the game either.
Protest is a legitimate means of bringing about change.
He's not winning, he is unlikely to have an overall majority. And even if he is the leader of the largest party, we were firmly informed by the Labour supporters on here in 2010 that that is not called "winning".
Yes, it'll be interesting to see if Labour supporters call Miliband an election winner on Friday morning. If they do then I suppose they'll have to think of Cameron in 2010 as one too. But at least they'll be able to reinstate Wilson as the four-time election winner that he was generally considered to be prior to May 2010.
Nail on head. I said a few days ago that the left wing have always claimed for 5 years the coalition and in particular Cameron as PM were illegitimate as "He did not win". Yet in a heartbeat when they are looking at a similar situation for a Labour leader everything is all roses in the No 10 garden (including a great big limestone)
Labour and left wing hypocrisy personified. Don't do as I do but as I say.
Ed Miliband claimed in 2010 that Brown should remain in power as he was the incumbent. Now he wants to take legal action when the boot is on the other foot - yet more hypocrisy from Labour.
In theory, but most voters have no idea who their MP is. If all you had tho go on, on the ballot form was the candidates name they would be unable to identify who they actually wanted to support.
Not necessarily as an individual: they may think that whoever Labour puts forward will best represent their interests.
But that's totally different to someone from Witney directing the vote of someone in Eastleigh. The Witney individual might be quite happy with a Tory, but is likely to have no understanding of specific issues pertaining to Eastleigh.
Surely that's just the Eastleigh person choosing to have their vote determined in this way. If there was a local consideration that overwhelmed their usual preference, surely they would choose not to take part in the arrabgement.
Not really: they are deciding that they don't like the rules of the game, so they will subvert the intention of a constituency based system.
Correct. Good for them. It is not quite civil disobedience. More like civil subversion.
If latest You Gov is back to 9% for Lib Dems reasonable chance of LD getting 10% on either ICM or Ashcroft (assume they are releasing figures today).Also possibility on ICM that UKIP may be down to 4th place.
In Europe, internet pollster have tended to overstate insurgent parties, while phone pollsters have tended to understate them. This makes me fairly confident that UKIP will poll 12-13%.
...
With the Euros there was a single issue election and the 'insurgents' were not deciding who runs the country. Should we be surprised it was understated??
I was referring to elections in Europe, rather than the Euros.
Con lead is now 24 from 28 after QT. This large lead is mostly Tory money driven. I believe it exaggerates Tory lead by 10. So, it is 279 - 275 mid spread.
Labour vote will get out in the marginals alright...On Thursday,the canvassing say starts at 5 AM with leafletting known Labour voters to remind them there`s an election and subsequently gets busy after 4 to check if they have voted.
I think that if I had a bunch of idiots waking me up by noisily poking leaflets through my letterbox at 5.00 am, that would go a long way towards convincing me to vote for the other side!
The leafletting will start at 6 AM after preparations.And it`s known supporters rather than undecideds.
Hmmmmm. Are you targeting particular known supporters? Surely most of them don't need a leaflet on election day to tell them to vote? Suggests your own voters are apathetic?
Labour voters need constant reminding. Sometimes even an afternoon round of leafleting before knocking on doors.
Just me finds this post astonishing? Rabid labour cheerleader calls his supporters too stupid to vote unless reminded on the day. Beyond belief.
In the medium term, it seems to me that SNP might prefer a Tory government to advance their independence aims and Ukip one to advance their referendum aim.
In 1975, I was a Labour voter and like most, I was very keen on what was then the Common Market. The only nay-sayers, the fruitcakes and loons of the period, were the left wingers like Tony Benn. But even I was embarrassed by the one-sided nature of the argument. When the argument about political union came up, it was, as General Melchett would say, poo-pooed.
Despite Nick P protestations, it was never put to the people. I was not a political activist, but I did follow it closely, more so than many of my contemporaries.
The Common Market has evolved into a drive for political union. If that's what the British people want ... fine. But given the nature of the discussions 40 years ago, I seriously doubt that a 2017 referendum will be any different, both in nature and result. We will have the same media consensus and the only difference will be that the "loons" will wear a different rosette.
I was happy with the result in 1975, just uneasy about the way it was steamrollered into being.
The EU has a lot of plusses but I've been to European meetings in Brussels (albeit on the scientific side) and have also seem the politicking and the nonsense. It needs reform. I fear that it won't happen for the same reason that a balanced discussion will never ensue.
This is brilliant. It should be propagated in a big way until PR is introduced.
So the fact that the people voted to retain FPTP means you should do an end round around their wishes?
With the utmost respect, they voted against AV, not for FPTP. I voted no, for example, but would have voted yes if the referendum had been for a more proportionate voting system.
They voted to keep the current system in a forced choice between two flawed options.
But if you don't like the answer, campaign for change and persuade people to adopt a new system. Just because you don't like the law of the land, you don't have the right to corrupt its intended purpose.
I don't think vote swapping is corrupting the purpose of the electoral system. Voters have an absolute right to vote as they please, for any reason other than pecuniary gain.
Technically it's "value" not "pecuniary value" which could make a difference.
But I come from the position that the intention of the system is to allow local people to select their local representative. It's not to achieve a proportional response, or to ensure majoritarian government or anything else that people ascribe to it.
Vote swapping undermines the right of local people to select their local representative. (Yes, I know that technically it is a local representative casting their vote, but they are doing it under instruction from an outside party with their primary intention being influencing the outcome in another constituency rather than selecting their local representative)
Stop moaning, and campaign for an honest system where such incentives don't arise.
Well said Rod.
Shame the Lib Dems do not have this as a red line PR.
Would be nice to have every vote count, rather than current system.
Further to this candidate/party/pm question - interesting that Clegg's Labour opponent is very much 'candidate' (have to search for 'Labour, zero Miliband) - and in Someron & Frome, the Tory hopeful is very much campaigning as the local boy:
Taking a leaf from his opponents’ book, like the Lib Dems he campaigns heavily strongly on local issues, presenting himself as a constituency champion. The Conservative Party itself barely gets a look-in on his campaign literature. As Mr Warburton himself argues, “I hope the voters will put me before the party.” Polls suggest they will.
Con lead is now 24 from 28 after QT. This large lead is mostly Tory money driven. I believe it exaggerates Tory lead by 10. So, it is 279 - 275 mid spread.
Labour vote will get out in the marginals alright...On Thursday,the canvassing say starts at 5 AM with leafletting known Labour voters to remind them there`s an election and subsequently gets busy after 4 to check if they have voted.
I think that if I had a bunch of idiots waking me up by noisily poking leaflets through my letterbox at 5.00 am, that would go a long way towards convincing me to vote for the other side!
The leafletting will start at 6 AM after preparations.And it`s known supporters rather than undecideds.
Hmmmmm. Are you targeting particular known supporters? Surely most of them don't need a leaflet on election day to tell them to vote? Suggests your own voters are apathetic?
Labour voters need constant reminding. Sometimes even an afternoon round of leafleting before knocking on doors.
Just me finds this post astonishing? Rabid labour cheerleader calls his supporters too stupid to vote unless reminded on the day. Beyond belief.
Not astonishing from Surby - after all he too is a Labour supporter. and he claims to know the political allegiance of betters on Spin
If Ed is 20 seats behind Cameron on Thursday morning, I do believe senior figures will move against him.
Who ?
Like they're going to say it publicly....
Its a Times story - the Grauniad has an excerpt:
Allies of Mr Miliband insist that he would have the right to enter No 10 if he mustered the support of more than half the 650 MPs in the Commons, even if this meant relying on the Nationalists ...
Others, including some members of the shadow cabinet, are privately worried about this outcome. One Labour frontbencher said: “If we come second and try and cling on, [everyone else] will kill us. Mr Cameron would say — not unreasonably — that he’s won and he’d be right. I don’t think that the country will forgive us if we have effectively lost the election but say we’re going into government. If the mandate for governing relies almost exclusively on the SNP, we should quit trying because we will have failed to convince the electorate, and seek a new leader.”
Apologies if I have misunderstood but a replica ballot poll of 2100 people that covers 632 constituencies averages just over 3 people per constituency, surely that is hardly likely to pick up any incumbency factor??
That occurred to me, as well. A named ballot paper would be really useful for single constituency polls. I don't see what it adds to a national poll.
Indeed. The crucial thing is *where* the changes are taking place.
Carlotta - so they couldn't even get a member of the cabinet.
For what its worth - and I don't know why I bother trying tot talk to people about internal Labour stuff on this site as you all never listen - MPs have woken up over the last 7 years to the importance and power of members.
The members will want Ed to stay and they will shut up if they were to even raise their voices.
Carlotta - so they couldn't even get a member of the cabinet.
For what its worth - and I don't know why I bother trying tot talk to people about internal Labour stuff on this site as you all never listen - MPs have woken up over the last 7 years to the importance and power of members.
The members will want Ed to stay and they will shut up if they were to even raise their voices.
There will be no question of any moves against Ed. No MP will be stupid enough to do that.
Carlotta - so they couldn't even get a member of the cabinet.
For what its worth - and I don't know why I bother trying tot talk to people about internal Labour stuff on this site as you all never listen - MPs have woken up over the last 7 years to the importance and power of members.
The members will want Ed to stay and they will shut up if they were to even raise their voices.
There will be no question of any moves against Ed. No MP will be stupid enough to do that.
The police were informed, and decided not to charge Garvie, but did give him "strong words of advice regarding his conduct."
Labour are probably quietly glad Garvie has no real chance of being elected. If he were standing in a marginal, his behaviour could make a difference to the final seat tally, and it might get more attention.
Obviously, this isn't a major story, but we can expect some unusual voting patterns in Wellingborough, and possibly some records. It'll be the only seat in the mainland UK where Labour officially get zero votes (Garvie has been suspended by Labour, so is nominally independent) and it might see the highest swing to the Conservatives as a result.
Carlotta - so they couldn't even get a member of the cabinet.
For what its worth - and I don't know why I bother trying tot talk to people about internal Labour stuff on this site as you all never listen - MPs have woken up over the last 7 years to the importance and power of members.
The members will want Ed to stay and they will shut up if they were to even raise their voices.
'including some members of the shadow cabinet, are privately worried about this outcome. One Labour frontbencher said: “If we come second and try and cling on, [everyone else] will kill us. Mr Cameron would say — not unreasonably — that he’s won and he’d be right. I don’t think that the country will forgive us'.
The members will want Ed to stay? Nice one. He has no natural support base in the party and I've yet to hear a Labour member stand up for him.
I wonder whether in the end the only workable government is going to be some kind of grand coalition. There will quickly be enormous pressure on both main parties to form a stable government, but in order for that to happen party ties are going to have to be loosened. I could foresee some agreement being reached between Cameroons, Blairites and LDs to form a government, and they would probably all welcome an opportunity to freeze out the euro-loons and austerity-deniers wherever they sit.
Just to say that I entirely agree with Charles on "vote swapping", I consider it to be a malign development of the fairly common practice of dropping particularly favoured candidates into safe seats.
Maybe we should chuck out entirely having local candidates, just vote nationally or regionally, for a party, and then take whomever we're given locally in some manner?
Morning all. I live in a relatively safe Labour seat and I have had a leaflet from Labour, Conservative, Lib Dem, UKIP and an independent. No door knocking. For the local elections my ward is all Conservative, albeit last year one Conservative just scraped in against the Labour challenger. In the locals I have only had a Labour leaflet, although I seem to remember the Conservative Parliamentary leaflet had some mention of the councillors.
Thinking forward to May 8th, if the Con-Lib coalition was able to stay on what are people's views about how many roles the Lib Dems will get? Surely they cannot have as many Minister proportionally as they had before if their MP figure collapses? Will there only be two Lib Dem cabinet positions (excluding Clegg) rather than three? I would imagine some Conservative backbenchers would fume of the Lib Dems had as substantial a role than previously with fewer voters?
What choice would the Tories have ? Either accept the LD votes and demands or go it alone.
Carlotta - so they couldn't even get a member of the cabinet.
For what its worth - and I don't know why I bother trying tot talk to people about internal Labour stuff on this site as you all never listen - MPs have woken up over the last 7 years to the importance and power of members.
The members will want Ed to stay and they will shut up if they were to even raise their voices.
'including some members of the shadow cabinet, are privately worried about this outcome. One Labour frontbencher said: “If we come second and try and cling on, [everyone else] will kill us. Mr Cameron would say — not unreasonably — that he’s won and he’d be right. I don’t think that the country will forgive us'.
The members will want Ed to stay? Nice one. He has no natural support base in the party and I've yet to hear a Labour member stand up for him.
What stupid comments to the Graun by that Labour frontbencher. I understand the difficulty for Miliband if he's behind on votes and seats but to suggest Cameron would have 'won' would be absurd. Governing in Britain is about commanding a majority in the House of Commons. If a PM can't do that it would be astonishing to think he had won.
No doubt there are some Tories who will want to rewrite the British constitution by claiming legitimacy as the largest party in Parliament. The biggest worry for Labour is surely a Blairite fifth column who want Cameron in No.10.
The police were informed, and decided not to charge Garvie, but did give him "strong words of advice regarding his conduct."
Labour are probably quietly glad Garvie has no real chance of being elected. If he were standing in a marginal, his behaviour could make a difference to the final seat tally, and it might get more attention.
Obviously, this isn't a major story, but we can expect some unusual voting patterns in Wellingborough, and possibly some records. It'll be the only seat in the mainland UK where Labour officially get zero votes (Garvie has been suspended by Labour, so is nominally independent) and it might see the highest swing to the Conservatives as a result.
This is a matter for the local press, Labour party, the girl, the MP and her Dad - but not the police.
Carlotta - so they couldn't even get a member of the cabinet.
For what its worth - and I don't know why I bother trying tot talk to people about internal Labour stuff on this site as you all never listen - MPs have woken up over the last 7 years to the importance and power of members.
The members will want Ed to stay and they will shut up if they were to even raise their voices.
There will be no question of any moves against Ed. No MP will be stupid enough to do that.
Even if he wins less than 2010?
The Labour party does not remove a Prime Minister. The Labour Party has never removed a Leader.
Carlotta - so they couldn't even get a member of the cabinet.
For what its worth - and I don't know why I bother trying tot talk to people about internal Labour stuff on this site as you all never listen - MPs have woken up over the last 7 years to the importance and power of members.
The members will want Ed to stay and they will shut up if they were to even raise their voices.
'including some members of the shadow cabinet, are privately worried about this outcome. One Labour frontbencher said: “If we come second and try and cling on, [everyone else] will kill us. Mr Cameron would say — not unreasonably — that he’s won and he’d be right. I don’t think that the country will forgive us'.
The members will want Ed to stay? Nice one. He has no natural support base in the party and I've yet to hear a Labour member stand up for him.
I am a member and the ST story is 100% made up..
1/~15 defending EM, I suppose that's a start. I doubt it, there are plenty who would want him gone - my money is on Chuka being the one who made those comments.
The worst part about the anecdote regarding the Labour voters having to be reminded several times to vote is that I can believe it is true.
And the best part, for the blues, is that this election was always going to be decided on Lab turning out or not, rather than all this clever stuff about what 2010 LD switchers are doing in the Ashcroft marginals.
I can't help detecting a touch of recency bias in Surbiton's views. I suspect Lab voters have got a whole lot lazier and stupider since September 2010.
Carlotta - so they couldn't even get a member of the cabinet.
For what its worth - and I don't know why I bother trying tot talk to people about internal Labour stuff on this site as you all never listen - MPs have woken up over the last 7 years to the importance and power of members.
The members will want Ed to stay and they will shut up if they were to even raise their voices.
There will be no question of any moves against Ed. No MP will be stupid enough to do that.
Even if he wins less than 2010?
The Labour party does not remove a Prime Minister. The Labour Party has never removed a Leader.
Apart from one who won three elections, of course.
The police were informed, and decided not to charge Garvie, but did give him "strong words of advice regarding his conduct."
Labour are probably quietly glad Garvie has no real chance of being elected. If he were standing in a marginal, his behaviour could make a difference to the final seat tally, and it might get more attention.
Obviously, this isn't a major story, but we can expect some unusual voting patterns in Wellingborough, and possibly some records. It'll be the only seat in the mainland UK where Labour officially get zero votes (Garvie has been suspended by Labour, so is nominally independent) and it might see the highest swing to the Conservatives as a result.
She's over 16 I'm wondering what law he might have broken. Reminds me of the recent case of a (young) teacher who was found guilty of an offence and banned from teaching because she visited a former student and had sex with him after he had left school and gone to university. I'm all in favour of protecting the young and vulnerable but sometimes the law seems to be an ass.
Carlotta - so they couldn't even get a member of the cabinet.
For what its worth - and I don't know why I bother trying tot talk to people about internal Labour stuff on this site as you all never listen - MPs have woken up over the last 7 years to the importance and power of members.
The members will want Ed to stay and they will shut up if they were to even raise their voices.
'including some members of the shadow cabinet, are privately worried about this outcome. One Labour frontbencher said: “If we come second and try and cling on, [everyone else] will kill us. Mr Cameron would say — not unreasonably — that he’s won and he’d be right. I don’t think that the country will forgive us'.
The members will want Ed to stay? Nice one. He has no natural support base in the party and I've yet to hear a Labour member stand up for him.
Apologies if I have misunderstood but a replica ballot poll of 2100 people that covers 632 constituencies averages just over 3 people per constituency, surely that is hardly likely to pick up any incumbency factor??
That occurred to me, as well. A named ballot paper would be really useful for single constituency polls. I don't see what it adds to a national poll.
Indeed. The crucial thing is *where* the changes are taking place.
I thought the Survation poll mimicked the local ballot paper. I think the postcode was possibly the trigger.
Carlotta - so they couldn't even get a member of the cabinet.
For what its worth - and I don't know why I bother trying tot talk to people about internal Labour stuff on this site as you all never listen - MPs have woken up over the last 7 years to the importance and power of members.
The members will want Ed to stay and they will shut up if they were to even raise their voices.
There will be no question of any moves against Ed. No MP will be stupid enough to do that.
Even if he wins less than 2010?
The Labour party does not remove a Prime Minister. The Labour Party has never removed a Leader.
Apart from one who won three elections, of course.
I am only interested in England and Wales or even just England weighted polls.
YG are giving England and Wales splits, and the impact of Wales is tiny if you rework their Midlands/Wales subsample with Lab 39 Con 25 (yesterday's Wales only headline).
The key difference with YG is that they imply that Labour are about 4 points higher in the Midlands than any other pollster.
I wonder whether in the end the only workable government is going to be some kind of grand coalition. There will quickly be enormous pressure on both main parties to form a stable government, but in order for that to happen party ties are going to have to be loosened. I could foresee some agreement being reached between Cameroons, Blairites and LDs to form a government, and they would probably all welcome an opportunity to freeze out the euro-loons and austerity-deniers wherever they sit.
I think the Blairites are an under-estimated presence. However their local parties would surely try to de-select them if they propped up Cameron.
Such snobbishness. Most people care little for politics and people may know its an election but simply forget that they need to vote. This happens for Tories and Labour supporters. Yes Labour voters probably are harder to motivate. But dropping a leaflet around someones house before they get up may remind them to vote on the way into work and knocking on their door and encouraging them to vote will show them how important their vote is.
Just to be clear. All parties do this. There isn't anything unique about Labour voters. Yet again this shows a problem with PB - to few activists.
Another election leaflet this morning from Labour's Ivan Lewis here in Bury S. The strapline across the front "Remember a vote for UKIP will let the Tories back into [sic] Bury South". An interesting final election week message.
I wonder if he's worried or just over cautious. That's 4 mailings from the incumbent in what should be a safe seat this time. The only other mailing has been one UKIP leaflet. Not a jot from Tory or LD. Don't even know the names of those candidates, unthinkable 4 days from polling.
Carlotta - so they couldn't even get a member of the cabinet.
For what its worth - and I don't know why I bother trying tot talk to people about internal Labour stuff on this site as you all never listen - MPs have woken up over the last 7 years to the importance and power of members.
The members will want Ed to stay and they will shut up if they were to even raise their voices.
'including some members of the shadow cabinet, are privately worried about this outcome. One Labour frontbencher said: “If we come second and try and cling on, [everyone else] will kill us. Mr Cameron would say — not unreasonably — that he’s won and he’d be right. I don’t think that the country will forgive us'.
The members will want Ed to stay? Nice one. He has no natural support base in the party and I've yet to hear a Labour member stand up for him.
I am a member and the ST story is 100% made up..
Ed Miliband is a member. That does not put him in a position to know how members of his shad cab are briefing the papers. In what way are you in a superior position to him, informationally speaking, please?
It would be naive to say that senior writers on respectable broadsheets never ever make things up 100%, but it is such an extraordinarily high-risk thing for them to do that partisan claims that they have done so can in practice always be discounted as evidence of severe rattlement.
Carlotta - so they couldn't even get a member of the cabinet.
For what its worth - and I don't know why I bother trying tot talk to people about internal Labour stuff on this site as you all never listen - MPs have woken up over the last 7 years to the importance and power of members.
The members will want Ed to stay and they will shut up if they were to even raise their voices.
'including some members of the shadow cabinet, are privately worried about this outcome. One Labour frontbencher said: “If we come second and try and cling on, [everyone else] will kill us. Mr Cameron would say — not unreasonably — that he’s won and he’d be right. I don’t think that the country will forgive us'.
The members will want Ed to stay? Nice one. He has no natural support base in the party and I've yet to hear a Labour member stand up for him.
I am a member and the ST story is 100% made up..
1/~15 defending EM, I suppose that's a start. I doubt it, there are plenty who would want him gone - my money is on Chuka being the one who made those comments.
Carlotta - so they couldn't even get a member of the cabinet.
For what its worth - and I don't know why I bother trying tot talk to people about internal Labour stuff on this site as you all never listen - MPs have woken up over the last 7 years to the importance and power of members.
The members will want Ed to stay and they will shut up if they were to even raise their voices.
There will be no question of any moves against Ed. No MP will be stupid enough to do that.
Even if he wins less than 2010?
The Labour party does not remove a Prime Minister. The Labour Party has never removed a Leader.
Apart from one who won three elections, of course.
The Delia Smith endorsement is an extremely good one for Labour precisely because she doesn't fit the normal mould of Labour luvvie. They must be delighted with it.
I really do worry about the post-election environment if it's a messy hung parliament. People fighting over legitimacy with a rabid Tory press sticking its oar in. Street protests are surely a high possibility. Would we have Scots marching on Westminster demanding Cameron go? No doubt Russell Brand will be all over the place.
Lots of celebrities endorsing Labour this time-Delia Smith the latest to `save the NHS`.
Ed Miliband-`one great British institution trying to save another`.
Funny that since the Tories are pledging more money for the NHS than Labour, why would Delia Smith do that?
Oh yes because she's a Labour supporter and backs them every election come what may. How is that "news"?
I don`t think it`s just her.In 2010,there were plenty endorsing the Tories.They seemed to have gone into hiding.
There are some like Karen Brady who have been active for the Tories. I can't recall any new celebrities backing a party (any party) who weren't already known supporters of that party.
I think thats a strong tactic - UKIP are going to end up getting a lot of seconds this time around. Seconds that will decide what seats they are targeting next time. If I were a Tory or Lab MP is a safe ish seat I would be doing everything I could to depress the UKIP vote.
I really do worry about the post-election environment if it's a messy hung parliament. People fighting over legitimacy with a rabid Tory press sticking its oar in. Street protests are surely a high possibility. Would we have Scots marching on Westminster demanding Cameron go? No doubt Russell Brand will be all over the place.
I find protests highly unlikely. The overwhelming feeling of this election is an apathetic "we don't care" - so why would people protest after? Passions are no boiling over.
The Delia Smith endorsement is an extremely good one for Labour precisely because she doesn't fit the normal mould of Labour luvvie. They must be delighted with it.
The Ronnie O Sullivan one wasn't bad either.
Brand coming out for the Greens is the least surprising one ever tbh. And shows up their core certainty to vote...
The Delia Smith endorsement is an extremely good one for Labour precisely because she doesn't fit the normal mould of Labour luvvie. They must be delighted with it.
Oh come on - both she and her husband are both lifelong Labour supporters .... this is hardly news. Plus, isn't she now ever so slightly passé ?
Morning all. I live in a relatively safe Labour seat and I have had a leaflet from Labour, Conservative, Lib Dem, UKIP and an independent. No door knocking. For the local elections my ward is all Conservative, albeit last year one Conservative just scraped in against the Labour challenger. In the locals I have only had a Labour leaflet, although I seem to remember the Conservative Parliamentary leaflet had some mention of the councillors.
Thinking forward to May 8th, if the Con-Lib coalition was able to stay on what are people's views about how many roles the Lib Dems will get? Surely they cannot have as many Minister proportionally as they had before if their MP figure collapses? Will there only be two Lib Dem cabinet positions (excluding Clegg) rather than three? I would imagine some Conservative backbenchers would fume of the Lib Dems had as substantial a role than previously with fewer voters?
What choice would the Tories have ? Either accept the LD votes and demands or go it alone.
Currently there are 36 LD ministers. There may not even be that many LD MPs next time.
We're not going to have a scenario where every single LD MP is made a minister and we certainly won't have the LD's holding more ministers than they have MPs.
In theory, but most voters have no idea who their MP is. If all you had tho go on, on the ballot form was the candidates name they would be unable to identify who they actually wanted to support.
Not necessarily as an individual: they may think that whoever Labour puts forward will best represent their interests.
But that's totally different to someone from Witney directing the vote of someone in Eastleigh. The Witney individual might be quite happy with a Tory, but is likely to have no understanding of specific issues pertaining to Eastleigh.
Surely that's just the Eastleigh person choosing to have their vote determined in this way. If there was a local consideration that overwhelmed their usual preference, surely they would choose not to take part in the arrabgement.
Not really: they are deciding that they don't like the rules of the game, so they will subvert the intention of a constituency based system.
Rosa Parks didn't like the rules of the game either.
Protest is a legitimate means of bringing about change.
Ludicrous comparison. Almost worth of a Goodwin award.
Vote swapping is a private affair between two individuals. Hardly a great statement of principle.
Campaign for change. Get a petition. Organise a group of people to canvass for MPs who support a change. Throw yourself under the Queen's horse at the Derby for all I care.
But don't deprive other citizens of the full exercise of their right to select a local representative. That's my fundamental issue with vote swapping: it's person A saying "my wishes are more important than those people's over there"
Comments
Here is the safe Tory seat of Wimbledon, Labour and LD activity is high. I would have thought the LD vote would collapse and coalesce around Labour but it seems to be holding firm. It's highly unlikely that Wimbledon will fall and the split opposition helps the Tories but I'm counting on the Tory majority to be slashed substantially.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CEJXEHFWYAAuEky.jpg:large
Thinking forward to May 8th, if the Con-Lib coalition was able to stay on what are people's views about how many roles the Lib Dems will get? Surely they cannot have as many Minister proportionally as they had before if their MP figure collapses? Will there only be two Lib Dem cabinet positions (excluding Clegg) rather than three? I would imagine some Conservative backbenchers would fume of the Lib Dems had as substantial a role than previously with fewer voters?
In practice people will often vote for the party the person represents.
Hence the "red/blue rosette on a donkey" type seats.
"What's going on? Ed's gone rogue! It's just the Ed Show these days!" - stunned Labour staffer about Miliband's recent election stunts
But it's the system we have.
And constituency representation trumps all.
But I'm not betting on it.
The fact that London Labour/MSM put all their faith in Jim Murphy, John Mc, Blair Mc - shows a complete lack of understanding of Scotland. The last thing Scotland needed was McMurphyism - a tired old version of Blairism.
You talk knowledgably about resources and sensible ideas from London, please tell us more, I've seen no evidence of either and I'm one of Jim's fabled 190,381.
Maybe we should chuck out entirely having local candidates, just vote nationally or regionally, for a party, and then take whomever we're given locally in some manner?
Story now on it's second day.
Grave stuff.
This applies particularly to LD and UKIP. It gives them a platform for the next election. Over time, it enables a smaller party to overcome the barrier of FPTP by concentrating their vote in a smallish number of seats. It starts by getting second place (and local council representation) to overcome the wasted vote argument and enable the argument that only [we] can beat the [bugbear]. It takes many years and several elections to bear fruit.
It probably explains the LD activity in Wimbledon (and Richmond Park). No hope of first place but essential LDs retain second place.
Couple of things. What Labour needs at the moment is an orginisational effort to save as many seats as possible. this is something that murphy can at least do. But on your substantive point yeah the politics of those guys is not what Scotland needs - although they have changed...
The reason why Brown et al missed it is because they are from a different generation. They couldn't conceive of a de aligned electorate that required an active membership to get the votes out. To have an active membership they need respect and ownership - something the old stitch up merchants never had any interest in.
In England and Wales we have been able to do something about it just about in time - as will be illustrated by our gains south of the border. Do we need to improve south of the border still.. yes. The rise of UKIP shows that we have our own threat down here - but fortunately the party has learned the lessons of Scotland.
Rosa Parks didn't like the rules of the game either.
Protest is a legitimate means of bringing about change.
In the medium term, it seems to me that SNP might prefer a Tory government to advance their independence aims and Ukip one to advance their referendum aim.
In 1975, I was a Labour voter and like most, I was very keen on what was then the Common Market. The only nay-sayers, the fruitcakes and loons of the period, were the left wingers like Tony Benn. But even I was embarrassed by the one-sided nature of the argument. When the argument about political union came up, it was, as General Melchett would say, poo-pooed.
Despite Nick P protestations, it was never put to the people. I was not a political activist, but I did follow it closely, more so than many of my contemporaries.
The Common Market has evolved into a drive for political union. If that's what the British people want ... fine. But given the nature of the discussions 40 years ago, I seriously doubt that a 2017 referendum will be any different, both in nature and result. We will have the same media consensus and the only difference will be that the "loons" will wear a different rosette.
I was happy with the result in 1975, just uneasy about the way it was steamrollered into being.
The EU has a lot of plusses but I've been to European meetings in Brussels (albeit on the scientific side) and have also seem the politicking and the nonsense. It needs reform. I fear that it won't happen for the same reason that a balanced discussion will never ensue.
It's not the lizards, it's human nature.
Wife now officially wavering back to voting for him again as "we owe him a debt plus he is the only one who has bothered to show his face"
She then surprised me by asking about the size of his majority and the projected result.
Electoral calculus is showing it being reasonably close (but a hold) compared to his 15% plus majority last time.
But, in the real world, less than half of voters elect anyone, and 4 out of 5 can't name their MP.
Shame the Lib Dems do not have this as a red line PR.
Would be nice to have every vote count, rather than current system.
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21650394-demographic-changes-parts-south-west-are-making-life-even-more-difficult-incumbent-liberal
Taking a leaf from his opponents’ book, like the Lib Dems he campaigns heavily strongly on local issues, presenting himself as a constituency champion. The Conservative Party itself barely gets a look-in on his campaign literature. As Mr Warburton himself argues, “I hope the voters will put me before the party.” Polls suggest they will.
Its a Times story - the Grauniad has an excerpt:
Allies of Mr Miliband insist that he would have the right to enter No 10 if he mustered the support of more than half the 650 MPs in the Commons, even if this meant relying on the Nationalists ...
Others, including some members of the shadow cabinet, are privately worried about this outcome. One Labour frontbencher said: “If we come second and try and cling on, [everyone else] will kill us. Mr Cameron would say — not unreasonably — that he’s won and he’d be right. I don’t think that the country will forgive us if we have effectively lost the election but say we’re going into government. If the mandate for governing relies almost exclusively on the SNP, we should quit trying because we will have failed to convince the electorate, and seek a new leader.”
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2015/may/04/election-2015-live-result-knife-edge-ken-clarke-warns-chaos-second-vote#block-55473ed1e4b0fc4f1b18c139
He didn't ask who we were voting for but he did leave a "winning here" sticker for the window.
'SouthamObserver said:
Tories by 20-30 seats. End of.
Be wary of this tipster, check his record on Scottish Referendum and USA Presidential Elections.
However he has stopped clock syndrome so is due a correct bet.'
Nailed on Labor win !
For what its worth - and I don't know why I bother trying tot talk to people about internal Labour stuff on this site as you all never listen - MPs have woken up over the last 7 years to the importance and power of members.
The members will want Ed to stay and they will shut up if they were to even raise their voices.
Who will win the General Election according to PES?
http://www.kotaku.co.uk/2015/05/04/who-will-win-the-2015-uk-election-according-to-pes
'Just me finds this post astonishing? Rabid labour cheerleader calls his supporters too stupid to vote unless reminded on the day. Beyond belief.'
A reflection of himself !
Richard Garvie, the Labour candidate for Weillingborough recently convicted of fraudulently buying train tickets, is apparently also in trouble for inappropriate approaches with a 17-year old girl. According to the Mail (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3064732/Police-probe-Labour-parliamentary-hopeful-went-Snapchat-asked-public-schoolgirl-17-Ready-bed-yet.html) he " asked the girl whether she was doing anything that night and if she was ‘ready for bed?’
The police were informed, and decided not to charge Garvie, but did give him "strong words of advice regarding his conduct."
Labour are probably quietly glad Garvie has no real chance of being elected. If he were standing in a marginal, his behaviour could make a difference to the final seat tally, and it might get more attention.
Obviously, this isn't a major story, but we can expect some unusual voting patterns in Wellingborough, and possibly some records. It'll be the only seat in the mainland UK where Labour officially get zero votes (Garvie has been suspended by Labour, so is nominally independent) and it might see the highest swing to the Conservatives as a result.
The members will want Ed to stay? Nice one. He has no natural support base in the party and I've yet to hear a Labour member stand up for him.
No doubt there are some Tories who will want to rewrite the British constitution by claiming legitimacy as the largest party in Parliament. The biggest worry for Labour is surely a Blairite fifth column who want Cameron in No.10.
I can't help detecting a touch of recency bias in Surbiton's views. I suspect Lab voters have got a whole lot lazier and stupider since September 2010.
The key difference with YG is that they imply that Labour are about 4 points higher in the Midlands than any other pollster.
Such snobbishness. Most people care little for politics and people may know its an election but simply forget that they need to vote. This happens for Tories and Labour supporters. Yes Labour voters probably are harder to motivate. But dropping a leaflet around someones house before they get up may remind them to vote on the way into work and knocking on their door and encouraging them to vote will show them how important their vote is.
Just to be clear. All parties do this. There isn't anything unique about Labour voters. Yet again this shows a problem with PB - to few activists.
I wonder if he's worried or just over cautious. That's 4 mailings from the incumbent in what should be a safe seat this time. The only other mailing has been one UKIP leaflet. Not a jot from Tory or LD. Don't even know the names of those candidates, unthinkable 4 days from polling.
It would be naive to say that senior writers on respectable broadsheets never ever make things up 100%, but it is such an extraordinarily high-risk thing for them to do that partisan claims that they have done so can in practice always be discounted as evidence of severe rattlement.
Ed Miliband-`one great British institution trying to save another`.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/sep/19/tony-blair-gordon-brown
Oh yes because she's a Labour supporter and backs them every election come what may. How is that "news"?
Neither Tories nor Labour really have a mass of celeb endorsements this time around.
'The members will want Ed to stay? Nice one. He has no natural support base in the party and I've yet to hear a Labour member stand up for him.
I am a member and the ST story is 100% made up..
Have you now morphed into a soothsayer?
I think thats a strong tactic - UKIP are going to end up getting a lot of seconds this time around. Seconds that will decide what seats they are targeting next time. If I were a Tory or Lab MP is a safe ish seat I would be doing everything I could to depress the UKIP vote.
Jimmy Greaves in intensive care after severe stroke
'EdStone now on BBC front page and up to no.6 on most read stories.
Story now on it's second day.
Grave stuff.'
I think they've hidden both Ed & his tombstone to-day,just too embarrassing.
Brand coming out for the Greens is the least surprising one ever tbh. And shows up their core certainty to vote...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_8JLkwzpd0
We're not going to have a scenario where every single LD MP is made a minister and we certainly won't have the LD's holding more ministers than they have MPs.
Con 276
Lab 269
SNP 54
LD 26
Which "coalition of the losers" do we want from that lot ?
Vote swapping is a private affair between two individuals. Hardly a great statement of principle.
Campaign for change. Get a petition. Organise a group of people to canvass for MPs who support a change. Throw yourself under the Queen's horse at the Derby for all I care.
But don't deprive other citizens of the full exercise of their right to select a local representative. That's my fundamental issue with vote swapping: it's person A saying "my wishes are more important than those people's over there"