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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How voting dynamics are different in the tight CON – LAB battlegrounds compared with the country as a whole
One of the great things about tonight’s ComRes/ITV marginals poll is that it gave us data that we could compare with national polling to see different patterns.
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@CCHQPress: We need just 23 seats to win a majority - Miliband can only become PM by doing a deal with the SNP #VoteConservative http://t.co/Tc05nfAUKN
SeanTGood point (tangentially) Clegg is quite likely to lose his seat, and even if scrapes through, he might not be leader. Will the next Lib Dem leader feel obliged to adhere to Clegg's pledges (no deal with DUP, SNP etc)? I doubt it. Why would they?
So all these Clegg remarks are quite probably worthless.
If anything it's probably a bit irritating for those in his party who don't need to rely on Tory tactical votes to the same degree Clegg does, who might feel they will catch flak for it in their areas as Clegg tries to save his own seat.
And while I do hope he retains it - if nothing else, I think the LD attempt to recover will be much more interesting if they can have the electorate decapitate their leadership for them than if he is still in the parliamentary party - any attempt of his to retain the leadership is surely futile, so he's not helping the party much if his pro-Tory interpreted remarks have an impact elsewhere.
Quebec was lost because they waited too long. The SNP know this. 50% of Scotland wants another referendum inside 5 years, 65% within 10 years. It will be on the 2016 manifesto. The SNP know it is necessary and are already planning it.
Western Isles SNP majority 36.7%
What % do you think Hosie could get ? 80 ?
Perhaps time for a new acronym: EICIPMBNFL - Ed Is Crap Is PM But Not For Long
Fancy a spell in a military camp in Sussex?
SPIN;
"Night of the Long Knives"
How many of these high profile MPs/Candidates will NOT win their seat in the forthcoming General Election (May 7th 2015):
Nigel Farage (Thanet South),
Nick Clegg (Sheffield Hallam),
Ed Balls (Morley & Outwood),
Douglas Alexander (Paisley & Renfr' S.),
Danny Alexander (Inverness, Nairn...),
Jim Murphy (Renfrewshire East),
Charles Kennedy (Ross Skye & Loch'),
Simon Hughes (Bermondsey & S'wark),
Esther McVey (Wirral West),
George Galloway (Bradford West)
0 fail to win (i.e all win their seats) = 0
1 fails to win = 5 pts
2 fail to win = 10 pts
3 fail to win = 15 pts
4 fail to win = 20 pts
5 fail to win = 25 pts
6 fail to win = 30 pts
7 fail to win = 40 pts
8 fail to win = 60 pts
9 fail to win = 80 pts
All 10 fail to win = 100 pts
Only 1 score counts, based on the exact number who fail to win.
Min MU = 0, Max MU =100.
Current Spread:
SELL 27 - 32 BUY
https://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british/mm4.uk.meeting.5103806/uk-general-election-specials-and-matchbets
Dunno about points, I'm thinking Hosie could be a 28k majority.
And plenty of MoD bureaucrats.
Nigel Farage (Thanet South), 50%
Nick Clegg (Sheffield Hallam), 60%
Ed Balls (Morley & Outwood), 0%
Douglas Alexander (Paisley & Renfr' S.), 100%
Danny Alexander (Inverness, Nairn...), 100%
Jim Murphy (Renfrewshire East), 90%
Charles Kennedy (Ross Skye & Loch'), 100%
Simon Hughes (Bermondsey & S'wark), 40%
Esther McVey (Wirral West), 70%
George Galloway (Bradford West) 0%
Ashcroft's polls at constituency level show a rough ratio of 2:1 LD switchers to be the breaking point for at which Labour take the seat, and the Tories lose it. Below 2:1 the Tories tend to hold.
Tonight's Comres marginals poll shows a real aversion among undecided LD/Kippers to any form of Lab/SNP arrangement.
It's going to decide the election.
Without that push for a second IndyRef, I could easily see the parties lasting a lot longer a lot easier than people suspect.
Labour are finished in Scotland.
Finished.
Not down, not hurt, not troubled. They are finished. They have no way back, they will never get significant support again in Scotland. They will lose seats and the Conservatives will become the second largest party at Holyrood while Labour try to defend third place to the Greens (which they will lose the election after).
Again. Labour are finished in Scotland.
But. Why would the SNP care.
And I think the next referendum is already decided. The nation is charmed by Nicola. There is no reason to think she cannot maintain that until 2017/8.
Take more migrants or they will 'come through the window' says EU chief Jean-Claude Juncker http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11572351/Take-more-migrants-or-they-will-come-through-the-window-says-EU-chief-Jean-Claude-Juncker.html …
(Yes, that was a strawman statement, but most people using the 'no-one voted for this' argument will be no strangers to such tactics)
Personally lack of legitimacy is not so much of an issue for me - we have the system we have and it can deliver those sorts of outcome; if we don't want that we can change the system - but the chaos line does work on me a little. That said, its impact is blunted a bit as although it appears the permutations are even more chaotic this time around, and include a party which advocates for the break up of the UK which adds something new to the mix, the relative harmony of this coalition mitigates the fear of chaos a little too,
Ed & Russell Brand.
I've also worked out new regional allocations based on a 600 seat parliament (as planned unless the boundary review rules are changed or it is voted down)
East of England - 56 seats (current entitlement 58)
E Midlands - 43 seats (current entitlement 46)
London - 68 seats (current entitlement 73)
North East - 25 seats (current entitlement 29)
North West - 68 seats (current entitlement 75)
South East - 83 seats (current entitlement 84)
South West - 53 seats (current entitlement 55)
W Midlands - 53 seats (current entitlement 59)
Yorkshire - 50 seats (current entitlement 54)
Scotland - 53 seats (current entitlement 59)
Wales - 29 seats (current entitlement 40)
N Ireland - 16 seats (current entitlement 18)
Total - 597 seats (currently 650). I think the reason it is less than 600 is that special provisions are made for Isle of Wight to have 2 seats and for Orkney/Shetland and Western Isles
Wales loses the most due to the end of its over-representation. I'm surprised Scotland isn't going up due to the referendum but I think Scotland's population is growing less slowly than other parts of the UK.
Labour won't just acknowledge they're finished in Scotland, especially in Holyrood which has a form of Proportional Representation so no party is ever truly finished (even the Tories have 15 MSPs).
So once we head into the Holyrood election campaign Labour are locked into an existential battle to the death with a party that (as you're showing) wants to destroy not just the UK but Labour themselves.
And supposedly these parties are going to be working together amicably running the country? I don't think so.
It will be the Tories and Greens.
Politics is a long game.
Crucially the referendum was lost recently. The unionist parties can avoid another one for a long time.
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/593511112491945984/photo/1
We know East London is the fastest growing part of the UK. So East Ham and West Ham should be right at the top of the list - indeed their electorates should have grown most since 2010.
The fact they aren't there shows Individual Voter Registration has pushed people off the list.
It won't matter, of course, in East Ham and West Ham but if it's happened nationwide then it can only hurt Lab and help Con.
However the figures will have risen with the late rush to register - we really do need to see final numbers and compare to 2010.
I expect him to do well tomorrow night - the practice seems to be helping (he is performing better than at the beginning of the campaign)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q-Vuj5FeK00
the hard times of old England
Come all brother tradesment that travel along
O pray, come and tell me where the trade is all gone
Long time have I travelled, and I cannot find none
Chorus
And sing all the hard times of old England
In old England, very hard times
Provisions you buy at the shop, it is true
But if you've no money, there's none there for you
So what's a poor man and his family to do?
Chorus
You must go to the shop and you'll ask for a job
They'll answer you there with a shake and a nod
And that's enough to make a man turn out and rob
Chorus
You will see the poor tradesmen a-walkin's the street
From morning to night for employment to seek
And scarce have they got any shoes to their feet
Chorus
Our soldiers and sailors have just come from war
Been fighting for Queen and country this year
Come home to be starved, better stayed where they were
Chorus
And now to conclude and to finish my song
Let us hope that these hard times will not last long
I hope soon to have occasion to alter my song, and sing
Oh, the good times of old England
In old England, jolly good times!
I have never seen a party so toxic as Scottish Labour.
I lived through the Tory shrink in the 80s and 90s and it was NOTHING compared to this. Tory PPCs weren't barracked in the streets, they could go on TV without random passers by yelling insults at them. The 80s/90s Tories were also not known to be completely corrupt.
Labour have been building this for years. People in WCS knew the Labour party were corrupt, knew they gave jobs to their pals, flooded local authorities with placepeople, always say their own got a cushy number if they were unlucky. But the weighed votes were overwhelming - because "it's how my grandad voted".
Once you break that, you break the familial voting pattern for a corrupt and broken party, it doesn't return.
As I said. Labour are finished in Scotland.
Labour outside Scotland. Meh, not so much.
Without SLAB MPs the view of Labour - especially as Labour in Scotland are finished with no way back - is going to change (if it ever was actually anti-SNP).
Labour without SLAB can happily work with the SNP. At least till they see what the SNP will do to them in Westminster.
In regards to BRG I thought I saw someone mention that they may randomly select emails to poll - is this correct, if not does anyone actually know their methodology?
https://twitter.com/KevinJPringle/status/593481917497999360
Neither LAB nor the SNP are going to concede Holyrood to the other without a fight. And the fight is not going to be pretty.
Liberals were 17 in 1999, 17 in 2003, 16 in 2007, 5 in 2011.
AMS D'Hondt has a 5% threshold. Liberals could be wiped next election. They probably will be down to 1 (Northern Scotland List).
Labour will be reduced to 13 next election. Thats from 56 in 1999, 50 in 2003, 46 in 2007 and 37 last time.
Is the the danger for Labour that great?
We won't forget where our loyalties lie and we believe in the UK. You do not.
We know that any attempt at cooperation would end in disaster for us.
Therefore it will not happen.
Despite what the Nats say, it will not happen.
Edit
Southern Tory
Just vote together. Against the Tories. Once.
And Miliband is PM.
Then once more to keep him there.
As their prisoner...
James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers · 1h 1 hour ago
Sifting through numbers for our latest from @ComResPolls. With a week to go, is anyone breaking away? Results at 10pm on @MailOnline
They're going to want to fight and fight hard. The SNP are going to want to fight and fight hard. Probably dirty on both sides. But they're supposed to be playing happy families in Westminster, while one partner in the happy family wants a divorce and to leave Westminster.
It doesn't work.
The Scottish Sun newspaper urges its readers to vote SNP: “a new hope for our country”. #ge2015
BREAKING: The Sun backs the Conservatives: http://sunnation.co/6015AKnf
The Labour leader's pledge to redefine Islamophobia as an aggravated crime will be cheered by child sex-grooming gangs in Rotherham and election-stealers in Tower Hamlets
Lamb??- Not sure
Its not just prison, it'll be torture.
Presenting DISASTER (Danny's Inexplicably Shit Attempt at Simulating The Election Result)
Starting with predictions of Lib Dem seats
LIB DEM HOLDS (17)
Sutton & Cheam, Eastbourne, Eastleigh, Carshalton & Wallington, Berwickshire, Cambridge, Southport, Thornbury & Yate, Colchester, Lewes, Caithness, Twickenham, Ceredigion, North Norfolk, Westmorland & Lonsdale, Sheffield Hallam (narrowly), Orkney & Shetland
LABOUR GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (12)
Norwich South, Bradford East, Brent Central, Manchester Withington, Burnley, Birmingham Yardley, Redcar, Hornsey & Wood Green, Cardiff Central, Bermondsey, Bristol West, Leeds North West
TORY GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (20)
Solihull, Mid Dorset, Wells, St Austell & Newquay, Somerton & Frome, St Ives, Chippenham, Cheadle, North Cornwall, Taunton Deane, Berwick-upon-Tweed, Torbay, Cheltenham, Brecon & Radnorshire, North Devon, Portsmouth South, Kingston & Surbiton, Hazel Grove, Yeovil, Bath
SNP GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (8)
East Dunbartonshire, Argyll & Bute, Aberdeenshire West, Edinburgh West, Gordon, Inverness, North East Fife, Ross Skye & Lochaber