SeanT Sturgeon will only hold another referendum if sure she can win it, or post an EU exit after a 2017 EU referendum. She knows from Quebec's experience even a 51-49% No win in a second referendum effectively kills the independence argument for good
Utter nonsense.
Quebec was lost because they waited too long. The SNP know this. 50% of Scotland wants another referendum inside 5 years, 65% within 10 years. It will be on the 2016 manifesto. The SNP know it is necessary and are already planning it.
The problem is getting the timing right. You need the oil price to recover but you also need to avoid it coinciding with the next economic downturn. You also need the UK government to agree. If you want to have one in 2017 say, I think the UK government could legitimately say no. The SNP will also need to be seen to be using the Smith Commission powers effectively
Very efficient focus with the three reasons given.
1) Economy - the general, positive reason, to appeal to every possible
2) SNP - The negative reason, focusing exclusively on the English vote of any political colour
3) EU referendum - the 'no need for UKIP' reason, focusing more narrowly on the former Tories in UKIP.
Although the Tories will be disappointed, The Sun "Why they get our vote pages 2,3,4,5,6 and 7"? If you really believed in them you'd give over pages 8,9 and 10 as well.
With Holyrood 2016 it doesn't seem plausible for Lab+SNP to play happy families for a long time. As soon as this election is over they need to turn their guns on each other - that doesn't make for happy bedfellows.
Perhaps time for a new acronym: EICIPMBNFL - Ed Is Crap Is PM But Not For Long
I think maybe you're missing the point.
Labour are finished in Scotland.
Finished.
Not down, not hurt, not troubled. They are finished. They have no way back, they will never get significant support again in Scotland. They will lose seats and the Conservatives will become the second largest party at Holyrood while Labour try to defend third place to the Greens (which they will lose the election after).
Again. Labour are finished in Scotland.
How does that disagree with anything I said, or mean that I'm missing the point.
Labour won't just acknowledge they're finished in Scotland, especially in Holyrood which has a form of Proportional Representation so no party is ever truly finished (even the Tories have 15 MSPs).
So once we head into the Holyrood election campaign Labour are locked into an existential battle to the death with a party that (as you're showing) wants to destroy not just the UK but Labour themselves.
And supposedly these parties are going to be working together amicably running the country? I don't think so.
They don't have to work together.
Just vote together. Against the Tories. Once.
And Miliband is PM.
Then once more to keep him there.
As their prisoner...
It takes more than just confidence votes to run the country effectively. Hence why I said "amicably running the country".
Its not just prison, it'll be torture.
Torture Lab will gladly suffer over options which see them not in No.10, even with the coming fight for Holyrood.
Slightly OT but given the lefties on here have constantly stated that this present government rule without a majority and lack legitimacy, how do they square that with the possibility a Labour minority government of which they seem quite happy at the moment.......?
Snip.
Labour in Scotland hate the SNP.
Labour outside Scotland. Meh, not so much.
Without SLAB MPs the view of Labour - especially as Labour in Scotland are finished with no way back - is going to change (if it ever was actually anti-SNP).
Labour without SLAB can happily work with the SNP. At least till they see what the SNP will do to them in Westminster.
No. Scottish Labour are at the heart of Labour. You wound them you wound us. The SNP have stolen Labour's clothes temporarily. But the SNP are nationalists and nationalists will steal whoever's clothes to seem popular. We won't forget where our loyalties lie and we believe in the UK. You do not. We know that any attempt at cooperation would end in disaster for us. Therefore it will not happen. Despite what the Nats say, it will not happen.
I completely agree that a Lab-SNP coalition would be the end for Labour, on both sides of the border. However I'm not sure that the Labour head honchos will take that into consideration. I get a feeling that they will do whatever to get themselves into power, even if it means that it may be their last time ever.
SeanT Sturgeon will only hold another referendum if sure she can win it, or post an EU exit after a 2017 EU referendum. She knows from Quebec's experience even a 51-49% No win in a second referendum effectively kills the independence argument for good
Utter nonsense.
Quebec was lost because they waited too long. The SNP know this. 50% of Scotland wants another referendum inside 5 years, 65% within 10 years. It will be on the 2016 manifesto. The SNP know it is necessary and are already planning it.
Your over-confidence will be your downfall.
People said the same thing during the IndyRef campaign. And, granted, they were right, although that seems small comfort now.
Yes. And politics is like that. Counterintuitively, the worst outcome for the Nats right now is to clean up and win every seat. They won't be able to contain their membership and MPs and will overplay their hand. A backlash will follow. Labour need to hold their nerve post election and see what another election brings.
Worth recalling the kind of pungently nasty, quasi-racist MP the Nats will be sending to London, if they really do a clean sweep.
Men like George Kerevan, who happily anticipates a UK economic implosion (as it aids independence) and sees non Scot Brits as "the enemy".
What will this do the image of the Nats, at home, and in the wider UK? We shall see.
You're confusing the opposition parties (the enemy) with the wider nation. Just as those Tories during indyref did who tried to clain that being anti-Tory was anti-English.
There are plenty of English etc in the SNp, right to the top levels.
LABOUR GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (12) Norwich South, Bradford East, Brent Central, Manchester Withington, Burnley, Birmingham Yardley, Redcar, Hornsey & Wood Green, Cardiff Central, Bermondsey, Bristol West, Leeds North West
TORY GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (20) Solihull, Mid Dorset, Wells, St Austell & Newquay, Somerton & Frome, St Ives, Chippenham, Cheadle, North Cornwall, Taunton Deane, Berwick-upon-Tweed, Torbay, Cheltenham, Brecon & Radnorshire, North Devon, Portsmouth South, Kingston & Surbiton, Hazel Grove, Yeovil, Bath
SNP GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (8) East Dunbartonshire, Argyll & Bute, Aberdeenshire West, Edinburgh West, Gordon, Inverness, North East Fife, Ross Skye & Lochaber
SeanT Sturgeon will only hold another referendum if sure she can win it, or post an EU exit after a 2017 EU referendum. She knows from Quebec's experience even a 51-49% No win in a second referendum effectively kills the independence argument for good
Utter nonsense.
Quebec was lost because they waited too long. The SNP know this. 50% of Scotland wants another referendum inside 5 years, 65% within 10 years. It will be on the 2016 manifesto. The SNP know it is necessary and are already planning it.
Your over-confidence will be your downfall.
People said the same thing during the IndyRef campaign. And, granted, they were right, although that seems small comfort now.
Yes. And politics is like that. Counterintuitively, the worst outcome for the Nats right now is to clean up and win every seat. They won't be able to contain their membership and MPs and will overplay their hand. A backlash will follow. Labour need to hold their nerve post election and see what another election brings.
Worth recalling the kind of pungently nasty, quasi-racist MP the Nats will be sending to London, if they really do a clean sweep.
Men like George Kerevan, who happily anticipates a UK economic implosion (as it aids independence) and sees non Scot Brits as "the enemy".
What will this do the image of the Nats, at home, and in the wider UK? We shall see.
You're confusing the opposition parties (the enemy) with the wider nation. Just as those Tories during indyref did who tried to clain that being anti-Tory was anti-English.
That is a game played on both sides, no-one can pretend any different.
Maybe the Tories should have hired somebody from the News International to run their election campaign...that is far more coherent and straight forward than Tories campaign so far....on wait they tried that approach...
Slightly OT but given the lefties on here have constantly stated that this present government rule without a majority and lack legitimacy, how do they square that with the possibility a Labour minority government of which they seem quite happy at the moment.......?
My suspicion is that despite the occasional comment about 'no-one having voted for this government', that would not apply to an anti-Tory majority, as that everyone voting for a party that is not the Tory party would obviously therefore automatically be fine with any arrangement that keeps the Tories out. Indeed, clearly this should have been the case last time, were it not for the traitors of the LDs, who were duty bound to do so.
(Yes, that was a strawman statement, but most people using the 'no-one voted for this' argument will be no strangers to such tactics)
Personally lack of legitimacy is not so much of an issue for me - we have the system we have and it can deliver those sorts of outcome; if we don't want that we can change the system - but the chaos line does work on me a little. That said, its impact is blunted a bit as although it appears the permutations are even more chaotic this time around, and include a party which advocates for the break up of the UK which adds something new to the mix, the relative harmony of this coalition mitigates the fear of chaos a little too,
I don't think the Tories on here realise how much Labour hate the SNP. We are not bedfellows. They want to end the UK. We do not. We cannot form an alliance with them for that reason. It is non-negotiable and will always overshadow any attempt at compromise. Any attempt to sidestep that reality is doomed to failure and Labour know this. Another election beckons before the year is out.
Labour in Scotland hate the SNP.
Labour outside Scotland. Meh, not so much.
Without SLAB MPs the view of Labour - especially as Labour in Scotland are finished with no way back - is going to change (if it ever was actually anti-SNP).
Labour without SLAB can happily work with the SNP. At least till they see what the SNP will do to them in Westminster.
Except there's a Holyrood election in 12 months time, as much as you're glossing over and ignoring that fact.
Neither LAB nor the SNP are going to concede Holyrood to the other without a fight. And the fight is not going to be pretty.
Labour will win 13 seats in 2016 Holyrood (down from 37). That's how AMS D'Hondt works for a hated party on the slide. They lose FAST. Just ask the Lib Dems. The infighting amongst Labour hacks to get the List slots in 2016 will make anything you have ever seen in UK politics look polite.
Slightly OT but given the lefties on here have constantly stated that this present government rule without a majority and lack legitimacy, how do they square that with the possibility a Labour minority government of which they seem quite happy at the moment.......?
My suspicion is that despite the occasional comment about 'no-one having voted for this government', that would not apply to an anti-Tory majority, as that everyone voting for a party that is not the Tory party would obviously therefore automatically be fine with any arrangement that keeps the Tories out. Indeed, clearly this should have been the case last time, were it not for the traitors of the LDs, who were duty bound to do so.
(Yes, that was a strawman statement, but most people using the 'no-one voted for this' argument will be no strangers to such tactics)
Personally lack of legitimacy is not so much of an issue for me - we have the system we have and it can deliver those sorts of outcome; if we don't want that we can change the system - but the chaos line does work on me a little. That said, its impact is blunted a bit as although it appears the permutations are even more chaotic this time around, and include a party which advocates for the break up of the UK which adds something new to the mix, the relative harmony of this coalition mitigates the fear of chaos a little too,
I don't think the Tories on here realise how much Labour hate the SNP. We are not bedfellows. They want to end the UK. We do not. We cannot form an alliance with them for that reason. It is non-negotiable and will always overshadow any attempt at compromise. Any attempt to sidestep that reality is doomed to failure and Labour know this. Another election beckons before the year is out.
As a Tory i dont have a gut feel for Scottish politics-but surely you can do a deal??
Is the the danger for Labour that great?
Yes, they are. See my post below.
Monty, But seriously-you both want more spending , welfare cuts reversed etc
Are you really saying that you would prefer a TORY Govt to doing a deal with SNP?
Slightly OT but given the lefties on here have constantly stated that this present government rule without a majority and lack legitimacy, how do they square that with the possibility a Labour minority government of which they seem quite happy at the moment.......?
My suspicion is that despite the occasional comment about 'no-one having voted for this government', that would not apply to an anti-Tory majority, as that everyone voting for a party that is not the Tory party would obviously therefore automatically be fine with any arrangement that keeps the Tories out. Indeed, clearly this should have been the case last time, were it not for the traitors of the LDs, who were duty bound to do so.
(Yes, that was a strawman statement, but most people using the 'no-one voted for this' argument will be no strangers to such tactics)
Personally lack of legitimacy is not so much of an issue for me - we have the system we have and it can deliver those sorts of outcome; if we don't want that we can change the system - but the chaos line does work on me a little. That said, its impact is blunted a bit as although it appears the permutations are even more chaotic this time around, and include a party which advocates for the break up of the UK which adds something new to the mix, the relative harmony of this coalition mitigates the fear of chaos a little too,
I don't think the Tories on here realise how much Labour hate the SNP. We are not bedfellows. They want to end the UK. We do not. We cannot form an alliance with them for that reason. It is non-negotiable and will always overshadow any attempt at compromise. Any attempt to sidestep that reality is doomed to failure and Labour know this. Another election beckons before the year is out.
As a Tory i dont have a gut feel for Scottish politics-but surely you can do a deal??
Is the the danger for Labour that great?
Yes, they are. See my post below.
Monty, But seriously-you both want more spending , welfare cuts reversed etc
Are you really saying that you would prefer a TORY Govt to doing a deal with SNP?
I just cant see the PLP doing this.
Yes, no deals with SNP. It may mean the end of the Union. We have principles.
With Holyrood 2016 it doesn't seem plausible for Lab+SNP to play happy families for a long time. As soon as this election is over they need to turn their guns on each other - that doesn't make for happy bedfellows.
Perhaps time for a new acronym: EICIPMBNFL - Ed Is Crap Is PM But Not For Long
I think maybe you're missing the point.
Labour are finished in Scotland.
Finished.
Not down, not hurt, not troubled. They are finished. They have no way back, they will never get significant support again in Scotland. They will lose seats and the Conservatives will become the second largest party at Holyrood while Labour try to defend third place to the Greens (which they will lose the election after).
Again. Labour are finished in Scotland.
How does that disagree with anything I said, or mean that I'm missing the point.
Labour won't just acknowledge they're finished in Scotland, especially in Holyrood which has a form of Proportional Representation so no party is ever truly finished (even the Tories have 15 MSPs).
So once we head into the Holyrood election campaign Labour are locked into an existential battle to the death with a party that (as you're showing) wants to destroy not just the UK but Labour themselves.
And supposedly these parties are going to be working together amicably running the country? I don't think so.
Actually you can be wiped out in AMS D'Hondt.
Liberals were 17 in 1999, 17 in 2003, 16 in 2007, 5 in 2011.
AMS D'Hondt has a 5% threshold. Liberals could be wiped next election. They probably will be down to 1 (Northern Scotland List).
Labour will be reduced to 13 next election. Thats from 56 in 1999, 50 in 2003, 46 in 2007 and 37 last time.
Do you think Labour are willing and content to be reduced like that without a fight?
They're going to want to fight and fight hard. The SNP are going to want to fight and fight hard. Probably dirty on both sides. But they're supposed to be playing happy families in Westminster, while one partner in the happy family wants a divorce and to leave Westminster.
It doesn't work.
Labour already lost.
They can put up any fight they want. It won;t work. No-one is listening to Labour in Scotland.
Without SLAB MPs the view of Labour - especially as Labour in Scotland are finished with no way back - is going to change (if it ever was actually anti-SNP).
Labour without SLAB can happily work with the SNP. At least till they see what the SNP will do to them in Westminster.
Except there's a Holyrood election in 12 months time, as much as you're glossing over and ignoring that fact.
Neither LAB nor the SNP are going to concede Holyrood to the other without a fight. And the fight is not going to be pretty.
Labour will win 13 seats in 2016 Holyrood (down from 37). That's how AMS D'Hondt works for a hated party on the slide. They lose FAST. Just ask the Lib Dems. The infighting amongst Labour hacks to get the List slots in 2016 will make anything you have ever seen in UK politics look polite.
But I thought that SLAB had (quite deliberately) made a point of appointing its PPCs for Holyrood well before the indyref result, to encourage the MPs to extract digit? No point in a game of musical chairs if every chair has a bum on it already.
More generally: some very interesting discussion tonight and some very diverse views. All good food for thought.
Slightly OT but given the lefties on here have constantly stated that this present government rule without a majority and lack legitimacy, how do they square that with the possibility a Labour minority government of which they seem quite happy at the moment.......?
little too,
I don't think the Tories on here realise how much Labour hate the SNP. We are not bedfellows. They want to end the UK. We do not. We cannot form an alliance with them for that reason. It is non-negotiable and will always overshadow any attempt at compromise. Any attempt to sidestep that reality is doomed to failure and Labour know this. Another election beckons before the year is out.
As a Tory i dont have a gut feel for Scottish politics-but surely you can do a deal??
Is the the danger for Labour that great?
Yes, they are. See my post below.
Well here is one rightwinger who entirely understands Labour's predicament re the SNP. See my many comments on here (and blogs on Telegraph, Spectator, passim). The SNP are THE mortal enemy of Labour in a way that, oddly, the Tories are not.
The Tories will happily co-exist with Labour, like Republicans and Democrats in the USA, Tories and Labour accept the pendulum of power, knowing that they must fight every five years, then rub along in parliament, they even feel a certain camaraderie (which the voters detect and find emetic).
But the SNP do not enjoy this sensation, they are outsiders who want IN: and for them to be IN they need to replace Labour in Scotland by destroying it, forever - destroying Labour in its heartland and birthplace. F*ck the pendulum of power.
And the SNP are close to doing that. Close to complete success.
Can SLAB recover? I doubt it. But for future Labour parties to have a good chance at an overall majority they need to reverse this process. It will be hugely difficult. FWIW I reckon the Tories will prosper in a FFA Home ruling Scotland more than Labour. It could easily end up SNP v Tories.
Exactly. The SNP are on the same side of the pendulum as Labour, so the only way it works is for the SNP to displace Labour altogether.
You can't pendulum between In and Out of the UK as if Out ever wins that debate is over. The pendulum is an issue of left and right and the SNP will swing with the Tories. Agreed entirely about FFA helping SCON - once the lefties in Holyrood screw things up royally (and they will) it will take a right wing Holyrood party to solve the mess.
My Greens to outpoll the Lib Dems might be a winner.
It's got to the stage now where I don't even remember to look at the Lib Dems' ratings when polls are posted. Just look at Labour and the Tories and sometimes UKIP, then move on.
Still no enduring trend for Con. This election is lost. Tories cannot break clear by enough to make any government option for them viable, given losses to their only potential major ally (and an ally that is by no means assured of cooperating), even if they can manage enough to get most seats, maybe.
No this is not overreacting to one poll. It's that we haven't seen enough of a trend of improvement for them to justify believing it will continue to improve for them by the amount they need in the very small amount of time left. Nothing anyone can say in the remainder of the campaign will be new to the electorate, surely, and if it hasn't sparked a better trend than what we've seen to date, it is not going to.
Edit: YouGov will probably show a Con+4 lead now, just to show me up.
I've also worked out new regional allocations based on a 600 seat parliament (as planned unless the boundary review rules are changed or it is voted down)
East of England - 56 seats (current entitlement 58) E Midlands - 43 seats (current entitlement 46) London - 68 seats (current entitlement 73) North East - 25 seats (current entitlement 29) North West - 68 seats (current entitlement 75) South East - 83 seats (current entitlement 84) South West - 53 seats (current entitlement 55) W Midlands - 53 seats (current entitlement 59) Yorkshire - 50 seats (current entitlement 54) Scotland - 53 seats (current entitlement 59) Wales - 29 seats (current entitlement 40) N Ireland - 16 seats (current entitlement 18)
Total - 597 seats (currently 650). I think the reason it is less than 600 is that special provisions are made for Isle of Wight to have 2 seats and for Orkney/Shetland and Western Isles
Wales loses the most due to the end of its over-representation. I'm surprised Scotland isn't going up due to the referendum but I think Scotland's population is growing less slowly than other parts of the UK.
Very interesting data on previous thread re individual constituency data.
We know East London is the fastest growing part of the UK. So East Ham and West Ham should be right at the top of the list - indeed their electorates should have grown most since 2010.
The fact they aren't there shows Individual Voter Registration has pushed people off the list.
It won't matter, of course, in East Ham and West Ham but if it's happened nationwide then it can only hurt Lab and help Con.
However the figures will have risen with the late rush to register - we really do need to see final numbers and compare to 2010.
E Ham had 88k electors in 2010, rising to 92k in 2012. It has since fallen back to 84k last year and 82k in 2015 W Ham had 84k in 2010 rising to 89k in 2013. It has now dropped back to 83k Bethnal Green was 76k in 2010 and is 76k in 2015 but has fluctuated between 73k and 79k Poplar was 71k in 2010 rising to 77k in 2015
The new people moving to E London may not all be eligible to vote if they are not Commonwealth citizens. Newham will certainly have to share a seat with another borough whenever the next review is.
My Greens to outpoll the Lib Dems might be a winner.
It's got to the stage now where I don't even remember to look at the Lib Dems' ratings when polls are posted. Just look at Labour and the Tories and sometimes UKIP, then move on.
SeanT Sturgeon will only hold another referendum if sure she can win it, or post an EU exit after a 2017 EU referendum. She knows from Quebec's experience even a 51-49% No win in a second referendum effectively kills the independence argument for good
Utter nonsense.
Quebec was lost because they waited too long. The SNP know this. 50% of Scotland wants another referendum inside 5 years, 65% within 10 years. It will be on the 2016 manifesto. The SNP know it is necessary and are already planning it.
The problem is getting the timing right. You need the oil price to recover but you also need to avoid it coinciding with the next economic downturn. You also need the UK government to agree. If you want to have one in 2017 say, I think the UK government could legitimately say no. The SNP will also need to be seen to be using the Smith Commission powers effectively
70% of Scotland thinks the Smith Commission does not go far enough.
Brent Crude is up at $65 and the UK Government is seen by Scots as being far too slow to adjust the duty rates. That was a huge hit in the Lib Dem Highlands and Orkney and Zetland. The three month wait costs thousands of jobs.
UK constitution is based on precedent, which says that a Holyrood government can demand a Referendum. Likelihood is SNP can get that power devolved anyway.
Still no enduring trend for Con. This election is lost. Tories cannot break clear by enough to make any government option for them viable, given losses to their only potential major ally (and an ally that is by no means assured of cooperating), even if they can manage enough to get most seats, maybe.
No this is not overreacting to one poll. It's that we haven't seen enough of a trend of improvement for them to justify believing it will continue to improve for them by the amount they need in the very small amount of time left.
Slightly OT but given the lefties on here have constantly stated that this present government rule without a majority and lack legitimacy, how do they square that with the possibility a Labour minority government of which they seem quite happy at the moment.......?
My suspicion is that despite the occasional comment about 'no-one having voted for this government', that would not apply to an anti-Tory majority, as that everyone voting for a party that is not the Tory party would obviously therefore automatically be fine with any arrangement that keeps the Tories out. Indeed, clearly this should have been the case last time, were it not for the traitors of the LDs, who were duty bound to do so.
(Yes, that was a strawman statement, but most people using the 'no-one voted for this' argument will be no strangers to such tactics)
Personally lack of legitimacy is not so much of an issue for me - we have the system we have and it can deliver those sorts of outcome; if we don't want that we can change the system - but the chaos line does work on me a little. That said, its impact is blunted a bit as although it appears the permutations are even more chaotic this time around, and include a party which advocates for the break up of the UK which adds something new to the mix, the relative harmony of this coalition mitigates the fear of chaos a little too,
I don't think the Tories on here realise how much Labour hate the SNP. We are not bedfellows. They want to end the UK. We do not. We cannot form an alliance with them for that reason. It is non-negotiable and will always overshadow any attempt at compromise. Any attempt to sidestep that reality is doomed to failure and Labour know this. Another election beckons before the year is out.
Labour in Scotland hate the SNP.
Labour outside Scotland. Meh, not so much.
Without SLAB MPs the view of Labour - especially as Labour in Scotland are finished with no way back - is going to change (if it ever was actually anti-SNP).
Labour without SLAB can happily work with the SNP. At least till they see what the SNP will do to them in Westminster.
No. Scottish Labour are at the heart of Labour. You wound them you wound us. The SNP have stolen Labour's clothes temporarily. But the SNP are nationalists and nationalists will steal whoever's clothes to seem popular. We won't forget where our loyalties lie and we believe in the UK. You do not. We know that any attempt at cooperation would end in disaster for us. Therefore it will not happen. Despite what the Nats say, it will not happen.
SeanT Sturgeon will only hold another referendum if sure she can win it, or post an EU exit after a 2017 EU referendum. She knows from Quebec's experience even a 51-49% No win in a second referendum effectively kills the independence argument for good
Utter nonsense.
Quebec was lost because they waited too long. The SNP know this. 50% of Scotland wants another referendum inside 5 years, 65% within 10 years. It will be on the 2016 manifesto. The SNP know it is necessary and are already planning it.
The problem is getting the timing right. You need the oil price to recover but you also need to avoid it coinciding with the next economic downturn. You also need the UK government to agree. If you want to have one in 2017 say, I think the UK government could legitimately say no. The SNP will also need to be seen to be using the Smith Commission powers effectively
IF the Tories get in and hold an EU Referendum in 2017 it will be hard not to allow a Sctish Referendum
So Scottish Sun wants the SNP, English Sun wants to stop the SNP.
Left hand talk to the right hand much?
The Scottish Sun and The Sun have had different editorial lines for at l;east 15 years. Pretty much all of Scotland know this. Are England really that ill-informed?
SeanT Sturgeon will only hold another referendum if sure she can win it, or post an EU exit after a 2017 EU referendum. She knows from Quebec's experience even a 51-49% No win in a second referendum effectively kills the independence argument for good
Utter nonsense.
Quebec was lost because they waited too long. The SNP know this. 50% of Scotland wants another referendum inside 5 years, 65% within 10 years. It will be on the 2016 manifesto. The SNP know it is necessary and are already planning it.
The problem is getting the timing right. You need the oil price to recover but you also need to avoid it coinciding with the next economic downturn. You also need the UK government to agree. If you want to have one in 2017 say, I think the UK government could legitimately say no. The SNP will also need to be seen to be using the Smith Commission powers effectively
LOL, what powers would those be , partial on road signs, what a laugh.
Still no enduring trend for Con. This election is lost. Tories cannot break clear by enough to make any government option for them viable, given losses to their only potential major ally (and an ally that is by no means assured of cooperating), even if they can manage enough to get most seats, maybe.
No this is not overreacting to one poll. It's that we haven't seen enough of a trend of improvement for them to justify believing it will continue to improve for them by the amount they need in the very small amount of time left.
Supporters of FPTP had been telling us all these years that whilst it did not necessarily give fair results, it certainly delivered a strong and stable majority government.
That would be too obviously an outlier - needs to be something like a +4, so a +6 the next day can really make everyone think there is a proper trend happening this time, in time for another tie or Lab lead from YouGov (which can be ignored by some) and then the same from a phone pollster or something brings is right back.
If the Libdems only get 7% next Thursday then sub 15 sets is definitely in play. Their lack of any upward movement in the polls over the last 4 weeks is a bit of a surprise but they just have made no progress at all. Certainly Jack's Arse predictions of ~30 seats is beginning to look a tad optimistic...
The English Sun's front page makes me want to throw up a bit tbh. Why do the Scots get the good one
There's a tea towel. You can get it in Scottish tourist traps, about all the inventions Scotland made and how they stop an Englishman committing suicide (can't remember all the lines). But the gist of it, is pretty much this comparison. Scotland gets all the good stuff because, well, we have to put up with England.
Still no enduring trend for Con. This election is lost. Tories cannot break clear by enough to make any government option for them viable, given losses to their only potential major ally (and an ally that is by no means assured of cooperating), even if they can manage enough to get most seats, maybe.
No this is not overreacting to one poll. It's that we haven't seen enough of a trend of improvement for them to justify believing it will continue to improve for them by the amount they need in the very small amount of time left.
A week is a long time in politics.
It can be. On very rare occasions can it be. Generally long time gut feelings about parties seems to win out. And the feelings of the public for this election seems pretty set; even if they express disquiet about some of the consequences of what the polls predict they will do, it doesn't seem to be enough to change anything. Says my gut.
Only 5% report getting their news from a newspaper. ANY newspaper. Compared with 46% from television. OK, there are some who say they get their news from facebook.com (you what?) and bbc online, but basically the TV coverage is ALL THAT MATTERS.
We had our final hustings this evening - 100 people, big UKIP section of the audience cheering their man to the echo. Interesting!
To respond to Peter Buss last thread - if you click on "Quote" the comment you're quoting will turn up in the comment box with appropriate tags. If you only want to quote in part, carefully delete the bit you don't want, without disturbing the tags. If you want to delete a whole comment in an exchange, remove the text with the tag on each side.
The English Sun's front page makes me want to throw up a bit tbh. Why do the Scots get the good one
There's a tea towel. You can get it in Scottish tourist traps, about all the inventions Scotland made and how they stop an Englishman committing suicide (can't remember all the lines). But the gist of it, is pretty much this comparison. Scotland gets all the good stuff because, well, we have to put up with England.
SNP should be delivering me some nice gifts in a few days
So Scottish Sun wants the SNP, English Sun wants to stop the SNP.
Left hand talk to the right hand much?
The Scottish Sun and The Sun have had different editorial lines for at l;east 15 years. Pretty much all of Scotland know this. Are England really that ill-informed?
That's not the issue, but for two branches of a business that have basically the same name and logo to lead with opposing themes is entertaining to say the least. Are you really that much lacking in a sense of humour not to see that.
Jon Sopel @BBCJonSopel 19m19 minutes ago Ok. Am befuddled. Sun to back Tories 'to stop SNP ruining the country'. But Scottish Sun backing SNP. @rupertmurdoch help! #GE2015
If the SNP scare stories haven't held we are in danger of a Labour Liberal coalition. Everyone in Liberal seats needs to vote anyone but Liberal. Keep them below 10 and we will have a solid SNP led government.
Jon Sopel @BBCJonSopel 19m19 minutes ago Ok. Am befuddled. Sun to back Tories 'to stop SNP ruining the country'. But Scottish Sun backing SNP. @rupertmurdoch help! #GE2015
There is a common purpose and common enemy in both.
Comments
1) Economy - the general, positive reason, to appeal to every possible
2) SNP - The negative reason, focusing exclusively on the English vote of any political colour
3) EU referendum - the 'no need for UKIP' reason, focusing more narrowly on the former Tories in UKIP.
Although the Tories will be disappointed, The Sun "Why they get our vote pages 2,3,4,5,6 and 7"? If you really believed in them you'd give over pages 8,9 and 10 as well.
Left hand talk to the right hand much?
There are plenty of English etc in the SNp, right to the top levels.
Plato, I agree, a particularly amusing acronym indeed
On the other hand ... in England ...
https://twitter.com/BBCJamesCook/status/593517556628992000
He has no principles beyond that.
But seriously-you both want more spending , welfare cuts reversed etc
Are you really saying that you would prefer a TORY Govt to doing a deal with SNP?
I just cant see the PLP doing this.
http://goo.gl/9RfFdf
They can put up any fight they want. It won;t work. No-one is listening to Labour in Scotland.
Neck and neck: our latest from @ComResPolls: Con 35% (-1) Lab 35% (+3) Lib 7% (-1) UKIP 11% (+1) Green 6% (+1
More generally: some very interesting discussion tonight and some very diverse views. All good food for thought.
You can't pendulum between In and Out of the UK as if Out ever wins that debate is over. The pendulum is an issue of left and right and the SNP will swing with the Tories. Agreed entirely about FFA helping SCON - once the lefties in Holyrood screw things up royally (and they will) it will take a right wing Holyrood party to solve the mess.
Its the BBC
Frankly I'm surprised Labour are that far behind
No this is not overreacting to one poll. It's that we haven't seen enough of a trend of improvement for them to justify believing it will continue to improve for them by the amount they need in the very small amount of time left. Nothing anyone can say in the remainder of the campaign will be new to the electorate, surely, and if it hasn't sparked a better trend than what we've seen to date, it is not going to.
Edit: YouGov will probably show a Con+4 lead now, just to show me up.
W Ham had 84k in 2010 rising to 89k in 2013. It has now dropped back to 83k
Bethnal Green was 76k in 2010 and is 76k in 2015 but has fluctuated between 73k and 79k
Poplar was 71k in 2010 rising to 77k in 2015
The new people moving to E London may not all be eligible to vote if they are not Commonwealth citizens. Newham will certainly have to share a seat with another borough whenever the next review is.
Brent Crude is up at $65 and the UK Government is seen by Scots as being far too slow to adjust the duty rates. That was a huge hit in the Lib Dem Highlands and Orkney and Zetland. The three month wait costs thousands of jobs.
UK constitution is based on precedent, which says that a Holyrood government can demand a Referendum. Likelihood is SNP can get that power devolved anyway.
A week is a long time in politics.
The Nats know this.
But they do help reaffirm the readership's feelings.
I reckon the SUN will encourage UKIP weavers to vote Tory on Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.
Sun in Scotland loves the SNP
Come again ?
Certainly Jack's Arse predictions of ~30 seats is beginning to look a tad optimistic...
Intrigued by YG's profile based on 843 panel members in Broxtowe:
https://yougov.co.uk/#/constituency/78/profile/news
Only 5% report getting their news from a newspaper. ANY newspaper. Compared with 46% from television. OK, there are some who say they get their news from facebook.com (you what?) and bbc online, but basically the TV coverage is ALL THAT MATTERS.
We had our final hustings this evening - 100 people, big UKIP section of the audience cheering their man to the echo. Interesting!
To respond to Peter Buss last thread - if you click on "Quote" the comment you're quoting will turn up in the comment box with appropriate tags. If you only want to quote in part, carefully delete the bit you don't want, without disturbing the tags. If you want to delete a whole comment in an exchange, remove the text with the tag on each side.
54% of voters think England and Scotland should set tax rate together
The hypocrisy of the The Sun.
Ok. Am befuddled. Sun to back Tories 'to stop SNP ruining the country'. But Scottish Sun backing SNP. @rupertmurdoch help! #GE2015
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/593524967666384897