Still no enduring trend for Con. This election is lost. Tories cannot break clear by enough to make any government option for them viable, given losses to their only potential major ally (and an ally that is by no means assured of cooperating), even if they can manage enough to get most seats, maybe.
No this is not overreacting to one poll. It's that we haven't seen enough of a trend of improvement for them to justify believing it will continue to improve for them by the amount they need in the very small amount of time left. Nothing anyone can say in the remainder of the campaign will be new to the electorate, surely, and if it hasn't sparked a better trend than what we've seen to date, it is not going to.
Edit: YouGov will probably show a Con+4 lead now, just to show me up.
Why would you want the Tories to break clear?
We're moving towards the best possible future for Britain - an SNP controlled government. The most popular government party since the second world war gets to run the country. That's a Win/Win right up until Scotland casts those outside Scotland away to fend for themselves.
But you will be happier standing on your own two feet.
The English Sun's front page is mainly just a bit weird, but its basic '3 Reasons to Vote Tory' is clear and concise in a way the Tories themselves haven't been in this campaign. How much was Crosby paid?
Supporters of FPTP had been telling us all these years that whilst it did not necessarily give fair results, it certainly delivered a strong and stable majority government.
Come again ?
It's over. It's now delivering neither fair results nor stable government...
Only 5% report getting their news from a newspaper. ANY newspaper. Compared with 46% from television. OK, there are some who say they get their news from facebook.com (you what?) and bbc online, but basically the TV coverage is ALL THAT MATTERS.
We had our final hustings this evening - 100 people, big UKIP section of the audience cheering their man to the echo. Interesting!
To respond to Peter Buss last thread - if you click on "Quote" the comment you're quoting will turn up in the comment box with appropriate tags. If you only want to quote in part, carefully delete the bit you don't want, without disturbing the tags. If you want to delete a whole comment in an exchange, remove the text with the tag on each side.
@Nick Palmer- so you are trying to represent a constituency that enjoys going to the pub, thinks that religion is a great evil, do not tend to read papers but likes different cuisines, and above all else, above absolutely everything else looks for a bargain.
Well there you go Nick. Easy to try and get their vote.
Still no enduring trend for Con. This election is lost. Tories cannot break clear by enough to make any government option for them viable, given losses to their only potential major ally (and an ally that is by no means assured of cooperating), even if they can manage enough to get most seats, maybe.
No this is not overreacting to one poll. It's that we haven't seen enough of a trend of improvement for them to justify believing it will continue to improve for them by the amount they need in the very small amount of time left. Nothing anyone can say in the remainder of the campaign will be new to the electorate, surely, and if it hasn't sparked a better trend than what we've seen to date, it is not going to.
Edit: YouGov will probably show a Con+4 lead now, just to show me up.
Why would you want the Tories to break clear?
We're moving towards the best possible future for Britain - an SNP controlled government. The most popular government party since the second world war gets to run the country. That's a Win/Win right up until Scotland casts those outside Scotland away to fend for themselves.
But you will be happier standing on your own two feet.
I will be emotionally devastated by the end of the union but I am resigned to that. But it doesn't matter whether I would prefer Con break away or not - I merely laid out why I cannot see it happening if it has not already. I don't think an SNP-Lab alliance necessarily need be as destructive as the worst case scenarios put it, though with the sides needing to fight hard at HolyRood very soon it does not encourage a peaceful arrangement to say the least. And that is more pressing. With the SNP winning a landslide the union is already dead - I cannot see them making the mistakes of PQ in Canada - so its about management of the nation in other ways now. I don't think Ed M would be a disastrous PM, I think his hands will be too constrained to be one, but though I am one of those oddballs who did agree with the austerity agenda and was angry the Tories failed in their plan for it, so I do have some trepidation about throwing caution to the wind.
Ashcroft's polls at constituency level show a rough ratio of 2:1 LD switchers to be the breaking point for at which Labour take the seat, and the Tories lose it. Below 2:1 the Tories tend to hold.
Tonight's Comres marginals poll shows a real aversion among undecided LD/Kippers to any form of Lab/SNP arrangement.
It's going to decide the election.
Even if you are right, which I am far from convinced is the case, it's not much of a positive basis for the next 5 years if the Tories could only scrape through on the back of SNP scare stories by the right-wing media. The Indyref was won on a similar basis and look how well that has worked out.
The Betfair Next PM market seems to be dislocated from the polls - Cameron drifted immediately after the MORI poll.
I'm green on this market (or at least I could be at cash out, for about 5% of total stake - Cameron can go to 2.86 before I'm in the notional red) but curious all the same.
My theory is that people are taking the number of seats as a done deal within a certain range, and what's really moving the Next PM market is the statements of the parties about what deals they will and won't do. Anyone got any advance on that?
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You'd have to go back to 1923 to find a more fragmented parliament...
We're moving towards the best possible future for Britain - an SNP controlled government. The most popular government party since the second world war gets to run the country. That's a Win/Win right up until Scotland casts those outside Scotland away to fend for themselves.
But you will be happier standing on your own two feet.
Well there you go Nick. Easy to try and get their vote.
Then at 10:02, the above question.
I'm green on this market (or at least I could be at cash out, for about 5% of total stake - Cameron can go to 2.86 before I'm in the notional red) but curious all the same.
My theory is that people are taking the number of seats as a done deal within a certain range, and what's really moving the Next PM market is the statements of the parties about what deals they will and won't do. Anyone got any advance on that?