Just heard on the radio news that Clegg has ruled out a coalition with Labour /SNP has brought a couple of thoughts to mind.
If as expected, the LibDems get their respective backsides spanked, will Clegg be their leader or even an MP? As I understand it, it is the LibDems members who will decide after any talks what their position to coalition or C&S will be.
Here's two cricket questions to which I wonder if anyone can supply an answer:
1) For the second week in a row there is no county games taking part on a Saturday - why don't the games which start of a Sunday instead start on the Saturday ?
2) Moeen Ali - what was the point in bringing him to the West Indies when Joe Root can already bowl offspin better than him and Adil Rashid was already there as a spin bowling allrounder ?
I think that the answer to 1) is thatthe Powers That Be feel there are lots of ‘competitive” sporting attractions on a Saturday, bit not so many on a Sunday. Essex has but one Saturday game, of any sort, all year. In September, when the schools re-open, the games are Tues-Fri! Agree it seems strange!
As for 2) I think Moeen Ali offers a better batting option. There was a discussion on TMS too about the advanatges of bringing a young player on tour just to be around the team. Not sure about that myself; England once took an Essex fast bowler under those circumstances. He didn’t play at all on tour and disappeared from the County scene to, IIRC, work the City a few months afterwards.
I'm not impressed with the continued speculation and focus on the health of Nigel Farage. If one of the other leaders had a known disability I seriously doubt we'd be hearing about it on a continued basis with undertones that it makes them unfit to hold office/be an MP.
Politicians are not a famously healthy bunch. It is a life that tends to take a toll of coronaries and liver.
Aren't doctors more likely than non-doctors to be drug addicts?
"Do I detect here some growing concern among Scottish Tories that the anti-Scottish tone of the Crosby led Cameron campaign is snuffing out the dying embers of the Conservative and Unionist Party branch office? "
I think it goes wider than that. I think there are many beyond the borders of Scotland who find Cameron's English Nationalism just as unattractive as Salmond's Scottish Nationalism.
Just heard on the radio news that Clegg has ruled out a coalition with Labour /SNP has brought a couple of thoughts to mind.
If as expected, the LibDems get their respective backsides spanked, will Clegg be their leader or even an MP? As I understand it, it is the LibDems members who will decide after any talks what their position to coalition or C&S will be.
I agree. I would take anything Clegg says regarding post-election deals with a large pinch of salt. He has nothing like the strength of hand he did in 2010 in leading his party's opinion on the matter.
You're right that if the Lib Dems do lose a great many seats, Clegg will have to go. If nothing else, it's difficult to see how he could rebuild the party when he is responsible for many of the proximate reasons for its electoral disaster (though the seeds of its strategic schizophrenia can't be laid at his door).
In any case, I'm not sure what he means by it. Suppose we end up with something like
Con 280 Lab 275 SNP 50 LD 25 Others 2 NI 18
And suppose the SNP remain true to their word that they will under no circumstance countenance a Tory government. The Lab+SNP MPs alone would have the power to vote Cameron out of office. Would Clegg really rule out any involvement in such an arrangement and - implicitly - try to persuade both parties of the current government to stay in office? Apart from being absurd, it would tear his party apart. It's one thing backing the Tories when they had a clear mandate and when Labour was tired; it's quite another to do so when it could not deliver anything.
However, almost a fifth of Lib Dem MPs in the last parliament came from Scotland: a greater proportion than in the Labour Party. That fact cannot go ignored in thinking of how the Oranges view the Yellows.
The election is now not between Tory vs Labour but between the methods of Yougov, Populus vs Ashcroft, ICM
One group will turn out to be wrong.
Newsnight reporting tonight that the Tory high command are upbeat about their Jock bashing strategy, and even Labour privately are admitting it is working.
Does Nick (P) ?????
Nope. If it was working, the polls would be shifting.
My personal suspicion is that the whole 'SNP might have UK hostage' story comes up on the doorstep because it is something people have read in the newspapers in recent days. I think us politcos and punters forget what it is like to be asked your views on the doorstep and to have to think of something cogent to say on the spot. It will pass. I'm holding to EICIPM.
Absolutely - it's like a test for many people - they just try and say something that doesn't make them seem ignorant.
Is the Conservative English manifesto just as stupid, tokenistic and wrongly essentialist as everyone said Labour's Scottish/BME/women's manifestos were?
The Tories are expediting Scottish independence...
The irony is that they call themselves the Conservative and Unionist Party.
I thought that originally, but the Scots aren't going anywhere for a while now. The economics of independence have totally collapsed - the witterings of a few fundamentalists notwithstanding. It looks like we'll all be stuck in a loveless marriage; necessity, rather than any affection, holding things together - at least until the oil price has staged a sustained recovery.
I always thought that Nationalism was something people were prepared to fight wars over. It seems weird for the decision to come down to basically a question of economics, and I'm still not sure that it does.
How many Eurosceptics would sign up for a Federal Europe in return for €500 a year from the Germans? Precious few I would have thought, so why would Scottish nationhood come down to a question of pounds and pence. Bizarre attitude.
Just heard on the radio news that Clegg has ruled out a coalition with Labour /SNP has brought a couple of thoughts to mind.
If as expected, the LibDems get their respective backsides spanked, will Clegg be their leader or even an MP? As I understand it, it is the LibDems members who will decide after any talks what their position to coalition or C&S will be.
I agree. I would take anything Clegg says regarding post-election deals with a large pinch of salt. He has nothing like the strength of hand he did in 2010 in leading his party's opinion on the matter.
You're right that if the Lib Dems do lose a great many seats, Clegg will have to go. If nothing else, it's difficult to see how he could rebuild the party when he is responsible for many of the proximate reasons for its electoral disaster (though the seeds of its strategic schizophrenia can't be laid at his door).
In any case, I'm not sure what he means by it. Suppose we end up with something like
Con 280 Lab 275 SNP 50 LD 25 Others 2 NI 18
And suppose the SNP remain true to their word that they will under no circumstance countenance a Tory government. The Lab+SNP MPs alone would have the power to vote Cameron out of office. Would Clegg really rule out any involvement in such an arrangement and - implicitly - try to persuade both parties of the current government to stay in office? Apart from being absurd, it would tear his party apart. It's one thing backing the Tories when they had a clear mandate and when Labour was tired; it's quite another to do so when it could not deliver anything.
However, almost a fifth of Lib Dem MPs in the last parliament came from Scotland: a greater proportion than in the Labour Party. That fact cannot go ignored in thinking of how the Oranges view the Yellows.
I'm not impressed with the continued speculation and focus on the health of Nigel Farage. If one of the other leaders had a known disability I seriously doubt we'd be hearing about it on a continued basis with undertones that it makes them unfit to hold office/be an MP.
Between his plane crash and his brush with cancer, Farage has had problems in the past. It would not surprise me if he had continuing back pain as a residue of the crash. The smoking and drinking are taking its toll too though.
Politicians are not a famously healthy bunch. It is a life that tends to take a toll of coronaries and liver.
I don't doubt it. But why should it be the concern of the media?
I'm not impressed with the continued speculation and focus on the health of Nigel Farage. If one of the other leaders had a known disability I seriously doubt we'd be hearing about it on a continued basis with undertones that it makes them unfit to hold office/be an MP.
Politicians are not a famously healthy bunch. It is a life that tends to take a toll of coronaries and liver.
Aren't doctors more likely than non-doctors to be drug addicts?
That's got very little to do with their job and a lot to do with the fact that they're overpaid.
I'm not impressed with the continued speculation and focus on the health of Nigel Farage. If one of the other leaders had a known disability I seriously doubt we'd be hearing about it on a continued basis with undertones that it makes them unfit to hold office/be an MP.
Politicians are not a famously healthy bunch. It is a life that tends to take a toll of coronaries and liver.
Aren't doctors more likely than non-doctors to be drug addicts?
I think that was the case years ago, but not now. Most of my colleagues are quite boringly abstemious.
Doctors rates of divorce are lower than the general population too. In part it is because white male Doctors do no longer dominate numerically or culturally.
Here's two cricket questions to which I wonder if anyone can supply an answer:
1) For the second week in a row there is no county games taking part on a Saturday - why don't the games which start of a Sunday instead start on the Saturday ?
2) Moeen Ali - what was the point in bringing him to the West Indies when Joe Root can already bowl offspin better than him and Adil Rashid was already there as a spin bowling allrounder ?
I agree 1. is very strange.
I think Moeen is a better bowler than Root but not really a front line spinner.
I think Root has real potential as a bowler but has never been used enough.
He has much more potential as a batsman. Leave him unencumbered by expectations of all-rounderness and captaincy and England have a truly great world-class player in their ranks for a decade.
The real problem with spinners is the failure to find a new Swann. Rather than try to shoe-horn players into that position which they can't fill, England need to work on developing two or three who might in the next five years. In the meantime, the team will simply have to operate differently. We should not repeat the mistakes of the 1990s when selectors were constantly trying to find a new Botham - who didn't exist until Flintoff - and consequently chose any number of all-rounders who were neither good enough bowlers nor batsmen to merit their place in either discipline.
Root currently averages 57 in test cricket. Isn't that enough to be going on with? That he's an occasional change spinner should be a bonus, not a criticism.
Salmond took a party from less than 20 per cent of the vote at Westminster to nearly 50 per cent.
He took independence support from below 30 per cent to 45 per cent.
He took the SNP into minority Government and then to majority Government.
He was several times as good as you think.
Agree totally. In the 21st century so far, he has been the most outstanding political leader in Britain whether supporters of other parties agree or not.
A person has to be judged on results - not whether you like him or not.
Precisely.But that's also why some people may perhaps fear him - they may think that he is a lot more cunning (and capable) than the Westminster politicians. And they may be right.
"Just heard on the radio news that Clegg has ruled out a coalition with Labour /SNP has brought a couple of thoughts to mind."
Why he's done this is a mystery. It just seems like a way of losing more voters. The Lib Dems whole raison d'etre is to follow the electorates wishes. I wonder what what's left of his diminishing party think about it?
Despite Labour's small but seemingly resolute lead in tonight's YouGov poll, Chris Hanretty's latest updated 2015 UK Parliamentary Election Forecast shows the Tories as having a 19 seat lead, i.e. 286 vs Labour's 267 which is marginally ahead of Sporting's 15 seat lead for the Blue Team who have mid-spread prices of 285 for the Tories vs 270 for Labour.
peter- it was accompanied on Newsnight that the Jock bashing is working- Tory high command is pleased how this scaremongering, strategy is working for them. Also, why Clegg has refused any kind of deal with the SNP- he wants his fair share of Jock bashing too.
Mr. Roger, the SNP would be able to collapse the government at any time. The Lib Dems would be hit by the damage done to a smaller party in coalition *and* be at the mercy of the SNP.
Lord Ashcroft, like Tim Montgomerie is not Dave's number 1 fan - though he also observes:
the Conservatives holding on to more seats overall against Labour than they would with a uniform national swing, but failing to gain seats that they would otherwise win from the Lib Dems.
At the same time, my polling has Labour winning fewer Tory and Lib Dem seats overall, and losing more to the SNP, than the national polls suggest ought to be the case. It is, in fact, the Lib Dems who are doing best in the marginals, holding on to more seats against Labour and (particularly) the Conservatives than they would with a uniform swing.
Anecdote Alert: I visited a friend yesterday in her shared house with multiple tenants.
The area behind the letterbox was strewn with red leaflets,one yellow one and 2 independent ones.not a single blue one and this is a key London marginal the Blues are defending.
Ashcroft is correct when he points out the Blues lack ground support.
I'm not impressed with the continued speculation and focus on the health of Nigel Farage. If one of the other leaders had a known disability I seriously doubt we'd be hearing about it on a continued basis with undertones that it makes them unfit to hold office/be an MP.
Politicians are not a famously healthy bunch. It is a life that tends to take a toll of coronaries and liver.
Aren't doctors more likely than non-doctors to be drug addicts?
That's got very little to do with their job and a lot to do with the fact that they're overpaid.
Nothing to do with easy access to narcotics then? A very silly comment.
Despite Labour's small but seemingly resolute lead in tonight's YouGov poll, Chris Hanretty's latest updated 2015 UK Parliamentary Election Forecast shows the Tories as having a 19 seat lead, i.e. 286 vs Labour's 267 which is marginally ahead of Sporting's 15 seat lead for the Blue Team who have mid-spread prices of 285 for the Tories vs 270 for Labour.
peter- it was accompanied on Newsnight that the Jock bashing is working- Tory high command is pleased how this scaremongering, strategy is working for them. Also, why Clegg has refused any kind of deal with the SNP- he wants his fair share of Jock bashing too.
This last point looks right to me.
I wonder whether Nick Clegg has said less than is thought? I don't think he's ruling out Lab/Lib cooperation if Labour have most seats or such a government that requires only SNP abstention to operate. He is saying that the party with most seats should have a full chance to see whether it can form a government.
Lord Ashcroft, like Tim Montgomerie is not Dave's number 1 fan - though he also observes:
the Conservatives holding on to more seats overall against Labour than they would with a uniform national swing, but failing to gain seats that they would otherwise win from the Lib Dems.
At the same time, my polling has Labour winning fewer Tory and Lib Dem seats overall, and losing more to the SNP, than the national polls suggest ought to be the case. It is, in fact, the Lib Dems who are doing best in the marginals, holding on to more seats against Labour and (particularly) the Conservatives than they would with a uniform swing.
Anecdote Alert: I visited a friend yesterday in her shared house with multiple tenants.
The area behind the letterbox was strewn with red leaflets,one yellow one and 2 independent ones.not a single blue one and this is a key London marginal the Blues are defending.
Ashcroft is correct when he points out the Blues lack ground support.
OTOH .... the residents are avidly reading the Conservative literature with the fervour of converts and keeping them as cherished keepsakes for future generations, whilst leaving the litter on the floor.
Clegg's public announcement is to ensure (if he loses his seat and the leadership), the LD's are not taken over by the left of the party. His inner team, and Clegg himself, are not keen on the Social Liberal Forum (or Socialist Liberal Forum as Danny and Nick like to joke about)
Plus, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg genuinely dislike each other.
Very disappointing polls yesterday. Spelling out the honest facts about SNP and Labour doesn't appear to be having much of an impact at all.
These things take time to sink in - whether the time remaining is sufficient - who knows?
How much time do you think it takes to show up in polling?
The first Miliband in Salmond's pocket was in the first week of the campaign. We are now in the fifth week. The Salmond animation was in the second week, they've been screaming "SNP Bad" all campaign and admitted only really focused on it after the second debate.
But the second debate was now 9 days ago. NINE days. There's only 11 days left.
"Just heard on the radio news that Clegg has ruled out a coalition with Labour /SNP has brought a couple of thoughts to mind."
Why he's done this is a mystery. It just seems like a way of losing more voters. The Lib Dems whole raison d'etre is to follow the electorates wishes. I wonder what what's left of his diminishing party think about it?
I thought this time round the LibDem offering was broadly summed up as the Baby-Eating Bishop of Bath & Wells policy: "no form of electoral depravity is too low for me. Animal, mineral or vegetable - I'll do anything with anyone (unless, that is, I undermine Lynton's party line by appearing to indicate the Nats aren't the greatest threat to civilisation as we know it)"
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 21st April Projection) :
Con 304 (+1) .. Lab 249 (-4) .. LibDem 30 (+1) .. SNP 40 (NC) .. PC 3 (+1) .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 (+1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - Con Hold Pudsey - Likely Con Hold Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain Warwickshire North - TCTC Cambridge - LibDem Hold Ipswich - Con Hold Watford - TCTC Croydon Central - Con Hold Enfield North - Likely Lab Gain Cornwall North - TCTC Great Yarmouth - Con Hold Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
Changes From 21 Apr - No Change.
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes Gain/Hold - Over 2500 .......................................................................................
ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division JNN - Jacobite News Network ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain
Is it just me or has the election gotten boring in the last 7 days or so? Of course there is still the mathematical uncertainty, but the manifestos were a dud. Where is our bigotgate or Cleggmania?
It's just you. This is the most intriguing election, for so many reasons, in many decades. Anyone who claims otherwise is a twit, with zero hindsight.
this election is like watching a slow motion car crash as we head into to being governed by the most dangerous prime minister the country has ever known, I fear for my children if EdM get the keys to number 10
Calm down dear and stop reading the Daily Mail for a few days you'll feel much better.
I'm in my 60's and in every election I've lived through the prospect of a Labour Government has been predicted to be some sort of apocalypse. Most of our press is owned by wealthy right wingers, people like Murdoch and the Barclay Brothers don't put their money into newspapers because that's where it gets the best return, they do it so they have propaganda tools at hand to scare people into voting in a way that best suits their business & political interests. It works less well as the years go by
Responding to the Salmond the pickpocket image, Twitterers are showing a combination of intellectual criticism and protestations of "ooh, how dirty!"
This is an election. Elections are about emotion, not intellect. And it's politics. Politics is dirty. This looks like rather an effective poster from where I'm standing. The agency ain't going to lose any accounts over this one.
LAB haven't got the sense to take the fight to the SNP (advice to LAB HQ if you're reading: send some heavyweights north of the border, right now!). But CON obviously have.
My prediction is a CON plurality and another CON-LD coalition. Next most likely result: a CON majority. Next: a CON-SNP deal, doubtless spun as something completely different from a coalition, 'pact', 'S&C', etc., but a deal nonetheless.
The English question looms. In the third scenario above, it will have to be raised in a big way; there will hardly be any choice. In the other two scenarios, CON will probably raise it. Why? Because it's in their interests, and the sad reality is that LAB missed their chance. (I am a LAB member, by the way.)
The general picture doesn't match Lord Ashcroft's article very well.
Mind you, only Bristol North West and Bristol West look decided, and even the latter has an unfortunate flaw of not prompting for the Greens. Were the students back at uni by the time of the poll?
"I thought this time round the LibDem offering was broadly summed up as the Baby-Eating Bishop of Bath & Wells policy: "no form of electoral depravity is too low for me. Animal, mineral or vegetable - I'll do anything with anyone (unless, that is, I undermine Lynton's party line by appearing to indicate the Nats aren't the greatest threat to civilisation as we know it)" "
I think that sums up the Lib Dems (Clegg in particular) perfectly!
"Just heard on the radio news that Clegg has ruled out a coalition with Labour /SNP has brought a couple of thoughts to mind."
Why he's done this is a mystery. It just seems like a way of losing more voters. The Lib Dems whole raison d'etre is to follow the electorates wishes. I wonder what what's left of his diminishing party think about it?
Almost certainly Clegg appears to be in the pocket of Osborne. The Tories are fighting a 285 seat strategy (and probably quite confident that they will end up with at least more votes or seats and probably both) and they want to use Clegg to undermine Labour post election.
Clegg's is the seat I want Labour to win most in the country. Then he can come out and join the Tories properly instead of masquerading with this ridiculous charade of pretending to be a liberal.
The general picture doesn't match Lord Ashcroft's article very well.
Mind you, only Bristol North West and Bristol West look decided, and even the latter has an unfortunate flaw of not prompting for the Greens. Were the students back at uni by the time of the poll?
I'd say this poll is mildly encouraging for the Tories.
The general picture doesn't match Lord Ashcroft's article very well.
Mind you, only Bristol North West and Bristol West look decided, and even the latter has an unfortunate flaw of not prompting for the Greens. Were the students back at uni by the time of the poll?
The general picture doesn't match Lord Ashcroft's article very well.
Mind you, only Bristol North West and Bristol West look decided, and even the latter has an unfortunate flaw of not prompting for the Greens. Were the students back at uni by the time of the poll?
I'd say this poll is mildly encouraging for the Tories.
The general picture doesn't match Lord Ashcroft's article very well.
Mind you, only Bristol North West and Bristol West look decided, and even the latter has an unfortunate flaw of not prompting for the Greens. Were the students back at uni by the time of the poll?
I'd say this poll is mildly encouraging for the Tories.
It's the first time that Lord Ashcroft has produced constituency polling that hints that the Conservatives might be gaining some ground.
Ages ago (probably 2-3 years ago now) I suggested that if the Scots voted Yes, it'd be great for the SNP north of the border and the Conservatives south of the border (on the basis that, for negotiation, those two parties make sense for Scotland, and England/Wales respectively).
Obviously, the SNP will make gains, although the scale remains to be seen. It'll be interesting to see how the Conservatives do.
peter- it was accompanied on Newsnight that the Jock bashing is working- Tory high command is pleased how this scaremongering, strategy is working for them. Also, why Clegg has refused any kind of deal with the SNP- he wants his fair share of Jock bashing too.
What they want is to take votes from LAB. Bashing Jocks is the means, not the end. Cameron - and if necessary, Cameron and Clegg - will be quite capable of doing a deal with the SNP after the election if that's what they need to do.
The SNP are the best thing that ever happened to the Tory party.
Here's why:
- in Scotland, they're taking all the LAB seats
- in England, they're allowing CON (and even LD) to scare people into changing their voting intention away from LAB to CON (or even LD)
No named candidates in the Lord A polls ..... again.
Even despite that Reckless gets a boost (3% deficit rather than 7%) when people think about their own constituency. Not unreasonable to speculate that if there is a named candidate effect, it would amplify the thinking locally effect.
"Clegg's is the seat I want Labour to win most in the country. Then he can come out and join the Tories properly instead of masquerading with this ridiculous charade of pretending to be a liberal."
There's no way of reading todays statement by Clegg other than he will only enter into a coalition with the Tories. For it to be otherwise Labour would have to have some control over the SNP which clearly they haven't got.
I imagine Labour supporters are flooding Sheffield
Here's two cricket questions to which I wonder if anyone can supply an answer:
1) For the second week in a row there is no county games taking part on a Saturday - why don't the games which start of a Sunday instead start on the Saturday ?
2) Moeen Ali - what was the point in bringing him to the West Indies when Joe Root can already bowl offspin better than him and Adil Rashid was already there as a spin bowling allrounder ?
I agree 1. is very strange.
I think Moeen is a better bowler than Root but not really a front line spinner.
I think Root has real potential as a bowler but has never been used enough.
He has much more potential as a batsman. Leave him unencumbered by expectations of all-rounderness and captaincy and England have a truly great world-class player in their ranks for a decade.
The real problem with spinners is the failure to find a new Swann. Rather than try to shoe-horn players into that position which they can't fill, England need to work on developing two or three who might in the next five years. In the meantime, the team will simply have to operate differently. We should not repeat the mistakes of the 1990s when selectors were constantly trying to find a new Botham - who didn't exist until Flintoff - and consequently chose any number of all-rounders who were neither good enough bowlers nor batsmen to merit their place in either discipline.
Root currently averages 57 in test cricket. Isn't that enough to be going on with? That he's an occasional change spinner should be a bonus, not a criticism.
J Kallis is an example of how you can be the best batsman in the world and still be a test class bowler.
Often the ability to perform both disciplines removes pressure rather than adds to it.
You also make the mistake of overrating Flintoff. He could certainly produce some inspirational and match winning performances but most of his England career was mediocre to rubbish.
Tony Greig had significantly better averages and performances than Flintoff.
In retrospect the England team when Botham made his debut in 1977 must be a contender for their strongest ever:
Responding to the Salmond the pickpocket image, Twitterers are showing a combination of intellectual criticism and protestations of "ooh, how dirty!"
This is an election. Elections are about emotion, not intellect. And it's politics. Politics is dirty. This looks like rather an effective poster from where I'm standing. The agency ain't going to lose any accounts over this one.
LAB haven't got the sense to take the fight to the SNP (advice to LAB HQ if you're reading: send some heavyweights north of the border, right now!). But CON obviously have.
My prediction is a CON plurality and another CON-LD coalition. Next most likely result: a CON majority. Next: a CON-SNP deal, doubtless spun as something completely different from a coalition, 'pact', 'S&C', etc., but a deal nonetheless.
The English question looms. In the third scenario above, it will have to be raised in a big way; there will hardly be any choice. In the other two scenarios, CON will probably raise it. Why? Because it's in their interests, and the sad reality is that LAB missed their chance. (I am a LAB member, by the way.)
You keep posting this nonsense about how Labour should be doing more and doing better against the SNP.
There is no political strategy Labour could use to stop their imminent wipe out in Scotland. The Shadow Foreign Secretary is about to be gutted by a 20 year old student purely because he is Labour and she is SNP.
Labour already called in the big guns they have available. Most would be toxic - Miliband and Balls would only lower their vote. They sent Murphy north and he's about to be slaughtered. They called up Gordon Brown and he's being laughed at.
Nothing Labour can do will change what is happening.
Just heard on the radio news that Clegg has ruled out a coalition with Labour /SNP has brought a couple of thoughts to mind.
If as expected, the LibDems get their respective backsides spanked, will Clegg be their leader or even an MP? As I understand it, it is the LibDems members who will decide after any talks what their position to coalition or C&S will be.
Not sure that is wise given that the Lib Dems are heavily dependent on Labour/left tactical votes to hold on to most of their seats.
"Just heard on the radio news that Clegg has ruled out a coalition with Labour /SNP has brought a couple of thoughts to mind."
Why he's done this is a mystery. It just seems like a way of losing more voters. The Lib Dems whole raison d'etre is to follow the electorates wishes. I wonder what what's left of his diminishing party think about it?
Almost certainly Clegg appears to be in the pocket of Osborne. The Tories are fighting a 285 seat strategy (and probably quite confident that they will end up with at least more votes or seats and probably both) and they want to use Clegg to undermine Labour post election.
Clegg's is the seat I want Labour to win most in the country. Then he can come out and join the Tories properly instead of masquerading with this ridiculous charade of pretending to be a liberal.
Yes, because Tories always join the Liberals to enhance their career prospects! (Churchill did, obviously, but precious few since).
Just heard on the radio news that Clegg has ruled out a coalition with Labour /SNP has brought a couple of thoughts to mind.
If as expected, the LibDems get their respective backsides spanked, will Clegg be their leader or even an MP? As I understand it, it is the LibDems members who will decide after any talks what their position to coalition or C&S will be.
Not sure that is wise given that the Lib Dems are heavily dependent on Labour/left tactical votes to hold on to most of their seats.
As I said earlier, Osborne's sticky fingers are all over this. The Tories are confident now of winning more seat and or votes and want to undermine Labour on the 8th May using their stooge Clegg.
"Clegg's is the seat I want Labour to win most in the country. Then he can come out and join the Tories properly instead of masquerading with this ridiculous charade of pretending to be a liberal."
There's no way of reading todays statement by Clegg other than he will only enter into a coalition with the Tories. For it to be otherwise Labour would have to have some control over the SNP which clearly they haven't got.
I imagine Labour supporters are flooding Sheffield
Let's hope. Calling all Labour activists get your backsides into Hallam.
To quote the might Kevin Keegan "I'd love it if we beat them."
Lord Ashcroft, the Conservatives holding on to more seats overall against Labour than they would with a uniform national swing, but failing to gain seats that they would otherwise win from the Lib Dems. At the same time, my polling has Labour winning fewer Tory and Lib Dem seats overall, and losing more to the SNP, than the national polls suggest ought to be the case. It is, in fact, the Lib Dems who are doing best in the marginals, holding on to more seats against Labour and (particularly) the Conservatives than they would with a uniform swing. http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/the-tories-are-turning-off-undecided-voters-10202890.html
Ashcroft's latest marginal polling has sampled one LD seat, Bristol West, where an 11,000 LD majority over Labour has become a nailed on certainty for Labour.
"Clegg's is the seat I want Labour to win most in the country. Then he can come out and join the Tories properly instead of masquerading with this ridiculous charade of pretending to be a liberal."
There's no way of reading todays statement by Clegg other than he will only enter into a coalition with the Tories. For it to be otherwise Labour would have to have some control over the SNP which clearly they haven't got.
I imagine Labour supporters are flooding Sheffield
Let's hope. Calling all Labour activists get your backsides into Hallam.
To quote the might Kevin Keegan "I'd love it if we beat them."
Too late, Owen Jones has already organised a 'day of action' against Clegg on Sunday. I think it's silly (although it may work with the student vote). Having canvassed in a part of the country I've just moved to the first rule is to listen, shut up and be nice - people are far more interested in getting that pothole fixed than some national vendetta (which in general I agree with due to their status as the dissembling party) against the Lib Dems or even the Tories, despite wanting a change of government.
"Clegg's is the seat I want Labour to win most in the country. Then he can come out and join the Tories properly instead of masquerading with this ridiculous charade of pretending to be a liberal."
There's no way of reading todays statement by Clegg other than he will only enter into a coalition with the Tories. For it to be otherwise Labour would have to have some control over the SNP which clearly they haven't got.
I imagine Labour supporters are flooding Sheffield
Let's hope. Calling all Labour activists get your backsides into Hallam.
To quote the might Kevin Keegan "I'd love it if we beat them."
Too late, Owen Jones has already organised a 'day of action' against Clegg on Sunday. I think it's silly (although it may work with the student vote). Having canvassed in a part of the country I've just moved to the first rule is to listen, shut up and be nice - people are far more interested in getting that pothole fixed than some national vendetta (which in general I agree with due to their status as the dissembling party) against the Lib Dems or even the Tories, despite wanting a change of government.
"Clegg's is the seat I want Labour to win most in the country. Then he can come out and join the Tories properly instead of masquerading with this ridiculous charade of pretending to be a liberal."
There's no way of reading todays statement by Clegg other than he will only enter into a coalition with the Tories. For it to be otherwise Labour would have to have some control over the SNP which clearly they haven't got.
I imagine Labour supporters are flooding Sheffield
Let's hope. Calling all Labour activists get your backsides into Hallam.
To quote the might Kevin Keegan "I'd love it if we beat them."
Too late, Owen Jones has already organised a 'day of action' against Clegg on Sunday. I think it's silly (although it may work with the student vote). Having canvassed in a part of the country I've just moved to the first rule is to listen, shut up and be nice - people are far more interested in getting that pothole fixed than some national vendetta (which in general I agree with due to their status as the dissembling party) against the Lib Dems or even the Tories, despite wanting a change of government.
Photo 2 TSE- I don't quite know what that's about. It's little wonder they rarely get randy. I mean would you TSE, confined in a cage, full light, with people standing around taking photos, be able to do the business?
Photo 2 TSE- I don't quite know what that's about. It's little wonder they rarely get randy. I mean would you TSE, confined in a cage, full light, with people standing around taking photos, be able to do the business?
Comments
If as expected, the LibDems get their respective backsides spanked, will Clegg be their leader or even an MP? As I understand it, it is the LibDems members who will decide after any talks what their position to coalition or C&S will be.
Just under a fortnight until the next race weekend starts. I wonder if we'll have a new government then.
Essex has but one Saturday game, of any sort, all year. In September, when the schools re-open, the games are Tues-Fri!
Agree it seems strange!
As for 2) I think Moeen Ali offers a better batting option. There was a discussion on TMS too about the advanatges of bringing a young player on tour just to be around the team. Not sure about that myself; England once took an Essex fast bowler under those circumstances. He didn’t play at all on tour and disappeared from the County scene to, IIRC, work the City a few months afterwards.
"and losing more to the SNP, than the national polls suggest ought to be the case"
What more than 45?
EiT
"Clearly Cameron thought he was doing fine until the Independent showed up and averaged some polls..."
Yes that was very funny!
"Do I detect here some growing concern among Scottish Tories that the anti-Scottish tone of the Crosby led Cameron campaign is snuffing out the dying embers of the Conservative and Unionist Party branch office? "
I think it goes wider than that. I think there are many beyond the borders of Scotland who find Cameron's English Nationalism just as unattractive as Salmond's Scottish Nationalism.
You're right that if the Lib Dems do lose a great many seats, Clegg will have to go. If nothing else, it's difficult to see how he could rebuild the party when he is responsible for many of the proximate reasons for its electoral disaster (though the seeds of its strategic schizophrenia can't be laid at his door).
In any case, I'm not sure what he means by it. Suppose we end up with something like
Con 280
Lab 275
SNP 50
LD 25
Others 2
NI 18
And suppose the SNP remain true to their word that they will under no circumstance countenance a Tory government. The Lab+SNP MPs alone would have the power to vote Cameron out of office. Would Clegg really rule out any involvement in such an arrangement and - implicitly - try to persuade both parties of the current government to stay in office? Apart from being absurd, it would tear his party apart. It's one thing backing the Tories when they had a clear mandate and when Labour was tired; it's quite another to do so when it could not deliver anything.
However, almost a fifth of Lib Dem MPs in the last parliament came from Scotland: a greater proportion than in the Labour Party. That fact cannot go ignored in thinking of how the Oranges view the Yellows.
Doctors rates of divorce are lower than the general population too. In part it is because white male Doctors do no longer dominate numerically or culturally.
The real problem with spinners is the failure to find a new Swann. Rather than try to shoe-horn players into that position which they can't fill, England need to work on developing two or three who might in the next five years. In the meantime, the team will simply have to operate differently. We should not repeat the mistakes of the 1990s when selectors were constantly trying to find a new Botham - who didn't exist until Flintoff - and consequently chose any number of all-rounders who were neither good enough bowlers nor batsmen to merit their place in either discipline.
Root currently averages 57 in test cricket. Isn't that enough to be going on with? That he's an occasional change spinner should be a bonus, not a criticism.
"Just heard on the radio news that Clegg has ruled out a coalition with Labour /SNP has brought a couple of thoughts to mind."
Why he's done this is a mystery. It just seems like a way of losing more voters. The Lib Dems whole raison d'etre is to follow the electorates wishes. I wonder what what's left of his diminishing party think about it?
666 seconds
I visited a friend yesterday in her shared house with multiple tenants.
The area behind the letterbox was strewn with red leaflets,one yellow one and 2 independent ones.not a single blue one and this is a key London marginal the Blues are defending.
Ashcroft is correct when he points out the Blues lack ground support.
I wonder whether Nick Clegg has said less than is thought? I don't think he's ruling out Lab/Lib cooperation if Labour have most seats or such a government that requires only SNP abstention to operate. He is saying that the party with most seats should have a full chance to see whether it can form a government.
Plus, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg genuinely dislike each other.
The first Miliband in Salmond's pocket was in the first week of the campaign. We are now in the fifth week. The Salmond animation was in the second week, they've been screaming "SNP Bad" all campaign and admitted only really focused on it after the second debate.
But the second debate was now 9 days ago. NINE days. There's only 11 days left.
NB the Greens were not prompted for in Bristol West.
But this week's t'Economist appears to suggest that Steve Buscemi has entered UK politics!
[Src.: http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21649474-general-election-may-7th-could-decide-britains-place-europe-british-cooks-european-soup]
Top-and-centre for the great actor! Or is it me [not] being green...?
Economist Image: http://tinyurl.com/lw4gsct [© The Economist Newspaper, 2015.]
Life-like photo-shot: http://tinyurl.com/3pl7lny
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 21st April Projection) :
Con 304 (+1) .. Lab 249 (-4) .. LibDem 30 (+1) .. SNP 40 (NC) .. PC 3 (+1) .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 (+1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 22 seats short of a majority
Turnout Projection .. 67.5% (+0.5)
......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - Con Hold
Pudsey - Likely Con Hold
Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain
Warwickshire North - TCTC
Cambridge - LibDem Hold
Ipswich - Con Hold
Watford - TCTC
Croydon Central - Con Hold
Enfield North - Likely Lab Gain
Cornwall North - TCTC
Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
Changes From 21 Apr - No Change.
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500
.......................................................................................
ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain
Thurrock looks much tighter than I thought.
I'm in my 60's and in every election I've lived through the prospect of a Labour Government has been predicted to be some sort of apocalypse. Most of our press is owned by wealthy right wingers, people like Murdoch and the Barclay Brothers don't put their money into newspapers because that's where it gets the best return, they do it so they have propaganda tools at hand to scare people into voting in a way that best suits their business & political interests. It works less well as the years go by
This is an election. Elections are about emotion, not intellect. And it's politics. Politics is dirty. This looks like rather an effective poster from where I'm standing. The agency ain't going to lose any accounts over this one.
LAB haven't got the sense to take the fight to the SNP (advice to LAB HQ if you're reading: send some heavyweights north of the border, right now!). But CON obviously have.
My prediction is a CON plurality and another CON-LD coalition.
Next most likely result: a CON majority.
Next: a CON-SNP deal, doubtless spun as something completely different from a coalition, 'pact', 'S&C', etc., but a deal nonetheless.
The English question looms. In the third scenario above, it will have to be raised in a big way; there will hardly be any choice. In the other two scenarios, CON will probably raise it. Why? Because it's in their interests, and the sad reality is that LAB missed their chance. (I am a LAB member, by the way.)
Mind you, only Bristol North West and Bristol West look decided, and even the latter has an unfortunate flaw of not prompting for the Greens. Were the students back at uni by the time of the poll?
"I thought this time round the LibDem offering was broadly summed up as the Baby-Eating Bishop of Bath & Wells policy: "no form of electoral depravity is too low for me. Animal, mineral or vegetable - I'll do anything with anyone (unless, that is, I undermine Lynton's party line by appearing to indicate the Nats aren't the greatest threat to civilisation as we know it)" "
I think that sums up the Lib Dems (Clegg in particular) perfectly!
Clegg's is the seat I want Labour to win most in the country. Then he can come out and join the Tories properly instead of masquerading with this ridiculous charade of pretending to be a liberal.
So probably back.
ConHome posters are lazy.
Obviously, the SNP will make gains, although the scale remains to be seen. It'll be interesting to see how the Conservatives do.
The SNP are the best thing that ever happened to the Tory party.
Here's why:
- in Scotland, they're taking all the LAB seats
- in England, they're allowing CON (and even LD) to scare people into changing their voting intention away from LAB to CON (or even LD)
"Clegg's is the seat I want Labour to win most in the country. Then he can come out and join the Tories properly instead of masquerading with this ridiculous charade of pretending to be a liberal."
There's no way of reading todays statement by Clegg other than he will only enter into a coalition with the Tories. For it to be otherwise Labour would have to have some control over the SNP which clearly they haven't got.
I imagine Labour supporters are flooding Sheffield
Often the ability to perform both disciplines removes pressure rather than adds to it.
You also make the mistake of overrating Flintoff. He could certainly produce some inspirational and match winning performances but most of his England career was mediocre to rubbish.
Tony Greig had significantly better averages and performances than Flintoff.
In retrospect the England team when Botham made his debut in 1977 must be a contender for their strongest ever:
Boycott
Brealey (c)
Woomer
Randall
Greig
Miller
Knott (w)
Botham
Underwood
Willis
Hendrick
There is no political strategy Labour could use to stop their imminent wipe out in Scotland. The Shadow Foreign Secretary is about to be gutted by a 20 year old student purely because he is Labour and she is SNP.
Labour already called in the big guns they have available. Most would be toxic - Miliband and Balls would only lower their vote. They sent Murphy north and he's about to be slaughtered. They called up Gordon Brown and he's being laughed at.
Nothing Labour can do will change what is happening.
To quote the might Kevin Keegan "I'd love it if we beat them."
It's little wonder they rarely get randy. I mean would you TSE, confined in a cage, full light, with people standing around taking photos, be able to do the business?
It's little wonder they rarely get randy. I mean would you TSE, confined in a cage, full light, with people standing around taking photos, be able to do the business?