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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf after a day dominated by Libya

SystemSystem Posts: 12,217
edited April 2015 in General

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  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    first.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Front page of Mail - Janner The Stench Grows.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Bringing this up today, and the slightly inflammatory briefings (which I feel were ungentlemanly) trolled the Tories into changing the subject from the SNP.

    Mission Accomplished
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    I don't know if Lucas is facing problems in Brighton as some have suggested in the previous thread, however the weather forecast next week is cold weather and snow showers over much of the UK.
    Next Saturday it might even snow in Brighton, not bad for May, but unfortunately very bad timing for the Green party and global warming.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Speedy said:

    I don't know if Lucas is facing problems in Brighton as some have suggested in the previous thread, however the weather forecast next week is cold weather and snow showers over much of the UK.
    Next Saturday it might even snow in Brighton, not bad for May, but unfortunately very bad timing for the Green party and global warming.

    It won't snow in Brighton.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,972
    edited April 2015
    Major news


    Nick Clegg on Friday dealt a blow to the chances of a Labour/Liberal Democrat coalition in a hung parliament as he ruled out any deal that relied on “life support” from the Scottish National party.

    The Lib Dem leader also argued that any coalition with the party that finished second in the election — on most current projections Labour — would lack “legitimacy” with voters, who would question the government’s “birthright”.

    In the clearest sign yet that he is contemplating a renewal of his 2010 coalition with the Conservatives, Mr Clegg told the Financial Times that Labour had been consumed by “frothing bile” towards his party for the past five years.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/fd3b7bec-ea97-11e4-8c7e-00144feab7de.html#axzz3YG2FI5JE
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,932
    Speedy said:

    I don't know if Lucas is facing problems in Brighton as some have suggested in the previous thread, however the weather forecast next week is cold weather and snow showers over much of the UK.
    Next Saturday it might even snow in Brighton, not bad for May, but unfortunately very bad timing for the Green party and global warming.

    There's a difference between Weather and Climate. C'mon even 7 year olds know that.
    https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/noaa-n/climate/climate_weather.html
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Major news


    Nick Clegg on Friday dealt a blow to the chances of a Labour/Liberal Democrat coalition in a hung parliament as he ruled out any deal that relied on “life support” from the Scottish National party.

    Clegg should take up gambling. He not only bluffs on bad hands, he bluffs when he has no cards.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited April 2015
    OblitusSumMe said:

    Speedy said:

    I don't know if Lucas is facing problems in Brighton as some have suggested in the previous thread, however the weather forecast next week is cold weather and snow showers over much of the UK.
    Next Saturday it might even snow in Brighton, not bad for May, but unfortunately very bad timing for the Green party and global warming.

    It won't snow in Brighton.
    The first supercomputer GFS model results say there is a chance especially during morning hours.
    Though 8 days ahead forecasts have low accuracy, let's wait another 4 days and see.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    I am at least glad Ed has stated his position on Libya. It is the best thing he could have done and shows what a great statesman he will be and a superb leader of this great country.


    Shame he took 3 fecking years to do it.......
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Major news


    Nick Clegg on Friday dealt a blow to the chances of a Labour/Liberal Democrat coalition in a hung parliament as he ruled out any deal that relied on “life support” from the Scottish National party.

    The Lib Dem leader also argued that any coalition with the party that finished second in the election — on most current projections Labour — would lack “legitimacy” with voters, who would question the government’s “birthright”.

    In the clearest sign yet that he is contemplating a renewal of his 2010 coalition with the Conservatives, Mr Clegg told the Financial Times that Labour had been consumed by “frothing bile” towards his party for the past five years.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/fd3b7bec-ea97-11e4-8c7e-00144feab7de.html#axzz3YG2FI5JE

    If he survives as an MP the Tories may well be doing well enough to consider it.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    If anyone has bet on Conservative minority government, now might be a good time to lay that bet off. It may still happen, but the odds of a new coalition being preferred instead if the maths permits must just have increased a fair bit.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/591680570435993600
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Major news


    Nick Clegg on Friday dealt a blow to the chances of a Labour/Liberal Democrat coalition in a hung parliament as he ruled out any deal that relied on “life support” from the Scottish National party.

    The Lib Dem leader also argued that any coalition with the party that finished second in the election — on most current projections Labour — would lack “legitimacy” with voters, who would question the government’s “birthright”.

    In the clearest sign yet that he is contemplating a renewal of his 2010 coalition with the Conservatives, Mr Clegg told the Financial Times that Labour had been consumed by “frothing bile” towards his party for the past five years.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/fd3b7bec-ea97-11e4-8c7e-00144feab7de.html#axzz3YG2FI5JE

    I wish we could have a little box on the form that said put X here if you don't want to change anything?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,972
    antifrank said:

    If anyone has bet on Conservative minority government, now might be a good time to lay that bet off. It may still happen, but the odds of a new coalition being preferred instead if the maths permits must just have increased a fair bit.

    I tipped it at 9/2 a few weeks ago.

    I agree with your assessment.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/591680570435993600

    The I Err FFS
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    edited April 2015
    So in order to divert the Tories from their attacks on Labour and the SNP being a cosy up, the Labour Party chooses to accuse the PM of colluding in the deaths by drowning of several hundred refugees...nice one..it really wants me to vote for such a high minded and principled party ..Labour..job done..disgusting...
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/591680570435993600

    That article is full of dire warnings and predictions for the Tories too, LordA is plunging the knife repeatedly.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,972
    On the flip side Clegg has also ruled out joining a coalition with the Tories that also involves UKIP.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Moses_ said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/591680570435993600

    The I Err FFS
    Lord "Dan Hodges" Ashcroft
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Clegg is going to look like a right muppet if CON + LD + DUP < 323

    Or if he ends up accepting life support from UKIP
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On the flip side Clegg has also ruled out joining a coalition with the Tories that also involves UKIP.

    Then the Tories can afford to lose a maximum net of 10 seats and if they do badly enough against the LD for them to have 25 seats.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On the flip side Clegg has also ruled out joining a coalition with the Tories that also involves UKIP.

    Some men just want to watch the world burn.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Moses_ said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Major news


    Nick Clegg on Friday dealt a blow to the chances of a Labour/Liberal Democrat coalition in a hung parliament as he ruled out any deal that relied on “life support” from the Scottish National party.

    The Lib Dem leader also argued that any coalition with the party that finished second in the election — on most current projections Labour — would lack “legitimacy” with voters, who would question the government’s “birthright”.

    In the clearest sign yet that he is contemplating a renewal of his 2010 coalition with the Conservatives, Mr Clegg told the Financial Times that Labour had been consumed by “frothing bile” towards his party for the past five years.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/fd3b7bec-ea97-11e4-8c7e-00144feab7de.html#axzz3YG2FI5JE

    I wish we could have a little box on the form that said put X here if you don't want to change anything?
    If I had a choice I'd vote for a continuation of the coalition. Fits what I want perfectly.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587
    Since I've not really noticed the Labour message evolving much over the past few weeks, I can only presume if the waverers are heading more to them than the Tories, that it is in response to the Tory campaign instead. That's discouraging for the Tories - they have had to and still do need to be the ones instigating new narratives and policies, but it looks like at best it is proving a challenge for them to work.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On the flip side Clegg has also ruled out joining a coalition with the Tories that also involves UKIP.

    I think this is sensible politically.

    Although it would be funny as feck watching Labour bods frothing over the sight of UKIP having two government ministers helping make policy in a Tory government, when they've only got a total of two MPs.

    I'd pay to see that :)

  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Fenster said:

    Moses_ said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Major news


    Nick Clegg on Friday dealt a blow to the chances of a Labour/Liberal Democrat coalition in a hung parliament as he ruled out any deal that relied on “life support” from the Scottish National party.

    The Lib Dem leader also argued that any coalition with the party that finished second in the election — on most current projections Labour — would lack “legitimacy” with voters, who would question the government’s “birthright”.

    In the clearest sign yet that he is contemplating a renewal of his 2010 coalition with the Conservatives, Mr Clegg told the Financial Times that Labour had been consumed by “frothing bile” towards his party for the past five years.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/fd3b7bec-ea97-11e4-8c7e-00144feab7de.html#axzz3YG2FI5JE

    I wish we could have a little box on the form that said put X here if you don't want to change anything?
    If I had a choice I'd vote for a continuation of the coalition. Fits what I want perfectly.

    I'd vote coalition. (Although I am unsure whether a Tory majority would have dropped some of the more right-wing parts, which I disagree with, anyway.)
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Ashcroft produced a poll on Monday with the Tories 4 ahead, as did Survation and Opinium.

    If the waverers are heading to labour, they've got a funny way of showing it.

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    kle4 said:

    Since I've not really noticed the Labour message evolving much over the past few weeks, I can only presume if the waverers are heading more to them than the Tories, that it is in response to the Tory campaign instead. That's discouraging for the Tories - they have had to and still do need to be the ones instigating new narratives and policies, but it looks like at best it is proving a challenge for them to work.

    I think it is because the Tory campaign doesn't resemble a coherent thing.
    The only thing that they have done is Ed Is Crap and SNP Is The Devil, and the voters are bored of both of those messages and seek substance.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587
    Speedy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On the flip side Clegg has also ruled out joining a coalition with the Tories that also involves UKIP.

    Then the Tories can afford to lose a maximum net of 10 seats and if they do badly enough against the LD for them to have 25 seats.
    Yeesh, that's a challenge. It must be a little frustrating for them that their best chance of maintaining as many seats as they can involves taking seats from the only party likely to win a decent number of seats that might be willing to do a deal with them, so simultaneously making it harder to put together a majority.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    Fenster said:

    Moses_ said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Major news


    Nick Clegg on Friday dealt a blow to the chances of a Labour/Liberal Democrat coalition in a hung parliament as he ruled out any deal that relied on “life support” from the Scottish National party.

    The Lib Dem leader also argued that any coalition with the party that finished second in the election — on most current projections Labour — would lack “legitimacy” with voters, who would question the government’s “birthright”.

    In the clearest sign yet that he is contemplating a renewal of his 2010 coalition with the Conservatives, Mr Clegg told the Financial Times that Labour had been consumed by “frothing bile” towards his party for the past five years.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/fd3b7bec-ea97-11e4-8c7e-00144feab7de.html#axzz3YG2FI5JE

    I wish we could have a little box on the form that said put X here if you don't want to change anything?
    If I had a choice I'd vote for a continuation of the coalition. Fits what I want perfectly.

    That makes at least two of us.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    chestnut said:

    Ashcroft produced a poll on Monday with the Tories 4 ahead, as did Survation and Opinium.

    If the waverers are heading to labour, they've got a funny way of showing it.

    He's sitting on his latest constituency polling until tomorrow morning, maybe he knows what's in it and the Independent exclusive maybe a teaser.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Fenster said:

    Moses_ said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Major news


    Nick Clegg on Friday dealt a blow to the chances of a Labour/Liberal Democrat coalition in a hung parliament as he ruled out any deal that relied on “life support” from the Scottish National party.

    The Lib Dem leader also argued that any coalition with the party that finished second in the election — on most current projections Labour — would lack “legitimacy” with voters, who would question the government’s “birthright”.

    In the clearest sign yet that he is contemplating a renewal of his 2010 coalition with the Conservatives, Mr Clegg told the Financial Times that Labour had been consumed by “frothing bile” towards his party for the past five years.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/fd3b7bec-ea97-11e4-8c7e-00144feab7de.html#axzz3YG2FI5JE

    I wish we could have a little box on the form that said put X here if you don't want to change anything?
    If I had a choice I'd vote for a continuation of the coalition. Fits what I want perfectly.

    The critical thing for the current coalition to continue is for Clegg to hold Hallam. If he does and more than half LD seats are saved then he'll be able to carry on. Without Clegg it will be much harder.

  • LestuhLestuh Posts: 50
    Speedy said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/591680570435993600

    That article is full of dire warnings and predictions for the Tories too, LordA is plunging the knife repeatedly.
    Does it ever actually say, 'You should have listened to me.' anywhere?

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,972
    MikeSmithson said:

    Fenster said:

    Moses_ said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Major news


    Nick Clegg on Friday dealt a blow to the chances of a Labour/Liberal Democrat coalition in a hung parliament as he ruled out any deal that relied on “life support” from the Scottish National party.

    The Lib Dem leader also argued that any coalition with the party that finished second in the election — on most current projections Labour — would lack “legitimacy” with voters, who would question the government’s “birthright”.

    In the clearest sign yet that he is contemplating a renewal of his 2010 coalition with the Conservatives, Mr Clegg told the Financial Times that Labour had been consumed by “frothing bile” towards his party for the past five years.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/fd3b7bec-ea97-11e4-8c7e-00144feab7de.html#axzz3YG2FI5JE

    I wish we could have a little box on the form that said put X here if you don't want to change anything?
    If I had a choice I'd vote for a continuation of the coalition. Fits what I want perfectly.

    The critical thing for the current coalition to continue is for Clegg to hold Hallam. If he does and more than half LD seats are saved then he'll be able to carry on. Without Clegg it will be much harder.

    I'm doing my best to ensure that happens.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Freggles said:

    Bringing this up today, and the slightly inflammatory briefings (which I feel were ungentlemanly) trolled the Tories into changing the subject from the SNP.

    Mission Accomplished

    The public felt the Scottish issue had been overplayed - they want information on the NHS Education, the economy and the effect of immigration. With nearly 2 weeks left there is plenty of time to attack these issues.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587
    Speedy said:

    kle4 said:

    Since I've not really noticed the Labour message evolving much over the past few weeks, I can only presume if the waverers are heading more to them than the Tories, that it is in response to the Tory campaign instead. That's discouraging for the Tories - they have had to and still do need to be the ones instigating new narratives and policies, but it looks like at best it is proving a challenge for them to work.

    I think it is because the Tory campaign doesn't resemble a coherent thing.
    The only thing that they have done is Ed Is Crap and SNP Is The Devil, and the voters are bored of both of those messages and seek substance.
    I can imagine they are bored, but I don't know that the public do seek substance. By and large when we get it we react badly, or just get confused by all the competing stats and claims.
    Fenster said:

    Moses_ said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Major news


    Nick Clegg on Friday dealt a blow to the chances of a Labour/Liberal Democrat coalition in a hung parliament as he ruled out any deal that relied on “life support” from the Scottish National party.

    The Lib Dem leader also argued that any coalition with the party that finished second in the election — on most current projections Labour — would lack “legitimacy” with voters, who would question the government’s “birthright”.

    In the clearest sign yet that he is contemplating a renewal of his 2010 coalition with the Conservatives, Mr Clegg told the Financial Times that Labour had been consumed by “frothing bile” towards his party for the past five years.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/fd3b7bec-ea97-11e4-8c7e-00144feab7de.html#axzz3YG2FI5JE

    I wish we could have a little box on the form that said put X here if you don't want to change anything?
    If I had a choice I'd vote for a continuation of the coalition. Fits what I want perfectly.
    It doesn't fit what I want perfectly, but on balance I'd probably vote for a continuation (when casting my vote in 2010 it was my hope it would help contribute to a LD-Con coalition, so apparently I'm the only person who did vote for the coalition, inasmuch as is possible). One party having 9-10 times the MPs of the others does dilute the worth of mixing two parties together somewhat admittedly, but maybe it would at least blunt the worst edges off.

    I'd have to see what actual affect the SNP would have a Lab administration before I could decide if it was ok or not. I suspect their rhetoric will not be matched by their actions, which would for once be a good thing.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    kle4 said:

    Speedy said:

    kle4 said:

    Since I've not really noticed the Labour message evolving much over the past few weeks, I can only presume if the waverers are heading more to them than the Tories, that it is in response to the Tory campaign instead. That's discouraging for the Tories - they have had to and still do need to be the ones instigating new narratives and policies, but it looks like at best it is proving a challenge for them to work.

    I think it is because the Tory campaign doesn't resemble a coherent thing.
    The only thing that they have done is Ed Is Crap and SNP Is The Devil, and the voters are bored of both of those messages and seek substance.
    I can imagine they are bored, but I don't know that the public do seek substance. By and large when we get it we react badly, or just get confused by all the competing stats and claims.
    Fenster said:

    Moses_ said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Major news


    Nick Clegg on Friday dealt a blow to the chances of a Labour/Liberal Democrat coalition in a hung parliament as he ruled out any deal that relied on “life support” from the Scottish National party.

    In the clearest sign yet that he is contemplating a renewal of his 2010 coalition with the Conservatives, Mr Clegg told the Financial Times that Labour had been consumed by “frothing bile” towards his party for the past five years.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/fd3b7bec-ea97-11e4-8c7e-00144feab7de.html#axzz3YG2FI5JE

    I wish we could have a little box on the form that said put X here if you don't want to change anything?
    If I had a choice I'd vote for a continuation of the coalition. Fits what I want perfectly.
    It doesn't fit what I want perfectly, but on balance I'd probably vote for a continuation (when casting my vote in 2010 it was my hope it would help contribute to a LD-Con coalition, so apparently I'm the only person who did vote for the coalition, inasmuch as is possible). One party having 9-10 times the MPs of the others does dilute the worth of mixing two parties together somewhat admittedly, but maybe it would at least blunt the worst edges off.

    I'd have to see what actual affect the SNP would have a Lab administration before I could decide if it was ok or not. I suspect their rhetoric will not be matched by their actions, which would for once be a good thing.
    Those 20 Lib Dem votes are worth as much as 40 Tory MPs - political theory states that the junior member of the coalition has proportionately more power, because they have the ultimate sanction. FWIW I would prefer continuation, given that all the alternatives are much worse.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Fenster said:

    Moses_ said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Major news


    Nick Clegg on Friday dealt a blow to the chances of a Labour/Liberal Democrat coalition in a hung parliament as he ruled out any deal that relied on “life support” from the Scottish National party.

    The Lib Dem leader also argued that any coalition with the party that finished second in the election — on most current projections Labour — would lack “legitimacy” with voters, who would question the government’s “birthright”.

    In the clearest sign yet that he is contemplating a renewal of his 2010 coalition with the Conservatives, Mr Clegg told the Financial Times that Labour had been consumed by “frothing bile” towards his party for the past five years.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/fd3b7bec-ea97-11e4-8c7e-00144feab7de.html#axzz3YG2FI5JE

    I wish we could have a little box on the form that said put X here if you don't want to change anything?
    If I had a choice I'd vote for a continuation of the coalition. Fits what I want perfectly.

    The critical thing for the current coalition to continue is for Clegg to hold Hallam. If he does and more than half LD seats are saved then he'll be able to carry on. Without Clegg it will be much harder.

    I'm doing my best to ensure that happens.
    So you personally TSE have it in your power to shape the future of these islands for decades.

  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Major news


    Nick Clegg on Friday dealt a blow to the chances of a Labour/Liberal Democrat coalition in a hung parliament as he ruled out any deal that relied on “life support” from the Scottish National party.

    The Lib Dem leader also argued that any coalition with the party that finished second in the election — on most current projections Labour — would lack “legitimacy” with voters, who would question the government’s “birthright”.

    In the clearest sign yet that he is contemplating a renewal of his 2010 coalition with the Conservatives, Mr Clegg told the Financial Times that Labour had been consumed by “frothing bile” towards his party for the past five years.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/fd3b7bec-ea97-11e4-8c7e-00144feab7de.html#axzz3YG2FI5JE

    Might be Clegg's view but he will have a hell of a battle getting the rest of the party to agree to another 5 years with the Tories
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,972
    MikeSmithson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Fenster said:

    Moses_ said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Major news


    Nick Clegg on Friday dealt a blow to the chances of a Labour/Liberal Democrat coalition in a hung parliament as he ruled out any deal that relied on “life support” from the Scottish National party.

    The Lib Dem leader also argued that any coalition with the party that finished second in the election — on most current projections Labour — would lack “legitimacy” with voters, who would question the government’s “birthright”.

    In the clearest sign yet that he is contemplating a renewal of his 2010 coalition with the Conservatives, Mr Clegg told the Financial Times that Labour had been consumed by “frothing bile” towards his party for the past five years.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/fd3b7bec-ea97-11e4-8c7e-00144feab7de.html#axzz3YG2FI5JE

    I wish we could have a little box on the form that said put X here if you don't want to change anything?
    If I had a choice I'd vote for a continuation of the coalition. Fits what I want perfectly.

    The critical thing for the current coalition to continue is for Clegg to hold Hallam. If he does and more than half LD seats are saved then he'll be able to carry on. Without Clegg it will be much harder.

    I'm doing my best to ensure that happens.
    So you personally TSE have it in your power to shape the future of these islands for decades.

    As Uncle Ben (Parker) said, with great power comes great responsibility.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    kle4 said:

    Since I've not really noticed the Labour message evolving much over the past few weeks, I can only presume if the waverers are heading more to them than the Tories, that it is in response to the Tory campaign instead. That's discouraging for the Tories - they have had to and still do need to be the ones instigating new narratives and policies, but it looks like at best it is proving a challenge for them to work.

    I cannot for the life of me understand why the Tories didn't use the good news economic stories to start bringing in positive policies six months ago- more money for the NHS, additional childcare, taking more out of tax- using the budget as the vehicle for driving these forward. I find it baffling that they had these in their back pocket if the poll numbers didn't shift and have only used it in the latter stages of an election campaign. If you want to hold onto power, you need to compromise.
    The best incumbency campaign is steady as she goes building a positive vision for the future, not flap around.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    53 minutes to the next YouGov and no Tweets from Newton-Dunn. What's it going to be?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587
    edited April 2015
    Looking at a map of the 2010 results, the thought occurs that one could make a bet on whether there will be any LD seats that border another LD seat. 2 in Wales at present, a bunch in Scotland and the SW, and the SW London seats, otherwise they are scattered all over the place, a few in the shires and some on the edges or, rare, inner cities.

    It seems unlikely they'll retain enough seats in Scotland to border each other, I don't know how likely their Welsh seats are, and we've had at least one poll predicting a bad time in the SW, so while with 20ish seats I imagine a couple at least will border each other, can it be assumed?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    kle4 said:

    Looking at a map of the 2010 results, the thought occurs that one could make a bet on whether there will be any LD seats that border another LD seat. 2 in Wales at present, a bunch in Scotland and the SW, and the SW London seats, otherwise they are scattered all over the place, a few in the shires and some on the edges or, rare, inner cities.

    It seems unlikely they'll retain enough seats in Scotland to border each other, I don't know how likely their Welsh seats are, and we've had at least one poll predicting a bad time in the SW, so while with 20ish seats I imagine a couple at least will border each other, can it be assumed?

    Twickenham, where my vote has gone, and Kingston border each other.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587
    tyson said:

    kle4 said:

    Since I've not really noticed the Labour message evolving much over the past few weeks, I can only presume if the waverers are heading more to them than the Tories, that it is in response to the Tory campaign instead. That's discouraging for the Tories - they have had to and still do need to be the ones instigating new narratives and policies, but it looks like at best it is proving a challenge for them to work.

    I cannot for the life of me understand why the Tories didn't use the good news economic stories to start bringing in positive policies six months ago- more money for the NHS, additional childcare, taking more out of tax- using the budget as the vehicle for driving these forward. I find it baffling that they had these in their back pocket if the poll numbers didn't shift and have only used it in the latter stages of an election campaign. If you want to hold onto power, you need to compromise.
    The best incumbency campaign is steady as she goes building a positive vision for the future, not flap around.
    I think they were so concerned about appearing profligate too soon, and wanted to have things in their back pocket to catch Labour offguard, that they saved them for later. Personally my feeling is people usually vote with their gut and how they feel about parties is set long long before polling day, so you need to fix a positive image in peoples' minds early. That was going to be hard for the Tories given the cuts in any case, but they probably could have admitted they would be relaxing things or spending more earlier. What would Labour have done, criticised them for spending more? (Ok, they have done that, but it isn't that effective an attack I feel)
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    tyson said:

    kle4 said:

    Since I've not really noticed the Labour message evolving much over the past few weeks, I can only presume if the waverers are heading more to them than the Tories, that it is in response to the Tory campaign instead. That's discouraging for the Tories - they have had to and still do need to be the ones instigating new narratives and policies, but it looks like at best it is proving a challenge for them to work.

    I cannot for the life of me understand why the Tories didn't use the good news economic stories to start bringing in positive policies six months ago- more money for the NHS, additional childcare, taking more out of tax- using the budget as the vehicle for driving these forward. I find it baffling that they had these in their back pocket if the poll numbers didn't shift and have only used it in the latter stages of an election campaign. If you want to hold onto power, you need to compromise.
    The best incumbency campaign is steady as she goes building a positive vision for the future, not flap around.
    Momentum. The Tories needed something to counter Labour attack lines closer to the election. Have nothing left in the tank and the result is very damaging indeed, because you go into election day with an opposition narrative.

    Until the last two months, the Tories have not had as much space over living standards as they had hoped - go in too positive and you look out of touch (that's one Labour line which has not hit home as it has happened, but not missed by much).
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,972
    For those of us with bets on Scottish Pandas vs Scot Tory MPs, this story maybe of interest

    Pandas break mating record with 40-minute sex marathon

    http://tinyurl.com/TheRandyPandyBuggers
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587
    edited April 2015
    Ed looks a little sunken eyed in the picture, but to tell the truth, he's been looking pretty decent during the campaign
    MikeSmithson said:

    kle4 said:

    Looking at a map of the 2010 results, the thought occurs that one could make a bet on whether there will be any LD seats that border another LD seat. 2 in Wales at present, a bunch in Scotland and the SW, and the SW London seats, otherwise they are scattered all over the place, a few in the shires and some on the edges or, rare, inner cities.

    It seems unlikely they'll retain enough seats in Scotland to border each other, I don't know how likely their Welsh seats are, and we've had at least one poll predicting a bad time in the SW, so while with 20ish seats I imagine a couple at least will border each other, can it be assumed?

    Twickenham, where my vote has gone, and Kingston border each other.

    Ah yes. What is it about that part of London that makes it so LD friendly? Comparatively.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    @ Mike Smithson & Kle4

    I think Clegg will hold on.

    Re the 2010 coalition, I don't think anybody really saw it coming, but I think history will judge it a) as a pretty amazing political event, and b) as a success.

    I still think that Cameron, Osborne, IDS, Letwin, Clegg, Cable, Huhne, Laws and Alexander deserve an enormous amount of credit for what they've pulled off. They've all suffered huge political fallout - particularly the Lib Dems with the votes shed, and Cameron too, with his right-wing - but they have led a mature, stable government during very difficult times and have broadly succeeded on their big-issue policies/reforms.

    I also think they had broadly reflected what the electorate wants; sound finances, stability, liberal tolerance on social issues, less tribalism and more political compromise.

    The coalition has angered the tribal voters on the right and on the left. But I suspect in the pursuit of decent governance, that's no bad thing.

    History will judge them well.

  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    MikeSmithson said:

    53 minutes to the next YouGov and no Tweets from Newton-Dunn. What's it going to be?

    It will be the same as at least one other Yougov poll in April.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587
    edited April 2015
    Fenster said:

    History will judge them well.

    Cold comfort in the short term for them, but I happen to agree, inasmuch as it comes to making this coalition work regardless of what one thinks about its achievements.

    If his political reputation ever recovers in historical reevaluation, will Clegg release a tell-all autobiography, I'm not sorry?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    MikeSmithson said:

    53 minutes to the next YouGov and no Tweets from Newton-Dunn. What's it going to be?

    Labour 2% ahead?

  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    MikeSmithson said:

    kle4 said:

    Looking at a map of the 2010 results, the thought occurs that one could make a bet on whether there will be any LD seats that border another LD seat. 2 in Wales at present, a bunch in Scotland and the SW, and the SW London seats, otherwise they are scattered all over the place, a few in the shires and some on the edges or, rare, inner cities.

    It seems unlikely they'll retain enough seats in Scotland to border each other, I don't know how likely their Welsh seats are, and we've had at least one poll predicting a bad time in the SW, so while with 20ish seats I imagine a couple at least will border each other, can it be assumed?

    Twickenham, where my vote has gone, and Kingston border each other.

    Listen Mike- stop reminding people about your dastardly unholy alliance, subverting the entire political establishment. You'll set them all off frothing again. I can almost feel the spittle....
  • Flightpath1Flightpath1 Posts: 207
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    For those of us with bets on Scottish Pandas vs Scot Tory MPs, this story maybe of interest

    Pandas break mating record with 40-minute sex marathon

    http://tinyurl.com/TheRandyPandyBuggers

    They have obviously put all their bamboo shoot money on BetFred.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,972
    https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/591705474317320194
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587
    I'm guessing Lab 3 ahead. MOE changes, but there's been some creeping up of the Lab lead with those pollsters showing regular leads for them, which includes YG.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Evening all. The good lord has spoken. Awaiting Yougov with anticipation. Did I miss any other polls today?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Con minority 5.8 on Betfair
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    Fenster said:

    @ Mike Smithson & Kle4

    I think Clegg will hold on.

    Re the 2010 coalition, I don't think anybody really saw it coming, but I think history will judge it a) as a pretty amazing political event, and b) as a success.

    I still think that Cameron, Osborne, IDS, Letwin, Clegg, Cable, Huhne, Laws and Alexander deserve an enormous amount of credit for what they've pulled off. They've all suffered huge political fallout - particularly the Lib Dems with the votes shed, and Cameron too, with his right-wing - but they have led a mature, stable government during very difficult times and have broadly succeeded on their big-issue policies/reforms.

    I also think they had broadly reflected what the electorate wants; sound finances, stability, liberal tolerance on social issues, less tribalism and more political compromise.

    The coalition has angered the tribal voters on the right and on the left. But I suspect in the pursuit of decent governance, that's no bad thing.

    History will judge them well.

    Apart from Cable and Hunhe, nothing to argue with there. Cable has been a non entity, Huhne, less said the better.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/591667037212155905/photo/1
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Fenster said:

    @ Mike Smithson & Kle4

    I think Clegg will hold on.

    Re the 2010 coalition, I don't think anybody really saw it coming, but I think history will judge it a) as a pretty amazing political event, and b) as a success.

    I still think that Cameron, Osborne, IDS, Letwin, Clegg, Cable, Huhne, Laws and Alexander deserve an enormous amount of credit for what they've pulled off. They've all suffered huge political fallout - particularly the Lib Dems with the votes shed, and Cameron too, with his right-wing - but they have led a mature, stable government during very difficult times and have broadly succeeded on their big-issue policies/reforms.

    I also think they had broadly reflected what the electorate wants; sound finances, stability, liberal tolerance on social issues, less tribalism and more political compromise.

    The coalition has angered the tribal voters on the right and on the left. But I suspect in the pursuit of decent governance, that's no bad thing.

    History will judge them well.

    And unfortunately for them, history is what they will likely be by mid May....
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Ooh

    Oeuf dans moi visage if Ukip are struggling in the latter

    Doubt they'll drift to 16/1 mind

    Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft)
    24/04/2015 21:49
    My latest constituency polls ( including Rochester and Thurrock) will be released at 9am Saturday with commentary at @ConHome
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    tyson said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    kle4 said:

    Looking at a map of the 2010 results, the thought occurs that one could make a bet on whether there will be any LD seats that border another LD seat. 2 in Wales at present, a bunch in Scotland and the SW, and the SW London seats, otherwise they are scattered all over the place, a few in the shires and some on the edges or, rare, inner cities.

    It seems unlikely they'll retain enough seats in Scotland to border each other, I don't know how likely their Welsh seats are, and we've had at least one poll predicting a bad time in the SW, so while with 20ish seats I imagine a couple at least will border each other, can it be assumed?

    Twickenham, where my vote has gone, and Kingston border each other.

    Listen Mike- stop reminding people about your dastardly unholy alliance, subverting the entire political establishment. You'll set them all off frothing again. I can almost feel the spittle....
    Says the man who was furiously throwing chum in the water last night.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    What's that smell? Something stinks, but can't work out what it is...

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/591705846435950592
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2015
    Tykejohnno said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/591667037212155905/photo/1

    Con + LD + UKIP + DUP = 319, just 4 short of the target. 3 short if the DUP win back Belfast East.
  • NoEasyDayNoEasyDay Posts: 454
    saddened said:

    Fenster said:

    @ Mike Smithson & Kle4

    I think Clegg will hold on.

    Re the 2010 coalition, I don't think anybody really saw it coming, but I think history will judge it a) as a pretty amazing political event, and b) as a success.

    I still think that Cameron, Osborne, IDS, Letwin, Clegg, Cable, Huhne, Laws and Alexander deserve an enormous amount of credit for what they've pulled off. They've all suffered huge political fallout - particularly the Lib Dems with the votes shed, and Cameron too, with his right-wing - but they have led a mature, stable government during very difficult times and have broadly succeeded on their big-issue policies/reforms.

    I also think they had broadly reflected what the electorate wants; sound finances, stability, liberal tolerance on social issues, less tribalism and more political compromise.

    The coalition has angered the tribal voters on the right and on the left. But I suspect in the pursuit of decent governance, that's no bad thing.

    History will judge them well.

    Apart from Cable and Hunhe, nothing to argue with there. Cable has been a non entity, Huhne, less said the better.
    Agree with most of that except Cable who has spent his time in government excercisung his vanity. Despicable individuable.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited April 2015
    In fairness to Farage, if he wins South Thanet he'll have earned it. This just the latest of his events there:
    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/591700510840909824

  • Flightpath1Flightpath1 Posts: 207
    chestnut said:

    Ashcroft produced a poll on Monday with the Tories 4 ahead, as did Survation and Opinium.

    If the waverers are heading to labour, they've got a funny way of showing it.

    chestnut said:

    Ashcroft produced a poll on Monday with the Tories 4 ahead, as did Survation and Opinium.

    If the waverers are heading to labour, they've got a funny way of showing it.

    I've just returned from driving to South Devon and back in the last 24 hours. Not many but the only poster-boards were blue. Not a red, not a yellow. Meaningless I know.
    Even the mororway signs were blue - which makes a change for all the subliminal Keep Left signs we normally see.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    What's that smell? Something stinks, but can't work out what it is...

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/591705846435950592

    The Scum itself?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited April 2015
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    For those of us with bets on Scottish Pandas vs Scot Tory MPs, this story maybe of interest

    Pandas break mating record with 40-minute sex marathon

    http://tinyurl.com/TheRandyPandyBuggers

    You are not the only one with those interests.
    From 1:47 :
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WBO9Y0SyDqk
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587
    Not that we will get into this situation, but if were to find ourselves with a need for parties to openly acknowledge their coalition preferences with semi-permanent alliances, what names would the various parties umbrella under, if only for media descriptions ('the coalition' has worked fine to date, but we might have a new 'the coalition' soon)? I just am not a fan of Rainbow Alliance for Lab-SNP-PC-Green-LDs(back when they were good little lefties), I'm sure we can do better.

    Con-UKIP (The 'conservative wet dream alliance')
    Con-UKIP-DUP ( The 'ugh, if we have to' alliance)
    Con-UKIP-DUP-LD ('Look, the numbers were tight' alliance)

    Lab-SNP-PC-Green (I am sure that if the SNP went into an alliance the two little siblings would follow happily, so no need to count as a separate alliance possibility), (The No-Tories Alliance)
    Lab-SNP-PC-Green-LDs (United Socialist Progressive Left Freedom National Environmental Progressive Alliance) (you know its progressive because it uses the word twice in its name)
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    Is anyone else watching the cricket? Two teams with pedestrian bowlers on slow wickets. It's still worth watching mind- UKIP cricket, a throwback to a different era when no team ever won a match.
    I've tried to explain test cricket to Italians. It baffles them. 5 days of 6-7 hours play a day, and often ends up as a draw They don't get the point.
    There is a review....
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Good news for the Panda bet

    @ProfTomkins: Powerful stuff http://t.co/e0ADWWEJFl
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Fenster said:

    @ Mike Smithson & Kle4

    I think Clegg will hold on.

    Re the 2010 coalition, I don't think anybody really saw it coming, but I think history will judge it a) as a pretty amazing political event, and b) as a success.

    I still think that Cameron, Osborne, IDS, Letwin, Clegg, Cable, Huhne, Laws and Alexander deserve an enormous amount of credit for what they've pulled off. They've all suffered huge political fallout - particularly the Lib Dems with the votes shed, and Cameron too, with his right-wing - but they have led a mature, stable government during very difficult times and have broadly succeeded on their big-issue policies/reforms.

    I also think they had broadly reflected what the electorate wants; sound finances, stability, liberal tolerance on social issues, less tribalism and more political compromise.

    The coalition has angered the tribal voters on the right and on the left. But I suspect in the pursuit of decent governance, that's no bad thing.

    History will judge them well.

    Only if history forgets this

    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/aug/03/victims-britains-harsh-welfare-sanctions

    And this

    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/jan/10/disabled-tenants-bedroom-tax-challenge-supreme-court

    And this

    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/oct/14/uk-inequality-wealth-credit-suisse

    And the minor antics and lies

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/grant-shapps-more-half-voters-5350313

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nH2EmVGowCk

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2012/sep/20/nick-clegg-apology-tuition-fees-video
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653
    AndyJS said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/591667037212155905/photo/1

    Con + LD + UKIP + DUP = 319, just 4 short of the target. 3 short if the DUP win back Belfast East.
    Lab + SNP + DUP = 324. More likely than blue rainbow, I think.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    MikeSmithson said:

    53 minutes to the next YouGov and no Tweets from Newton-Dunn. What's it going to be?

    Going to 7 days a week has killed it, Mike, along with the decision to weight all samples to a January Labour lead.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @iankatz1000: This is big potatoes...on the face of it dramatically reduces Miliband's options for building majority bloc https://t.co/cgaLtsicaS
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,680
    OllyT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Major news


    Nick Clegg on Friday dealt a blow to the chances of a Labour/Liberal Democrat coalition in a hung parliament as he ruled out any deal that relied on “life support” from the Scottish National party.

    The Lib Dem leader also argued that any coalition with the party that finished second in the election — on most current projections Labour — would lack “legitimacy” with voters, who would question the government’s “birthright”.

    In the clearest sign yet that he is contemplating a renewal of his 2010 coalition with the Conservatives, Mr Clegg told the Financial Times that Labour had been consumed by “frothing bile” towards his party for the past five years.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/fd3b7bec-ea97-11e4-8c7e-00144feab7de.html#axzz3YG2FI5JE

    Might be Clegg's view but he will have a hell of a battle getting the rest of the party to agree to another 5 years with the Tories
    You are right. This is not like last time when the arithmetic drove the answer, and LD MPs and members were quite easily persuaded to support the coalition (me included).

    This time it is different. The arithmetic will favour a Lab/LD deal, and LD MPs and activists are scarred by the last five years. Clegg, Alexander and Laws have their own agenda. They'll have great difficulty is selling it to the rest of the party.

    Alexander will be gone and I suspect there will be an immediate campaign by Local Parties and many MPs to replace Clegg.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    chestnut said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    53 minutes to the next YouGov and no Tweets from Newton-Dunn. What's it going to be?

    Going to 7 days a week has killed it, Mike, along with the decision to weight all samples to a January Labour lead.

    Indeed: QTWTAI meh.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587
    edited April 2015
    Freggles said:

    Fenster said:

    @ Mike Smithson & Kle4

    I think Clegg will hold on.

    Re the 2010 coalitio

    Only if history forgets this

    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/aug/03/victims-britains-harsh-welfare-sanctions

    And this

    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/jan/10/disabled-tenants-bedroom-tax-challenge-supreme-court

    And this

    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/oct/14/uk-inequality-wealth-credit-suisse

    And the minor antics and lies

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/grant-shapps-more-half-voters-5350313

    htp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nH2EmVGowCk

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2012/sep/20/nick-clegg-apology-tuition-fees-video
    Minor antics and lies are part and parcel of all government. Welfare changes are popular with many, even if there have been missteps.

    Nevertheless, many of the key 'achievements' of the coalition have indeed been controversial - many people like them, many hate them with a passion, which is incidentally one reason the Tories have trouble talking about things other than the economy, because changes in things like Welfare and Education anger large groups even if they also have support - but in terms of proving coalition government can work stably and effectively, when many said it would not and hoped it would not, and fighting against often unhelpful interventions from within their own sides, the leaderships have achieved something noteworthy even if one does not like what they did with that achievement.

    One would hope the historical analysis would look at more than just the policy detail, important though that is. Sometimes there are larger impacts and more subtle successes than is apparent at the time, and which may not even have been intended by those making the decisions.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited April 2015
    chestnut said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    53 minutes to the next YouGov and no Tweets from Newton-Dunn. What's it going to be?

    Going to 7 days a week has killed it, Mike, along with the decision to weight all samples to a January Labour lead.

    Labour was ahead in January in most pollsters, if the picture had changed since January then it would have shown since they are mostly the same people, that is the basic thesis of the yougov method.

    Oh and I'm saving my 4000th post for a more special occasion than just commenting on a typical yougov poll.
    Goodnight.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    EPG said:

    AndyJS said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/591667037212155905/photo/1

    Con + LD + UKIP + DUP = 319, just 4 short of the target. 3 short if the DUP win back Belfast East.
    Lab + SNP + DUP = 324. More likely than blue rainbow, I think.
    The DUP won't have anything to do with an SNP coalition or agreement.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    tyson said:

    Is anyone else watching the cricket? Two teams with pedestrian bowlers on slow wickets. It's still worth watching mind- UKIP cricket, a throwback to a different era when no team ever won a match.
    I've tried to explain test cricket to Italians. It baffles them. 5 days of 6-7 hours play a day, and often ends up as a draw They don't get the point.
    There is a review....

    I'm listening to the cricket. The whole point of cricket is it's like real life. You have boring passages of play and exciting ones. You need the boring bits to appreciate the exciting bits. Maybe the Italians would understand that way of explaining it.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    edited April 2015
    saddened said:

    Fenster said:

    @ Mike Smithson & Kle4

    I think Clegg will hold on.

    Re the 2010 coalition, I don't think anybody really saw it coming, but I think history will judge it a) as a pretty amazing political event, and b) as a success.

    I still think that Cameron, Osborne, IDS, Letwin, Clegg, Cable, Huhne, Laws and Alexander deserve an enormous amount of credit for what they've pulled off. They've all suffered huge political fallout - particularly the Lib Dems with the votes shed, and Cameron too, with his right-wing - but they have led a mature, stable government during very difficult times and have broadly succeeded on their big-issue policies/reforms.

    I also think they had broadly reflected what the electorate wants; sound finances, stability, liberal tolerance on social issues, less tribalism and more political compromise.

    The coalition has angered the tribal voters on the right and on the left. But I suspect in the pursuit of decent governance, that's no bad thing.

    History will judge them well.

    Apart from Cable and Hunhe, nothing to argue with there. Cable has been a non entity, Huhne, less said the better.
    I was referring to their efforts in putting the coalition together - took some bravery and a hell of a leap of faith at the beginning.

    On Cable, I guess he has worked hard but has found it difficult putting his left-of-centre soul into a tory-led govt. It's been disappointing watching his Oakeshott buddy being so off-message (you sense Cable is speaking with forked tongue, to his lefty supporters, through Oakeshott). But aside from that, they've all worked commendably well together.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BethRigby: SNP/Labour attack lines: Tory minister: "We call McMiliband now, English voters don't want 2b ruled by the Scots" http://t.co/gEWP4aa6j5
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Test cricket is the greatest sport in the world.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587
    AndyJS said:

    tyson said:

    Is anyone else watching the cricket? Two teams with pedestrian bowlers on slow wickets. It's still worth watching mind- UKIP cricket, a throwback to a different era when no team ever won a match.
    I've tried to explain test cricket to Italians. It baffles them. 5 days of 6-7 hours play a day, and often ends up as a draw They don't get the point.
    There is a review....

    I'm listening to the cricket. The whole point of cricket is it's like real life. You have boring passages of play and exciting ones. You need the boring bits to appreciate the exciting bits. Maybe the Italians would understand that way of explaining it.
    The length of time accentuates the drama, allows for more shifts back and forth, I always feel. When you have a five day game that can still come down to the final hour, the final overs, the suspense is mesmerizing. You can relax, listening and tuning in on and off for days as a pleasant distraction but nothing more, then passages of frantic activity turn things on its head and days of effort from an entire team can pay off or come to nothing. Such glory.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653
    kle4 said:

    Looking at a map of the 2010 results, the thought occurs that one could make a bet on whether there will be any LD seats that border another LD seat. 2 in Wales at present, a bunch in Scotland and the SW, and the SW London seats, otherwise they are scattered all over the place, a few in the shires and some on the edges or, rare, inner cities.

    It seems unlikely they'll retain enough seats in Scotland to border each other, I don't know how likely their Welsh seats are, and we've had at least one poll predicting a bad time in the SW, so while with 20ish seats I imagine a couple at least will border each other, can it be assumed?

    OTher chances are Mid Wales, Lewes/Eastbourne, doing the double in the London Borough of Sutton, and MAYBE Cheadle/Hazel Grove.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited April 2015
    Speedy said:

    Labour was ahead in January in most pollsters,

    Tories were in front in January on phone polls and YG's own numbers equalled 0.5 lead in total - not 1 - and that included an extreme during the Xmas/NY holiday.

    There is too much Yougov and I'd be astonished if any newspaper was silly enough to repeat the exercise.

  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Is it just me or has the election gotten boring in the last 7 days or so?
    Of course there is still the mathematical uncertainty, but the manifestos were a dud. Where is our bigotgate or Cleggmania?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    kle4 said:


    Minor antics and lies are part and parcel of all government. Welfare changes are popular with many, even if there have been missteps.

    Most polls give Labour a lead over the Tories on welfare, though.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Freggles said:

    Is it just me or has the election gotten boring in the last 7 days or so?
    Of course there is still the mathematical uncertainty, but the manifestos were a dud. Where is our bigotgate or Cleggmania?

    The "short" campaign should be 3 weeks, not 5.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,135
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    For those of us with bets on Scottish Pandas vs Scot Tory MPs, this story maybe of interest

    Pandas break mating record with 40-minute sex marathon

    http://tinyurl.com/TheRandyPandyBuggers

    132 elected Tories in Scotland!

    1 MP (for now)
    1 MEP
    15 MSPs
    115 local councillors

    :)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,135
    AndyJS said:

    tyson said:

    Is anyone else watching the cricket? Two teams with pedestrian bowlers on slow wickets. It's still worth watching mind- UKIP cricket, a throwback to a different era when no team ever won a match.
    I've tried to explain test cricket to Italians. It baffles them. 5 days of 6-7 hours play a day, and often ends up as a draw They don't get the point.
    There is a review....

    I'm listening to the cricket. The whole point of cricket is it's like real life. You have boring passages of play and exciting ones. You need the boring bits to appreciate the exciting bits. Maybe the Italians would understand that way of explaining it.
    AndyJS said:

    tyson said:

    Is anyone else watching the cricket? Two teams with pedestrian bowlers on slow wickets. It's still worth watching mind- UKIP cricket, a throwback to a different era when no team ever won a match.
    I've tried to explain test cricket to Italians. It baffles them. 5 days of 6-7 hours play a day, and often ends up as a draw They don't get the point.
    There is a review....

    I'm listening to the cricket. The whole point of cricket is it's like real life. You have boring passages of play and exciting ones. You need the boring bits to appreciate the exciting bits. Maybe the Italians would understand that way of explaining it.
    Yaaaawwwwwnnnnnnn :)
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    AndyJS said:

    tyson said:

    Is anyone else watching the cricket? Two teams with pedestrian bowlers on slow wickets. It's still worth watching mind- UKIP cricket, a throwback to a different era when no team ever won a match.
    I've tried to explain test cricket to Italians. It baffles them. 5 days of 6-7 hours play a day, and often ends up as a draw They don't get the point.
    There is a review....

    I'm listening to the cricket. The whole point of cricket is it's like real life. You have boring passages of play and exciting ones. You need the boring bits to appreciate the exciting bits. Maybe the Italians would understand that way of explaining it.
    Andy JS- I thought you are Chancy Gardner, and I think I'm right
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,680
    EPG said:

    AndyJS said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/591667037212155905/photo/1

    Con + LD + UKIP + DUP = 319, just 4 short of the target. 3 short if the DUP win back Belfast East.
    Lab + SNP + DUP = 324. More likely than blue rainbow, I think.
    Or Lab + SNP + Green + PC + SDLP + Respect = 324 (plus LDs)
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    kle4 said:



    Con-UKIP (The 'conservative wet dream alliance')

    Not for this con, not by a long distance. I would prefer opposition, before relying on that shower.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,680
    SeanT said:

    Freggles said:

    Is it just me or has the election gotten boring in the last 7 days or so?
    Of course there is still the mathematical uncertainty, but the manifestos were a dud. Where is our bigotgate or Cleggmania?

    It's just you. This is the most intriguing election, for so many reasons, in many decades. Anyone who claims otherwise is a twit, with zero hindsight.

    .. and foresight.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    SeanT said:

    Freggles said:

    Is it just me or has the election gotten boring in the last 7 days or so?
    Of course there is still the mathematical uncertainty, but the manifestos were a dud. Where is our bigotgate or Cleggmania?

    It's just you. This is the most intriguing election, for so many reasons, in many decades. Anyone who claims otherwise is a twit, with zero hindsight.

    Nah.
    It started out strong and the premise is interesting, but no gaffes or breakthroughs, unless you count Ed and Milifandom.
This discussion has been closed.