The one hope for the Tories is that the 5% swing in England is concentrated in areas where they don't have many seats or targets like the northern conurbations.
Pulpstar Moderate Tory, somewhat liberal, unionist I suppose
The only side that's raised IndyRef 2 is the unionist one at this GE. It's a Holyrood 2016 issue
I rather think the point is the unionist side don't think it should be a Holyrood 2016 issue either, and are trying to head things off early, especially since as there's no point in being cagey that it will be an issue then, and it is absurd to suggest that an SNP landslide at the GE does not have implications for the IndyRef2 issue. It's certainly relevant now what may happen in a year, so what difference does it make if it is raised now or in a year?
UKIP holding up ok in this one I note, even as the LDs remain rooted to the mid to late single digits. Course for both of them its about clustering what little vote share they have in a few areas, even more than for the big two, but the higher the share the better a chance of managing that in more places. UKIP 3-4?
The one hope for the Tories is that the 5% swing in England is concentrated in areas where they don't have many seats or targets like the northern conurbations.
LordA's fresh constituency polls point to a 3-4% swing in Tory seats in England and Wales excluding London, but 7% swings in the London area. Enough for about 45 Labour gains from the Tories.
Re announcement of Cabinet Minister in the next government (if in power).
It would have to be a potential game changer i.e. a popular political character in either the Tories or Socialists stable. Popular that is with the public, not just political nerds. And probably very popular in an area where additional seats are desperately needed.
I can only think of 1 person that would fit the bill.
The one hope for the Tories is that the 5% swing in England is concentrated in areas where they don't have many seats or targets like the northern conurbations.
One of the peculiarities about this parliament has been the absence of Con/Lab switchers. Labour's England gains should be skewed to LD seats/wards.
I have come to the conclusion (drunk in Darwin airport at 4am, waiting for a bloody Air Maynotmakeit, sorry, Air Malaysia flight) that the only sensible Coalition post 2015 will be UKIP-Green-Nat-Sinn-Fein-Mebyon-Kernow, in which everybody becomes independent from everybody else, except for taxation purposes, and the 10 trillion pound wélfare budget is paid by one unfortunate French-American banker temporarily resident in Cadogan Square.
Frankly one of your more coherent comments about this election.
Re announcement of Cabinet Minister in the next government (if in power).
It would have to be a potential game changer i.e. a popular political character in either the Tories or Socialists stable. Popular that is with the public, not just political nerds. And probably very popular in an area where additional seats are desperately needed.
I can only think of 1 person that would fit the bill.
UKIP holding up ok in this one I note, even as the LDs remain rooted to the mid to late single digits. Course for both of them its about clustering what little vote share they have in a few areas, even more than for the big two, but the higher the share the better a chance of managing that in more places. UKIP 3-4?
UKIP on 18.5% in England - take away London and we're looking at an AVERAGE of 20% surely?
Golly. Easy joke - it will be the SNP announcing Ed can take the PM role in the Cabinet.
Wouldn't it be better to announce it in time for the papers? Or is the idea if, beyond all reason, it becomes the first thing in this campaign to shift momentum, it can be discussed for the Sunday papers
Re announcement of Cabinet Minister in the next government (if in power).
It would have to be a potential game changer i.e. a popular political character in either the Tories or Socialists stable. Popular that is with the public, not just political nerds. And probably very popular in an area where additional seats are desperately needed.
I can only think of 1 person that would fit the bill.
I simply don't see any more than a coalescing of all polls (bar ICM) around a general dead heat (CON +2 to LAB +2). The 30% Conservative figure in the last Survation was a clear outlier and I note the 51% CON-UKIP number as well above the 45-48% of other pollsters.
The 39% CON figure from ICM stands alone and has been widely commented on.
Jeremy Clarkson a chum of Cameron will be appointed as Minister of Transport and as the announcement is at midnight Clarkson will announce all public transport will be by a pumpkin carriage pulled by a team of white mice.
The one hope for the Tories is that the 5% swing in England is concentrated in areas where they don't have many seats or targets like the northern conurbations.
One of the peculiarities about this parliament has been the absence of Con/Lab switchers. Labour's England gains should be skewed to LD seats/wards.
We would have seen than in LordA's constituency polls, there is not much sign of that apart from the swing in Tory seats being 2x size in London than elsewhere, apart from London it's a 3-4% swing in his latest polls, but still enough to make LAB largest party by a squeaker even if they lose all their scottish seats.
So all polls except ICM are now showing level pegging. I reckon ICM is closer to the truth, but is probably over-doing it a bit. The only issue is how close to a majority the Tories get.
Re announcement of Cabinet Minister in the next government (if in power).
It would have to be a potential game changer i.e. a popular political character in either the Tories or Socialists stable. Popular that is with the public, not just political nerds. And probably very popular in an area where additional seats are desperately needed.
I can only think of 1 person that would fit the bill.
Jacob Rees-Mogg?
Since he might be the only non-SNP MP left in Scotland, both Tories and Labour announce Alistair Carmichael can continue as Scottish Secretary?
The ministerial announcement is a joint announcement, in the event of a hung parliament the parties will appoint me as Dictator of the UK for a period of 10 years.
The slogan will be "TSE - putting the Dic in Dictator"
The ministerial announcement is a joint announcement, in the event of a hung parliament the parties will appoint me as Dictator of the UK for a period of 10 years.
The slogan will be "TSE - putting the Dic in Dictator"
I think it has to be Brown or Boris - there is nobody else whose announcement would be important enough to bother doing it - remember most people can only name a tiny number of politicians - nobody else would be known to enough people.
The ministerial announcement is a joint announcement, in the event of a hung parliament the parties will appoint me as Dictator of the UK for a period of 10 years.
The slogan will be "TSE - putting the Dic in Dictator"
I thought First Consul was the title usually adopted by dictators with (initially) a ten-year term?
The one hope for the Tories is that the 5% swing in England is concentrated in areas where they don't have many seats or targets like the northern conurbations.
Conservative seats in the old English metropolitan counties at risk:
Brentford Croydon C Ealing Acton Enfield N Enfield Southgate Finchley Harrow E Hendon Ilford N
I think it has to be Brown or Johnson - there is nobody else whose announcement would be important enough to bother doing it - remember most people can only name a tiny number of politicians - nobody else would be known to enough people.
But Brown's stepping down. I suppose he is guaranteed to be offered a peerage (Major and Blair didn't want theirs IIRC).
Sure is. The polls are not playing ball in this election, we must make up our own excitement. Fortunately nothing but moe moves can still appropriately spark panicked reactions given the inevitable outcomes so long as that continues.
I think it has to be Brown or Boris - there is nobody else whose announcement would be important enough to bother doing it - remember most people can only name a tiny number of politicians - nobody else would be known to enough people.
I actually hope it is Major. That would be a seriously, seriously good call.
Broon would probably destroy Labour south of Berwick.
All that said, probably Johnson. But what role? Foreign sec? Hammond wouldn't stand for it unless Chancellor. Health? Perhaps. Transport would be a good idea.....
The ministerial announcement is a joint announcement, in the event of a hung parliament the parties will appoint me as Dictator of the UK for a period of 10 years.
The slogan will be "TSE - putting the Dic in Dictator"
I thought First Consul was the title usually adopted by dictators with (initially) a ten-year term?
First Consul doesn't have the same impact. There's a reason David Cameron is called the Prime Minister, not First Lord of the Treasury.
If you want good news - it is Labour falling back, not Tories surging ahead - so assume it is an effect of the good Lord's polling. The Tories have GOT to get that figure over 300.
I suspect the Tories will get either 20 seats more or 20 seats less than the spread. It all depends where the 20% UKIP voters appear.
Are they thinking of backtracking? Still 4 hours till ghosts come out.
Faisal Islam @faisalislam 16m16 minutes ago Confidence: “@SamCoatesTimes: at midnight, a main political parties will announce a ministerial appointment in next govt (if they win) Gosh”
I think it has to be Brown or Boris - there is nobody else whose announcement would be important enough to bother doing it - remember most people can only name a tiny number of politicians - nobody else would be known to enough people.
You don't think the good voters of Britain will have the question of whether they want Justine Greening or Mary Creagh as International Development Secretary weighing HEAVILY on their minds in the polling booths?
Re announcement of Cabinet Minister in the next government (if in power).
It would have to be a potential game changer i.e. a popular political character in either the Tories or Socialists stable. Popular that is with the public, not just political nerds. And probably very popular in an area where additional seats are desperately needed.
I can only think of 1 person that would fit the bill.
Jacob Rees-Mogg?
An excellent politician. Although I cannot see him towing party line.
The Mogg accused the Tories of behaving like tyrants:
He can't have a ministerial job until next May, or he'd have to stand down as Mayor of London, which would trigger a Mayoral Election very quickly
Balancing off the hope that Boris could spark an upturn that would help Cameron stay as PM in 2015 vs sparking an early mayoral election the Tories will probably lose anyway?
Re announcement of Cabinet Minister in the next government (if in power).
It would have to be a potential game changer i.e. a popular political character in either the Tories or Socialists stable. Popular that is with the public, not just political nerds. And probably very popular in an area where additional seats are desperately needed.
I can only think of 1 person that would fit the bill.
Jacob Rees-Mogg?
An excellent politician. Although I cannot see him towing party line.
The Mogg accused the Tories of behaving like tyrants:
A fair point, I suspect he would prefer to stay on the back benches.
UKIP holding up ok in this one I note, even as the LDs remain rooted to the mid to late single digits. Course for both of them its about clustering what little vote share they have in a few areas, even more than for the big two, but the higher the share the better a chance of managing that in more places. UKIP 3-4?
UKIP on 18.5% in England - take away London and we're looking at an AVERAGE of 20% surely?
Quite. And people think that ukip are just gonna evanesce, like morning dew in May? Nah. Barring a Tory wake up, they are here to stay, like the Nats in Scotland. Indeed I think the success of the Nats north of the Border will embolden WWC English people to vote for a new, unlazy party that more truly represents their interests.
As above, so below.
I've always thought UKIP would get 20% in England outside London and nothing's happened to change my mind recently. Of course that would give them an awful lot of second places in both safe Tory and Labour seats.
** FREE MONEY ** FREE MONEY ** Back Cameron to be next PM at Evens with SkyBet (52.38% stake) Back Miliband to be next PM at 6/5 (2.2) with Corals (47.62% of stake)
Which ever is the next PM results in a 4.76% Profit on the total stake over 6 weeks and 3 days. DYOR
He can't have a ministerial job until next May, or he'd have to stand down as Mayor of London, which would trigger a Mayoral Election very quickly
Balancing off the hope that Boris could spark an upturn that would help Cameron stay as PM in 2015 vs sparking an early mayoral election the Tories will probably lose anyway?
The LD could demand the leadership of the house of lords (since they will have more lords than commoners in parliament).
I think it has to be Brown or Boris - there is nobody else whose announcement would be important enough to bother doing it - remember most people can only name a tiny number of politicians - nobody else would be known to enough people.
You don't think the good voters of Britain will have the question of whether they want Justine Greening or Mary Creagh as International Development Secretary weighing HEAVILY on their minds in the polling booths?
Lord Sugar, BIS.
Or I agree, John Major as Minister for EU Renegotiation, but won't that just wind up those who remember the Maastricht debacle?
UKIP holding up ok in this one I note, even as the LDs remain rooted to the mid to late single digits. Course for both of them its about clustering what little vote share they have in a few areas, even more than for the big two, but the higher the share the better a chance of managing that in more places. UKIP 3-4?
UKIP on 18.5% in England - take away London and we're looking at an AVERAGE of 20% surely?
Quite. And people think that ukip are just gonna evanesce, like morning dew in May? Nah. Barring a Tory wake up, they are here to stay, like the Nats in Scotland. Indeed I think the success of the Nats north of the Border will embolden WWC English people to vote for a new, unlazy party that more truly represents their interests.
As above, so below.
I think some people forseeing the end of UKIP have made the mistake of thinking that just because they have slipped back from the very highest they have managed in the polls, and the implications arising from that, that what they will probably end up getting is not worth anything.
As you say, the level of their vote will be hugely significant. 2 years ago I had doubts if they could maintain a presence and growth if their vote went up but they still go no MPs (as seemed probable at the time). Now they will have that to help drive them forward, not just a bunch of second places in by-elections.
UKIP holding up ok in this one I note, even as the LDs remain rooted to the mid to late single digits. Course for both of them its about clustering what little vote share they have in a few areas, even more than for the big two, but the higher the share the better a chance of managing that in more places. UKIP 3-4?
UKIP on 18.5% in England - take away London and we're looking at an AVERAGE of 20% surely?
Quite. And people think that ukip are just gonna evanesce, like morning dew in May? Nah. Barring a Tory wake up, they are here to stay, like the Nats in Scotland. Indeed I think the success of the Nats north of the Border will embolden WWC English people to vote for a new, unlazy party that more truly represents their interests.
As above, so below.
I've always thought UKIP would get 20% in England outside London and nothing's happened to change my mind recently. Of course that would give them an awful lot of second places in both safe Tory and Labour seats.
No chance of 20% this election. Next one maybe, if the cards fall right for them and they play them skilfully. 15% in England minus London perhaps.
UKIP holding up ok in this one I note, even as the LDs remain rooted to the mid to late single digits. Course for both of them its about clustering what little vote share they have in a few areas, even more than for the big two, but the higher the share the better a chance of managing that in more places. UKIP 3-4?
UKIP on 18.5% in England - take away London and we're looking at an AVERAGE of 20% surely?
Quite. And people think that ukip are just gonna evanesce, like morning dew in May? Nah. Barring a Tory wake up, they are here to stay, like the Nats in Scotland. Indeed I think the success of the Nats north of the Border will embolden WWC English people to vote for a new, unlazy party that more truly represents their interests.
As above, so below.
I've always thought UKIP would get 20% in England outside London and nothing's happened to change my mind recently. Of course that would give them an awful lot of second places in both safe Tory and Labour seats.
No chance of 20% this election. Next one maybe, if the cards fall right for them and they play them skilfully. 15% in England minus London perhaps.
That would put them on about 10-12% overall which seems a bit low to me.
The ministerial announcement is a joint announcement, in the event of a hung parliament the parties will appoint me as Dictator of the UK for a period of 10 years.
The slogan will be "TSE - putting the Dic in Dictator"
I thought First Consul was the title usually adopted by dictators with (initially) a ten-year term?
First Consul doesn't have the same impact. There's a reason David Cameron is called the Prime Minister, not First Lord of the Treasury.
This is true. The last First Consul upped his title to provide additional umph later in his career.
** FREE MONEY ** FREE MONEY ** Back Cameron to be next PM at Evens with SkyBet (52.38% stake) Back Miliband to be next PM at 6/5 (2.2) with Corals (47.62% of stake)
Which ever is the next PM results in a 4.76% Profit on the total stake over 6 weeks and 3 days. DYOR
The amount of free money being given away by the bookies on their Scottish markets has been crazy today.
Left field guess- Michael Gove back to education. I'm not sure what the purpose of this would be though.
No way. They have detoxified education as a campaign issue and Nicky Morgan has won a lot of support from teachers, reversing the pure hatred they had for Gove. It would be suicidal to make education a prime issue by pre-announcing Gove. My guess is that it will be someone like UKIP saying they would require Nige to be Europe minister as a part of any coalition.
UKIP holding up ok in this one I note, even as the LDs remain rooted to the mid to late single digits. Course for both of them its about clustering what little vote share they have in a few areas, even more than for the big two, but the higher the share the better a chance of managing that in more places. UKIP 3-4?
UKIP on 18.5% in England - take away London and we're looking at an AVERAGE of 20% surely?
Quite. And people think that ukip are just gonna evanesce, like morning dew in May? Nah. Barring a Tory wake up, they are here to stay, like the Nats in Scotland. Indeed I think the success of the Nats north of the Border will embolden WWC English people to vote for a new, unlazy party that more truly represents their interests.
As above, so below.
The Tories can gain UKIP voters back. Or they can keep the metropolitan, professional classes on board.
They cannot do both.
We know from the "forced coalition" choice question that remaining Conservative voters split 60 LibDem, 40 UKIP.
This essentially means there are three voting blocks of about 33% each in the UK:
The BBC are not fit for purpose. It says ICM picked the audience, not the BBC.
Yes it was obviously a biased audience, but unless the BBC gave instructions to that effect, which has not been proven, I don't see how they can be blamed for it if they handed the job to an independent company.
Edit: Oh, and I thought Farage appealed to me the most during the debate, so my opinion is not because I hate UKIP or Farage. It was interesting that the people asking the questions framed them in a way that was favourable to the right I felt, even if the audience as a whole was way to the left.
UKIP holding up ok in this one I note, even as the LDs remain rooted to the mid to late single digits. Course for both of them its about clustering what little vote share they have in a few areas, even more than for the big two, but the higher the share the better a chance of managing that in more places. UKIP 3-4?
UKIP on 18.5% in England - take away London and we're looking at an AVERAGE of 20% surely?
Quite. And people think that ukip are just gonna evanesce, like morning dew in May? Nah. Barring a Tory wake up, they are here to stay, like the Nats in Scotland. Indeed I think the success of the Nats north of the Border will embolden WWC English people to vote for a new, unlazy party that more truly represents their interests.
As above, so below.
I've always thought UKIP would get 20% in England outside London and nothing's happened to change my mind recently. Of course that would give them an awful lot of second places in both safe Tory and Labour seats.
No chance of 20% this election. Next one maybe, if the cards fall right for them and they play them skilfully. 15% in England minus London perhaps.
They could be on 15% in the whole country now. The welsh poll had them on 13% and I doubt UKIP is going to perform the same or worse in England ex-London, Wales is not famous for being kippery.
It wasn't so much that they were a leftist audience, but more the fact that it seemed like a metropolitan audience, the BBC/ICM just seemed to have rounded up a bunch of Londoners and stuck them in a studio and only asked them their VI rather than views on issues like immigration and health. Whatever it was there is no way the audience was representative of the views of British people, it felt like a Westminster bubble type of audience.
Does nothing move the SPIN market? - SNP spread unchanged all day...
And PS: Are the 2015 boundaries EXACTLY the same as the 2010 boundaries?
Although I have been wrongly contradicted by OGH before, the Sporting Spread Prices as advertised above the posting box are not adjusted in real time and are therefore highly misleading. For example the SNP spread on Sporting's website is 47-49, compared with 41.5-43.5 shown above.
Left field guess- Michael Gove back to education. I'm not sure what the purpose of this would be though.
No way. They have detoxified education as a campaign issue and Nicky Morgan has won a lot of support from teachers, reversing the pure hatred they had for Gove. It would be suicidal to make education a prime issue by pre-announcing Gove. My guess is that it will be someone like UKIP saying they would require Nige to be Europe minister as a part of any coalition.
With the teachers I know there is a real herd mentality when it comes to Gove. When you question them on what they dislike about him they fail to come up with a coherent answer. Sometimes you might get a regurgitated Union message.
UKIP holding up ok in this one I note, even as the LDs remain rooted to the mid to late single digits. Course for both of them its about clustering what little vote share they have in a few areas, even more than for the big two, but the higher the share the better a chance of managing that in more places. UKIP 3-4?
UKIP on 18.5% in England - take away London and we're looking at an AVERAGE of 20% surely?
Quite. And people think that ukip are just gonna evanesce, like morning dew in May? Nah. Barring a Tory wake up, they are here to stay, like the Nats in Scotland. Indeed I think the success of the Nats north of the Border will embolden WWC English people to vote for a new, unlazy party that more truly represents their interests.
As above, so below.
This essentially means there are three voting blocks of about 33% each in the UK:
UKIP-Con LibCon Labour-SNP-Green
Rough choices. I guess I'm LibCon then, gun to my head.
UKIP holding up ok in this one I note, even as the LDs remain rooted to the mid to late single digits. Course for both of them its about clustering what little vote share they have in a few areas, even more than for the big two, but the higher the share the better a chance of managing that in more places. UKIP 3-4?
UKIP on 18.5% in England - take away London and we're looking at an AVERAGE of 20% surely?
Quite. And people think that ukip are just gonna evanesce, like morning dew in May? Nah. Barring a Tory wake up, they are here to stay, like the Nats in Scotland. Indeed I think the success of the Nats north of the Border will embolden WWC English people to vote for a new, unlazy party that more truly represents their interests.
As above, so below.
This essentially means there are three voting blocks of about 33% each in the UK:
UKIP-Con LibCon Labour-SNP-Green
Rough choices. I guess I'm LibCon then, gun to my head.
Comments
Opinium?
YG?
Oh, and 1st!
If they do or do not replicate any similar move then you would know.
And PS: Are the 2015 boundaries EXACTLY the same as the 2010 boundaries?
FPT: I rather think the point is the unionist side don't think it should be a Holyrood 2016 issue either, and are trying to head things off early, especially since as there's no point in being cagey that it will be an issue then, and it is absurd to suggest that an SNP landslide at the GE does not have implications for the IndyRef2 issue. It's certainly relevant now what may happen in a year, so what difference does it make if it is raised now or in a year?
Oohhh ....
Enough for about 45 Labour gains from the Tories.
It would have to be a potential game changer i.e. a popular political character in either the Tories or Socialists stable. Popular that is with the public, not just political nerds. And probably very popular in an area where additional seats are desperately needed.
I can only think of 1 person that would fit the bill.
Opinium: Con+2
TNS: Con+2
Comres: Con+1
Survation: Con+1
Yougov: Tie
Ashcroft: Tie
Panelbase: Lab+1
Populus: Lab+1
Ipsos: Lab+2
http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/uncategorized/the-ebb-and-flow-how-the-flow-of-the-vote-adds-up-to-a-liberal-democrat-collapse-in-may/
Wouldn't it be better to announce it in time for the papers? Or is the idea if, beyond all reason, it becomes the first thing in this campaign to shift momentum, it can be discussed for the Sunday papers
(I sincerely hope not!)
The 39% CON figure from ICM stands alone and has been widely commented on.
http://bet2015.co.uk/
The slogan will be "TSE - putting the Dic in Dictator"
It will help to guess if we know which newspaper has the exclusive (i.e the Mirror, Express, Telergaph).
Brentford
Croydon C
Ealing Acton
Enfield N
Enfield Southgate
Finchley
Harrow E
Hendon
Ilford N
Dudley S
Halesowen
Wolverhampton SW
Wirral W
Bury N
Dewsbury
Keighley
Pudsey
EDIT: Actually, a job for Boris would make sense too.
Broon would probably destroy Labour south of Berwick.
All that said, probably Johnson. But what role? Foreign sec? Hammond wouldn't stand for it unless Chancellor. Health? Perhaps. Transport would be a good idea.....
I suspect the Tories will get either 20 seats more or 20 seats less than the spread. It all depends where the 20% UKIP voters appear.
I believe Labour's press team are night owls though.
Still 4 hours till ghosts come out.
Faisal Islam @faisalislam 16m16 minutes ago
Confidence: “@SamCoatesTimes: at midnight, a main political parties will announce a ministerial appointment in next govt (if they win) Gosh”
The Mogg accused the Tories of behaving like tyrants:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f-WgVZLVhyY
He can't have a ministerial job until next May, or he'd have to stand down as Mayor of London, which would trigger a Mayoral Election very quickly
Anyone backing the Windies to score 150 in the final session?
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/589137446471868417
Back Cameron to be next PM at Evens with SkyBet (52.38% stake)
Back Miliband to be next PM at 6/5 (2.2) with Corals (47.62% of stake)
Which ever is the next PM results in a 4.76% Profit on the total stake over 6 weeks and 3 days.
DYOR
Or I agree, John Major as Minister for EU Renegotiation, but won't that just wind up those who remember the Maastricht debacle?
As you say, the level of their vote will be hugely significant. 2 years ago I had doubts if they could maintain a presence and growth if their vote went up but they still go no MPs (as seemed probable at the time). Now they will have that to help drive them forward, not just a bunch of second places in by-elections.
Hannan's the man!
I wonder if anybody would like to ask Labour PPC Keir Starmer about his handling of this?
(They have a pretty good chance to save it IMHO but not to win. Remember there are different rules in test Matches e.g. definition of a wide etc.)
Or they can keep the metropolitan, professional classes on board.
They cannot do both.
We know from the "forced coalition" choice question that remaining Conservative voters split 60 LibDem, 40 UKIP.
This essentially means there are three voting blocks of about 33% each in the UK:
UKIP-Con
LibCon
Labour-SNP-Green
It says ICM picked the audience, not the BBC.
Yes it was obviously a biased audience, but unless the BBC gave instructions to that effect, which has not been proven, I don't see how they can be blamed for it if they handed the job to an independent company.
Edit: Oh, and I thought Farage appealed to me the most during the debate, so my opinion is not because I hate UKIP or Farage. It was interesting that the people asking the questions framed them in a way that was favourable to the right I felt, even if the audience as a whole was way to the left.
The welsh poll had them on 13% and I doubt UKIP is going to perform the same or worse in England ex-London, Wales is not famous for being kippery.
It wasn't so much that they were a leftist audience, but more the fact that it seemed like a metropolitan audience, the BBC/ICM just seemed to have rounded up a bunch of Londoners and stuck them in a studio and only asked them their VI rather than views on issues like immigration and health. Whatever it was there is no way the audience was representative of the views of British people, it felt like a Westminster bubble type of audience.
For example the SNP spread on Sporting's website is 47-49, compared with 41.5-43.5 shown above.