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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For only the second time ever Survation has CON ahead
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For only the second time ever Survation has CON ahead
Survation trend chart including their latest with CON lead pic.twitter.com/CtBrHBYt9Y
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Opinium?
YG?
Oh, and 1st!
If they do or do not replicate any similar move then you would know.
And PS: Are the 2015 boundaries EXACTLY the same as the 2010 boundaries?
FPT: I rather think the point is the unionist side don't think it should be a Holyrood 2016 issue either, and are trying to head things off early, especially since as there's no point in being cagey that it will be an issue then, and it is absurd to suggest that an SNP landslide at the GE does not have implications for the IndyRef2 issue. It's certainly relevant now what may happen in a year, so what difference does it make if it is raised now or in a year?
Oohhh ....
Enough for about 45 Labour gains from the Tories.
It would have to be a potential game changer i.e. a popular political character in either the Tories or Socialists stable. Popular that is with the public, not just political nerds. And probably very popular in an area where additional seats are desperately needed.
I can only think of 1 person that would fit the bill.
Opinium: Con+2
TNS: Con+2
Comres: Con+1
Survation: Con+1
Yougov: Tie
Ashcroft: Tie
Panelbase: Lab+1
Populus: Lab+1
Ipsos: Lab+2
http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/uncategorized/the-ebb-and-flow-how-the-flow-of-the-vote-adds-up-to-a-liberal-democrat-collapse-in-may/
Wouldn't it be better to announce it in time for the papers? Or is the idea if, beyond all reason, it becomes the first thing in this campaign to shift momentum, it can be discussed for the Sunday papers
(I sincerely hope not!)
The 39% CON figure from ICM stands alone and has been widely commented on.
http://bet2015.co.uk/
The slogan will be "TSE - putting the Dic in Dictator"
It will help to guess if we know which newspaper has the exclusive (i.e the Mirror, Express, Telergaph).
Brentford
Croydon C
Ealing Acton
Enfield N
Enfield Southgate
Finchley
Harrow E
Hendon
Ilford N
Dudley S
Halesowen
Wolverhampton SW
Wirral W
Bury N
Dewsbury
Keighley
Pudsey
EDIT: Actually, a job for Boris would make sense too.
Broon would probably destroy Labour south of Berwick.
All that said, probably Johnson. But what role? Foreign sec? Hammond wouldn't stand for it unless Chancellor. Health? Perhaps. Transport would be a good idea.....
I suspect the Tories will get either 20 seats more or 20 seats less than the spread. It all depends where the 20% UKIP voters appear.
I believe Labour's press team are night owls though.
Still 4 hours till ghosts come out.
Faisal Islam @faisalislam 16m16 minutes ago
Confidence: “@SamCoatesTimes: at midnight, a main political parties will announce a ministerial appointment in next govt (if they win) Gosh”
The Mogg accused the Tories of behaving like tyrants:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f-WgVZLVhyY
He can't have a ministerial job until next May, or he'd have to stand down as Mayor of London, which would trigger a Mayoral Election very quickly
Anyone backing the Windies to score 150 in the final session?
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/589137446471868417
Back Cameron to be next PM at Evens with SkyBet (52.38% stake)
Back Miliband to be next PM at 6/5 (2.2) with Corals (47.62% of stake)
Which ever is the next PM results in a 4.76% Profit on the total stake over 6 weeks and 3 days.
DYOR
Or I agree, John Major as Minister for EU Renegotiation, but won't that just wind up those who remember the Maastricht debacle?
As you say, the level of their vote will be hugely significant. 2 years ago I had doubts if they could maintain a presence and growth if their vote went up but they still go no MPs (as seemed probable at the time). Now they will have that to help drive them forward, not just a bunch of second places in by-elections.
Hannan's the man!
I wonder if anybody would like to ask Labour PPC Keir Starmer about his handling of this?
(They have a pretty good chance to save it IMHO but not to win. Remember there are different rules in test Matches e.g. definition of a wide etc.)
Or they can keep the metropolitan, professional classes on board.
They cannot do both.
We know from the "forced coalition" choice question that remaining Conservative voters split 60 LibDem, 40 UKIP.
This essentially means there are three voting blocks of about 33% each in the UK:
UKIP-Con
LibCon
Labour-SNP-Green
It says ICM picked the audience, not the BBC.
Yes it was obviously a biased audience, but unless the BBC gave instructions to that effect, which has not been proven, I don't see how they can be blamed for it if they handed the job to an independent company.
Edit: Oh, and I thought Farage appealed to me the most during the debate, so my opinion is not because I hate UKIP or Farage. It was interesting that the people asking the questions framed them in a way that was favourable to the right I felt, even if the audience as a whole was way to the left.
The welsh poll had them on 13% and I doubt UKIP is going to perform the same or worse in England ex-London, Wales is not famous for being kippery.
It wasn't so much that they were a leftist audience, but more the fact that it seemed like a metropolitan audience, the BBC/ICM just seemed to have rounded up a bunch of Londoners and stuck them in a studio and only asked them their VI rather than views on issues like immigration and health. Whatever it was there is no way the audience was representative of the views of British people, it felt like a Westminster bubble type of audience.
For example the SNP spread on Sporting's website is 47-49, compared with 41.5-43.5 shown above.