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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For only the second time ever Survation has CON ahead

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,013
    Brom said:

    isam said:

    Labour mobilising the Ukip vote in Thanet

    Will Scobie Campaign (@willscobie)
    14/04/2015 11:20
    Come to Ramsgate, Kent on Sunday (19th) with Owen Jones + help defeat Nigel Farage in 2015.
    facebook.com/events/1092250… pic.twitter.com/eY2AxgG7Lj

    I do wonder about Owen Jones and his complete lack of self awareness. One thing that won't go down well in South Thanet is a pontificating Guardian journalist with a largely negative message. It may even turn people off Will Scobie. Ohio 2004 anyone?!
    Tommorow - Tony Blair shows up in Glasgow ;)
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Pulpstar said:

    RodCrosby said:

    If SNP/Lab was a runner, but Tories had the most seats, would Miliband pass the chance, or go for it?

    Risk either way. Labour could get annihilated in England in 2020...

    Yes but he has 5 years of running the Gov't. Can gerrymander the next election a bit (Population etc)

    He wants desperately to be PM... I doubt the possible destruction of the Labour party in 2020 will stop him.

    Farron will be coming along to take a tonne of votes off his left flank in England anyway.
    Assuming Farron gets elected !
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,013
    edited April 2015
    surbiton said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RodCrosby said:

    If SNP/Lab was a runner, but Tories had the most seats, would Miliband pass the chance, or go for it?

    Risk either way. Labour could get annihilated in England in 2020...

    Yes but he has 5 years of running the Gov't. Can gerrymander the next election a bit (Population etc)

    He wants desperately to be PM... I doubt the possible destruction of the Labour party in 2020 will stop him.

    Farron will be coming along to take a tonne of votes off his left flank in England anyway.
    Assuming Farron gets elected !
    I think it is more likely than not.

    He is the safest Lib Dem of all.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited April 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    Stuart Hosie only has a 4% majority to defend in Dundee East.

    Could be tough.

    I didn't know you did sarcasm. :p
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,196
    asjohnstone In the fifties the Tories won majorities in Scotland, indeed in 1951 Churchill won a higher percentage of the vote in Scotland than in England or Wales
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    marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    The last UK-wide television set-piece of the General Election will be a special edition of Question Time broadcast live from Leeds on Thursday April 30th.

    A week before polling day, a Question Time Election Leaders Special will feature one by one Conservative leader David Cameron, Labour leader Ed Miliband and Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg.

    The programme, hosted by David Dimbleby, will be broadcast on BBC One and BBC News Channel live from 8pm to 9.30pm.

    Each of the leaders will separately face 30 minutes of questions posed by a studio audience with the usual Question Time format.

    Later the same evening there will be three special programmes broadcast on BBC One in different parts of the UK, in which Nicola Sturgeon, Leanne Wood and Nigel Farage will each answer voters’ questions for half an hour.

    On BBC One in Scotland, at 9.30pm Glenn Campbell will chair “Election 2015:Ask Nicola Sturgeon”, in which the SNP leader will take questions from an audience in Glasgow.

    On BBC One in Wales, after the News at Ten, an audience in Cardiff will put questions to the Plaid Cymru leader in ”Election 2015 :Ask Leanne Wood”.

    On BBC One in England, after the News at Ten, viewers will be able to see “Election 2015: Ask Nigel Farage”, chaired by Jo Coburn, in which the UKIP leader will take questions from an audience in Birmingham. The programme will also be shown later in the evening on BBC One in Wales.

    All the programmes will also be broadcast on the BBC News Channel and on BBC Parliament.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited April 2015
    Interesting chart of Scottish VI using subsamples and full national polls. It's then used to make some very dubious predictions (check out Orkney!) but never mind about that.

    http://corecursion.blogspot.co.uk/2015/04/latest-scottish-poll-of-polls-for-uk_17.html
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,013
    Danny565 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Stuart Hosie only has a 4% majority to defend in Dundee East.

    Could be tough.

    I didn't know you did sarcasm. :p
    I'd give the Tories more chance of taking Perth & North Perthshire than Labour holding Dundee West mind.

    Both are around a hundred to a thousand to one but Con gain Perth, North Perthshire more likely than Lab Hold Dundee West ;)
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,013

    Interesting chart of Scottish VI using subsamples and full national polls. It's then used to make some very dubious predictions (check out Orkney!) but never mind about that.

    http://corecursion.blogspot.co.uk/2015/04/latest-scottish-poll-of-polls-for-uk_17.html

    Edinburgh South could actually go Conservative. I mean I'm not backing it but that panda saver is nice to have there ;)
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,018

    Interesting chart of Scottish VI using subsamples and full national polls. It's then used to make some very dubious predictions (check out Orkney!) but never mind about that.

    http://corecursion.blogspot.co.uk/2015/04/latest-scottish-poll-of-polls-for-uk_17.html

    Five seats... as many as Labour.. oh that'd be delicious :D
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    What a delight to come home to & I won at the dogs as well!!

    Election sign count in Romford:

    Labour 0
    UKIP 0
    SNP 0
    LD 0
    Conservative (Rosindell) 50+


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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    Interesting chart of Scottish VI using subsamples and full national polls. It's then used to make some very dubious predictions (check out Orkney!) but never mind about that.

    http://corecursion.blogspot.co.uk/2015/04/latest-scottish-poll-of-polls-for-uk_17.html

    Edinburgh South could actually go Conservative. I mean I'm not backing it but that panda saver is nice to have there ;)
    20/1 Tories in WAK makes some appeal :)
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Charles said:

    Pong said:

    trublue said:
    What I find a bit weird about this whole journalism 2.0 thingy is you get reporting like this;

    "Cameron said: “What we’re doing is taking the country’s leading expert on pensions, on savings, on financial education, Ros Altmann, and saying that if we’re re-elected, she’ll be at the heart of government.”

    When did Cameron say this? To whom?

    I can't remember him saying it. Has he even said it yet?
    The lowest common denominator assumed by the newspapers is that we're all too thick to understand that words can be written down as well as spoken, so if he didn't speak the words it didn't happen, and thus they have to write that he spoke the words, even if he didn't even write them.
    No: they're just retyping the press release. "The CEO said" is standard wording for providing a quote
    I know that, but as an adult I'd prefer them to use "The press release states..." rather than confect something that hasn't happened.
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    welshowl said:

    trublue said:
    Ros Altman as a minister for pensions. Yup wholly agree, 100%. Announcing before you're elected hmmm....
    Remember what a mess Tory got into in 2010 with all the stories of General Dannatt and Stuart Rose getting jobs.

    Given I would have thought 99% of the population won't have heard of this women, why even go there. It isn't like the Tories have snagged David Miliband to come and work for them.
    Ros is well respected and has been a champion for older people on a range of issues beyond pensions - this is a canny move and indeed endorsement for the blues which may help with a significant 'slice' of the grey electorate.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,013

    Pulpstar said:

    Interesting chart of Scottish VI using subsamples and full national polls. It's then used to make some very dubious predictions (check out Orkney!) but never mind about that.

    http://corecursion.blogspot.co.uk/2015/04/latest-scottish-poll-of-polls-for-uk_17.html

    Edinburgh South could actually go Conservative. I mean I'm not backing it but that panda saver is nice to have there ;)
    20/1 Tories in WAK makes some appeal :)
    84% book.

    Christ on a bike.
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    asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    RodCrosby said:

    If SNP/Lab was a runner, but Tories had the most seats, would Miliband pass the chance, or go for it?

    Risk either way. Labour could get annihilated in England in 2020...

    Of course he goes for it, because in his heart he thinks he'll be a fantastic PM that people will love. (obviously he's wrong, but I'm certain he really thinks that)

    The better question is what happens to the parties on the right during these five years, obviously Cameron is gone. The modernising wing the the tory party probably falls away. God only know what takes over, perhaps they retreat rightwards or have a deal with UKIP.

    Who knows what runs from the right in 2020, but it's doubtful to be a sensitive, moderate tory party like we have today
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,013
    @Tissue_Price Have you ever seen so many ricks, arbs and underrounds in all your days ?
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    Pulpstar said:

    Interesting chart of Scottish VI using subsamples and full national polls. It's then used to make some very dubious predictions (check out Orkney!) but never mind about that.

    http://corecursion.blogspot.co.uk/2015/04/latest-scottish-poll-of-polls-for-uk_17.html

    Edinburgh South could actually go Conservative. I mean I'm not backing it but that panda saver is nice to have there ;)
    20/1 Tories in WAK makes some appeal :)
    Could well be won by whoever in the 20%s...
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    @Tissue_Price Have you ever seen so many ricks, arbs and underrounds in all your days ?

    It's like pricing up Europa League groups day, only much more so.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,013
    Shadsy is predicting a huge rout.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,013
    edited April 2015
    RodCrosby said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Interesting chart of Scottish VI using subsamples and full national polls. It's then used to make some very dubious predictions (check out Orkney!) but never mind about that.

    http://corecursion.blogspot.co.uk/2015/04/latest-scottish-poll-of-polls-for-uk_17.html

    Edinburgh South could actually go Conservative. I mean I'm not backing it but that panda saver is nice to have there ;)
    20/1 Tories in WAK makes some appeal :)
    Could well be won by whoever in the 20%s...
    Nats piss up tbh.

    The unionist tactical wheel of fortune has not been a happy one in WAK.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,013
    And the Lib Dem "private polling" probably scuppered the Tories chances.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited April 2015
    The Tories should endorse tactical voting in Gordon, and that's it.

    Edit: obviously not literally an endorsement from on high, but word of mouth amongst activists etc.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Last 5 polls, combined Con and UKIP shares:

    Survation: 51%
    Populus: 47%
    YouGov: 48%
    Panelbase: 49%

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#2015

    Maybe Dave is regretting his gadflies comment now.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,013

    The Tories should endorse tactical voting in Gordon, and that's it.

    Edit: obviously not literally an endorsement from on high, but word of mouth amongst activists etc.

    Ni9cola would appreciate that :)
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    AndyJS said:

    Last 5 polls, combined Con and UKIP shares:

    Survation: 51%
    Populus: 47%
    YouGov: 48%
    Panelbase: 49%

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#2015

    Maybe Dave is regretting his gadflies comment now.

    He said that in 2006, when UKIP were polling about 3% or so on a good day (and a good chunk of those will have died since!). The current 14% chose to become gadflies :)
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    James Kelly delights in today's Scottish Ashcroft polls:

    http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/

    I wonder if AndyJS will be taking another leave of absence from this site, this time not voluntarily :D:D:D
    Are we supposed not to mention his name on here?
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited April 2015
    AndyJS said:

    Last 5 polls, combined Con and UKIP shares:

    Survation: 51%
    Populus: 47%
    YouGov: 48%
    Panelbase: 49%

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#2015

    Maybe Dave is regretting his gadflies comment now.

    AV landslide for the Right.

    In Australia, perhaps....
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,061
    Bliss was it in that day to be a constituency-market punter.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Interesting chart of Scottish VI using subsamples and full national polls. It's then used to make some very dubious predictions (check out Orkney!) but never mind about that.

    http://corecursion.blogspot.co.uk/2015/04/latest-scottish-poll-of-polls-for-uk_17.html

    The psychedelic colours give away the clue: the authors are on LSD.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,018
    AndyJS said:

    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    James Kelly delights in today's Scottish Ashcroft polls:

    http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/

    I wonder if AndyJS will be taking another leave of absence from this site, this time not voluntarily :D:D:D
    Are we supposed not to mention his name on here?
    I never know... but I can sense the ban hammer hovering over my head right now for even writing this reply............. :sweat:
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    RodCrosby said:

    AndyJS said:

    Last 5 polls, combined Con and UKIP shares:

    Survation: 51%
    Populus: 47%
    YouGov: 48%
    Panelbase: 49%

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#2015

    Maybe Dave is regretting his gadflies comment now.

    AV landslide for the Right.

    In Australia, perhaps....
    Except it's ignorant to suggest UKIP voters are Tories on holiday. Many UKIP voters in an AV election would vote UKIP 1, Labour 2. Some would even vote Lib Dem 2.

    To add 2 parties together is absurdly simplistic, if they were the same then they'd be the same party.
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    RodCrosby said:

    AndyJS said:

    Last 5 polls, combined Con and UKIP shares:

    Survation: 51%
    Populus: 47%
    YouGov: 48%
    Panelbase: 49%

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#2015

    Maybe Dave is regretting his gadflies comment now.

    AV landslide for the Right.

    In Australia, perhaps....
    Except it's ignorant to suggest UKIP voters are Tories on holiday. Many UKIP voters in an AV election would vote UKIP 1, Labour 2. Some would even vote Lib Dem 2.

    To add 2 parties together is absurdly simplistic, if they were the same then they'd be the same party.
    Up to a point, Lord Copper.
    There was some discussion today about there being three distinct strands of LibDem opinion, for example. Also, we see that real conservatives can exist in the same party as Ken Clarke.

    So it's not as "absurdly simplistic" as all that. The three big parties plus the LibDems are all coalitions with vast internal differences which are currently 'added together'.
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