@SunPolitics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour and Tories tied: CON 34%, LAB 34%, LD 9%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%
Go UKIP.
That cannot be right, only last night Purseybear assured us UKIP we're finished after the debate.
Farage's attack on the audience was really quite clever. It reinforces the message that the establishment are out to get them and the views they hold are not just wrong but disgusting.
Perhaps if you actually spoke to some Orange Bookers rather than pontificating, you'd find we have a healthy scepticism for EU institutions and want them reformed.
You'd also find we gave a strong belief in meritocracy and are anti - corporatist / producer monopolist.
Unfortunately you have not yet realised - even after 40 years -that it cannot be reformed in the way you want. It's whole purpose was ever closer union and that remains a core principle.
Quite rightly too. Ever closer union didn't mean ever increasing integration, it meant a union of people (in 1957) closer than the way Europe had acted in previous decades.
Simply not true. The founders of the EEC/EU were absolutely clear that the aim was a single unified federal Europe. It meant and still means exactly what it said which is why it is still part of the treaties which govern the EU today.
Forget the polls, Jimmy Anderson has just become England's greatest ever test wicket bowler. Does this achievement not deserve at least a single mention?
To overtake Botham is an impressive record. After a bright few years there's not been much to cheer about recently in English cricket; Anderson however has been consistently good for a long time though. He deserves this achievement.
Still well short of other countries leading wicket takers and considering the amount of test match cricket England play, not to decry Jimmy's achievement.
Australia - Warne 708 wkts, Sri Lanka Murali 800, WI Courtney Walsh (521 from memory) puts 384 into context.
The first two are the world's greatest ever spin bowlers, lolloping in off three paces.
Walsh, with Ambrose, was the last of that extended generation of Windies quicks the like of which we will never see again.
So kudos to Jimmy.
Walsh played until he was 38 - if Anderson lasted that long he would pass him
Indeed. And Warne's Test career was 15 years long, without much interruption. Jimmy's is currently 12 years, with a 2/3-year hiatus in the wilderness.
Yes well done Jimmy.
I had England to win at evens so obviously lost, but I would love to see the Windies be a force in the game once again, they have decent young players.
Muslims in Cardiff told not to vote as it violates the rights of Allah
The flyers stated: "Democracy is a system whereby man violates the right of Allah and decides what is permissible or impermissible for mankind, based solely on their whims and desires.
"Islam is the only real, working solution for the UK. It is a comprehensive system of governance where the laws of Allah are implemented and justice is observed."
Akmal Hanuk, a trustee at the Muslim Council of Wales, said: "It is not representing the views of the majority of Muslims. I think the majority of Muslims want to vote and will.
"From a Muslim Council of Wales perspective, we encourage them to vote and to have a say in the democratic system."
Perhaps if you actually spoke to some Orange Bookers rather than pontificating, you'd find we have a healthy scepticism for EU institutions and want them reformed.
You'd also find we gave a strong belief in meritocracy and are anti - corporatist / producer monopolist.
Unfortunately you have not yet realised - even after 40 years -that it cannot be reformed in the way you want. It's whole purpose was ever closer union and that remains a core principle.
Quite rightly too. Ever closer union didn't mean ever increasing integration, it meant a union of people (in 1957) closer than the way Europe had acted in previous decades.
Simply not true. The founders of the EEC/EU were absolutely clear that the aim was a single unified federal Europe. It meant and still means exactly what it said which is why it is still part of the treaties which govern the EU today.
Richard is right: part of the problem the EU has face has been a constantly increasing scope with no time to reflect on the way that the current stock of issues are being handled. If you look at new member states alone, the last 25 years has been hectic, without the new prerogatives.
But that does not mean that it cannot be adjusted in the way Cameron wants: to say that the EEC should have stuck to coal and steel back in 1960 is a different proposition to saying that its current scope should be adjusted. So it's not 40 years "lesson not learnt" as Richard suggests.
@BBCAllegra: Newsnight understands Nigel Farage to do 1/2 hr elex i/v same night as big 3 Leaders do Dimbleby 8-9:30pm, Apr 30th. NF in QuestionTime slot
@BBCAllegra: Farage on at 10:30 in Eng & Wales; Leanne Wood gets QT slot in Wales and Sturgeon gets it in Scotland. To reflect where they are strong.
Sounds fair enough to me. Farage will be happy.
Yes, but he'll rate about 1/4 of what the 3 main leaders get for their QT at 8pm.
The 3 main leaders at 8pm should get about 4m - ie similar to the BBC debate.
For the Evan Davis interviews at BBC1 7.30pm, Clegg got 2m and Cameron got 1.8m. Farage will do well to get 1m for an interview at 10.45pm.
Better than nothing, is what I'm getting at. Silly he's not in the main debate, but he now can make the best of a bad job.
@BBCAllegra: Newsnight understands Nigel Farage to do 1/2 hr elex i/v same night as big 3 Leaders do Dimbleby 8-9:30pm, Apr 30th. NF in QuestionTime slot
@BBCAllegra: Farage on at 10:30 in Eng & Wales; Leanne Wood gets QT slot in Wales and Sturgeon gets it in Scotland. To reflect where they are strong.
Sounds fair enough to me. Farage will be happy.
Yes, but he'll rate about 1/4 of what the 3 main leaders get for their QT at 8pm.
The 3 main leaders at 8pm should get about 4m - ie similar to the BBC debate.
For the Evan Davis interviews at BBC1 7.30pm, Clegg got 2m and Cameron got 1.8m. Farage will do well to get 1m for an interview at 10.45pm.
Farage has an Evan Davis too at 7.30 next Wednesday
Forget the polls, Jimmy Anderson has just become England's greatest ever test wicket bowler. Does this achievement not deserve at least a single mention?
To overtake Botham is an impressive record. After a bright few years there's not been much to cheer about recently in English cricket; Anderson however has been consistently good for a long time though. He deserves this achievement.
Still well short of other countries leading wicket takers and considering the amount of test match cricket England play, not to decry Jimmy's achievement.
Australia - Warne 708 wkts, Sri Lanka Murali 800, WI Courtney Walsh (521 from memory) puts 384 into context.
The first two are the world's greatest ever spin bowlers, lolloping in off three paces.
Walsh, with Ambrose, was the last of that extended generation of Windies quicks the like of which we will never see again.
So kudos to Jimmy.
Walsh played until he was 38 - if Anderson lasted that long he would pass him
Indeed. And Warne's Test career was 15 years long, without much interruption. Jimmy's is currently 12 years, with a 2/3-year hiatus in the wilderness.
Yes well done Jimmy.
I had England to win at evens so obviously lost, but I would love to see the Windies be a force in the game once again, they have decent young players.
Exactly my thoughts. The cricket world feels a bit two-dimensional without a strong Windies. The dwindling of cricket there is a great shame; the better their team gets, the more likely the fire will be rekindled in babylon...
Muslims in Cardiff told not to vote as it violates the rights of Allah
The flyers stated: "Democracy is a system whereby man violates the right of Allah and decides what is permissible or impermissible for mankind, based solely on their whims and desires.
"Islam is the only real, working solution for the UK. It is a comprehensive system of governance where the laws of Allah are implemented and justice is observed."
Akmal Hanuk, a trustee at the Muslim Council of Wales, said: "It is not representing the views of the majority of Muslims. I think the majority of Muslims want to vote and will.
"From a Muslim Council of Wales perspective, we encourage them to vote and to have a say in the democratic system."
@SunPolitics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour and Tories tied: CON 34%, LAB 34%, LD 9%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%
Go UKIP.
That cannot be right, only last night Purseybear assured us UKIP we're finished after the debate.
Farage's attack on the audience was really quite clever. It reinforces the message that the establishment are out to get them and the views they hold are not just wrong but disgusting.
So it wasn't the implosion of the UKIP campaign that some on here hysterically and joyfully predicted last night?
I know he's wrong about a lot of things, but I cannot help but feel Dan Hodges is right in his analysis that whatever outcome we get in a couple of weeks, the Union is pretty effed.
Any rumours about the midnight announcement on Twitter?
None I've seen. I have a sinking feeling the midnight announcement is going to be a huge disappointment for all and change nothing.
Sounds pretty on par for this GE so far - the public, beyond Scotland, are not playing ball and are stubbornly sticking to the preference for both the big two about equally, no matter what.
I know the LDs are trying to say they are neither left or right leaning, in effect, but is that possibly true? I find it hard to square with my mental picture of them.
During the 2010 to 2015 period, almost all the 3s have left, and so have a lot of 2s. What remains is a lot of Orange Bookers.
Very good summary. I'd say the key differences on (1) are on europe and immigration.
I'm quite liberal on law and order - I believe in drugs liberalisation and prison reform, whilst being anti-capital punishment, for example - but am absolutely not a LD.
I don't know the future of the post-2015 Lib Dems. I'd be worried that it would be dragged left again.
I've been very happy with the current coalition, although I don't know whether that (as a Tory) is because of the Lib Dems' influence or just whether the government would have been more centrist than its manifesto anyway.
Cameron being Cameron would have done what he needed to do in terms of arbitration to keep the ship on the road.
Had Cameron got a Tory majority of, say, 30, he would have needed to tone down his social policy (gay marriage might have been shelved, or put on the backburner, for instance) and some of the immigration rules that the Lib Dems vetoed (e.g. bonds for foreign students) might have been put in place. A stronger EU renegotiation strategy would also have been required - incl. CAP and social/employment policy demands. Profit making free schools might have been trialled. No AV referendum. Fewer windfarms, more nuclear. The healthcare reforms might have been stronger. The number of MPs would have been cut, and the boundary changes passed. IHT cut would have been implemented, and the free vote on fox hunting held.
However, most of the rest of the 2010 GE Tory manifesto got through anyway. 0.7% GDP target for aid, and defence cuts, would have happened anyway under a Tory majority.
The trouble for the LDs is (from their point of view) that no-one knows where they've "toned down" the Tory reforms, because it's not clear to most people what would have happened otherwise. But it is clear where they have not - e.g. tuition fees. So it just looks like they've gone along with most of it as Tory voting lobby fodder. Which isn't fair, of course. But that's politics. Apart from pursuing their pet interests of voting reform, and House of Lords reform, there's not much obvious "yellow". So they're left with the pupil premium and the Income Tax threshold.
Anyway, that's why Cameron wants a 2nd Tory-LD coalition. He prefers to be seen as a moderator and a centrist, and not a right-wing ideologue. Even though he's supposed to be Tory leader, and it's his manifesto.
One benefit of the SNP implosion is that Labour-Tory VIs in Scotland are much closer - so it is easier to estimate the effect in England.
(Survation had the Conservatives ahead of Labour in Scotland and Wales!) (caveats apply)
I think the imponderables are all in the Conservative favour. Cameron is still seen as the best potential prime minister, the Tory vote is much firmer than either of the two other main parties (Labour and UKIP) and more people want a Tory led government than a Labour led one. The main concern is the LD are really willing to vote tactically.
@SunPolitics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour and Tories tied: CON 34%, LAB 34%, LD 9%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%
Go UKIP.
That cannot be right, only last night Purseybear assured us UKIP we're finished after the debate.
Farage's attack on the audience was really quite clever. It reinforces the message that the establishment are out to get them and the views they hold are not just wrong but disgusting.
So it wasn't the implosion of the UKIP campaign that some on here hysterically and joyfully predicted last night?
I would imagine those same people said the same when he came out against migrants with HIV. The polling showed larger support for his statement than against. Interestingly a report I was reading earlier from Oxford University cited HIV treatment as one of the costs associated with immigration.
Farage is no amateur when it comes to television appearances. He has faced countless hostile QT audiences so last night's outburst was more than likely planned.
Farage polled very well on the individual questions from last night. Whilst the audience may have been baying for blood, the viewers at home certainly lapped it up.
What I find a bit weird about this whole journalism 2.0 thingy is you get reporting like this;
"Cameron said: “What we’re doing is taking the country’s leading expert on pensions, on savings, on financial education, Ros Altmann, and saying that if we’re re-elected, she’ll be at the heart of government.”
When did Cameron say this? To whom?
I can't remember him saying it. Has he even said it yet?
I should also add that had Cameron realised just how radical and far-reaching Gove's education, Lansley's health and Duncan-Smith's welfare reforms were - how they'd be received, perceived and misrepresented, and the strength of opposition to them - he'd probably have stopped or diluted them much earlier.
It's only his ignorance of what they were up to, what the reforms really meant, and the sheer speed at which his fellow cabinet ministers moved that allowed them to pass through so unhindered. As a strong backer of those reforms (which to me were, and are, sensible common-sense reforms to alter behaviours and incentives to drive real improvements in results in the public sector) I will be ever grateful for the drive and impetus of his fellow ministers in the 2010-2012 period. It all ended with the "Omnishambles" budget, in reality.
Cameron was, and is, about things like the Big Society, citizen service, sunny optimism, and community initiatives. Friendly, hearthy, hearty natural shire Conservatism - that emphasises social cohesion, family and tradition - and where you don't really want to think about, or change anything, too much. And definitely not upset anyone.
@BBCAllegra: It's Friday night, it's late but my inbox still exploding with Lab, SNP + Tory views on how they banjax each other in event of Lab-SNP pact
Forget the polls, Jimmy Anderson has just become England's greatest ever test wicket bowler. Does this achievement not deserve at least a single mention?
To overtake Botham is an impressive record. After a bright few years there's not been much to cheer about recently in English cricket; Anderson however has been consistently good for a long time though. He deserves this achievement.
Still well short of other countries leading wicket takers and considering the amount of test match cricket England play, not to decry Jimmy's achievement.
Australia - Warne 708 wkts, Sri Lanka Murali 800, WI Courtney Walsh (521 from memory) puts 384 into context.
The first two are the world's greatest ever spin bowlers, lolloping in off three paces.
Walsh, with Ambrose, was the last of that extended generation of Windies quicks the like of which we will never see again.
So kudos to Jimmy.
Most important of all, Anderson isn't finished yet. Let's see how many wickets he has when he retires, and then we can put him into context.
Hijacked? by putting forward her parties plans. The man's a dick.
The Union was on borrowed time the moment Devolution was granted. The MSM running around now and in the past few months as if the Union's end is some big surprise. "What do we do about it?" they cry.
Nothing. We embrace a Union of the Crowns, and finally have an English parliament.
That's nuts. She's one (very youthful) fanatic of a lady.
Bloody hell.. 40% majority... just gone!
To put these swings into English context, Bootle, East Ham for Labour, Newbury and Maidenhead for the Tories would be in danger !
Maidenhead was part of Charlie Kennedy's decapitation strategy. I'm sure Theresa will find his current predicament amusing. The likely loss of his seat, I mean.
@SunPolitics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour and Tories tied: CON 34%, LAB 34%, LD 9%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%
Go UKIP.
That cannot be right, only last night Purseybear assured us UKIP we're finished after the debate.
Farage's attack on the audience was really quite clever. It reinforces the message that the establishment are out to get them and the views they hold are not just wrong but disgusting.
So it wasn't the implosion of the UKIP campaign that some on here hysterically and joyfully predicted last night?
I would imagine those same people said the same when he came out against migrants with HIV. The polling showed larger support for his statement than against. Interestingly a report I was reading earlier from Oxford University cited HIV treatment as one of the costs associated with immigration.
Farage is no amateur when it comes to television appearances. He has faced countless hostile QT audiences so last night's outburst was more than likely planned.
Farage polled very well on the individual questions from last night. Whilst the audience may have been baying for blood, the viewers at home certainly lapped it up.
It usually takes the best part of a week or two for specific events to show in the polls. Farages tantrum last night will probably not make much difference apart from keeping kippers on the slide.
Con 290 Lab 269 Lib Dem 14 UKIP 1 Green 1 SNP 54 PC 3 NI 18
Resulting in a minority but workable Labour led administration
That's a Tory English majority.
I don't care what the SNP suggest, that isn't workable for five years.
I think you'll find it is; there's only 1 class of MP, regional majorities don't matter.
Scotland and Wales elected Labour majorities for decades and had Tory government; they just had to suck it up and deal with it. No different now except the shoe is on other foot.
Con 290 Lab 269 Lib Dem 14 UKIP 1 Green 1 SNP 54 PC 3 NI 18
Resulting in a minority but workable Labour led administration
That is pretty close to my NoJam entry.
But if an English party or parties brought forward an EVFEL bill then it might get widespread support. There would not be enough SLAB to oppose it and the English Labs may quite like to neuter Nicola.
Ros Altman as a minister for pensions. Yup wholly agree, 100%. Announcing before you're elected hmmm....
Remember what a mess Tory got into in 2010 with all the stories of General Dannatt and Stuart Rose getting jobs.
Given I would have thought 99% of the population won't have heard of this women, why even go there. It isn't like the Tories have snagged David Miliband to come and work for them.
What I find a bit weird about this whole journalism 2.0 thingy is you get reporting like this;
"Cameron said: “What we’re doing is taking the country’s leading expert on pensions, on savings, on financial education, Ros Altmann, and saying that if we’re re-elected, she’ll be at the heart of government.”
When did Cameron say this? To whom?
I can't remember him saying it. Has he even said it yet?
Will Scobie Campaign (@willscobie) 14/04/2015 11:20 Come to Ramsgate, Kent on Sunday (19th) with Owen Jones + help defeat Nigel Farage in 2015. facebook.com/events/1092250… pic.twitter.com/eY2AxgG7Lj
I should also add that had Cameron realised just how radical and far-reaching Gove's education, Lansley's health and Duncan-Smith's welfare reforms were - how they'd be received, perceived and misrepresented, and the strength of opposition to them - he'd probably have stopped or diluted them much earlier.
It's only his ignorance of what they were up to, what the reforms really meant, and the sheer speed at which his fellow cabinet ministers moved that allowed them to pass through so unhindered. As a strong backer of those reforms (which to me were, and are, sensible common-sense reforms to alter behaviours and incentives to drive real improvements in results in the public sector) I will be ever grateful for the drive and impetus of his fellow ministers in the 2010-2012 period. It all ended with the "Omnishambles" budget, in reality.
Cameron was, and is, about things like the Big Society, citizen service, sunny optimism, and community initiatives. Friendly, hearthy, hearty natural shire Conservatism - that emphasises social cohesion, family and tradition - and where you don't really want to think about, or change anything, too much. And definitely not upset anyone.
I don't for one second think Cameron is as thick or ignorant as you make out. He knew what was going on.
Reforms are always best passed at the start of the Parliament not at the end. As Macbeth said (Act 1, Scene 7) "if it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well it were done quickly".
What I find a bit weird about this whole journalism 2.0 thingy is you get reporting like this;
"Cameron said: “What we’re doing is taking the country’s leading expert on pensions, on savings, on financial education, Ros Altmann, and saying that if we’re re-elected, she’ll be at the heart of government.”
When did Cameron say this? To whom?
I can't remember him saying it. Has he even said it yet?
The lowest common denominator assumed by the newspapers is that we're all too thick to understand that words can be written down as well as spoken, so if he didn't speak the words it didn't happen, and thus they have to write that he spoke the words, even if he didn't even write them.
Con 290 Lab 269 Lib Dem 14 UKIP 1 Green 1 SNP 54 PC 3 NI 18
Resulting in a minority but workable Labour led administration
That's a Tory English majority.
I don't care what the SNP suggest, that isn't workable for five years.
I think you'll find it is; there's only 1 class of MP, regional majorities don't matter.
Scotland and Wales elected Labour majorities for decades and had Tory government; they just had to suck it up and deal with it. No different now except the shoe is on other foot.
Scotland and Wales had a Tory government because we were a single country back then and the laws applied to the entire country. We didn't have an English Parliament setting English laws - then English separatists setting Scottish and Welsh laws that didn't apply to England.
The West Lothian Question hasn't been addressed because it hasn't needed to. If you have five years of the SNP+Labour setting English-only laws that differ from the SNP's Scottish laws ... against an English majority rejecting it, that will be unsustainable.
Otherwise come 2020 Labour will find an English bloodbath as bad as 2015 Scotland.
"Cameron said: “What we’re doing is taking the country’s leading expert on pensions, on savings, on financial education, Ros Altmann, and saying that if we’re re-elected, she’ll be at the heart of government.”
Steve Webb got to be a bit pissed....obviously he is a Lib Dem, but I would have thought he had earned the right to be called the country's leading expert on pensions given his record in government.
Will Scobie Campaign (@willscobie) 14/04/2015 11:20 Come to Ramsgate, Kent on Sunday (19th) with Owen Jones + help defeat Nigel Farage in 2015. facebook.com/events/1092250… pic.twitter.com/eY2AxgG7Lj
I do wonder about Owen Jones and his complete lack of self awareness. One thing that won't go down well in South Thanet is a pontificating Guardian journalist with a largely negative message. It may even turn people off Will Scobie. Ohio 2004 anyone?!
What I find a bit weird about this whole journalism 2.0 thingy is you get reporting like this;
"Cameron said: “What we’re doing is taking the country’s leading expert on pensions, on savings, on financial education, Ros Altmann, and saying that if we’re re-elected, she’ll be at the heart of government.”
When did Cameron say this? To whom?
I can't remember him saying it. Has he even said it yet?
The lowest common denominator assumed by the newspapers is that we're all too thick to understand that words can be written down as well as spoken, so if he didn't speak the words it didn't happen, and thus they have to write that he spoke the words, even if he didn't even write them.
No: they're just retyping the press release. "The CEO said" is standard wording for providing a quote
Comments
I had England to win at evens so obviously lost, but I would love to see the Windies be a force in the game once again, they have decent young players.
The flyers stated: "Democracy is a system whereby man violates the right of Allah and decides what is permissible or impermissible for mankind, based solely on their whims and desires.
"Islam is the only real, working solution for the UK. It is a comprehensive system of governance where the laws of Allah are implemented and justice is observed."
Akmal Hanuk, a trustee at the Muslim Council of Wales, said: "It is not representing the views of the majority of Muslims. I think the majority of Muslims want to vote and will.
"From a Muslim Council of Wales perspective, we encourage them to vote and to have a say in the democratic system."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-south-east-wales-32352674
But that does not mean that it cannot be adjusted in the way Cameron wants: to say that the EEC should have stuck to coal and steel back in 1960 is a different proposition to saying that its current scope should be adjusted. So it's not 40 years "lesson not learnt" as Richard suggests.
The local election results look quite exciting though! :-)
http://www.wyreforestdc.gov.uk/the-council/elections-and-voting/election-results.aspx#District2014
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11544826/Nicola-Sturgeon-has-hijacked-this-election.-Where-she-takes-it-is-anyones-guess.html Sounds pretty on par for this GE so far - the public, beyond Scotland, are not playing ball and are stubbornly sticking to the preference for both the big two about equally, no matter what.
Had Cameron got a Tory majority of, say, 30, he would have needed to tone down his social policy (gay marriage might have been shelved, or put on the backburner, for instance) and some of the immigration rules that the Lib Dems vetoed (e.g. bonds for foreign students) might have been put in place. A stronger EU renegotiation strategy would also have been required - incl. CAP and social/employment policy demands. Profit making free schools might have been trialled. No AV referendum. Fewer windfarms, more nuclear. The healthcare reforms might have been stronger. The number of MPs would have been cut, and the boundary changes passed. IHT cut would have been implemented, and the free vote on fox hunting held.
However, most of the rest of the 2010 GE Tory manifesto got through anyway. 0.7% GDP target for aid, and defence cuts, would have happened anyway under a Tory majority.
The trouble for the LDs is (from their point of view) that no-one knows where they've "toned down" the Tory reforms, because it's not clear to most people what would have happened otherwise. But it is clear where they have not - e.g. tuition fees. So it just looks like they've gone along with most of it as Tory voting lobby fodder. Which isn't fair, of course. But that's politics. Apart from pursuing their pet interests of voting reform, and House of Lords reform, there's not much obvious "yellow". So they're left with the pupil premium and the Income Tax threshold.
Anyway, that's why Cameron wants a 2nd Tory-LD coalition. He prefers to be seen as a moderator and a centrist, and not a right-wing ideologue. Even though he's supposed to be Tory leader, and it's his manifesto.
Survation = clear outlier!
SNP 50%
Lab 39%
Con 6%
LD 1%
Oth 4%
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/04/paisley-renfrewshire-south-2/
If he did rule it out, it would kill labour in Scotland, except Labour can't get any more dead than they already are
As long as he doesn't rule it out, he could be bleeding votes in England, which could prevent him getting enough seats to make a deal with Nicola...
Ho hum
(Survation had the Conservatives ahead of Labour in Scotland and Wales!) (caveats apply)
I think the imponderables are all in the Conservative favour. Cameron is still seen as the best potential prime minister, the Tory vote is much firmer than either of the two other main parties (Labour and UKIP) and more people want a Tory led government than a Labour led one. The main concern is the LD are really willing to vote tactically.
Farage is no amateur when it comes to television appearances. He has faced countless hostile QT audiences so last night's outburst was more than likely planned.
Farage polled very well on the individual questions from last night. Whilst the audience may have been baying for blood, the viewers at home certainly lapped it up.
Night all.
But that's probably got a fair bit to do with my book
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/17/ros-altmann-to-become-tory-peer-conservatives-win-election
Game changer!!!
"You can have a total of nothing"
"Are you sure????"
"OK, £2"
"Cameron said: “What we’re doing is taking the country’s leading expert on pensions, on savings, on financial education, Ros Altmann, and saying that if we’re re-elected, she’ll be at the heart of government.”
When did Cameron say this? To whom?
I can't remember him saying it. Has he even said it yet?
Night.
It's only his ignorance of what they were up to, what the reforms really meant, and the sheer speed at which his fellow cabinet ministers moved that allowed them to pass through so unhindered. As a strong backer of those reforms (which to me were, and are, sensible common-sense reforms to alter behaviours and incentives to drive real improvements in results in the public sector) I will be ever grateful for the drive and impetus of his fellow ministers in the 2010-2012 period. It all ended with the "Omnishambles" budget, in reality.
Cameron was, and is, about things like the Big Society, citizen service, sunny optimism, and community initiatives. Friendly, hearthy, hearty natural shire Conservatism - that emphasises social cohesion, family and tradition - and where you don't really want to think about, or change anything, too much. And definitely not upset anyone.
He means well but I can see why he has errm... opposition.
Hijacked? by putting forward her parties plans.
The man's a dick.
I'm off to bed too.
Goodnight.
Nothing. We embrace a Union of the Crowns, and finally have an English parliament.
5% gap:
Blackpool North
Nuneaton
Stockton South
Wirral West
4% gap:
Croydon Central
Dudley South
Dumfries
Gloucester
Harrow East
Pendle
3% gap:
Boston
Coatbridge
Crewe
St Ives
Cleethorpes
2% gap:
Cleethorpes
Cornwall North
Dumfriesshire
Finchley
Halesowen
Milton Keynes South
Sheffield Hallam
1% gap:
Berwickshire
Castle Point
Colne Valley
High Peak
Norwich North
Torbay
Tie:
Pudsey
Rossendale
South Ribble
Swindon South
There are only 27 seats with majorities bigger than 40%!
Na'haielien an Nar may have a fair sized majority after the election.
Lol nice try. Call it the Western Isles.
Labour can finish on about the same seats or even 20 less than now and still take power depending on how the Lib Dem vote holds up.
323 is all that matters
Con 290
Lab 269
Lib Dem 14
UKIP 1
Green 1
SNP 54
PC 3
NI 18
Resulting in a minority but workable Labour led administration
I don't care what the SNP suggest, that isn't workable for five years.
Scotland and Wales elected Labour majorities for decades and had Tory government; they just had to suck it up and deal with it. No different now except the shoe is on other foot.
Only popular council leader Wes Streeting can bring hope to Ilford North
But if an English party or parties brought forward an EVFEL bill then it might get widespread support. There would not be enough SLAB to oppose it and the English Labs may quite like to neuter Nicola.
Given I would have thought 99% of the population won't have heard of this women, why even go there. It isn't like the Tories have snagged David Miliband to come and work for them.
The yellows are relying on Ashcroft QUestion 2 being more accurate than question 1 in a huge, huge way.
If QUestion 1 is holds a fair bit of sway, they are toast in alot of places.
Will Scobie Campaign (@willscobie)
14/04/2015 11:20
Come to Ramsgate, Kent on Sunday (19th) with Owen Jones + help defeat Nigel Farage in 2015.
facebook.com/events/1092250… pic.twitter.com/eY2AxgG7Lj
Reforms are always best passed at the start of the Parliament not at the end. As Macbeth said (Act 1, Scene 7) "if it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well it were done quickly".
'Interestingly a report I was reading earlier from Oxford University cited HIV treatment as one of the costs associated with immigration.'
Also TB, with London having the highest rates in Western Europe.
Could be tough.
Risk either way. Labour could get annihilated in England in 2020...
The West Lothian Question hasn't been addressed because it hasn't needed to. If you have five years of the SNP+Labour setting English-only laws that differ from the SNP's Scottish laws ... against an English majority rejecting it, that will be unsustainable.
Otherwise come 2020 Labour will find an English bloodbath as bad as 2015 Scotland.
Steve Webb got to be a bit pissed....obviously he is a Lib Dem, but I would have thought he had earned the right to be called the country's leading expert on pensions given his record in government.
http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/
He wants desperately to be PM... I doubt the possible destruction of the Labour party in 2020 will stop him.
Farron will be coming along to take a tonne of votes off his left flank in England anyway.
Worst-case for Labour in the long run is a Tory English majority, SNP Scottish landslide and Labour well behind the Tories but propped up by the SNP.