Why are the establishment political parties so proud of the NHS's overreliance on foreign workers to prop it up. The biggest scandal is why they have failed to train sufficient doctors and nurses for so long.
The BMC artificially suppressed the numbers to keep their price and influence up.
Not true. The numbers trained are decided by the Department of Health. The BMA has always supported medical immigration, which tends to dilute the influence and income of UK trained Doctors.
Why would the BMA want that?
I do not think that they do. My phrasing was not good. Tabman suggested that the BMA restricted the numbers trained. If that were their motivation they would oppose medical immigration, but they have consistently opposed any cap on this.
The BMA is a useless spineless organisation, but restricting the number of doctors is not their doing.
My friend who now lives there is reporting masses of Yellow Peril signs about. He reckons they may win.
Just like the anecdotes we heard in 2005 and 2010...
Apparently Oxford West would have been LD in 1983, 1987 and 1992 if numbers of posters were the yardstick.
Oxford West has changed it's boundaries to include lots of despicable Tories from Abingdon. Where I lived in Oxford North it was yellow peril all the way. Why anyone (unless they were a Tory) would ever want to venture into Abingdon, god only knows. Full of Tories and depressingly white.
Lib Dems have regularly won seats on the Vale of White Horse council in Abingdon. The following makes clear that Nicola Blackwood was successful in minimising the deficit in the north Oxford wards, and just about carried the day with the rural wards outside of Oxford and Abingdon in the constituency:
One thing to be careful with that site is it doesn't take account of actual candidates. e.g. it has the Greens getting 4.5% in Hertsmere but they're not standing there
Huh, predicts the LDs to only lose Redcar by about 7 pts. A lot better than I'd guess.
I am not saying those Lib Dems would have voted Con. I am saying that the Tories would have come across as less of a threat and frankly not off the fcking chain. It would have only taken a 30 extra seats for Blair to have lost his majority but Howard manage to screw it good and proper.
I am a big fan of UK comics (the type you read not the joke tellers). In particular 2000AD which I have collected for the last 37 years.
Flicking through this month's Judge Dredd Megazine I was impressed to come across a full page painting of Dredd's face with the following words:
"He says Democracy's not for the people. You believe everything the man tells you? Exercise your right to vote 7 May 2015"
I am immensely heartened by this. It is great that the people at 2000AD are taking it upon themselves to try and reach out in a novel fashion to a section of society that may not have the greatest turnout and elections and try to persuade them to vote.
My friend who now lives there is reporting masses of Yellow Peril signs about. He reckons they may win.
Just like the anecdotes we heard in 2005 and 2010...
Apparently Oxford West would have been LD in 1983, 1987 and 1992 if numbers of posters were the yardstick.
Oxford West has changed it's boundaries to include lots of despicable Tories from Abingdon. Where I lived in Oxford North it was yellow peril all the way. Why anyone (unless they were a Tory) would ever want to venture into Abingdon, god only knows. Full of Tories and depressingly white.
Lib Dems have regularly won seats on the Vale of White Horse council in Abingdon. The following makes clear that Nicola Blackwood was successful in minimising the deficit in the north Oxford wards, and just about carried the day with the rural wards outside of Oxford and Abingdon in the constituency:
One thing to be careful with that site is it doesn't take account of actual candidates. e.g. it has the Greens getting 4.5% in Hertsmere but they're not standing there
Carswell looked very uncomfortable when Piers Morgan was berating him over Farage's HIV comments...
Those same comments that would not have been unpopular in Clacton and similar constituencies.
Apparently Carswell's father is an eminent Dr in the field of HIV.
Must have made for some interesting dinner conversations I imagine...
Yes, he was one of the first to diagnose HIV. Doesn't automatically mean he would disagree with Farage's views, but I take your point.
There is a reason that Philipinos are now one of the fastest growing immigrant populations. Excellent well trained nurses they are too. So are the Portuguese though I am less convinced by the Spanish trained.
Quite give me a Filipino nurse over a South African one any day.
I am not saying those Lib Dems would have voted Con. I am saying that the Tories would have come across as less of a threat and frankly not off the fcking chain. It would have only taken a 30 extra seats for Blair to have lost his majority but Howard manage to screw it good and proper.
The 2005 Tories were right about immigration, just five years ahead of public opinion.
I am not saying those Lib Dems would have voted Con. I am saying that the Tories would have come across as less of a threat and frankly not off the fcking chain. It would have only taken a 30 extra seats for Blair to have lost his majority but Howard manage to screw it good and proper.
Just being Howard was all the screwing up it took lets be honest here.
There is a reason that Philipinos are now one of the fastest growing immigrant populations. Excellent well trained nurses they are too. So are the Portuguese though I am less convinced by the Spanish trained.
Quite give me a Filipino nurse over a South African one any day.
Our local Spanish nurses seem OK. My mum in law thinks Spanish nurses in tenerife are terrible. Could they have come from south America
Julian Deverell (@JulianDeverell) April 16 Ukip manifesto: The 11 weirdly sensible money policies other parties should look at - Mirror Online mirror.co.uk/money/ukip-man…
Nicola Sturgeon showed a bit of class by being the only one to shake hands with Farage.
She was stood next to him.
There was a 3 way girly hug before she went over to Nigel.
Sturgeon is a far more talented politician than Salmond. He has been eclipsed. She also has a lot more experience of public debates over the last year or so than any of the others. She is match fit while they are rusty.
PB heads' average predictions at Nojam.com: CON 289, LAB 271, SNP 42, LD 26, UKIP 3, GRN 1, OTH 18. You're Cameron. What would you do? It's almost a no-brainer: make concessions to the SNP. Sure, you could try for a deal with LD and some UU's, but that wouldn't be stable and why would the LD go for it? If the UU were to hold the government to ransom and bring it down, the LD wouldn't look that distinguishable from CON. Here are the alternatives if those are the numbers: 1) CON-SNP, 2) RAINBOW.
QT in two weeks time is each leader in turn. From memory that's the same as in 2005 isn't it?
Do we know which order they'll speak in or will it be decided by lots? Do we know how long each leaders segment is?
Do we know if the audience will be balanced ?
Yes we do. It's on the BBC so it won't be.
What do you make of the new allegations on the tragedy?
Terrible nigel,but I do believe it was a tragedy that was just waiting to happen.
On the allegations of Heginbotham’s Businesses,that's different matter.
I don't even want to contemplate that it was anything other than a terrible tragedy, i believe the Kings Cross fire started a similar way.
I've been in that old stand (built I think in 1908) and it was a fire death trap,wooden floors with space below where rubbish gathered and tar roofing.
No worries, I didn't realise how old that article was!
There was also the sketch in the Two Ronnies where Ronnie Corbett tried to escape a dystopian feminist England into Wales via a checkpoint ("manned" by Diana Dors!) where he put on an Indian accent instead of a Welsh one!
Nicola Sturgeon showed a bit of class by being the only one to shake hands with Farage.
Paul Dockerty (@pdockerty) April 16 The reason to vote #UKIP in one simple image. pic.twitter.com/EinGtYQ5Jn
Tweeted by a self-proclaimed proud descendant of the Donegal High Kings. This Donegal place is presumably part of the UK that the immigrants are going to be kept out of.
The Telegraph is surprisingly good value on the debates with all their columnists giving it to Sturgeon albeit through gritted teeth ! The one single exception is Iain Martin who just comes across as a sour and very silly man.
IOS/KentRising/RealAle 2005 was all about the Iraq War, less so immigration and the high LD vote and Clarke is the only Tory who could have squeezed those LD voters in enough key marginals to produce a hung parliament
Excluding undecideds, Miliband won that "best PM" question 44-42%. But if the panel's VI had matched May2015's poll-of-polls, Cameron would have won 46-44%.
The Telegraph is surprisingly good value on the debates with all their columnists giving it to Sturgeon albeit through gritted teeth ! The one single exception is Iain Martin who just comes across as a sour and very silly man.
I thought the right-wing press would give it to Sturgeon; that suits Cameron best.
PB heads' average predictions at Nojam.com: CON 289, LAB 271, SNP 42, LD 26, UKIP 3, GRN 1, OTH 18. You're Cameron. What would you do? It's almost a no-brainer: make concessions to the SNP. Sure, you could try for a deal with LD and some UU's, but that wouldn't be stable and why would the LD go for it? If the UU were to hold the government to ransom and bring it down, the LD wouldn't look that distinguishable from CON. Here are the alternatives if those are the numbers: 1) CON-SNP, 2) RAINBOW.
The SNP will not do a deal with the Conservatives.
PB heads' average predictions at Nojam.com: CON 289, LAB 271, SNP 42, LD 26, UKIP 3, GRN 1, OTH 18. You're Cameron. What would you do? It's almost a no-brainer: make concessions to the SNP. Sure, you could try for a deal with LD and some UU's, but that wouldn't be stable and why would the LD go for it? If the UU were to hold the government to ransom and bring it down, the LD wouldn't look that distinguishable from CON. Here are the alternatives if those are the numbers: 1) CON-SNP, 2) RAINBOW.
The SNP will not do a deal with the Conservatives.
Nicola Sturgeon showed a bit of class by being the only one to shake hands with Farage.
Paul Dockerty (@pdockerty) April 16 The reason to vote #UKIP in one simple image. pic.twitter.com/EinGtYQ5Jn
Tweeted by a self-proclaimed proud descendant of the Donegal High Kings. This Donegal place is presumably part of the UK that the immigrants are going to be kept out of.
Nicola Sturgeon showed a bit of class by being the only one to shake hands with Farage.
She was stood next to him.
There was a 3 way girly hug before she went over to Nigel.
Sturgeon is a far more talented politician than Salmond. He has been eclipsed. She also has a lot more experience of public debates over the last year or so than any of the others. She is match fit while they are rusty.
Yes I know that. A far left 3way girly hug. Sturgeon can pick what she says with ease, she will never have to justify it to a go wide electorate.
PB heads' average predictions at Nojam.com: CON 289, LAB 271, SNP 42, LD 26, UKIP 3, GRN 1, OTH 18. You're Cameron. What would you do? It's almost a no-brainer: make concessions to the SNP. Sure, you could try for a deal with LD and some UU's, but that wouldn't be stable and why would the LD go for it? If the UU were to hold the government to ransom and bring it down, the LD wouldn't look that distinguishable from CON. Here are the alternatives if those are the numbers: 1) CON-SNP, 2) RAINBOW.
The SNP will not do a deal with the Conservatives.
This is the biggest cert of the election.
I'll take 50/1 on a deal of some sort...
Seeing as I regard you as a more serious poster than some of the fantasists that have suggested such a deal, what deal would you envisage ?
PB heads' average predictions at Nojam.com: CON 289, LAB 271, SNP 42, LD 26, UKIP 3, GRN 1, OTH 18. You're Cameron. What would you do? It's almost a no-brainer: make concessions to the SNP. Sure, you could try for a deal with LD and some UU's, but that wouldn't be stable and why would the LD go for it? If the UU were to hold the government to ransom and bring it down, the LD wouldn't look that distinguishable from CON. Here are the alternatives if those are the numbers: 1) CON-SNP, 2) RAINBOW.
The SNP will not do a deal with the Conservatives.
This is the biggest cert of the election.
Exactly, it'd be suicide in 2016. Impossible to happen
Nicola Sturgeon showed a bit of class by being the only one to shake hands with Farage.
Paul Dockerty (@pdockerty) April 16 The reason to vote #UKIP in one simple image. pic.twitter.com/EinGtYQ5Jn
Tweeted by a self-proclaimed proud descendant of the Donegal High Kings. This Donegal place is presumably part of the UK that the immigrants are going to be kept out of.
I would prefer to have a Labour majority than a Labour government dependant on the SNP.
I tried that line on a Tory this afternoon, just for fun - shouldn't you vote Labour to ensure a healthy majority not dependent on the SNP? She laughed and said, "Nice try..."
I think if Dave is in power with the help say of the Lib Dems then the SNP will do deals whilst he is in Gov't if the Lib Dem majority combined majority is wafer thin (EVEL for FFA perhaps ?) but not to get him in. Just can't see it - I'd be intrigued to know what deal is envisaged between CON and SNP. They won't abstain on Queen's speech. They'll vote against.
PB heads' average predictions at Nojam.com: CON 289, LAB 271, SNP 42, LD 26, UKIP 3, GRN 1, OTH 18. You're Cameron. What would you do? It's almost a no-brainer: make concessions to the SNP. Sure, you could try for a deal with LD and some UU's, but that wouldn't be stable and why would the LD go for it? If the UU were to hold the government to ransom and bring it down, the LD wouldn't look that distinguishable from CON. Here are the alternatives if those are the numbers: 1) CON-SNP, 2) RAINBOW.
The SNP will not do a deal with the Conservatives.
This is the biggest cert of the election.
I'll take 50/1 on a deal of some sort...
Seeing as I regard you as a more serious poster than some of the fantasists that have suggested such a deal, what deal would you envisage ?
I can't lay 50-1 I'm afraid
In a circumstance where EICIPM isn't really viable such as
Nicola Sturgeon showed a bit of class by being the only one to shake hands with Farage.
She was stood next to him.
There was a 3 way girly hug before she went over to Nigel.
Sturgeon is a far more talented politician than Salmond. He has been eclipsed. She also has a lot more experience of public debates over the last year or so than any of the others. She is match fit while they are rusty.
Yes I know that. A far left 3way girly hug. Sturgeon can pick what she says with ease, she will never have to justify it to a go wide electorate.
PB heads' average predictions at Nojam.com: CON 289, LAB 271, SNP 42, LD 26, UKIP 3, GRN 1, OTH 18. You're Cameron. What would you do? It's almost a no-brainer: make concessions to the SNP. Sure, you could try for a deal with LD and some UU's, but that wouldn't be stable and why would the LD go for it? If the UU were to hold the government to ransom and bring it down, the LD wouldn't look that distinguishable from CON. Here are the alternatives if those are the numbers: 1) CON-SNP, 2) RAINBOW.
The SNP will not do a deal with the Conservatives.
This is the biggest cert of the election.
I'll take 50/1 on a deal of some sort...
Seeing as I regard you as a more serious poster than some of the fantasists that have suggested such a deal, what deal would you envisage ?
I can't lay 50-1 I'm afraid
In a circumstance where EICIPM isn't really viable such as
Con 295 LD 20 Lab 255 SNP 55 Oth 7 NI 18
they might cut a deal: devolution for EV4EL
I forsee lower air passenger duty in Belfast in that scenario tbh
PB heads' average predictions at Nojam.com: CON 289, LAB 271, SNP 42, LD 26, UKIP 3, GRN 1, OTH 18. You're Cameron. What would you do? It's almost a no-brainer: make concessions to the SNP. Sure, you could try for a deal with LD and some UU's, but that wouldn't be stable and why would the LD go for it? If the UU were to hold the government to ransom and bring it down, the LD wouldn't look that distinguishable from CON. Here are the alternatives if those are the numbers: 1) CON-SNP, 2) RAINBOW.
The SNP will not do a deal with the Conservatives.
This is the biggest cert of the election.
Exactly, it'd be suicide in 2016. Impossible to happen
Depends what the Tories give them. Agree it's very unlikely but the arithmetic and the pursuit of power might conspire.
PB heads' average predictions at Nojam.com: CON 289, LAB 271, SNP 42, LD 26, UKIP 3, GRN 1, OTH 18. You're Cameron. What would you do? It's almost a no-brainer: make concessions to the SNP. Sure, you could try for a deal with LD and some UU's, but that wouldn't be stable and why would the LD go for it? If the UU were to hold the government to ransom and bring it down, the LD wouldn't look that distinguishable from CON. Here are the alternatives if those are the numbers: 1) CON-SNP, 2) RAINBOW.
The SNP will not do a deal with the Conservatives.
This is the biggest cert of the election.
I'll take 50/1 on a deal of some sort...
Seeing as I regard you as a more serious poster than some of the fantasists that have suggested such a deal, what deal would you envisage ?
I can't lay 50-1 I'm afraid
In a circumstance where EICIPM isn't really viable such as
Con 295 LD 20 Lab 255 SNP 55 Oth 7 NI 18
they might cut a deal: devolution for EV4EL
I forsee lower air passenger duty in Belfast in that scenario tbh
Neither DC nor EM want an effective majority of <10. Like last time, Con would arguably be better off scoring 320 than 330.
I must confess, despite reading the manifestos at an election for the first time (rather than scanning them last time) and watching every debate and event I can, I am pretty undecided still. I generally lean somewhere between Con and LD, but I see no point in voting LD when they are going to be slaughtered and then probably tack left anyway, and Con don't enthuse me. Lab haven't learned their lessons and assume if I don't vote directly for the Tories I must hate them with a fiery passion, which irritates me, UKIP I want to do well but don't match up with my views in too many areas, and the Greens are pretty crazy, but might get a vote for entertainment value to see how high the Green vote can get.
An electorally successful party somewhere between the Tories and LDs would not be totally amiss. Some LDs are there, but the party as a whole? And in the future?
I do not expect the LDs to win in my seat, indeed I expect the vote to go down, but I shall be voting LD anyway. I am an orange booker and while I do not agree with all LD policies, I do agree with more than any other party. I do quite like the Greens too...
Me too; we're an endangered species. However I view the Greens as watermelons.
Sure. The Greens have some bonkers ideas, but there are some good ones in there too. In particular tuition fees.
What's their view on tuition fees?
People who don't go to university should pay more tax to pay the fees of those that do.
Straight contest between David Cameron and Ed Miliband to be Prime Minister? David Cameron - 40% Ed Miliband - 45% Would not vote - 10% Don’t know - 5%
That is rather out of sync with normal polling. Be interesting to see the demographics of the people they polled, as they is way way out from what we normally see.
If it repeated elsewhere, obviously Cameron is absolutely and utterly screwed.
Of course, this is also the single most propitious moment to ask that question in the whole campaign and get EM as an answer.
Was the question asked last after that long list of was EdM best on X, Y, Z?
Straight contest between David Cameron and Ed Miliband to be Prime Minister? David Cameron - 40% Ed Miliband - 45% Would not vote - 10% Don’t know - 5%
That is rather out of sync with normal polling. Be interesting to see the demographics of the people they polled, as they is way way out from what we normally see.
If it repeated elsewhere, obviously Cameron is absolutely and utterly screwed.
Of course, this is also the single most propitious moment to ask that question in the whole campaign and get EM as an answer.
Was the question asked last after that long list of was EdM best on X, Y, Z?
If so, surely influenced by the foregoing?
Yes, it's garbage on lots of levels. Biased sample, priming questions, and of course the debate itself would have been a primer too.
Straight contest between David Cameron and Ed Miliband to be Prime Minister? David Cameron - 40% Ed Miliband - 45% Would not vote - 10% Don’t know - 5%
That is rather out of sync with normal polling. Be interesting to see the demographics of the people they polled, as they is way way out from what we normally see.
If it repeated elsewhere, obviously Cameron is absolutely and utterly screwed.
Of course, this is also the single most propitious moment to ask that question in the whole campaign and get EM as an answer.
Was the question asked last after that long list of was EdM best on X, Y, Z?
If so, surely influenced by the foregoing?
Yes, it's garbage on lots of levels. Biased sample, priming questions, and of course the debate itself would have been a primer too.
That looks to me like another Con-LD coalition with help from UKIP and N.Ireland.
What UKIP? I have 4 PC, Lucas, Galloway & Bercow
I've long forecast three UKIP - Carswell with ease, Reckless by a whisker and one from elsewhere, maybe Farage or Grimsby.
Was only joking before - I think Carswell will hold on. The others aren't looking so good, though the Northern targets are getting interesting. UKIP might fall between two stools.
In their latest forecast, Chris Hanretty's 2015 UK Parliamentary Election Forecast shows Labour to be within three seats of the Tories, where 277 plays 280. Slowly but inexorably the Tories are losing this election, no doubt about it. Sad to say they have been lacklustre and seemingly on the defensive throughout. There will probably more bad news for them from Stephen Fisher's updated GE projection in the morning.
Ed Miliband now odds on to be next PM on Betfair. Most seats still stuck in the 1.5s for Tories but surely due a big move out soon.
A very disappointing election campaign for the Conservatives so far. Nothing looks like working. Hung parliament for sure but I'm thinking it'll be Labour most seats even with the bloodbath for them in Scotland.
I would prefer to have a Labour majority than a Labour government dependant on the SNP.
I rather worryingly had a similar thought tonight. Which makes me wonder about the dangers of the current Conservative messaging imagine Ed in the pocket of Nicola trying to run the country.
The fact that the Labour party as the main Opposition have steadily lost the comfortable lead they enjoyed in the polls over the last few months would suggest that the Conservatives are far from losing this GE as the incumbent Government party with a clear edge on most popular Leader/PM and economy competence. This 1992 all over again.
In their latest forecast, Chris Hanretty's 2015 UK Parliamentary Election Forecast shows Labour to be within three seats of the Tories, where 277 plays 280. Slowly but inexorably the Tories are losing this election, no doubt about it. Sad to say they have been lacklustre and seemingly on the defensive throughout. There will probably more bad news for them from Stephen Fisher's updated GE projection in the morning.
A donation that big, and that late, in a GE campaign would suggest that the Express's Desmond thinks that there is going to be an imminent change of Leadership within Ukip following the GE result.
I would prefer to have a Labour majority than a Labour government dependant on the SNP.
I rather worryingly had a similar thought tonight. Which makes me wonder about the dangers of the current Conservative messaging imagine Ed in the pocket of Nicola trying to run the country.
Weird, isn't it? "My opponent may not quite get enough votes, which will be disastrous for Britain!" Maybe it's aimed at boosting the SNP in Scotland at Labour's expense?
Comments
Got off the phone to see Ed "won".. clickety click, £66 done in cold blood
The BMA is a useless spineless organisation, but restricting the number of doctors is not their doing.
Night all Huh, predicts the LDs to only lose Redcar by about 7 pts. A lot better than I'd guess.
But while FPTP does such a good job at keeping the Tories out, Labour will never ditch it.
I am not saying those Lib Dems would have voted Con. I am saying that the Tories would have come across as less of a threat and frankly not off the fcking chain. It would have only taken a 30 extra seats for Blair to have lost his majority but Howard manage to screw it good and proper.
Be Pure, Be Vigilant, Behave.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2648187
On the allegations of Heginbotham’s Businesses,that's different matter.
Tbf Farage failing to win with a 20% UKIP (exc. undecided) sample is pretty poor - he didn't dominate the Tories like I thought he would.
Tories broke:
Ed 19%
Nige 39%
Natalie 4%
Nicola 36% (!)
Leanne 2%
Its how you sell it. That manifesto Cameron wrote was a disaster.
Julian Deverell (@JulianDeverell)
April 16
Ukip manifesto: The 11 weirdly sensible money policies other parties should look at - Mirror Online mirror.co.uk/money/ukip-man…
Sturgeon is a far more talented politician than Salmond. He has been eclipsed. She also has a lot more experience of public debates over the last year or so than any of the others. She is match fit while they are rusty.
The problem tonight was that it was supposed to be a debate and not Question Time.
April 16
The reason to vote #UKIP in one simple image. pic.twitter.com/EinGtYQ5Jn
Then another on QT.
Like I said,a tragedy waiting to happen.
There was also the sketch in the Two Ronnies where Ronnie Corbett tried to escape a dystopian feminist England into Wales via a checkpoint ("manned" by Diana Dors!) where he put on an Indian accent instead of a Welsh one!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sSlekcIMbqM
The Green and the Welsh were just rude.
That is totally wrong. The Iraq war wasn't even a major issue according to the polls. It was the economy and immigration and the NHS and etc etc etc
This is the biggest cert of the election.
"Loser Ed to pinch PM's job"
I mean... REALLY.
No - go on guess
Don't you ever get bored of that one joke ?
A far left 3way girly hug.
Sturgeon can pick what she says with ease, she will never have to justify it to a go wide electorate.
I can't lay 50-1 I'm afraid
The sun becomes to the tories what the mirror is to the labour party.
Con 295
LD 20
Lab 255
SNP 55
Oth 7
NI 18
they might cut a deal: devolution for EV4EL
LD 20
Lab 255
SNP 55
Oth 7
NI 18
That'd be a corker of a result.
My company needs Sterling to weaken a touch
The assumption that Lab or Con would automatically vote the other side out at the first opportunity doesn't always hold true.
Labour let the Tories in
Labour would truly be dead and bruied in Scotland for the next 30 years.
If so, surely influenced by the foregoing?
But obviously behind closed doors etc etc abstentions not votes for blah blah.
Just not before
As I've said a few times I have Labour down as far more likely to let Dave stay in than the SNP.
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Post-Debate-Poll-Tables.pdf
Even then 6% of Labour voters went for Dave.
Not a poll to change strategy on quite frankly.
More the closing of the MORI gap that is the best news for Ed I reckon.
Only 6% behind Dave is pretty good for him.
But indeed this poll is garbage.
And it assumes the DUP would be up for signing up to spending cuts which would have a disproportionately large effect on the Northern Irish economy.
And even if by some miracle those two conditions are met, it relies on the Nadine Dorries's and Peter Bones not rebelling on a single vote.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/uk-polling-report-average-2
Slowly but inexorably the Tories are losing this election, no doubt about it. Sad to say they have been lacklustre and seemingly on the defensive throughout.
There will probably more bad news for them from Stephen Fisher's updated GE projection in the morning.
A very disappointing election campaign for the Conservatives so far. Nothing looks like working. Hung parliament for sure but I'm thinking it'll be Labour most seats even with the bloodbath for them in Scotland.
It's very probable there was no late swing to the tories in '92, they probably led all along
I'm not saying the polls are wrong, but I'm a layer of NOM at 1.13 three weeks out. They could be wrong in either direction, of course.