Think we need to see the audience share for this and then poll watch but Im a tory leaner & even I think Miliband not only won but looked prime ministerial. In fact if he gets in I won't be so alarmed after that. Cant see how that can help David Cameron.
Neither Ed (nor Dave) will get an OM unless something unholy happens. Which means that there will be a coalition of some sort and however formally.
So which would you prefer - one far from perfect but which has five years track record, or one which would be based on fundamental differences of principle. (Or C&S which only means GE x 2 before too long in the latter case)?
@SunPolitics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour and Tories tied: CON 34%, LAB 34%, LD 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%
And normal service is restored...
Yes indeed. And that's terrible for the Tories. But that's ok, they still have...something else to try to change momentum from 'static leading to Lab win' to in their favour. Cannot think what that would be right now though, but I'm sure there' s something. Not.
About a 1 in 10 chance says my gut. And no this is not about the poll showing Ed M as PM better than Cameron. That helps Ed if it is sustained, but he didn't need it. Cameron needed Ed to be damaged by this, and he wasn't.
@SunPolitics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour and Tories tied: CON 34%, LAB 34%, LD 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%
And normal service is restored...
Yes indeed. And that's terrible for the Tories. But that's ok, they still have...something else to try to change momentum from 'static leading to Lab win' to in their favour. Cannot think what that would be right now though, but I'm sure there' s something. Not.
About a 1 in 10 chance says my gut. And no this is not about the poll showing Ed M as PM better than Cameron. That helps Ed if it is sustained, but he didn't need it. Cameron needed Ed to be damaged by this, and he wasn't.
43% best prime minister. Yeah, of course Dave was right to not show up..... pffffft
You do realise that is best out of the five participants? Not of anyone including Dave? I'd have thought 43% pretty low on that basis.
Note that the highest score on any of the questions is Farage's 53% best on immigration which rather scotches the claim that the audience was representative.
Think we need to see the audience share for this and then poll watch but Im a tory leaner & even I think Miliband not only won but looked prime ministerial. In fact if he gets in I won't be so alarmed after that. Cant see how that can help David Cameron.
My wife thought Miliband was rubbish and Sturgeon came across well. This pleased her until I pointed out this meant that given the chance she would be using Miliband to get the English to pay for Scottish goodies.
The big puzzle remains - why would Reckless and Carswell swop parties for the crass shifty divisive Farage?
So here is the question... how long of not having cross over before Cameron decides he might as well go for a debate with Ed Miliband as he is fcked without it!
@SunPolitics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour and Tories tied: CON 34%, LAB 34%, LD 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%
And normal service is restored...
Yes indeed. And that's terrible for the Tories. But that's ok, they still have...something else to try to change momentum from 'static leading to Lab win' to in their favour. Cannot think what that would be right now though, but I'm sure there' s something. Not.
About a 1 in 10 chance says my gut. And no this is not about the poll showing Ed M as PM better than Cameron. That helps Ed if it is sustained, but he didn't need it. Cameron needed Ed to be damaged by this, and he wasn't.
43% best prime minister. Yeah, of course Dave was right to not show up..... pffffft
You do realise that is best out of the five participants? Not of anyone including Dave? I'd have thought 43% pretty low on that basis.
Note that the highest score on any of the questions is Farage's 53% best on immigration which rather scotches the claim that the audience was representative.
GOsborneGenius retweeted Jim Pickard @PickardJE 2m2 minutes ago Killer poll: Straight contest, Cameron and Miliband to be Prime Minister? Cameron - 40% Miliband - 45% Don’t know - 5% Survation/Mirror
WOW just WOW
Far from ideal but asked after 14/15 questions, in which Cameron wasn't mentioned or an option, would give Miliband an advantage in this final question.
With the Libdems struggling to get much beyond the 7-8% in the polls it makes it hard to see them getting over 20 seats. Indeed they could lose a small fortune in lost deposits. Maybe they should back the PP odds of 11/10 on over 200 lost deposits for them.....
Easy win for Sturgeon. Farage won't care about the polarisation, and was a total shore up the core UKIP vote strategy. Insulting the audience whatever you think of them wasn't clever. Cameron not being there a self inflicted own goal. Miliband bashed around from pillar to post with attacks from left and right, and bringing up the 1979 SNP voting down Labour government was a truly apalling moment for him.
I wonder if a FOI request to the BBC will give a breakdown of audience members and their VI.
The QT from Clacton on the night of the by-election was quite telling. When the audience asked if they were voting UKIP only two people put their hand up. Not quite what the polls showed later on.
Wonder how BenM is feeling now about his rather silly claims earlier given that Survation have more 53% feeling Farage gave the best answers on immigration. The only case in any of the questions where any of the leaders had an absolute majority in favour.
Rather more 'real' than his claims about public opinion.
More dodgy weightings in poll from Survation today - far too heavy with public sector workers against private. Can't believe how many poorly weighted polls we're seeing in this campaign. I hope some of the pollsters get the faulty results they deserve quite frankly.
A Lib Dem seat is only marginally better to them than a Tory one so I'm not sure if they have.
Really?! Imagine how gutted they'd be if they had to do some horribly unpopular deal with the SNP because LD were just a few seats too low to be viable
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour and Tories tied: CON 34%, LAB 34%, LD 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%
With the Labour loading in the sample that means the Tories are 3 ahead.
What do you mean?
I asked him the same & he hasn't replied so Im guessing it just means the tories aren't doing as well as he likes so he's bumping them up 3% every time
As Cameron was not taking part not many Tory voters will have watched so I doubt it will make much difference at all, certainly no Tory voter will switch to Labour, the key is the 2 parties are level pegging with yougov and UKIP is on 14%, Cameron still needs to squeeze that vote to win
If Cameron had been there tonight the SNP still would have. He just bottled it. Full Stop.
Assertions do not an argument make. Cameron obviously judged that it would be to his advantage not to debate. I still think he'll be vindicated on that: the low Farage score and the high Sturgeon one will be very satisfactory. I thought Farage would "win" easily.
Easy win for Sturgeon. Farage won't care about the polarisation, and was a total shore up the core UKIP vote strategy. Insulting the audience whatever you think of them wasn't clever. Cameron not being there a self inflicted own goal. Miliband bashed around from pillar to post with attacks from left and right, and bringing up the 1979 SNP voting down Labour government was a truly apalling moment for him.
I don't get why he did it. Maybe to show how he is battling "The Establishment".
A Lib Dem seat is only marginally better to them than a Tory one so I'm not sure if they have.
Really?! Imagine how gutted they'd be if they had to do some horribly unpopular deal with the SNP because LD were just a few seats too low to be viable
It's still a seat closer to the current coalition continuing. Labour have an outside chance of winning Watford themselves, so could take one seat off the coalition.
@SunPolitics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour and Tories tied: CON 34%, LAB 34%, LD 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%
And normal service is restored...
Yes indeed. And that's terrible for the Tories. But that's ok, they still have...something else to try to change momentum from 'static leading to Lab win' to in their favour. Cannot think what that would be right now though, but I'm sure there' s something. Not.
About a 1 in 10 chance says my gut. And no this is not about the poll showing Ed M as PM better than Cameron. That helps Ed if it is sustained, but he didn't need it. Cameron needed Ed to be damaged by this, and he wasn't.
31% for Sturgeon is not good at all for Ed.
It should have been higher. He still 'won' and his ratings have gone up again. Even if that is only temporary, it still doesn't address the fact the Tories are reliant on the polls all being wrong, and there to be an understatement of their support, and for Labour to decline, to get them up to a 4-5 lead, and even that is dicey as to whether it would be enough for the Tories.
Tonight could only ever have had a small impact on things, but what it hasn't done is lead to Ed being ridiculed or likely to drop much support, even if we accept he would have wanted to bear Sturgeon by more.
Gods, why didn't they just send Sturgeon to represent all three of them, she'd probably do just as good a job alone. I swear Leanne really struggle to avoid criticising the Greens at one point, taking a long walk over to attack Farage with a weak gag, I presume they agreed not to attack each other, given their alliance.
@SunPolitics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour and Tories tied: CON 34%, LAB 34%, LD 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%
And normal service is restored...
Yes indeed. And that's terrible for the Tories. But that's ok, they still have...something else to try to change momentum from 'static leading to Lab win' to in their favour. Cannot think what that would be right now though, but I'm sure there' s something. Not.
About a 1 in 10 chance says my gut. And no this is not about the poll showing Ed M as PM better than Cameron. That helps Ed if it is sustained, but he didn't need it. Cameron needed Ed to be damaged by this, and he wasn't.
31% for Sturgeon is not good at all for Ed.
It should have been higher. He still 'won' and his ratings have gone up again. Even if that is only temporary, it still doesn't address the fact the Tories are reliant on the polls all being wrong, and there to be an understatement of their support, and for Labour to decline, to get them up to a 4-5 lead, and even that is dicey as to whether it would be enough for the Tories.
Tonight could only ever have had a small impact on things, but what it hasn't done is lead to Ed being ridiculed or likely to drop much support, even if we accept he would have wanted to bear Sturgeon by more.
The Tories need the UKIP vote to decline. A 1-2% swing from Labour on top would be the cherry on the cake.
Everywhere I've been in Southampton Itchen and Test there is a complete lack of posters up. You really wouldn't believe there is an election on 3 weeks today in Southampton. Very strange indeed.
43% best prime minister. Yeah, of course Dave was right to not show up..... pffffft
You do realise that is best out of the five participants? Not of anyone including Dave? I'd have thought 43% pretty low on that basis.
Note that the highest score on any of the questions is Farage's 53% best on immigration which rather scotches the claim that the audience was representative.
It certainly wasn't, I wouldn't dispute that. I still don't see how the BBC are to blame if they didn't pick the audience though.
With the Labour loading in the sample that means the Tories are 3 ahead.
What do you mean?
Every sample assumes that Labour were 1% ahead in January and the decision to weight by that assumption means they downgrade the Tory sample tin virtually every poll to equal that.
The phones in January had the Tories ahead - not 1 behind.
They are effectively applying a 0.951 ratio to the Tory VI in every sample - i.e. discarding 1 in 20 Tory votes,
My friend who now lives there is reporting masses of Yellow Peril signs about. He reckons they may win.
Just like the anecdotes we heard in 2005 and 2010...
Apparently Oxford West would have been LD in 1983, 1987 and 1992 if numbers of posters were the yardstick.
Oxford West has changed it's boundaries to include lots of despicable Tories from Abingdon. Where I lived in Oxford North it was yellow peril all the way. Why anyone (unless they were a Tory) would ever want to venture into Abingdon, god only knows. Full of Tories and depressingly white.
@SunPolitics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour and Tories tied: CON 34%, LAB 34%, LD 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%
And normal service is restored...
Yes indeed. And that's terrible for the Tories. But that's ok, they still have...something else to try to change momentum from 'static leading to Lab win' to in their favour. Cannot think what that would be right now though, but I'm sure there' s something. Not.
About a 1 in 10 chance says my gut. And no this is not about the poll showing Ed M as PM better than Cameron. That helps Ed if it is sustained, but he didn't need it. Cameron needed Ed to be damaged by this, and he wasn't.
31% for Sturgeon is not good at all for Ed.
It should have been higher. He still 'won' and his ratings have gone up again. Even if that is only temporary, it still doesn't address the fact the Tories are reliant on the polls all being wrong, and there to be an understatement of their support, and for Labour to decline, to get them up to a 4-5 lead, and even that is dicey as to whether it would be enough for the Tories.
Tonight could only ever have had a small impact on things, but what it hasn't done is lead to Ed being ridiculed or likely to drop much support, even if we accept he would have wanted to bear Sturgeon by more.
Ed did fine this evening, but no more.
Quite right. The motto of his leadership would seem to be 'Winning here. Just'.
With the Labour loading in the sample that means the Tories are 3 ahead.
What do you mean?
Every sample assumes that Labour were 1% ahead in January and the decision to weight by that assumption means they downgrade the Tory sample tin virtually every poll to equal that.
The phones in January had the Tories ahead - not 1 behind.
They are effectively applying a 0.951 ration to the Tory VI in every sample - i.e. discarding 1 in 20 Tory votes,
There is an awful lot of wishful thinking going around here. There is both qualitative and quantitative polling evidence to back up the assertion this debate has made Ed M look more prime ministerial. It might not shift he polls very much but in a very tight race where the key tory strategy has been to attack Ed M personally this could be pretty important. Take away this element of the tory strategy and what is left? Not a better ground campaign that's for sure.
The tories around here might want to consider that those planning their campaign might not really be quite up to the job, after all, did they do such a good job in 2005 & 2010? Perhaps Michael Ashcroft might have a point?
'Killer poll: Straight contest, Cameron and Miliband to be PM? Cameron - 40% Miliband - 45% DK - 5% Survation/Mirror'
Ahhh, I remember the good old days when Mike used to rubbish those binary-choice polls as utterly meaningless.
Mike not only thinks Labour will win; he wants them to win. He's even thinking about voting for them in Bedford, despite being heavily critical of their party for years and a lifelong Lib Dem.
He feels very angry about how he feels the Tories have treated the Lib Dems in coalition, and the electoral consequences of that.
Multi-millionaire internet marketing guru Grant Shapps/Michael Green will have an excellent career as a used car salesman if he fails to get re-elected.
Ken Clarke 'Tories too rightwing to win outright', plus concerned over 'fragile' spending pledges and state of economy htps://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/588816379542929408?lang=en-gb
Well, that'll make him more popular. Then again, most of the current crop of Tories seem to regard him as an embarrassing LD at heart anyway, so not much further to fall in their eyes. I hope he stays on as an MP long enough to see the party revert back around to be closer to where he is - could take awhile though, and he'll have been there 50 years already if he sticks it out to the end of this upcoming parliament.
My friend who now lives there is reporting masses of Yellow Peril signs about. He reckons they may win.
Just like the anecdotes we heard in 2005 and 2010...
Apparently Oxford West would have been LD in 1983, 1987 and 1992 if numbers of posters were the yardstick.
Oxford West has changed it's boundaries to include lots of despicable Tories from Abingdon. Where I lived in Oxford North it was yellow peril all the way. Why anyone (unless they were a Tory) would ever want to venture into Abingdon, god only knows. Full of Tories and depressingly white.
I go there to use Waitrose. There isn't one in Oxford (yet)
Comments
So which would you prefer - one far from perfect but which has five years track record, or one which would be based on fundamental differences of principle. (Or C&S which only means GE x 2 before too long in the latter case)?
I agree with Nick.
About a 1 in 10 chance says my gut. And no this is not about the poll showing Ed M as PM better than Cameron. That helps Ed if it is sustained, but he didn't need it. Cameron needed Ed to be damaged by this, and he wasn't.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
LAB & CON level pegging in latest YouGov. CON 34%, LAB 34%, LD 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%
Poll completed BEFORE tonight's debate
Ken Livingstone retweeted Jason Beattie
. @DPJHodges The public are trolling you.
More @Survation for @dailymirror Who would be best PM, David Cameron or Ed Miliband?
David Cameron - 40%
Ed Miliband - 45%
Bone. Dry.
Note that the highest score on any of the questions is Farage's 53% best on immigration which rather scotches the claim that the audience was representative.
The big puzzle remains - why would Reckless and Carswell swop parties for the crass shifty divisive Farage?
Another great quote from Farage
My friend who now lives there is reporting masses of Yellow Peril signs about. He reckons they may win.
GOsborneGenius @GOsborneGenius
@MSmithsonPB @PickardJE "Disaster for Miliband" - Dan Hodges
Retweeted by Mike Smithson
Mike is a fan of our former poster tim.
Maybe they should back the PP odds of 11/10 on over 200 lost deposits for them.....
"You really come across as a tad misogynist, and that is saying quite alot on this site."
Yes and yes.
Balanced by the creditable TSE.
The QT from Clacton on the night of the by-election was quite telling. When the audience asked if they were voting UKIP only two people put their hand up. Not quite what the polls showed later on.
http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=survation east dunbartonshire&source=web&cd=4&ved=0CCcQFjAD&url=http://www.libdemvoice.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/East-Dunbartonshire-constituency-poll.pdf&ei=2CUwVcXSGY7-aOKGgLAC&usg=AFQjCNFHDQsihaSfkSriHpZOQFklmxYJUg&sig2=8b1CUQ-wtnNQ749RoHlTgg&bvm=bv.91071109,d.d2s
If Cameron had been there tonight the SNP still would have. He just bottled it. Full Stop.
Rather more 'real' than his claims about public opinion.
No UKIP ones either mind.
Unders for turnout in Rother Valley.
In a constituency your may see 200 diamonds from LD members, leaving approx 79,800 votes still to play for.
"With the Labour loading in the sample that means the Tories are 3 ahead"
I know you want the Tories to be ahead but wishing it isn't going to take you very far.
He should have trolled the audience afterwards.
It's still a seat closer to the current coalition continuing. Labour have an outside chance of winning Watford themselves, so could take one seat off the coalition.
Tonight could only ever have had a small impact on things, but what it hasn't done is lead to Ed being ridiculed or likely to drop much support, even if we accept he would have wanted to bear Sturgeon by more.
I quite like some of the UKIP and LibDem women, actually.
Straight contest, Cameron and Miliband to be PM?
Cameron - 40%
Miliband - 45%
DK - 5%
Survation/Mirror'
Ahhh, I remember the good old days when Mike used to rubbish those binary-choice polls as utterly meaningless.
I am an activist and I have never said that I am not. Fact is guys you all thought that the deabtes would show up Mili and they haven't.
You all though there would be massive crossover and there hasn't/
Ed did fine this evening, but no more.
Weighted sample of 1,000 apparently, and I assume they would be from those watching.
Lab hold Chesterfield
Con gain NE Derbyshire
LAB gain Amber Valley
In reality all 3 LAB methinks
Every sample assumes that Labour were 1% ahead in January and the decision to weight by that assumption means they downgrade the Tory sample tin virtually every poll to equal that.
The phones in January had the Tories ahead - not 1 behind.
They are effectively applying a 0.951 ratio to the Tory VI in every sample - i.e. discarding 1 in 20 Tory votes,
Where I lived in Oxford North it was yellow peril all the way. Why anyone (unless they were a Tory) would ever want to venture into Abingdon, god only knows. Full of Tories and depressingly white.
Lord Ashcroft ✔ @LordAshcroft
The gamble by @Ed_Miliband of appearing in this debate without @David_Cameron is on balance paying off....
I'm afraid he could be right.
The phones in January had the Tories ahead - not 1 behind.
They are effectively applying a 0.951 ration to the Tory VI in every sample - i.e. discarding 1 in 20 Tory votes,
I see. You don't agree with the results.
https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/588816379542929408?lang=en-gb
The tories around here might want to consider that those planning their campaign might not really be quite up to the job, after all, did they do such a good job in 2005 & 2010? Perhaps Michael Ashcroft might have a point?
Dave made a wise choice staying away, particularly if UKIP support declines in the aftermath of an indifferent (not disastrous) showing by Farage.
Ed didn't do badly but he could - and should - have done better against Nicola.
Its literally a national debate about how we get rid of the Tories!
No. I just stick in the odd £50 and campaign every now and then.
He feels very angry about how he feels the Tories have treated the Lib Dems in coalition, and the electoral consequences of that.
Con 27
Lab 35
LD 6
UKIP 20
Oth 11
Everything else follows from that and it makes that 45-40 finding look highly suspect.
And even if he did well in the debate,he`s already lost when a challenger openly throws the gauntlet like that in front of 5 million people.