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  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    JohnO said:

    IOS said:

    pulpstar

    I am an activist and I have never said that I am not. Fact is guys you all thought that the deabtes would show up Mili and they haven't.

    You all though there would be massive crossover and there hasn't/

    But you're somewhat more than an 'activist', aren't you...?

    Dave made a wise choice staying away, particularly if UKIP support declines in the aftermath of an indifferent (not disastrous) showing by Farage.

    Ed didn't do badly but he could - and should - have done better against Nicola.
    What is more than an activist? Sounds scary.

    I didn't reply the other night, but Norwich is hideously white. True- but Guardian reading, organic veg box buying, cycling, hiking, non Tory voting white. So tolerable. Plus, I'll be living between Norwich and Italy, so I can always escape.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    tyson said:

    AndyJS said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Watford anecdote alert:

    My friend who now lives there is reporting masses of Yellow Peril signs about. He reckons they may win.

    Just like the anecdotes we heard in 2005 and 2010...
    Apparently Oxford West would have been LD in 1983, 1987 and 1992 if numbers of posters were the yardstick.
    Oxford West has changed it's boundaries to include lots of despicable Tories from Abingdon.
    Where I lived in Oxford North it was yellow peril all the way. Why anyone (unless they were a Tory) would ever want to venture into Abingdon, god only knows. Full of Tories and depressingly white.
    Lib Dems have regularly won seats on the Vale of White Horse council in Abingdon. The following makes clear that Nicola Blackwood was successful in minimising the deficit in the north Oxford wards, and just about carried the day with the rural wards outside of Oxford and Abingdon in the constituency:

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.pl?seat=Oxford West and Abingdon
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291

    'Killer poll:
    Straight contest, Cameron and Miliband to be PM?
    Cameron - 40%
    Miliband - 45%
    DK - 5%
    Survation/Mirror'

    Ahhh, I remember the good old days when Mike used to rubbish those binary-choice polls as utterly meaningless.

    Mike not only thinks Labour will win; he wants them to win. He's even thinking about voting for them in Bedford, despite being heavily critical of their party for years and a lifelong Lib Dem.

    He feels very angry about how he feels the Tories have treated the Lib Dems in coalition, and the electoral consequences of that.
    Oh yes, most assuredly he wll be voting for them as part of the arrangement that a Labour supporter in Twickenham will support Vince.

    Fair enough. No one should object to partisan threads - they are the lifeblood of the site.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    VI was weighted approx 39-30 Labour!!!
    Edit, actually 34-27. What a joke.
    Decent Scottish subsample mind :)
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited April 2015
    tyson said:

    JohnO said:

    IOS said:

    pulpstar

    I am an activist and I have never said that I am not. Fact is guys you all thought that the deabtes would show up Mili and they haven't.

    You all though there would be massive crossover and there hasn't/

    But you're somewhat more than an 'activist', aren't you...?

    Dave made a wise choice staying away, particularly if UKIP support declines in the aftermath of an indifferent (not disastrous) showing by Farage.

    Ed didn't do badly but he could - and should - have done better against Nicola.
    What is more than an activist? Sounds scary.

    I didn't reply the other night, but Norwich is hideously white. True- but Guardian reading, organic veg box buying, cycling, hiking, non Tory voting white. So tolerable. Plus, I'll be living between Norwich and Italy, so I can always escape.
    Nice. Imagine the uproar from the Left if a poster described somewhere as 'hideously Asian'.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Tories accused of Magic Money Tree promises by Carswell
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    There has been a by-election in Walney South (Cumbria) today.....the wife of the MP resigned after moving back to Scotland post divorce.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    VI was weighted approx 39-30 Labour!!!
    Edit, actually 34-27. What a joke.
    Decent Scottish subsample mind :)
    68% of Scots thought Sturgeon won! And I bet the audience was disproportionately high there too.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    tyson said:

    JohnO said:

    IOS said:

    pulpstar

    I am an activist and I have never said that I am not. Fact is guys you all thought that the deabtes would show up Mili and they haven't.

    You all though there would be massive crossover and there hasn't/

    But you're somewhat more than an 'activist', aren't you...?

    Dave made a wise choice staying away, particularly if UKIP support declines in the aftermath of an indifferent (not disastrous) showing by Farage.

    Ed didn't do badly but he could - and should - have done better against Nicola.
    What is more than an activist? Sounds scary.

    I didn't reply the other night, but Norwich is hideously white. True- but Guardian reading, organic veg box buying, cycling, hiking, non Tory voting white. So tolerable. Plus, I'll be living between Norwich and Italy, so I can always escape.
    I love you deeply and would relish getting plastered in your company but I shudder at the thought that you once earned a living advising local governent.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    Have you ever read a bigger load of rubbish than this? 7 Tory seats in Scotland!

    http://moneyweek.com/election-2015-why-david-cameron-will-remain-prime-minister/
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    tyson said:

    JohnO said:

    IOS said:

    pulpstar

    I am an activist and I have never said that I am not. Fact is guys you all thought that the deabtes would show up Mili and they haven't.

    You all though there would be massive crossover and there hasn't/

    But you're somewhat more than an 'activist', aren't you...?

    Dave made a wise choice staying away, particularly if UKIP support declines in the aftermath of an indifferent (not disastrous) showing by Farage.

    Ed didn't do badly but he could - and should - have done better against Nicola.
    What is more than an activist? Sounds scary.

    I didn't reply the other night, but Norwich is hideously white. True- but Guardian reading, organic veg box buying, cycling, hiking, non Tory voting white. So tolerable. Plus, I'll be living between Norwich and Italy, so I can always escape.
    Nice. Imagine the uproar from the Left if a poster described somewhere as 'hideously Asian'.
    I know,disgraceful post.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    The most notable thing about this election campaign so far is just how uncrap Ed has been. He has outperformed expectations significantly. Mine, at least.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    hunchman said:

    tyson said:

    AndyJS said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Watford anecdote alert:

    My friend who now lives there is reporting masses of Yellow Peril signs about. He reckons they may win.

    Just like the anecdotes we heard in 2005 and 2010...
    Apparently Oxford West would have been LD in 1983, 1987 and 1992 if numbers of posters were the yardstick.
    Oxford West has changed it's boundaries to include lots of despicable Tories from Abingdon.
    Where I lived in Oxford North it was yellow peril all the way. Why anyone (unless they were a Tory) would ever want to venture into Abingdon, god only knows. Full of Tories and depressingly white.
    Lib Dems have regularly won seats on the Vale of White Horse council in Abingdon. The following makes clear that Nicola Blackwood was successful in minimising the deficit in the north Oxford wards, and just about carried the day with the rural wards outside of Oxford and Abingdon in the constituency:

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.pl?seat=Oxford West and Abingdon
    I lost virtually all my 2010 winnings on Oxford West, convinced that it was inconceivable that Blackwood could take the seat. Well over a grand. And still, I find it inconceivable that this bible thumping, fox hunting backed, Tory who was so impressive when I met her, is there. That's how it goes I guess.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    edited April 2015
    SMukesh said:

    that Ed would be torn apart.I sense Milimania coming on...

    Well done to Ed tbh, I honestly thought it'd be a bit of a massacre but judging by the Survation he is suring up the English Labour vote.

    I've still not watched it btw.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    Jonathan said:

    JohnO said:

    IOS said:

    pulpstar

    I am an activist and I have never said that I am not. Fact is guys you all thought that the deabtes would show up Mili and they haven't.

    You all though there would be massive crossover and there hasn't/

    But you're somewhat more than an 'activist', aren't you...?

    Dave made a wise choice staying away, particularly if UKIP support declines in the aftermath of an indifferent (not disastrous) showing by Farage.

    Ed didn't do badly but he could - and should - have done better against Nicola.
    It was wrong that the Tory voice was absent in an election debate. Tactics and games maybe, but wrong nonetheless.

    You are simply peerless in the sanctimonious stakes - and I say that with all the compassion a sentient being can muster.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Southam

    And you still owe me a meal out for young underestimation of ED
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    kle4 Clarke is basically an Orange Book LD anyway
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Never seen such an exciting count...

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CCvmPXWWIAENBAW.jpg:large
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    There has been a by-election in Walney South (Cumbria) today.....the wife of the MP resigned after moving back to Scotland post divorce.

    An omen for the GE ?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2015
    "Lord Janner should have been charged with historic child sex offences on three occasions over 25 years and will now never be prosecuted because of the 'severity' of his dementia, the Crown Prosecution Service said today.
    Alison Saunders, Director of Public Prosecutions, has expressed her 'deep regret' that the 86-year-old former Labour MP for Leicester West will not face trial because of botched investigations in 1991, 2002 and 2007.
    The decision not to charge him with 22 alleged sex attacks on children has infuriated police and campaigners, who have called it 'perverse' and a 'step backwards for justice'.
    Leicestershire Police may appeal because they handed the CPS 'credible evidence', including videos, showing 'this man carried out some of the most serious sexual crimes imaginable'."


    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3041209/Labour-s-Janner-not-charged-alleged-child-abuse-Prosecutors-say-not-public-peer-86-trial-age-dementia.html
  • tim80tim80 Posts: 99
    Clearly debate watchers are going to be biased towards saying miliband is better than Cameron as they have invested time in watching the debate and annoyed that Cameron not there. Just as the worm showed audience members liked it when miliband criticised Cameron for not being there.

    But people not watching will care a lot less, if at all.

    This will likely be the only poll of the campaign showing miliband ahead on best pm.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    edited April 2015
    SMukesh said:

    And Cameron has got no choice but to debate Ed.

    And even if he did well in the debate,he`s already lost when a challenger openly throws the gauntlet like that in front of 5 million people.

    What I just don't get is what the Tories expected to happen. They said no to more debates because they felt the risk to them was too high, fine. But why did they think that? What was it about Ed that made them think he would actually be their caricature of him, rather than the very experienced, driven, cautious person that he is? The observation below may have surprised many, but it should not have surprised Tory High Command, and yet they still thought either that Ed would collapse once exposed to the public, or that Cameron would receive a boost/retain a lead unless he cocked up/or would suffer more than Ed in such a scenario.

    The most notable thing about this election campaign so far is just how uncrap Ed has been. He has outperformed expectations significantly. Mine, at least.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Carswell nodding along to voting reform. Out of curiosity does anyone know how he campaigned during the AV referendum? Was he pro voting reform previously or is this a new conversion?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    I did repeatedly point out the dangers for Dave...

    Anyway we'll see if we have any more "poll movements"
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Judging by the anecdotes the Lib Dems could do quite well because of disproportionate turnout of their vote.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 Clarke is basically an Orange Book LD anyway

    Cuddly Ken!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Carswell nodding along to voting reform. Out of curiosity does anyone know how he campaigned during the AV referendum? Was he pro voting reform previously or is this a new conversion?

    This page includes a photo of Carswell's ballot paper from the AV referendum with a vote for No:

    http://www.talkcarswell.com/home/av-referendum--why-i-decided-to-vote-no/1913
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Seriously unimpressed with Survation's panel composition. They've weighted accurately to 2010 vote but the current VI is miles off. Makes the "killer poll" look like a load of shite.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Pulpstar said:

    SMukesh said:

    that Ed would be torn apart.I sense Milimania coming on...

    Well done to Ed tbh, I honestly thought it'd be a bit of a massacre but judging by the Survation he is suring up the English Labour vote.

    I've still not watched it btw.
    This idea that in every debate, the parties closest to each other would spend all their efforts scrapping to avoid losing votes to each other has been consistently wrong in every debate, and I don't know why people thought it'd be different this time. These parties want to project positive messages about their plans, and the easiest way to do that is to contrast them with drastically different policies. They know that nobody comes out looking good from petty quibbles over small differences.

    There was of course some targeting of Labour by the three left-wing parties, because yeah they do have to make some argument for why people should vote for them instead. But anyone who thought that was going to be the dominant dynamic in this debate hasn't been paying attention.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    tyson said:

    hunchman said:

    tyson said:

    AndyJS said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Watford anecdote alert:

    My friend who now lives there is reporting masses of Yellow Peril signs about. He reckons they may win.

    Just like the anecdotes we heard in 2005 and 2010...
    Apparently Oxford West would have been LD in 1983, 1987 and 1992 if numbers of posters were the yardstick.
    Oxford West has changed it's boundaries to include lots of despicable Tories from Abingdon.
    Where I lived in Oxford North it was yellow peril all the way. Why anyone (unless they were a Tory) would ever want to venture into Abingdon, god only knows. Full of Tories and depressingly white.
    Lib Dems have regularly won seats on the Vale of White Horse council in Abingdon. The following makes clear that Nicola Blackwood was successful in minimising the deficit in the north Oxford wards, and just about carried the day with the rural wards outside of Oxford and Abingdon in the constituency:

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.pl?seat=Oxford West and Abingdon
    I lost virtually all my 2010 winnings on Oxford West, convinced that it was inconceivable that Blackwood could take the seat. Well over a grand. And still, I find it inconceivable that this bible thumping, fox hunting backed, Tory who was so impressive when I met her, is there. That's how it goes I guess.
    I was shocked she won by 176 votes in 2010 as well, expecting her to lose by 2,000. Whatever we think, she is popular locally and I can't see anything other than her winning, regardless of how many gold diamonds are around in the constituency - it was the same in 2010. She's one of the biggest AGW climate change promoting Tories out there, so I wouldn't be sorry to see her go but it isn't going to happen.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    SMukesh said:

    And Cameron has got no choice but to debate Ed.

    In your dreams.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,491
    Posters near me: 2 Lab, 1 LD, 1 Green, 1 SNP

    I'm in Holborn & St Pancras, in London. I suspect the SNP will do worse in the vote than that poster count would suggest...

    In other news hopping around the UK's 4 nations, a Tory councillor a couple of wards over from me is one of the party's candidates in Northern Ireland!

    Henry
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    tim80 said:

    Clearly debate watchers are going to be biased towards saying miliband is better than Cameron as they have invested time in watching the debate and annoyed that Cameron not there. Just as the worm showed audience members liked it when miliband criticised Cameron for not being there.
    .

    I can see the reasoning in that. 'Poll shows Ed M preferred PM' is still a partisan headline that Cameron could probably have avoided if he had been there, and surely these sorts of things encourage the Labour base to turn out. It's not going to on its own sway matters, but it helps.

    Carswell nodding along to voting reform. Out of curiosity does anyone know how he campaigned during the AV referendum? Was he pro voting reform previously or is this a new conversion?

    He voted No. Not enough of a change it would seem, though from this single piece it is not clear that he would automatically support PR.

    http://www.talkcarswell.com/home/av-referendum--why-i-decided-to-vote-no/1913
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    Seems odd that nobody other than Survation is doing a post debate poll
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    Pulpstar said:

    There has been a by-election in Walney South (Cumbria) today.....the wife of the MP resigned after moving back to Scotland post divorce.

    An omen for the GE ?
    Who is the MP?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 Clarke is basically an Orange Book LD anyway

    I still recall a gag from Clegg in 2011 or 2012 about how much the LDs had achieved despite only 5 cabinet ministers '6 if you include Ken Clarke'. What made it particularly memorable was I happened to follow a link to a transcript of the speech on Clegg's website afterwards, and that gag was not in it.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    AndyJS said:

    "Lord Janner should have been charged with historic child sex offences on three occasions over 25 years and will now never be prosecuted because of the 'severity' of his dementia, the Crown Prosecution Service said today.
    Alison Saunders, Director of Public Prosecutions, has expressed her 'deep regret' that the 86-year-old former Labour MP for Leicester West will not face trial because of botched investigations in 1991, 2002 and 2007.
    The decision not to charge him with 22 alleged sex attacks on children has infuriated police and campaigners, who have called it 'perverse' and a 'step backwards for justice'.
    Leicestershire Police may appeal because they handed the CPS 'credible evidence', including videos, showing 'this man carried out some of the most serious sexual crimes imaginable'."


    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3041209/Labour-s-Janner-not-charged-alleged-child-abuse-Prosecutors-say-not-public-peer-86-trial-age-dementia.html

    And this is the same guy who devoted his life to pursuing nonagenarians to the ends of the earth for alleged crimes committed 70 years ago?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044
    AndyJS said:

    Carswell nodding along to voting reform. Out of curiosity does anyone know how he campaigned during the AV referendum? Was he pro voting reform previously or is this a new conversion?

    This page includes a photo of Carswell's ballot paper from the AV referendum with a vote for No:

    http://www.talkcarswell.com/home/av-referendum--why-i-decided-to-vote-no/1913
    Isn't doing that illegal? Naughty Carswell.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Carswell nodding along to voting reform. Out of curiosity does anyone know how he campaigned during the AV referendum? Was he pro voting reform previously or is this a new conversion?

    This page includes a photo of Carswell's ballot paper from the AV referendum with a vote for No:

    http://www.talkcarswell.com/home/av-referendum--why-i-decided-to-vote-no/1913
    Isn't doing that illegal? Naughty Carswell.
    Can't be. I thought it was.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,393

    Posters near me: 2 Lab, 1 LD, 1 Green, 1 SNP

    I'm in Holborn & St Pancras, in London. I suspect the SNP will do worse in the vote than that poster count would suggest...

    In other news hopping around the UK's 4 nations, a Tory councillor a couple of wards over from me is one of the party's candidates in Northern Ireland!

    Henry

    Like!

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Pulpstar said:

    Judging by the anecdotes the Lib Dems could do quite well because of disproportionate turnout of their vote.

    Though polls do seem to say that LD voters are less certain than other parties in their voting intention.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    edited April 2015
    I must confess, despite reading the manifestos at an election for the first time (rather than scanning them last time) and watching every debate and event I can, I am pretty undecided still. I generally lean somewhere between Con and LD, but I see no point in voting LD when they are going to be slaughtered and then probably tack left anyway, and Con don't enthuse me. Lab haven't learned their lessons and assume if I don't vote directly for the Tories I must hate them with a fiery passion, which irritates me, UKIP I want to do well but don't match up with my views in too many areas, and the Greens are pretty crazy, but might get a vote for entertainment value to see how high the Green vote can get.

    An electorally successful party somewhere between the Tories and LDs would not be totally amiss. Some LDs are there, but the party as a whole? And in the future?
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    RobD

    Don't think it is and it definitely shouldn't be. You should be entitled to a secret ballot but not be obliged.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Ed Conway @EdConwaySky

    Big vote of support for @george_Osborne from @lagarde: “When u look at growth rates it’s obvious that what happened in the UK has worked”

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    kle4 said:

    I must confess, despite reading the manifestos at an election for the first time (rather than scanning them last time) and watching every debate and event I can, I am pretty undecided still. I generally lean somewhere between Con and LD, but I see no point in voting LD when they are going to be slaughtered and then probably tack left anyway, and Con don't enthuse me. Lab haven't learned their lessons and assume if I don't vote directly for the Tories I must hate them with a fiery passion, which irritates me, UKIP I want to do well but don't match up with my views in too many areas, and the Greens are pretty crazy, but might get a vote for entertainment value to see how high the Green vote can get.

    An electorally successful party somewhere between the Tories and LDs would not be totally amiss. Some LDs are there, but the party as a whole? And in the future?

    I do not expect the LDs to win in my seat, indeed I expect the vote to go down, but I shall be voting LD anyway. I am an orange booker and while I do not agree with all LD policies, I do agree with more than any other party. I do quite like the Greens too...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    kle4/Tabman Of course had Clarke won the Tory leadership in 2001 he could have won LD votes in droves on an anti Iraq War ticket in 2005, Blair may well have lost his majority
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    hunchman said:

    tyson said:

    hunchman said:

    tyson said:

    AndyJS said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Watford anecdote alert:

    My friend who now lives there is reporting masses of Yellow Peril signs about. He reckons they may win.

    Just like the anecdotes we heard in 2005 and 2010...
    Apparently Oxford West would have been LD in 1983, 1987 and 1992 if numbers of posters were the yardstick.
    Oxford West has changed it's boundaries to include lots of despicable Tories from Abingdon.
    Where I lived in Oxford North it was yellow peril all the way. Why anyone (unless they were a Tory) would ever want to venture into Abingdon, god only knows. Full of Tories and depressingly white.
    Lib Dems have regularly won seats on the Vale of White Horse council in Abingdon. The following makes clear that Nicola Blackwood was successful in minimising the deficit in the north Oxford wards, and just about carried the day with the rural wards outside of Oxford and Abingdon in the constituency:

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.pl?seat=Oxford West and Abingdon
    I lost virtually all my 2010 winnings on Oxford West, convinced that it was inconceivable that Blackwood could take the seat. Well over a grand. And still, I find it inconceivable that this bible thumping, fox hunting backed, Tory who was so impressive when I met her, is there. That's how it goes I guess.
    I was shocked she won by 176 votes in 2010 as well, expecting her to lose by 2,000. Whatever we think, she is popular locally and I can't see anything other than her winning, regardless of how many gold diamonds are around in the constituency - it was the same in 2010. She's one of the biggest AGW climate change promoting Tories out there, so I wouldn't be sorry to see her go but it isn't going to happen.
    Does she reap the "groin vote"?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    edited April 2015


    Ed Conway @EdConwaySky

    Big vote of support for @george_Osborne from @lagarde: “When u look at growth rates it’s obvious that what happened in the UK has worked”

    Perhaps she'll give him a job when he get's his P45 in three weeks. :smiley:
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Carswell nodding along to voting reform. Out of curiosity does anyone know how he campaigned during the AV referendum? Was he pro voting reform previously or is this a new conversion?

    AV is a gerrymander of the existing FPTP system. It is not proportional and not a change to the current system. It's only effect is to slightly bias FPTP towards the third largest party - that's why the Liberals chose it.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    Last Tory lead in YouGov was a week ago.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    HYUFD

    If the Tories under Howard hadn't run such an embarrassing campaign they would have deprived Blair his majority.

    Crosby has to much to answer for! If you are a Tory at least.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387

    Last Tory lead in YouGov was a week ago.

    We know, we know...

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591


    Ed Conway @EdConwaySky

    Big vote of support for @george_Osborne from @lagarde: “When u look at growth rates it’s obvious that what happened in the UK has worked”

    That's nice. Presumably Osborne told us to ignore her as a fool when she was saying less positive things, so should we trust her judgement now? Still, the Tory message has some resonance. Too bad for them not enough people care.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    GIN1138 said:


    Ed Conway @EdConwaySky

    Big vote of support for @george_Osborne from @lagarde: “When u look at growth rates it’s obvious that what happened in the UK has worked”

    Perhaps she'll give him a job when he get's his P45 in three weeks. :smiley:
    I think George is fairly safe in Tatton. No p45 for him.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited April 2015
    GIN1138 said:


    Ed Conway @EdConwaySky

    Big vote of support for @george_Osborne from @lagarde: “When u look at growth rates it’s obvious that what happened in the UK has worked”

    Perhaps she'll give him a job when he get's his P45 in three weeks. :smiley:
    You could be right ;-) and what I saw tonight in the debate worries me for this country.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Why are the establishment political parties so proud of the NHS's overreliance on foreign workers to prop it up. The biggest scandal is why they have failed to train sufficient doctors and nurses for so long.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    GIN1138 said:

    Last Tory lead in YouGov was a week ago.

    We know, we know...

    Last Tory lead in ELBOW was week-ending Easter Sunday...
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    IOS said:

    HYUFD

    If the Tories under Howard hadn't run such an embarrassing campaign they would have deprived Blair his majority.

    Crosby has to much to answer for! If you are a Tory at least.

    I disagree.If `Are you thinking what we are thinking` wasn`t there,Howard would have reached Hague proportions.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    edited April 2015

    GIN1138 said:


    Ed Conway @EdConwaySky

    Big vote of support for @george_Osborne from @lagarde: “When u look at growth rates it’s obvious that what happened in the UK has worked”

    Perhaps she'll give him a job when he get's his P45 in three weeks. :smiley:
    I think George is fairly safe in Tatton. No p45 for him.
    He'll get his P45 as CotE and he'll be finished in terms of ever becoming LOTO/PM, so will he hang around as a lowly backbench MP for five years?

    Unlikely, IMO. He'll quit Parliament along with Cameron at some point in the next five years is my guess...
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    kle4 said:

    I must confess, despite reading the manifestos at an election for the first time (rather than scanning them last time) and watching every debate and event I can, I am pretty undecided still. I generally lean somewhere between Con and LD, but I see no point in voting LD when they are going to be slaughtered and then probably tack left anyway, and Con don't enthuse me. Lab haven't learned their lessons and assume if I don't vote directly for the Tories I must hate them with a fiery passion, which irritates me, UKIP I want to do well but don't match up with my views in too many areas, and the Greens are pretty crazy, but might get a vote for entertainment value to see how high the Green vote can get.

    An electorally successful party somewhere between the Tories and LDs would not be totally amiss. Some LDs are there, but the party as a whole? And in the future?

    I'm there. This is why we need ST.
    Dair said:

    Carswell nodding along to voting reform. Out of curiosity does anyone know how he campaigned during the AV referendum? Was he pro voting reform previously or is this a new conversion?

    AV is a gerrymander of the existing FPTP system. It is not proportional and not a change to the current system. It's only effect is to slightly bias FPTP towards the third largest party - that's why the Liberals chose it.
    Oblate spheroids. The "Liberals" want STV; AV was the compromise offered by the Tories.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    MP_SE said:

    Why are the establishment political parties so proud of the NHS's overreliance on foreign workers to prop it up. The biggest scandal is why they have failed to train sufficient doctors and nurses for so long.

    It is far cheaper to import doctors and nurses than to train them.

    There is a reason that Philipinos are now one of the fastest growing immigrant populations. Excellent well trained nurses they are too. So are the Portuguese though I am less convinced by the Spanish trained.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Dair said:

    Carswell nodding along to voting reform. Out of curiosity does anyone know how he campaigned during the AV referendum? Was he pro voting reform previously or is this a new conversion?

    AV is a gerrymander of the existing FPTP system. It is not proportional and not a change to the current system. It's only effect is to slightly bias FPTP towards the third largest party - that's why the Liberals chose it.
    gerrymander, bias?

    Write out 100 times...
    "I must not use words I do not understand"
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044
    edited April 2015
    GIN1138 said:

    Last Tory lead in YouGov was a week ago.

    We know, we know...

    I have a bucket of sand ready to stick my head in. Blue dawn is surely days away.. surely??

    :sweat:
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046

    kle4 said:

    I must confess, despite reading the manifestos at an election for the first time (rather than scanning them last time) and watching every debate and event I can, I am pretty undecided still. I generally lean somewhere between Con and LD, but I see no point in voting LD when they are going to be slaughtered and then probably tack left anyway, and Con don't enthuse me. Lab haven't learned their lessons and assume if I don't vote directly for the Tories I must hate them with a fiery passion, which irritates me, UKIP I want to do well but don't match up with my views in too many areas, and the Greens are pretty crazy, but might get a vote for entertainment value to see how high the Green vote can get.

    An electorally successful party somewhere between the Tories and LDs would not be totally amiss. Some LDs are there, but the party as a whole? And in the future?

    I do not expect the LDs to win in my seat, indeed I expect the vote to go down, but I shall be voting LD anyway. I am an orange booker and while I do not agree with all LD policies, I do agree with more than any other party. I do quite like the Greens too...
    Me too; we're an endangered species. However I view the Greens as watermelons.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759

    MP_SE said:

    Why are the establishment political parties so proud of the NHS's overreliance on foreign workers to prop it up. The biggest scandal is why they have failed to train sufficient doctors and nurses for so long.

    It is far cheaper to import doctors and nurses than to train them.

    There is a reason that Philipinos are now one of the fastest growing immigrant populations. Excellent well trained nurses they are too. So are the Portuguese though I am less convinced by the Spanish trained.

    Spanish nurses are lovely,I can assure you. :-)
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456

    Seriously unimpressed with Survation's panel composition. They've weighted accurately to 2010 vote but the current VI is miles off. Makes the "killer poll" look like a load of shite.

    killer poll based on a sample where 35% of respondents are labour and 26% tory, very dodgy
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    FPT
    I thought Nicola and the Indian girl, Leanne, did best :)

    Indian?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    edited April 2015

    GIN1138 said:


    Ed Conway @EdConwaySky

    Big vote of support for @george_Osborne from @lagarde: “When u look at growth rates it’s obvious that what happened in the UK has worked”

    Perhaps she'll give him a job when he get's his P45 in three weeks. :smiley:
    You could be right ;-) and what I saw tonight in the debate worries me for this country.
    Sadly the UK looks set to throw petrol over itself and light the match. We'll all just have to hunker down for the next five years and hope that sanity returns in 2020, but I imagine it will will take many years to recover from the disaster that awaits us in the next five...

  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Result of the local byelection in Walney South

    Labour 727
    UKIP 239
    Con 181

    Woodcock
    JohnO said:

    Pulpstar said:

    There has been a by-election in Walney South (Cumbria) today.....the wife of the MP resigned after moving back to Scotland post divorce.

    An omen for the GE ?
    Who is the MP?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Guess who hodges thinks who won ;-)


    Telegraph Comment ✔ @TeleComment

    The whole thing was a PR win for David Cameron, says @DPJhodges - why was Miliband even there? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11543496/BBC-TV-debate-Ed-Milibands-unnecessary-appearance-gave-David-Cameron-a-PR-victory.html

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Tabman said:

    kle4 said:

    I must confess, despite reading the manifestos at an election for the first time (rather than scanning them last time) and watching every debate and event I can, I am pretty undecided still. I generally lean somewhere between Con and LD, but I see no point in voting LD when they are going to be slaughtered and then probably tack left anyway, and Con don't enthuse me. Lab haven't learned their lessons and assume if I don't vote directly for the Tories I must hate them with a fiery passion, which irritates me, UKIP I want to do well but don't match up with my views in too many areas, and the Greens are pretty crazy, but might get a vote for entertainment value to see how high the Green vote can get.

    An electorally successful party somewhere between the Tories and LDs would not be totally amiss. Some LDs are there, but the party as a whole? And in the future?

    I do not expect the LDs to win in my seat, indeed I expect the vote to go down, but I shall be voting LD anyway. I am an orange booker and while I do not agree with all LD policies, I do agree with more than any other party. I do quite like the Greens too...
    Me too; we're an endangered species. However I view the Greens as watermelons.
    Sure. The Greens have some bonkers ideas, but there are some good ones in there too. In particular tuition fees.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    GIN1138 said:

    Last Tory lead in YouGov was a week ago.

    We know, we know...

    Last Tory lead in ELBOW was week-ending Easter Sunday...
    Still celebrating passover in Finchley and Bradford West.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    MP_SE said:

    Why are the establishment political parties so proud of the NHS's overreliance on foreign workers to prop it up. The biggest scandal is why they have failed to train sufficient doctors and nurses for so long.

    The BMC artificially suppressed the numbers to keep their price and influence up.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    AndyJS
    Accent Andy
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    SMukesh said:

    And Cameron has got no choice but to debate Ed.

    Who will he debating Ed with?

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:


    Ed Conway @EdConwaySky

    Big vote of support for @george_Osborne from @lagarde: “When u look at growth rates it’s obvious that what happened in the UK has worked”

    Perhaps she'll give him a job when he get's his P45 in three weeks. :smiley:
    I think George is fairly safe in Tatton. No p45 for him.
    He'll get his P45 as CotE and he'll be finished in terms of ever becoming LOTO/PM, so will he hang around as a lowly backbench MP for five years?

    Unlikely, IMO. He'll quit Parliament along with Cameron at some point in the next five years is my guess...
    I think that you are forgetting that George Osborne is a political genius.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046

    Tabman said:

    kle4 said:

    I must confess, despite reading the manifestos at an election for the first time (rather than scanning them last time) and watching every debate and event I can, I am pretty undecided still. I generally lean somewhere between Con and LD, but I see no point in voting LD when they are going to be slaughtered and then probably tack left anyway, and Con don't enthuse me. Lab haven't learned their lessons and assume if I don't vote directly for the Tories I must hate them with a fiery passion, which irritates me, UKIP I want to do well but don't match up with my views in too many areas, and the Greens are pretty crazy, but might get a vote for entertainment value to see how high the Green vote can get.

    An electorally successful party somewhere between the Tories and LDs would not be totally amiss. Some LDs are there, but the party as a whole? And in the future?

    I do not expect the LDs to win in my seat, indeed I expect the vote to go down, but I shall be voting LD anyway. I am an orange booker and while I do not agree with all LD policies, I do agree with more than any other party. I do quite like the Greens too...
    Me too; we're an endangered species. However I view the Greens as watermelons.
    Sure. The Greens have some bonkers ideas, but there are some good ones in there too. In particular tuition fees.
    What's their view on tuition fees?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:


    Ed Conway @EdConwaySky

    Big vote of support for @george_Osborne from @lagarde: “When u look at growth rates it’s obvious that what happened in the UK has worked”

    Perhaps she'll give him a job when he get's his P45 in three weeks. :smiley:
    I think George is fairly safe in Tatton. No p45 for him.
    He'll get his P45 as CotE and he'll be finished in terms of ever becoming LOTO/PM, so will he hang around as a lowly backbench MP for five years?

    Unlikely, IMO. He'll quit Parliament along with Cameron at some point in the next five years is my guess...
    I think that you are forgetting that George Osborne is a political genius.
    ?

  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759

    SMukesh said:

    And Cameron has got no choice but to debate Ed.

    Who will he debating Ed with?

    ?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Tabman said:

    MP_SE said:

    Why are the establishment political parties so proud of the NHS's overreliance on foreign workers to prop it up. The biggest scandal is why they have failed to train sufficient doctors and nurses for so long.

    The BMC artificially suppressed the numbers to keep their price and influence up.
    Not true. The numbers trained are decided by the Department of Health. The BMA has always supported medical immigration, which tends to dilute the influence and income of UK trained Doctors.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Big jump in the oil price to 63.98:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited April 2015
    The by-election was for the county division. The district ward has the same boundaries.

    Conservatives won from 2006 to 2009. However, in a straight fight, on 2010 GE day Labour polled 65.6% and Con 34.4%.

    So the changes compared to 2010 are Lab -2.2 Con -18.6 UKIP 20.8 from nowhere.
    Compared to 2013 (last elections in the area) it is Lab +1.9 UKIP +3.3 Con -5.3

    Ward/division is in Barrow and Furness, a 11.8% Labour majority.
  • hunchman said:

    tyson said:

    AndyJS said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Watford anecdote alert:

    My friend who now lives there is reporting masses of Yellow Peril signs about. He reckons they may win.

    Just like the anecdotes we heard in 2005 and 2010...
    Apparently Oxford West would have been LD in 1983, 1987 and 1992 if numbers of posters were the yardstick.
    Oxford West has changed it's boundaries to include lots of despicable Tories from Abingdon.
    Where I lived in Oxford North it was yellow peril all the way. Why anyone (unless they were a Tory) would ever want to venture into Abingdon, god only knows. Full of Tories and depressingly white.
    Lib Dems have regularly won seats on the Vale of White Horse council in Abingdon. The following makes clear that Nicola Blackwood was successful in minimising the deficit in the north Oxford wards, and just about carried the day with the rural wards outside of Oxford and Abingdon in the constituency:

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.pl?seat=Oxford West and Abingdon
    One thing to be careful with that site is it doesn't take account of actual candidates. e.g. it has the Greens getting 4.5% in Hertsmere but they're not standing there
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    SNP bloke on QT is absolutely useless, Jo Swinson slaughtered him.

    And Yvette Cooper got completely shown up by Piers Morgan of all people.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    Scott_P said:

    @SunPolitics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour and Tories tied: CON 34%, LAB 34%, LD 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%

    Seven days since last Tory YG lead
    One day since last Labour YG lead

    UKIP revival continues. 12 --> 13 --> 14
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046

    SMukesh said:

    And Cameron has got no choice but to debate Ed.

    Who will he debating Ed with?

    Will we get Miliband? And what has Millie done to warrant a ban?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    AndyJS said:

    FPT
    I thought Nicola and the Indian girl, Leanne, did best :)

    Indian?
    [sigh]
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/4328733.stm
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    QT in two weeks time is each leader in turn. From memory that's the same as in 2005 isn't it?

    Do we know which order they'll speak in or will it be decided by lots? Do we know how long each leaders segment is?
  • Anybody'd think pfi was incidental to the nhs funding crisis! The libdem woman, whose name I forget, has just made me sick to my stomach by jumping down the throat of the chap who mentioned it! WHAT A SHOWER, THE LOT OF THEM.....
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387

    hunchman said:

    tyson said:

    AndyJS said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Watford anecdote alert:

    My friend who now lives there is reporting masses of Yellow Peril signs about. He reckons they may win.

    Just like the anecdotes we heard in 2005 and 2010...
    Apparently Oxford West would have been LD in 1983, 1987 and 1992 if numbers of posters were the yardstick.
    Oxford West has changed it's boundaries to include lots of despicable Tories from Abingdon.
    Where I lived in Oxford North it was yellow peril all the way. Why anyone (unless they were a Tory) would ever want to venture into Abingdon, god only knows. Full of Tories and depressingly white.
    Lib Dems have regularly won seats on the Vale of White Horse council in Abingdon. The following makes clear that Nicola Blackwood was successful in minimising the deficit in the north Oxford wards, and just about carried the day with the rural wards outside of Oxford and Abingdon in the constituency:

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.pl?seat=Oxford West and Abingdon
    One thing to be careful with that site is it doesn't take account of actual candidates. e.g. it has the Greens getting 4.5% in Hertsmere but they're not standing there
    Carswell looked very uncomfortable when Piers Morgan was berating him over Farage's HIV comments...
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928

    Tabman said:

    MP_SE said:

    Why are the establishment political parties so proud of the NHS's overreliance on foreign workers to prop it up. The biggest scandal is why they have failed to train sufficient doctors and nurses for so long.

    The BMC artificially suppressed the numbers to keep their price and influence up.
    Not true. The numbers trained are decided by the Department of Health. The BMA has always supported medical immigration, which tends to dilute the influence and income of UK trained Doctors.
    Why would the BMA want that?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387

    QT in two weeks time is each leader in turn. From memory that's the same as in 2005 isn't it?

    Yes.

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    QT in two weeks time is each leader in turn. From memory that's the same as in 2005 isn't it?

    Do we know which order they'll speak in or will it be decided by lots? Do we know how long each leaders segment is?

    Do we know if the audience will be balanced ?

  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    GIN1138 said:

    hunchman said:

    tyson said:

    AndyJS said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Watford anecdote alert:

    My friend who now lives there is reporting masses of Yellow Peril signs about. He reckons they may win.

    Just like the anecdotes we heard in 2005 and 2010...
    Apparently Oxford West would have been LD in 1983, 1987 and 1992 if numbers of posters were the yardstick.
    Oxford West has changed it's boundaries to include lots of despicable Tories from Abingdon.
    Where I lived in Oxford North it was yellow peril all the way. Why anyone (unless they were a Tory) would ever want to venture into Abingdon, god only knows. Full of Tories and depressingly white.
    Lib Dems have regularly won seats on the Vale of White Horse council in Abingdon. The following makes clear that Nicola Blackwood was successful in minimising the deficit in the north Oxford wards, and just about carried the day with the rural wards outside of Oxford and Abingdon in the constituency:

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.pl?seat=Oxford West and Abingdon
    One thing to be careful with that site is it doesn't take account of actual candidates. e.g. it has the Greens getting 4.5% in Hertsmere but they're not standing there
    Carswell looked very uncomfortable when Piers Morgan was berating him over Farage's HIV comments...
    Those same comments that would not have been unpopular in Clacton and similar constituencies.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,688
    OT but with a political slant.

    I am a big fan of UK comics (the type you read not the joke tellers). In particular 2000AD which I have collected for the last 37 years.

    Flicking through this month's Judge Dredd Megazine I was impressed to come across a full page painting of Dredd's face with the following words:

    "He says Democracy's not for the people.
    You believe everything the man tells you?
    Exercise your right to vote 7 May 2015"

    I am immensely heartened by this. It is great that the people at 2000AD are taking it upon themselves to try and reach out in a novel fashion to a section of society that may not have the greatest turnout and elections and try to persuade them to vote.

  • What is the difference between performing best in the debate and winning the debate?
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    QT in two weeks time is each leader in turn. From memory that's the same as in 2005 isn't it?

    Do we know which order they'll speak in or will it be decided by lots? Do we know how long each leaders segment is?

    Do we know if the audience will be balanced ?

    Yes we do. It's on the BBC so it won't be.

    What do you make of the new allegations on the tragedy?
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    QT in two weeks time is each leader in turn. From memory that's the same as in 2005 isn't it?

    Do we know which order they'll speak in or will it be decided by lots? Do we know how long each leaders segment is?

    Do we know if the audience will be balanced ?

    Why does there even need to be an audience? Ditto the ITV debate. And tonight.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    edited April 2015

    GIN1138 said:

    hunchman said:

    tyson said:

    AndyJS said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Watford anecdote alert:

    My friend who now lives there is reporting masses of Yellow Peril signs about. He reckons they may win.

    Just like the anecdotes we heard in 2005 and 2010...
    Apparently Oxford West would have been LD in 1983, 1987 and 1992 if numbers of posters were the yardstick.
    Oxford West has changed it's boundaries to include lots of despicable Tories from Abingdon.
    Where I lived in Oxford North it was yellow peril all the way. Why anyone (unless they were a Tory) would ever want to venture into Abingdon, god only knows. Full of Tories and depressingly white.
    Lib Dems have regularly won seats on the Vale of White Horse council in Abingdon. The following makes clear that Nicola Blackwood was successful in minimising the deficit in the north Oxford wards, and just about carried the day with the rural wards outside of Oxford and Abingdon in the constituency:

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.pl?seat=Oxford West and Abingdon
    One thing to be careful with that site is it doesn't take account of actual candidates. e.g. it has the Greens getting 4.5% in Hertsmere but they're not standing there
    Carswell looked very uncomfortable when Piers Morgan was berating him over Farage's HIV comments...
    Those same comments that would not have been unpopular in Clacton and similar constituencies.
    Apparently Carswell's father is an eminent Dr in the field of HIV.

    Must have made for some interesting dinner conversations I imagine...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    IOS/Smukesh LDs would never dream of voting for Howard, however many anti war LDs would have voted for Clarke over Blair
This discussion has been closed.