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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP seats drop to their lowest level yet on the Commons seats spread markets

With all the focus being on LAB and CON there’s not been that much attention to the decline of UKIP in the polls. Although this is not universal quite a number of surveys from firms that used to have the best numbers for Farage’s party now have big declines.

Read the full story here

Alanbrooke

Some kippers returning to blue. But it still won't be enough.

Plato

Chris g000 once of this place is doing a cracking job on Twitter picking out key points from the Tory manifesto - well worth following https://twitter.com/chrisg0000

Richard_Nabavi

Rightly or wrongly, UKIP are yesterday's story. The SNP have taken their place in the media's attention.

TCPoliticalBetting

UKIP are standing in almost as many council seats as the LDs

The Conservatives are contesting 93.26 per cent of seats
Labour are contesting 75.13 per cent
The Lib Dems are standing in 45.98 per cent…
…which is only slightly ahead of UKIP, who have candidates in 43.67 per cent of seats

http://www.conservativehome.com/localgovernment/2015/04/the-conservatives-are-contesting-93-per-cent-of-council-seats-labour-are-only-fighting-75-per-cent.html

Morris_Dancer

Those spread figures are very close to my guess from some time ago.

FPT: Mr. Tyson, disagree on fox-hunting.

If you accept foxes must be controlled in terms of population, there are only certain means to do it.
1) Lamping.

This involves going round at night with a car equipped with a powerful floodlight, and a chap in the back with a rifle. The 'lamp' is turned on, the fox is dazzled and stunned for a moment, during which the marksman shoots it stone dead. Only problem is that there have been a couple of fatalities in recent years when (because it's night) people were stunned and shot by mistake.

2) Poisoning.

Works. But can also affect other animals, and can be excruciating.

3) Shooting (from a distance).

Again, it works. But as most farmers don't have sniper rifles this is likelier to wound, and cause a prolonged death, possibly due to starvation. Certainly no kinder than hunting.

4) Hunting.

Works, definitely gruesome but also far quicker than shooting [generally] and poisoning. More horrendous than lamping, but far safer for people.

If there's another option which lacks the drawbacks mentioned above and is safe for people whilst being kinder to the fox, I'd be interested in knowing it [my interest is purely academic, I should stress. I am not a hunter, a farmer or, indeed, a fox].

Tissue_Price

UKIP drifted from single figures/low double-figures to 25/1+ in several of the seats Ashcroft polled today. These 5-10% chances are becoming 1-2% chances and necessarily that changes the spread price (though not the over-under to anywhere near the same extent).

Artist

I think the Ashcroft polling was very worrying for them. UKIP came top in Cleethorpes in the local elections last year but they're only on a lowly 15% today. 20% in Dover doesn't put them in contention and they're also 21% behind in Dudley South.

This shows their chances of 'outside' gains in their stronger areas seem unlikely and they should probably put all their efforts into 6/7 target seats.

Pulpstar

In the past month or so Skybet have had the following:

UKIP -7.5 @ 4-6;
SNP 32.5+ @ 4-5;
Somerset NE Con @ 2-5.

tyson

"I wish people would not package anti fox hunting into some wider kind of anti rural narrative - as if there is some kind of exterior motive for wanting it banned.
Fox hunting by hounds is vile, cruel, disgusting- a sport where an animal is hunted by a pack of dogs and ripped apart at the end. Even the Italians think its cruel- they use dogs for driving the animal out of it's cover, but they shoot the animal at the end and then eat it.
Fox hunting is just killing barbarically for killings sake."

I re-posting from earlier because I cannot for the life of me begin to understand why the Tories would want to resurrect this squalid activity- it serves no political purpose for them, and will not pass a HoC vote, even with a Tory majority of 50.
The only thing I can think of is that the pro hunting lobby is putting in some serious cash into the marginals- I know Blackwood in Oxford is a beneficiary.
Money buys politicians. Not quite a news story, but very dispiriting nevertheless.

Alanbrooke

Richard_Nabavi said:

Rightly or wrongly, UKIP are yesterday's story. The SNP have taken their place in the media's attention.

Rather depends what the story is. The kippers still have enough of a buggeration factor swing 10s of seats .

Richard_Nabavi

Alanbrooke said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Rightly or wrongly, UKIP are yesterday's story. The SNP have taken their place in the media's attention.

Rhater depends what the story is. The kippers still have enough of a buggeration factor swing 10s of seats .

I meant in the media.

Of course it remains the case that UKIP might put Ed into No 10.

Pong

Have punters definitely been selling UKIP? Or has the spread just edged down with the polls?

Fenster

tyson said:

"I wish people would not package anti fox hunting into some wider kind of anti rural narrative - as if there is some kind of exterior motive for wanting it banned.
Fox hunting by hounds is vile, cruel, disgusting- a sport where an animal is hunted by a pack of dogs and ripped apart at the end. Even the Italians think its cruel- they use dogs for driving the animal out of it's cover, but they shoot the animal at the end and then eat it.
Fox hunting is just killing barbarically for killings sake."

I re-posting from earlier because I cannot for the life of me begin to understand why the Tories would want to resurrect this squalid activity- it serves no political purpose for them, and will not pass a HoC vote, even with a Tory majority of 50.
The only thing I can think of is that the pro hunting lobby is putting in some serious cash into the marginals- I know Blackwood in Oxford is a beneficiary.
Money buys politicians. Not quite a news story, but very dispiriting nevertheless.

My in-laws live on a farm and we spend a lot of time there. None of us want the fox-hunting ban repealed. It's cruel. Foxes are a pain in the arse and the law is a nonsense but Hooray Henry's dressed up in silly clothes cheering when a fox gets pulled to death is not cool.

Scott_P

@PickardJE: Manifesto 1979: "Labour doesn't oppose sale of councilhouses to sitting tenants of 2 years' standing who want to buy" http://t.co/b6q4dzXqtX

Did Emma Reynolds on Daily Politics really just say Labour's housing policy is not funded?

TGOHF

tyson said:

Fox hunting by hounds is vile, cruel, disgusting- a sport where an animal is hunted by a pack of dogs and ripped apart at the end.

Meh it's a fox not an orphan - incosequential compared with e.g. war in Syria.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Fenster, how do they handle foxes there?

Richard_Nabavi

Fenster said:

Hooray Henry's dressed up in silly clothes cheering when a fox gets pulled to death is not cool.

Well, that neatly demolishes tyson's statement that there is 'no exterior motive'.

Plato

This is interesting. I still disapprove of HS2.

We are committed to a truly national recovery, benefiting all
parts of our country�We have devolved powers to Scotland
and Wales, and set out long-term economic plans to raise
the growth rate of all parts of England, bringing areas which
have grown more slowly up to at least the national average�
Over the last year, the North grew faster than the South�By
connecting up the North with modern transport links, we
will enable its great cities and towns to pool their strengths�
We will invest a record £13 billion in transport for the North�
We will electrify the main rail routes, build the Northern
Hub, and provide new trains for the North�We will upgrade
the A1, M62, M1 and A555 link road

And that is on top of our £50 billion commitment to build High Speed 2 – the
new North-South railway linking up London with the West
Midlands, Leeds and Manchester – and develop High Speed
3 to join up the North. We will back scientific and technical
strengths by creating new institutions such as Health North;
the Royce Institute for Advanced Materials in Manchester,
Leeds, Liverpool and Sheffield; the National Centre for
Ageing Science and Innovation in Newcastle; the Cognitive
Computing centre at Daresbury; and by making investments
in energy research in Blackpool, Cumbria and Thornton�

We will back new jobs in the South West
To help attract growth and new businesses we will
improve connections to the South West with major
investment in the M5, A358, A30 and A303, and
the electrification of the Great Western Main Line –
bringing new fast trains on the route�We will invest to
boost tourism in the South West and ensure the worldclass defence assets and cyber-security industries of the
South West benefit the local economy

another_richard

Re today's constituency polls.

Its entirely possible that Labour regains all the seats it lost in North-West England in 2010. Together with Manchester Withington and Rochdale this would mean Labour having more seats in the region in 2015 than they did in 2005.

East of the Pennines its entirely possible that Labour have fewer MPs in 2015 than they did in 2010 - a gain in Dewsbury but losses in Bradford West and Grimsby.

This is a very strange election.

Please note the above are only possibilities not what I'm actually expecting.

TGOHF

Speaking of disgusting

http://order-order.com/2015/04/14/photo-exclusive-ed-miliband-picks-nose-on-train/#_@/y1-jVJWwd93WdA

Alanbrooke

Richard_Nabavi said:

Alanbrooke said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Rightly or wrongly, UKIP are yesterday's story. The SNP have taken their place in the media's attention.

Rhater depends what the story is. The kippers still have enough of a buggeration factor swing 10s of seats .

I meant in the media.

Of course it remains the case that UKIP might put Ed into No 10.

LOL you've tried that line for the last 2 years and it hasn't worked. If Ed gets in to No 10 it will be on his own efforts. Cameron should maybe give it a try.

[Deleted User]

Guido has helpfully pulled some choice items from the Green manifesto:

http://order-order.com/2015/04/14/free-the-bunnies-the-maddest-policies-in-the-green-manifesto-listed/#_@/HfGBIJCGcokX6g

These people are certifiably, batshit, barking-at-the-moon, insane. And so, therefore, is about 7% of our population. Scary stuff.

Flightpath

tyson said:

"I wish people would not package anti fox hunting into some wider kind of anti rural narrative - as if there is some kind of exterior motive for wanting it banned.
Fox hunting by hounds is vile, cruel, disgusting- a sport where an animal is hunted by a pack of dogs and ripped apart at the end. Even the Italians think its cruel- they use dogs for driving the animal out of it's cover, but they shoot the animal at the end and then eat it.
Fox hunting is just killing barbarically for killings sake."

I re-posting from earlier because I cannot for the life of me begin to understand why the Tories would want to resurrect this squalid activity- it serves no political purpose for them, and will not pass a HoC vote, even with a Tory majority of 50.
The only thing I can think of is that the pro hunting lobby is putting in some serious cash into the marginals- I know Blackwood in Oxford is a beneficiary.
Money buys politicians. Not quite a news story, but very dispiriting nevertheless.

Shoot? or rather wounding? That is humane? Its OK for a dog to hunt (and by your mark, terrify) but not kill?
What about poisoning snaring gassing? These are the alternatives.

Anyway, the law now is to hunt and then shoot.

If money buys politicians we should make trade unions illegal.

Scott_P

@MarcusDysch: Labour also just launched a minority manifesto, which includes pledge to protect #kosher and #halal slaughter, and teaching of modern Hebrew

Pong

TGOHF said:

Speaking of disgusting

http://order-order.com/2015/04/14/photo-exclusive-ed-miliband-picks-nose-on-train/#_@/y1-jVJWwd93WdA

You came onto the internet to post that?

Plato

A separate manifesto? Really? How peculiar.

Scott_P said:

@MarcusDysch: Labour also just launched a minority manifesto, which includes pledge to protect #kosher and #halal slaughter, and teaching of modern Hebrew

Sunil_Prasannan

UKIP's decline in ELBOW halted for the time being, as of Sunday:

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/587377968634318848

Flightpath

Richard_Nabavi said:

Rightly or wrongly, UKIP are yesterday's story. The SNP have taken their place in the media's attention.

The UK part of their name will become defunct if they have their way and bring about the election of a Labour/SNP government.
They have certainly been overtaken by events.

Pulpstar

Having a look at the various party apps

Can't find Labour one

Lib Dem one is a errm countdown clock

Conservative and UKIP ones have various on message stuff.

SNP one seems most complete, details meetings and canvassing and so forth.

Labour 0/10
Lib Dem 1/10
Conservative 6/10
UKIP 7/10
SNP 8/10.

Scott_P

Plato said:

A separate manifesto? Really? How peculiar.

Launched at a separate event, which the press were allegedly not invited to

Plato

This really is taking identity politics into a whole weird world.

Scott_P said:

Plato said:

A separate manifesto? Really? How peculiar.

Launched at a separate event, which the press were allegedly not invited to

Floater

Scott_P said:

@MarcusDysch: Labour also just launched a minority manifesto, which includes pledge to protect #kosher and #halal slaughter, and teaching of modern Hebrew

Wonder what Nick P makes of that (re slaughter)

Indigo

FPT:

JonCisBack said:

Indigo said:

Plato said:

I know a handful of both and Kippers don't seem to be at all shy.

Luckyguy1983 said:

I'm not denying the UKIP to Con. swing. However I do think there's a shy kipper tendency. And I don't think the shy kippers (if such a phenomenon exists) are red kippers. In my opinion, those people would be more likely to state their voting intention frankly. I think they'd be blue kippers stating their former preference for a quiet life. I still think they might go for UKIP in the ballot box.

Kippers that work in the media, in public service, or in other occupations where being right-on is part of the uniform, plus those who want to be school governors, or indeed foster children, will all be very very shy.

Why?

our local UKIP candidate is a Physics teacher in a local school.

UKIP couple have foster children removed from care
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-20474120

School governor told to resign 'because he had joined Ukip'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/educationnews/11229168/School-governor-told-to-resign-because-he-had-joined-Ukip.html

Scrapheap_as_was

Did I see a TNS poll out with a Tory lead of ** just ** 3% this morning?

Floater

TGOHF said:

Speaking of disgusting

http://order-order.com/2015/04/14/photo-exclusive-ed-miliband-picks-nose-on-train/#_@/y1-jVJWwd93WdA

Truly the son of Brown.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Floater, a mischievous fellow might contrast it with fox-hunting

Casino_Royale

tyson said:

"I wish people would not package anti fox hunting into some wider kind of anti rural narrative - as if there is some kind of exterior motive for wanting it banned.
Fox hunting by hounds is vile, cruel, disgusting- a sport where an animal is hunted by a pack of dogs and ripped apart at the end. Even the Italians think its cruel- they use dogs for driving the animal out of it's cover, but they shoot the animal at the end and then eat it.
Fox hunting is just killing barbarically for killings sake."

I re-posting from earlier because I cannot for the life of me begin to understand why the Tories would want to resurrect this squalid activity- it serves no political purpose for them, and will not pass a HoC vote, even with a Tory majority of 50.
The only thing I can think of is that the pro hunting lobby is putting in some serious cash into the marginals- I know Blackwood in Oxford is a beneficiary.
Money buys politicians. Not quite a news story, but very dispiriting nevertheless.

Dogs and wolves have hunted in packs for thousands of years, and still do so in the wild in the Canadian Yukon. Foxes do the same to small game, voles, rabbits and chickens.

What most anti-fox hunting people really object to is the idea of people they don't like enjoying it.

JohnLilburne

TCPoliticalBetting said:

UKIP are standing in almost as many council seats as the LDs

The Conservatives are contesting 93.26 per cent of seats
Labour are contesting 75.13 per cent
The Lib Dems are standing in 45.98 per cent…
…which is only slightly ahead of UKIP, who have candidates in 43.67 per cent of seats

http://www.conservativehome.com/localgovernment/2015/04/the-conservatives-are-contesting-93-per-cent-of-council-seats-labour-are-only-fighting-75-per-cent.html

In those seats where there are both local and parliamentary elections, it would be good to see some analysis to see if people split their ticket. We have a grand coalition on our council and it needs some opposition councillors, I am thinking of voting Tory in the GE and Kipper for the council.

Artist

If I was in UKIP's position I'd put all my resources into Thanet South, Thurrock, Boston & Skegness, Great Grimsby, Rochester & Strood, Clacton and Castle Point. Forget the rest.

Indigo

tyson said:

"I wish people would not package anti fox hunting into some wider kind of anti rural narrative - as if there is some kind of exterior motive for wanting it banned.
Fox hunting by hounds is vile, cruel, disgusting- a sport where an animal is hunted by a pack of dogs and ripped apart at the end. Even the Italians think its cruel- they use dogs for driving the animal out of it's cover, but they shoot the animal at the end and then eat it.
Fox hunting is just killing barbarically for killings sake."

I re-posting from earlier because I cannot for the life of me begin to understand why the Tories would want to resurrect this squalid activity- it serves no political purpose for them, and will not pass a HoC vote, even with a Tory majority of 50.
The only thing I can think of is that the pro hunting lobby is putting in some serious cash into the marginals- I know Blackwood in Oxford is a beneficiary.
Money buys politicians. Not quite a news story, but very dispiriting nevertheless.

Because they promised the Countryside Alliance, which provides a significant ground army for them in rural constituencies, that they would ?

Plato

Perhaps someone will create a religion based on hunting with hounds... Didn't some pranksters get Jedis recognised?

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Floater, a mischievous fellow might contrast it with fox-hunting

another_richard

Re constituency polls.

It would be good if there's was a question specifically asking whether the MP has personally affected the voting choice.

It would help seeing how much of a personal vote there is for the likes of Halfon and Rees-Mogg.

SouthamObserver

UKIP spent three or four years working hand in glove with parts of the press to fuel indignation about the EU and immigration. Now, though, UKIP does not have that. The press is interested in other stories and erstwhile UKIP cheerleaders want a Tory victory above all else. Farage, therefore, is an afterthought in a way that he was not during the Euro elections. This was always bound to happen.

Casino_Royale

Richard_Nabavi said:

Fenster said:

Hooray Henry's dressed up in silly clothes cheering when a fox gets pulled to death is not cool.

Well, that neatly demolishes tyson's statement that there is 'no exterior motive'.

I rest my case.

Fenster

Richard_Nabavi said:

Fenster said:

Hooray Henry's dressed up in silly clothes cheering when a fox gets pulled to death is not cool.

Well, that neatly demolishes tyson's statement that there is 'no exterior motive'.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Fenster, how do they handle foxes there?

Dogs mainly, prowling the land.

The foxes are clever, and they will test whether the chickens are secure but three dogs on site running free tends to scare the foxes away.

Bear in mind this is only a small farm with horses, chickens, ducks, goats etc.

The ban on fox hunting has made no difference to the amount of foxes. The hunts only ever killed the babies or old foxes anyway. Most of those dressed-up types did it for the adrenaline and the day out. Most of them are crap horse-riders.

A hunt isn't nice though. The dogs are wound up and intimidating and loud - my kids don't like it. The hunts still go out under the pretence that they aren't actually chasing foxes, but the dogs are menacing.

JohnLilburne

Sunil_Prasannan said:

UKIP's decline in ELBOW halted for the time being, as of Sunday:

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/587377968634318848

From the figures, I think the UKIP VI has firmed up a bit, apart from ICN (which is the Gold Standard again of course). The 2-week average had gone back over 14% again but has drifted back below - but the decline seems to have been arrested.

Casino_Royale

O/T - I think the Tory manifesto is as true blue as anyone could reasonably expect it to be under Cameron's leadership.

My question is whether I trust them to deliver, but it will get my vote.

richardDodd

EdM gets to shake a lot of peoples hands...after his bogey hunt .. disgusting.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Fenster, cheers for that answer.

How often do hunts take place?

Miss Plato, whilst a huge number claimed to be Jedi, I'm not sure it was officially recognised.

Beverley_C

Does anyone even expect UKIP to keep the seats that they already have? I know that the bookies seem to think so (based on Mike's graphic above) but fringe parties only do well between general elections, not in them.

Pulpstar

another_richard said:

Re constituency polls.

It would be good if there's was a question specifically asking whether the MP has personally affected the voting choice.

It would help seeing how much of a personal vote there is for the likes of Halfon and Rees-Mogg.

Mogg has a perfect storm of incumbency, a poor opponent, a good area (Bristol and surrounds have done well) and a personal vote I reckon.

Scott_P

Who is in charge here?

Jim Murphy says that he is “absolutely” confident the Scottish Labour party remains in charge of decision-making in Scotland after a difficult 24 hours when senior shadow cabinet ministers appeared to publicly contradict his spending plans.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2015/apr/14/election-2015-live-conservative-manifesto-david-cameron-right-to-buy

Tissue_Price

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Did I see a TNS poll out with a Tory lead of ** just ** 3% this morning?

2% (actually 1.7%, as I'm sure Justin will point out sooner or later).

http://www.tnsglobal.com/uk/press-release/election-race-close-but-public-think-tories-will-be-largest-party

Worth noting Ed's women problem as they back Cameron 35-31 #pbmemesrevisited

isam

TGOHF said:

tyson said:

Fox hunting by hounds is vile, cruel, disgusting- a sport where an animal is hunted by a pack of dogs and ripped apart at the end.

Meh it's a fox not an orphan - incosequential compared with e.g. war in Syria.

Cam believes in both!

Pulpstar

Mogg's swing may indicate half a Tory hope in Bath tbh.

JohnLilburne

Flightpath said:

tyson said:

"I wish people would not package anti fox hunting into some wider kind of anti rural narrative - as if there is some kind of exterior motive for wanting it banned.
Fox hunting by hounds is vile, cruel, disgusting- a sport where an animal is hunted by a pack of dogs and ripped apart at the end. Even the Italians think its cruel- they use dogs for driving the animal out of it's cover, but they shoot the animal at the end and then eat it.
Fox hunting is just killing barbarically for killings sake."

I re-posting from earlier because I cannot for the life of me begin to understand why the Tories would want to resurrect this squalid activity- it serves no political purpose for them, and will not pass a HoC vote, even with a Tory majority of 50.
The only thing I can think of is that the pro hunting lobby is putting in some serious cash into the marginals- I know Blackwood in Oxford is a beneficiary.
Money buys politicians. Not quite a news story, but very dispiriting nevertheless.

Shoot? or rather wounding? That is humane? Its OK for a dog to hunt (and by your mark, terrify) but not kill?
What about poisoning snaring gassing? These are the alternatives.

Anyway, the law now is to hunt and then shoot.

If money buys politicians we should make trade unions illegal.

Some rural hunts did exactly what you say the Italians do, the hounds flush the Fox which us then shot, the farmers following in Landies and on quadbikes. But that is banned as well.

Unfortunately, preying on other animals is to a certain extent cruel, but it is natural and what I, as a predator, do.

Plato

I'm impressed by the detail - it covers a lot of ground. Somethings are pork-barrel, but its an election.

Casino_Royale said:

O/T - I think the Tory manifesto is as true blue as anyone could reasonably expect it to be under Cameron's leadership.

My question is whether I trust them to deliver, but it will get my vote.

Grandiose

Beverley_C said:

Does anyone even expect UKIP to keep the seats that they already have? I know that the bookies seem to think so (based on Mike's graphic above) but fringe parties only do well between general elections, not in them.

Clacton will be held easily. Rochester and Strood maybe less so... I think it's probably their 3rd seat, maybe 4th (Thurrock being the difference).

Brom

Artist said:

If I was in UKIP's position I'd put all my resources into Thanet South, Thurrock, Boston & Skegness, Great Grimsby, Rochester & Strood, Clacton and Castle Point. Forget the rest.

Yes i get the impression that is what is happening, or at least you can read a lot into Farage's campaign path. Perhaps add Dudley North (post Tory candidate sacandal) and Great Yarmouth to the list. I don't think they will win in Rotherham/Rother Valley, we saw in last year's Police elections that Labour have a real stranglehold there despite the local issues.

Thurrock and South Thanet look very promising to go with Clacton. I really think Castle Point is on course to go Purple but reckon Boston/Grimsby may be near misses. Rochester is on a knife edge.

Fenster

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Fenster, cheers for that answer.

How often do hunts take place?

Miss Plato, whilst a huge number claimed to be Jedi, I'm not sure it was officially recognised.</blockquote

I don't know to be honest, last time I saw them all out was Boxing Day. They look impressive, all togged-up on their big horses and surrounded by loads of Beagles and Terriers, but it is intimidating. I wouldn't want to be a fox.

Incidentally I took the kids to Ruperra Castle last year (that's a good day out, trying to find the old, decrepit castle in the maze of woods and land) and there was a hunt assembled there. The noise of the dogs was scary.

I would bet my house on it they were out to kill. That was early December time.

TheWatcher

Fenster said:

tyson said:

"I wish people would not package anti fox hunting into some wider kind of anti rural narrative - as if there is some kind of exterior motive for wanting it banned.
Fox hunting by hounds is vile, cruel, disgusting- a sport where an animal is hunted by a pack of dogs and ripped apart at the end. Even the Italians think its cruel- they use dogs for driving the animal out of it's cover, but they shoot the animal at the end and then eat it.
Fox hunting is just killing barbarically for killings sake."

I re-posting from earlier because I cannot for the life of me begin to understand why the Tories would want to resurrect this squalid activity- it serves no political purpose for them, and will not pass a HoC vote, even with a Tory majority of 50.
The only thing I can think of is that the pro hunting lobby is putting in some serious cash into the marginals- I know Blackwood in Oxford is a beneficiary.
Money buys politicians. Not quite a news story, but very dispiriting nevertheless.

Hooray Henry's dressed up in silly clothes cheering when a fox gets pulled to death is not cool.

Good old Class War. Many hunt supporters and riders aren't Toffs, but ordinary working people.

JohnLilburne

JohnLilburne said:

Flightpath said:

tyson said:

"I wish people would not package anti fox hunting into some wider kind of anti rural narrative - as if there is some kind of exterior motive for wanting it banned.
Fox hunting by hounds is vile, cruel, disgusting- a sport where an animal is hunted by a pack of dogs and ripped apart at the end. Even the Italians think its cruel- they use dogs for driving the animal out of it's cover, but they shoot the animal at the end and then eat it.
Fox hunting is just killing barbarically for killings sake."

I re-posting from earlier because I cannot for the life of me begin to understand why the Tories would want to resurrect this squalid activity- it serves no political purpose for them, and will not pass a HoC vote, even with a Tory majority of 50.
The only thing I can think of is that the pro hunting lobby is putting in some serious cash into the marginals- I know Blackwood in Oxford is a beneficiary.
Money buys politicians. Not quite a news story, but very dispiriting nevertheless.

Shoot? or rather wounding? That is humane? Its OK for a dog to hunt (and by your mark, terrify) but not kill?
What about poisoning snaring gassing? These are the alternatives.

Anyway, the law now is to hunt and then shoot.

If money buys politicians we should make trade unions illegal.

Some rural hunts did exactly what you say the Italians do, the hounds flush the Fox which us then shot, the farmers following in Landies and on quadbikes. But that is banned as well.

Unfortunately, preying on other animals is to a certain extent cruel, but it is natural and what I, as a predator, do.

Obvs I should be replying to Tyson rather than Flightpath there.

richardDodd

If we can allow Halal and Kosher methods of slow death then fox hunting seems to be on a par.

Beverley_C

To hell with foxes - it is ants that set me off. Industrious little creatures and very admirable in their tenacity, but I do wish that they would be busy somewhere faraway from my kitchen and herb garden.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Fenster, cheers, again.

Never heard of Ruperra Castle, but sounds an interesting place.

Did you hear about Warwick Castle's* trebuchet burning down an ancient boathouse?

*I think it was Warwick Castle.

Plato

The quick death of being caught and mauled by a dozen dogs sounds more humane that being hung upside-down and drained of your blood until you pass out and die.

richardDodd said:

If we can allow Halal and Kosher methods of slow death then fox hunting seems to be on a par.

isam

Beverley_C said:

To hell with foxes - it is ants that set me off. Industrious little creatures and very admirable in their tenacity, but I do wish that they would be busy somewhere faraway from my kitchen and herb garden.

They probably think the same of us when people tread on their mates

Plato

Mine are slugs.

Beverley_C said:

To hell with foxes - it is ants that set me off. Industrious little creatures and very admirable in their tenacity, but I do wish that they would be busy somewhere faraway from my kitchen and herb garden.

AlastairMeeks

Beverley_C said:

To hell with foxes - it is ants that set me off. Industrious little creatures and very admirable in their tenacity, but I do wish that they would be busy somewhere faraway from my kitchen and herb garden.

Riding on the back of a hedgehog would lack the exhilaration of leaping a hedge on the back of a field hunter.

Morris_Dancer

Miss Plato, isn't that The 100 you're thinking of?

JosiasJessop

tyson said:

"I wish people would not package anti fox hunting into some wider kind of anti rural narrative - as if there is some kind of exterior motive for wanting it banned.
Fox hunting by hounds is vile, cruel, disgusting- a sport where an animal is hunted by a pack of dogs and ripped apart at the end. Even the Italians think its cruel- they use dogs for driving the animal out of it's cover, but they shoot the animal at the end and then eat it.
Fox hunting is just killing barbarically for killings sake."

I re-posting from earlier because I cannot for the life of me begin to understand why the Tories would want to resurrect this squalid activity- it serves no political purpose for them, and will not pass a HoC vote, even with a Tory majority of 50.
The only thing I can think of is that the pro hunting lobby is putting in some serious cash into the marginals- I know Blackwood in Oxford is a beneficiary.
Money buys politicians. Not quite a news story, but very dispiriting nevertheless.

How about recreational fishing? Many people think it is vile, disgusting and cruel (even (or especially) if the fish are thrown back.

http://www.peta.org/issues/animals-in-entertainment/cruel-sports/fishing/

Surely your deeply 'moral' stance will embrace a ban on fishing?

Casino_Royale

Pulpstar said:

Mogg's swing may indicate half a Tory hope in Bath tbh.

Tipped by a certain pb.com poster a few weeks ago:

https://royaleleseaux.wordpress.com/2015/03/17/libdemgeddon-you-dont-want-to-miss-a-thing/

AlastairMeeks

Plato said:

The quick death of being caught and mauled by a dozen dogs sounds more humane that being hung upside-down and drained of your blood until you pass out and die.

richardDodd said:

If we can allow Halal and Kosher methods of slow death then fox hunting seems to be on a par.

I take it that you recall the threads on AV only too well then.

edmundintokyo

Beverley_C said:

Does anyone even expect UKIP to keep the seats that they already have? I know that the bookies seem to think so (based on Mike's graphic above) but fringe parties only do well between general elections, not in them.

There aren't a lot of recent data points on how their incumbents do once they've got a seat, though. I guess the closest we have is SDP/LibDem by-election wins, which they haven't always held, but they've held quite a few.

Plato

Oh, haven't watched that yet - I'm ODing on US 00s reality TV and 90s true crime.

Morris_Dancer said:

Miss Plato, isn't that The 100 you're thinking of?

HurstLlama

Beverley_C said:

To hell with foxes - it is ants that set me off. Industrious little creatures and very admirable in their tenacity, but I do wish that they would be busy somewhere faraway from my kitchen and herb garden.

Curry powder is your answer, Mrs. C. Herself sprinkles it liberally around areas that she wants to keep ant free and the little buggers don't cross the barriers.

Plato

Now they did make my blood run cold.

I think that was the first time I used the *slashes wrists* comment.

antifrank said:

Plato said:

The quick death of being caught and mauled by a dozen dogs sounds more humane that being hung upside-down and drained of your blood until you pass out and die.

richardDodd said:

If we can allow Halal and Kosher methods of slow death then fox hunting seems to be on a par.

I take it that you recall the threads on AV only too well then.

Beverley_C

Fenster said:

.... but it is intimidating. I wouldn't want to be a fox.

Neither would I.

Although I have never hunted foxes (I do not like horses) I do wonder if you think that foxes die a peaceful natural death, sitting in a rocking chair with little foxes sitting round Grandpa Fox and a roaring fire in the corner?

Most foxes have a very miserable existence and the hounds are probably quicker than Sarcoptes scabiei which can kill foxes in droves and no one is banning that.

Morris_Dancer

Miss Plato, ah.

I rather like it. Some (especially early on) of the first series is a bit too nice, but by the second series most episodes start with a violence warning, which is usually a good sign.

Fenster

TheWatcher said:

Fenster said:

tyson said:

"I wish people would not package anti fox hunting into some wider kind of anti rural narrative - as if there is some kind of exterior motive for wanting it banned.
Fox hunting by hounds is vile, cruel, disgusting- a sport where an animal is hunted by a pack of dogs and ripped apart at the end. Even the Italians think its cruel- they use dogs for driving the animal out of it's cover, but they shoot the animal at the end and then eat it.
Fox hunting is just killing barbarically for killings sake."

I re-posting from earlier because I cannot for the life of me begin to understand why the Tories would want to resurrect this squalid activity- it serves no political purpose for them, and will not pass a HoC vote, even with a Tory majority of 50.
The only thing I can think of is that the pro hunting lobby is putting in some serious cash into the marginals- I know Blackwood in Oxford is a beneficiary.
Money buys politicians. Not quite a news story, but very dispiriting nevertheless.

Hooray Henry's dressed up in silly clothes cheering when a fox gets pulled to death is not cool.

Good old Class War. Many hunt supporters and riders aren't Toffs, but ordinary working people.

I assure you, there's no class war here, despite me being a valley boy. I'm no Labour fan, at all. And I agree that Halal slaughter should be outlawed too.

I'm just a hypocrite who gets joyed by seeing new-born lambs scooting round a field yet comments on how tasty they are when I eat them.

Fox hunts are intimidating and not very nice, in my opinion. Place yourself out in the wilderness when one comes by. It isn't pretty.

@Morris Dancer - no, not heard of the Warwick Castle thing. My little boy when through a major 'haunted houses' fascination which was great, because I got to walk him and the dog to the most curious places - Ruperra being one of them. Wonderful old castle, protected now because of the rare species of bats that live inside.

SouthamObserver

"What most anti-fox hunting people really object to is the idea of people they don't like enjoying it."

I am not sure that is true. There have always been large majorities in favour of a ban and my impression is that's because most people feel it is cruel, not because who does it. And it is cruel - the terrified fox is hunted down and torn to shreds by a pack of dogs.

However, as someone once said: that's life. Foxes are a pest and they have to be dealt with. Quite frankly, how that happens is not a big issue for me. I used to take my father in law to follow the Warwickshire Hunt when he was alive. It was fantastic and clearly gave a lot of people a lot of pleasure. For me, that is the most important aspect to this. Watching the horses and hounds stream across a hilly green field to a wood or a copse is a wonderful sight, but a meaningless one if the fox is not involved. It's a link back to our past. It is a part of England. And that is more important than how a fox lives the last hour or so of its life.

JohnLilburne

Plato said:

The quick death of being caught and mauled by a dozen dogs sounds more humane that being hung upside-down and drained of your blood until you pass out and die.

richardDodd said:

If we can allow Halal and Kosher methods of slow death then fox hunting seems to be on a par.

They are probably on a par, when the carotid artery is cut through, blood pressure in the brain should fall rapidly. To be fair, I think if halal and shechita slaughter us done correctly it should be almost as humane as pre-stunning which is quite probably neither as instantaneous as we'd like it to be or 100% effective.

isam

The UKIP spread market was artificially high in the first place to cater for the risk of defections/black swans etc

Obviously as each day passes without those events, the price should fall

Beverley_C

HurstLlama said:

Curry powder is your answer, Mrs. C. Herself sprinkles it liberally around areas that she wants to keep ant free and the little buggers don't cross the barriers.

Thank you Mr Llama

I have some sort of ant-powder from B&Q that seems to kill them in droves. If I run out I will buy some curry powder if Waitrose stocks such a thing.

:-)

Scott_P

@martinstabe: Edinburgh West should be an interesting count. #ge2015 http://t.co/9y6p5P5l1H http://t.co/Pjo9ZEvz3w

I have had a bet on Edinburgh West as part of my "Scottish Surge" portfolio

Pulpstar

isam said:

The UKIP spread market was artificially high in the first place to cater for the risk of defections/black swans etc

Obviously as each day passes without those events, the price should fall

I think selling at 3.5 for any sort of substantial figure is playing with fire to be honest.

I'm not a buyer at 5.5 mind.

Luckyguy1983

JohnLilburne said:

Plato said:

The quick death of being caught and mauled by a dozen dogs sounds more humane that being hung upside-down and drained of your blood until you pass out and die.

richardDodd said:

If we can allow Halal and Kosher methods of slow death then fox hunting seems to be on a par.

They are probably on a par, when the carotid artery is cut through, blood pressure in the brain should fall rapidly. To be fair, I think if halal and shechita slaughter us done correctly it should be almost as humane as pre-stunning which is quite probably neither as instantaneous as we'd like it to be or 100% effective.

I have a friend who worked on a salmon farm, and he tells stories of things still being 'alive' that make you cringe. One time a salmon had gone through being topped and tailed, opened up, all the guts got rid off, and still jumped off a table! The girl who it happened to ran out screaming never to return. It's not very nice -that's the reality of what we eat and how we live.

FrancisUrquhart

John Pienaar really has totally lost any pretense of balance. After yesterday's "I was shocked and surprised just how good the things Ed said were", today I flick the radio on to him making wild claims that if the Tories get in there will be "1000's kicked out of their jobs, 1000's kicked out of their homes".

JosiasJessop

Fenster said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Fenster, cheers for that answer.

How often do hunts take place?

Miss Plato, whilst a huge number claimed to be Jedi, I'm not sure it was officially recognised.

My only connection with fox hunting is seeing them whilst out walking. On one lovely occasion I walked through a farmyard where they were congregating beforehand. After a few questions - I guessed to see if I was a sab - a glass of something pleasantly alcoholic was thrust into my hand and I ended up chatting for quite a while.

But I have very fond memories of seeing horses in full flight on hunts; mostly distant, but on a few occasions closer. Horses are magnificent creatures, and especially whilst running in a group. (Despite this I've only ever been to the races once).

Each to their own, I guess.

weejonnie

Plato said:

The quick death of being caught and mauled by a dozen dogs sounds more humane that being hung upside-down and drained of your blood until you pass out and die.

richardDodd said:

If we can allow Halal and Kosher methods of slow death then fox hunting seems to be on a par.

Not sure if it applies to foxes but in humans when severely traumatised, compared to those that aren't, large levels of pain-numbing chemicals (Endorphins/ Serotonin) are released.

Pulpstar

Scott_P said:

@martinstabe: Edinburgh West should be an interesting count. #ge2015 http://t.co/9y6p5P5l1H http://t.co/Pjo9ZEvz3w

I have had a bet on Edinburgh West as part of my "Scottish Surge" portfolio

A far far better value loser than second favourite Labour there.

Beverley_C

antifrank said:

Riding on the back of a hedgehog would lack the exhilaration of leaping a hedge on the back of a field hunter.

The mind boggles... mind you, after a hedgehog, so would one's bottom

Plato said:

Mine are slugs.

I have a ritual I call "The Great Slug Massacre" that happens each year to keep my herbs (particularly the Basil) safe. This year's has yet to commence.

isam said:

They probably think the same of us when people tread on their mates

Err.. that is me in trouble. Again.

---

re the Halal / Kosher thing: I think that those "rituals" are utterly barbaric. Food animals should die as quickly as possible.

Plato

Only a bathful of gin would calm me down if someone wanted to bleed me out.

weejonnie said:

Plato said:

The quick death of being caught and mauled by a dozen dogs sounds more humane that being hung upside-down and drained of your blood until you pass out and die.

richardDodd said:

If we can allow Halal and Kosher methods of slow death then fox hunting seems to be on a par.

Not sure if it applies to foxes but in humans when severely traumatised, compared to those that aren't, large levels of pain-numbing chemicals (Endorphins/ Serotonin) are released.

weejonnie

FrancisUrquhart said:

John Pienaar really has totally lost any pretense of balance. After yesterday's "I was shocked and surprised just how good the things Ed said were", today I flick the radio on to him making wild claims that if the Tories get in there will be "1000's kicked out of their jobs, 1000's kicked out of their homes".

Obviously the BBC canteen hasn't ordered the champagne on a sell or return basis - so they are trying desperately hard to ensure that the BBC staff are inclined to buy it on May 8th.

Morris_Dancer

Miss Plato, but wouldn't that sting?

Tissue_Price

Pulpstar said:

Scott_P said:

@martinstabe: Edinburgh West should be an interesting count. #ge2015 http://t.co/9y6p5P5l1H http://t.co/Pjo9ZEvz3w

I have had a bet on Edinburgh West as part of my "Scottish Surge" portfolio

A far far better value loser than second favourite Labour there.

I have the SNP winning it pretty easily on 35% or so.

Monkeys

Beverley_C said:

To hell with foxes - it is ants that set me off. Industrious little creatures and very admirable in their tenacity, but I do wish that they would be busy somewhere faraway from my kitchen and herb garden.

Supposedly something like 20 percent of ants are unemployed.

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2003/11/16/national/20-of-worker-ants-idle-lazybones-study/

TheScreamingEagles

antifrank said:

Plato said:

The quick death of being caught and mauled by a dozen dogs sounds more humane that being hung upside-down and drained of your blood until you pass out and die.

richardDodd said:

If we can allow Halal and Kosher methods of slow death then fox hunting seems to be on a par.

I take it that you recall the threads on AV only too well then.

One of the joys another hung parliament is that I expect electoral reform to be back on the agenda.

I'm already salivating at the prospect of writing the threads on will the Lib Dems agree on a coalition with party x in exchange for multi member STV

isam

Pulpstar said:

isam said:

The UKIP spread market was artificially high in the first place to cater for the risk of defections/black swans etc

Obviously as each day passes without those events, the price should fall

I think selling at 3.5 for any sort of substantial figure is playing with fire to be honest.

I'm not a buyer at 5.5 mind.

I worked as a spread dealer/trader for 14 years.. and I don't really like spread betting!

Plato

I think I've got everything in a cut - but never alcohol from memory. Clearly I don't cook when drunk! Or was so drunk I don't remember...

Potato juice kills.

Morris_Dancer said:

Miss Plato, but wouldn't that sting?