I think Mr Herdson neglects the polling on the views of England on an SNP-propped up government...
What does the polling say specifically that David Herdson is missing? Is there some polling the validates some argument like, "Don't vote Labour, because they'll have to rely on the SNP if not enough people vote for them"?
Yes, David is making the point that Ashcroft found in polls - potential Labour supporters don't see that not voting Labour is going to reduce the risk, if it's a risk.
The Sturgeon story with its heated denials is going to be obscure to most people, and I doubt if it will have much effect in England, but it feeds the sense of unease that Labour in Scotland is trying to encourage about the effect of replacing lots of Labour MPs with lots of Nationalists. Sturgeon will clearly see it as unhelpful, and tactically it's a mistake for the Tory press to go big on it if their primary motive is to prevent a Labour Government.
It's not aimed at potential Labour voters. It's aimed at potential UKIP voters. And so far it's been far more effective than I expected.
Don't understand that at all, and what on earth is your metric for effectiveness on potential kippers?
The argument is that Kippers will be more concerned about a Lab-SNP pact than Labour voters and that it might be sufficient to tip them back into the Tory camp.
I think I've seen some polling suggesting that Kippers were most worried about the SNP having significant influence over the next government than anyone else?
Extraordinary story by the Mail. They have just repeated their story of last week but made the headlines more lurid adding that Freeman is a tax avoider which the article doesn't back up. I really can't imagine why he isn't suing them. There is something ugly about Tory cheerleaders.
Dacre needs to take a long hard look at himself. The Mail is rapidly drowning in a torrent of its own bile.
The paper that has supported fascism for over 80 years , Dacre is just following that tradition .
I thought your beef about them was that they pointed out (correctly) that Cyril Smith was an active paedophile. Is that a fascist position?
Clearly Cyril Smith is dead and cannot sue you otherwise a coward like you would not have dared to post that .
David Icke posted things like that for years and he didn't get sued, he out Saville as a necrophiliac a long time before he died, and outed Smith on several occasions.
To be honest I find your post absolutely disgusting.
You are entitled to your opinion , just as I am . IMHO anyone who quotes David Icke in a positive way is in need of a brain transplant .
Extraordinary story by the Mail. They have just repeated their story of last week but made the headlines more lurid adding that Freeman is a tax avoider which the article doesn't back up. I really can't imagine why he isn't suing them. There is something ugly about Tory cheerleaders.
Dacre needs to take a long hard look at himself. The Mail is rapidly drowning in a torrent of its own bile.
The paper that has supported fascism for over 80 years , Dacre is just following that tradition .
I thought your beef about them was that they pointed out (correctly) that Cyril Smith was an active paedophile. Is that a fascist position?
Clearly Cyril Smith is dead and cannot sue you otherwise a coward like you would not have dared to post that .
Extraordinary story by the Mail. They have just repeated their story of last week but made the headlines more lurid adding that Freeman is a tax avoider which the article doesn't back up. I really can't imagine why he isn't suing them. There is something ugly about Tory cheerleaders.
Dacre needs to take a long hard look at himself. The Mail is rapidly drowning in a torrent of its own bile.
I think its more likely he will take a look at his 10m views and his share holders will tell him to carry on with what he is going. I guess he could trying sanctimony and self-righteousness, but then he might have 170k readers like The Guardian, who knows, he might even have to set up a trust in a tax haven to stay in business.
Extraordinary story by the Mail. They have just repeated their story of last week but made the headlines more lurid adding that Freeman is a tax avoider which the article doesn't back up. I really can't imagine why he isn't suing them. There is something ugly about Tory cheerleaders.
Dacre needs to take a long hard look at himself. The Mail is rapidly drowning in a torrent of its own bile.
The paper that has supported fascism for over 80 years , Dacre is just following that tradition .
I thought your beef about them was that they pointed out (correctly) that Cyril Smith was an active paedophile. Is that a fascist position?
Clearly Cyril Smith is dead and cannot sue you otherwise a coward like you would not have dared to post that .
David Icke posted things like that for years and he didn't get sued, he out Saville as a necrophiliac a long time before he died, and outed Smith on several occasions.
To be honest I find your post absolutely disgusting.
You are entitled to your opinion , just as I am . IMHO anyone who quotes David Icke in a positive way is in need of a brain transplant .
Even though he was proved right over Savile?
The bloke is a complete loon I agree but you cannot deny he was right over Saville.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 31st March Projection) :
Con 313 (-3) .. Lab 244 (+2) .. LibDem 30 (NC) .. SNP 36 (NC) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 4 (+1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 13 seats short of a majority ......................................................................................
>blockquote>
TODAYS FIRST ADDED BJESUS
4.4.15 LAB 292 (292) CON 271(272) LD 30(30) UKIP 2(2) Others 55(54) (Ed is crap is PM) ADDED BJESUS (Additional Debate Driven Election Drilldown Big John Electoral Services Uniform Swing)
On topic, The Tories have hit 36-37 with ICM, Comres (phone), Yougov and Opinium at some point in the last month or so, as well as Ashcroft who is supposed to be using Populus Phone Poll methodology.
So job half done, according to most of those with a GE track record.
The risk to Labour comes in the Opposition Debate. If, by some small miracle Caroline Lucas replaces Natalie Bennett, Labour could very quickly end up down at 30.
I'm looking for good constituency bets on the Tories to partially hedge my massive position on Labour most seats. I just keep laying and laying the Tories and its getting a bit big!
Any ideas where Tories odds look good value?
Also anyone checked the implied seats totals from bookies odds recently?
I'm assuming backing the Tories in individual seats with Labour most seats is the best approach- hopefully this disparity still exists!
Extraordinary story by the Mail. They have just repeated their story of last week but made the headlines more lurid adding that Freeman is a tax avoider which the article doesn't back up. I really can't imagine why he isn't suing them. There is something ugly about Tory cheerleaders.
Dacre needs to take a long hard look at himself. The Mail is rapidly drowning in a torrent of its own bile.
The paper that has supported fascism for over 80 years , Dacre is just following that tradition .
Given that in the thirties the body count of facism was in thousands and the communists in the millions it would have been an entirely rational and morally defensible position to support the significantly lesser of two evils.
On topic, The Tories have hit 36-37 with ICM, Comres (phone), Yougov and Opinium at some point in the last month or so, as well as Ashcroft who is supposed to be using Populus Phone Poll methodology.
So job half done, according to most of those with a GE track record.
The risk to Labour comes in the Opposition Debate. If, by some small miracle Caroline Lucas replaces Natalie Bennett, Labour could very quickly end up down at 30.
Miliband v Farage, Lucas, Sturgeon.
Bennett is Miliband's saviour.
If Lucas gets subbed for Bennett, what chance Salmond gets subbed for Sturgeon? That would be a really painful night for Ed....
Extraordinary story by the Mail. They have just repeated their story of last week but made the headlines more lurid adding that Freeman is a tax avoider which the article doesn't back up. I really can't imagine why he isn't suing them. There is something ugly about Tory cheerleaders.
Dacre needs to take a long hard look at himself. The Mail is rapidly drowning in a torrent of its own bile.
I think its more likely he will take a look at his 10m views and his share holders will tell him to carry on with what he is going. I guess he could trying sanctimony and self-righteousness, but then he might have 170k readers like The Guardian, who knows, he might even have to set up a trust in a tax haven to stay in business.
I enjoy the Mail online, though Adblock makes it even better.
Under its plan, any bank or building society that offered such an ISA would be required to invest the money in housing.
This would unlock £5bn to invest in a Future Homes Investment Fund to build 125,000 new homes between 2015 and 2020, according to Mr Miliband, and a Labour government would underwrite the investment.
Of course it all depends on the terms of the investment, but fundamentally banks should not be in the business of making principal investments with depositors' money.
I suspect, though, that Miliband is just expecting them to stick a chunk of money into a fund to let him spend it.
The net result - of course - is that no banks will offer this kind of ISA because the strings make it fundamentally unattractive business for them (cash ISAs simply aren't that profitable)
Hence Miliband's expected source of funds disappears in a puff of smoke. Net result is either his pledge can't be met, or he has to meet it by additional borrowing over his baseline
This neatly highlights my big concern about Miliband: it's all these nice sounding wheezes that don't event pass the first review without being found out. I can only see two options:
1. He doesn't realise they won't work - i.e. he is incompetent 2. He doesn't care they won't work provided they win him the election - i.e. he is disingenuous
Is there a third option? Because I don't want a incompetent or a liar as a PM.
Extraordinary story by the Mail. They have just repeated their story of last week but made the headlines more lurid adding that Freeman is a tax avoider which the article doesn't back up. I really can't imagine why he isn't suing them. There is something ugly about Tory cheerleaders.
Dacre needs to take a long hard look at himself. The Mail is rapidly drowning in a torrent of its own bile.
The paper that has supported fascism for over 80 years , Dacre is just following that tradition .
I thought your beef about them was that they pointed out (correctly) that Cyril Smith was an active paedophile. Is that a fascist position?
Clearly Cyril Smith is dead and cannot sue you otherwise a coward like you would not have dared to post that .
You're really a Cyril Smith defender?
A Cyril Smith defender exists?
Wonders never cease.
Mark will always defend against what he perceives as an attack on the LibDems and its predecessors.
"On topic, The Tories have hit 36-37 with ICM, Comres (phone), Yougov and Opinium at some point in the last month or so, as well as Ashcroft who is supposed to be using Populus Phone Poll methodology.
So job half done, according to most of those with a GE track record.
The risk to Labour comes in the Opposition Debate. If, by some small miracle Caroline Lucas replaces Natalie Bennett, Labour could very quickly end up down at 30."
I remember when you first started posting and you appeared to be a new PB psephologist who are always the most worthwhile reads on here. But since then you've revealed yourself as just another Tory cheerleading fruitcake of which there are already far too many
I think Mr Herdson neglects the polling on the views of England on an SNP-propped up government...
What does the polling say specifically that David Herdson is missing? Is there some polling the validates some argument like, "Don't vote Labour, because they'll have to rely on the SNP if not enough people vote for them"?
Yes, David is making the point that Ashcroft found in polls - potential Labour supporters don't see that not voting Labour is going to reduce the risk, if it's a risk.
The Sturgeon story with its heated denials is going to be obscure to most people, and I doubt if it will have much effect in England, but it feeds the sense of unease that Labour in Scotland is trying to encourage about the effect of replacing lots of Labour MPs with lots of Nationalists. Sturgeon will clearly see it as unhelpful, and tactically it's a mistake for the Tory press to go big on it if their primary motive is to prevent a Labour Government.
It's not aimed at potential Labour voters. It's aimed at potential UKIP voters. And so far it's been far more effective than I expected.
Don't understand that at all, and what on earth is your metric for effectiveness on potential kippers?
There is a cohort of voters who aren't warm on the current Conservative leadership who have been thinking about voting for UKIP. This group responds particularly virulently to the idea of Scotland being given more money. The idea of a Labour/SNP alliance fills them with loathing.
Anecdotally I have had several such voters raise this spontaneously with me. And in the polls UKIP recently have been drifting down a bit while the Conservatives have been climbing a bit. Correlation does not equal causation, I accept.
You're correct. Among my friends and acquaintances are plenty who dislike Cameron, would happily vote UKIP in secondary elections, but will vote Conservative to keep out Labour/SNP.
I think Mr Herdson neglects the polling on the views of England on an SNP-propped up government...
What does the polling say specifically that David Herdson is missing? Is there some polling the validates some argument like, "Don't vote Labour, because they'll have to rely on the SNP if not enough people vote for them"?
Yes, David is making the point that Ashcroft found in polls - potential Labour supporters don't see that not voting Labour is going to reduce the risk, if it's a risk.
The Sturgeon story with its heated denials is going to be obscure to most people, and I doubt if it will have much effect in England, but it feeds the sense of unease that Labour in Scotland is trying to encourage about the effect of replacing lots of Labour MPs with lots of Nationalists. Sturgeon will clearly see it as unhelpful, and tactically it's a mistake for the Tory press to go big on it if their primary motive is to prevent a Labour Government.
It's not aimed at potential Labour voters. It's aimed at potential UKIP voters. And so far it's been far more effective than I expected.
Don't understand that at all, and what on earth is your metric for effectiveness on potential kippers?
The argument is that Kippers will be more concerned about a Lab-SNP pact than Labour voters and that it might be sufficient to tip them back into the Tory camp.
I think I've seen some polling suggesting that Kippers were most worried about the SNP having significant influence over the next government than anyone else?
Sorry Charles, no we're not!
You may not be, but then you are one of the 21% of UKIP voters who are okay with it. 75% are opposed. (The Tories are 12% ok, 86% opposed, Labour 44% ok, 51% opposed)
You gotta love Labour's method of campaigning, where the short hand they can give to journalists and voters is far removed from the actual policy.
"We will spend £5bn on new houses" - translation: using money from the Tory Help to Buy ISA we will ask the banks very nicely if this could perhaps be spent on building houses
"We will balance the books" - translation: the current account will be balanced, but this will happen anyway by the end of the parliament thanks to a growing economy, and billions will continue to be borrowed for "investment"
"We will increase the minimum wage" - translation: it will go up slower than inflation and we don't have direct control over the NMW anyway so can't promise any more than this sorry
"We will end zero hours contracts" - translation: sorry the government got there first on this and banned exclusive contracts so we are left with merely mentioning the evil zero hours contracts at every opportunity and will do other small things that people won't take up anyway
What did we actually learn from the debate that we did not know already? Frankly I think the answer is a sweet fat zero. Anoraks might pick over this or that, but I doubt it has made much difference. I should think a lot of the audience switched off long before the second half. It was a as dull as ditch water.
"On topic, The Tories have hit 36-37 with ICM, Comres (phone), Yougov and Opinium at some point in the last month or so, as well as Ashcroft who is supposed to be using Populus Phone Poll methodology.
So job half done, according to most of those with a GE track record.
The risk to Labour comes in the Opposition Debate. If, by some small miracle Caroline Lucas replaces Natalie Bennett, Labour could very quickly end up down at 30."
I remember when you first started posting and you appeared to be a new PB psephologist who are always the most worthwhile reads on here. But since then you've revealed yourself as just another Tory cheerleading fruitcake of which there are already far too many
Quote : it means there is political leaking coming from the upper echelons of the civil service. Not only are they leaking, they aren’t even doing it well.
That said, civil servants not being neutral is not news. Wasn't Damian McBride technically a civil servant?
Mr. P, sounds like Miliband thinks he's sufficiently buggered up energy, and is now looking for a new sector to damage.
Edited extra bit: Dr. Spyn, I can see why that will make the Mail cheer, but how is it to work?
I do think Cameron needs to be slapped around the head and neck with a large haddock until the vaguest notion of how the bloody internet works is beaten into him.
Mr. Owls, that seems quite an odd thing for her to say. Over the telephone. To a Frenchman.
I'm sure she might prefer a Conservative Government, but I'd be surprised if she said as such, in that way, to that diplomat.
On the other hand, it is a bit of a perfect storm of prejudice - to have no legs this story assumes both a Scot and French diplomat are not lying.... What are the odds of that?
@SkyNewsBreak: Labour leader Ed #Miliband says the claims that Nicola #Sturgeon secretly backs David Cameron as Prime Minister are "damning revelations"
Quote : it means there is political leaking coming from the upper echelons of the civil service. Not only are they leaking, they aren’t even doing it well.
I hadn't realised that the French Ambassador had denied it as well.
I know he's French, and a diplomat, but it would be unusual for someone in his position to lie openly
Quote : it means there is political leaking coming from the upper echelons of the civil service. Not only are they leaking, they aren’t even doing it well.
Story still the leading the Telegraph website - I guess Nicolas writs are en route ? Or it's true.
I see a guy on death row for 30 years was freed recently, and it wasn't even something like new DNA testing techniques which was behind it. Poor bugger.
Quote : it means there is political leaking coming from the upper echelons of the civil service. Not only are they leaking, they aren’t even doing it well.
I hadn't realised that the French Ambassador had denied it as well.
I know he's French, and a diplomat, but it would be unusual for someone in his position to lie openly
He hasn't denied that she said Ed wasn't up to being PM. A non denial.
@SkyNewsBreak: Labour leader Ed #Miliband says the claims that Nicola #Sturgeon secretly backs David Cameron as Prime Minister are "damning revelations"
@SkyNewsBreak: Labour leader Ed #Miliband says the claims that Nicola #Sturgeon secretly backs David Cameron as Prime Minister are "damning revelations"
Well that's just ensured Ed a nice easy ride from Nicola in the next debate....
Hur hur hur.... Has anybody actually briefed Ed about this story?
Quote : it means there is political leaking coming from the upper echelons of the civil service. Not only are they leaking, they aren’t even doing it well.
I hadn't realised that the French Ambassador had denied it as well.
I know he's French, and a diplomat, but it would be unusual for someone in his position to lie openly
He hasn't denied that she said Ed wasn't up to being PM. A non denial.
No: it's perfectly possible in the world of Scottish politics to think that Ed isn't up to the job but still prefer him to Cameron
Mr. kle4, saw that on the news last night. It was a disgraceful travesty of justice.
As well as his unjust imprisonment for 30 years, the families of the victims now have far less chance of the killer(s) being captured because so much time has elapsed.
This is all tremendous fun but how many votes will it shift? The paradox is the right is attacking Hobbit for doing things they approve of anyway.
Nope - he is being attacked for being another luvvie hypocrite, trying to tell us how to behave yet doing things very differently for himself.
And how many votes will it shift? How many voters will switch from Labour because Hobbit does these things, and vote instead for a party which approves of those things being done? It's the politics of the playground. What next? Vote Plaid because William Hague learnt Welsh?
It's the same as Miliband saying that he knows how the ordinary man is feeling, from his two-kitchened house in North London. Look at Scotland to see the damage that is doing to Labour.
The party of the working class have stopped looking and sounding like the voice of the working man, instead being the same PPE clones as the Tories they claim to despise, caring themselves more about attracting the support of tax-avoiding luvvies that the white van man - who is fed up with being sneered at and moving his support to Con or more likely UKIP.
It also plays into the more general narrative that Labour have gone into the campaign with no planning at all, their election strategy seems to be shouting over and over again that Tories eat babies and hoping that this is enough to see them just over the line.
Their researchers seemed to have switched off their internet connections while assembling their letter the other day. Any researcher not star-struck would have spotted that Freeman was perhaps not the best guy to lead their opening day campaign. Who next, Jimmy Carr?
And are you sure Jimmy Carr supports Labour? I'm not. But leave that to one side.
All those criticisms of Labour, and its campaign may well be true, and have been made here previously. The question remains, how do the Conservatives gain from this, given they support it?
I think this election is almost unique in living memory as being about much more than just the top two parties. Anecdotal evidence suggests that there's little direct exchange of votes between the top two.
Any shift toward the Tories will be either a vote for NOTA (UKIP?) or not bothering to vote at all - in the marginals (esp. Midlands and North) this may be enough to swing the election one way or the other, it may even come down to the weather on the day.
Quote : it means there is political leaking coming from the upper echelons of the civil service. Not only are they leaking, they aren’t even doing it well.
@faisalislam: .during indyref Salmond repeatedly cited 1 totally denied single anonymous sourced Guardian report on currency union in his arguments favour
@SkyNewsBreak: Labour leader Ed #Miliband says the claims that Nicola #Sturgeon secretly backs David Cameron as Prime Minister are "damning revelations"
The confirmation that sturgeon thinks Ed is incompetent, rather than the suspicion she thinks he's incompetent, is a damming revelation? Not so sure it is.
Quote : it means there is political leaking coming from the upper echelons of the civil service. Not only are they leaking, they aren’t even doing it well.
I hadn't realised that the French Ambassador had denied it as well.
I know he's French, and a diplomat, but it would be unusual for someone in his position to lie openly
Nicola says it's false. French Ambassador says it's false. French Consul General says it's false. Scottish Government Minutes say it's false. Telegraph Source - Third Hand UK Government Minutes say it's probably false.
Even the Huff Post comments section which usually tears strips out the SNP is full of castigation of The Telegraph. It seems clear that this isn't going to hurt Sturgeon now but it could have very bad consequences for The Telegraph, The Civil Service and whichever political party this ends up being linked to.
The SNP obviously want a Conservative government, hardly a shock in that.
As it opens a quick route to another referendum on Scottish Independence, through the constitutional arguments of the next two years over an in out referendum on the EU
"1. He doesn't realise they won't work - i.e. he is incompetent 2. He doesn't care they won't work provided they win him the election - i.e. he is disingenuous"
I suspect it's 2. But that's OK because the ends justifies the means. An Ed-led Labour government is essential to right all wrongs.
Quote : it means there is political leaking coming from the upper echelons of the civil service. Not only are they leaking, they aren’t even doing it well.
I hadn't realised that the French Ambassador had denied it as well.
I know he's French, and a diplomat, but it would be unusual for someone in his position to lie openly
He hasn't denied that she said Ed wasn't up to being PM. A non denial.
He doesn't have to be up to the job as long as the person whose pocket he resides in is.
Mike (or anyone)- what do you think of the Tory prospects of holding Bedford if you dont mind me asking?
2/1 with Lad's
I wouldn't touch that with a ten foot barge pole.
Pudsey, Worcester, Gloucester and Kingswood are seats where the Tories could just hang on.
Kind of agree with that, Artist, though I'd want a longer barge pole.
Tories should hold Worcester but I've backed Labour in Gloucester. The incumbent MP has done no wrong but the Labour candidate is good and there's a big LD vote to squeeze.
Quote : it means there is political leaking coming from the upper echelons of the civil service. Not only are they leaking, they aren’t even doing it well.
I hadn't realised that the French Ambassador had denied it as well.
I know he's French, and a diplomat, but it would be unusual for someone in his position to lie openly
He hasn't denied that she said Ed wasn't up to being PM. A non denial.
He doesn't have to be up to the job as long as the person whose pocket he resides in is.
Quote : it means there is political leaking coming from the upper echelons of the civil service. Not only are they leaking, they aren’t even doing it well.
I hadn't realised that the French Ambassador had denied it as well.
I know he's French, and a diplomat, but it would be unusual for someone in his position to lie openly
Nicola says it's false. French Ambassador says it's false. French Consul General says it's false. Scottish Government Minutes say it's false. Telegraph Source - Third Hand UK Government Minutes say it's probably false.
Even the Huff Post comments section which usually tears strips out the SNP is full of castigation of The Telegraph. It seems clear that this isn't going to hurt Sturgeon now but it could have very bad consequences for The Telegraph, The Civil Service and whichever political party this ends up being linked to.
It appears to be too subtle for you Dair. Nicola has denied something, the French have denied something else and neither is exactly what is in the Telegraph - which stands behind its story.
"The press's primary objective is to sell papers. Any editorial slant is entirely driven by that (appealing to core readership, etc)."
One would like to think so. With the Mail the evidence is that Dacre has a list of prejudices which his newspaper allows him to give vent to. I doubt his poison sells a single extra copy. I know many readers who are embarrassed by it. His paper does well in spite of it.
On topic, I don't think David gives enough weight to the considerable anger at the notion of the SNP being able to lean on a weak and desperate Ed to get whatever they want. People in the South-West worry that next time the Dawlish line goes down, the funds to bring it back in service will have been purloined by Scotland.
For some Kippers, the notion of money going to the Central Belt causes them to fulminate more than the idea of it going to Brussels. There are votes in this for the Tories. I suspect it will play badly for Labour in the Midlands too, although I'm not door-knocking there, so will wait for others to tell us what they are finding.
Quote : it means there is political leaking coming from the upper echelons of the civil service. Not only are they leaking, they aren’t even doing it well.
I hadn't realised that the French Ambassador had denied it as well.
I know he's French, and a diplomat, but it would be unusual for someone in his position to lie openly
Nicola says it's false. French Ambassador says it's false. French Consul General says it's false. Scottish Government Minutes say it's false. Telegraph Source - Third Hand UK Government Minutes say it's probably false.
Even the Huff Post comments section which usually tears strips out the SNP is full of castigation of The Telegraph. It seems clear that this isn't going to hurt Sturgeon now but it could have very bad consequences for The Telegraph, The Civil Service and whichever political party this ends up being linked to.
It appears to be too subtle for you Dair. Nicola has denied something, the French have denied something else and neither is exactly what is in the Telegraph - which stands behind its story.
Only Nicola is rueing the day.
Seems to be only in that head of yours that this opinion is being held.
I think Mr Herdson neglects the polling on the views of England on an SNP-propped up government...
What does the polling say specifically that David Herdson is missing? Is there some polling the validates some argument like, "Don't vote Labour, because they'll have to rely on the SNP if not enough people vote for them"?
Yes, David is making the point that Ashcroft found in polls - potential Labour supporters don't see that not voting Labour is going to reduce the risk, if it's a risk.
The Sturgeon story with its heated denials is going to be obscure to most people, and I doubt if it will have much effect in England, but it feeds the sense of unease that Labour in Scotland is trying to encourage about the effect of replacing lots of Labour MPs with lots of Nationalists. Sturgeon will clearly see it as unhelpful, and tactically it's a mistake for the Tory press to go big on it if their primary motive is to prevent a Labour Government.
It's not aimed at potential Labour voters. It's aimed at potential UKIP voters. And so far it's been far more effective than I expected.
Don't understand that at all, and what on earth is your metric for effectiveness on potential kippers?
There is a cohort of voters who aren't warm on the current Conservative leadership who have been thinking about voting for UKIP. This group responds particularly virulently to the idea of Scotland being given more money. The idea of a Labour/SNP alliance fills them with loathing.
Anecdotally I have had several such voters raise this spontaneously with me. And in the polls UKIP recently have been drifting down a bit while the Conservatives have been climbing a bit. Correlation does not equal causation, I accept.
You're correct. Among my friends and acquaintances are plenty who dislike Cameron, would happily vote UKIP in secondary elections, but will vote Conservative to keep out Labour/SNP.
Yep! Agree with the anecdotal data that while Cameron is maybe not brilliant, the alternative is a throwback to the 1970's and could well end up with us heading to the IMF again. Given that choice, a lot of Blue Kippers in the marginals may well, through gritted teeth, vote blue on the day.
If Greece defaults next week then I expect to wake up to a repeat of the 1992 result on May 8th.
The only things that have changed since I've posted on here are the polls.
If we examine them, we are confronted with several core questions.
1) Which methodology do we trust? Phones or internet?
2) Which pollsters do we trust? Ones with recent proven accuracy or ones who have been seen to be amiss by miles recently?
3) Which pollsters do we place most faith in? Ones who have years of success on their CVs, or the new kids on the block?
From what I see the most favourable Labour polls are those of Survation online, Comres online and Populus online. The most obvious variation with their data and that of the longer running phone operations is the Con-UKIP switchers.
They're basically 50% higher than the phone pollsters find
The variety in the polls is either methodology around this group, or we have some shy Kippers who claim to be Tories when telephoned.
For some Kippers, the notion of money going to the Central Belt causes them to fulminate more than the idea of it going to Brussels. There are votes in this for the Tories.
The Tories spoke about english votes for english laws before the last election. They've had five years in government to do something about it.
They've had five years in government to reform the Barnett formula.
Quote : it means there is political leaking coming from the upper echelons of the civil service. Not only are they leaking, they aren’t even doing it well.
I hadn't realised that the French Ambassador had denied it as well.
I know he's French, and a diplomat, but it would be unusual for someone in his position to lie openly
He hasn't denied that she said Ed wasn't up to being PM. A non denial.
As usual the question is cui bono, to whom is the benefit.
SNP ? Nothing there except hassle for them
Tories ? Nope, the very last thing they needs is SNP votes moving back to Labour
LDs ? Possibly, takes a bit of pressure off their Scottish seats
The French ? Possibly they might want a Lab government and no referendum, but they wouldn't do it in a way that obviously points the finger at themselves. In anycase they know Cameron is going to get nothing from the EU (because they will make sure of it) and the referendum will be a fiasco.
Labour ? Hell yes, try and move votes back from SNP to themselves, and tempt red kippers who don't like the idea of a Lab/SNP government back. Plus they have form for this sort of stunt, and it looks at least semi-deniable.
Must be the luckyest £350 I've ever made. I guess it shows her inexperience (or duplicity).
Either way not good for her or the Nats
What strikes me about this story, as well as the atual wording of the memo ("appears ... not sure ... something lost") is the way in which certain major SLAB activists latched onto it very quickly to tweet very loudly about it, and then almost as quickly deleted their tweets, as if they realise it's a sharny midden of a story.
Mr. Owls, that seems quite an odd thing for her to say. Over the telephone. To a Frenchman.
I'm sure she might prefer a Conservative Government, but I'd be surprised if she said as such, in that way, to that diplomat.
There still seems something not quite right about this one. I guess that the Civil Service are bound to say absolutely nothing during purdah, but if it is clearly a hoax or fabrication would someone from the relevant department be allowed to comment to the media..?
For some Kippers, the notion of money going to the Central Belt causes them to fulminate more than the idea of it going to Brussels. There are votes in this for the Tories.
The Tories spoke about english votes for english laws before the last election. They've had five years in government to do something about it.
They've had five years in government to reform the Barnett formula.
Quote : it means there is political leaking coming from the upper echelons of the civil service. Not only are they leaking, they aren’t even doing it well.
I hadn't realised that the French Ambassador had denied it as well.
I know he's French, and a diplomat, but it would be unusual for someone in his position to lie openly
He hasn't denied that she said Ed wasn't up to being PM. A non denial.
As usual the question is cui bono, to whom is the benefit.
SNP ? Nothing there except hassle for them
Tories ? Nope, the very last thing they needs is SNP votes moving back to Labour
LDs ? Possibly, takes a bit of pressure off their Scottish seats
The French ? Possibly they might want a Lab government and no referendum, but they wouldn't do it in a way that obviously points the finger at themselves. In anycase they know Cameron is going to get nothing from the EU (because they will make sure of it) and the referendum will be a fiasco.
Labour ? Hell yes, try and move votes back from SNP to themselves, and tempt red kippers who don't like the idea of a Lab/SNP government back. Plus they have form for this sort of stunt, and it looks at least semi-deniable.
Did I miss anyone ?
Civil Service. Lots of criticism over how they handled the First Indyref and I think there's a few enquiries/committee sessions due for them.
Miliband is being ripped apart on twitter.
Calling senior diplomats from a close ally liars is not a good move. The man doesn't seem to be Prime Ministerial material.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 31st March Projection) :
Con 313 (-3) .. Lab 244 (+2) .. LibDem 30 (NC) .. SNP 36 (NC) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 4 (+1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 13 seats short of a majority ......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - Con Hold Pudsey - Likely Con Hold Broxtowe - TCTC from Likely Con Hold Warwickshire North - Likely Con Hold Cambridge - LibDem Hold Ipswich - Con Hold Watford - TCTC Croydon Central - Con Hold Enfield North - TCTC Cornwall North - TCTC Great Yarmouth - Con Hold Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
Changes From 31 Mar - Broxtowe moves from Likely Con Hold to TCTC
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes Gain/Hold - Over 2500 .......................................................................................
ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division JNN - Jacobite News Network ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain
Extraordinary story by the Mail. They have just repeated their story of last week but made the headlines more lurid adding that Freeman is a tax avoider which the article doesn't back up. I really can't imagine why he isn't suing them. There is something ugly about Tory cheerleaders.
Dacre needs to take a long hard look at himself. The Mail is rapidly drowning in a torrent of its own bile.
The paper that has supported fascism for over 80 years , Dacre is just following that tradition .
I thought your beef about them was that they pointed out (correctly) that Cyril Smith was an active paedophile. Is that a fascist position?
Clearly Cyril Smith is dead and cannot sue you otherwise a coward like you would not have dared to post that .
You're really a Cyril Smith defender?
A Cyril Smith defender exists?
Wonders never cease.
Mark will always defend against what he perceives as an attack on the LibDems and its predecessors.
Whether it's defensible or not.
He's a true tribalist
Cyril Smith's child abuse is indefensible. Why does Senior bother?
I do think Cameron needs to be slapped around the head and neck with a large haddock until the vaguest notion of how the bloody internet works is beaten into him.
This. A thousand times this.
As someone who works in IT, may I plead with CCHQ that whoever the F is advising Cameron about the internet needs to be fired yesterday, he is a complete idiot.
For some Kippers, the notion of money going to the Central Belt causes them to fulminate more than the idea of it going to Brussels. There are votes in this for the Tories.
The Tories spoke about english votes for english laws before the last election. They've had five years in government to do something about it.
They've had five years in government to reform the Barnett formula.
What have they actually done?
They had a report commissioned to consider constitutional change properly.
Perhaps they didn't do anything because they couldn't build a consensus with other parties and are loath to make radical changes to the constitution for partisan advantage?
I feel sorry for Nicola now. Clearly someone or some party is out to get her and I'm fed up with honest comments being used as dirt. She's entitled to her opinion.
Quote : it means there is political leaking coming from the upper echelons of the civil service. Not only are they leaking, they aren’t even doing it well.
I hadn't realised that the French Ambassador had denied it as well.
I know he's French, and a diplomat, but it would be unusual for someone in his position to lie openly
He hasn't denied that she said Ed wasn't up to being PM. A non denial.
As usual the question is cui bono, to whom is the benefit.
SNP ? Nothing there except hassle for them
Tories ? Nope, the very last thing they needs is SNP votes moving back to Labour
LDs ? Possibly, takes a bit of pressure off their Scottish seats
The French ? Possibly they might want a Lab government and no referendum, but they wouldn't do it in a way that obviously points the finger at themselves. In anycase they know Cameron is going to get nothing from the EU (because they will make sure of it) and the referendum will be a fiasco.
Labour ? Hell yes, try and move votes back from SNP to themselves, and tempt red kippers who don't like the idea of a Lab/SNP government back. Plus they have form for this sort of stunt, and it looks at least semi-deniable.
Did I miss anyone ?
What puzzles me is why certain SLAB activists etc tweeted very loudly to disseminiate the story but very quickly deleted and in at least one case apologised to Ms Sturgeon.
Yes, a SLAB activist saying sorry to a SNP leader. SORRY. I APOLOGISE TO YOU.
But since their post-debate headline announced the smaller Parties as the winners and Labour as the losers, I think we can take it that it's a bit detached from reality at the moment and likely to remain so until May 8th.
For some Kippers, the notion of money going to the Central Belt causes them to fulminate more than the idea of it going to Brussels. There are votes in this for the Tories.
The Tories spoke about english votes for english laws before the last election. They've had five years in government to do something about it.
They've had five years in government to reform the Barnett formula.
What have they actually done?
I'm not sure you understand the concept of coalition very well.
Comments
The bloke is a complete loon I agree but you cannot deny he was right over Saville.
"I thought your beef about them was that they pointed out (correctly) that Cyril Smith was an active paedophile. Is that a fascist position?"
No this is.....
http://www.undo.net/Pressrelease/foto/1279196011b.jpg
So job half done, according to most of those with a GE track record.
The risk to Labour comes in the Opposition Debate. If, by some small miracle Caroline Lucas replaces Natalie Bennett, Labour could very quickly end up down at 30.
Miliband v Farage, Lucas, Sturgeon.
Bennett is Miliband's saviour.
Nuneaton 11-8
"Sky News seems to have abandoned any attempt at impartiality in their reporting of ....gate"
In favour of whom?
I'll get my coat!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32176740
Under its plan, any bank or building society that offered such an ISA would be required to invest the money in housing.
This would unlock £5bn to invest in a Future Homes Investment Fund to build 125,000 new homes between 2015 and 2020, according to Mr Miliband, and a Labour government would underwrite the investment.
Of course it all depends on the terms of the investment, but fundamentally banks should not be in the business of making principal investments with depositors' money.
I suspect, though, that Miliband is just expecting them to stick a chunk of money into a fund to let him spend it.
The net result - of course - is that no banks will offer this kind of ISA because the strings make it fundamentally unattractive business for them (cash ISAs simply aren't that profitable)
Hence Miliband's expected source of funds disappears in a puff of smoke. Net result is either his pledge can't be met, or he has to meet it by additional borrowing over his baseline
This neatly highlights my big concern about Miliband: it's all these nice sounding wheezes that don't event pass the first review without being found out. I can only see two options:
1. He doesn't realise they won't work - i.e. he is incompetent
2. He doesn't care they won't work provided they win him the election - i.e. he is disingenuous
Is there a third option? Because I don't want a incompetent or a liar as a PM.
Whether it's defensible or not.
He's a true tribalist
Nicola Sturgeon ‘secretly backs Cameron in private phone conversation’ http://sunpl.us/6013N4IW
With the French Ambassador Mr Dancer
A mere 36 seats would be a disaster from where the SNP currently look to be, which is wielding a Claymore above their heads atop Ben Nevis.
"On topic, The Tories have hit 36-37 with ICM, Comres (phone), Yougov and Opinium at some point in the last month or so, as well as Ashcroft who is supposed to be using Populus Phone Poll methodology.
So job half done, according to most of those with a GE track record.
The risk to Labour comes in the Opposition Debate. If, by some small miracle Caroline Lucas replaces Natalie Bennett, Labour could very quickly end up down at 30."
I remember when you first started posting and you appeared to be a new PB psephologist who are always the most worthwhile reads on here. But since then you've revealed yourself as just another Tory cheerleading fruitcake of which there are already far too many
@CCHQPress: Y'day @Ed_Miliband claimed he'd "force" banks to invest in Labour's housing scheme - @EmmaReynoldsMP today admits optional for banks #chaos
@CCHQPress: Today will be @EmmaReynoldsMP's one and only TV appearance of the campaign
Q4
lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/ANP-summary-150309X1.pdf
"We will spend £5bn on new houses" - translation: using money from the Tory Help to Buy ISA we will ask the banks very nicely if this could perhaps be spent on building houses
"We will balance the books" - translation: the current account will be balanced, but this will happen anyway by the end of the parliament thanks to a growing economy, and billions will continue to be borrowed for "investment"
"We will increase the minimum wage" - translation: it will go up slower than inflation and we don't have direct control over the NMW anyway so can't promise any more than this sorry
"We will end zero hours contracts" - translation: sorry the government got there first on this and banned exclusive contracts so we are left with merely mentioning the evil zero hours contracts at every opportunity and will do other small things that people won't take up anyway
Pudsey, Worcester, Gloucester and Kingswood are seats where the Tories could just hang on.
I'm sure she might prefer a Conservative Government, but I'd be surprised if she said as such, in that way, to that diplomat.
http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewgraemesmith/frenchgate-two-hours-in-the-life-of-a-strange-sc-1gjrg
Quote : it means there is political leaking coming from the upper echelons of the civil service. Not only are they leaking, they aren’t even doing it well.
That said, civil servants not being neutral is not news. Wasn't Damian McBride technically a civil servant?
Mr. P, sounds like Miliband thinks he's sufficiently buggered up energy, and is now looking for a new sector to damage.
Edited extra bit: Dr. Spyn, I can see why that will make the Mail cheer, but how is it to work?
I do think Cameron needs to be slapped around the head and neck with a large haddock until the vaguest notion of how the bloody internet works is beaten into him.
I know he's French, and a diplomat, but it would be unusual for someone in his position to lie openly
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-32178121
Hur hur hur.... Has anybody actually briefed Ed about this story?
As well as his unjust imprisonment for 30 years, the families of the victims now have far less chance of the killer(s) being captured because so much time has elapsed.
She needs to tell what she actually said or it will haunt the SNP campaign.
French Ambassadress:: Her Excellency Sylvie BERMANN
Looks very much a woman.
http://www.ambafrance-uk.org/Biography-23568
Any shift toward the Tories will be either a vote for NOTA (UKIP?) or not bothering to vote at all - in the marginals (esp. Midlands and North) this may be enough to swing the election one way or the other, it may even come down to the weather on the day.
French Ambassador says it's false.
French Consul General says it's false.
Scottish Government Minutes say it's false.
Telegraph Source - Third Hand UK Government Minutes say it's probably false.
Even the Huff Post comments section which usually tears strips out the SNP is full of castigation of The Telegraph. It seems clear that this isn't going to hurt Sturgeon now but it could have very bad consequences for The Telegraph, The Civil Service and whichever political party this ends up being linked to.
Sell SNP seats Pulpstar!
As it opens a quick route to another referendum on Scottish Independence, through the constitutional arguments of the next two years over an in out referendum on the EU
"1. He doesn't realise they won't work - i.e. he is incompetent
2. He doesn't care they won't work provided they win him the election - i.e. he is disingenuous"
I suspect it's 2. But that's OK because the ends justifies the means. An Ed-led Labour government is essential to right all wrongs.
Telegraph is right out on a limb now.
Is this one of their classic not actually a quite quotes that they love to do with SNP pols?
Tories should hold Worcester but I've backed Labour in Gloucester. The incumbent MP has done no wrong but the Labour candidate is good and there's a big LD vote to squeeze.
No opinion on the other two.
Only Nicola is rueing the day.
"The press's primary objective is to sell papers. Any editorial slant is entirely driven by that (appealing to core readership, etc)."
One would like to think so. With the Mail the evidence is that Dacre has a list of prejudices which his newspaper allows him to give vent to. I doubt his poison sells a single extra copy. I know many readers who are embarrassed by it. His paper does well in spite of it.
For some Kippers, the notion of money going to the Central Belt causes them to fulminate more than the idea of it going to Brussels. There are votes in this for the Tories. I suspect it will play badly for Labour in the Midlands too, although I'm not door-knocking there, so will wait for others to tell us what they are finding.
Must be one hell of a strange country.
Nicola, like many even in the Labour party, thinks Ed isn't up to it and says so. The assumption is made that she'd prefer Cameron.
All have deny-ability on parts of the story.
And I have no idea of the truth either.
If Greece defaults next week then I expect to wake up to a repeat of the 1992 result on May 8th.
The only things that have changed since I've posted on here are the polls.
If we examine them, we are confronted with several core questions.
1) Which methodology do we trust? Phones or internet?
2) Which pollsters do we trust? Ones with recent proven accuracy or ones who have been seen to be amiss by miles recently?
3) Which pollsters do we place most faith in? Ones who have years of success on their CVs, or the new kids on the block?
From what I see the most favourable Labour polls are those of Survation online, Comres online and Populus online. The most obvious variation with their data and that of the longer running phone operations is the Con-UKIP switchers.
They're basically 50% higher than the phone pollsters find
The variety in the polls is either methodology around this group, or we have some shy Kippers who claim to be Tories when telephoned.
"http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/SNP/11515276/Revealed-Full-text-of-Nicola-Sturgeon-memo.html"
Jesus!! From hero to zero in a day!!
Must be the luckyest £350 I've ever made. I guess it shows her inexperience (or duplicity).
Either way not good for her or the Nats
They've had five years in government to reform the Barnett formula.
What have they actually done?
They've published their source document and it doesn't back up their story and clearly states that it's "probably wrong".
SNP ? Nothing there except hassle for them
Tories ? Nope, the very last thing they needs is SNP votes moving back to Labour
LDs ? Possibly, takes a bit of pressure off their Scottish seats
The French ? Possibly they might want a Lab government and no referendum, but they wouldn't do it in a way that obviously points the finger at themselves. In anycase they know Cameron is going to get nothing from the EU (because they will make sure of it) and the referendum will be a fiasco.
Labour ? Hell yes, try and move votes back from SNP to themselves, and tempt red kippers who don't like the idea of a Lab/SNP government back. Plus they have form for this sort of stunt, and it looks at least semi-deniable.
Did I miss anyone ?
Sturgeon probably said something like "We'd work with Labour, but to be honest EdM isn't Prime Ministerial - at least Dave is up to the job"
That's not "backing Dave" it's "not backing Ed", but in headline-speak....
Not the least fascinating aspect is how it came into the hands of the DT, why, and who is up to what?!
All good fun....but no game-changer.
Miliband is being ripped apart on twitter.
Calling senior diplomats from a close ally liars is not a good move. The man doesn't seem to be Prime Ministerial material.
I am sure Nick P will be pleased!
As someone who works in IT, may I plead with CCHQ that whoever the F is advising Cameron about the internet needs to be fired yesterday, he is a complete idiot.
Perhaps they didn't do anything because they couldn't build a consensus with other parties and are loath to make radical changes to the constitution for partisan advantage?
I feel sorry for Nicola now. Clearly someone or some party is out to get her and I'm fed up with honest comments being used as dirt. She's entitled to her opinion.
Perfidious Frogs.
https://twitter.com/LouiseMensch/status/584188434434158593
Yes, a SLAB activist saying sorry to a SNP leader. SORRY. I APOLOGISE TO YOU.
http://wingsoverscotland.com/leesten-varry-caurfelly/#more-69168
https://storify.com/theSNP/telegraph-and-the-scottish-labour
Murphy needs to find one. Quickly.
Tories go on child protection issues today
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-32180744
"Did I miss anyone ?"
Yes, The Daily Telegraph.
But since their post-debate headline announced the smaller Parties as the winners and Labour as the losers, I think we can take it that it's a bit detached from reality at the moment and likely to remain so until May 8th.