Just a word on Sturgeon: she's a clever and capable performer. But she's also at the ceiling of her support (hard to see it rising). She has more to lose than any other leader excepting Cameron (who could lose support for the Conservatives but is almost certainly not at the ceiling). She may play it very safe, go for the confident, calm, slightly boring 'I'm in government and know what I'm doing' stance [she also has the unique advantage of being both government and opposition].
SO UK Polling Report gives Labour 310 and the Tories 296 seats on last night's yougov. Even if Labour loses 30 Scottish seats as looks likely that would still leave them on 280, clearly ahead of the 258 they won in 2010 http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/swing-calculator
We'll see. I suspect Labour is not going to do as well as "just" losing 30 seats in Scotland, while much of England may also be a struggle. They should make gains in London and some in Wales and the North, but the Midlands and the South will be very hard. Overall it's hard to see Labour winning many more seats than they will lose in Scotland.
Do Labour actually need all that many seats in the Midlands though ?
Broxtowe; Sherwood; Nuneaton; North Warwickshire; Northampton North; Wolverhampton South West
SO Based on the latest ICM poll Labour will have 12 seats left in Scotland and lose about 30, if tactical voting for Labour by unionist voters against the SNP takes place in any form from Tories and the LDs it could even be higher. Overall, as the Ashcroft polling shows in marginal seats Labour is gaining enough Tory seats for the UK polling report national swing to be reflected in seat gains
Anyone been watching ' Portillo's State Secrets' in Bbc2 this week?
Michael looks at govt reports from the time around controversial incidents
I've only seen a couple (have sky plussed) but just watched Mondays episode about sport... He investigated the thinking behind allowing Britain to attend Hitlers 1936 Olympics, the decision not to allow Jack Johnson to fight here, and the football hooliganism of the 80s, interesting
Sweating could be a major issue for the contestants in tonight's fight.Farage looked particularly out of shape in his first clash with Clegg but the risks of excessive perspiration are more real for Cameron,especially if it gets mixed up with the make-up powder and ends up dripping like sludge.Clegg's face is also worth a watch for puffiness-he looked to be going the same way as Elvis earlier on in the parliament.Miliband has far less of a puffy,sweaty look. I suspect too 2 contests,one for Head Girl and one for Head Boy but the sisterhood,working as a team,could end up the overall winner which is why I am backing Sturgeon at 9-1.
A Sturgaculation is certainly possible. The problem is that she's not trying to appeal to a UK audience - her debate strategy is simple and very focussed. Expect lots of *scotland this* and *scotland that* - is that really going to win over the ~20-25% of the English people on the polling panel that she'd need, to come out as the winner?
I dunno.
Sturgeon isn't going to play to her audience. The whole point of the Good Cop, Bad Cop strategy with Salmond is to lead up to this debate and let her walk in with a completely refreshing and different approach to Salmond which appeals to an English audience and wins her the debate.
She doesn't have to appeal to her core vote in Scotland. That's already in the bag and rock solid. What this debate will do is catapult her even higher in their esteem and have the "awww, oor Nic went down there and did us proud". That's the strategy.
It should be noted that ARM relied heavily on public subsidy in its early days. Something that the US gets right, but is rarely done in the UK.
Indeed. Japan and the US know that public subsidy for technology companies is very important in the beginning. Look at Japan's INCJ it seeds small and large technology companies across the country and a company that would likely have failed (Japan Display) in the face of Chinese and Korean subsidies is now thriving because of the high quality product offered to the likes of Apple and Sony (companies who don't want to compromise and are willing to pay top dollar). Without that government intervention via INCJ, Sony, Hitachi and Toshiba would likely have shut down their display divisions and let thousands of workers go.
The UK government needs to look very hard at how it helps small and large companies invest in R&D. I remember when I was at Sony it almost felt like we were being penalised when we made heavy investment in the UK (actually anywhere in the EU) compared to our US and Japanese counterparts.
It isn't even about picking winners, it is about giving innovation a chance before American companies come and cherry pick the best start ups.
Sweating could be a major issue for the contestants in tonight's fight.Farage looked particularly out of shape in his first clash with Clegg but the risks of excessive perspiration are more real for Cameron,especially if it gets mixed up with the make-up powder and ends up dripping like sludge.Clegg's face is also worth a watch for puffiness-he looked to be going the same way as Elvis earlier on in the parliament.Miliband has far less of a puffy,sweaty look. I suspect too 2 contests,one for Head Girl and one for Head Boy but the sisterhood,working as a team,could end up the overall winner which is why I am backing Sturgeon at 9-1.
A Sturgaculation is certainly possible. The problem is that she's not trying to appeal to a UK audience - her debate strategy is simple and very focussed. Expect lots of *scotland this* and *scotland that* - is that really going to win over the ~20-25% of the English people on the polling panel that she'd need, to come out as the winner?
I dunno.
Sturgeon isn't going to play to her audience. The whole point of the Good Cop, Bad Cop strategy with Salmond is to lead up to this debate and let her walk in with a completely refreshing and different approach to Salmond which appeals to an English audience and wins her the debate.
She doesn't have to appeal to her core vote in Scotland. That's already in the bag and rock solid. What this debate will do is catapult her even higher in their esteem and have the "awww, oor Nic went down there and did us proud". That's the strategy.
What's the point, they can't vote for her or even Alex. Might as well be a member of the CDU on a visit from Germany.
Sweating could be a major issue for the contestants in tonight's fight.Farage looked particularly out of shape in his first clash with Clegg but the risks of excessive perspiration are more real for Cameron,especially if it gets mixed up with the make-up powder and ends up dripping like sludge.Clegg's face is also worth a watch for puffiness-he looked to be going the same way as Elvis earlier on in the parliament.Miliband has far less of a puffy,sweaty look. I suspect too 2 contests,one for Head Girl and one for Head Boy but the sisterhood,working as a team,could end up the overall winner which is why I am backing Sturgeon at 9-1.
A Sturgaculation is certainly possible. The problem is that she's not trying to appeal to a UK audience - her debate strategy is simple and very focussed. Expect lots of *scotland this* and *scotland that* - is that really going to win over the ~20-25% of the English people on the polling panel that she'd need, to come out as the winner?
I dunno.
Sturgeon isn't going to play to her audience. The whole point of the Good Cop, Bad Cop strategy with Salmond is to lead up to this debate and let her walk in with a completely refreshing and different approach to Salmond which appeals to an English audience and wins her the debate.
She doesn't have to appeal to her core vote in Scotland. That's already in the bag and rock solid. What this debate will do is catapult her even higher in their esteem and have the "awww, oor Nic went down there and did us proud". That's the strategy.
What's the point, they can't vote for her or even Alex. Might as well be a member of the CDU on a visit from Germany.
I suppose the point is to eclipse Miliband. Leanne Wood, otoh, ought to be focusing purely on what will go down well in 5 specific seats (which does rather confirm that her presence is faintly ludicrous).
Sweating could be a major issue for the contestants in tonight's fight.Farage looked particularly out of shape in his first clash with Clegg but the risks of excessive perspiration are more real for Cameron,especially if it gets mixed up with the make-up powder and ends up dripping like sludge.Clegg's face is also worth a watch for puffiness-he looked to be going the same way as Elvis earlier on in the parliament.Miliband has far less of a puffy,sweaty look. I suspect too 2 contests,one for Head Girl and one for Head Boy but the sisterhood,working as a team,could end up the overall winner which is why I am backing Sturgeon at 9-1.
A Sturgaculation is certainly possible. The problem is that she's not trying to appeal to a UK audience - her debate strategy is simple and very focussed. Expect lots of *scotland this* and *scotland that* - is that really going to win over the ~20-25% of the English people on the polling panel that she'd need, to come out as the winner?
I dunno.
Sturgeon isn't going to play to her audience. The whole point of the Good Cop, Bad Cop strategy with Salmond is to lead up to this debate and let her walk in with a completely refreshing and different approach to Salmond which appeals to an English audience and wins her the debate.
She doesn't have to appeal to her core vote in Scotland. That's already in the bag and rock solid. What this debate will do is catapult her even higher in their esteem and have the "awww, oor Nic went down there and did us proud". That's the strategy.
What's the point, they can't vote for her or even Alex. Might as well be a member of the CDU on a visit from Germany.
The point is relevance.
Winning the debate or at least significantly improving perceptions of the SNP outside Scotland makes them far more relevant and stops them being marginalised during the campaign. It keeps them in the national news and stops them being squeezed as usually happens during UK election campaigns.
Sweating could be a major issue for the contestants in tonight's fight.Farage looked particularly out of shape in his first clash with Clegg but the risks of excessive perspiration are more real for Cameron,especially if it gets mixed up with the make-up powder and ends up dripping like sludge.Clegg's face is also worth a watch for puffiness-he looked to be going the same way as Elvis earlier on in the parliament.Miliband has far less of a puffy,sweaty look. I suspect too 2 contests,one for Head Girl and one for Head Boy but the sisterhood,working as a team,could end up the overall winner which is why I am backing Sturgeon at 9-1.
A Sturgaculation is certainly possible. The problem is that she's not trying to appeal to a UK audience - her debate strategy is simple and very focussed. Expect lots of *scotland this* and *scotland that* - is that really going to win over the ~20-25% of the English people on the polling panel that she'd need, to come out as the winner?
I dunno.
Sturgeon isn't going to play to her audience. The whole point of the Good Cop, Bad Cop strategy with Salmond is to lead up to this debate and let her walk in with a completely refreshing and different approach to Salmond which appeals to an English audience and wins her the debate.
She doesn't have to appeal to her core vote in Scotland. That's already in the bag and rock solid. What this debate will do is catapult her even higher in their esteem and have the "awww, oor Nic went down there and did us proud". That's the strategy.
"Of course it won't be the nice cuddly Nicola you see here dictating the terms to Ed - it will be her nasty bullying boss Alex Salmond...."
'Looking at pension choices on the Aegon website and I'd have more chance of picking the Grand National winner I reckon.'
Think of it like an ISA in that you have basically two choices, one being an ISA that is plugged into a computer model and simply follows the FTSE up & down with low fees or an ISA that has fund managers that actively manage your investments with of course a higher fee.
So is Clegg going to try and throw Cameron under a bus to try and drum up a few votes, and as the Telegraph puts it "wash coalition dirty laundry in public" or is he going to be hoping the melt down isn't quite so bad and someone might be wanting a coalition partner. It feels rather either/or, if he throws Dave under a bus the chances of him being forgiven enough to enter into any kind of relationship seems slim.
Ed Miliband suffered a damaging blow today as Labour’s biggest union bankroller was caught in a storm over allegedly using “zero-hour” contracts.
Hours before the TV debate between party leaders, Mr Miliband was hit by the row over claims the Unite union using zero-hour contracts despite publicly campaigning against them.
Gove, Burnham, Alexander, Alibhai-Brown and Peter Hitchens
No Ukip but Hitchens will fill that void hopefully
It was looking good until I read as far as Alibhai-Brown, she is sanctimonious in a way that would embarrass the most sandal wearing of Lib Dems, and spouts this sort of undemocratic crap:
'What has to happen between now and the elections that are coming up, is that the media has to be, kind of controlled, in terms of how often Farage gets to rule the airwaves. I think we should be very very worried."
Control the media because you don't like a legal political party ?!
Isam As an archivist and records manager I have been meaning to catch it, I will try and watch some on iplayer which I have missed, certainly his train programmes were good and I have had him speak a few times and he was also excellent
Much as I'm an obsessive about politics, i'll be switching off for the post match analysis. I won't be holding my breath waiting to see who Alistair Campbell thought won or came out worse.
Following PB, I've had a punt on Leanne Wood at 33's but that will be the extent of my post debate interest
Sweating could be a major issue for the contestants in tonight's fight.Farage looked particularly out of shape in his first clash with Clegg but the risks of excessive perspiration are more real for Cameron,especially if it gets mixed up with the make-up powder and ends up dripping like sludge.Clegg's face is also worth a watch for puffiness-he looked to be going the same way as Elvis earlier on in the parliament.Miliband has far less of a puffy,sweaty look. I suspect too 2 contests,one for Head Girl and one for Head Boy but the sisterhood,working as a team,could end up the overall winner which is why I am backing Sturgeon at 9-1.
A Sturgaculation is certainly possible. The problem is that she's not trying to appeal to a UK audience - her debate strategy is simple and very focussed. Expect lots of *scotland this* and *scotland that* - is that really going to win over the ~20-25% of the English people on the polling panel that she'd need, to come out as the winner?
I dunno.
Sturgeon isn't going to play to her audience. The whole point of the Good Cop, Bad Cop strategy with Salmond is to lead up to this debate and let her walk in with a completely refreshing and different approach to Salmond which appeals to an English audience and wins her the debate.
She doesn't have to appeal to her core vote in Scotland. That's already in the bag and rock solid. What this debate will do is catapult her even higher in their esteem and have the "awww, oor Nic went down there and did us proud". That's the strategy.
I think what is being forgotten by some here and elsewhere is that we are all in one glorious union and that the SNP can do well not only by getting people to vote for them in Scotland, but also by getting people NOT to vote for their main opponents in Scotland - and that last can happen in [edit] rUK with the possible exception of NI. They can do that by promoting policies which Labour and the Tories don't promote, either by example (in truly devolved matters) or direct confrontation (in other matters).
Lol, just caught Tristram Hunt deploying the defence that I mentioned last night. Parliament only has "Casual" contracts rather than ZHC. Joke of a party.
Sweating could be a major issue for the contestants in tonight's fight.Farage looked particularly out of shape in his first clash with Clegg but the risks of excessive perspiration are more real for Cameron,especially if it gets mixed up with the make-up powder and ends up dripping like sludge.Clegg's face is also worth a watch for puffiness-he looked to be going the same way as Elvis earlier on in the parliament.Miliband has far less of a puffy,sweaty look. I suspect too 2 contests,one for Head Girl and one for Head Boy but the sisterhood,working as a team,could end up the overall winner which is why I am backing Sturgeon at 9-1.
A Sturgaculation is certainly possible. The problem is that she's not trying to appeal to a UK audience - her debate strategy is simple and very focussed. Expect lots of *scotland this* and *scotland that* - is that really going to win over the ~20-25% of the English people on the polling panel that she'd need, to come out as the winner?
I dunno.
Sturgeon isn't going to play to her audience. The whole point of the Good Cop, Bad Cop strategy with Salmond is to lead up to this debate and let her walk in with a completely refreshing and different approach to Salmond which appeals to an English audience and wins her the debate.
She doesn't have to appeal to her core vote in Scotland. That's already in the bag and rock solid. What this debate will do is catapult her even higher in their esteem and have the "awww, oor Nic went down there and did us proud". That's the strategy.
"Of course it won't be the nice cuddly Nicola you see here dictating the terms to Ed - it will be her nasty bullying boss Alex Salmond...."
to paraphrase...
Isn't "nice, cuddly" and Sturgeon contradiction in terms ?
Lol, just caught Tristram Hunt deploying the defence that I mentioned last night. Parliament only has "Casual" contracts rather than ZHC. Joke of a party.
That was also Chris Leslie's defence on the Daily Politics yesterday.
So apart from Labour MPs, Labour Councils and Labour's biggest donor.....
.. and most of the charity sector.
Pretty much the whole social care sector uses relief staff on ZHCs. Without that social care costs will spiral out of control or disabled people will receive worse care.
Much as I'm an obsessive about politics, i'll be switching off for the post match analysis. I won't be holding my breath waiting to see who Alistair Campbell thought won or came out worse.
Following PB, I've had a punt on Leanne Wood at 33's but that will be the extent of my post debate interest
Best interview I've seen from Suzanne Evans under quite strong pressure from Jo co burn on Daily Politics.
She's very assured, probably your best media performer.
She's a nice lady, we canvassed Jaywick together for Carswell
I think Farage is better personally, and Steven Woolfe is the one to watch
Woolfe is very solid, and Farage certainly knows the game. But the value of having a mildly feisty woman who doesn't get flustered is huge - helps to reach parts of the electorate that others can't.
Sweating could be a major issue for the contestants in tonight's fight.Farage looked particularly out of shape in his first clash with Clegg but the risks of excessive perspiration are more real for Cameron,especially if it gets mixed up with the make-up powder and ends up dripping like sludge.Clegg's face is also worth a watch for puffiness-he looked to be going the same way as Elvis earlier on in the parliament.Miliband has far less of a puffy,sweaty look. I suspect too 2 contests,one for Head Girl and one for Head Boy but the sisterhood,working as a team,could end up the overall winner which is why I am backing Sturgeon at 9-1.
A Sturgaculation is certainly possible. The problem is that she's not trying to appeal to a UK audience - her debate strategy is simple and very focussed. Expect lots of *scotland this* and *scotland that* - is that really going to win over the ~20-25% of the English people on the polling panel that she'd need, to come out as the winner?
I dunno.
Sturgeon isn't going to play to her audience. The whole point of the Good Cop, Bad Cop strategy with Salmond is to lead up to this debate and let her walk in with a completely refreshing and different approach to Salmond which appeals to an English audience and wins her the debate.
She doesn't have to appeal to her core vote in Scotland. That's already in the bag and rock solid. What this debate will do is catapult her even higher in their esteem and have the "awww, oor Nic went down there and did us proud". That's the strategy.
I think what is being forgotten by some here and elsewhere is that we are all in one glorious union and that the SNP can do well not only by getting people to vote for them in Scotland, but also by getting people NOT to vote for their main opponents in Scotland - and that last can happen in [edit] rUK with the possible exception of NI. They can do that by promoting policies which Labour and the Tories don't promote, either by example (in truly devolved matters) or direct confrontation (in other matters).
Con supporters are going to see the SNP as a threat because you will support LAB over them, Lab supporters are going to see the SNP as a threat because you are taking 30 seats off them, and because they fear you will push them into policies that will make them unelectable in the future. The SNP is a party from a foreign land, and a whitewash is taken for granted there south of the border, people largely only care what the SNP think to the extent that it is going to blackmail Labour.
So apart from Labour MPs, Labour Councils and Labour's biggest donor.....
.. and most of the charity sector.
Pretty much the whole social care sector uses relief staff on ZHCs. Without that social care costs will spiral out of control or disabled people will receive worse care.
Love it how pb tories think ZHCs are wonderful . A select group of people who have probably never been employed with a ZHC and could not afford to live and pay their bills if they were .
Best interview I've seen from Suzanne Evans under quite strong pressure from Jo co burn on Daily Politics.
She's very assured, probably your best media performer.
She's a nice lady, we canvassed Jaywick together for Carswell
I think Farage is better personally, and Steven Woolfe is the one to watch
Farage is better, but he's absorbed so much of the media's negativity that he's become a bit of a 'bad bank'. I'm pretty sure his bad personal ratings are at least in part a result of people agreeing with UKIP but despairing of the latest 'race' scandal and blaming the fact they often can't openly support UKIP on the leadership.
Whoever succeeds him will have an (albeit very short) honeymoon period in charge, where if they're clever they will establish a strong personal brand that can withstand the inevitable smears in people's minds.
So apart from Labour MPs, Labour Councils and Labour's biggest donor.....
.. and most of the charity sector.
Pretty much the whole social care sector uses relief staff on ZHCs. Without that social care costs will spiral out of control or disabled people will receive worse care.
Love it how pb tories think ZHCs are wonderful . A select group of people who have probably never been employed with a ZHC and could not afford to live and pay their bills if they were .
Interesting how Liberal Democrat Sutton Council use ZHC with all of their outsorced social care plus they also have 383 people on ZHC inhouse...
Ed Miliband suffered a damaging blow today as Labour’s biggest union bankroller was caught in a storm over allegedly using “zero-hour” contracts.
Hours before the TV debate between party leaders, Mr Miliband was hit by the row over claims the Unite union using zero-hour contracts despite publicly campaigning against them.
So apart from Labour MPs, Labour Councils and Labour's biggest donor.....
...and a load of charities - not the fake campaign groups but the genuine charities that run shops, foodbanks, day centres etc. They will be those "Hit Hardest" by Ed's proposals, to resurrect an old phrase.
Comments
Broxtowe; Sherwood; Nuneaton; North Warwickshire; Northampton North; Wolverhampton South West
As Gains probably sees them into power.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jan/30/greens-changing-political-environment
Constituency with the narrowest winning margin.
I'd lay any constituency of your choice at 10/1 if you're interested.
Is this the first time that the Morning Star has been linked to on pb?
Michael looks at govt reports from the time around controversial incidents
I've only seen a couple (have sky plussed) but just watched Mondays episode about sport... He investigated the thinking behind allowing Britain to attend Hitlers 1936 Olympics, the decision not to allow Jack Johnson to fight here, and the football hooliganism of the 80s, interesting
I reckon we could have the farce of someone winning on 20% of the vote.
She doesn't have to appeal to her core vote in Scotland. That's already in the bag and rock solid. What this debate will do is catapult her even higher in their esteem and have the "awww, oor Nic went down there and did us proud". That's the strategy.
Another interesting & related bet would be how many constituencies will have a winning margin of under X votes. Any bookies fancy pricing that one up?
Looking at pension choices on the Aegon website and I'd have more chance of picking the Grand National winner I reckon.
The UK government needs to look very hard at how it helps small and large companies invest in R&D. I remember when I was at Sony it almost felt like we were being penalised when we made heavy investment in the UK (actually anywhere in the EU) compared to our US and Japanese counterparts.
It isn't even about picking winners, it is about giving innovation a chance before American companies come and cherry pick the best start ups.
Over/under 48.5 - 5/6 each
Winning the debate or at least significantly improving perceptions of the SNP outside Scotland makes them far more relevant and stops them being marginalised during the campaign. It keeps them in the national news and stops them being squeezed as usually happens during UK election campaigns.
to paraphrase...
'Looking at pension choices on the Aegon website and I'd have more chance of picking the Grand National winner I reckon.'
Think of it like an ISA in that you have basically two choices, one being an ISA that is plugged into a computer model and simply follows the FTSE up & down with low fees or an ISA that has fund managers that actively manage your investments with of course a higher fee.
Gove, Burnham, Alexander, Alibhai-Brown and Peter Hitchens
No Ukip but Hitchens will fill that void hopefully
I think Farage is better personally, and Steven Woolfe is the one to watch
Ed Miliband suffered a damaging blow today as Labour’s biggest union bankroller was caught in a storm over allegedly using “zero-hour” contracts.
Hours before the TV debate between party leaders, Mr Miliband was hit by the row over claims the Unite union using zero-hour contracts despite publicly campaigning against them.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/labours-biggest-union-donor-used-zerohour-contracts-10151441.html
So apart from Labour MPs, Labour Councils and Labour's biggest donor.....
27% of LD2010 voting LAB, 16% of LD2010 voting CON.
http://www.sunnation.co.uk/the-sun-backs-labour/
"The Sun has sensationally pinned its hopes on Labour for the first time in five years.
No, not those zero hour whinging hypocrites – little Labour the greyhound."
Following PB, I've had a punt on Leanne Wood at 33's but that will be the extent of my post debate interest
Mr. Indigo, spot on with Alibhai-Brown.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/HTorbay-Full-tables-March-20151.pdf
What I don't get is if they're modelling Scotland separately, they should surely deduct a chunk (~23) of seats from Labour's total...
She isn't even standing for election.
The others should remind the audience of that if she ever gets too high and mighty about Westmjnster politics
Monthly "Super-ELBOW" for March 2015: Lab 33.6 (+0.1), Con 33.5 (+1.1), UKIP 14.0 (-0.5), LD 7.7 (nc), Grn 5.6 (-0.7)
Lab lead slashed by 1.1% from 1.2% to only 0.1%
Cons on their highest monthly score since ELBOW started
UKIP on their lowest score since August
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/583381055467614208
Got an important link here you should definitely click on - http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lta21gPm3U1qhy4uu.gif
although I accept that there are, for instance on this site, civilised KIPers and indeed Tories too.
Whoever succeeds him will have an (albeit very short) honeymoon period in charge, where if they're clever they will establish a strong personal brand that can withstand the inevitable smears in people's minds.
Edit: I see Indigo beat me to it below.