politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The other story from the latest Ashcroft marginals’ polling – the sharp decline of UKIP
Apart from the problems facing Nick Clegg and the latest on the CON-LD battles a striking feature of the latest wave of Ashcroft seat polling was the decline of UKIP.
On topic, it will be interesting to see how the 'squeeze' plays out in Scotland - the SNP are orders of magnitude too big, and are much more likely potential victims of tactical voting (tho the polling evidence is that while its there its very small scale) - the Conservatives, while small, still have the Westminster weight behind them....so I guess that leaves the Lib Dems - or have they already been squeezed?.....
Meanwhile, on the topic of nuclear weapons:
Russia has threatened to use “nuclear force” to defend its annexation of Crimea and warned that the “same conditions” that prompted it to take military action in Ukraine exist in the three Baltic states, all members of Nato.
According to notes made by an American at a meeting between Russian generals and US officials – and seen by The Times newspaper - Moscow threatened a “spectrum of responses from nuclear to non-military” if Nato moved more forces into Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.
I see the BBC have picked up on the important front page news that Ed Miliband is a massive hypocrite over ZHC or that Labour have got their own support letter...on no wait...something more pressing....some crap video of an old PMQ's with some crap about "Thug Life" has gone viral on twitter.
A quick check of the last Lab/Con batch and it wasn't spotted that the UKIP share fell in all of these seats as well.
City of Chester-down 5% Croydon Central-down 6% Halesowen-down 9% Nuneaton down 5% South Swindon down 4% Wirral West down 2% Worcester- down 4%
What's interesting is that the fall in the UKIP share hasn't improved the Conservatives prospects in most of these seats or in the LD seats released yesterday.
Bet Cameron wishes the debate wasn't going to happen because they won't want any more big game changers. If it goes on like this the tories are gonna win the election. I've been wrong so far. Storming start by them this week.
So if Ukip's vote is being squeezed in seats like these, it might mean their vote is holding up better in areas where it matters. It's seats, not votes, that matter.
Bet Cameron wishes the debate wasn't going to happen because they won't want any more big game changers. If it goes on like this the tories are gonna win the election. I've been wrong so far. Storming start by them this week.
If he has any sense he will bait Farage into saying something that will get up the nose of the lefties, let them all jump on the outrage bus and start on Farage while he stands back looking Prime-ministerial. If he doesn't have any sense he will attack Miliband and get attacked back by all the lefties while Farage stands there smiling and looking avuncular.
Is there any truth in the claim that Farage made a 3 hr private visit to Ed’s home the other night? - Might have some bearing on how this evenings debate is played out between the two.
Is there any truth in the claim that Farage made a 3 hr private visit to Ed’s home the other night? - Might have some bearing on how this evenings debate is played out between the two.
Is there any truth in the claim that Farage made a 3 hr private visit to Ed’s home the other night? - Might have some bearing on how this evenings debate is played out between the two.
Is there any truth in the claim that Farage made a 3 hr private visit to Ed’s home the other night? - Might have some bearing on how this evenings debate is played out between the two.
Is there any truth in the claim that Farage made a 3 hr private visit to Ed’s home the other night? - Might have some bearing on how this evenings debate is played out between the two.
Morning all! A long shot I know, but what chance that there's a few charities still not taken over by Labour, that are willing to go on record as to how many jobs they will lose under Ed's proposals?
Morning all! A long shot I know, but what chance that there's a few charities still not taken over by Labour, that are willing to go on record as to how many jobs they will lose under Ed's proposals?
Nil.
Even if they are not taken over by Labour, they are going to be fellow travellers, and even if by some miracle they are not, they will be very nervous of offending what might well be the next government.
Is there any truth in the claim that Farage made a 3 hr private visit to Ed’s home the other night? - Might have some bearing on how this evenings debate is played out between the two.
Mr Clarkson has a new-found sympathy for environmental issues, interfaith dialogue, and intersectional feminism and has made friends with columnist Polly Toynbee’ – As if…!
Is there any truth in the claim that Farage made a 3 hr private visit to Ed’s home the other night? - Might have some bearing on how this evenings debate is played out between the two.
Mr Clarkson has a new-found sympathy for environmental issues, interfaith dialogue, and intersectional feminism and has made friends with columnist Polly Toynbee’ – As if…!
Kudos to Amazon for clever marketing as well, the Amazon Dash Button everyone assumed was an April Fools joke, wasn't, so they get two rounds of publicity for the price of one, as everyone now discusses how it wasn't a joke after all.
Is there any truth in the claim that Farage made a 3 hr private visit to Ed’s home the other night? - Might have some bearing on how this evenings debate is played out between the two.
Mr Clarkson has a new-found sympathy for environmental issues, interfaith dialogue, and intersectional feminism and has made friends with columnist Polly Toynbee’ – As if…!
The Guardian really does the best April Fools - going back decades to their several page supplement for the 'Island of San serif' which because of erosion and deposition was slowly moving across the Indian Ocean.
Their Guardian Glasses were good too - filtering out hateful Daily Mail stuff....
We'll know better what is going to happen with UKIP after tonight.
Yep agreed & Indigo below good point.
Dunno how Cameron should play it really. Farage will attack him more than anyone 'cos he hates him and the tories are ukip's threat. Silly ass really because after a probable rise tonight they'll get squeezed again & their real enemy's the left. Some ukippers are so bitter. They remind me of that movement in the CofE called Forward in Faith, or Backward in Bitterness as it used to be known in the vestries.
Big prob for Cameron is that everyone may attack him. But his lectern position is brilliant in one way - on the flank with all the wannabes fighting in middle. Downside of that is getting left out.
Think the LDs may do well though & they're the big unknown. Nick Clegg is a good debater, remember. Cameron & Clegg might pact up a bit which could suit both of them. Clegg needs Cameron's coat tails - coalition success sorting out the country etc.
What Cameron really wants is what Indigo said: the rest of them to kick off against one another.
Is there any truth in the claim that Farage made a 3 hr private visit to Ed’s home the other night? - Might have some bearing on how this evenings debate is played out between the two.
So if Ukip's vote is being squeezed in seats like these, it might mean their vote is holding up better in areas where it matters. It's seats, not votes, that matter.
I expect that when they get 1 to 5 seats we'll be told that the number of second places is important.
We'll know better what is going to happen with UKIP after tonight.
Nah.
The 'true believers' will have their faith enhanced by Nigel's 'triumph/bullying' (delete as appropriate), while the rest will probably go 'they're all as bad as each other - pity I can't vote for one of the sensible women.....'
Is there any truth in the claim that Farage made a 3 hr private visit to Ed’s home the other night? - Might have some bearing on how this evenings debate is played out between the two.
Mr Clarkson has a new-found sympathy for environmental issues, interfaith dialogue, and intersectional feminism and has made friends with columnist Polly Toynbee’ – As if…!
Kudos to Amazon for clever marketing as well, the Amazon Dash Button everyone assumed was an April Fools joke, wasn't, so they get two rounds of publicity for the price of one, as everyone now discusses how it wasn't a joke after all.
So if Ukip's vote is being squeezed in seats like these, it might mean their vote is holding up better in areas where it matters. It's seats, not votes, that matter.
I expect that when they get 1 to 5 seats we'll be told that the number of second places is important.
In the long term getting some solid second places could help too. Everyone starts from 0, but psychologically it helps to convince voters that you might have a chance of winning.
Personally I can't see Ukip making a big breakthrough unless we have a very large recession. I'm sure that won't happen any time soon....
NP's hypothesis about 'skewed panels' - today's YouGov (Con +2) sees Govt approval go from -16 to -10. It also has Tory retention at 80% - high by usual standards (and equal to Labour).
Who is to blame for Council cuts: Central Govt: 40 (-5) Councils: 30 (+4)
Are people starting to take a proper look at politics for the first time now that the campaigns are underway? The economy is dominating the agenda right now and for good reasons - we're emerging from a deep pile of doodoo, but only slowly and with great risk of failure still. It has always been postulated that the 'vote UKIP get Miliband' theme would only really start to resonate in the final run-up. I'm sure alot of UKIP protest votes will go to Dave for the real thing.
Dunno how Cameron should play it really. Farage will attack him more than anyone 'cos he hates him and the tories are ukip's threat. Silly ass really because after a probable rise tonight they'll get squeezed again & their real enemy's the left. Some ukippers are so bitter. They remind me of that movement in the CofE called Forward in Faith, or Backward in Bitterness as it used to be known in the vestries.
I am not sure its just bitterness, there is evidence to show, and certainly general agreement on here, that blue kippers will go home to keep Miliband out, where as red kippers are not interested in going back to Labour. This means Farage's priority is to shore up the blue kipper vote, which is partly about looking to the right of Cameron on social issues, which is easy, and partly about rubbishing Cameron to remind blue kippers why they don't want to go back. Farage's dream is to bait Ed and Dave is to pro EU pro-immigration love-in.
There is no chance of Islington Liberal Ed, and his largely Islington Liberal cabinet making Labour remotely attractive to the WWC, they made a half-hearted attempt with wheeling out Prescott, but his is too peripheral, because Ed is embarrassed about him.
ZHC - if you are on one are you less likely to be in a union ? Suspect so hence why Ed has been told to turn on them.
Its going to be fun. There are merger talking going on between Unite and PCS at the moment, although understandably in a low key so as not to spook the horses, but imagine Miliband beholden to a mega-union with almost 2 million members and donating somewhere north of 15m a year to Labour.
We'll know better what is going to happen with UKIP after tonight.
Maybe a week after - remember the YG Milibounce last Saturday. The debate polls are unlikely to tell us anything - unless Farage takes an axe to Cam on Live TV or Sturgeon tries to ram a bacon sandwich down the Milithroat!
OGH makes much of the Tories 2010 lead tie with Labour among teachers:
For five years teachers have complained about the damaging and ill-considered changes forced upon them by the Conservatives. So why does it appear – based on grumblings heard in staffrooms and across social media – that Labour has yet to secure the teachers’ vote?
The answer, according to National Union of Teachers general secretary, Christine Blower, is that many of her members remain politely but firmly sceptical of Labour and its shadow education secretary, Tristram Hunt.
So if Ukip's vote is being squeezed in seats like these, it might mean their vote is holding up better in areas where it matters. It's seats, not votes, that matter.
I expect that when they get 1 to 5 seats we'll be told that the number of second places is important.
In the long term getting some solid second places could help too. Everyone starts from 0, but psychologically it helps to convince voters that you might have a chance of winning.
Personally I can't see Ukip making a big breakthrough unless we have a very large recession. I'm sure that won't happen any time soon....
I can see other several scenarios where the kipper vote will go up a lot in 2020.
a) There is an EU referendum and it looks like a fix, such as including EU residents in the vote, or votes for kids or whatever, or even worse the referendum gets weaselled. b) A significant Islamic terror campaign which the government of the day reacts in a timorous and inadequate manner which is perceived by the voters as political correctness. c) Financial turmoil in the EU which we end up carrying a lot of the bill before despite assurances that we would not because we are not in the Euro. d) The ongoing CSE investigations engulf the large parties in scandals and resignations.
Surely the one with most to lose tonight is Nick. Last time around with just the 3 of them he starred in the first debate and he got the Cleggasm which at the very least kept everyone interested in them until the election and won them extra votes even if they inevitably lost seats as the Tories recovered from their doldrums.
This time he is one of 7 (and not nearly as interesting as 7 of 9) and like Cameron he is not in the next debate at all. He has got a slot on the QT but by then a chunk of votes will already have been cast.
How does he make his party relevant? So far the media are largely ignoring him and the polling is somewhere between catastrophic and abysmal. The very future of his party is at stake with the role of third party almost inevitably going to be ceded to the SNP. He needs something truly magical to happen tonight and it is going to be hard.
The balancing act of claiming Labour and tories are going to the extremes really isn't going to work well when greater extremes (UKIP, Greens arguably the SNP) are immediately visible making the 2 main parties already look centrist. Where is his USP? He has to surely focus on the success of the Coalition and how the Lib Dems will act as a moderator in a government of either colour. If he starts moaning about the Coalition the last few that care will be wondering what the point of the Lib Dems is.
ZHC - if you are on one are you less likely to be in a union ? Suspect so hence why Ed has been told to turn on them.
I see a distinct parallel between ZHCs and shorthold tenancy arrangements. Both may appear imperfect but they both introduce a flexibility that can suit both parties, which is why they work.
I don’t think Miliband understands what he wants to fix.
As we're now five weeks out, what are the thoughts around here on backing at long odds-on in the constituency markets?
Shadsy has a few 1-50 or 1-100 shots for an annual 10-20% return, that's way better than I'll get from the bank. Examples are Tories to win in Woking or Wiltshire (they are only 1-20 to keep Hague's seat in Richmond!), or Labour to win in the Liverpool seats.
What is the historic chance of one of a dozen of these failing to come in on the night? Obviously it only needs a single mistake at those odds and you're screwed...
Surely the one with most to lose tonight is Nick. Last time around with just the 3 of them he starred in the first debate and he got the Cleggasm which at the very least kept everyone interested in them until the election and won them extra votes even if they inevitably lost seats as the Tories recovered from their doldrums.
This time he is one of 7 (and not nearly as interesting as 7 of 9) and like Cameron he is not in the next debate at all. He has got a slot on the QT but by then a chunk of votes will already have been cast.
How does he make his party relevant? So far the media are largely ignoring him and the polling is somewhere between catastrophic and abysmal. The very future of his party is at stake with the role of third party almost inevitably going to be ceded to the SNP. He needs something truly magical to happen tonight and it is going to be hard.
The balancing act of claiming Labour and tories are going to the extremes really isn't going to work well when greater extremes (UKIP, Greens arguably the SNP) are immediately visible making the 2 main parties already look centrist. Where is his USP? He has to surely focus on the success of the Coalition and how the Lib Dems will act as a moderator in a government of either colour. If he starts moaning about the Coalition the last few that care will be wondering what the point of the Lib Dems is.
We may see stunts from either Nick Clegg or Nigel Farage. Both for different reasons have a vital need to be noticed, even at the risk of alienating much of the audience.
Surely the one with most to lose tonight is Nick. Last time around with just the 3 of them he starred in the first debate and he got the Cleggasm which at the very least kept everyone interested in them until the election and won them extra votes even if they inevitably lost seats as the Tories recovered from their doldrums.
This time he is one of 7 (and not nearly as interesting as 7 of 9) and like Cameron he is not in the next debate at all. He has got a slot on the QT but by then a chunk of votes will already have been cast.
How does he make his party relevant? So far the media are largely ignoring him and the polling is somewhere between catastrophic and abysmal. The very future of his party is at stake with the role of third party almost inevitably going to be ceded to the SNP. He needs something truly magical to happen tonight and it is going to be hard.
The balancing act of claiming Labour and tories are going to the extremes really isn't going to work well when greater extremes (UKIP, Greens arguably the SNP) are immediately visible making the 2 main parties already look centrist. Where is his USP? He has to surely focus on the success of the Coalition and how the Lib Dems will act as a moderator in a government of either colour. If he starts moaning about the Coalition the last few that care will be wondering what the point of the Lib Dems is.
We may see stunts from either Nick Clegg or Nigel Farage. Both for different reasons have a vital need to be noticed, even at the risk of alienating much of the audience.
Stunts? The timing is really tight. Anyone who tries to lay into everyone on that stage will miss. Pick your target and focus. But who? For Farage almost certainly Cameron. For Nick? I think he should really go for Ed and recreate the fantasy that the Lib Dems are the sensible alternatives to the tories. But it is complicated for him.
I don’t think Miliband understands what he wants to fix.
I don't think he even wants to fix it, since its mostly used by public sector and charities anyway, he just wants to look like he wants to fix it, for naked electoral purposes.
Even if he did want to fix it, its next to impossible if both parties like the arrangement, all that will happen is either there will be a lot of people on 1hr contracts, or a lot of people setting up service companies with which they will have 40hr contracts, but which will take whatever contracts are available on whatever terms, so there will be a zero hours business-to-business contract, or a contract for specific services (ie. specified as a deliverable, rather than a number of hours)
As we're now five weeks out, what are the thoughts around here on backing at long odds-on in the constituency markets?
Shadsy has a few 1-50 or 1-100 shots for an annual 10-20% return, that's way better than I'll get from the bank. Examples are Tories to win in Woking or Wiltshire (they are only 1-20 to keep Hague's seat in Richmond!), or Labour to win in the Liverpool seats.
What is the historic chance of one of a dozen of these failing to come in on the night? Obviously it only needs a single mistake at those odds and you're screwed...
I live in Woking and we had a Tory councillor candidate knock at the door last night. I reckon that's the first time in years that we've had someone from the Tories come round and my dad took great pleasure in telling him that we won't be voting for him! The thing that really annoys my dad is that Cameron keeps telling us that the Tories have frozen council tax. Not in Woking they haven't and it's a Tory council!
The Lib Dems are the closest threat to Mr Lord in Woking, so I expect the Tories should hold the Parliamentary seat fairly comfortably. It is, however, hard to say who will come second.
Surely the one with most to lose tonight is Nick. .......He has to surely focus on the success of the Coalition and how the Lib Dems will act as a moderator in a government of either colour. If he starts moaning about the Coalition the last few that care will be wondering what the point of the Lib Dems is.
The time to focus on the success of the Coalition was throughout the past five years. As the Responsible Left, in stark contrast to the two Eds.
The in-but-out-but-in-but.... stance on the Coalition has been a fundamentally stupid piece of positioning, tied to the old way of thinking that the LibDems could ride two horses in different directions.
Surely the one with most to lose tonight is Nick. Last time around with just the 3 of them he starred in the first debate and he got the Cleggasm which at the very least kept everyone interested in them until the election and won them extra votes even if they inevitably lost seats as the Tories recovered from their doldrums.
This time he is one of 7 (and not nearly as interesting as 7 of 9) and like Cameron he is not in the next debate at all. He has got a slot on the QT but by then a chunk of votes will already have been cast.
How does he make his party relevant? So far the media are largely ignoring him and the polling is somewhere between catastrophic and abysmal. The very future of his party is at stake with the role of third party almost inevitably going to be ceded to the SNP. He needs something truly magical to happen tonight and it is going to be hard.
The balancing act of claiming Labour and tories are going to the extremes really isn't going to work well when greater extremes (UKIP, Greens arguably the SNP) are immediately visible making the 2 main parties already look centrist. Where is his USP? He has to surely focus on the success of the Coalition and how the Lib Dems will act as a moderator in a government of either colour. If he starts moaning about the Coalition the last few that care will be wondering what the point of the Lib Dems is.
We may see stunts from either Nick Clegg or Nigel Farage. Both for different reasons have a vital need to be noticed, even at the risk of alienating much of the audience.
Stunts? The timing is really tight. Anyone who tries to lay into everyone on that stage will miss. Pick your target and focus. But who? For Farage almost certainly Cameron. For Nick? I think he should really go for Ed and recreate the fantasy that the Lib Dems are the sensible alternatives to the tories. But it is complicated for him.
I'm not suggesting a Janet Jackson style wardrobe malfunction (though that would keep the papers busy for days). I'm thinking of a brutally unfair attack on something that will scandalise many.
I don't think it's complicated for Nick Clegg. He has to be noticed. He has to take some risks. It almost doesn't matter what risks, so long as he takes them.
I don’t think Miliband understands what he wants to fix.
I don't think he even wants to fix it, since its mostly used by public sector and charities anyway, he just wants to look like he wants to fix it, for naked electoral purposes.
I completely agree. I also question how he plans to fix things for the 15% of the workforce who have chosen potentially much starker route of self-employment.
Surely the one with most to lose tonight is Nick. Last time around with just the 3 of them he starred in the first debate and he got the Cleggasm which at the very least kept everyone interested in them until the election and won them extra votes even if they inevitably lost seats as the Tories recovered from their doldrums.
This time he is one of 7 (and not nearly as interesting as 7 of 9) and like Cameron he is not in the next debate at all. He has got a slot on the QT but by then a chunk of votes will already have been cast.
How does he make his party relevant? So far the media are largely ignoring him and the polling is somewhere between catastrophic and abysmal. The very future of his party is at stake with the role of third party almost inevitably going to be ceded to the SNP. He needs something truly magical to happen tonight and it is going to be hard.
The balancing act of claiming Labour and tories are going to the extremes really isn't going to work well when greater extremes (UKIP, Greens arguably the SNP) are immediately visible making the 2 main parties already look centrist. Where is his USP? He has to surely focus on the success of the Coalition and how the Lib Dems will act as a moderator in a government of either colour. If he starts moaning about the Coalition the last few that care will be wondering what the point of the Lib Dems is.
We may see stunts from either Nick Clegg or Nigel Farage. Both for different reasons have a vital need to be noticed, even at the risk of alienating much of the audience.
Stunts? The timing is really tight. Anyone who tries to lay into everyone on that stage will miss. Pick your target and focus. But who? For Farage almost certainly Cameron. For Nick? I think he should really go for Ed and recreate the fantasy that the Lib Dems are the sensible alternatives to the tories. But it is complicated for him.
The blue fantasy is that Farage decides, as has been said here, that ukip to con swingback is inevitable and decides to go for ed's jugular to consolidate the wwc lab to ukip switchers instead. And that sturgeon joins in. We know ed is 'ard, but is 'e 'ard enough for that scenario?
I am still sort of expecting that someone is going to detonate a ukip horror story timed to damage farage in the debates.
It'll be interesting to see how UKIP do in areas they aspire to gain not necessarily this time, but in the future, particularly northern areas. I still reckon that 2-6 seats is entirely possible. Double figures would be fantastic.
ZHC - if you are on one are you less likely to be in a union ? Suspect so hence why Ed has been told to turn on them.
I see a distinct parallel between ZHCs and shorthold tenancy arrangements. Both may appear imperfect but they both introduce a flexibility that can suit both parties, which is why they work.
I don’t think Miliband understands what he wants to fix.
As with shorthold tenancies it’s the abuse which is the problem, and, as I understand it, Cable has pretty well fixed that by making exclusivity illegal. It’s a bit rough and ready, but as we see with taxation, once you start trying to fine-tune legislation to account for all possible circumstances all you do is create more loopholes.
I don't think it's complicated for Nick Clegg. He has to be noticed. He has to take some risks. It almost doesn't matter what risks, so long as he takes them.
I would expect him to continue with his "party of IN" shtick only at a higher volume. Basically pitch for all the Eurofederalist vote, which while it isn't big, is substantially bigger than 5-6%. He can take that farther than any of the other parties would dare, partly because it goes with the grain of his core and his activists, and partly because there is no one planning to vote for his party it would put off.
Surely the one with most to lose tonight is Nick. .......He has to surely focus on the success of the Coalition and how the Lib Dems will act as a moderator in a government of either colour. If he starts moaning about the Coalition the last few that care will be wondering what the point of the Lib Dems is.
The time to focus on the success of the Coalition was throughout the past five years. As the Responsible Left, in stark contrast to the two Eds.
The in-but-out-but-in-but.... stance on the Coalition has been a fundamentally stupid piece of positioning, tied to the old way of thinking that the LibDems could ride two horses in different directions.
A sensible Clegg should be shouting from the rooftops about the LD successes of the Coalition - lifting the personal allowance, free school meals etc. Instead he seems determined to use the narrative the he stopped the Tories eating babies while apologising for tuition fees and the reduction in the 50% rate. The LDs spent years decades arguing the positives of coalition, now seem determined to only use the negatives of actually being in one!
Nick Clegg on tonight's debate: - "I have been in politics long enough now to know that you shouldn't over-think these things or over-rehearse them,"
"I will try and answer the questions as best as I can and make sure that the Liberal Democrat voice is heard loud and clear in the cacophony of other political voices that will be represented on that stage."
Personally, I am not expecting anything too controversial from Clegg’s performance tonight, and certainly nothing as dramatic or entertaining as a wardrobe malfunction.
Mr. Gadfly, not sure how long the debate is (half and a half) but he's only going to have probably 13 minutes or so to speak. That's not enough to bore people.
As we're now five weeks out, what are the thoughts around here on backing at long odds-on in the constituency markets?
Shadsy has a few 1-50 or 1-100 shots for an annual 10-20% return, that's way better than I'll get from the bank. Examples are Tories to win in Woking or Wiltshire (they are only 1-20 to keep Hague's seat in Richmond!), or Labour to win in the Liverpool seats.
What is the historic chance of one of a dozen of these failing to come in on the night? Obviously it only needs a single mistake at those odds and you're screwed...
I live in Woking and we had a Tory councillor candidate knock at the door last night. I reckon that's the first time in years that we've had someone from the Tories come round and my dad took great pleasure in telling him that we won't be voting for him! The thing that really annoys my dad is that Cameron keeps telling us that the Tories have frozen council tax. Not in Woking they haven't and it's a Tory council!
The Lib Dems are the closest threat to Mr Lord in Woking, so I expect the Tories should hold the Parliamentary seat fairly comfortably. It is, however, hard to say who will come second.
Interesting, thanks. I grew up close by in NE Hampshire (a couple of stops down the line towards Basingstoke), it doesn't seem to have changed much politically in the intervening 20 years.
I would have thought even at 1-20 there is still some value there (barring a massive local scandal, which becomes less likely the closer we get to polling day).
I am not convinced that Farage will achieve much from tonight's debates.
His act is limited to a false bonhomie coupled with a pretentiousness about how the country's woes can be so easily fixed.
I suspect that more and more people are beginning to see him as the pub bore.
Farage's stock in this debate will largely depend on how the others handle it. If there is a lot of bullshit and hand-waving, or pure evasiveness, from especially Dave, Ed and Nick and he gives the impression of plain speaking, that usually goes down well with his target audience.
As we're now five weeks out, what are the thoughts around here on backing at long odds-on in the constituency markets?
Shadsy has a few 1-50 or 1-100 shots for an annual 10-20% return, that's way better than I'll get from the bank. Examples are Tories to win in Woking or Wiltshire (they are only 1-20 to keep Hague's seat in Richmond!), or Labour to win in the Liverpool seats.
What is the historic chance of one of a dozen of these failing to come in on the night? Obviously it only needs a single mistake at those odds and you're screwed...
Doncaster North is 1-20 for Labour, Richmond Yorks at 1-14 looks good too, but I have no idea who "Robin Scott" is.
Surely the one with most to lose tonight is Nick. Last time around with just the 3 of them he starred in the first debate and he got the Cleggasm which at the very least kept everyone interested in them until the election and won them extra votes even if they inevitably lost seats as the Tories recovered from their doldrums.
This time he is one of 7 (and not nearly as interesting as 7 of 9) and like Cameron he is not in the next debate at all. He has got a slot on the QT but by then a chunk of votes will already have been cast.
How does he make his party relevant? So far the media are largely ignoring him and the polling is somewhere between catastrophic and abysmal. The very future of his party is at stake with the role of third party almost inevitably going to be ceded to the SNP. He needs something truly magical to happen tonight and it is going to be hard.
The balancing act of claiming Labour and tories are going to the extremes really isn't going to work well when greater extremes (UKIP, Greens arguably the SNP) are immediately visible making the 2 main parties already look centrist. Where is his USP? He has to surely focus on the success of the Coalition and how the Lib Dems will act as a moderator in a government of either colour. If he starts moaning about the Coalition the last few that care will be wondering what the point of the Lib Dems is.
We may see stunts from either Nick Clegg or Nigel Farage. Both for different reasons have a vital need to be noticed, even at the risk of alienating much of the audience.
With so many participants, there could be a Black Cygnet event. One of the leaders (because the odds say that one might, and they would have the time to concoct it) distinguishes themselves particularly well or badly and grabs all the headlines.
As we're now five weeks out, what are the thoughts around here on backing at long odds-on in the constituency markets?
Shadsy has a few 1-50 or 1-100 shots for an annual 10-20% return, that's way better than I'll get from the bank. Examples are Tories to win in Woking or Wiltshire (they are only 1-20 to keep Hague's seat in Richmond!), or Labour to win in the Liverpool seats.
What is the historic chance of one of a dozen of these failing to come in on the night? Obviously it only needs a single mistake at those odds and you're screwed...
Doncaster North is 1-20 for Labour, Richmond Yorks at 1-14 looks good too, but I have no idea who "Robin Scott" is.
ZHC - if you are on one are you less likely to be in a union ? Suspect so hence why Ed has been told to turn on them.
I see a distinct parallel between ZHCs and shorthold tenancy arrangements. Both may appear imperfect but they both introduce a flexibility that can suit both parties, which is why they work.
I don’t think Miliband understands what he wants to fix.
As with shorthold tenancies it’s the abuse which is the problem, and, as I understand it, Cable has pretty well fixed that by making exclusivity illegal. It’s a bit rough and ready, but as we see with taxation, once you start trying to fine-tune legislation to account for all possible circumstances all you do is create more loopholes.
Precisely. One of my sons has been employed on a ZHC since Christmas. It has provided him with well paid work that would not have otherwise been offered, and introduced him to an employer who was extremely reluctant about taking anybody on. Both parties have won, and in an area with very few job opportunities, permanent employment now seems inevitable.
Surely the one with most to lose tonight is Nick. Last time around with just the 3 of them he starred in the first debate and he got the Cleggasm which at the very least kept everyone interested in them until the election and won them extra votes even if they inevitably lost seats as the Tories recovered from their doldrums.
This time he is one of 7 (and not nearly as interesting as 7 of 9) and like Cameron he is not in the next debate at all. He has got a slot on the QT but by then a chunk of votes will already have been cast.
How does he make his party relevant? So far the media are largely ignoring him and the polling is somewhere between catastrophic and abysmal. The very future of his party is at stake with the role of third party almost inevitably going to be ceded to the SNP. He needs something truly magical to happen tonight and it is going to be hard.
The balancing act of claiming Labour and tories are going to the extremes really isn't going to work well when greater extremes (UKIP, Greens arguably the SNP) are immediately visible making the 2 main parties already look centrist. Where is his USP? He has to surely focus on the success of the Coalition and how the Lib Dems will act as a moderator in a government of either colour. If he starts moaning about the Coalition the last few that care will be wondering what the point of the Lib Dems is.
We may see stunts from either Nick Clegg or Nigel Farage. Both for different reasons have a vital need to be noticed, even at the risk of alienating much of the audience.
With so many participants, there could be a Black Cygnet event. One of the leaders (because the odds say that one might, and they would have the time to concoct it) distinguishes themselves particularly well or badly and grabs all the headlines.
Just so. Look at those who most need it as the possible source.
On topic, it will be interesting to see how the 'squeeze' plays out in Scotland - the SNP are orders of magnitude too big, and are much more likely potential victims of tactical voting (tho the polling evidence is that while its there its very small scale) - the Conservatives, while small, still have the Westminster weight behind them....so I guess that leaves the Lib Dems - or have they already been squeezed?.....
Meanwhile, on the topic of nuclear weapons:
Russia has threatened to use “nuclear force” to defend its annexation of Crimea and warned that the “same conditions” that prompted it to take military action in Ukraine exist in the three Baltic states, all members of Nato.
According to notes made by an American at a meeting between Russian generals and US officials – and seen by The Times newspaper - Moscow threatened a “spectrum of responses from nuclear to non-military” if Nato moved more forces into Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.
'orders of magnitude too big' - that implies that the SNP are at least 100 (10 x 10) times 'too big', whatever that means ... aren't you being a wee bit subjective?
Mr. Gadfly, not sure how long the debate is (half and a half) but he's only going to have probably 13 minutes or so to speak. That's not enough to bore people.
I accept that, but have personally found that I wish to listen to him less and less, and that I have begun to perceive him as a broken record. The polls suggest that I may not be alone.
As we're now five weeks out, what are the thoughts around here on backing at long odds-on in the constituency markets?
Shadsy has a few 1-50 or 1-100 shots for an annual 10-20% return, that's way better than I'll get from the bank. Examples are Tories to win in Woking or Wiltshire (they are only 1-20 to keep Hague's seat in Richmond!), or Labour to win in the Liverpool seats.
What is the historic chance of one of a dozen of these failing to come in on the night? Obviously it only needs a single mistake at those odds and you're screwed...
Doncaster North is 1-20 for Labour, Richmond Yorks at 1-14 looks good too, but I have no idea who "Robin Scott" is.
What about the Boris seat?
Shadsy has him 1-50.
I was thinking more about the very safe seats where no-one will be paying attention - the likelyhood of a Boris (or even EdM) being undone by an organised campaign or scandal must be higher than in the surrounding seats, surely?
To contradict myself, Cameron is 1-500 in Witney - anyone with a hundred grand spare that they want to lend Shadsy for 5 weeks?
I finally took the Telegraph 'which party for you survey?' and got ...
UKIP - 60% Conservatives - 55% Liberal Democrats - 53% Labour - 47% Green Party - 40%
I expected to be a bit NOTA but the only surprise was the Green vote which was quite high.
Tribally, I can't vote Tory. I'm too old to vote Green. I've always voted Labour or LD before but just for fun I'll vote Ukip as I should. I've become the dice man. I expect my IQ has dropped dramatically.
The Labour candidate, a granny with a predilection for kicking opponents, is certain to win anyway.
Ukip and the other minor parties will drift down as the BBC concentrates on the big two but black swans may be hovering.
I only thought Clegg would do well because the present LD share can hardly get any worse, can it?
I'm expecting a Farage bounce unfortunately which should then fade over the next 5 weeks. But the tories will be delighted at setting the agenda and winning the first few days.
I guess Cameron's calling card re Farage is the In-Out EU referendum. Assuming he gets that across it really only leaves Farage moaning about dirty foreigners. Given how employed-up Britain currently is that also should be fairly easy to lance.
Do you know any British student fruit-pickers? Nope. Me neither.
On topic, it will be interesting to see how the 'squeeze' plays out in Scotland - the SNP are orders of magnitude too big, and are much more likely potential victims of tactical voting (tho the polling evidence is that while its there its very small scale) - the Conservatives, while small, still have the Westminster weight behind them....so I guess that leaves the Lib Dems - or have they already been squeezed?.....
Meanwhile, on the topic of nuclear weapons:
Russia has threatened to use “nuclear force” to defend its annexation of Crimea and warned that the “same conditions” that prompted it to take military action in Ukraine exist in the three Baltic states, all members of Nato.
According to notes made by an American at a meeting between Russian generals and US officials – and seen by The Times newspaper - Moscow threatened a “spectrum of responses from nuclear to non-military” if Nato moved more forces into Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.
'orders of magnitude too big' - that implies that the SNP are at least 100 (10 x 10) times 'too big', whatever that means ... aren't you being a wee bit subjective?
[edited to put in the missing 'times']
And this morning's pedantry prize is awarded to.......
Even when we compliment the Nats they find something to complain about.......
Last night watched a repeat of a programme giving the history of the Welsh Valleys, often illustrated by pictures of the changing times. It gave a very good illustration of the impact of technology and globalisation on the health or misery of that local economy.
When the Industrial Revolution hit Wales, people came from many places to the Valleys to work in the coal mines and iron and steel mills - much of which was exported globally. By the 1920s and 1930s, new and cheaper sources of those raw materials and finished products had been found outside the UK and so those industries slumped.
Post WW2 provided a new impetus for those industries due to destruction from bombing and war, but soon oil, gas and electricity ( as well as the Clean Air Act) replaced the need for coal and those industries slumped again - almost to extinction. Even the miners who took over pits could not make them work long term.
However, the people who lived through those times showed a pride in their work and a hunger for education for themselves and their children. Today it would appear that much of that pride and hunger has been lost (to the detriment of the UK as a whole and to their communities). It has been replaced by a complacency that HMG will keep us in enough comfort to live and many people have lost that motivation for self-improvement for themselves and their children.
But few politicians are awake to the fact that the world does not owe anyone in the UK a living and this is shown by the near dinosauric policies of many of our political parties. The world has moved on and there cannot be any return to the past and we have to try and shape our circumstances to the demands of the global and technical revolution that is going on around us.
Some PBers are developing business globally whilst others want to revert to past times and privileges that are no longer there and so mirror the political party leaders. Will we see any real thought innovation for GB at the debate tonight - I sincerely doubt it.
norman smith @BBCNormanS 20m20 minutes ago I wd prefer if county was not better off rather than allow immigration to keep rising - @Nigel_Farage@BBCr4today
James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers 17m17 minutes ago Extremely difficult, tetchy #todayprog interview for Farage, who is already accusing BBC of "clear bias" #GE2015
Robin Brant @robindbrant 15m15 minutes ago think @Nigel_Farage will want to be more in control of his performance on TV debate tonight than he was in that @BBCRadio4 today iv #ge2015
Nigel Farage @Nigel_Farage 14m14 minutes ago @robindbrant Maybe we'll have a moderator who doesn't display glaring establishment party bias tonight, eh?
You can see why Cameron didn't want too many of these "debates". Today's news is filled up with the media's own self-interested talking-up and all we will hear about tomorrow is who came across best or who made a gaffe with very little about actual policy. Radio 4 pretended it was the best opportunity for "direct contact with the voters" whereas the politicians would be better off continuing their tours of the country.
On topic, it will be interesting to see how the 'squeeze' plays out in Scotland - the SNP are orders of magnitude too big, and are much more likely potential victims of tactical voting (tho the polling evidence is that while its there its very small scale) - the Conservatives, while small, still have the Westminster weight behind them....so I guess that leaves the Lib Dems - or have they already been squeezed?.....
Meanwhile, on the topic of nuclear weapons:
Russia has threatened to use “nuclear force” to defend its annexation of Crimea and warned that the “same conditions” that prompted it to take military action in Ukraine exist in the three Baltic states, all members of Nato.
According to notes made by an American at a meeting between Russian generals and US officials – and seen by The Times newspaper - Moscow threatened a “spectrum of responses from nuclear to non-military” if Nato moved more forces into Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.
'orders of magnitude too big' - that implies that the SNP are at least 100 (10 x 10) times 'too big', whatever that means ... aren't you being a wee bit subjective?
[edited to put in the missing 'times']
And this morning's pedantry prize is awarded to.......
Even when we compliment the Nats they find something to complain about.......
Thank you ever so much, that's my achievement for the day! I was, in fact, surprised by the implications of what you seemed to be saying that it was as well to check ...
Where there isn’t a fierce constituency fight going on, the non-marginals in the red and blue heartlands, then UKIP might fare better. That is precisely what happened to the LDs in 2010. The Cleggasm did happen – but not in seats where it was going to affect the result.
This is why the Tory vote will be more efficiently spread than previous elections, so the risk of the Conservatives winning on votes but not on seats diminishes (but probably doesn't disappear).
One thing I did notice in the R4 Farage interview is that he has picked up that annoying smug Salmond/Sturgeon nervous tick of laughing at his own jokes. Just makes him look more pompous.
I guess Cameron's calling card re Farage is the In-Out EU referendum. Assuming he gets that across it really only leaves Farage moaning about dirty foreigners. Given how employed-up Britain currently is that also should be fairly easy to lance.
That doesn't fly very far, kippers are not going to vote against any EU referendum bill, and in the Midlands and the north might actually add to the pro-referendum vote by taking votes from Labour.
Cameron has missed a trick here I think. He is so desperate to distance himself from the kippers, when in reality they are mostly picking up votes in the south in safe Tory seats and wont make a lot of difference, that his misses the opportunity to reduce the Labour vote in the Midlands and the North which in turn increases his chance of a majority. If the kippers were doing a bit better and took 6-8 seats from Labour in places like Heywood and Middleton he would be much closer to a majority.
You can see why Cameron didn't want too many of these "debates". Today's news is filled up with the media's own self-interested talking-up and all we will hear about tomorrow is who came across best or who made a gaffe with very little about actual policy. Radio 4 pretended it was the best opportunity for "direct contact with the voters" whereas the politicians would be better off continuing their tours of the country.
I think Cameron is of the opinion that the debates cost him an overall majority last time.
They are a creation of the media, for the media. Half the campaign days in 2010 the media led with the build up to the debate, the debate itself and the fallout from the debate before starting the cycle again. Meanwhile the leaders spend time preparing instead of campaigning - while the media talked about themselves instead of what was actually happening in the campaign itself.
I finally took the Telegraph 'which party for you survey?' and got ...
UKIP - 60% Conservatives - 55% Liberal Democrats - 53% Labour - 47% Green Party - 40%
I expected to be a bit NOTA but the only surprise was the Green vote which was quite high.
Tribally, I can't vote Tory. I'm too old to vote Green. I've always voted Labour or LD before but just for fun I'll vote Ukip as I should. I've become the dice man. I expect my IQ has dropped dramatically.
The Labour candidate, a granny with a predilection for kicking opponents, is certain to win anyway.
Ukip and the other minor parties will drift down as the BBC concentrates on the big two but black swans may be hovering.
Do black swans hover? Surely they swoop gracefully down?
And as the queen owns all the mute swans, does that mean that a black mute swan event has actually been ordered by her majesty?
You can see why Cameron didn't want too many of these "debates". Today's news is filled up with the media's own self-interested talking-up and all we will hear about tomorrow is who came across best or who made a gaffe with very little about actual policy. Radio 4 pretended it was the best opportunity for "direct contact with the voters" whereas the politicians would be better off continuing their tours of the country.
Comments
Meanwhile, on the topic of nuclear weapons:
Russia has threatened to use “nuclear force” to defend its annexation of Crimea and warned that the “same conditions” that prompted it to take military action in Ukraine exist in the three Baltic states, all members of Nato.
According to notes made by an American at a meeting between Russian generals and US officials – and seen by The Times newspaper - Moscow threatened a “spectrum of responses from nuclear to non-military” if Nato moved more forces into Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-threatens-to-use-nuclear-force-over-crimea-and-the-baltic-states-10150565.html
Oh and their poll watch is out of date.
Wtf?
68 of the party’s MPs were revealed to have employed staff on zero-hours contracts over the past two years;
22,000 more of the contracts were handed out by Labour-run councils, including Doncaster where Mr Miliband is standing for MP;
Employers and legal experts said his crackdown would cost scores of jobs;
Statisticians accused Labour of using ‘unjustified’ propaganda;
City of Chester-down 5%
Croydon Central-down 6%
Halesowen-down 9%
Nuneaton down 5%
South Swindon down 4%
Wirral West down 2%
Worcester- down 4%
What's interesting is that the fall in the UKIP share hasn't improved the Conservatives prospects in most of these seats or in the LD seats released yesterday.
https://fullfact.org/factcheck/economy/zero_hour_contracts_facts-41165
Labour claim: “There are three times as many zero hour contracts now as 2010”
This is unjustified.
Is there any truth in the claim that Farage made a 3 hr private visit to Ed’s home the other night? - Might have some bearing on how this evenings debate is played out between the two.
50 hours 50 minutes 50 seconds
Ukip officials refuse to comment on late-night Nigel Farage visit to Ed Miliband's home. Lasted 3 hours, say sources
https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/583164471016841217
It was a April Fool.
A long shot I know, but what chance that there's a few charities still not taken over by Labour, that are willing to go on record as to how many jobs they will lose under Ed's proposals?
Even if they are not taken over by Labour, they are going to be fellow travellers, and even if by some miracle they are not, they will be very nervous of offending what might well be the next government.
Mr Clarkson has a new-found sympathy for environmental issues, interfaith dialogue, and intersectional feminism and has made friends with columnist Polly Toynbee’ – As if…!
Their Guardian Glasses were good too - filtering out hateful Daily Mail stuff....
Dunno how Cameron should play it really. Farage will attack him more than anyone 'cos he hates him and the tories are ukip's threat. Silly ass really because after a probable rise tonight they'll get squeezed again & their real enemy's the left. Some ukippers are so bitter. They remind me of that movement in the CofE called Forward in Faith, or Backward in Bitterness as it used to be known in the vestries.
Big prob for Cameron is that everyone may attack him. But his lectern position is brilliant in one way - on the flank with all the wannabes fighting in middle. Downside of that is getting left out.
Think the LDs may do well though & they're the big unknown. Nick Clegg is a good debater, remember. Cameron & Clegg might pact up a bit which could suit both of them. Clegg needs Cameron's coat tails - coalition success sorting out the country etc.
What Cameron really wants is what Indigo said: the rest of them to kick off against one another.
The 'true believers' will have their faith enhanced by Nigel's 'triumph/bullying' (delete as appropriate), while the rest will probably go 'they're all as bad as each other - pity I can't vote for one of the sensible women.....'
Personally I can't see Ukip making a big breakthrough unless we have a very large recession. I'm sure that won't happen any time soon....
Who is to blame for Council cuts:
Central Govt: 40 (-5)
Councils: 30 (+4)
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/qor6izxq75/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-010415.pdf
There is no chance of Islington Liberal Ed, and his largely Islington Liberal cabinet making Labour remotely attractive to the WWC, they made a half-hearted attempt with wheeling out Prescott, but his is too peripheral, because Ed is embarrassed about him.
For five years teachers have complained about the damaging and ill-considered changes forced upon them by the Conservatives. So why does it appear – based on grumblings heard in staffrooms and across social media – that Labour has yet to secure the teachers’ vote?
The answer, according to National Union of Teachers general secretary, Christine Blower, is that many of her members remain politely but firmly sceptical of Labour and its shadow education secretary, Tristram Hunt.
http://www.theguardian.com/education/2015/apr/02/teachers-dont-like-the-tories-so-why-isnt-labour-benefiting
a) There is an EU referendum and it looks like a fix, such as including EU residents in the vote, or votes for kids or whatever, or even worse the referendum gets weaselled.
b) A significant Islamic terror campaign which the government of the day reacts in a timorous and inadequate manner which is perceived by the voters as political correctness.
c) Financial turmoil in the EU which we end up carrying a lot of the bill before despite assurances that we would not because we are not in the Euro.
d) The ongoing CSE investigations engulf the large parties in scandals and resignations.
This time he is one of 7 (and not nearly as interesting as 7 of 9) and like Cameron he is not in the next debate at all. He has got a slot on the QT but by then a chunk of votes will already have been cast.
How does he make his party relevant? So far the media are largely ignoring him and the polling is somewhere between catastrophic and abysmal. The very future of his party is at stake with the role of third party almost inevitably going to be ceded to the SNP. He needs something truly magical to happen tonight and it is going to be hard.
The balancing act of claiming Labour and tories are going to the extremes really isn't going to work well when greater extremes (UKIP, Greens arguably the SNP) are immediately visible making the 2 main parties already look centrist. Where is his USP? He has to surely focus on the success of the Coalition and how the Lib Dems will act as a moderator in a government of either colour. If he starts moaning about the Coalition the last few that care will be wondering what the point of the Lib Dems is.
I don’t think Miliband understands what he wants to fix.
Shadsy has a few 1-50 or 1-100 shots for an annual 10-20% return, that's way better than I'll get from the bank. Examples are Tories to win in Woking or Wiltshire (they are only 1-20 to keep Hague's seat in Richmond!), or Labour to win in the Liverpool seats.
What is the historic chance of one of a dozen of these failing to come in on the night? Obviously it only needs a single mistake at those odds and you're screwed...
Even if he did want to fix it, its next to impossible if both parties like the arrangement, all that will happen is either there will be a lot of people on 1hr contracts, or a lot of people setting up service companies with which they will have 40hr contracts, but which will take whatever contracts are available on whatever terms, so there will be a zero hours business-to-business contract, or a contract for specific services (ie. specified as a deliverable, rather than a number of hours)
The Lib Dems are the closest threat to Mr Lord in Woking, so I expect the Tories should hold the Parliamentary seat fairly comfortably. It is, however, hard to say who will come second.
The in-but-out-but-in-but.... stance on the Coalition has been a fundamentally stupid piece of positioning, tied to the old way of thinking that the LibDems could ride two horses in different directions.
I don't think it's complicated for Nick Clegg. He has to be noticed. He has to take some risks. It almost doesn't matter what risks, so long as he takes them.
I am still sort of expecting that someone is going to detonate a ukip horror story timed to damage farage in the debates.
It'll be interesting to see how UKIP do in areas they aspire to gain not necessarily this time, but in the future, particularly northern areas. I still reckon that 2-6 seats is entirely possible. Double figures would be fantastic.
His act is limited to a false bonhomie coupled with a pretentiousness about how the country's woes can be so easily fixed.
I suspect that more and more people are beginning to see him as the pub bore.
"I will try and answer the questions as best as I can and make sure that the Liberal Democrat voice is heard loud and clear in the cacophony of other political voices that will be represented on that stage."
Personally, I am not expecting anything too controversial from Clegg’s performance tonight, and certainly nothing as dramatic or entertaining as a wardrobe malfunction.
I would have thought even at 1-20 there is still some value there (barring a massive local scandal, which becomes less likely the closer we get to polling day).
https://yougov.co.uk/#/centre
[edited to put in the missing 'times']
I was thinking more about the very safe seats where no-one will be paying attention - the likelyhood of a Boris (or even EdM) being undone by an organised campaign or scandal must be higher than in the surrounding seats, surely?
To contradict myself, Cameron is 1-500 in Witney - anyone with a hundred grand spare that they want to lend Shadsy for 5 weeks?
I finally took the Telegraph 'which party for you survey?' and got ...
UKIP - 60%
Conservatives - 55%
Liberal Democrats - 53%
Labour - 47%
Green Party - 40%
I expected to be a bit NOTA but the only surprise was the Green vote which was quite high.
Tribally, I can't vote Tory. I'm too old to vote Green. I've always voted Labour or LD before but just for fun I'll vote Ukip as I should. I've become the dice man. I expect my IQ has dropped dramatically.
The Labour candidate, a granny with a predilection for kicking opponents, is certain to win anyway.
Ukip and the other minor parties will drift down as the BBC concentrates on the big two but black swans may be hovering.
I'm expecting a Farage bounce unfortunately which should then fade over the next 5 weeks. But the tories will be delighted at setting the agenda and winning the first few days.
I guess Cameron's calling card re Farage is the In-Out EU referendum. Assuming he gets that across it really only leaves Farage moaning about dirty foreigners. Given how employed-up Britain currently is that also should be fairly easy to lance.
Do you know any British student fruit-pickers? Nope. Me neither.
Even when we compliment the Nats they find something to complain about.......
That surprised me.
When the Industrial Revolution hit Wales, people came from many places to the Valleys to work in the coal mines and iron and steel mills - much of which was exported globally. By the 1920s and 1930s, new and cheaper sources of those raw materials and finished products had been found outside the UK and so those industries slumped.
Post WW2 provided a new impetus for those industries due to destruction from bombing and war, but soon oil, gas and electricity ( as well as the Clean Air Act) replaced the need for coal and those industries slumped again - almost to extinction. Even the miners who took over pits could not make them work long term.
However, the people who lived through those times showed a pride in their work and a hunger for education for themselves and their children. Today it would appear that much of that pride and hunger has been lost (to the detriment of the UK as a whole and to their communities). It has been replaced by a complacency that HMG will keep us in enough comfort to live and many people have lost that motivation for self-improvement for themselves and their children.
But few politicians are awake to the fact that the world does not owe anyone in the UK a living and this is shown by the near dinosauric policies of many of our political parties. The world has moved on and there cannot be any return to the past and we have to try and shape our circumstances to the demands of the global and technical revolution that is going on around us.
Some PBers are developing business globally whilst others want to revert to past times and privileges that are no longer there and so mirror the political party leaders. Will we see any real thought innovation for GB at the debate tonight - I sincerely doubt it.
I wd prefer if county was not better off rather than allow immigration to keep rising - @Nigel_Farage @BBCr4today
James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers 17m17 minutes ago
Extremely difficult, tetchy #todayprog interview for Farage, who is already accusing BBC of "clear bias" #GE2015
Robin Brant @robindbrant 15m15 minutes ago
think @Nigel_Farage will want to be more in control of his performance on TV debate tonight than he was in that @BBCRadio4 today iv #ge2015
Nigel Farage @Nigel_Farage 14m14 minutes ago
@robindbrant Maybe we'll have a moderator who doesn't display glaring establishment party bias tonight, eh?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-threatens-to-use-nuclear-force-over-crimea-and-the-baltic-states-10150565.html
Still wanting to scrap Trident, Nicola?
Where there isn’t a fierce constituency fight going on, the non-marginals in the red and blue heartlands, then UKIP might fare better. That is precisely what happened to the LDs in 2010. The Cleggasm did happen – but not in seats where it was going to affect the result.
This is why the Tory vote will be more efficiently spread than previous elections, so the risk of the Conservatives winning on votes but not on seats diminishes (but probably doesn't disappear).
http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/uk-general-election-predictions/
Cameron has missed a trick here I think. He is so desperate to distance himself from the kippers, when in reality they are mostly picking up votes in the south in safe Tory seats and wont make a lot of difference, that his misses the opportunity to reduce the Labour vote in the Midlands and the North which in turn increases his chance of a majority. If the kippers were doing a bit better and took 6-8 seats from Labour in places like Heywood and Middleton he would be much closer to a majority.
They are a creation of the media, for the media. Half the campaign days in 2010 the media led with the build up to the debate, the debate itself and the fallout from the debate before starting the cycle again. Meanwhile the leaders spend time preparing instead of campaigning - while the media talked about themselves instead of what was actually happening in the campaign itself.
And as the queen owns all the mute swans, does that mean that a black mute swan event has actually been ordered by her majesty?