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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The other story from the latest Ashcroft marginals’ polling

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  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    @Financier - Seeing R&D as an expensive luxury is part of the British disease. As are outdated working practices and technology. We have had one of the most deregulated labour markets anywhere in Europe for three decades now. It is not unions that have held us back; it is managements and our investment culture. Look at the performance of companies elsewhere in countries with far stronger labour laws than ours and similar levels of educational attainment.

    We don't produce R&D-based companies because our investors walk a mile from them - they are an upfront expense and returns do not fit the schedules they demand. Look at graphene: first produced in this country, but taken forward elsewhere by foreign businesses because none in the UK wanted to get involved.

  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
    edited April 2015

    Who is Dozey?

    Natalie Bennett leader of The Green Party
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Ukip averaged 11% in the Ashcroft seats yesterday on the 2nd question (better in the first), in areas they weren't contenders.. It's not really that bad ,
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Wheels coming off the Milibandwagon ZHC?

    Poor quality case, broke after one day, not good value for money.

    https://www.politicshome.com/party-politics/articles/story/labour-letter-signatory-wayne-hemingway-admits-hiring-unpaid-interns
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Financier said:

    Nick Clegg could have a difficult time tonight as currently he seems to have each foot placed either side of a great divide. He wants to claim success for the economy, tax levels etc, but also wants to be pro-Europe, pro-immigration etc. Will he just prevaricate?

    Ms Wood is far to the left of EdM, is a republican and an idealist. She bemoans lack of investment (UK and global) in Wales but when asked why a global country should invest there, she cannot come up with an answer. The truth is that Wales' reputation on health and education is too well known and so Wales struggles to recruit good doctors and surgeons, good academics and industrialists.

    I share your thoughts on education. But in turn it falls back to aspiration of the parents. If they are content to live off subsidies ("investment") whether from English Mansions or North Sea Oil, then there is no incentive to work hard.

    Britain generally, and Wales and Scotland in particular, used to have a strong culture of the Protestant work ethic. Without some return of that spirit we are never going to achieve in education or anything else.

    Nicky Morgan is continuing the work in England on Education, but in a more low key way.

    "Content to live off subsidies" - can you define that a bit more precisely? As that well-known leftie Boris Johnson said yesterday, there are plenty of very well paid company CEOs who are effectively subsidised by the state topping up on the extremely low wages they pay their very hard working employees.

    Out there in the real world, if you are working all day with a long commute on top because you cannot afford to live close to your employment (see cleaners etc in London), then you do not have the time - literally - to do much else. Many children are left to their own devices not because their parents are feckless wasters content to live off the state, but because their parents are only at home at the extreme ends of each day.

    By "content to live off subsidies" I mean the desire to have everything provided by taxes on someone else; whether Mansion tax, 50% rate or North Sea Oil.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    @Indigo - the vast majority of benefits paid in this country are to people who work (and to pensioners). Can you explain how in-work benefits encourage the people who receive them to sit on their couches all day?
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @SouthamObserver

    It has been the "Bane of Britain" for decades now. Blame the workers and pay those at the top ever more for pointing out who is at fault, rather than look at the problems with a fresh and unprejudiced eye.
    The whipping boys can of course be replaced according to taste and convenience.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672

    Financier said:

    Nick Clegg could have a difficult time tonight as currently he seems to have each foot placed either side of a great divide. He wants to claim success for the economy, tax levels etc, but also wants to be pro-Europe, pro-immigration etc. Will he just prevaricate?

    Ms Wood is far to the left of EdM, is a republican and an idealist. She bemoans lack of investment (UK and global) in Wales but when asked why a global country should invest there, she cannot come up with an answer. The truth is that Wales' reputation on health and education is too well known and so Wales struggles to recruit good doctors and surgeons, good academics and industrialists.

    I share your thoughts on education. But in turn it falls back to aspiration of the parents. If they are content to live off subsidies ("investment") whether from English Mansions or North Sea Oil, then there is no incentive to work hard.

    Britain generally, and Wales and Scotland in particular, used to have a strong culture of the Protestant work ethic. Without some return of that spirit we are never going to achieve in education or anything else.

    Nicky Morgan is continuing the work in England on Education, but in a more low key way.

    "Content to live off subsidies" - can you define that a bit more precisely? As that well-known leftie Boris Johnson said yesterday, there are plenty of very well paid company CEOs who are effectively subsidised by the state topping up on the extremely low wages they pay their very hard working employees.

    Out there in the real world, if you are working all day with a long commute on top because you cannot afford to live close to your employment (see cleaners etc in London), then you do not have the time - literally - to do much else. Many children are left to their own devices not because their parents are feckless wasters content to live off the state, but because their parents are only at home at the extreme ends of each day.

    By "content to live off subsidies" I mean the desire to have everything provided by taxes on someone else; whether Mansion tax, 50% rate or North Sea Oil.

    Given that most benefits are paid to people who work, those receiving the biggest subsidies are low-pay employers.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,963
    Indigo Not entirely true, Japan has unemployment insurance and more Asian nations are introducing it as they develop, China also has recently introduced a minimum income including for those out of work.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I'm a huge DIY nut - all self taught and had what felt like the contents of B&Q in my cellar. A tool for literally every job. The only thing I'm not so good at is plumbing - but I've installed radiators and copper pipes.

    I despair at the inability of even my contemporaries in the 40/50s who asked me to fix simple household appliances, put together their cat climbing tree, help with almost anything

    I love fixing/building things and gained a huge amount of enjoyment, confidence and satisfaction from it.
    Indigo said:

    Indigo said:

    Sandpit said:

    There are nearly 3 BILLION aspirational Indians and Chinese waiting to take our place on the world stage, while we as a country seem to care only about what we can do without offending the producers...

    On a related topic I found this article in the paper yesterday extremely depressing.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/lifestyle/interiors/renovating/11507710/Lets-learn-to-abandon-our-DIY-dreams.html
    Surveys suggest that only 8 per cent of 18 to 25-year-olds can wire a plug. But then the same surveys report that only 12 per cent can use a drill..... The answer is not that they can’t do DIY, it is that they do not want to. In this they are becoming more like the French, for whom vast superstore aisles of red and white means wine, not rawlplugs.
    At the same time invention, creation, making stuff is becoming a huge movement in the USA. The maker movement is all over the country there, not just with magazines full of things to make, but lots of cutting edge technology being open sourced and democratised. It a lot of community centres in the USA its not uncommon to find lazer cutters, 3d printers, CNC mills and other high end production machinery available to rent by the hour or the job, so people can design and build their own products. Its challenging, empowering stuff, and we are going in the opposite direction... sad.
    I thought that wiring a plug is positively discouraged nowadays, with sealed plugs to avoid electrocution. Outside work (where some basic wiring is often needed), I haven't wired a plug for years.
    Yes on the narrow point you are right, but I suggest wilfully missing the point that our younger generation is rapidly losing interesting in making stuff, and that suppliers that are in business to sell products to "make stuff" are scaling back their offerings in the face of public apathy. Probably half my generation would have made repairs at home, and the vast majority of my father's generation, but its easier, and involves less effort (and less satisfaction I would say) to hire a polish handyman, and go out to a wine bar.

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300

    @Financier - Seeing R&D as an expensive luxury is part of the British disease. As are outdated working practices and technology. We have had one of the most deregulated labour markets anywhere in Europe for three decades now. It is not unions that have held us back; it is managements and our investment culture. Look at the performance of companies elsewhere in countries with far stronger labour laws than ours and similar levels of educational attainment.

    We don't produce R&D-based companies because our investors walk a mile from them - they are an upfront expense and returns do not fit the schedules they demand. Look at graphene: first produced in this country, but taken forward elsewhere by foreign businesses because none in the UK wanted to get involved.

    You might ask why is it that the university which carried out the research wasn't more entrepreneurial?

  • @PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 34 (-), Con 32 (-2), LD 9 (+1), UKIP 15 (-), Greens 5 (+1), Others 5 (-). Tables here: http://t.co/ZE8hPalaLh
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    dr_spyn said:

    Wheels coming off the Milibandwagon ZHC?

    Poor quality case, broke after one day, not good value for money.

    https://www.politicshome.com/party-politics/articles/story/labour-letter-signatory-wayne-hemingway-admits-hiring-unpaid-interns

    But Wayne's a nice Lefty, rather than an Evil Corporation or Tory, so it's OK.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    dr_spyn said:

    @Financier - Seeing R&D as an expensive luxury is part of the British disease. As are outdated working practices and technology. We have had one of the most deregulated labour markets anywhere in Europe for three decades now. It is not unions that have held us back; it is managements and our investment culture. Look at the performance of companies elsewhere in countries with far stronger labour laws than ours and similar levels of educational attainment.

    We don't produce R&D-based companies because our investors walk a mile from them - they are an upfront expense and returns do not fit the schedules they demand. Look at graphene: first produced in this country, but taken forward elsewhere by foreign businesses because none in the UK wanted to get involved.

    You might ask why is it that the university which carried out the research wasn't more entrepreneurial?

    That university would need capital to develop spin-outs and/or licensees willing to pay a royalty to work the relevant patents. The first means investors, the second means companies. Those are to be found outside the UK, but not here.

  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    @Financier - Seeing R&D as an expensive luxury is part of the British disease. As are outdated working practices and technology. We have had one of the most deregulated labour markets anywhere in Europe for three decades now. It is not unions that have held us back; it is managements and our investment culture. Look at the performance of companies elsewhere in countries with far stronger labour laws than ours and similar levels of educational attainment.

    We don't produce R&D-based companies because our investors walk a mile from them - they are an upfront expense and returns do not fit the schedules they demand. Look at graphene: first produced in this country, but taken forward elsewhere by foreign businesses because none in the UK wanted to get involved.

    The reality is we wont catch Asia because the four main reasons they are ahead of us, and will stay ahead of us are not compatible with western liberal values, at least until their market dominance becomes so ridiculous that we have no choice.

    Firstly there is very little social security, people who lose their job largely are supported by their extended family, which works very well because their is immediate pressure on those people to get a new job, it tends to come up every day at dinner time!

    Secondly, basically everyone is on a no-notice contract, if you aren't any good in most of Asia, you get sacked that day, no notice. Which means that everyone that wants to stay employed makes an effort, all the time. There is usually a queue of people outside the door wanting to take the job so employers feel no compunction about accepting second best.

    Thirdly, schooling is long hours and rigorous, parents are engaged and almost uniformly respect and support the teacher. Children are unable to play teachers and parents off against each other, if you go home and complain about being told off by the teacher, you will get an earful from your parents as well.

    Finally, most of Asia is prepared currently to accept a dramatically lower standard of living than anyone in the UK would even dream of. This will change over time for sure, but with two thirds of the worlds population in developing Asia, any regression to a mean will result in our standard of living approaching theirs more rapidly than theirs approaches ours. By the time their living standards approach what we have, they will be completely dominant in most market sectors and before that, they will always be cheaper.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    HYUFD said:

    Indigo Not entirely true, Japan has unemployment insurance and more Asian nations are introducing it as they develop, China also has recently introduced a minimum income including for those out of work.

    Yep, it's happening across Asia - even in Singapore:

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/263dd9b2-bb6e-11e4-a31f-00144feab7de.html#axzz3W8vZ8O8m

    And, of course, housing is heavily subsidised across the region.

  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    HYUFD said:

    Indigo Not entirely true, Japan has unemployment insurance and more Asian nations are introducing it as they develop, China also has recently introduced a minimum income including for those out of work.

    Indeed. Don't look too closely at the terms, or the amounts paid out!
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Indigo said:

    Sandpit said:

    There are nearly 3 BILLION aspirational Indians and Chinese waiting to take our place on the world stage, while we as a country seem to care only about what we can do without offending the producers...

    On a related topic I found this article in the paper yesterday extremely depressing.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/lifestyle/interiors/renovating/11507710/Lets-learn-to-abandon-our-DIY-dreams.html
    Surveys suggest that only 8 per cent of 18 to 25-year-olds can wire a plug. But then the same surveys report that only 12 per cent can use a drill..... The answer is not that they can’t do DIY, it is that they do not want to. In this they are becoming more like the French, for whom vast superstore aisles of red and white means wine, not rawlplugs.
    At the same time invention, creation, making stuff is becoming a huge movement in the USA. The maker movement is all over the country there, not just with magazines full of things to make, but lots of cutting edge technology being open sourced and democratised. It a lot of community centres in the USA its not uncommon to find lazer cutters, 3d printers, CNC mills and other high end production machinery available to rent by the hour or the job, so people can design and build their own products. Its challenging, empowering stuff, and we are going in the opposite direction... sad.
    I thought that wiring a plug is positively discouraged nowadays, with sealed plugs to avoid electrocution. Outside work (where some basic wiring is often needed), I haven't wired a plug for years.
    The 3 pin plug is surely the biggest design fail of all time: you end up stripping too much/not enough, not leaving enough to get round the corner, and then you upend the thing and the fuse holder bit falls out.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043

    @PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 34 (-), Con 32 (-2), LD 9 (+1), UKIP 15 (-), Greens 5 (+1), Others 5 (-). Tables here: http://t.co/ZE8hPalaLh

    Red Dawn?
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916

    @Financier - Seeing R&D as an expensive luxury is part of the British disease. As are outdated working practices and technology. We have had one of the most deregulated labour markets anywhere in Europe for three decades now. It is not unions that have held us back; it is managements and our investment culture. Look at the performance of companies elsewhere in countries with far stronger labour laws than ours and similar levels of educational attainment.

    We don't produce R&D-based companies because our investors walk a mile from them - they are an upfront expense and returns do not fit the schedules they demand. Look at graphene: first produced in this country, but taken forward elsewhere by foreign businesses because none in the UK wanted to get involved.

    Unions not held us back? - UK car industry and Red Robbo, Shipbuilding and 'who -does-what and demarcation strikes? etc. Improved technology usually means fewer workers.
    But we have always to use improved technology to compete and it requires people with high skill sets to operate it.

    Governments do not help - Green taxes nearly shut all the rest of or steel industry until the threat of closure woke up the Energy Sec.

    Graphene - One of the very first patents pertaining to the production of graphene was filed in October 2002 and granted in 2006 (US Pat. 7071258).[36] Titled, "Nano-scaled Graphene Plates," this patent detailed one of the very first large scale graphene production processes. Two years later, in 2004 Andre Geim and Kostya Novoselov at The University of Manchester extracted single-atom-thick crystallites from bulk graphite.

    In 2014 a £60m National Graphene Institute a £60m Graphene Engineering Innovation Centre (GEIC) - (Manchester) were announced to support applied research and development in partnership with other research organisations and industry.

    In North East England two commercial manufacturers, Applied Graphene Materials and Thomas Swan Limited, (with Trinity College, Dublin researchers) have begun manufacturing. In East Anglia, another manufacturer, Cambridge Nanosystems, is operating a large scale graphene powder production facilities.

    Source Wiki.
  • RobD said:

    @PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 34 (-), Con 32 (-2), LD 9 (+1), UKIP 15 (-), Greens 5 (+1), Others 5 (-). Tables here: http://t.co/ZE8hPalaLh

    Red Dawn?
    Outlier from a pollster that is very harsh on the Tories.

    More likely MOE of another poll which has it neck and neck
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    @Indigo - the vast majority of benefits paid in this country are to people who work (and to pensioners). Can you explain how in-work benefits encourage the people who receive them to sit on their couches all day?

    SO you are giving us page after page of why things are wonderful in the UK and how we will do fine. The only problem is they aren't and we won't. Sitting with our fingers in our ears is the long slow way to the poorhouse.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    dr_spyn said:

    Wheels coming off the Milibandwagon ZHC?

    Poor quality case, broke after one day, not good value for money.

    https://www.politicshome.com/party-politics/articles/story/labour-letter-signatory-wayne-hemingway-admits-hiring-unpaid-interns

    What a shock....time for some more pin head dancing by some on here to charges of hypocrisy.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    Smarmeron said:

    @SouthamObserver

    It has been the "Bane of Britain" for decades now. Blame the workers and pay those at the top ever more for pointing out who is at fault, rather than look at the problems with a fresh and unprejudiced eye.
    The whipping boys can of course be replaced according to taste and convenience.

    Those at the top benefit hugely from a business culture that favours low-cost, low-security employment, squeezing margins, investing as little as possible in plant, machinery and R&D, and focusing on quarterly dividend returns. Sclerotic productivity rates suits them fine. They have absolutely no incentive to change anything.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    @PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 34 (-), Con 32 (-2), LD 9 (+1), UKIP 15 (-), Greens 5 (+1), Others 5 (-). Tables here: http://t.co/ZE8hPalaLh

    How many over 65s voted last GE compared to 18-24s ?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300

    dr_spyn said:

    @Financier - Seeing R&D as an expensive luxury is part of the British disease. As are outdated working practices and technology. We have had one of the most deregulated labour markets anywhere in Europe for three decades now. It is not unions that have held us back; it is managements and our investment culture. Look at the performance of companies elsewhere in countries with far stronger labour laws than ours and similar levels of educational attainment.

    We don't produce R&D-based companies because our investors walk a mile from them - they are an upfront expense and returns do not fit the schedules they demand. Look at graphene: first produced in this country, but taken forward elsewhere by foreign businesses because none in the UK wanted to get involved.

    You might ask why is it that the university which carried out the research wasn't more entrepreneurial?

    That university would need capital to develop spin-outs and/or licensees willing to pay a royalty to work the relevant patents. The first means investors, the second means companies. Those are to be found outside the UK, but not here.

    So why does it work in the US? The academic culture here might be too complacent re risk taking, or the search for profits. Though @Financier has pointed to action.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533

    @PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 34 (-), Con 32 (-2), LD 9 (+1), UKIP 15 (-), Greens 5 (+1), Others 5 (-). Tables here: http://t.co/ZE8hPalaLh

    Hell Yeahhhhh

    I bet the next few days we are going to have polls all over the shop.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/24d071039d28405bb765873dc8b309c0

    Business confidence in construction industry reaches highest level since 2006.
  • Pulpstar said:

    @PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 34 (-), Con 32 (-2), LD 9 (+1), UKIP 15 (-), Greens 5 (+1), Others 5 (-). Tables here: http://t.co/ZE8hPalaLh

    How many over 65s voted last GE compared to 18-24s ?
    Lots.

    Gender split looks 'interesting'
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,963
    edited April 2015
    Southam Indeed, of course in the UK most people had to rely on charity or the workhouse until the early 20th century, it was only as the economy developed and most people got the vote that a welfare system was introduced as is now happening in much of Asia

    Indigo The UK ranks only 46th in terms of unemployment benefit replacement rate in relation to previous income, behind Egypt, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Japan Turkey and South Korea and most western nations. Certainly the reduction in contributory JSA we have does not help, it is paid out for 6 months only and at the same rate as income based JSA
    http://euwelfarestates.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/world-ranking-in-unemployment-benefit.html
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Youmissed out standing on one in bare feet...
    Ishmael_X said:

    Indigo said:

    Sandpit said:

    There are nearly 3 BILLION aspirational Indians and Chinese waiting to take our place on the world stage, while we as a country seem to care only about what we can do without offending the producers...

    On a related topic I found this article in the paper yesterday extremely depressing.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/lifestyle/interiors/renovating/11507710/Lets-learn-to-abandon-our-DIY-dreams.html
    Surveys suggest that only 8 per cent of 18 to 25-year-olds can wire a plug. But then the same surveys report that only 12 per cent can use a drill..... The answer is not that they can’t do DIY, it is that they do not want to. In this they are becoming more like the French, for whom vast superstore aisles of red and white means wine, not rawlplugs.
    At the same time invention, creation, making stuff is becoming a huge movement in the USA. The maker movement is all over the country there, not just with magazines full of things to make, but lots of cutting edge technology being open sourced and democratised. It a lot of community centres in the USA its not uncommon to find lazer cutters, 3d printers, CNC mills and other high end production machinery available to rent by the hour or the job, so people can design and build their own products. Its challenging, empowering stuff, and we are going in the opposite direction... sad.
    I thought that wiring a plug is positively discouraged nowadays, with sealed plugs to avoid electrocution. Outside work (where some basic wiring is often needed), I haven't wired a plug for years.
    The 3 pin plug is surely the biggest design fail of all time: you end up stripping too much/not enough, not leaving enough to get round the corner, and then you upend the thing and the fuse holder bit falls out.


  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    Indigo said:

    @Indigo - the vast majority of benefits paid in this country are to people who work (and to pensioners). Can you explain how in-work benefits encourage the people who receive them to sit on their couches all day?

    SO you are giving us page after page of why things are wonderful in the UK and how we will do fine. The only problem is they aren't and we won't. Sitting with our fingers in our ears is the long slow way to the poorhouse.

    Things are bad in the UK, but not because we have millions of people sitting around on couches refusing to work. As the government tells us, more people are in employment than ever before in our history - yet productivity is dire and we spend billions of taxpayers' money subsidising companies that do not pay their employees enough to live on.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Ishmael_X said:

    Indigo said:

    Sandpit said:

    There are nearly 3 BILLION aspirational Indians and Chinese waiting to take our place on the world stage, while we as a country seem to care only about what we can do without offending the producers...

    On a related topic I found this article in the paper yesterday extremely depressing.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/lifestyle/interiors/renovating/11507710/Lets-learn-to-abandon-our-DIY-dreams.html
    Surveys suggest that only 8 per cent of 18 to 25-year-olds can wire a plug. But then the same surveys report that only 12 per cent can use a drill..... The answer is not that they can’t do DIY, it is that they do not want to. In this they are becoming more like the French, for whom vast superstore aisles of red and white means wine, not rawlplugs.
    At the same time invention, creation, making stuff is becoming a huge movement in the USA. The maker movement is all over the country there, not just with magazines full of things to make, but lots of cutting edge technology being open sourced and democratised. It a lot of community centres in the USA its not uncommon to find lazer cutters, 3d printers, CNC mills and other high end production machinery available to rent by the hour or the job, so people can design and build their own products. Its challenging, empowering stuff, and we are going in the opposite direction... sad.
    I thought that wiring a plug is positively discouraged nowadays, with sealed plugs to avoid electrocution. Outside work (where some basic wiring is often needed), I haven't wired a plug for years.
    The 3 pin plug is surely the biggest design fail of all time: you end up stripping too much/not enough, not leaving enough to get round the corner, and then you upend the thing and the fuse holder bit falls out.


    The British plug is the best in the world, as Tom Robinson nearly sang, and Tom Scott explains on Youtube.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UEfP1OKKz_Q
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    dr_spyn said:

    dr_spyn said:

    @Financier - Seeing R&D as an expensive luxury is part of the British disease. As are outdated working practices and technology. We have had one of the most deregulated labour markets anywhere in Europe for three decades now. It is not unions that have held us back; it is managements and our investment culture. Look at the performance of companies elsewhere in countries with far stronger labour laws than ours and similar levels of educational attainment.

    We don't produce R&D-based companies because our investors walk a mile from them - they are an upfront expense and returns do not fit the schedules they demand. Look at graphene: first produced in this country, but taken forward elsewhere by foreign businesses because none in the UK wanted to get involved.

    You might ask why is it that the university which carried out the research wasn't more entrepreneurial?

    That university would need capital to develop spin-outs and/or licensees willing to pay a royalty to work the relevant patents. The first means investors, the second means companies. Those are to be found outside the UK, but not here.

    So why does it work in the US? The academic culture here might be too complacent re risk taking, or the search for profits. Though @Financier has pointed to action.
    US universities are private businesses. UK universities are paid for by the government, if they do no research at all, sell no patents at all, they will stay in business, and the management are paid the same irrespective of any profits made, so they have no incentive to make a deal.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043
    Plato said:

    Youmissed out standing on one in bare feet...

    Ishmael_X said:

    Indigo said:

    Sandpit said:

    There are nearly 3 BILLION aspirational Indians and Chinese waiting to take our place on the world stage, while we as a country seem to care only about what we can do without offending the producers...

    On a related topic I found this article in the paper yesterday extremely depressing.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/lifestyle/interiors/renovating/11507710/Lets-learn-to-abandon-our-DIY-dreams.html
    Surveys suggest that only 8 per cent of 18 to 25-year-olds can wire a plug. But then the same surveys report that only 12 per cent can use a drill..... The answer is not that they can’t do DIY, it is that they do not want to. In this they are becoming more like the French, for whom vast superstore aisles of red and white means wine, not rawlplugs.
    At the same time invention, creation, making stuff is becoming a huge movement in the USA. The maker movement is all over the country there, not just with magazines full of things to make, but lots of cutting edge technology being open sourced and democratised. It a lot of community centres in the USA its not uncommon to find lazer cutters, 3d printers, CNC mills and other high end production machinery available to rent by the hour or the job, so people can design and build their own products. Its challenging, empowering stuff, and we are going in the opposite direction... sad.
    I thought that wiring a plug is positively discouraged nowadays, with sealed plugs to avoid electrocution. Outside work (where some basic wiring is often needed), I haven't wired a plug for years.
    The 3 pin plug is surely the biggest design fail of all time: you end up stripping too much/not enough, not leaving enough to get round the corner, and then you upend the thing and the fuse holder bit falls out.


    I'll have none of this. The British plug is the best plug in the worrrrldd.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited April 2015
    dr_spyn said:

    dr_spyn said:

    @Financier - Seeing R&D as an expensive luxury is part of the British disease. As are outdated working practices and technology. We have had one of the most deregulated labour markets anywhere in Europe for three decades now. It is not unions that have held us back; it is managements and our investment culture. Look at the performance of companies elsewhere in countries with far stronger labour laws than ours and similar levels of educational attainment.

    We don't produce R&D-based companies because our investors walk a mile from them - they are an upfront expense and returns do not fit the schedules they demand. Look at graphene: first produced in this country, but taken forward elsewhere by foreign businesses because none in the UK wanted to get involved.

    You might ask why is it that the university which carried out the research wasn't more entrepreneurial?

    That university would need capital to develop spin-outs and/or licensees willing to pay a royalty to work the relevant patents. The first means investors, the second means companies. Those are to be found outside the UK, but not here.

    So why does it work in the US? The academic culture here might be too complacent re risk taking, or the search for profits. Though @Financier has pointed to action.
    Profit is a dirty word in large parts of UK academia. Also, generally UK academia are terrible at getting out there hustling, self promoting, etc, partly because pretty much any academic role is a job for life. As a result, it is a very insular world.

    The reverse is the case in US academia, they are if anything overly profit driven, too concentrated on pumping out paper by volume, rather than quality. No publications by you and your PhDs, you wont last long. And getting tenured Prof is extremely difficult.

    There are notable exceptions to the above generalizations.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    dr_spyn said:

    dr_spyn said:

    @Financier - Seeing R&D as an expensive luxury is part of the British disease. As are outdated working practices and technology. We have had one of the most deregulated labour markets anywhere in Europe for three decades now. It is not unions that have held us back; it is managements and our investment culture. Look at the performance of companies elsewhere in countries with far stronger labour laws than ours and similar levels of educational attainment.

    We don't produce R&D-based companies because our investors walk a mile from them - they are an upfront expense and returns do not fit the schedules they demand. Look at graphene: first produced in this country, but taken forward elsewhere by foreign businesses because none in the UK wanted to get involved.

    You might ask why is it that the university which carried out the research wasn't more entrepreneurial?

    That university would need capital to develop spin-outs and/or licensees willing to pay a royalty to work the relevant patents. The first means investors, the second means companies. Those are to be found outside the UK, but not here.

    So why does it work in the US? The academic culture here might be too complacent re risk taking, or the search for profits. Though @Financier has pointed to action.

    It's far easier to access capital in the US and much easier to find licensees (though recent and possible further changes to patent law will change that - much to the US's disadvantage).

  • Virtually every poster and their dog are polling on tonight's debate.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/OmOnline_Vote_02-04-2015_BPC.pdf

    Does Populus table 5 account for differential age related turnout or just tries to get it's sample in line with the population pyramid ?
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Indigo said:

    @Indigo - the vast majority of benefits paid in this country are to people who work (and to pensioners). Can you explain how in-work benefits encourage the people who receive them to sit on their couches all day?

    SO you are giving us page after page of why things are wonderful in the UK and how we will do fine. The only problem is they aren't and we won't. Sitting with our fingers in our ears is the long slow way to the poorhouse.

    Things are bad in the UK, but not because we have millions of people sitting around on couches refusing to work. As the government tells us, more people are in employment than ever before in our history - yet productivity is dire and we spend billions of taxpayers' money subsidising companies that do not pay their employees enough to live on.
    Its not that millions are sitting around, its that millions feel safe to make no effort because there is a big fat safety net under them, that is a good thing socially, but a bad thing motivationally. Its that millions once employed feel not need to make an effort because they have next to no chance of being sacked for being no good, again arguably good socially, terribly in terms of productivity. Its that we have families where all the parents and grandparents have spent their life on benefits and the children have no role model that suggests that hard work is desirable. Finally we have (and have had for a long time) a disastrous anti-elitist culture that suggests that being too successful or doing to well is both uncool and in some ways un-British.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,313
    HYUFD said:

    Southam Indeed, of course in the UK most people had to rely on charity or the workhouse until the early 20th century, it was only as the economy developed and most people got the vote that a welfare system was introduced as is now happening in much of Asia

    Indigo The UK ranks only 46th in terms of unemployment benefit replacement rate in relation to previous income, behind Egypt, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Japan Turkey and South Korea and most western nations. Certainly the reduction in contributory JSA we have does not help, it is paid out for 6 months only and at the same rate as income based JSA
    http://euwelfarestates.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/world-ranking-in-unemployment-benefit.html

    But people then claim their housing costs separately, which has to be taken into consideration.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    edited April 2015

    Virtually every poster and their dog are polling on tonight's debate.

    So long as the wardrobe departments of the candidates have gone for some originality in the ties...
  • Edin_RokzEdin_Rokz Posts: 516

    @Financier - Seeing R&D as an expensive luxury is part of the British disease. As are outdated working practices and technology. We have had one of the most deregulated labour markets anywhere in Europe for three decades now. It is not unions that have held us back; it is managements and our investment culture. Look at the performance of companies elsewhere in countries with far stronger labour laws than ours and similar levels of educational attainment.

    We don't produce R&D-based companies because our investors walk a mile from them - they are an upfront expense and returns do not fit the schedules they demand. Look at graphene: first produced in this country, but taken forward elsewhere by foreign businesses because none in the UK wanted to get involved.

    Agreed, too many companies (and I've worked in plenty of them) promote on the Peter Principle, the brownest nose in a team, who ever is not going to endanger the promoter and more and variations of the above.

    No, I'm not bitter, used and abused the "system" through out my working life. The one job that gave me the most fun was one in which advancement was a given based on the quality of work produced, but as the MD made clear, if you were in the same position after 5 years, you better have a damned good reason (family, responsibility etc.) or you would be out of the company. Stayed 5 years, promoted twice, company bought out and I left (Company sold on, merged, failed) .

    Far too easy to blame Unions, Europe or whatever rather to look at problems too close to home.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,027

    @PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 34 (-), Con 32 (-2), LD 9 (+1), UKIP 15 (-), Greens 5 (+1), Others 5 (-). Tables here: http://t.co/ZE8hPalaLh

    And so just as we seemed to be reaching a conclusion that the polls were swinging one way over the past few days, along comes one swinging the other way!
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    Indigo said:



    Yes on the narrow point you are right, but I suggest wilfully missing the point that our younger generation is rapidly losing interesting in making stuff, and that suppliers that are in business to sell products to "make stuff" are scaling back their offerings in the face of public apathy. Probably half my generation would have made repairs at home, and the vast majority of my father's generation, but its easier, and involves less effort (and less satisfaction I would say) to hire a polish handyman, and go out to a wine bar.

    There's a flip side to this.

    A complaint from a friend of mine who lives in Eastern Europe is that how dodgy the electricity and plumbing is, after a couple of decades of previous occupiers Doing It Themselves and not necessarily very well. The level of practical skills in the wider population might be high (it's a cultural-historical thing, I'm told: getting in a domestic electrician under Communism could mean an eternal wait), but that doesn't mean it's of professional standard, and some jobs are just worth doing well.

    From an economic point of view, we've known about the Division of Labour since at least the 18th century, so I don't think there should be any shame in taking advantage of it. I specialise professionally in those things for which I can charge the most for my time - and I can trade the time I spend doing what I'm good at, to bring in someone who can do the things I wouldn't be so good at but which I want to get done regardless.

    Some things I'll do for myself because I extract a hobbyist's enjoyment from them. But the utility I derive from doing my own gardening, for instance, is the fresh air and exercise and opportunity to commune a little with the wonders of Nature, Perhaps a childlike delectation in the glories of getting myself muddy. It's certainly not that I'm kidding myself I'm doing an excellent job of it, or that I'm saving a small fortune in labourer's wages.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,932

    dr_spyn said:

    dr_spyn said:

    @Financier - Seeing R&D as an expensive luxury is part of the British disease. As are outdated working practices and technology. We have had one of the most deregulated labour markets anywhere in Europe for three decades now. It is not unions that have held us back; it is managements and our investment culture. Look at the performance of companies elsewhere in countries with far stronger labour laws than ours and similar levels of educational attainment.

    We don't produce R&D-based companies because our investors walk a mile from them - they are an upfront expense and returns do not fit the schedules they demand. Look at graphene: first produced in this country, but taken forward elsewhere by foreign businesses because none in the UK wanted to get involved.

    You might ask why is it that the university which carried out the research wasn't more entrepreneurial?

    That university would need capital to develop spin-outs and/or licensees willing to pay a royalty to work the relevant patents. The first means investors, the second means companies. Those are to be found outside the UK, but not here.

    So why does it work in the US? The academic culture here might be too complacent re risk taking, or the search for profits. Though @Financier has pointed to action.

    It's far easier to access capital in the US and much easier to find licensees (though recent and possible further changes to patent law will change that - much to the US's disadvantage).

    ARM?
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited April 2015

    @PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 34 (-), Con 32 (-2), LD 9 (+1), UKIP 15 (-), Greens 5 (+1), Others 5 (-). Tables here: http://t.co/ZE8hPalaLh

    Labour Score First

    Last three Populus (end of week)

    33-31, 34-31, 32-29

    Last three Populus (start of week)

    34-34, 33-31, 34-34

    Populus, like Comres Online and Survation, find many more conservative to UKIP switchers than the phone pollsters (incl. Comres). It reduces Tory 2010 vote retention by about 6%


  • Sandpit said:

    @PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 34 (-), Con 32 (-2), LD 9 (+1), UKIP 15 (-), Greens 5 (+1), Others 5 (-). Tables here: http://t.co/ZE8hPalaLh

    And so just as we seemed to be reaching a conclusion that the polls were swinging one way over the past few days, along comes one swinging the other way!
    Populus online are an untried pollster at the General Election.

    All bar one of the pollsters who polled at the last election have the Tories ahead.

    #TrustTheTriedAndTested
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,963
    John Lilburne True, but that still does not change the point we need higher benefits for those who have paid more in
  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Surely the one with most to lose tonight is Nick. .......He has to surely focus on the success of the Coalition and how the Lib Dems will act as a moderator in a government of either colour. If he starts moaning about the Coalition the last few that care will be wondering what the point of the Lib Dems is.

    The time to focus on the success of the Coalition was throughout the past five years. As the Responsible Left, in stark contrast to the two Eds.

    The in-but-out-but-in-but.... stance on the Coalition has been a fundamentally stupid piece of positioning, tied to the old way of thinking that the LibDems could ride two horses in different directions.

    A sensible Clegg should be shouting from the rooftops about the LD successes of the Coalition - lifting the personal allowance, free school meals etc. Instead he seems determined to use the narrative the he stopped the Tories eating babies while apologising for tuition fees and the reduction in the 50% rate. The LDs spent years decades arguing the positives of coalition, now seem determined to only use the negatives of actually being in one!
    Free school meals a success?! Fundamentally wrong in principle and deeply irritating to interfere nannyingly like this, and in practice a nightmare for small schools, not to mention a waste of money.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,485

    dr_spyn said:

    dr_spyn said:

    @Financier - Seeing R&D as an expensive luxury is part of the British disease. As are outdated working practices and technology. We have had one of the most deregulated labour markets anywhere in Europe for three decades now. It is not unions that have held us back; it is managements and our investment culture. Look at the performance of companies elsewhere in countries with far stronger labour laws than ours and similar levels of educational attainment.

    We don't produce R&D-based companies because our investors walk a mile from them - they are an upfront expense and returns do not fit the schedules they demand. Look at graphene: first produced in this country, but taken forward elsewhere by foreign businesses because none in the UK wanted to get involved.

    You might ask why is it that the university which carried out the research wasn't more entrepreneurial?

    That university would need capital to develop spin-outs and/or licensees willing to pay a royalty to work the relevant patents. The first means investors, the second means companies. Those are to be found outside the UK, but not here.

    So why does it work in the US? The academic culture here might be too complacent re risk taking, or the search for profits. Though @Financier has pointed to action.

    It's far easier to access capital in the US and much easier to find licensees (though recent and possible further changes to patent law will change that - much to the US's disadvantage).

    ARM?
    ARM is an interesting one for lots of reasons. It was, and is, far from a standard investment and IP story. The UK owes Robin Saxby a great deal for his vision.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    HYUFD said:

    Southam Indeed, of course in the UK most people had to rely on charity or the workhouse until the early 20th century, it was only as the economy developed and most people got the vote that a welfare system was introduced as is now happening in much of Asia

    Indigo The UK ranks only 46th in terms of unemployment benefit replacement rate in relation to previous income, behind Egypt, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Japan Turkey and South Korea and most western nations. Certainly the reduction in contributory JSA we have does not help, it is paid out for 6 months only and at the same rate as income based JSA
    http://euwelfarestates.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/world-ranking-in-unemployment-benefit.html

    But people then claim their housing costs separately, which has to be taken into consideration.


    And their free education and healthcare, which is massive.

    At the moment a quarter of my monthly outgoings here is paying the school fees for my children, and they are in local schools, not international schools. It will be a higher percentage for most locals here.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,706
    Financier said:

    Jonathan said:

    Financier said:

    Jonathan said:

    Financier said:

    Last night watched a repeat of a programme giving the history of the Welsh Valleys, often illustrated by pictures of the changing times. It gave a very good illustration of the impact of technology and globalisation on the health or misery of that local economy.
    ...
    Some PBers are developing business globally whilst others want to revert to past times and privileges that are no longer there and so mirror the political party leaders. Will we see any real thought innovation for GB at the debate tonight - I sincerely doubt it.

    Odd post. You celebrate the industrial revolution, yet claim others are dinosaurs harking after the past. I doubt you would accept that life for you and your family.
    Nobody needs to accept anything for themselves or their family. You just have to get people off their backsides and do something about it personally.

    Look at education, the Victorians and their successors loved it, the Chinese and other Asians love it, the Africans love it - so why are we employing truancy officers and showing a declining performance compared to our global competitors?

    Why do about half the adults in Wales have only a literacy and numeracy standard of an 11 year old? The answer is a combination of political ideology (all must win prizes) and a nigh total lack of aspiration for excellence by most politicians at all levels, who accept that average is good enough. Well accepting average of a declining standard can only lead to unemployment and bankruptcy.
    Are supporting higher spending on education?
    No, I support more efficient education, with better educated and subject qualified and aspirational teachers, longer school hours and get rid of the nonsense about children from poor backgrounds are disadvantaged. My grammar school was full of children whose parents could hardly afford their uniform (the school did provide grants for the needy) but all the parents were very keen for their children to achieve the best of their capability and to utilise their talents These parents also got involved with the PTA and supported their children - a bit different from what happens in some schools today.
    Change programmes cost money, you don't get something for nothing.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The polling is still showing a confused picture. It's important to look at each pollster's results separately rather than jumble them all together chronologically.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,963
    edited April 2015
    Indigo By 2050 according to the OECD China will have indeed overtaken the UK on a gdp per capita basis and be just behind the US. On a gdp per capita basis the UK will still be ahead of most of the rest of Asia though, including Indian (see pages 29-31)
    http://www.oecd.org/officialdocuments/publicdisplaydocumentpdf/?cote=ENV/EPOC/WPCID(2012)6&docLanguage=En
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    Indigo said:

    dr_spyn said:

    dr_spyn said:

    @Financier - Seeing R&D as an expensive luxury is part of the British disease. As are outdated working practices and technology. We have had one of the most deregulated labour markets anywhere in Europe for three decades now. It is not unions that have held us back; it is managements and our investment culture. Look at the performance of companies elsewhere in countries with far stronger labour laws than ours and similar levels of educational attainment.

    We don't produce R&D-based companies because our investors walk a mile from them - they are an upfront expense and returns do not fit the schedules they demand. Look at graphene: first produced in this country, but taken forward elsewhere by foreign businesses because none in the UK wanted to get involved.

    You might ask why is it that the university which carried out the research wasn't more entrepreneurial?

    That university would need capital to develop spin-outs and/or licensees willing to pay a royalty to work the relevant patents. The first means investors, the second means companies. Those are to be found outside the UK, but not here.

    So why does it work in the US? The academic culture here might be too complacent re risk taking, or the search for profits. Though @Financier has pointed to action.
    US universities are private businesses. UK universities are paid for by the government, if they do no research at all, sell no patents at all, they will stay in business, and the management are paid the same irrespective of any profits made, so they have no incentive to make a deal.

    Not true: most research done at most US universities is federally or state funded.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/27/universities-government-money_n_3165186.html
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672

    dr_spyn said:

    dr_spyn said:

    @Financier - Seeing R&D as an expensive luxury is part of the British disease. As are outdated working practices and technology. We have had one of the most deregulated labour markets anywhere in Europe for three decades now. It is not unions that have held us back; it is managements and our investment culture. Look at the performance of companies elsewhere in countries with far stronger labour laws than ours and similar levels of educational attainment.

    We don't produce R&D-based companies because our investors walk a mile from them - they are an upfront expense and returns do not fit the schedules they demand. Look at graphene: first produced in this country, but taken forward elsewhere by foreign businesses because none in the UK wanted to get involved.

    You might ask why is it that the university which carried out the research wasn't more entrepreneurial?

    That university would need capital to develop spin-outs and/or licensees willing to pay a royalty to work the relevant patents. The first means investors, the second means companies. Those are to be found outside the UK, but not here.

    So why does it work in the US? The academic culture here might be too complacent re risk taking, or the search for profits. Though @Financier has pointed to action.

    It's far easier to access capital in the US and much easier to find licensees (though recent and possible further changes to patent law will change that - much to the US's disadvantage).

    ARM?

    Yes, ARM is an outstanding exception. But given the quality of our universities there should be many more ARMs.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    edited April 2015
    Do Labour and the Greens have age profile problems ?

    Higher is better in each table imo.

    From latest Populus:

    65+

    SNP 38.5% 65+ (Statistically borderline)
    Conservative 34.1% 65+
    Lib Dem 33.3% 65+
    UKIP 30.0% 65+

    Labour 16.9% 65+
    Green 10% 65+

    18-24

    UKIP 3.1%
    Conservative 7.3%
    Lib Dems 8.8%
    SNP 8.8% (Statistically borderline)
    Labour 10.6%

    Green 32.3%

    I'm assuming the numbers have been weighted to UK population pyramid excluding under 18s.


    Plaid's figures are too statistically insignificant.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,027
    edited April 2015

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Surely the one with most to lose tonight is Nick. .......He has to surely focus on the success of the Coalition and how the Lib Dems will act as a moderator in a government of either colour. If he starts moaning about the Coalition the last few that care will be wondering what the point of the Lib Dems is.

    The time to focus on the success of the Coalition was throughout the past five years. As the Responsible Left, in stark contrast to the two Eds.

    The in-but-out-but-in-but.... stance on the Coalition has been a fundamentally stupid piece of positioning, tied to the old way of thinking that the LibDems could ride two horses in different directions.

    A sensible Clegg should be shouting from the rooftops about the LD successes of the Coalition - lifting the personal allowance, free school meals etc. Instead he seems determined to use the narrative the he stopped the Tories eating babies while apologising for tuition fees and the reduction in the 50% rate. The LDs spent years decades arguing the positives of coalition, now seem determined to only use the negatives of actually being in one!
    Free school meals a success?! Fundamentally wrong in principle and deeply irritating to interfere nannyingly like this, and in practice a nightmare for small schools, not to mention a waste of money.
    Certainly a success in terms of it being a clear LD policy coming through the coalition, rather than the success of the policy itself.

    My point being that Clegg & co need to be more positive about their achievements. Thinking back to 2010 and where we might have ended up from the inconclusive election, the fact that we are where we are now is a massive credit to both parties involved - yet only one of them wants to shout from the rooftops about their record in Government.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Sweating could be a major issue for the contestants in tonight's fight.Farage looked particularly out of shape in his first clash with Clegg but the risks of excessive perspiration are more real for Cameron,especially if it gets mixed up with the make-up powder and ends up dripping like sludge.Clegg's face is also worth a watch for puffiness-he looked to be going the same way as Elvis earlier on in the parliament.Miliband has far less of a puffy,sweaty look.
    I suspect too 2 contests,one for Head Girl and one for Head Boy but the sisterhood,working as a team,could end up the overall winner which is why I am backing Sturgeon at 9-1.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    edited April 2015
    YouGov poll on who people expect to win tonight makes modestly interesting reading. Reinforces the favourites, though perhaps suggests Cameron is slightly too long and Farage too short (as others have argued). Personally I think it slightly weakens the case for partisan loyalty translating to debate support, given Sturgeon scores pretty well and Farage too. There is certainly an element of it, but I believe it has been somewhat overstated.

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/04/02/more-expect-miliband-do-well-tv-debate/
  • Lebo and Norpoth have done a piece

    PM-Pendulum Model: Conservatives Edge Labour in Votes and Seats

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/generalelection/pm-pendulum-model-conservatives-edge-labour-in-votes-and-seats/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    Sweating could be a major issue for the contestants in tonight's fight.Farage looked particularly out of shape in his first clash with Clegg but the risks of excessive perspiration are more real for Cameron,especially if it gets mixed up with the make-up powder and ends up dripping like sludge.Clegg's face is also worth a watch for puffiness-he looked to be going the same way as Elvis earlier on in the parliament.Miliband has far less of a puffy,sweaty look.
    I suspect too 2 contests,one for Head Girl and one for Head Boy but the sisterhood,working as a team,could end up the overall winner which is why I am backing Sturgeon at 9-1.

    Yes, a week off the booze and fags will have been advisable for the debate as well as a few morning runs or cycles and plenty of hydration.

    Two hours is a long long time under lights.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,027

    Sandpit said:

    @PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 34 (-), Con 32 (-2), LD 9 (+1), UKIP 15 (-), Greens 5 (+1), Others 5 (-). Tables here: http://t.co/ZE8hPalaLh

    And so just as we seemed to be reaching a conclusion that the polls were swinging one way over the past few days, along comes one swinging the other way!
    Populus online are an untried pollster at the General Election.

    All bar one of the pollsters who polled at the last election have the Tories ahead.

    #TrustTheTriedAndTested
    So TSE, you think that Populous Online will be the Angus Reid of 2015?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Only 41 of those Labour Controls...mugs left.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    Many thanks for a fascinating exchange of views on here today. Very enjoyable and constructive.

    I should hasten to add that this is not a party political point. I think a lack of real world experience at the top of all the major parties makes them far too amenable to listening to vested interests of all kinds. And those who run big businesses and investment banks are just as much of a vested interest as the teaching profession, trades unions, professional bodies etc.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Sandpit said:

    @PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 34 (-), Con 32 (-2), LD 9 (+1), UKIP 15 (-), Greens 5 (+1), Others 5 (-). Tables here: http://t.co/ZE8hPalaLh

    And so just as we seemed to be reaching a conclusion that the polls were swinging one way over the past few days, along comes one swinging the other way!
    Populus online are an untried pollster at the General Election.

    All bar one of the pollsters who polled at the last election have the Tories ahead.

    #TrustTheTriedAndTested
    Does it matter if the pollsters were accurate at the last GE or just that they did polls?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    Lebo and Norpoth have done a piece

    PM-Pendulum Model: Conservatives Edge Labour in Votes and Seats

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/generalelection/pm-pendulum-model-conservatives-edge-labour-in-votes-and-seats/

    Rod Crosby has used Lebo-Norpoth to demonstrate a Conservative lead on seats is pretty much a 100% chance for yonks...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    edited April 2015
    Mind you their Scotland prediction looks quite broad brush to me - the idea that the SNP will gain only 35 seats if they take Orkney and Shetland is preposterous to my mind.
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    @PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 34 (-), Con 32 (-2), LD 9 (+1), UKIP 15 (-), Greens 5 (+1), Others 5 (-). Tables here: http://t.co/ZE8hPalaLh

    And so just as we seemed to be reaching a conclusion that the polls were swinging one way over the past few days, along comes one swinging the other way!
    Populus online are an untried pollster at the General Election.

    All bar one of the pollsters who polled at the last election have the Tories ahead.

    #TrustTheTriedAndTested
    So TSE, you think that Populous Online will be the Angus Reid of 2015?
    I wouldn't go that far.

    I've said the pollster with the most accurate UKIP figure will be the top pollster at this election.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Not saying they will take O&S but the sweep is on if they do.
  • isam said:

    Sandpit said:

    @PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 34 (-), Con 32 (-2), LD 9 (+1), UKIP 15 (-), Greens 5 (+1), Others 5 (-). Tables here: http://t.co/ZE8hPalaLh

    And so just as we seemed to be reaching a conclusion that the polls were swinging one way over the past few days, along comes one swinging the other way!
    Populus online are an untried pollster at the General Election.

    All bar one of the pollsters who polled at the last election have the Tories ahead.

    #TrustTheTriedAndTested
    Does it matter if the pollsters were accurate at the last GE or just that they did polls?
    Both. Helps to have a benchmark.

    Once you apply the house effects on each pollster, they are largely showing the same thing
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,378
    Pulpstar said:

    Do Labour and the Greens have age profile problems ?

    Higher is better in each table imo.

    From latest Populus:

    65+

    SNP 38.5% 65+ (Statistically borderline)
    Conservative 34.1% 65+
    Lib Dem 33.3% 65+
    UKIP 30.0% 65+

    Labour 16.9% 65+
    Green 10% 65+

    18-24

    UKIP 3.1%
    Conservative 7.3%
    Lib Dems 8.8%
    SNP 8.8% (Statistically borderline)
    Labour 10.6%

    Green 32.3%

    I'm assuming the numbers have been weighted to UK population pyramid excluding under 18s.


    Plaid's figures are too statistically insignificant.

    Interesting then that SLAB seem to be targeting the middle-aged and elderly West Central Belt Rangers/Celtic supporting male who likes his swally (and, some might add, sniffing glue when he was younger) - which IIRC is borne out by the data showing SLAB vote peaking in this demographic. Does this mean therefore that Scottish Labour voters are different from southron ones?

  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited April 2015

    Sweating could be a major issue for the contestants in tonight's fight.Farage looked particularly out of shape in his first clash with Clegg but the risks of excessive perspiration are more real for Cameron,especially if it gets mixed up with the make-up powder and ends up dripping like sludge.Clegg's face is also worth a watch for puffiness-he looked to be going the same way as Elvis earlier on in the parliament.Miliband has far less of a puffy,sweaty look.
    I suspect too 2 contests,one for Head Girl and one for Head Boy but the sisterhood,working as a team,could end up the overall winner which is why I am backing Sturgeon at 9-1.

    A Sturgaculation is certainly possible. The problem is that she's not trying to appeal to a UK audience - her debate strategy is simple and very focussed. Expect lots of *scotland this* and *scotland that* - is that really going to win over the ~20-25% of the English people on the polling panel that she'd need, to come out as the winner?

    I dunno.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,485

    dr_spyn said:

    dr_spyn said:

    @Financier - Seeing R&D as an expensive luxury is part of the British disease. As are outdated working practices and technology. We have had one of the most deregulated labour markets anywhere in Europe for three decades now. It is not unions that have held us back; it is managements and our investment culture. Look at the performance of companies elsewhere in countries with far stronger labour laws than ours and similar levels of educational attainment.

    We don't produce R&D-based companies because our investors walk a mile from them - they are an upfront expense and returns do not fit the schedules they demand. Look at graphene: first produced in this country, but taken forward elsewhere by foreign businesses because none in the UK wanted to get involved.

    You might ask why is it that the university which carried out the research wasn't more entrepreneurial?

    That university would need capital to develop spin-outs and/or licensees willing to pay a royalty to work the relevant patents. The first means investors, the second means companies. Those are to be found outside the UK, but not here.

    So why does it work in the US? The academic culture here might be too complacent re risk taking, or the search for profits. Though @Financier has pointed to action.

    It's far easier to access capital in the US and much easier to find licensees (though recent and possible further changes to patent law will change that - much to the US's disadvantage).

    ARM?

    Yes, ARM is an outstanding exception. But given the quality of our universities there should be many more ARMs.

    Do you know why ARM has its rather unusual position in the industry?

    It is not something that is easy to replicate, particularly on purpose.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Pulpstar said:

    http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/OmOnline_Vote_02-04-2015_BPC.pdf

    Does Populus table 5 account for differential age related turnout or just tries to get it's sample in line with the population pyramid ?

    I don't know - other than that the Tory/ UKIP votes are heavily weighted down and the Labour/ Lib Dems hardly changed at all. (Table 1 and table 12)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    edited April 2015
    Carnyx said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Do Labour and the Greens have age profile problems ?

    Higher is better in each table imo.

    From latest Populus:

    65+

    SNP 38.5% 65+ (Statistically borderline)
    Conservative 34.1% 65+
    Lib Dem 33.3% 65+
    UKIP 30.0% 65+

    Labour 16.9% 65+
    Green 10% 65+

    18-24

    UKIP 3.1%
    Conservative 7.3%
    Lib Dems 8.8%
    SNP 8.8% (Statistically borderline)
    Labour 10.6%

    Green 32.3%

    I'm assuming the numbers have been weighted to UK population pyramid excluding under 18s.


    Plaid's figures are too statistically insignificant.

    Interesting then that SLAB seem to be targeting the middle-aged and elderly West Central Belt Rangers/Celtic supporting male who likes his swally (and, some might add, sniffing glue when he was younger) - which IIRC is borne out by the data showing SLAB vote peaking in this demographic. Does this mean therefore that Scottish Labour voters are different from southron ones?

    Possibly, but the SNP age profile doesn't look awful to me whereas the Conservative age profile in seems a whole heap better than the Labour one (Obviously both are mainly English samples)
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656

    Indigo said:

    @Indigo - the vast majority of benefits paid in this country are to people who work (and to pensioners). Can you explain how in-work benefits encourage the people who receive them to sit on their couches all day?

    SO you are giving us page after page of why things are wonderful in the UK and how we will do fine. The only problem is they aren't and we won't. Sitting with our fingers in our ears is the long slow way to the poorhouse.

    Things are bad in the UK, but not because we have millions of people sitting around on couches refusing to work. As the government tells us, more people are in employment than ever before in our history - yet productivity is dire and we spend billions of taxpayers' money subsidising companies that do not pay their employees enough to live on.
    That is also true in the US. I have read papers pointing out the vast amount of public subsidies that Walmart get, and oil & gas subsidies for companies like Haliburton. Crony capitalism is alive and well in the US. I think there is just a broader question of national culture. We often mock Americans for not knowing about geography, but they seem to have a far better understanding of business and financial matters than the average Brit.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Carnyx said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Do Labour and the Greens have age profile problems ?

    Higher is better in each table imo.

    From latest Populus:

    65+

    SNP 38.5% 65+ (Statistically borderline)
    Conservative 34.1% 65+
    Lib Dem 33.3% 65+
    UKIP 30.0% 65+

    Labour 16.9% 65+
    Green 10% 65+

    18-24

    UKIP 3.1%
    Conservative 7.3%
    Lib Dems 8.8%
    SNP 8.8% (Statistically borderline)
    Labour 10.6%

    Green 32.3%

    I'm assuming the numbers have been weighted to UK population pyramid excluding under 18s.


    Plaid's figures are too statistically insignificant.

    Does this mean therefore that Scottish Labour voters are different from southron ones?
    We know half of Labour members are from London, and I'd guess they are not typical of what you describe......

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    Pulpstar said:

    Mind you their Scotland prediction looks quite broad brush to me - the idea that the SNP will gain only 35 seats if they take Orkney and Shetland is preposterous to my mind.

    Absolutely. Realistically, you could probably add a minimum of ten to that number - all from Labour - and possibly up to 20. The way things are going now, Labour will do well to exceed its current overall seat total.

  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @volcanopete

    'Miliband has far less of a puffy,sweaty look.'

    Just a weird look instead..
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,027

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    @PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 34 (-), Con 32 (-2), LD 9 (+1), UKIP 15 (-), Greens 5 (+1), Others 5 (-). Tables here: http://t.co/ZE8hPalaLh

    And so just as we seemed to be reaching a conclusion that the polls were swinging one way over the past few days, along comes one swinging the other way!
    Populus online are an untried pollster at the General Election.

    All bar one of the pollsters who polled at the last election have the Tories ahead.

    #TrustTheTriedAndTested
    So TSE, you think that Populous Online will be the Angus Reid of 2015?
    I wouldn't go that far.

    I've said the pollster with the most accurate UKIP figure will be the top pollster at this election.
    I think you're probably right there.

    I wonder if the UKIP vote share will become a little like the LDs as we get closer, squeezed out in the Lab/Con marginals but still doing well where they can win and in the safe seats where they have no chance but might end up second? They could end up on 8% but with half a dozen seats to show for it, if they can sufficiently narrow their campaigning on the ground.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,543
    Pulpstar said:

    Lebo and Norpoth have done a piece

    PM-Pendulum Model: Conservatives Edge Labour in Votes and Seats

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/generalelection/pm-pendulum-model-conservatives-edge-labour-in-votes-and-seats/

    Rod Crosby has used Lebo-Norpoth to demonstrate a Conservative lead on seats is pretty much a 100% chance for yonks...
    If the Conservatives were to finish ahead by 3.4% in terms of votes, I think they'd have lead Labour by more than 2 seats.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    edited April 2015
    Pong said:

    Sweating could be a major issue for the contestants in tonight's fight.Farage looked particularly out of shape in his first clash with Clegg but the risks of excessive perspiration are more real for Cameron,especially if it gets mixed up with the make-up powder and ends up dripping like sludge.Clegg's face is also worth a watch for puffiness-he looked to be going the same way as Elvis earlier on in the parliament.Miliband has far less of a puffy,sweaty look.
    I suspect too 2 contests,one for Head Girl and one for Head Boy but the sisterhood,working as a team,could end up the overall winner which is why I am backing Sturgeon at 9-1.

    A Sturgaculation is certainly possible. The problem is that she's not trying to appeal to a UK audience - her debate strategy is simple and very focussed. Expect lots of *scotland this* and *scotland that* - is that really going to win over the ~20-25% of the English people on the polling panel that she'd need, to come out as the winner?

    I dunno.
    Who will she go for ?

    Farage is pretty much an irrelevance to her, Leanne Wood is her ally and Bennett is a sort of neutral ally competitor (The Greens stand in Scotland, Plaid do NOT) .

    So her choices are obviously Clegg, Miliband and Cameron. The Scottish Lib Dem vote has already collapsed beyond repair - so my guess would be she'll go for Miliband particularly large on the fact that Labour are reasonably similiar to the Conservative spending plans (When compared to SNP).
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,568

    Many thanks for a fascinating exchange of views on here today. Very enjoyable and constructive.

    I should hasten to add that this is not a party political point. I think a lack of real world experience at the top of all the major parties makes them far too amenable to listening to vested interests of all kinds. And those who run big businesses and investment banks are just as much of a vested interest as the teaching profession, trades unions, professional bodies etc.

    As in other aspects of politics where MP representation is light (understanding the position and attitudes of the very poor, prisoners, people with Alzheimers, children, people with major physical disabilities, etc.), we can't really rely on having lots of MPs who are expert from personal experience - nice to have, but not realistic. The acceptable substitute is an ability to listen and empathise without being co-opted. I've never criticised anyone for going to a private school, for instance, but the recognition that this isn't everyone's experience and an interest in understanding differences is essential, perhaps the most important of all political skills.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,706

    dr_spyn said:

    dr_spyn said:

    @Financier - Seeing R&D as an expensive luxury is part of the British disease. As are outdated working practices and technology. We have had one of the most deregulated labour markets anywhere in Europe for three decades now. It is not unions that have held us back; it is managements and our investment culture. Look at the performance of companies elsewhere in countries with far stronger labour laws than ours and similar levels of educational attainment.

    We don't produce R&D-based companies because our investors walk a mile from them - they are an upfront expense and returns do not fit the schedules they demand. Look at graphene: first produced in this country, but taken forward elsewhere by foreign businesses because none in the UK wanted to get involved.

    You might ask why is it that the university which carried out the research wasn't more entrepreneurial?

    That university would need capital to develop spin-outs and/or licensees willing to pay a royalty to work the relevant patents. The first means investors, the second means companies. Those are to be found outside the UK, but not here.

    So why does it work in the US? The academic culture here might be too complacent re risk taking, or the search for profits. Though @Financier has pointed to action.

    It's far easier to access capital in the US and much easier to find licensees (though recent and possible further changes to patent law will change that - much to the US's disadvantage).

    ARM?

    Yes, ARM is an outstanding exception. But given the quality of our universities there should be many more ARMs.

    Do you know why ARM has its rather unusual position in the industry?

    It is not something that is easy to replicate, particularly on purpose.
    It should be noted that ARM relied heavily on public subsidy in its early days. Something that the US gets right, but is rarely done in the UK.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,963
    SO UK Polling Report gives Labour 310 and the Tories 296 seats on last night's yougov. Even if Labour loses 30 Scottish seats as looks likely that would still leave them on 280, clearly ahead of the 258 they won in 2010
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/swing-calculator
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Pulpstar said:

    Pong said:

    Sweating could be a major issue for the contestants in tonight's fight.Farage looked particularly out of shape in his first clash with Clegg but the risks of excessive perspiration are more real for Cameron,especially if it gets mixed up with the make-up powder and ends up dripping like sludge.Clegg's face is also worth a watch for puffiness-he looked to be going the same way as Elvis earlier on in the parliament.Miliband has far less of a puffy,sweaty look.
    I suspect too 2 contests,one for Head Girl and one for Head Boy but the sisterhood,working as a team,could end up the overall winner which is why I am backing Sturgeon at 9-1.

    A Sturgaculation is certainly possible. The problem is that she's not trying to appeal to a UK audience - her debate strategy is simple and very focussed. Expect lots of *scotland this* and *scotland that* - is that really going to win over the ~20-25% of the English people on the polling panel that she'd need, to come out as the winner?

    I dunno.
    Who will she go for ?

    Farage is pretty much an irrelevance to her, Leanne Wood is her ally and Bennett is a sort of neutral ally competitor (The Greens stand in Scotland, Plaid do NOT) .

    So her choices are obviously Clegg, Miliband and Cameron. The Scottish Lib Dem vote has already collapsed beyond repair - so my guess would be she'll go for Miliband particularly large on the fact that Labour are reasonably similiar to the Conservative spending plans (When compared to SNP).
    I'm assuming that the SNP, Greens and Plaid Cymru will have done some joint planning in advance of tonight. They portray themselves as an alliance. If they work in concert as they should, they could cause huge problems for the rest of the field, especially Ed Miliband.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,485
    Jonathan said:

    dr_spyn said:

    dr_spyn said:

    @Financier - Seeing R&D as an expensive luxury is part of the British disease. As are outdated working practices and technology. We have had one of the most deregulated labour markets anywhere in Europe for three decades now. It is not unions that have held us back; it is managements and our investment culture. Look at the performance of companies elsewhere in countries with far stronger labour laws than ours and similar levels of educational attainment.

    We don't produce R&D-based companies because our investors walk a mile from them - they are an upfront expense and returns do not fit the schedules they demand. Look at graphene: first produced in this country, but taken forward elsewhere by foreign businesses because none in the UK wanted to get involved.

    You might ask why is it that the university which carried out the research wasn't more entrepreneurial?

    That university would need capital to develop spin-outs and/or licensees willing to pay a royalty to work the relevant patents. The first means investors, the second means companies. Those are to be found outside the UK, but not here.

    So why does it work in the US? The academic culture here might be too complacent re risk taking, or the search for profits. Though @Financier has pointed to action.

    It's far easier to access capital in the US and much easier to find licensees (though recent and possible further changes to patent law will change that - much to the US's disadvantage).

    ARM?

    Yes, ARM is an outstanding exception. But given the quality of our universities there should be many more ARMs.

    Do you know why ARM has its rather unusual position in the industry?

    It is not something that is easy to replicate, particularly on purpose.
    It should be noted that ARM relied heavily on public subsidy in its early days. Something that the US gets right, but is rarely done in the UK.
    Did it rely on public subsidy? As a genuine question, which subsidies?

    It was jointly invested in by Apple (45% from memory), Acorn (45%), and VLSI (10%). I think VLSI's figures were lower than that and the other two's higher. I can't recall them getting subisides after they were spun out in 1990, but I've not looked into their early history for some years, and it was well before any involvement I may or may not have had with them.;-)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,543
    HYUFD said:

    SO UK Polling Report gives Labour 310 and the Tories 296 seats on last night's yougov. Even if Labour loses 30 Scottish seats as looks likely that would still leave them on 280, clearly ahead of the 258 they won in 2010
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/swing-calculator

    Factor in Lib Dem incumbency, and likely first time Conservative incumbency, and Labour would finish below 280.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Ishmael_X said:

    Indigo said:

    Sandpit said:

    There are nearly 3 BILLION aspirational Indians and Chinese waiting to take our place on the world stage, while we as a country seem to care only about what we can do without offending the producers...

    On a related topic I found this article in the paper yesterday extremely depressing.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/lifestyle/interiors/renovating/11507710/Lets-learn-to-abandon-our-DIY-dreams.html
    Surveys suggest that only 8 per cent of 18 to 25-year-olds can wire a plug. But then the same surveys report that only 12 per cent can use a drill..... The answer is not that they can’t do DIY, it is that they do not want to. In this they are becoming more like the French, for whom vast superstore aisles of red and white means wine, not rawlplugs.
    At the same time invention, creation, making stuff is becoming a huge movement in the USA. The maker movement is all over the country there, not just with magazines full of things to make, but lots of cutting edge technology being open sourced and democratised. It a lot of community centres in the USA its not uncommon to find lazer cutters, 3d printers, CNC mills and other high end production machinery available to rent by the hour or the job, so people can design and build their own products. Its challenging, empowering stuff, and we are going in the opposite direction... sad.
    I thought that wiring a plug is positively discouraged nowadays, with sealed plugs to avoid electrocution. Outside work (where some basic wiring is often needed), I haven't wired a plug for years.
    The 3 pin plug is surely the biggest design fail of all time: you end up stripping too much/not enough, not leaving enough to get round the corner, and then you upend the thing and the fuse holder bit falls out.


    The UK 3 pin plug is the greatest design triumph of all time.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    Pong said:

    Sweating could be a major issue for the contestants in tonight's fight.Farage looked particularly out of shape in his first clash with Clegg but the risks of excessive perspiration are more real for Cameron,especially if it gets mixed up with the make-up powder and ends up dripping like sludge.Clegg's face is also worth a watch for puffiness-he looked to be going the same way as Elvis earlier on in the parliament.Miliband has far less of a puffy,sweaty look.
    I suspect too 2 contests,one for Head Girl and one for Head Boy but the sisterhood,working as a team,could end up the overall winner which is why I am backing Sturgeon at 9-1.

    A Sturgaculation is certainly possible. The problem is that she's not trying to appeal to a UK audience - her debate strategy is simple and very focussed. Expect lots of *scotland this* and *scotland that* - is that really going to win over the ~20-25% of the English people on the polling panel that she'd need, to come out as the winner?

    I dunno.
    This seems to be a good reason for parties that only stand in one part of the UK to not be included in UK-wide debates.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    Incidentally, saw ITV News at Ten last night, and they seem to have a debate rating app. That'll be gamed by every party. SNP may do nicely on that measure.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Anyway, I hope you all enjoy the debate this evening. I shall be on a plane while it takes place.

    My other half actually asked me whether it would be on one of the catch-up services so that he could watch it later. Since he normally has a go at me for being so interested in "that political betting shite", I was left lost for words.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    OGH makes much of the Tories 2010 lead tie with Labour among teachers:

    For five years teachers have complained about the damaging and ill-considered changes forced upon them by the Conservatives. So why does it appear – based on grumblings heard in staffrooms and across social media – that Labour has yet to secure the teachers’ vote?

    The answer, according to National Union of Teachers general secretary, Christine Blower, is that many of her members remain politely but firmly sceptical of Labour and its shadow education secretary, Tristram Hunt.


    http://www.theguardian.com/education/2015/apr/02/teachers-dont-like-the-tories-so-why-isnt-labour-benefiting

    Someone I know who works with children is contemptuous of some of Labours ill thought out plans - latest one to set him off was the apprenticeship wheeze which actually is worse in some ways than the existing provision.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited April 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    Pong said:

    Sweating could be a major issue for the contestants in tonight's fight.Farage looked particularly out of shape in his first clash with Clegg but the risks of excessive perspiration are more real for Cameron,especially if it gets mixed up with the make-up powder and ends up dripping like sludge.Clegg's face is also worth a watch for puffiness-he looked to be going the same way as Elvis earlier on in the parliament.Miliband has far less of a puffy,sweaty look.
    I suspect too 2 contests,one for Head Girl and one for Head Boy but the sisterhood,working as a team,could end up the overall winner which is why I am backing Sturgeon at 9-1.

    A Sturgaculation is certainly possible. The problem is that she's not trying to appeal to a UK audience - her debate strategy is simple and very focussed. Expect lots of *scotland this* and *scotland that* - is that really going to win over the ~20-25% of the English people on the polling panel that she'd need, to come out as the winner?

    I dunno.
    Who will she go for ?

    Farage is pretty much an irrelevance to her, Leanne Wood is her ally and Bennett is a sort of neutral ally competitor (The Greens stand in Scotland, Plaid do NOT) .

    So her choices are obviously Clegg, Miliband and Cameron. The Scottish Lib Dem vote has already collapsed beyond repair - so my guess would be she'll go for Miliband particularly large on the fact that Labour are reasonably similiar to the Conservative spending plans (When compared to SNP).
    She'll happily give dave and nick a kicking - the interesting thing will be the dynamic with ed. passive/aggressive maybe?

    If I were to advise her, I'd go with "the tories have spent the last 5 years eating babies and you've barely even noticed." type of thing.

    I'm sure she doesn't need my advice though!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,137
    antifrank said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pong said:

    Sweating could be a major issue for the contestants in tonight's fight.Farage looked particularly out of shape in his first clash with Clegg but the risks of excessive perspiration are more real for Cameron,especially if it gets mixed up with the make-up powder and ends up dripping like sludge.Clegg's face is also worth a watch for puffiness-he looked to be going the same way as Elvis earlier on in the parliament.Miliband has far less of a puffy,sweaty look.
    I suspect too 2 contests,one for Head Girl and one for Head Boy but the sisterhood,working as a team,could end up the overall winner which is why I am backing Sturgeon at 9-1.

    A Sturgaculation is certainly possible. The problem is that she's not trying to appeal to a UK audience - her debate strategy is simple and very focussed. Expect lots of *scotland this* and *scotland that* - is that really going to win over the ~20-25% of the English people on the polling panel that she'd need, to come out as the winner?

    I dunno.
    Who will she go for ?

    Farage is pretty much an irrelevance to her, Leanne Wood is her ally and Bennett is a sort of neutral ally competitor (The Greens stand in Scotland, Plaid do NOT) .

    So her choices are obviously Clegg, Miliband and Cameron. The Scottish Lib Dem vote has already collapsed beyond repair - so my guess would be she'll go for Miliband particularly large on the fact that Labour are reasonably similiar to the Conservative spending plans (When compared to SNP).
    I'm assuming that the SNP, Greens and Plaid Cymru will have done some joint planning in advance of tonight. They portray themselves as an alliance. If they work in concert as they should, they could cause huge problems for the rest of the field, especially Ed Miliband.
    I have money on Sturgeon as an outside, bit of fun bet. I'm not that hopeful however. She may come across as the most passionate which might help.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    antifrank said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pong said:

    Sweating could be a major issue for the contestants in tonight's fight.Farage looked particularly out of shape in his first clash with Clegg but the risks of excessive perspiration are more real for Cameron,especially if it gets mixed up with the make-up powder and ends up dripping like sludge.Clegg's face is also worth a watch for puffiness-he looked to be going the same way as Elvis earlier on in the parliament.Miliband has far less of a puffy,sweaty look.
    I suspect too 2 contests,one for Head Girl and one for Head Boy but the sisterhood,working as a team,could end up the overall winner which is why I am backing Sturgeon at 9-1.

    A Sturgaculation is certainly possible. The problem is that she's not trying to appeal to a UK audience - her debate strategy is simple and very focussed. Expect lots of *scotland this* and *scotland that* - is that really going to win over the ~20-25% of the English people on the polling panel that she'd need, to come out as the winner?

    I dunno.
    Who will she go for ?

    Farage is pretty much an irrelevance to her, Leanne Wood is her ally and Bennett is a sort of neutral ally competitor (The Greens stand in Scotland, Plaid do NOT) .

    So her choices are obviously Clegg, Miliband and Cameron. The Scottish Lib Dem vote has already collapsed beyond repair - so my guess would be she'll go for Miliband particularly large on the fact that Labour are reasonably similiar to the Conservative spending plans (When compared to SNP).
    I'm assuming that the SNP, Greens and Plaid Cymru will have done some joint planning in advance of tonight. They portray themselves as an alliance. If they work in concert as they should, they could cause huge problems for the rest of the field, especially Ed Miliband.
    Plaid Cymru and the SNP certainly are an alliance. Nathalie indeed only represents the Green party of England and Wales (Though whether people will distinguish between them and the Scottish Greens is doubtful).

    http://www.scottishgreens.org.uk/westminster2015-2/

    Scottish Green candidates here. Note no candidates for the moment in P&RS and East Renfrewshire (And nicely from a betting perspective Cumbernauld...) , hopefully the rest aren't overworking ;)
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    HYUFD said:

    SO UK Polling Report gives Labour 310 and the Tories 296 seats on last night's yougov. Even if Labour loses 30 Scottish seats as looks likely that would still leave them on 280, clearly ahead of the 258 they won in 2010
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/swing-calculator

    We'll see. I suspect Labour is not going to do as well as "just" losing 30 seats in Scotland, while much of England may also be a struggle. They should make gains in London and some in Wales and the North, but the Midlands and the South will be very hard. Overall it's hard to see Labour winning many more seats than they will lose in Scotland.

  • edited April 2015
    Alistair said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Indigo said:

    Sandpit said:

    There are nearly 3 BILLION aspirational Indians and Chinese waiting to take our place on the world stage, while we as a country seem to care only about what we can do without offending the producers...

    On a related topic I found this article in the paper yesterday extremely depressing.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/lifestyle/interiors/renovating/11507710/Lets-learn-to-abandon-our-DIY-dreams.html
    Surveys suggest that only 8 per cent of 18 to 25-year-olds can wire a plug. But then the same surveys report that only 12 per cent can use a drill..... The answer is not that they can’t do DIY, it is that they do not want to. In this they are becoming more like the French, for whom vast superstore aisles of red and white means wine, not rawlplugs.
    At the same time invention, creation, making stuff is becoming a huge movement in the USA. The maker movement is all over the country there, not just with magazines full of things to make, but lots of cutting edge technology being open sourced and democratised. It a lot of community centres in the USA its not uncommon to find lazer cutters, 3d printers, CNC mills and other high end production machinery available to rent by the hour or the job, so people can design and build their own products. Its challenging, empowering stuff, and we are going in the opposite direction... sad.
    I thought that wiring a plug is positively discouraged nowadays, with sealed plugs to avoid electrocution. Outside work (where some basic wiring is often needed), I haven't wired a plug for years.
    The 3 pin plug is surely the biggest design fail of all time: you end up stripping too much/not enough, not leaving enough to get round the corner, and then you upend the thing and the fuse holder bit falls out.
    The UK 3 pin plug is the greatest design triumph of all time.

    My second greatest achievement in life was designing a 3 pin plug where each of the screws was the same distance from the flex entry, thus meaning one didn't need to shorten the individual wires. This being Britain, I did nothing with my idea whatsoever and allowed the country too be flooded with moulded plugs, then complained about globalisation and lack of government support.

    My greatest achievement was to invent a word and get it into common parlance. Sturgaculation has been used on this thread, albeit only once (so not so common). Whoever used it, I thank you.

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