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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB edge a notch up in the “most seats” betting but CON sti

SystemSystem Posts: 12,215
edited March 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB edge a notch up in the “most seats” betting but CON still very strong favourite

There’s been a small recovery for LAB in the most seats betting over the past week and since last night’s C4/Sky “debate” that trend has continued.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • First ..... again!
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited March 2015
    Stephen Fisher's latest GE Seats projection is expected in the next few hours. A modest upturn in the Tories' prospects can presumably be expected assuming last night's YouGov poll arrived in time for inclusion in the input data.
    Whether this will impact on Sporting's seats spread prices and the other betting markets remain to be seen.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,041

    First ..... again!

    Didn't even leave me the second spot. Meanie!
  • Skill Rob, pure skill!
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
    Moving average chart of YouGov polls since the 2012 local elections. Click to enlarge...

    Simple, Free Image and File Hosting at MediaFire
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    edited March 2015
    Good morning!

    (edit)
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election & "JackW Dozen" Projection Countdown :

    26 hours 26 minutes 26 seconds
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Still puzzled where does the Sporting Index punters think the UKIP seats are coming from ? Solid performance from Ed last night ! Dave, as shifty as ever !
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    @Mukesh

    "Unsure why Paxman`s `Are you alright Ed?`would be talking point when Ed retorted beautifully `Are you?`. "

    Paxo needed that reassurance. He was just water of ED's back.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MSmithsonPB: Reflecting on last night Miliband might not be the huge negative for LAB and big plus for CON that was being predicted.

    It would have been quicker to write "Cameron can't win"
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,706
    Cameron needs to do much better next time.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Good morning all and if the result from the Glenrothes result is correct, Cameron was correct when he wished Michael Connerty a happy retirement. If the SNP can win council by-elections on a 10% the GE should be very "do-able".

    Good to see Tories winning a council seat in a key part of Wales too.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,142
    The choice of people in the spin room featuring on newsnight was interesting. If I was a Labour leader, I'd want Mandelson talking up my performance. Instead, Caroline Flint appeared. Revealing?
  • Labour will make important gains in London in the general election, according to a special Guardian/ICM telephone poll which shows the party winning several seats in the capital.

    The party is set to advance by 5 percentage points from its previous general election performance to reach 42% – and is a full 10 points ahead of the Tories, who fall back 3 points from their 2010 result to land at 32%.

    On a uniform swing, these numbers would deliver eight gains for Labour, mostly in the west of the city – where Brentford and Isleworth, Ealing Central and Acton, and Harrow East would all be picked up from the Tories.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/27/london-labour-gains-general-election-poll
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    surbiton said:

    Still puzzled where does the Sporting Index punters think the UKIP seats are coming from ? Solid performance from Ed last night ! Dave, as shifty as ever !

    Massive tail risk.

    Sell UKIP seats if you like though.
  • Skill Rob, pure skill!

    Just like Jack W's ARSE :)

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,706
    Scott_P said:

    @MSmithsonPB: Reflecting on last night Miliband might not be the huge negative for LAB and big plus for CON that was being predicted.

    It would have been quicker to write "Cameron can't win"

    Mike nailed his colours to the Labour-will-win mast months ago. You can't blame him for constantly looking for evidence to support that position.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,706

    Labour will make important gains in London in the general election, according to a special Guardian/ICM telephone poll which shows the party winning several seats in the capital.

    The party is set to advance by 5 percentage points from its previous general election performance to reach 42% – and is a full 10 points ahead of the Tories, who fall back 3 points from their 2010 result to land at 32%.

    On a uniform swing, these numbers would deliver eight gains for Labour, mostly in the west of the city – where Brentford and Isleworth, Ealing Central and Acton, and Harrow East would all be picked up from the Tories.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/27/london-labour-gains-general-election-poll

    I can believe it. London is a very different city, now.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    edited March 2015
    Burnap, Gibson, Southern, Sloane & Williams forecast looks a little... optimistic for Labour to me.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Some more detailed thoughts from last night.

    Basically, with the exception of a few dangerous moments (NHS, zero hours) Cameron was pretty composed throughout. If you were looking for competence in public speaking and general reassurance he was your man all the way. On the other hand, the questioning in the town hall section was so soft as to make it boring. I'll come back to this.

    Ed had some moments when his training outweighed his general style and he looked passionate rather than wonkish or laid back a la Cameron. But put under any pressure he looked uncomfortable and repeated stock phrases, making him seem less credible. But whereas Cameron was almost relentlessly on message ("strong economy... long term plan... pay down the debts....hard decisions"), Miliband was able to disown New Labour and make a lot of substantive points - it will have done him no harm to mention Iraq, Syria, or bank reregulation. He was also memorable - particularly when fighting back against Paxman.

    If you went into the debate disliking Miliband for style reasons, you will have come out with more ammunition. But if the door was open slightly Ed might have opened it further.

    Being in all the debates is looking like a good move for Miliband if only because he will get his chance to hammer home the message: I'm not slick like Cameron but I have an alternative vision for Britain.


    The other point to make is: what a disaster for Nick Clegg this is - dismissed as a byword for political lies, and ignored for the other 89 minutes.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,975
    edited March 2015
    I missed the debate. I was out and the streets were packed with people who must have also missed them.

    Strange flicking through here you'd think there was a parallel universe.

    Anyway from the snippets I've picked up Ed was somewhere short of a revelation but quite a surprise. So I suppose slightly positive.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915

    Labour will make important gains in London in the general election, according to a special Guardian/ICM telephone poll which shows the party winning several seats in the capital.

    The party is set to advance by 5 percentage points from its previous general election performance to reach 42% – and is a full 10 points ahead of the Tories, who fall back 3 points from their 2010 result to land at 32%.

    On a uniform swing, these numbers would deliver eight gains for Labour, mostly in the west of the city – where Brentford and Isleworth, Ealing Central and Acton, and Harrow East would all be picked up from the Tories.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/27/london-labour-gains-general-election-poll

    Those numbers fall in the middle of the last couple of YouGov London polls. 3% is not a lot to recover over a 6-week campaign.
  • Freggles said:

    Some more detailed thoughts from last night.

    Basically, with the exception of a few dangerous moments (NHS, zero hours) Cameron was pretty composed throughout. If you were looking for competence in public speaking and general reassurance he was your man all the way. On the other hand, the questioning in the town hall section was so soft as to make it boring. I'll come back to this.

    Ed had some moments when his training outweighed his general style and he looked passionate rather than wonkish or laid back a la Cameron. But put under any pressure he looked uncomfortable and repeated stock phrases, making him seem less credible. But whereas Cameron was almost relentlessly on message ("strong economy... long term plan... pay down the debts....hard decisions"), Miliband was able to disown New Labour and make a lot of substantive points - it will have done him no harm to mention Iraq, Syria, or bank reregulation. He was also memorable - particularly when fighting back against Paxman.

    If you went into the debate disliking Miliband for style reasons, you will have come out with more ammunition. But if the door was open slightly Ed might have opened it further.

    Being in all the debates is looking like a good move for Miliband if only because he will get his chance to hammer home the message: I'm not slick like Cameron but I have an alternative vision for Britain.


    The other point to make is: what a disaster for Nick Clegg this is - dismissed as a byword for political lies, and ignored for the other 89 minutes.

    That's what Cammo and Ed thought, too! See, there is the beginning of the possibility of a possibility of a Grand Coalition!

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Roger said:

    Anyway from the snippets I've picked up Ed was somewhere short of a revelation but quite a surprise! So I suppose slightly positive?

    @ShippersUnbound: Those Paxman exchanges in summary: as expected, Ed Miliband did better than expected. If that makes sense.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538

    Labour will make important gains in London in the general election, according to a special Guardian/ICM telephone poll which shows the party winning several seats in the capital.

    The party is set to advance by 5 percentage points from its previous general election performance to reach 42% – and is a full 10 points ahead of the Tories, who fall back 3 points from their 2010 result to land at 32%.

    On a uniform swing, these numbers would deliver eight gains for Labour, mostly in the west of the city – where Brentford and Isleworth, Ealing Central and Acton, and Harrow East would all be picked up from the Tories.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/27/london-labour-gains-general-election-poll

    I can believe it. London is a very different city, now.
    A 4% swing is in line with the polling average for England.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,712
    I’m still amazed at Dave’s extraordinary comment that the rise in foodbank use is because Job Centres now tell people about them!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672

    Labour will make important gains in London in the general election, according to a special Guardian/ICM telephone poll which shows the party winning several seats in the capital.

    The party is set to advance by 5 percentage points from its previous general election performance to reach 42% – and is a full 10 points ahead of the Tories, who fall back 3 points from their 2010 result to land at 32%.

    On a uniform swing, these numbers would deliver eight gains for Labour, mostly in the west of the city – where Brentford and Isleworth, Ealing Central and Acton, and Harrow East would all be picked up from the Tories.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/27/london-labour-gains-general-election-poll

    I can believe it. London is a very different city, now.

    Indeed - Labour used to do much better in London (50% of the vote in 97). I blame all the immigrants.

  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    surbiton said:

    Still puzzled where does the Sporting Index punters think the UKIP seats are coming from ? Solid performance from Ed last night ! Dave, as shifty as ever !

    You keep saying this, have you sold Ukip seats or taken the equivalent bet in fixed odds form?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    @Freggles

    Ed Miliband did reveal a bit of himself last night.

    In particular he depicted his battle with his brother as a political one, a turning away from New Labour. His remarks about spending in the Brown years were interesting too. He thought that they had not tackled inequality enough by government spending. Yet he also said that spending would go down under his power.

    It really was unclear even in his own mind whether Labour would continue austerity, or would spend even more to reduce inequality. Hopefully this will be clarified over the next six weeks.


  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    I’m still amazed at Dave’s extraordinary comment that the rise in foodbank use is because Job Centres now tell people about them!

    What is extraordinary about that?

    If you make things easier for people to find and use, more people will use them. Advertising works.

    Ask Roger
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    It really was unclear even in his own mind whether Labour would continue austerity, or would spend even more to reduce inequality.

    Labour would spend more.

    Government spending does not reduce inequality.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,025
    edited March 2015
    For me the interviews showed the strength and the weakness of Ed Miliband. He is quite good at identifying and classifying a problem. It is why he scores better on things like understanding or caring about someone like me.

    He is astonishingly and slightly scarily bad at solutions. He means well. He wants to help and make things better but he has absolutely no concept of how to do it. When he has tried, like with his energy freeze, he has come across as a joke. So we are left with bland and ultimately meaningless aspirations.

    Last night he walked away from so many aspects of the last Labour government that it gave Paxo nowhere to go. Wrong on immigration, wrong on spending, wrong on borrowing, wrong on Iraq, wrong on bank regulation. The refusal to defend the indefensible was a good tactic. Since he has no clear current ideas either we were left with him so we had too much personal stuff, most of which he dealt with fairly well.

    But at the end of the day I don't really care what his relationship with his brother is or even how his mum feels about it. I want a PM who is a man with a plan and in that category he is not even at the races.
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191

    Labour will make important gains in London in the general election, according to a special Guardian/ICM telephone poll which shows the party winning several seats in the capital.

    The party is set to advance by 5 percentage points from its previous general election performance to reach 42% – and is a full 10 points ahead of the Tories, who fall back 3 points from their 2010 result to land at 32%.

    On a uniform swing, these numbers would deliver eight gains for Labour, mostly in the west of the city – where Brentford and Isleworth, Ealing Central and Acton, and Harrow East would all be picked up from the Tories.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/27/london-labour-gains-general-election-poll

    I can believe it. London is a very different city, now.

    I blame all the immigrants.
    Bloody foreigners - coming over here, and paying our taxes :-)
  • roserees64roserees64 Posts: 251
    I was very impressed with Paxman's impartiality, tough on both of the leaders. Kay Burley was so biased towards Cameron and quite hostile towards Miliband, however her plan backfired as the audience turned against her.Verdict - both had flaws and Cameron appeared smooth while Miliband seemed authentic.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,712
    Scott_P said:

    I’m still amazed at Dave’s extraordinary comment that the rise in foodbank use is because Job Centres now tell people about them!

    What is extraordinary about that?

    If you make things easier for people to find and use, more people will use them. Advertising works.

    Ask Roger
    It was his implication that that was the only reason.
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    Can't believe that anyone impartial could think Miliband won the debates last night. He was poor at answering the questions, Cameron was well prepared and briefed even on the difficult territory of zero hour contracts. The media are desperate for the election to be a close race between the two of them, they were desperate for Cameron to slip up (he didn't) and hoping that Miliband would exceed expectations (which it was impossible not to do, and he managed it).
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538

    Labour will make important gains in London in the general election, according to a special Guardian/ICM telephone poll which shows the party winning several seats in the capital.

    The party is set to advance by 5 percentage points from its previous general election performance to reach 42% – and is a full 10 points ahead of the Tories, who fall back 3 points from their 2010 result to land at 32%.

    On a uniform swing, these numbers would deliver eight gains for Labour, mostly in the west of the city – where Brentford and Isleworth, Ealing Central and Acton, and Harrow East would all be picked up from the Tories.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/27/london-labour-gains-general-election-poll

    I can believe it. London is a very different city, now.

    Indeed - Labour used to do much better in London (50% of the vote in 97). I blame all the immigrants.

    1997 was exceptional. The Conservatives were destroyed in their "safe" North London seats.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Millsy said:

    Can't believe that anyone impartial could think Miliband won the debates last night. He was poor at answering the questions, Cameron was well prepared and briefed even on the difficult territory of zero hour contracts. The media are desperate for the election to be a close race between the two of them, they were desperate for Cameron to slip up (he didn't) and hoping that Miliband would exceed expectations (which it was impossible not to do, and he managed it).

    Cameron's face was getting so red, he looked like a socialist !
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Roger said:

    I missed the debate. I was out and the streets were packed with people who must have also missed them.

    Strange flicking through here you'd think there was a parallel universe.

    Anyway from the snippets I've picked up Ed was somewhere short of a revelation but quite a surprise. So I suppose slightly positive.

    Like you Roger I didn't bother with the debates and went to bed instead. I got up this morning and the world was pretty much the same. A few excited anoraks but that's normal.

    The debates from what I can gather prattled on about not very much and missed all the big issues impacting the GBP ( Great British Public ) like can 1D survive without Zayn or why has Kim dyed her hair black again ? Not only did it appear Cameron and Miliband had no opinions on this but Paxman didn't even ask the questions !

    A shoddy show.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Gadfly said:

    Labour will make important gains in London in the general election, according to a special Guardian/ICM telephone poll which shows the party winning several seats in the capital.

    The party is set to advance by 5 percentage points from its previous general election performance to reach 42% – and is a full 10 points ahead of the Tories, who fall back 3 points from their 2010 result to land at 32%.

    On a uniform swing, these numbers would deliver eight gains for Labour, mostly in the west of the city – where Brentford and Isleworth, Ealing Central and Acton, and Harrow East would all be picked up from the Tories.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/27/london-labour-gains-general-election-poll

    I can believe it. London is a very different city, now.

    I blame all the immigrants.
    Bloody foreigners - coming over here, and paying our taxes :-)
    It's worse that that - coming over here, doing the work we would not do and then paying their taxes :-)
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    edited March 2015
    To all those people who compare the ICM poll result to standard question choosing between Miliband and Cameron (the gap was only 8% omg!), did ICM actually ask comparable questions or is it apples and pears?
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    Gadfly said:

    Labour will make important gains in London in the general election, according to a special Guardian/ICM telephone poll which shows the party winning several seats in the capital.

    The party is set to advance by 5 percentage points from its previous general election performance to reach 42% – and is a full 10 points ahead of the Tories, who fall back 3 points from their 2010 result to land at 32%.

    On a uniform swing, these numbers would deliver eight gains for Labour, mostly in the west of the city – where Brentford and Isleworth, Ealing Central and Acton, and Harrow East would all be picked up from the Tories.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/27/london-labour-gains-general-election-poll

    I can believe it. London is a very different city, now.

    I blame all the immigrants.
    Bloody foreigners - coming over here, and paying our taxes :-)
    They don't though, they are massive economic burden, even before we consider social costs.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    I’m still amazed at Dave’s extraordinary comment that the rise in foodbank use is because Job Centres now tell people about them!

    Part of the rise is the delay in getting benefits when people do sign on or their work circumstances change, partly because many of these are paid monthly deliberately to force people to budget.

    Failed asylum seekers and those who have not complied with requirements for other benefits (such as evidence of job seeking) also have nowhere else to go.

    Actual benefits levels are largely unchanged, indeed ascmost are CPI linked they have outpaced earnings over the last 5 years. What has happened is that the barriers have gone up making them harder to access.

    Which leaves the obvious question: What would Miliband do about this? Allow people benefits even if they do not seek work? Have an ambesty for failed asylum seekers?

    Miliband is not wrong on analysis, just incapable of solutions.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @politicshome: .@NicolaSturgeon says @Ed_Miliband "still clinging to pretence that he's got some kind of chance of winning an overall majority” #r4today
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    surbiton said:

    Still puzzled where does the Sporting Index punters think the UKIP seats are coming from ? Solid performance from Ed last night ! Dave, as shifty as ever !

    You keep saying this, have you sold Ukip seats or taken the equivalent bet in fixed odds form?
    Why don't you answer the main question ? Where are these 6 - 8 seats ? I can be sure of only one.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    surbiton said:

    Gadfly said:

    Labour will make important gains in London in the general election, according to a special Guardian/ICM telephone poll which shows the party winning several seats in the capital.

    The party is set to advance by 5 percentage points from its previous general election performance to reach 42% – and is a full 10 points ahead of the Tories, who fall back 3 points from their 2010 result to land at 32%.

    On a uniform swing, these numbers would deliver eight gains for Labour, mostly in the west of the city – where Brentford and Isleworth, Ealing Central and Acton, and Harrow East would all be picked up from the Tories.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/27/london-labour-gains-general-election-poll

    I can believe it. London is a very different city, now.

    I blame all the immigrants.
    Bloody foreigners - coming over here, and paying our taxes :-)
    It's worse that that - coming over here, doing the work we would not do and then paying their taxes :-)
    So your company doesn't train its workforce ?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    I’m still amazed at Dave’s extraordinary comment that the rise in foodbank use is because Job Centres now tell people about them!

    He is from a different world. In many ways, almost like a royal. Not only has he not experienced poverty, he actually cannot imagine what it is like. For people like him, poverty is tackled by ticking gift tax box.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Does anyone know what the viewership figures were?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    surbiton said:

    Gadfly said:

    Labour will make important gains in London in the general election, according to a special Guardian/ICM telephone poll which shows the party winning several seats in the capital.

    The party is set to advance by 5 percentage points from its previous general election performance to reach 42% – and is a full 10 points ahead of the Tories, who fall back 3 points from their 2010 result to land at 32%.

    On a uniform swing, these numbers would deliver eight gains for Labour, mostly in the west of the city – where Brentford and Isleworth, Ealing Central and Acton, and Harrow East would all be picked up from the Tories.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/27/london-labour-gains-general-election-poll

    I can believe it. London is a very different city, now.

    I blame all the immigrants.
    Bloody foreigners - coming over here, and paying our taxes :-)
    It's worse that that - coming over here, doing the work we would not do and then paying their taxes :-)
    So your company doesn't train its workforce ?
    Actually, my company does not employ anyone with a work permit currently. We used to have two, both have moved on. One, we kind of helped him move on !
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    surbiton said:

    Gadfly said:

    Labour will make important gains in London in the general election, according to a special Guardian/ICM telephone poll which shows the party winning several seats in the capital.

    The party is set to advance by 5 percentage points from its previous general election performance to reach 42% – and is a full 10 points ahead of the Tories, who fall back 3 points from their 2010 result to land at 32%.

    On a uniform swing, these numbers would deliver eight gains for Labour, mostly in the west of the city – where Brentford and Isleworth, Ealing Central and Acton, and Harrow East would all be picked up from the Tories.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/27/london-labour-gains-general-election-poll

    I can believe it. London is a very different city, now.

    I blame all the immigrants.
    Bloody foreigners - coming over here, and paying our taxes :-)
    It's worse that that - coming over here, doing the work we would not do and then paying their taxes :-)
    Employment rates are higher, overall, among British-born people of working age, than among foreign-born people of working age.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    FalseFlag said:

    Gadfly said:

    Labour will make important gains in London in the general election, according to a special Guardian/ICM telephone poll which shows the party winning several seats in the capital.

    The party is set to advance by 5 percentage points from its previous general election performance to reach 42% – and is a full 10 points ahead of the Tories, who fall back 3 points from their 2010 result to land at 32%.

    On a uniform swing, these numbers would deliver eight gains for Labour, mostly in the west of the city – where Brentford and Isleworth, Ealing Central and Acton, and Harrow East would all be picked up from the Tories.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/27/london-labour-gains-general-election-poll

    I can believe it. London is a very different city, now.

    I blame all the immigrants.
    Bloody foreigners - coming over here, and paying our taxes :-)
    They don't though, they are massive economic burden, even before we consider social costs.
    Demography, dear boy, demography ! Who will pay the taxes to fund the cost our aging population ?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,568
    Score draw, which is helpful to Miliband. But it's interesting to see the advantages and drawbacks of the interview format vs a debate.

    On the positive side, it made the discussion overwhelmingly positive or at least focused on the interviewee - what would you do and what did you get wrong, rather than why is the other lot rubbish. The few attempts to attack the other side were swiftly squashed or passed over. On the whole, I think the casual viewer would have drawn a somewhat more positive view of both of them.

    On the downside, neither of them got a real opportunity to develop a theme, since it was dictated entirely by the questions. DavidL would have liked to hear more from Miliband about what he wants to do, but he was asked very little about that - the questions were mostly about past record, relations with his brother, and so on. In the same way, Cameron was pressed on food banks, NHS failings, and so on other perceived problems. Purely from the viewpoint of information, I think a mix of the debate format with 10 minutes to speak freely would be what works best.
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 733
    SMukesh said:

    Does anyone know what the viewership figures were?

    Those figures are released at 9.30.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCNormanS: Ed Miliband clinging to the pretence he has a chance of winning a majority says @NicolaSturgeon @BBCr4today

    @BBCNormanS: Scotland First Minister @NicolaSturgeon predicts many Labour MPs will back SNP over anti austerity and Trident @bbcr4today

    @BBCNormanS: 4 out of 5 Labour candidates back @theSNP over opposing Trident says @NicolaSturgeon @BBCr4today

    Nicola v Ed could be entertaining
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    surbiton said:

    FalseFlag said:

    Gadfly said:

    Labour will make important gains in London in the general election, according to a special Guardian/ICM telephone poll which shows the party winning several seats in the capital.

    The party is set to advance by 5 percentage points from its previous general election performance to reach 42% – and is a full 10 points ahead of the Tories, who fall back 3 points from their 2010 result to land at 32%.

    On a uniform swing, these numbers would deliver eight gains for Labour, mostly in the west of the city – where Brentford and Isleworth, Ealing Central and Acton, and Harrow East would all be picked up from the Tories.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/27/london-labour-gains-general-election-poll

    I can believe it. London is a very different city, now.

    I blame all the immigrants.
    Bloody foreigners - coming over here, and paying our taxes :-)
    They don't though, they are massive economic burden, even before we consider social costs.
    Demography, dear boy, demography ! Who will pay the taxes to fund the cost our aging population ?
    During this century the human population will stop growing and start to decline. What will you do then ?

    Better to face the problem and come up with solutions.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    Still puzzled where does the Sporting Index punters think the UKIP seats are coming from ? Solid performance from Ed last night ! Dave, as shifty as ever !

    You keep saying this, have you sold Ukip seats or taken the equivalent bet in fixed odds form?
    Why don't you answer the main question ? Where are these 6 - 8 seats ? I can be sure of only one.
    There don't have to be 6-8 seats, there is a body of 3-4 UKIP seats and then alot of potential gains on a good night.

    The body is

    Clacton; Thurrock; Thanet South

    And then on a good night

    Rochester is held, Castle point taken; Great Grimsby, Basildon, Dudley North, Walsall South.
    ....
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    surbiton said:

    I’m still amazed at Dave’s extraordinary comment that the rise in foodbank use is because Job Centres now tell people about them!

    He is from a different world. In many ways, almost like a royal. Not only has he not experienced poverty, he actually cannot imagine what it is like. For people like him, poverty is tackled by ticking gift tax box.
    Cameron is, to a significant extent, correct.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    Score draw, which is helpful to Miliband. But it's interesting to see the advantages and drawbacks of the interview format vs a debate.

    On the positive side, it made the discussion overwhelmingly positive or at least focused on the interviewee - what would you do and what did you get wrong, rather than why is the other lot rubbish. The few attempts to attack the other side were swiftly squashed or passed over. On the whole, I think the casual viewer would have drawn a somewhat more positive view of both of them.

    On the downside, neither of them got a real opportunity to develop a theme, since it was dictated entirely by the questions. DavidL would have liked to hear more from Miliband about what he wants to do, but he was asked very little about that - the questions were mostly about past record, relations with his brother, and so on. In the same way, Cameron was pressed on food banks, NHS failings, and so on other perceived problems. Purely from the viewpoint of information, I think a mix of the debate format with 10 minutes to speak freely would be what works best.

    Score draw.

    The ICM figures were 54-46 to Cameron.

    Have you become a ScotNat now Nick ?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,706

    Labour will make important gains in London in the general election, according to a special Guardian/ICM telephone poll which shows the party winning several seats in the capital.

    The party is set to advance by 5 percentage points from its previous general election performance to reach 42% – and is a full 10 points ahead of the Tories, who fall back 3 points from their 2010 result to land at 32%.

    On a uniform swing, these numbers would deliver eight gains for Labour, mostly in the west of the city – where Brentford and Isleworth, Ealing Central and Acton, and Harrow East would all be picked up from the Tories.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/27/london-labour-gains-general-election-poll

    I can believe it. London is a very different city, now.

    Indeed - Labour used to do much better in London (50% of the vote in 97). I blame all the immigrants.

    Long-term London is trending heavily to Labour. We both know the Tories have a problem in attracting votes from immigrants, except in Harrow which bucks the trend.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Scott_P said:

    @BBCNormanS: Ed Miliband clinging to the pretence he has a chance of winning a majority says @NicolaSturgeon @BBCr4today

    @BBCNormanS: Scotland First Minister @NicolaSturgeon predicts many Labour MPs will back SNP over anti austerity and Trident @bbcr4today

    @BBCNormanS: 4 out of 5 Labour candidates back @theSNP over opposing Trident says @NicolaSturgeon @BBCr4today

    Nicola v Ed could be entertaining

    Actually stopping [ or "postponing" ] Trident and a re-look at HS2 can get rid of austerity altogether. Spend the money where it is needed.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Good morning, everyone.

    Tried watching the interview/Q&A. Painful viewing. Miliband looked well-rehearsed, although as I only saw a few seconds that could be mistaken.
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801

    Labour will make important gains in London in the general election, according to a special Guardian/ICM telephone poll which shows the party winning several seats in the capital.

    The party is set to advance by 5 percentage points from its previous general election performance to reach 42% – and is a full 10 points ahead of the Tories, who fall back 3 points from their 2010 result to land at 32%.

    On a uniform swing, these numbers would deliver eight gains for Labour, mostly in the west of the city – where Brentford and Isleworth, Ealing Central and Acton, and Harrow East would all be picked up from the Tories.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/27/london-labour-gains-general-election-poll

    I can believe it. London is a very different city, now.

    Indeed - Labour used to do much better in London (50% of the vote in 97). I blame all the immigrants.

    Long-term London is trending heavily to Labour. We both know the Tories have a problem in attracting votes from immigrants, except in Harrow which bucks the trend.
    Increasing numbers of white people switching Conservative are offsetting this, for the time being.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    Good morning, everyone.

    Tried watching the interview/Q&A. Painful viewing. Miliband looked well-rehearsed, although as I only saw a few seconds that could be mistaken.

    When he was on form he looked very fluent, but when trying to reject the basis of the question he got a beasting.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Score draw, which is helpful to Miliband. But it's interesting to see the advantages and drawbacks of the interview format vs a debate.

    On the positive side, it made the discussion overwhelmingly positive or at least focused on the interviewee - what would you do and what did you get wrong, rather than why is the other lot rubbish. The few attempts to attack the other side were swiftly squashed or passed over. On the whole, I think the casual viewer would have drawn a somewhat more positive view of both of them.

    On the downside, neither of them got a real opportunity to develop a theme, since it was dictated entirely by the questions. DavidL would have liked to hear more from Miliband about what he wants to do, but he was asked very little about that - the questions were mostly about past record, relations with his brother, and so on. In the same way, Cameron was pressed on food banks, NHS failings, and so on other perceived problems. Purely from the viewpoint of information, I think a mix of the debate format with 10 minutes to speak freely would be what works best.

    Score draw.

    The ICM figures were 54-46 to Cameron.

    Have you become a ScotNat now Nick ?
    Classic BBC on R4 today from Norman Smith "Despite the post debate polls showing a win for Mr Cameron, it may be Mr Milibands team who are the happier this morning..."

    The segment on spending was poison for Ed - he needs better answer fast.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,142
    Millsy said:

    Can't believe that anyone impartial could think Miliband won the debates last night. He was poor at answering the questions, Cameron was well prepared and briefed even on the difficult territory of zero hour contracts. The media are desperate for the election to be a close race between the two of them, they were desperate for Cameron to slip up (he didn't) and hoping that Miliband would exceed expectations (which it was impossible not to do, and he managed it).

    Indeed. Which is why every poll I've seen (ICM, YouGov, and several voodoo polls - Newsnight, Telegraph online) gave the win to Cam....

  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    TGOHF said:

    Score draw, which is helpful to Miliband. But it's interesting to see the advantages and drawbacks of the interview format vs a debate.

    On the positive side, it made the discussion overwhelmingly positive or at least focused on the interviewee - what would you do and what did you get wrong, rather than why is the other lot rubbish. The few attempts to attack the other side were swiftly squashed or passed over. On the whole, I think the casual viewer would have drawn a somewhat more positive view of both of them.

    On the downside, neither of them got a real opportunity to develop a theme, since it was dictated entirely by the questions. DavidL would have liked to hear more from Miliband about what he wants to do, but he was asked very little about that - the questions were mostly about past record, relations with his brother, and so on. In the same way, Cameron was pressed on food banks, NHS failings, and so on other perceived problems. Purely from the viewpoint of information, I think a mix of the debate format with 10 minutes to speak freely would be what works best.

    Score draw.

    The ICM figures were 54-46 to Cameron.

    Have you become a ScotNat now Nick ?
    Classic BBC on R4 today from Norman Smith "Despite the post debate polls showing a win for Mr Cameron, it may be Mr Milibands team who are the happier this morning..."

    The segment on spending was poison for Ed - he needs better answer fast.
    Depends, his argument is effectively "we spent on the wrong things" - most interviewers will allow the politician to reframe the question, Paxman didn't and that was what got Ed in trouble
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    RE Today's YG:

    E&W only gives Cons 39; LAB 34, LD 6; UKIP 14; Green 5

    The LD 2010 VI show 24% going to both Cons and LAB. Cons having been narrowing this gap recently, but this looks like an outlier.

    SNP have another low margin over LAB - 9%

    Approval keeping at the new lower range - at -12.

    Just 45% of LAB VI think it is led by people of real ability.



  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Incidentally, P1 and P2 are done.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/2015/malaysian-grand-prix/results/practice

    Surprised Raikkonen was faster than Vettel and Ericsson than Nasr. Nice to see Manor Marussia show up, although they're 3s off the McLaren...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Yougov are downweighting the SNP/PC "identifiers" though, also they are taking 5% of the Labour vote in the crosstab !
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    I’m still amazed at Dave’s extraordinary comment that the rise in foodbank use is because Job Centres now tell people about them!

    Part of the rise is the delay in getting benefits when people do sign on or their work circumstances change, partly because many of these are paid monthly deliberately to force people to budget.

    Failed asylum seekers and those who have not complied with requirements for other benefits (such as evidence of job seeking) also have nowhere else to go.

    Actual benefits levels are largely unchanged, indeed ascmost are CPI linked they have outpaced earnings over the last 5 years. What has happened is that the barriers have gone up making them harder to access.

    Which leaves the obvious question: What would Miliband do about this? Allow people benefits even if they do not seek work? Have an ambesty for failed asylum seekers?

    Miliband is not wrong on analysis, just incapable of solutions.

    I see your Trust made headlines yesterday by paying over £1400 for a single nurse shift.

    Presumably the person concerned was only partially motivated by money.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,142
    edited March 2015



    Miliband is not wrong on analysis, just incapable of solutions.

    If I were Crosby, I'd be trying to get this theme accepted by the left-leaning but sensible media - parts of it are already heading that way.

    Would keep my left-leaning friends at home, or perhaps encourage them to vote Green, because it resonates with preconceptions. 'Oh ok then, another Tory government - lets fix the roof, but next time we'll find someone who knows how to solve problems and lead'
  • FalseFlag said:

    Labour will make important gains in London in the general election, according to a special Guardian/ICM telephone poll which shows the party winning several seats in the capital.

    The party is set to advance by 5 percentage points from its previous general election performance to reach 42% – and is a full 10 points ahead of the Tories, who fall back 3 points from their 2010 result to land at 32%.

    On a uniform swing, these numbers would deliver eight gains for Labour, mostly in the west of the city – where Brentford and Isleworth, Ealing Central and Acton, and Harrow East would all be picked up from the Tories.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/27/london-labour-gains-general-election-poll

    I can believe it. London is a very different city, now.

    Indeed - Labour used to do much better in London (50% of the vote in 97). I blame all the immigrants.

    Long-term London is trending heavily to Labour. We both know the Tories have a problem in attracting votes from immigrants, except in Harrow which bucks the trend.
    Increasing numbers of white people switching Conservative are offsetting this, for the time being.
    This goes to the heart of the issue. Two generations ago, people voted on class lines and the parties' policies reflected this, e.g. the Tories' promise, in the 1950s, to build more Council houses than Labour.

    Nowadays we are about halfway towards the shift to identity politics (e.g. Israel, much of the USA) and this is what is producing the confusion for both voters and political professionals of all types. Not to mention punters!

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    The contrast between the interview and the public questions is interesting. In the latter they were able to simply reel off prepared responses, but in the former Paxman did his best to make sure that they answered the question instead.

    I tend to think that Question Time is something of a hybrid. The initial questions come from the audience, but Dimbleby normally asks follow-up questions and tries to ensure the politicians don't obfuscate too much. So I think there's definite potential for either of Cameron, Miliband (or Clegg or Farage) to stumble in the April 30th setpiece.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    surbiton said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCNormanS: Ed Miliband clinging to the pretence he has a chance of winning a majority says @NicolaSturgeon @BBCr4today

    @BBCNormanS: Scotland First Minister @NicolaSturgeon predicts many Labour MPs will back SNP over anti austerity and Trident @bbcr4today

    @BBCNormanS: 4 out of 5 Labour candidates back @theSNP over opposing Trident says @NicolaSturgeon @BBCr4today

    Nicola v Ed could be entertaining

    Actually stopping [ or "postponing" ] Trident and a re-look at HS2 can get rid of austerity altogether. Spend the money where it is needed.
    These are largely capital projects. If you cancel them they wont change the deficit. The deficit comes from day to day spending, the recurring running costs of the trident replacement are about £2 billion a year. Total and utter peanuts in the scheme of public spending.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,803
    surbiton said:

    Gadfly said:

    Labour will make important gains in London in the general election, according to a special Guardian/ICM telephone poll which shows the party winning several seats in the capital.

    The party is set to advance by 5 percentage points from its previous general election performance to reach 42% – and is a full 10 points ahead of the Tories, who fall back 3 points from their 2010 result to land at 32%.

    On a uniform swing, these numbers would deliver eight gains for Labour, mostly in the west of the city – where Brentford and Isleworth, Ealing Central and Acton, and Harrow East would all be picked up from the Tories.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/27/london-labour-gains-general-election-poll

    I can believe it. London is a very different city, now.

    I blame all the immigrants.
    Bloody foreigners - coming over here, and paying our taxes :-)
    It's worse that that - coming over here, doing the work we would not do and then paying their taxes :-)
    Are you admitting to being a layabout who doesn't want to work and prefers to spend all day on the internet ?

    Or are you saying your business doesn't pay a living wage ?

    Or maybe you're making a racist comment that British people (many of whom near you are the children or grandchildren of earlier immigrants) are fundamentally idle ?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,975
    OT. Lufthansa. A terrible tradgedy for the passengers but also for Lufthansa. I shot a commercial for them in the late 90's at Munich airport and they were as nice a client as you could work for. I put my lights too close to the windows and popped several of the perspex windows. They later replaced all the windows on the plane at great expense and made no complaint at all.
  • Score draw, which is helpful to Miliband. But it's interesting to see the advantages and drawbacks of the interview format vs a debate.
    .....

    From the Black Knight "mere flesh wound" view of life.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Freggles said:

    TGOHF said:

    Score draw, which is helpful to Miliband. But it's interesting to see the advantages and drawbacks of the interview format vs a debate.

    On the positive side, it made the discussion overwhelmingly positive or at least focused on the interviewee - what would you do and what did you get wrong, rather than why is the other lot rubbish. The few attempts to attack the other side were swiftly squashed or passed over. On the whole, I think the casual viewer would have drawn a somewhat more positive view of both of them.

    On the downside, neither of them got a real opportunity to develop a theme, since it was dictated entirely by the questions. DavidL would have liked to hear more from Miliband about what he wants to do, but he was asked very little about that - the questions were mostly about past record, relations with his brother, and so on. In the same way, Cameron was pressed on food banks, NHS failings, and so on other perceived problems. Purely from the viewpoint of information, I think a mix of the debate format with 10 minutes to speak freely would be what works best.

    Score draw.

    The ICM figures were 54-46 to Cameron.

    Have you become a ScotNat now Nick ?
    Classic BBC on R4 today from Norman Smith "Despite the post debate polls showing a win for Mr Cameron, it may be Mr Milibands team who are the happier this morning..."

    The segment on spending was poison for Ed - he needs better answer fast.
    Depends, his argument is effectively "we spent on the wrong things" - most interviewers will allow the politician to reframe the question, Paxman didn't and that was what got Ed in trouble
    More telling was "I chose my party over my family". Not chose serving his country - but his party - ugh.

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,803
    Pulpstar said:

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    Still puzzled where does the Sporting Index punters think the UKIP seats are coming from ? Solid performance from Ed last night ! Dave, as shifty as ever !

    You keep saying this, have you sold Ukip seats or taken the equivalent bet in fixed odds form?
    Why don't you answer the main question ? Where are these 6 - 8 seats ? I can be sure of only one.
    There don't have to be 6-8 seats, there is a body of 3-4 UKIP seats and then alot of potential gains on a good night.

    The body is

    Clacton; Thurrock; Thanet South

    And then on a good night

    Rochester is held, Castle point taken; Great Grimsby, Basildon, Dudley North, Walsall South.
    ....
    Rotherham, Rother Valley, Penistone, Cleethorpes, Boston.

    AndyJS thinks UKIP can win Cannock.

    Like with the LibDems previously there's likely to be some shock UKIP gains while more obvious targets are missed.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    F1: 80-90% chance of a thunderstorm during qualifying.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited March 2015
    I am still stunned over the Bercow matter and the ineptitude of Cameron and his people's handling of the Conservative MPs. Maybe it is better for the party (and in 5 years time the country) that he and Osborne are removed following loss of office than to stagger on in office losing touch with the party that they lead. Twould have been better that Major had lost in 92.
  • surbiton said:

    Gadfly said:

    Labour will make important gains in London in the general election, according to a special Guardian/ICM telephone poll which shows the party winning several seats in the capital.

    The party is set to advance by 5 percentage points from its previous general election performance to reach 42% – and is a full 10 points ahead of the Tories, who fall back 3 points from their 2010 result to land at 32%.

    On a uniform swing, these numbers would deliver eight gains for Labour, mostly in the west of the city – where Brentford and Isleworth, Ealing Central and Acton, and Harrow East would all be picked up from the Tories.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/27/london-labour-gains-general-election-poll

    I can believe it. London is a very different city, now.

    I blame all the immigrants.
    Bloody foreigners - coming over here, and paying our taxes :-)
    It's worse that that - coming over here, doing the work we would not do and then paying their taxes :-)
    Are you admitting to being a layabout who doesn't want to work and prefers to spend all day on the internet ?

    Or are you saying your business doesn't pay a living wage ?

    Or maybe you're making a racist comment that British people (many of whom near you are the children or grandchildren of earlier immigrants) are fundamentally idle ?
    First-generation immigrants, in any country and of any race, are less idle than their offspring. They are, after all, a self-selected highly motivated group whose energy is diluted, over the generations, by intermarriage with the locals. Ask the Normans and Saxons! (Or even the Jews, who thwarted the process by ghettoization.)

  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    edited March 2015
    Roger..Popped the windows on a plane... you should have used a Director of Photography
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469

    Labour will make important gains in London in the general election, according to a special Guardian/ICM telephone poll which shows the party winning several seats in the capital.

    The party is set to advance by 5 percentage points from its previous general election performance to reach 42% – and is a full 10 points ahead of the Tories, who fall back 3 points from their 2010 result to land at 32%.

    On a uniform swing, these numbers would deliver eight gains for Labour, mostly in the west of the city – where Brentford and Isleworth, Ealing Central and Acton, and Harrow East would all be picked up from the Tories.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/27/london-labour-gains-general-election-poll

    I can believe it. London is a very different city, now.

    Indeed - Labour used to do much better in London (50% of the vote in 97). I blame all the immigrants.

    Long-term London is trending heavily to Labour. We both know the Tories have a problem in attracting votes from immigrants, except in Harrow which bucks the trend.
    Labour are better organised in London tha anywhere else in the country this time around. They have attracted a large number of new members a lot of whom are activists on the street.
    I was chatting to one of their party organisers a couple of days ago about Southwark where they are going all out to unseat Simon Hughes. He described the campaigning as being like "the battle of Stalingrad" with both sides going house to house eking out every single vote. That will be one to watch for on May 8th
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,803

    FalseFlag said:

    Labour will make important gains in London in the general election, according to a special Guardian/ICM telephone poll which shows the party winning several seats in the capital.

    The party is set to advance by 5 percentage points from its previous general election performance to reach 42% – and is a full 10 points ahead of the Tories, who fall back 3 points from their 2010 result to land at 32%.

    On a uniform swing, these numbers would deliver eight gains for Labour, mostly in the west of the city – where Brentford and Isleworth, Ealing Central and Acton, and Harrow East would all be picked up from the Tories.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/27/london-labour-gains-general-election-poll

    I can believe it. London is a very different city, now.

    Indeed - Labour used to do much better in London (50% of the vote in 97). I blame all the immigrants.

    Long-term London is trending heavily to Labour. We both know the Tories have a problem in attracting votes from immigrants, except in Harrow which bucks the trend.
    Increasing numbers of white people switching Conservative are offsetting this, for the time being.
    This goes to the heart of the issue. Two generations ago, people voted on class lines and the parties' policies reflected this, e.g. the Tories' promise, in the 1950s, to build more Council houses than Labour.

    Nowadays we are about halfway towards the shift to identity politics (e.g. Israel, much of the USA) and this is what is producing the confusion for both voters and political professionals of all types. Not to mention punters!

    Indeed.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    Financier said:

    RE Today's YG:

    E&W only gives Cons 39; LAB 34, LD 6; UKIP 14; Green 5

    The LD 2010 VI show 24% going to both Cons and LAB. Cons having been narrowing this gap recently, but this looks like an outlier.

    SNP have another low margin over LAB - 9%

    Approval keeping at the new lower range - at -12.

    Just 45% of LAB VI think it is led by people of real ability.



    The E & W numbers would result in 33 switches from Con to Lab. Assuming 12 Con gains from Lib Dems, that would leave the Conservatives as the largest party, but short of what they'd need to govern.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,706
    Financier said:

    RE Today's YG:

    E&W only gives Cons 39; LAB 34, LD 6; UKIP 14; Green 5

    The LD 2010 VI show 24% going to both Cons and LAB. Cons having been narrowing this gap recently, but this looks like an outlier.

    SNP have another low margin over LAB - 9%

    Approval keeping at the new lower range - at -12.

    Just 45% of LAB VI think it is led by people of real ability.



    Tories very close to 2010GE vote share in England there. Looks like it may come down to whether the new legions of voters actually do turnout for Labour.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,975
    Doddy

    "Roger..Popped the windows on a plane... you should have used a Director of Photography"

    I do my own lighting. It's my speciality! Do you know the technical difference between a cameraman and a DOP?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    If Ed had won the ICM poll by the same margin would the BBC have said there was a clear winner ?

    Rhetorical question.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Did anyone notice a possible sleight of hand by Miliband last night, in his promise to control "the deficit". He talked about the £75 billion deficit (its not, it is £91 billion), it seems strange that he would want to downplay the government's inability to get it down quick enough.

    It's because him and Balls have thought up a new wheeze, which the mainstream commentators seem to have let slide. The 'deficit' he is referring to is not the 'deficit' that we know, but something called the "current account deficit".

    http://www.adamsmith.org/research/think-pieces/should-we-be-concerned-about-the-uks-current-account-deficit/

    It might not be sleight of hand, maybe just using a simpler message to distinguish between capital spending and recurring spending. But I'm suspicious of the repeated use of "current account deficit".
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited March 2015
    timmo said:



    unseat Simon Hughes. He described the campaigning as being like "the battle of Stalingrad"

    If I remember my history , the defenders won at Stalingrad which precipitated a rout for the attackers causing them to lose the entire war..


  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    "This goes to the heart of the issue. Two generations ago, people voted on class lines and the parties' policies reflected this, e.g. the Tories' promise, in the 1950s, to build more Council houses than Labour. "

    Bring back Harold Macmillan!

    Talk but no real action since this report

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affordability_of_housing_in_the_United_Kingdom
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    TGOHF said:

    If Ed had won the ICM poll by the same margin would the BBC have said there was a clear winner ?

    Rhetorical question.

    A lead of 54/46 among a Labour-leaning sample seems pretty good for Cameron, in my view.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    TGOHF said:

    Freggles said:

    TGOHF said:

    Score draw, which is helpful to Miliband. But it's interesting to see the advantages and drawbacks of the interview format vs a debate.

    On the positive side, it made the discussion overwhelmingly positive or at least focused on the interviewee - what would you do and what did you get wrong, rather than why is the other lot rubbish. The few attempts to attack the other side were swiftly squashed or passed over. On the whole, I think the casual viewer would have drawn a somewhat more positive view of both of them.

    On the downside, neither of them got a real opportunity to develop a theme, since it was dictated entirely by the questions. DavidL would have liked to hear more from Miliband about what he wants to do, but he was asked very little about that - the questions were mostly about past record, relations with his brother, and so on. In the same way, Cameron was pressed on food banks, NHS failings, and so on other perceived problems. Purely from the viewpoint of information, I think a mix of the debate format with 10 minutes to speak freely would be what works best.

    Score draw.

    The ICM figures were 54-46 to Cameron.

    Have you become a ScotNat now Nick ?
    Classic BBC on R4 today from Norman Smith "Despite the post debate polls showing a win for Mr Cameron, it may be Mr Milibands team who are the happier this morning..."

    The segment on spending was poison for Ed - he needs better answer fast.
    Depends, his argument is effectively "we spent on the wrong things" - most interviewers will allow the politician to reframe the question, Paxman didn't and that was what got Ed in trouble
    More telling was "I chose my party over my family". Not chose serving his country - but his party - ugh.

    As someone, unfairly, tweeted in response: "that's how we got death camps".
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    edited March 2015

    I am still stunned over the Bercow matter and the ineptitude of Cameron and his people's handling of the Conservative MPs. Maybe it is better for the party (and in 5 years time the country) that he and Osborne are removed following loss of office than to stagger on in office losing touch with the party that they lead. Twould have been better that Major had lost in 92.

    Er, you mean the 23 - and pretty well the entireity of the bad, mad and dispossessed - out of a Parliamentary party of 304? As DavidL commented yesterday it is the thought that a Tory Government might have to rely on this unlovely crew for 'support' were it to gain a majority, that fills many of us with a sense of deep foreboding.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,132
    TGOHF said:

    Freggles said:

    TGOHF said:

    Score draw, which is helpful to Miliband. But it's interesting to see the advantages and drawbacks of the interview format vs a debate.

    On the positive side, it made the discussion overwhelmingly positive or at least focused on the interviewee - what would you do and what did you get wrong, rather than why is the other lot rubbish. The few attempts to attack the other side were swiftly squashed or passed over. On the whole, I think the casual viewer would have drawn a somewhat more positive view of both of them.

    On the downside, neither of them got a real opportunity to develop a theme, since it was dictated entirely by the questions. DavidL would have liked to hear more from Miliband about what he wants to do, but he was asked very little about that - the questions were mostly about past record, relations with his brother, and so on. In the same way, Cameron was pressed on food banks, NHS failings, and so on other perceived problems. Purely from the viewpoint of information, I think a mix of the debate format with 10 minutes to speak freely would be what works best.

    Score draw.

    The ICM figures were 54-46 to Cameron.

    Have you become a ScotNat now Nick ?
    Classic BBC on R4 today from Norman Smith "Despite the post debate polls showing a win for Mr Cameron, it may be Mr Milibands team who are the happier this morning..."

    The segment on spending was poison for Ed - he needs better answer fast.
    Depends, his argument is effectively "we spent on the wrong things" - most interviewers will allow the politician to reframe the question, Paxman didn't and that was what got Ed in trouble
    More telling was "I chose my party over my family". Not chose serving his country - but his party - ugh.

    I am no Ed fan, not by a long chalk. But I actually thought he nailed it last night. He was easily the better of the two - animated and interested. Just goes to show how subjective all this is.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    I’m still amazed at Dave’s extraordinary comment that the rise in foodbank use is because Job Centres now tell people about them!

    Part of the rise is the delay in getting benefits when people do sign on or their work circumstances change, partly because many of these are paid monthly deliberately to force people to budget.

    Failed asylum seekers and those who have not complied with requirements for other benefits (such as evidence of job seeking) also have nowhere else to go.

    Actual benefits levels are largely unchanged, indeed ascmost are CPI linked they have outpaced earnings over the last 5 years. What has happened is that the barriers have gone up making them harder to access.

    Which leaves the obvious question: What would Miliband do about this? Allow people benefits even if they do not seek work? Have an ambesty for failed asylum seekers?

    Miliband is not wrong on analysis, just incapable of solutions.
    There have been a couple of years when benefit increases were limited to 1%. I don't know how they compare to average wages over the course of the Parliament though. Something to dig up from the ONS data at some point.

    The glaring omission from your post is any mention of benefit sanctions. People are having their benefits stopped for a variety of piddling bureaucratic reasons, or catch-22 situations where they are set up to fail (such as having to choose between job interviews and job centre appointments). It is mean, vindictive and inhumane. The increase in benefit sanctions (which were introduced by Labour) is directly linked to the increased use of food banks.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,132
    Although debates completely wiped off front page by news of the aircrash.

    Anyone seen any viewing figures for Paxo 'debate'?
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    "This goes to the heart of the issue. Two generations ago, people voted on class lines and the parties' policies reflected this, e.g. the Tories' promise, in the 1950s, to build more Council houses than Labour. "

    Bring back Harold Macmillan!

    Talk but no real action since this report

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affordability_of_housing_in_the_United_Kingdom

    Council housing is a nightmare. Councils do not make good landlords, and the whole thing is a gigantic expensive mess. The cost of housing benefit is only a part of the cost of running social housing for the taxpayer.

    I dont really have a problem with a significant increase in social housing, but the model should be self funding (outside the capital costs). The rents should be market set, the only real difference would be the tenure. Private rentals leave very little security for people to put down roots.
  • JohnO said:

    I am still stunned over the Bercow matter and the ineptitude of Cameron and his people's handling of the Conservative MPs. Maybe it is better for the party (and in 5 years time the country) that he and Osborne are removed following loss of office than to stagger on in office losing touch with the party that they lead. Twould have been better that Major had lost in 92.

    Er, you mean the 23 - and pretty well the entireity of the bad, mad and dispossessed - out of a Parliamentary party of 304? As DavidL commented yesterday it is the thought that a Tory Government might have to rely on this unlovely crew for 'support' were it to gain a majority, that fills many of us with a sense of deep foreboding.
    I admired your restraint in your description of David Davis yesterday, I would have used stronger language.
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