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  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Some points to consider, Fisher's analysis is deeply flawed and should be ignored. Secondly, the fact that Tory activists were pretending to be SNP is scraping the barrel in terms of honour.The shabby treatment of Bercow was another example of Tory low and base principles. Who won the discussion is not as important as retaining a sound moral perspective.

    That's funny, since I find your analysis deeply flawed and ignorable too.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited March 2015
    dr_spyn said:

    The stuff about Miliband being attacked and punched by six people with Alex Salmond masks, doesn't make sense or at least The Mirror's account begs a few questions.

    "Labour activist Rachel Penn, 42, said: "He was pretty shaken up. It was quite dramatic.

    "His path was blocked by two people who were being very aggressive. He was shoved out of the way and couldn't get in the car. "One guy punched Ed in the chest and shut the car door so he couldn't get in."

    Labour supporter Neil McEwan said: "The group came out of nowhere. Ed only had four of five steps to get to the car but they set upon him immediately. "He was definitely pushed but he shrugged it off and made his way to the far side of the car.

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/ed-miliband-punched-shoved-protesters-5409428

    So his minders were looking out for trouble, looking the other way, incapable of organising a piss up in a brewery? Must have been about as competent as Franz Ferdinand's security team.

    No photographs taken by witnesses or minders, waiting driver hadn't noticed people in Alex Salmond masks?

    It does smell a bit 'whiffy'. Camera phones are everywhere - it's very hard to believe no one got a photo.

    Miliband has Special Branch minders - and they don't mess around.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Conservative majority looks high to me at 7.8 right now.

    I am trying to back the 8.0 :-) Please feel free to accommodate me...
    Hah So it was your £300 in at that price :P

    The 7.8 is selling fast by the way, will be lay price soon.
    Yep, all gone now. Will leave the 8.0 anyhow and probably get matched there - I'd laid the 1.22 NOM to free up the funds...
    My Betfair book is completely underwater unfortunately as I've got NOM bets on with Laddies ;p
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Great fishing from Rose, to be fair, four bites in 20 seconds....
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    John Plunkett tells me that around 300 people have now complained to Channel 4 about alleged bias in the questioning of David Cameron and Ed Miliband by Jeremy Paxman and Kay Burley last night. That is on top of the 110 complaints to Ofcom (see 10.58am), taking the total number of complaints to more than 400. We are still waiting to hear about complaints to Sky.
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2015/mar/27/election-2015-cameron-beats-miliband-first-leaders-interviews-reaction
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Some points to consider, Fisher's analysis is deeply flawed and should be ignored. Secondly, the fact that Tory activists were pretending to be SNP is scraping the barrel in terms of honour.The shabby treatment of Bercow was another example of Tory low and base principles. Who won the discussion is not as important as retaining a sound moral perspective.

    That's funny, since I find your analysis deeply flawed and ignorable too.
    You flatter @roserees64.

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Great fishing from Rose, to be fair, four bites in 20 seconds....

    There was a time when spoof posters tried to be funny. Ah, the good old days.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    JackW said:

    Some points to consider, Fisher's analysis is deeply flawed and should be ignored.

    Please explain.

    I suppose the problem of Fisher is that it is cast into the shade by your ARSE.

    Indeed Fisher seems to be getting suspiciously close to it...
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    @PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 33 (-), Con 31 (-), LD 9 (-), UKIP 16 (-), Greens 5 (-), Others 6 (-). Tables here: http://t.co/7XhlYV48U6

    Online pollster with lots of extra Tory/UKIP switchers. Same pattern as Survation and Comres online.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Disgrace that Miliband was attacked. With that, the attack on Galloway, and the vile behaviour towards Farage, it seems politics is becoming uglier.

    The big problem with this (on top of physical assault being unacceptable in itself) is that it makes politicians even less inclined to meet ordinary people in uncontrolled environments, because doing so not only puts them at risk of facing embarrassing questions, but now also of being assaulted by their political opponents. Also means that politics is likely to become even more the preserve of weirdos who either find such tactics acceptable or tolerable.
    Its not just the assaults, but also the chicken suits, Salmond masks etc.

    Amusing if done once. Not after that.
    I think it definitely starts with those sorts of stunts, and then ratchets up, bit by bit. Political parties shouldn't be setting out to disrupt each other's campaigning events.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited March 2015
    The main potential flaw in fishers model, IMO, is the reliance on the ashcroft constituency data.

    If the ashcroft polls have some sort of systemic bias, then the whole projection gets skewed.

    It'll be interesting doing the post mortem on these models after the election
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    This sounds sensible?

    "Miliband also announced that a Labour government will try to stop cherry picking of profitable contracts by “developing a more cost reflective tariff system to ensure that the prices paid better reflect patient complexity”. The aim will be to stop providers getting over reimbursed if they only treat simple cases and ensure that NHS hospitals who have to treat all cases are not short changed. "

    The devil is in the detail....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,970
    edited March 2015
    YouGov

    The BBC have announced that Jeremy Clarkson’s contract for Top Gear will not be renewed, and that the programme will continue with a different presenter. Do you think this is the right or wrong decision by the BBC?

    Right decision 59%

    Wrong decision 29%

    DK 12%

    Interesting that only Kippers had more saying it was a wrong decision than the right one.

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/w1a6oa7r9j/InternalResults_150326_Top_Gear_Website.pdf

  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Aren't the Ashcroft's based on Populus' telephone methodology?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    Sorry if been posted, but what were the estimates of viewing figures for last night?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    I rather like the more general suggestion that Speakers should be elected at the start of a Parliament for one Parliament only [with a peerage at the end of it]. Exceptions could perhaps be made for Parliaments lasting fewer than 2 years.

    You're more likely to get government stooges that way. The Commons does need a Speaker who will stand up to the executive.
    Why would someone who is compelled to retire be anyone's stooge?
    My thinking was that by having the election always happen at a time when Parliament is full of fresh-faced new MPs on the government benches you make it more likely that the favoured candidate of the executive will be elected.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Sorry if been posted, but what were the estimates of viewing figures for last night?

    Last night’s leader interviews had another 322,000 viewers on Sky News (which simulcast it with Channel 4) giving it a combined audience including C4 of nearly 3m, a big hit for both.

    Channel 4 peaked with 3m viewers, Sky with 371,000, way up on the news channel’s average ratings.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    surbiton said:

    FalseFlag said:

    Gadfly said:

    Labour will make important gains in London in the general election, according to a special Guardian/ICM telephone poll which shows the party winning several seats in the capital.

    The party is set to advance by 5 percentage points from its previous general election performance to reach 42% – and is a full 10 points ahead of the Tories, who fall back 3 points from their 2010 result to land at 32%.

    On a uniform swing, these numbers would deliver eight gains for Labour, mostly in the west of the city – where Brentford and Isleworth, Ealing Central and Acton, and Harrow East would all be picked up from the Tories.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/27/london-labour-gains-general-election-poll

    I can believe it. London is a very different city, now.

    I blame all the immigrants.
    Bloody foreigners - coming over here, and paying our taxes :-)
    They don't though, they are massive economic burden, even before we consider social costs.
    Demography, dear boy, demography ! Who will pay the taxes to fund the cost our aging population ?

    So as each generation ages we import even more people?

    you forgot to ask who pays the taxes to ensure our infrastructure can cope, you know little things like education, health , transportation and water for example

    Typical Labour economic madness.

    Where does it end?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    I rather like the more general suggestion that Speakers should be elected at the start of a Parliament for one Parliament only [with a peerage at the end of it]. Exceptions could perhaps be made for Parliaments lasting fewer than 2 years.

    You're more likely to get government stooges that way. The Commons does need a Speaker who will stand up to the executive.
    Why would someone who is compelled to retire be anyone's stooge?
    My thinking was that by having the election always happen at a time when Parliament is full of fresh-faced new MPs on the government benches you make it more likely that the favoured candidate of the executive will be elected.
    There may be something in that. Though I would want a secret ballot too as part of the reforms.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    edited March 2015
    Mr. Floater, with a collapsed pyramid scheme.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited March 2015

    YouGov

    The BBC have announced that Jeremy Clarkson’s contract for Top Gear will not be renewed, and that the programme will continue with a different presenter. Do you think this is the right or wrong decision by the BBC?

    Right decision 59%

    Wrong decision 29%

    DK 12%

    Interesting that only Kippers had more saying it was a wrong decision than the right one.

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/w1a6oa7r9j/InternalResults_150326_Top_Gear_Website.pdf

    They didn't break that down by people who had watched the show in the last 12 months.

    The point about the Kippers is particularly interesting, because older respondents were more supportive of the BBCs decision, and we normally think of Kippers as being older.

    So on this question Kippers really contrast strongly with their peer group.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    Sorry if been posted, but what were the estimates of viewing figures for last night?

    2.41m.

    Beaten by The Truth About Calories, and just under 12% of people watching TV at that time.
  • frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    dr_spyn said:

    timmo said:

    dr_spyn said:

    ITV News ‏@itvnews 4s5 seconds ago
    North Yorkshire Police say they are still looking into the assault of a Top Gear producer by Jeremy Clarkson http://www.itv.com/news/story/2015-03-27/jeremy-clarkson-producer-will-not-press-charges-over-fracas/

    Im hearing from a source at the Beeb that he broke the blokes nose..
    So why not press charges if that is the case?

    To be fair to the police, they are being much more careful and open these days. Perhaps they could not collect enough evidence to prove that Clarkson actually voted Conservative.

  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    edited March 2015
    MikeK said:

    dr_spyn said:

    ITV News ‏@itvnews 4s5 seconds ago
    North Yorkshire Police say they are still looking into the assault of a Top Gear producer by Jeremy Clarkson http://www.itv.com/news/story/2015-03-27/jeremy-clarkson-producer-will-not-press-charges-over-fracas/

    Easy peasy for NYP. Haven't they got enough to do with really bad crime, like 1400 young girls groomed and raped by muslims? No, I guess not a top priority. :(
    Mike I think you need to look at a map and and be making apologies to NYP.
    It covers a large geographical area mainly rural, with an elected Conservative PCC.
    The largest cities, towns in its jurisdiction are York, Harrogate Scarborough and Northallerton.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Floater
    We could try the old system? If you are poor then you work till you drop.
    It is a well tested and cheap solution.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    Disgrace that Miliband was attacked. With that, the attack on Galloway, and the vile behaviour towards Farage, it seems politics is becoming uglier.

    The big problem with this (on top of physical assault being unacceptable in itself) is that it makes politicians even less inclined to meet ordinary people in uncontrolled environments, because doing so not only puts them at risk of facing embarrassing questions, but now also of being assaulted by their political opponents. Also means that politics is likely to become even more the preserve of weirdos who either find such tactics acceptable or tolerable.
    Its not just the assaults, but also the chicken suits, Salmond masks etc.

    Amusing if done once. Not after that.
    I think it definitely starts with those sorts of stunts, and then ratchets up, bit by bit. Political parties shouldn't be setting out to disrupt each other's campaigning events.
    Nah, an Evostick following Murphy, Chicken following Dave or bacon Sandwich costume following Ed (When they are out campaigning) would be OK but assaults are a different matter, as are interrupting family meals.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,717

    I rather like the more general suggestion that Speakers should be elected at the start of a Parliament for one Parliament only [with a peerage at the end of it]. Exceptions could perhaps be made for Parliaments lasting fewer than 2 years.

    You're more likely to get government stooges that way. The Commons does need a Speaker who will stand up to the executive.
    Why would someone who is compelled to retire be anyone's stooge?
    My thinking was that by having the election always happen at a time when Parliament is full of fresh-faced new MPs on the government benches you make it more likely that the favoured candidate of the executive will be elected.
    There may be something in that. Though I would want a secret ballot too as part of the reforms.
    How many new MP’s are there after each election? I get an impression of normally not many. 1997 was exceptional.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    Some points to consider, Fisher's analysis is deeply flawed and should be ignored.

    Please explain.

    I suppose the problem of Fisher is that it is cast into the shade by your ARSE.

    Indeed Fisher seems to be getting suspiciously close to it...
    Indeed.

    My mighty ARSE dominates the field of play and as is usually the case the pale imitations eventually come within its sphere of influence.

    Twas ever thus.

  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Pulpstar
    The problem seems to be people, wanting to be famous for five minutes, rather than making a point.
    Most will only have a loose affiliation to any party these days.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    Mr. K, point of order: that's South Yorkshire you're thinking of.

    That said, if the producer doesn't want to press charges, I would've thought that would be that.

    Edited extra bit: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iLRna0RRvxo

    They will go for 'causing affray' or some such which I don't think requires a complaint to be made, but I may be wrong!
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    The only truly shocking revelation to come out of the whole Jeremy Clarkson affair was that James May’s fashion tastes, are even worse off air than they are on. – But, I forgive him. :)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    MikeK said:

    dr_spyn said:

    ITV News ‏@itvnews 4s5 seconds ago
    North Yorkshire Police say they are still looking into the assault of a Top Gear producer by Jeremy Clarkson http://www.itv.com/news/story/2015-03-27/jeremy-clarkson-producer-will-not-press-charges-over-fracas/

    Easy peasy for NYP. Haven't they got enough to do with really bad crime, like 1400 young girls groomed and raped by muslims? No, I guess not a top priority. :(
    How's life in Watford these days ?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited March 2015
    chestnut said:

    Sorry if been posted, but what were the estimates of viewing figures for last night?

    2.41m.

    Beaten by The Truth About Calories, and just under 12% of people watching TV at that time.
    Be Jesus, so nobody basically outside hardcore anoraks. Doesn't a normal QT on BBC1 get more than that?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @tnewtondunn: The Labour Party refused to invite certain newspapers to its election campaign launch today. Last time this happened was under Kinnock.

    Get your light-bulbs...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,378
    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: The Labour Party refused to invite certain newspapers to its election campaign launch today. Last time this happened was under Kinnock.

    Get your light-bulbs...

    Er, what do light-bulbs have to do with it, please?

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,540
    edited March 2015

    Good news for the Blues from Prof. Stephen Fisher this morning!
    With his imput data showing the Tories 2% ahead of Labour on 34% compared with 32%, there is a corresponding shift in his updated projection of GE seats.
    The Tories are shown as winning 296 seats (+12 compared with last week), Labour are on 261 (-17) with the LibDems unchanged on 21 seats.
    The SNP are on a new high of 47 seats with UKIP on 5, Plaid on 3 and the Greens holding onto their one existing seat.
    The Tories are givrn a 74% chance of winning the most seats and a 16% chance of achieving an overall majority, where he gives Labour only a 1% chance!
    Stand by for a significant shift in the betting odds.

    I think the Tories are heading for a vote share of 35-36%. I intend to crunch some numbers at the weekend, but am working off Con - 36% and Lab - 32%.

    The top end polling numbers for the Tories (and we've had a few 36%'s now) have historically tended to be the most accurate.
    Populus still pulls the Conservative average down a bit. Probably because of the high numbers it gives to UKIP.

    A simple average of polls from Monday onwards has Labour 33.8%, Conservative 33.5%, UKIP 13.6%.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    Carnyx said:

    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: The Labour Party refused to invite certain newspapers to its election campaign launch today. Last time this happened was under Kinnock.

    Get your light-bulbs...

    Er, what do light-bulbs have to do with it, please?

    http://www.classicheadlines.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/Kinnock-lightbulb.jog_.jpg
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: The Labour Party refused to invite certain newspapers to its election campaign launch today. Last time this happened was under Kinnock.

    Get your light-bulbs...

    Je ne suis pas Charlie.
  • Carnyx said:

    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: The Labour Party refused to invite certain newspapers to its election campaign launch today. Last time this happened was under Kinnock.

    Get your light-bulbs...

    Er, what do light-bulbs have to do with it, please?

    The Sun front page on the day of 1992 General Election

    http://www.classicheadlines.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/Kinnock-lightbulb.jog_.jpg
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited March 2015
    Carnyx said:

    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: The Labour Party refused to invite certain newspapers to its election campaign launch today. Last time this happened was under Kinnock.

    Get your light-bulbs...

    Er, what do light-bulbs have to do with it, please?

    'Will the last one to leave the country please turn off the light' with a picture of a light bulb.

    Quote from the Sun front page, election day ??? Foot or Kinnock, can't remember which
  • Ed Miliband has just said that any private company undertaking NHS operations will be restricted to 5% profit. How will he make up the lost capacity when these companies walk away
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited March 2015

    Ed Miliband has just said that any private company undertaking NHS operations will be restricted to 5% profit. How will he make up the lost capacity when these companies walk away

    Gross or Net?

    Indeed that would create a hole, and how will he work it out?

    In addition, do you want the bean counter standing by the side of your hospital bed saying 'We can't do that, do this instead Doctor. We have to hit our 5% profit target.'
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    Good afternoon, comrades and capitalist pigdogs (your milk round will soon be at an end!).

    In order to better facilitate accurate and truthful conveyance of news, Chairman Miliband has wisely selected the most insightful journalists to report upon his prudent utterances.

    Those journalists deemed unworthy of entering the Chairman's presence are strongly advised to recant of their depraved rightwing degeneracy and embrace the universal truth of Milibandism!
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
    Sean_F said:

    Good news for the Blues from Prof. Stephen Fisher this morning!
    With his imput data showing the Tories 2% ahead of Labour on 34% compared with 32%, there is a corresponding shift in his updated projection of GE seats.
    The Tories are shown as winning 296 seats (+12 compared with last week), Labour are on 261 (-17) with the LibDems unchanged on 21 seats.
    The SNP are on a new high of 47 seats with UKIP on 5, Plaid on 3 and the Greens holding onto their one existing seat.
    The Tories are givrn a 74% chance of winning the most seats and a 16% chance of achieving an overall majority, where he gives Labour only a 1% chance!
    Stand by for a significant shift in the betting odds.

    I think the Tories are heading for a vote share of 35-36%. I intend to crunch some numbers at the weekend, but am working off Con - 36% and Lab - 32%.

    The top end polling numbers for the Tories (and we've had a few 36%'s now) have historically tended to be the most accurate.
    Populus still pulls the Conservative average down a bit. Probably because of the high numbers it gives to UKIP.

    A simple average of polls from Monday onwards has Labour 33.8%, Conservative 33.5%.
    With a longer (20-poll) YouGov moving average, the Tories have been ahead of Labour for the last 11 data points. Click to enlarge...

    Simple, Free Image and File Hosting at MediaFire
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    Mr. NorthWales, is that per procedure, or for the entire company over the course of a year?
  • philiph said:

    Ed Miliband has just said that any private company undertaking NHS operations will be restricted to 5% profit. How will he make up the lost capacity when these companies walk away

    Gross or Net?

    Indeed that would create a hole, and how will he work it out?
    Think its like a lot of his policies - not thought out - and why has labour stopped some journalists attending his speech
  • glwglw Posts: 9,956

    Ed Miliband has just said that any private company undertaking NHS operations will be restricted to 5% profit. How will he make up the lost capacity when these companies walk away

    That sounds like a brilliant idea, I can't think of any possible problems with that. I'm really looking forward to PM Miliband now.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Paul Waugh ‏@paulwaugh 8s9 seconds ago
    Asked about SNP, Miliband: "The only Coalition I'm interested in is a coalition of working families across our country."
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Ed Miliband has just said that any private company undertaking NHS operations will be restricted to 5% profit. How will he make up the lost capacity when these companies walk away

    PFI all round. 5% over each of 30 years... simples.

    Nobody cares outside Labour cares about private vs public provision as long as its free and good..
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    dr_spyn said:

    Paul Waugh ‏@paulwaugh 8s9 seconds ago
    Asked about SNP, Miliband: "The only Coalition I'm interested in is a coalition of working families across our country."

    And will there be more working families, as under the coalition, or less working families as under Labour?
  • Mr. NorthWales, is that per procedure, or for the entire company over the course of a year?

    He said that he would restrict profit to 5% and seemed to imply per operation but not clear
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,947

    @PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 33 (-), Con 31 (-), LD 9 (-), UKIP 16 (-), Greens 5 (-), Others 6 (-). Tables here: http://t.co/7XhlYV48U6

    Admit it Populus: the dog ate your homework didn't it?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited March 2015
    I see Ed is wanting to "reset more markets"...he doesn't get business does he.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780

    Ed Miliband has just said that any private company undertaking NHS operations will be restricted to 5% profit. How will he make up the lost capacity when these companies walk away

    I can't see how on earth thats workable at all..
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    dr_spyn said:

    Paul Waugh ‏@paulwaugh 8s9 seconds ago
    Asked about SNP, Miliband: "The only Coalition I'm interested in is a coalition of working families across our country."

    As part of a working family the last thing I want is to coalesce with another working family.

    Goon.
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191

    Sorry if been posted, but what were the estimates of viewing figures for last night?

    @NumbrCrunchrPolitics retweeted
    May2015 ‏@May2015NS 20m20 minutes ago

    Mili-Cameron managed 2.9m viewers last night. Perspective: Question Time got 2.6m, The Week got 1m & Newsnight 525k.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,027
    One thing worth noting from Fisher's latest forecast is that swingback is over. He says:

    "Further out from the election we were also forecasting government recovery and opposition setback effects. Now we are so close to the election — and because both Labour and the Conservatives are polling not far from their 2010 vote shares — there is little historical reason to expect much swing back for either of the two main parties."

    They still think the Tories will outperform the poll and Labour underperform it by 1% each. This is on the basis that the polls have historically had that level of bias. I am sure that they have but most pollsters have tried to adjust their methodology to reflect that.

    So a lead of 2 becomes a lead of 4 on a pretty dodgy basis and the Tories are the largest party. Well, it was an interesting election whilst it lasted. Hope it was profitable for you.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: The Labour Party refused to invite certain newspapers to its election campaign launch today. Last time this happened was under Kinnock.

    Get your light-bulbs...

    I assume The Mirror didn't bother to attend as they already hacked all the information?
  • Is it me or has Ed Miliband not contradicted himself when vowing to stop privatisation of the NHS and in the same speech attempt to restrict private companies to 5% profit on operations
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    TGOHF said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Paul Waugh ‏@paulwaugh 8s9 seconds ago
    Asked about SNP, Miliband: "The only Coalition I'm interested in is a coalition of working families across our country."

    As part of a working family the last thing I want is to coalesce with another working family.

    Goon.
    I can think of some families that have members I would happily coalesce with!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Scott_P said:

    @JohnRentoul: Everything Yes voters believe about the Scottish #indyref is wrong @alexmassie http://t.co/3xxfzw2Hg2

    @blairmcdougall: End of the pink champagne betrayal narrative? Just 3.4% voted no because of The Vow while 5.2% voted no because they didn't trust Salmond.

    I've looked at the slides of the preliminary results and they actually define the biggest indicator as willingness to take risks and face fear.

    Literally people less scared of spiders were more likely to vote Yes.

    http://www.scottishreferendumstudy.com/files/2015/01/RHUL-slides.pdf

    The question about what was the biggest factor is a weird collection of 6
    1 Because independence would have made Scotland worse off economically
    2 I wanted to vote ‘Yes’ but in the end it seemed a bit too risky
    3 Because Scotland is going to get the extra powers I want anyway
    4 Because I didn’t trust Alex Salmond
    5 Because I feel British and believe in the Union
    6 Because there were too many unanswered questions

    The result mesh realtively closely with Ashcrifts findings except Ashcroft found that 25% of people listed "More Powers" as their most important reason for voting No.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,717

    Ed Miliband has just said that any private company undertaking NHS operations will be restricted to 5% profit. How will he make up the lost capacity when these companies walk away

    I can't see how on earth thats workable at all..
    Milliband’s got a thing about freezing prices (and profits) hasn’t he. I want him to come up with something good, I really do, but he’s making it very hard to vote Labour!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Populus:

    Lab 33.1% -> 32.9%
    Con 31.0% -> 30.8%
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,568
    Populus (sampling Wed-Thur) and YouGov (ditto) show the tied position essentially unchanged. It'll be interesting to see if the debate reports do anything, but I doubt it - if only 8% of the people who'd signed up to give an opinion say it's changed their view, the figure must be lower in the general public. Perhaps a 1-point flicker either way?

    The evident view of punters that things will shift to the Tories in the next 6 weeks, even though they haven't over the last months, doesn't seem to be based on anything in particular, just a gut feeling that surely the voters will change their views. But the main Tory themes - "the economy is doing wonderfully, and what about that Miliband, eh?" have been aired to death already, with no visible effect.

    As with the stock market, the best predictor of tomorrow's prices, in the absence of other data, is today's prices. But DYOR.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,027

    Is it me or has Ed Miliband not contradicted himself when vowing to stop privatisation of the NHS and in the same speech attempt to restrict private companies to 5% profit on operations

    Not really. At those margins efficient alternative providers who could save the NHS money for more useful things will tell him to go forth and multiply.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    When is a cap not a cap or a freeze

    @paulwaugh: In small print. Lab says new 5% cap can rise or fall.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Pulpstar
    Rigged like a tea clipper?
    :)
  • glwglw Posts: 9,956

    Is it me or has Ed Miliband not contradicted himself when vowing to stop privatisation of the NHS and in the same speech attempt to restrict private companies to 5% profit on operations

    Ed's not making a carefully thought out set of logically compatible arguments, he's saying things that he hopes will make potential voters feel better about voting for Labour.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780

    Ed Miliband has just said that any private company undertaking NHS operations will be restricted to 5% profit. How will he make up the lost capacity when these companies walk away

    I can't see how on earth thats workable at all..
    Milliband’s got a thing about freezing prices (and profits) hasn’t he. I want him to come up with something good, I really do, but he’s making it very hard to vote Labour!
    i would have thought capping profits to 5% woudl effectively kill it dead. Is the 5% gross, or net , does it include corporation tax or not.

    I would have though any investors would walk away from something offering 5% max with a higher level of risk than many other investments. 5% Gross of corporation tax is only 4% Net of corporation tax for example.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited March 2015
    Guess what. Mr Allegra Stratton on Daily Politics portraying Cameron as receiving lots of body blows and mentions no negatives on Miliband. That reminds me not to take out that sub to the Spectator that I nearly did last week.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MichaelPDeacon: Is Ed Miliband tough enough to take questions after his speech this morning? HELL NO, we've just been told he won't be taking any

    @MichaelPDeacon: STOP PRESS: He's decided to take two questions after all. WE'VE UNDERESTIMATED HIM AT EVERY TURN
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited March 2015
    @Scott_P
    It gives each commissioning group the power to set the levels according to individual local needs.
    It might not be a good solution, but the problem exists, as some people have pointed out before.
  • Great perception from Andrew Neil that Paxman and Cameron were the least prepared. Paxman had not done as much thinking about what he was going to ask Miliband about.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited March 2015
    DavidL said:

    Is it me or has Ed Miliband not contradicted himself when vowing to stop privatisation of the NHS and in the same speech attempt to restrict private companies to 5% profit on operations

    Not really. At those margins efficient alternative providers who could save the NHS money for more useful things will tell him to go forth and multiply.
    I am with Captain Fluellen on that one:

    "By Cheshu, he is an ass, as in the world: I will
    verify as much in his beard: he has no more
    directions in the true disciplines of the wars, look
    you, of the Roman disciplines, than is a puppy-dog."
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Scott_P said:

    @MichaelPDeacon: Is Ed Miliband tough enough to take questions after his speech this morning? HELL NO, we've just been told he won't be taking any

    @MichaelPDeacon: STOP PRESS: He's decided to take two questions after all. WE'VE UNDERESTIMATED HIM AT EVERY TURN

    Which friendly journo has he got to throw him soft balls?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,717

    Ed Miliband has just said that any private company undertaking NHS operations will be restricted to 5% profit. How will he make up the lost capacity when these companies walk away

    I can't see how on earth thats workable at all..
    Milliband’s got a thing about freezing prices (and profits) hasn’t he. I want him to come up with something good, I really do, but he’s making it very hard to vote Labour!
    i would have thought capping profits to 5% woudl effectively kill it dead. Is the 5% gross, or net , does it include corporation tax or not.

    I would have though any investors would walk away from something offering 5% max with a higher level of risk than many other investments. 5% Gross of corporation tax is only 4% Net of corporation tax for example.
    Quite. Goose/golden egg syndrome
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    Regulation is a good thing.

    I work in a heavily regulated company - if it wasn't regulated, the public would be screwed a million times over.

    The right-wing loons who live on this blog may disagree but the public are very supportive of the regulation / price cap / prize freeze principle.

    It may be highly populist, but Milliband is onto a winner here....
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Populus (sampling Wed-Thur) and YouGov (ditto) show the tied position essentially unchanged. It'll be interesting to see if the debate reports do anything, but I doubt it - if only 8% of the people who'd signed up to give an opinion say it's changed their view, the figure must be lower in the general public. Perhaps a 1-point flicker either way?

    The evident view of punters that things will shift to the Tories in the next 6 weeks, even though they haven't over the last months, doesn't seem to be based on anything in particular, just a gut feeling that surely the voters will change their views. But the main Tory themes - "the economy is doing wonderfully, and what about that Miliband, eh?" have been aired to death already, with no visible effect.

    As with the stock market, the best predictor of tomorrow's prices, in the absence of other data, is today's prices. But DYOR.

    Nick, I asked you a question some time ago that you must have missed .... :smile:

    After polling closes on 7th May will you post your estimate for the result in Broxtowe?

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,378
    philiph said:

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: The Labour Party refused to invite certain newspapers to its election campaign launch today. Last time this happened was under Kinnock.

    Get your light-bulbs...

    Er, what do light-bulbs have to do with it, please?

    'Will the last one to leave the country please turn off the light' with a picture of a light bulb.

    Quote from the Sun front page, election day ??? Foot or Kinnock, can't remember which
    Ah, thank you: must be this one then:

    http://www.bl.uk/learning/histcitizen/fpage/elections/election.html

  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited March 2015
    Smarmeron said:

    @Scott_P
    It gives each commissioning group the power to set the levels according to individual local needs.
    It might not be a good solution, but the problem exists, as some people have pointed out before.

    Is the NHS too big / complex to manage effectively?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited March 2015
    I presume that under Ed's plan there will have to be a new quango, the Office of NHS Private Operators...and they will have to look through every single providers accounts etc.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Slackbladder
    "Illness is ghastly, but it should at least be profitable?"
    Lynton will be in raptures at that line.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    That's a no then...

    @paulwaugh: When I ask if Labour will use manifesto to meet Simon Stevens full £8bn funding plea, Lab spksman: party will 'show its commitment' to NHS
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,027

    Great perception from Andrew Neil that Paxman and Cameron were the least prepared. Paxman had not done as much thinking about what he was going to ask Miliband about.

    He had a plan to hold him to account for the gross failures of the last Labour government but Ed forestalled it by walking away from that record at every opportunity. After that there wasn't much left to talk about other than how's the family doing?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    murali_s said:

    Regulation is a good thing.

    I work in a heavily regulated company - if it wasn't regulated, the public would be screwed a million times over.

    The right-wing loons who live on this blog may disagree but the public are very supportive of the regulation / price cap / prize freeze principle.

    It may be highly populist, but Milliband is onto a winner here....

    And history shows it to be a route to complacency, mediocrity, poor value and inflated costs.
  • PMQs already seems a long time ago..

    Looking forward to seeing Ed front, left and centre of the campaign from here.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @philiph
    "Hitchinbrooke" shows that the tariffs are wrong, even for the private sector?
    As I said, the problem exists and needs a solution.
  • Ed Miliband has just said that any private company undertaking NHS operations will be restricted to 5% profit. How will he make up the lost capacity when these companies walk away

    Almost worth wishing to happen and then get in the pop corn and watch the patient misery increase. Except that these are real peoples lives including my family, being affected badly because of socialist dogma. Maybe that is what we have to endure to arrive in a better place in 2020?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Smarmeron said:

    @Scott_P
    It gives each commissioning group the power to set the levels according to individual local needs.
    It might not be a good solution, but the problem exists, as some people have pointed out before.

    If it really is the end of the national tariffs, that may well be a good thing.
  • Burnham showing his lack of practical nous.
    Neil: When will the extra money for NHS etc come from in 2015/16?
    Burnham = The money will start flowing (from the mansion tax and loopholes) straight away....
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    Mr. Betting, straight away?

    So... prior to the tax being passed into law by a Budget, and prior to collection?

    I'm not sure this Burnham chap quite understands the concept of time.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited March 2015

    Burnham showing his lack of practical nous.
    Neil: When will the extra money for NHS etc come from in 2015/16?
    Burnham = The money will start flowing (from the mansion tax and loopholes) straight away....

    That will raise a drop in the ocean. How stupid does he think people are? (you don't need to answer that)
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    philiph said:

    murali_s said:

    Regulation is a good thing.

    I work in a heavily regulated company - if it wasn't regulated, the public would be screwed a million times over.

    The right-wing loons who live on this blog may disagree but the public are very supportive of the regulation / price cap / prize freeze principle.

    It may be highly populist, but Milliband is onto a winner here....

    And history shows it to be a route to complacency, mediocrity, poor value and inflated costs.
    If you are lucky, or the private provider telling the government to get stuffed because it can make more profit leaving the money in the bank, and walking away.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Looking forward to seeing Ed front, left and centre of the campaign from here.

    Me too......but possibly not for the same reasons......
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533

    Burnham showing his lack of practical nous.
    Neil: When will the extra money for NHS etc come from in 2015/16?
    Burnham = The money will start flowing (from the mansion tax and loopholes) straight away....

    Even with the magic money tree you have to wait for it to grown a little bit.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,378

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: The Labour Party refused to invite certain newspapers to its election campaign launch today. Last time this happened was under Kinnock.

    Get your light-bulbs...

    Er, what do light-bulbs have to do with it, please?

    The Sun front page on the day of 1992 General Election

    http://www.classicheadlines.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/Kinnock-lightbulb.jog_.jpg
    Thank you too!
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    I mentioned Steve Richards Indy piece from earlier this week last night. I thought it somewhat surprising in revealing Miliband's strategy as to keep a low profile and put huge emphasis on the debates come election time. I have to say I find that odd. Everyone assumes that his ratings are so poor that he could only improve them by actually getting out and performing in front of people. Instead he seemed to gamble all on the debates that he must have known Cameron would try and scupper.

    Last night was good for him in that he will have improved some opinions of him. But the viewing figures weren't great and how the extended news coverage pays out is a lottery. The 7 way won't garner the same enthusiasm as the 3 way did last time and the same can be said of the challengers debate. All you're then left with is a Question Time special. He'll surely improve his ratings sans disaster but it looks too little too late.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Smarmeron said:

    @philiph
    "Hitchinbrooke" shows that the tariffs are wrong, even for the private sector?
    As I said, the problem exists and needs a solution.

    Lansley reforms have created a conflict of interest where some providers also commission services.

    As a result Acute Trusts are being bankrupted with less than cost payments for Emergency Care.

    Even Circle concur.

    Solution repeal the Lansley reforms

    Easy
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    Labour still walking into a trap on NHS spending. There is £20bn worth of spending rises in the budget that have not been outlined. If they can't see where this money is going then they are in trouble.

    Real terms spending rises for the NHS that Labour won't be able to match because they are protecting spending in other areas as well as the NHS.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780

    Burnham showing his lack of practical nous.
    Neil: When will the extra money for NHS etc come from in 2015/16?
    Burnham = The money will start flowing (from the mansion tax and loopholes) straight away....

    Isn't that money being spent on extra nurses in scotland already?
This discussion has been closed.