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SystemSystem Posts: 12,291
edited March 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Let the debates begin

I think Ed will be perceived to be the winner from tonight’s events, because the old maxim of success equals performance minus expectation, and the expecation for Ed is probably lower than it is for David Cameron, especially after David Cameron’s successful performance at PMQs yesterday.

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Comments

  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Hi all.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,024
    Crap, missed the start due to typing here.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    That was boring!

    Have they started yet?
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    This seems more difficult than a debate with Farage.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,024
    edited March 2015
    On the basis that most people will remember the ending soundbites and the bit most likely to have been seen (the very start), calling this one a win for Ed M already (joke), food banks a hard issue for Cameron.

    Already falling back on the 'that's not the question' tactic, bad sign? Though Paxo began the 'I met/spoke to a man/woman' gimmick, funny.

    More interesting to see Paxman doing this than the other party leaders I'd have thought.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,740
    Zero hours :P
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,624
    edited March 2015
    I am sure Ed will do fine and given low expectations it will be "well didn't he go well".

    Think about his conference speeches, not the "when I met Gareth", but the one before it. If Cameron had given a similar speech, it would have been reported as Cameron did his usual polished performance, but instead it was reported as Ed was like MLK reborn, just because the yardstick was so low.

    Miliband will be prepped to the earballs for this, where as as we saw Cameron spent the weekend chillaxing.

    I don't think Paxman is that much to worry about these days, and the public you just agree to disagree, as they won't be allowed to engage you extended and detailed in back and forth.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Cameron started badly, perhaps he didn't expect that Paxman will bite him straight from the beginning.
  • TwistedFireStopperTwistedFireStopper Posts: 2,538
    Pax man is good at this stuff.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,449
    Shakey start by Cameron. He doesn't look comfortable.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,341
    Speedy said:

    Cameron started badly, perhaps he didn't expect that Paxman will bite him straight from the beginning.

    It did seem an odd start to the interview - it probably gives a pointer to Ed as what to expect - different topics mind!

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,350
    Walked into the "well that's the question I am asking."

    But Ed finishing with Paxo. That has the potential to be a car crash if anyone is still watching.
  • FattyBolgerFattyBolger Posts: 299
    Hope Ed isn't watching....he'll be brickin it. What a hostile opening from Paxo
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,740
    Yep
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,449
    Cameron getting a bit prickly.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Cameron says that he defended Clarkson before actually knowing what happened.
    U turn.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,232
    Missed the first few minutes. Any fireworks?
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Cameron slipping badly on the debt issue.

    Up to then was doing well enough.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,350
    God, you forget how good Paxo is. We really miss him.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,449
    Immigration. Oh Lord.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,024
    Casino_Royale said:

    Cameron getting a bit prickly.

    Hard not to be when facing Paxman in this mood of course - a question of how reasonable someone can appear even when obviously prickly I guess. Not sure how well Cameron manages that, but not Ed M's strength of course - this is shaping up to be more fun than I'd have thought.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,740
    I wouldn't lay off those Ed soiling himself bets yet !
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,624
    edited March 2015
    I was wrong...seems that break from Newsight has done Paxman good...as at Newsnight he just mailed it in for last 2 years.
  • FattyBolgerFattyBolger Posts: 299
    Call me Dave looking stressed, cant blame him mind...
  • TwistedFireStopperTwistedFireStopper Posts: 2,538
    Cameron looks a bit tetchy. I hope Paxman keeps on at him, and that he gives Milliband a proper shoeing too.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Cameron said the min wage has increased above the rate of inflation

    What is that rate?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,011
    Extraordinary start; more people use foodbanks because jobcentres now tell people about them!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,024
    Gods, imagine Clegg facing this sort of thing with the last 5 years of ammunition.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,449
    A bit better on immigration. He seems better prepared for that.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    This is a very aggressive interview.
    Paxman is a good griller, he attacks relentlessly and forces Cameron to defend himself desperately.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Paxman is awesome
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    It's like a candidate who bulls on his CV and then comes up against a thorough interviewer.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,015
    Has the debt only gone up by £500bn? Is that excluding the Bank of England gilt purchases?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,024
    Love the phrasing on the VAT thing. Paxman: You said it to my face.

    Cameron didn't just go back on the British people - he went back on Paxman!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,341
    Quite a good answer on VAT - I'm not sure I believe him though.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,448
    Not a bad start for Dave and Paxo. Dave staying on message, Paxo getting the right questions in, stuff that hasn't been asked of Dave.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,624
    edited March 2015
    According to Labourites on here over the past few days, Paxman is just a Tory stooge? Funny way of showing it.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JohnRentoul: Paxo wrong on VAT. Cam did not say "exactly the same thing" before last elec. "No plans" is not same as promise not to.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Paxo stuffing the PM in early exchanges. Slightly more composed now.

    Bad for Cammo and Ed is in for a roasting too.

    Clegg and Farage will be quite pleased not to be in the hot seat on this reckoning.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,449
    I think Paxman may be even harder on Cameron because of the 'one-nation Tory' stories.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,448
    FrankBooth said:

    Has the debt only gone up by £500bn? Is that excluding the Bank of England gilt purchases?

    Must do.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,727
    This is why the BBC needs to be abolished.

    They let Paxman go.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Pulpstar said:

    I wouldn't lay off those Ed soiling himself bets yet !

    It looks now logical that Ed choose to start second, now he can see Paxman's style first hand and he can prepare for it better.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,024
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    According to Labourites on here over the past few days, Paxman is just a Tory stooge? Funny way of showing it.

    That's how they fool you - by pretending not to be stooges. You wait and see, he'll ask Ed M a hard question at some point, the stooge, that'll be the proof he's an open Tory.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @skynewsniall: The "big rubbery horse-face of mock incredulity" is very much in evidence this evening #BattleForNumber10
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,449
    A debate might actually have been easier than Paxman.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,341
    Not wanting to raise expectations for Ed, but I don't think we should underestimate just how much of a belligerent little ****er Ed is.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,624
    Seems like it is a good job Cameron is getting this Paxo-ing out the way well before the GE and without 10-15 million people watching.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Waste savings, the old panacea to cover any gaps in a plan..
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Oh dear
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,024
    Scott_P said:

    @JohnRentoul: Paxo wrong on VAT. Cam did not say "exactly the same thing" before last elec. "No plans" is not same as promise not to.

    True, but to the man in the street it's them being led to the same inference intentionally. Standard political phrasing, so legitimate to critique as though it was a firm promise, as that was the impression meant to be given.

    Cameron seeming to have firmed up a little.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,740
    Not watching but I'll assume Paxo is doing a decent job judging by the Blairites & others whinging according to ScottP's tweets.
  • FattyBolgerFattyBolger Posts: 299
    Despite this thread's excitement, I bet I'm the only person from my work watching this.

    The Birmingham Office Girls really dont give a fig.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Casino_Royale said:

    A debate might actually have been easier than Paxman.

    I was thinking that, too.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,350
    Cameron got the pace a wee bit now having got caught flat footed by the at the throat manoeuvre.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,341
    Why's Paxo asking about Libya? It is bad, but surely the more pressing questions are about Syria and Russia?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,449
    Pong said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    A debate might actually have been easier than Paxman.

    I was thinking that, too.
    He's asking all of Cameron's worst nightmare questions.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,024
    FattyBolger said:

    Despite this thread's excitement, I bet I'm the only person from my work watching this.

    The Birmingham Office Girls really dont give a fig.

    That's fair - the hope is some of it filters through to the public at large in some small way, or fires up the political bases and has an impact that way, but no-one seriously presumes that it definitely will.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @WelshGasDoc: From Malcolm Tucker's files...here is his summary of Jeremy Paxman #BattleForNumber10 http://t.co/494EHTYOxn
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,624
    I predict one thing...Miliband will have all his dodgy figures in order and know more than Paxo about them.

    The big weakness of Cameron is always he doesn't do the detail. So when somebody gets past the spun figure and says ok, I have looked and you still need x extra, Cameron gets lost.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    PM better as the interview concludes.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,015
    What are the odds that Paxman mentions The Mirror and phone hacking to Miliband? Has to be high. So stupid of Ed not to deal with that one.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,341
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I predict one thing...Miliband will have all his dodgy figures in order and know more than Paxo about them.

    The big weakness of Cameron is always he doesn't do the detail. So when somebody gets past the spun figure and says ok, I have looked and you still need x extra, Cameron gets lost.

    Agree with that.
  • roserees64roserees64 Posts: 251
    Disater for Cameron, low bar for Miliband.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 2015
    What price was "difficult decisions" in the buzzword bingo?

    Or were there bands 0-5 6-10 etc?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,449
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This is why the BBC needs to be abolished.

    They let Paxman go.

    He's a class act.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,624
    Q: People are being beheaded on the beach.

    Cameron says it has been very difficult.

    ----------------

    I seemed to remember there was huge doubt that was actually true.
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    Agree with SeanT. This is a bit dull

    GOOD!

    I want serious discussion and grilling. I want all politicians to face hard interviews as a matter of course. Not silly gotcha type stuff like on R4 breakfast or PM etc
    As for the so-called debates. Phooey. Silly circuses all round.

    This is much better.

  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    God I hate the smug Lidl adverts.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,232
    roserees64 said:

    Disater for Cameron, low bar for Miliband.

    'disaster'?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @krishgm: Very good stuff. Paxo delivered. But tragically short. Just getting going then over #BattleForNumber10
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,449
    Not good if Miliband does proportionately better than Cameron.

    One thing is for sure; he will have prepared his arse off.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,232
    Ghedebrav said:

    God I hate the smug Lidl adverts.

    Watch it on youtube, no ads!
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    So far Cameron started badly with Paxman but improved in the end.
    I give him a 4/10.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,024
    edited March 2015
    SeanT said:

    Just boring now. This is pointless. We need DEBATES. This is just an interview with more kerfuffle.

    Dull.

    A bit short for my tastes, and I'm glad we get at least one proper debate too, but as the actual useful content value of both formats is not likely to be huge, I don't mind the variety myself. Would have preferred more full debates though.

    Pointless question of the minute - better to go Paxo first then audience, or vice-versa? The latter could allow you to get into the swing of things before Paxman goes to town I suppose. You know the sorts of things he will be asking, and it's straightforward aggressive questioning, but people still just cannot seem to ready themselves for it from the off
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    You can tell that the questions asked weren't anything like the ones he has prepped with his colleagues in the last week.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,164
    Incredibly easy to ask the questions, much harder to ask them. The best post I read on here today makes the point that Labour are simply throwing bile at easy targets - bedroom tax, food banks, etc. They do not look like an alternative govt anymore than Paxo looks like an alternative PM.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,448
    roserees64 said:

    Disater for Cameron, low bar for Miliband.

    Hardly. No gaffes and a straight bat.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,341
    The only thing that struck me as possibly significant is that Cameron admitted to not being able to live on a zero hours contract.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,449
    SeanT said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Pong said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    A debate might actually have been easier than Paxman.

    I was thinking that, too.
    He's asking all of Cameron's worst nightmare questions.
    Duh? They are the obvious questions an A Level Politics student would ask. Clear weak points.

    I don't think this is going to change a single vote, unless Cameron or Miliband accidentally bukkakes Kay Burley.

    We're all inured to political interviews, plus this is on SKY, viewing figs will be minimal.

    A debate might have done damage to either. This format? Nope.


    Obvious to you and me, but Cameron has a "wing it" style and isn't a very good debater.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,011
    A lot of dodging by Dave as it went on.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,624
    FrankBooth said:

    What are the odds that Paxman mentions The Mirror and phone hacking to Miliband? Has to be high. So stupid of Ed not to deal with that one.

    He should do, but I somehow feel he wont. The media have not really been pushing the Mirror hacking at all.

    I would also ask after being so critical of Cameron's appointment of Coulson, despite warnings about his past, why he choose to employ Baldwin (insert plenty of good quotes from Ashcroft book) and also a long time Mirror man.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Thank God paxo didn't go on the NHS ;-)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,350
    That was brutal. Sod Clarkson. Bring back Paxo.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,624
    edited March 2015
    MaxPB said:

    roserees64 said:

    Disater for Cameron, low bar for Miliband.

    Hardly. No gaffes and a straight bat.
    The zero hour contract thing will be spun against him.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,727
    Is it me, or did Jeremy Paxman gave him the sort of grilling Ed Miliband has never been able to do so?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,015
    A thought has just occured to me. None of the politicians do many of these tough interviews anymore. They simply won't be match fit the way Blair for all his faults was. As for all the preparation they've done - it's a bit like England practising penalties. You can't replicate the match situation.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Cameron/Paxo Interview 6/10.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,164
    tlg86 said:

    The only thing that struck me as possibly significant is that Cameron admitted to not being able to live on a zero hours contract.

    Rubbish. He said that they suit some people. And they do. Get in the real world - without zero hours there would be fewer jobs, lower economic growth, more reliance on a state that can not afford to spend as much as it does.
  • BlueberryBlueberry Posts: 408
    Cammo did alright there. No howlers. Pretty good defense of the status quo.
  • TwistedFireStopperTwistedFireStopper Posts: 2,538
    What the hell has happened to Kay Burley?
  • FattyBolgerFattyBolger Posts: 299
    Yep 4 out of 10 seems about right.

    Seemed on the back foot and a little taken aback by the aggession.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Casino_Royale said:

    Not good if Miliband does proportionately better than Cameron.

    One thing is for sure; he will have prepared his arse off.

    Doesn't really matter if the viewing figures are low.
  • StrangeloveStrangelove Posts: 1
    Paxo! Go Paxo!
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    SeanT said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Pong said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    A debate might actually have been easier than Paxman.

    I was thinking that, too.
    He's asking all of Cameron's worst nightmare questions.
    Duh? They are the obvious questions an A Level Politics student would ask. Clear weak points.

    I don't think this is going to change a single vote, unless Cameron or Miliband accidentally bukkakes Kay Burley.

    We're all inured to political interviews, plus this is on SKY, viewing figs will be minimal.

    A debate might have done damage to either. This format? Nope.


    The "biggest disaster" question is utterly obvious.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    Cameron answered the last question well about when he was going to leave. The only answer that seemed genuine, and brought a nice human response.

    As for the rest.....oh dear David. It won't change votes initially, but'll as I said earlier Cameron is hardly starting the pistol with a spring in his step.... and he will increasingly be fair game to the journos
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,024
    edited March 2015
    Impact polls or votes? Almost certainly not, no matter what happens. But I'm just here to be entertained, so on that basis not too bad.

    Huh, first question from a guy with the name of the UKIP candidate in my constituency.

    Cameron, don't mention the bad things other people say about you - that's for them to do, don't remind us.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2015
    First audience question forces Cameron to defend Miliband!
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    roserees64 said:

    Disater for Cameron, low bar for Miliband.

    Seriously?

    So what are you going to say if Ed fails to clear the bar and doesn't put in a demonstrably better performance than Dave?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,011
    First public question utter nonsense
This discussion has been closed.