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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The voters’ verdict on the impact of the budget

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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,037
    MikeL said:

    Evening Rob - you've got the Survation poll entered twice on your spreadsheet.

    Should be just 21 Mar - need to delete 19 Mar!

    Thanks Mike. I had added that an hour or so ago, thinking I had missed a poll over the weekend.
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    This article also includes full transcript of Anna Soubry's exchanges with Alex Salmond on the Marr show this morning.
    Daily Mail - Salmond holds Ed to ransom: SNP chief boasts he would dictate a first Labour budget with plans for £180bn spending spree to 'end austerity'

    "Alex Salmond vowed yesterday to hold a Labour minority government to ransom to secure a £180billion debt-fuelled spending spree.

    Scotland's former first minister boasted that an SNP landslide at the General Election would allow him to dictate Ed Balls's first Budget as Chancellor – and demand that he 'end austerity'.

    Mr Salmond also declared construction of the HS2 rail line would have to start in Scotland and Britain's nuclear defences be scaled back.

    With polls pointing to a hung Parliament and the SNP on course to win dozens of seats from Labour, he said of last year's independence referendum: 'We haven't lost after all. If you hold the balance, then you hold the power.'

    Tory Defence Minister Anna Soubry told him he had delivered one of the 'scariest interviews' in modern political history.

    Boris Johnson increased pressure on Labour to rule out any post-election deal with the SNP, which is predicted to take as many as 50 of Scotland's 59 seats, up from six in 2010.

    'Labour would be drawn to feed the beast,' he said. 'That's what they have always done. They have created the problems by trying to appease Scottish Nationalism. They have endlessly encouraged it rather than taking it on.'

    The Conservative Mayor of London called himself an 'absolutely fervent unionist' and said he was 'very worried' the SNP was deliberately stoking resentment against the Scots in the rest of the UK. He condemned Labour for vowing to use a new levy on expensive homes in the South East of England to pay for public services north of the border."
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,325
    edited March 2015
    RobD said:

    MikeL said:

    Evening Rob - you've got the Survation poll entered twice on your spreadsheet.

    Should be just 21 Mar - need to delete 19 Mar!

    Thanks Mike. I had added that an hour or so ago, thinking I had missed a poll over the weekend.
    No problem - think your graphs are invaluable.

    It's quite interesting - whilst I would say the last 7 days has been slightly disappointing for Con in terms of its position vs Lab, it's notable that the Con rating is at least still rising.

    The UKIP and Green trends are very striking - and this is before the campaign proper even gets going.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,037
    MikeL said:

    RobD said:

    MikeL said:

    Evening Rob - you've got the Survation poll entered twice on your spreadsheet.

    Should be just 21 Mar - need to delete 19 Mar!

    Thanks Mike. I had added that an hour or so ago, thinking I had missed a poll over the weekend.
    No problem - think your graphs are invaluable.

    It's quite interesting - whilst I would say the last 7 days has been slightly disappointing for Con in terms of its position vs Lab, it's notable that the Con rating is at least still rising.

    The UKIP and Green trends are very striking - and this is before the campaign proper even gets going.
    You'll also enjoy the may2015.com website, as you can adjust the moving average window, whereas I only have two options (7 or 15 days).

    I agree with you, greens starting to fade, as are UKIP (more striking in the 15-day average plot). Farage does have an ace in his sleeve with UKIPs major party status.
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,325
    edited March 2015
    RobD said:

    MikeL said:

    RobD said:

    MikeL said:

    Evening Rob - you've got the Survation poll entered twice on your spreadsheet.

    Should be just 21 Mar - need to delete 19 Mar!

    Thanks Mike. I had added that an hour or so ago, thinking I had missed a poll over the weekend.
    No problem - think your graphs are invaluable.

    It's quite interesting - whilst I would say the last 7 days has been slightly disappointing for Con in terms of its position vs Lab, it's notable that the Con rating is at least still rising.

    The UKIP and Green trends are very striking - and this is before the campaign proper even gets going.
    You'll also enjoy the may2015.com website, as you can adjust the moving average window, whereas I only have two options (7 or 15 days).

    I agree with you, greens starting to fade, as are UKIP (more striking in the 15-day average plot). Farage does have an ace in his sleeve with UKIPs major party status.
    Yes, but we'll have to see what major party status actually gives UKIP in practice.

    The debates in 2010 were massive because the media hyped them as massive. I suspect that just isn't going to happen this time and we could see very mundane TV ratings for all four leader events - except possibly the ITV 7 person debate with all leaders. But even that is handicapped by being on the evening before Easter.

    So it could all just turn into a very boring campaign.

    Even with major party status I would be very surprised if Farage leads many main TV news bulletins. If there are, say, 30 BBC1 10pm News during the campaign I would expect Cameron and Miliband to lead about 13 to 14 each, Clegg about 2 and Farage maybe 1.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,327
    MP_SE said:

    antifrank said:

    Suddenly everyone seems to have decided that we're getting a minority government:

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/mar/22/snp-tartan-labour-election-scotland

    'One senior Labour figure fears “civil disobedience” if the SNP accrues too much power over the English.'

    Will not voting and doing sit-down protests in front of the telly count?
    Perhaps they will invade the pub where Salmond or Sturgeon is having dinner with their family.
    And jump up and down on their car.

    One of the photos features a breastfeeding mother blocking his car. I would suggest social services investigate such negligent behaviour but they would be too busy harrassing UKIP supporters.
    Another UKIP supporter who is afraid of breasts. Or perhaps women?
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,161
    On topic, Osborne's problem is that he's never been able to work out whether to run on "Austerity, firm, fair and responsible" or "Cheaper beer and fabulous presents!". He started out doing well just running on the first one, but then he couldn't resist the temptation to try to do the second one as well, and his messaging has been unconvincing ever since.
  • Options
    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    MP_SE said:

    antifrank said:

    Suddenly everyone seems to have decided that we're getting a minority government:

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/mar/22/snp-tartan-labour-election-scotland

    'One senior Labour figure fears “civil disobedience” if the SNP accrues too much power over the English.'

    Will not voting and doing sit-down protests in front of the telly count?
    Perhaps they will invade the pub where Salmond or Sturgeon is having dinner with their family.
    And jump up and down on their car.

    One of the photos features a breastfeeding mother blocking his car. I would suggest social services investigate such negligent behaviour but they would be too busy harrassing UKIP supporters.
    Another UKIP supporter who is afraid of breasts. Or perhaps women?
    Another tory with micro-penis syndrome. Or perhaps halitosis?

    Grow up.

  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,327
    Ishmael_X said:

    MP_SE said:

    antifrank said:

    Suddenly everyone seems to have decided that we're getting a minority government:

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/mar/22/snp-tartan-labour-election-scotland

    'One senior Labour figure fears “civil disobedience” if the SNP accrues too much power over the English.'

    Will not voting and doing sit-down protests in front of the telly count?
    Perhaps they will invade the pub where Salmond or Sturgeon is having dinner with their family.
    And jump up and down on their car.

    One of the photos features a breastfeeding mother blocking his car. I would suggest social services investigate such negligent behaviour but they would be too busy harrassing UKIP supporters.
    Another UKIP supporter who is afraid of breasts. Or perhaps women?
    Another tory with micro-penis syndrome. Or perhaps halitosis?

    Grow up.

    I am not a Tory (tm). Therefore you fail at the first hurdle. ;-)
This discussion has been closed.