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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The voters’ verdict on the impact of the budget
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The voters’ verdict on the impact of the budget
Given the polling before the budget, the Tories might feel disappointed that the budget didn’t get more of a thumbs up from the electorate, there’s probably only one or two game changers left for the Tories, one of them is the debates, but according to reports, Ed has been preparing for a while, Dave has not.
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Con get 73% of Con 2010 + 5% Lab 2010 + 20% LD 2010
Con = (.73*37) + (.05*30) + (.20*24) = 27.01 + 1.5 + 4.8 = 33.31
Lab get 6% of Con 2010 + 78% Lab 2010 + 25% LD 2010
Lab = (.06*37) + (.78*30) + (.25*24) = 2.22 + 23.4 + 6 = 31.62
So just looking at people who voted Con/Lab/LD in 2010 it's Con 33.31, Lab 31.62.
Yet the overall poll result is Con 33, Lab 35.
This implies that Lab is getting a net boost of between 3 and 4 points entirely due to people who didn't vote in 2010.
OK, I guess it could in theory get switchers from minor parties but surely almost nobody is switching from SNP to Lab or UKIP to Lab so the overall magnitude here would be absolutely miniscule.
Any thoughts on this?
Opinium: Con 37 Lab 30 LD 15
Ipsos: Con 35 Lab 30 LD 21
YG: Con 36 Lab 32 LD 20
That said, Labour has not been able to make any capital out of it. Especially when Balls says he won't overturn any of it.
It's not a May election, so much as a "meh" election.....
Therefore I would have voted tactically in this poll, not accurately, to get my view across.
No deep thoughts. But the majority of new voters in each election presumably come from the kids who have come of age since the last election, i.e. 18-23 year olds. Is it surprising that this group would skew Labour?
At its core to me its a fake budget which begs the question what exactly are the Tories spending proposals and how badly will they cut non protected areas like defence and criminal justice. That about the only area you can be absolutely certain on is International Aid just adds insult to injury.
18 to 24s (7 year segment) comprise 11.9% of total weighted sample - first time voters (5 year segment) thus comprise (5/7) * 11.9 = 8.5%.
Lab lead by 10 points in that segment which would thus account for 0.85% of overall Lab lead.
So a significant component, but only approx 25% of what we are looking for.
I think if the Tories win, the cuts wont be as deep as planned (they weren't this time either) and if Labour win there will be cuts, despite what their plans say. Both will raise taxes.
You are right about the fake budget though, no concrete details of how any cuts would be implemented, just like 2010 Darling's plan (that commentators still hark back to as something solid) was exactly the same. Some headline big picture figures with no detailed plans of how to achieve them.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/departementales/2015/03/22/01054-20150322LIVWWW00013-en-direct-elections-departementales-suivez-le-premier-tour.php
But new voters only account for approx 25% of what we are looking for - ie in numbers below 0.85 points out of a total of 3 to 4 points.
I think the key question is actually as follows:
This is only one poll but is Lab getting a similar boost from 2010 non-voters in all polls? If so, will these people vote?
I found the budget full of items, apart from 1p off a pint, which looked like jam for tomorrow but on reflection would need a lot of thinking about. I still wonder HOW my teacher grandchildren are going to be able to save for a house, given the narrow margin between cost of living and income, especially as, although their salaries will rise with experience, the graduate tax will start to kick in.
News UK News Nigel Farage
UKIP leader Nigel Farage says his children are 'missing' after family chased out of pub by protesters
OKC, some council estates always had the latter problem and what would be the modern day remedy? I grew up in one in the 50s and 60s where they put all the bad eggs together. I was fifteen before I realised ours was one of them. But jobs were easier to get and drugs were almost unknown.
But maybe a three or four point change isn't impossible....A couple of points off Labour and onto the Tories. Tories say 37%, Labour 31%. And if the polling is anything like right, on such margins will this election be won and lost.
O, what a panic's in thy breastie!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6JeYlBRvUeE
A scottish version of the BNP.
Figures.
Think we'd better start preparing for Ed... Might be an idea to cash in your savings and hide them under your mattress?
Oh and stockpiling candles might not be a bad idea either...
That bad.
The first program I saw had a segment that featured a professor from - where else - California who claims to show evidence that money makes you mean, and The Rich give less to charity etc.
After about 80% of the segment was about this, then the comment was made that nobody else has been able to replicate his findings, and then listed about a half-dozen studies showing the exact opposite to the California study.
Good old Auntie..
Campaigner 'glues himself to PM'
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7520401.stm
Guardian profile:
http://www.theguardian.com/profile/danglass
Hopefully the police can find something to lock the attention seeking idiot up (behaviour likely to cause a breach of the peace?)!
I suppose its what you get when you give people free University education.
All the political barstewards of late have all come from the Labour Party. The greatest being Brown for what he did to the economy in the cause of furthering his own political ambitions.
I plan to sell my pounds for foreign currency way before the election, as the uncertainty about the result will hit the pound, and then buy pounds depending on the result that becomes clear on the last few days before the election.
Essentially what I did with the scottish referendum with 8% gains so far in the 6 months after.
Ewa Jasiewicz @ewajasiewicz · 1h 1 hour ago
Farage's local pub occupied by migrants, breastfeeding mum's, HIV queens, all smashing the piniata of bigotry. #UKIP
https://twitter.com/ewajasiewicz/status/579669055482818560
Ewa Jasiewicz @ewajasiewicz · 17m 17 minutes ago
This was an amazing moment. The Muslim call to prayer *inside Nigel Farage's local pub*. For tolerance. No #ukipcon
https://twitter.com/ewajasiewicz/status/579680216915812352
That's interesting - I had never realised before but the Con and Lab retention rates are not the 73% and 78% as per YouGov table and my post - because each 2010 Vote column adds to 100 just with people declaring a voting intention - ie excluding WNV/DK.
Thus the Con retention rate is really 73/(100 + 11) = 66% - a very different number indeed!!!
Of course I guess there's then the question of whether the DKs later return home but that's another matter.
Wonder if he had been exposed an EDL member and had gone round smashing stuff up what their opinion would have been?
There was intimidation and implied threats of retribution during the very heated referendum, but that has come to nothing.
And even if they wanted to raze democracy to the ground they can't because they don't have total power over scotland as long as it is part of Britain.
Just like some other instances in federations or unions there are vile extremist parties that govern parts of a federation but can't exercise total control.
Some parts of the USA during the 19&20th centuries are a good example.
"Dan Glass said the group was in fancy dress and included migrants, HIV activists, gay people, disabled people and breastfeeding mums."
If he wasn't there they would have staged a protest in his regular pub and presumably caused damage through putting up "decorations" and intimidating customers which would have lost business.
These people are vermin. They set out to harm a local business and bumping into Nigel Farage whose car they attacked was a bonus.
It really isnt a pleasant form of political discourse.
Its a taster for what Farage will attract in the election. It might well garner some sympathy but the left wing are likely to vote tactically for all that if this is anything to go by.
If not, it surely can't be long.....
As they see it, by holding the balance of power, even if there is a minority Tory government with ,say, 290 seats, they can agree or disagree any government legislation. A form of guerrilla legislative warfare. Basically, drive the government crazy ! It is then the "English" who will want them out ! The SNP wins through the back door - same result. Can't fault them with their strategy. It is not up to them to worry about a stable UK government.
The Militant Tendency died because of similar methods.
Sounds like FKUP is just the party for these guys....
b) He was at Strathclyde University
PARASITE!
So was it a phantom Sun on Sunday YG? (only Sunday Times?)
Do you support the "protest"?
I'm noting that two dozen Bufton Tuftons spluttering about anarchy in the UK isn't going to deter them. The opposite, in fact.
Who is the Frank you are against?
FFS. It's not democracy it's "Soaps" box politic. Everyone will claim they won the debate as will the papers along political lines and no guesses as to where the BBC will fall. What does it prove? Nada , zilch, nothing absolutely feckall. . A complete shambles where the debate over a debate has hidden the important issues for weeks and months.
We deserve everything we are going to get .....we truly do
Beyond the most staggering of idiots, it's hard to think of anyone who would approve of the foolishness of the protesters.
Broadcasters playing politics is a new low.
He said the SNP proposed UK economic plan was for no tax rises but he didn't say he wouldn't support a 50p rate. His only statement on the top rate of tax is that he would vote against a reduction in the top rate of tax.
It might just be me though, interview is here.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b05p2r5s/the-andrew-marr-show-22032015
If we cannot do that, then yes, we do deserve what we get, in which case the debates don't matter in the slightest, as if it wasn't them causing this 'distraction' it would have been something else. The 'problem' is the political culture, which to a large degree is informed by what the public expects of the political class, so the 'problem' is us, not them or how they try to engage with us.