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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON maintain their 14 seat lead on the main Commons seats s

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  • Conservative candidate in Inverclyde gave me a campaign postcard thingy on the train this afternoon. Oddly enough the kids got some Tory balloons during the by-election campaign there a few years ago as well. Given it's a constituency we only set foot in once every fortnight or so and is not a Tory target what are the chances? I've certainly never seen a campaigner from any other party there.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,132
    Mr. D, at least you're not a toad.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exploding_animal#Toads
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,772
    edited March 2015
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    IFS says 4 yrs of vicious cuts or 1 yr

    Big boost for Ed


    IFS say lowest paid hardest hit by tax and benefit changes under coalition.

    OBR says immigrants are the main reason for the recovery of the economy

    Link please.

    The charts I've seen show that the richest quintile has done the worst, followed by the poorest quintile.
    Is it in here?

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/mar/19/george-osbornes-post-budget-inteviews-politics-live-blog
    why don't you have a look and tell me.
    It is

    Why, cant you read now?
  • The malaise in the public is not surprising and it may help when the end of march/beginning of april debates start and on the publication of manifestos. But it could just be that the news has been so positive on the economy they don't want to listen to lots of politicians arguing and talking over each other and will just decide their vote on the day in the polling booth.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JakeReesMogg: Ms Sturgeon has "admitted that the SNP have made a mistake". Fairly certain such admissions are not allowed in the SNP constitution.

    That certainly seems to be the position here...
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    felix said:

    I see the PB Lefties are still very tetchy after the budget - yet more evidence that Ozzy got it right. Oh can they remind us which of the measures Ed Balls has pledged today to reverse? ;)

    So you are confident of a big polling boost then?

    The budget has managed to shift the narrative onto Tory cuts. I really expected something cleverer from Osborne
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @bigjohnowls
    It's his butler's yearly one day holiday.
    ;)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Freggles said:

    The budget has managed to shift the narrative onto Tory cuts. I really expected something cleverer from Osborne

    Ed Balls. "There is none of this budget I would reverse"

    I expected nothing cleverer from Ed...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,772
    Charles said:

    @Charles Here it is I think.

    Paul Johnson's IFS post-budget briefing - Summary

    And here are the key points from the opening statement by Paul Johnson, the Institute for Fiscal Studies director, at the IFS’s post-budget briefing.

    Johnson said, if you consider tax and benefit changes introduced by the coalition, “the poorest have seen the biggest proportionate losses”.

    This is after the 2014 budget, but I don't think there were that many material changes yesterday. It's not the one I say (which was quintiles) but chart 2C has the same message (shown in deciles instead

    https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CCIQFjAA&url=https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/293738/budget_2014_distributional_analysis.pdf&ei=zzcLVfP9DYqAU4rag6gO&usg=AFQjCNHV1GTC4JgKw8gBI6KCe_dXdFW_aA&bvm=bv.88528373,d.d24&cad=rja
    Tell Paul Johnson and the IFS

    Perhaps they will change their findings of today
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,693

    Ignoring posts like Roger's meal with his mate.. and Rosaree's ridiculous posts what actual vibes are you getting re Budget 2015???. I've met lots of people but not a soul has mentioned it in any way whatsoever.

    I phone-canvassed 30-odd this evening who had doorstep-canvassed as undecided. A few said they would vote Labour, a couple said they were Tory, the rest sounded not very interested at all. Nobody mentioned the Budget, either positively or negatively. The one who engaged most interestingly was a woman in her 70s, who compared the current Middle East with Wolf Hall Britain ("we did plenty of beheading, and even demolished holy relics, just like ISIS") and expressed puzzlement that young people didn't seem as scared of the future as most people did when she grew up.
    We young people aren't living under the shadow of THE BOMB. Rightly or wrongly, it doesn't feature in our thoughts.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    What's the Just For Fun reckoning on tonight's Yougov?

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,772
    I think the budget was brilliant myself.

    Especially the IFS analysis aftermath.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,772
    Just for fun tonights YG

    A tie.

    Not a blue one Mr Pulpstar!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,740
    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Charles said:

    IFS says 4 yrs of vicious cuts or 1 yr

    Big boost for Ed


    IFS say lowest paid hardest hit by tax and benefit changes under coalition.

    OBR says immigrants are the main reason for the recovery of the economy

    Link please.

    The charts I've seen show that the richest quintile has done the worst, followed by the poorest quintile.
    Neither is full of swing voters.
    Indeed. It's the "squeezed middle" (the 2nd and third quintiles) that have done by far the best.

    I wonder why that is?

    *innocent face*
    The PAYE army gets out and votes ;)
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited March 2015
    @bigjohnowls
    "Especially the IFS analysis aftermath. "

    It is hardly the major story though? It is only number two on the "Beeb" website, so no one will notice.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,772
    2nd item on News at Ten
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,740
    edited March 2015

    2nd item on News at Ten

    What is ?

    I am on a raid :)
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    New Fred>>>>>
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,772
    edited March 2015
    3rd item

    OBR Roller Coaster under GO

    Lab would cut National Debt to 60% GDP without deep cuts.
  • Edin_RokzEdin_Rokz Posts: 516
    Dair said:

    RobD said:

    Any polls yet??

    You know it says a lot about where we are when there was a Scotland wide poll earlier, it gave 47% SNP to 26% Labour and it has barely been worthy of comment.
    I just wonder how many people said that they will vote SNP to stop a brick being thrown through a window?
This discussion has been closed.