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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON maintain their 14 seat lead on the main Commons seats s

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  • Options
    notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    Lab could end austerity on 7/5/15 and stick within their plans according to IFS.

    75% of welfare cuts fall on workers according to IFS

    You seem remarkably excited by the discovery that Labour would increase borrowing, compared with Osborne. Hadn't you realised that if you borrow more you can spend more, in the short term at least?
    Had you realized that we have much worse cuts to come under the Tories whoever wins the election than those seen so far.

    You expect it will be as obvious where these will fall in the manifesto as the VAT increase in 2010 was?
    Fixed that for you
    Not according to the IFS.

    Only those parties who want to wreck the welfare state to give millionaires more tax cuts for political doctrine reasons would need to make cuts worse than already seen.
    Would that be those tax cuts that are now set 5% higher than all but 39 days of Labours 13 year tenure?
    Absolutely, this point cant be made often enough!!!!!
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    FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Ishmael_X said:

    Scott_P said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    At least their candidates do get attrited, and by them.

    Not exactly

    @GuidoFawkes: It was the Sun wot done for Janice Atkinson: story here >> http://t.co/pmDjPggUFa
    Has David Cameron welcomed her back to the Tory Party yet?
    No.
    An odious piece of gristle in the bean stew of the conservative party is a prime ingredient on UKIP's plate.
    You mean "was a prime ingredient", and you have no business speaking of Mr Bashir in those terms.
    Are you wriggling there?
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,920
    Danny565 said:

    Lab could end austerity on 7/5/15 and stick within their plans according to IFS.

    I don't understand how they've come to this conclusion? The deficit is still rather big. If Labour are going to continue to (foolishly) pledge to balance the books, then I don't understand how significant cuts (or tax rises) would be avoided?

    But in any case, I hope it's right, and Labour wake up and run simply on a straightforward "Stop the Cuts" ticket. It would be rather negative, but atleast it would give them some focus and put in voters' minds a clear reason why they should vote Labour, a damn improvement on the recent weeks' of drift and no clear message of why someone should vote Labour atall.
    Watch channel 4 news on 4+1

    thats what it said
  • Options
    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Ishmael_X said:

    If we are doing moral calculus, one restaurant bill is hardly doing a Lord Taylor of Warwick either. And Atkinson isn't standing as a candidate now either, so I don't see your point there.

    No, you don't see the point.

    I don't know what the facts of the case are, of course, but the allegation made by the Sun against Ms Atkinson, appears to be such that, if it were true, it would be fraud and thus a criminal offence.
    I indeed don't see the point. first because Burley was almost certainly committing crimes under English and French law, and secondly because some forms of misconduct are so revolting that criminality is a side issue.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,920
    £30bn Wow

    Are there enough Masochists to vote for that.

    Obviously golden generation members like flightpath only need to be sadists as they expect to get away scot free but love to see the future generations suffer (presumably?)
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    £12bn is buttons from a £250bn welfare and pensions bill.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913

    Lab could end austerity on 7/5/15 and stick within their plans according to IFS.

    75% of welfare cuts fall on workers according to IFS

    You seem remarkably excited by the discovery that Labour would increase borrowing, compared with Osborne. Hadn't you realised that if you borrow more you can spend more, in the short term at least?
    Had you realized that we have much worse cuts to come under the Tories whoever wins the election than those seen so far.

    You expect it will be as obvious where these will fall in the manifesto as the VAT increase in 2010 was?
    Fixed that for you
    Not according to the IFS.

    Only those parties who want to wreck the welfare state to give millionaires more tax cuts for political doctrine reasons would need to make cuts worse than already seen.
    The conservatives will choose to cut. The others would be compelled to cut against their will by the IMF within 30 months of taking power.
    No need for IMF

    IFS think Lab plans prudent Tory plans vicious dont they?

    The IMF, whatever next?

    Will the Tories start scaremongering again about a credit rating downgrade? Will they say, like they did in 2010, that only they can protect our AAA ratings?

    Oh hang on, what was that? They already lost it. Oh dear.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,240
    Ishmael_X said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    If we are doing moral calculus, one restaurant bill is hardly doing a Lord Taylor of Warwick either. And Atkinson isn't standing as a candidate now either, so I don't see your point there.

    No, you don't see the point.

    I don't know what the facts of the case are, of course, but the allegation made by the Sun against Ms Atkinson, appears to be such that, if it were true, it would be fraud and thus a criminal offence.
    I indeed don't see the point. first because Burley was almost certainly committing crimes under English and French law, and secondly because some forms of misconduct are so revolting that criminality is a side issue.
    Wait, Burley wore a silly outfit. And his behaviour was... worse than criminal...

    Really?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,333
    edited March 2015
    chestnut said:

    £12bn is buttons from a £250bn welfare and pensions bill.

    Scrap free tv licenses, thats $600-700m gone, scale back winter heating allowance and free buss passes...I have got 10% of that already, with zero thinking.

    Unfortunately, the Tories won't repeal Gordon OAP bribes, and Labour "plan" wont save any money just increase paperwork.
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @chestnut
    Try again. Since pensioners are to be protected, the money has to come out of a smaller slice of the budget.
    Go look it up?
  • Options
    DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Dair said:

    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    isam said:

    I recommended selling LibLabCon (for want of a better word, I wouldn't normally use that!) at 588, so that seems to have come my way if anyone did it

    Or you could have simply bought the SNP at 20.5, as some of us recommended here and did ourselves...
    That's one way to extract joy from the fact we may have 40+ SNPers in the Commons.
    Devoutly wishing for something can have unexpected consequences.

    Better together..
    The little englanders do not relish democracy in action
    the lttle Scotlanders do not relish mathematics in action

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/SNP/11483905/Nicola-Sturgeon-admits-independence-oil-figures-were-wrong.html
    Just the opposite. The facts changed. Instead of doing what Labour or Tory do and try and argue black is white, the SNP have just accepted the numbers, adjusted their outlook and moved on.

    Hence : -

    New full-scale Scottish poll from Survation -

    SNP 47.1%
    Labour 28.0%
    Conservatives 14.5%
    Liberal Democrats 4.0%
    UKIP 3.4%
    Greens 2.3%
    The SNP gave a range of figures based on what they perceived. Their perceptions were wrong.
    ie
    ''admit for the first time that the SNP had got its independence predictions for North Sea oil wrong''
    The facts did not change.
    Here is a fact
    ''the growing shortfall in Scotland’s finances is the equivalent of a 17p hike in income tax.''
    and anotherone
    ''Two years ago, the OBR predicted that oil would generate £4.4 billion in 2017/18 but the Scottish Government insisted revenues would be as high as £11.8 billion.''

    ''In an attempt to repair the damage, the pair yesterday published revised figures that estimate oil will generate between £10.2 billion and £25.8 billion more over the next five years than the latest estimates by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).''
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/9922636/Alex-Salmond-plucks-26-billion-of-oil-out-of-thin-air.html
    You need to stop rerunning the Referendum.

    In any case, the alleged hole in Scotland's finances from falling oil revenues would be paid several fold over by ending the subsidy of England's debt mountain, ending the London Subsidy (laughingly called UK Wide Government Spending) and reductions in the bloated Arms budget Scotland is saddled paying.
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,071
    No foreign policy please we're British.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0947ebf8-c7f4-11e4-8210-00144feab7de.html

    Rather a good effort by Philip Stephens behind the FT paywall. Starts off with a nice anecdote from a government official who quickly took the view of the new PM in 2010 that he saw the rest of the world as 'somewhere to go on holiday.'

    The rest of the article is a demolition job of Dave's non-foreign policy. Be it in Europe or elsewhere he's left an empty chair at the global table. The foreign office has become nothing more than an extension of UK plc. At the same time Cameron insists on maintaining a continual at sea nuclear deterrant and aircraft carriers of quetionable use. For what reason though? Presumably because we're British. He also says he wants to stay in the EU but never tells us why.

    Stephens does miss a significant point to my mind though. Whilst this attitude might seem unsurprising for an incurious home counties Tory PM, he makes no mention of the fact that this is a coalition government and one of its two members is the hardcore internationalist Lib Dems. The withdrawl of the UK from world affairs is just another thing for the traditional yellow base to feel disillusioned about.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,920
    edited March 2015
    chestnut said:

    £12bn is buttons from a £250bn welfare and pensions bill.

    Please outline how you would save £12bn from the welfare budget remembering 70% of the £250bn goes to golden generation so presumably cant be cut.

    You need to save £12bn from the remaining £75bn presumably?
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    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    rcs1000 said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    If we are doing moral calculus, one restaurant bill is hardly doing a Lord Taylor of Warwick either. And Atkinson isn't standing as a candidate now either, so I don't see your point there.

    No, you don't see the point.

    I don't know what the facts of the case are, of course, but the allegation made by the Sun against Ms Atkinson, appears to be such that, if it were true, it would be fraud and thus a criminal offence.
    I indeed don't see the point. first because Burley was almost certainly committing crimes under English and French law, and secondly because some forms of misconduct are so revolting that criminality is a side issue.
    Wait, Burley wore a silly outfit. And his behaviour was... worse than criminal...

    Really?
    Burley thought the mass murder of Jews was funny so yes, really.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,240
    Ishmael_X said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    If we are doing moral calculus, one restaurant bill is hardly doing a Lord Taylor of Warwick either. And Atkinson isn't standing as a candidate now either, so I don't see your point there.

    No, you don't see the point.

    I don't know what the facts of the case are, of course, but the allegation made by the Sun against Ms Atkinson, appears to be such that, if it were true, it would be fraud and thus a criminal offence.
    I indeed don't see the point. first because Burley was almost certainly committing crimes under English and French law, and secondly because some forms of misconduct are so revolting that criminality is a side issue.
    Wait, Burley wore a silly outfit. And his behaviour was... worse than criminal...

    Really?
    Burley thought the mass murder of Jews was funny so yes, really.
    Oh, I didn't read his speech where he said that. Could you post a link?
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Dair said:

    the alleged hole in Scotland's finances from falling oil revenues would be paid several fold over

    It's not "alleged". Even Nicola admits it's there

    Why not make it up out of VAT receipts?
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    IFS says 4 yrs of vicious cuts or 1 yr

    Big boost for Ed


    IFS say lowest paid hardest hit by tax and benefit changes under coalition.

    OBR says immigrants are the main reason for the recovery of the economy

    Link please.

    The charts I've seen show that the richest quintile has done the worst, followed by the poorest quintile.
  • Options
    Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    edited March 2015

    £30bn Wow

    Are there enough Masochists to vote for that.

    Obviously golden generation members like flightpath only need to be sadists as they expect to get away scot free but love to see the future generations suffer (presumably?)

    That £30 Billion is £500 for each person in this country per year. Or roughly £1,250 per household. Since some households don't pay any tax it means others will be liable for double.

    Its got to come from somewhere, I don't particularly want it to come from me as I think I can put the money to better use.
  • Options
    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Scott_P said:

    Dair said:

    the alleged hole in Scotland's finances from falling oil revenues would be paid several fold over

    It's not "alleged". Even Nicola admits it's there

    Why not make it up out of VAT receipts?
    Nicola and the SNP have to maintain the line until Independence outside of specific circumstances.

    If they don't abolish the English Subsidy as the first act of an Independent Scottish parliament then a party standing on that issue will romp home.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,034
    Charles said:

    IFS says 4 yrs of vicious cuts or 1 yr

    Big boost for Ed


    IFS say lowest paid hardest hit by tax and benefit changes under coalition.

    OBR says immigrants are the main reason for the recovery of the economy

    Link please.

    The charts I've seen show that the richest quintile has done the worst, followed by the poorest quintile.
    Neither is full of swing voters.
  • Options
    Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409

    No foreign policy please we're British.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0947ebf8-c7f4-11e4-8210-00144feab7de.html

    Rather a good effort by Philip Stephens behind the FT paywall. Starts off with a nice anecdote from a government official who quickly took the view of the new PM in 2010 that he saw the rest of the world as 'somewhere to go on holiday.'

    The rest of the article is a demolition job of Dave's non-foreign policy. Be it in Europe or elsewhere he's left an empty chair at the global table. The foreign office has become nothing more than an extension of UK plc. At the same time Cameron insists on maintaining a continual at sea nuclear deterrant and aircraft carriers of quetionable use. For what reason though? Presumably because we're British. He also says he wants to stay in the EU but never tells us why.

    Stephens does miss a significant point to my mind though. Whilst this attitude might seem unsurprising for an incurious home counties Tory PM, he makes no mention of the fact that this is a coalition government and one of its two members is the hardcore internationalist Lib Dems. The withdrawl of the UK from world affairs is just another thing for the traditional yellow base to feel disillusioned about.

    If they are internationalist, why are they so fixated on an inward looking EU?
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,920
    Charles said:

    IFS says 4 yrs of vicious cuts or 1 yr

    Big boost for Ed


    IFS say lowest paid hardest hit by tax and benefit changes under coalition.

    OBR says immigrants are the main reason for the recovery of the economy

    Link please.

    The charts I've seen show that the richest quintile has done the worst, followed by the poorest quintile.
    Channel 4 news reported it about an hour ago
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,083
    Any guesses on the % of Londoners who thought homosexuality 'morally wrong'??

    'the poll also asked respondents whether they think in general that homosexuality is ‘morally acceptable’ or ‘morally wrong’. What do you think the figures were? Well in most regions of the UK those people who thought homosexuality ‘morally wrong’ sat at around 15 per cent. About what one might have expected. But what do you think the figure was in that enlightened beacon of progressive diversity which is our capital? 1 per cent? 2 per cent?'

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/03/is-londons-diversity-to-blame-for-its-unprogressive-views-on-homosexuality/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,240
    Dair said:

    You need to stop rerunning the Referendum.

    In any case, the alleged hole in Scotland's finances from falling oil revenues would be paid several fold over by ending the subsidy of England's debt mountain, ending the London Subsidy (laughingly called UK Wide Government Spending) and reductions in the bloated Arms budget Scotland is saddled paying.

    Ending the subsidy of Britain's debt mountain?

    The UK borrows for 10 years at 1.8%. What do you think Scotland would be able to borrow at?

    As a comparison, socialist paradise petro-states like Venezuela and Ecuador, which are probably the most apposite comparisons, can only borrow in US Dollars, and pay a rather higher interest rate.
  • Options
    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Charles
    Are many of your friends and relatives using foodbanks, or going hungry?
    Tell them to get in touch and we can organize some second hand clothes for their kids.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,240
    isam said:

    Any guesses on the % of Londoners who thought homosexuality 'morally wrong'??

    'the poll also asked respondents whether they think in general that homosexuality is ‘morally acceptable’ or ‘morally wrong’. What do you think the figures were? Well in most regions of the UK those people who thought homosexuality ‘morally wrong’ sat at around 15 per cent. About what one might have expected. But what do you think the figure was in that enlightened beacon of progressive diversity which is our capital? 1 per cent? 2 per cent?'

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/03/is-londons-diversity-to-blame-for-its-unprogressive-views-on-homosexuality/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

    Which way do you think the correlation runs: high economic output -> intolerence or, intolerence -> high economic output.

  • Options
    Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    edited March 2015
    isam said:

    Any guesses on the % of Londoners who thought homosexuality 'morally wrong'??

    'the poll also asked respondents whether they think in general that homosexuality is ‘morally acceptable’ or ‘morally wrong’. What do you think the figures were? Well in most regions of the UK those people who thought homosexuality ‘morally wrong’ sat at around 15 per cent. About what one might have expected. But what do you think the figure was in that enlightened beacon of progressive diversity which is our capital? 1 per cent? 2 per cent?'

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/03/is-londons-diversity-to-blame-for-its-unprogressive-views-on-homosexuality/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

    This is the sort of thing that makes Guardian readers heads explode. They encourage and welcome vast numbers of immigrants and then to their horror find they've imported a bunch of people whos views are distinctly 1950s.

    They will all start voting UKIP next......
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,920
    Charles said:

    IFS says 4 yrs of vicious cuts or 1 yr

    Big boost for Ed


    IFS say lowest paid hardest hit by tax and benefit changes under coalition.

    OBR says immigrants are the main reason for the recovery of the economy

    Link please.

    The charts I've seen show that the richest quintile has done the worst, followed by the poorest quintile.
    Is it in here?

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/mar/19/george-osbornes-post-budget-inteviews-politics-live-blog
  • Options
    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    edited March 2015
    rcs1000 said:

    Dair said:

    You need to stop rerunning the Referendum.

    In any case, the alleged hole in Scotland's finances from falling oil revenues would be paid several fold over by ending the subsidy of England's debt mountain, ending the London Subsidy (laughingly called UK Wide Government Spending) and reductions in the bloated Arms budget Scotland is saddled paying.

    Ending the subsidy of Britain's debt mountain?

    The UK borrows for 10 years at 1.8%. What do you think Scotland would be able to borrow at?

    As a comparison, socialist paradise petro-states like Venezuela and Ecuador, which are probably the most apposite comparisons, can only borrow in US Dollars, and pay a rather higher interest rate.
    Exactly the same rate as any other North European modern economy.

    And in the long term, that would be a much better rate than England.

    Of course history shows that the borrowing requirements of an Independent Scotland would be negligible.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,240

    Charles said:

    IFS says 4 yrs of vicious cuts or 1 yr

    Big boost for Ed


    IFS say lowest paid hardest hit by tax and benefit changes under coalition.

    OBR says immigrants are the main reason for the recovery of the economy

    Link please.

    The charts I've seen show that the richest quintile has done the worst, followed by the poorest quintile.
    Channel 4 news reported it about an hour ago
    I think the two of you are talking at cross-purposes:

    The richest quintile has done worst for income, but QE has boosted the value of their assets (probably temporarily).
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,920
    @Charles Here it is I think.

    Paul Johnson's IFS post-budget briefing - Summary

    And here are the key points from the opening statement by Paul Johnson, the Institute for Fiscal Studies director, at the IFS’s post-budget briefing.

    Johnson said, if you consider tax and benefit changes introduced by the coalition, “the poorest have seen the biggest proportionate losses”.
  • Options
    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    rcs1000 said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    If we are doing moral calculus, one restaurant bill is hardly doing a Lord Taylor of Warwick either. And Atkinson isn't standing as a candidate now either, so I don't see your point there.

    No, you don't see the point.

    I don't know what the facts of the case are, of course, but the allegation made by the Sun against Ms Atkinson, appears to be such that, if it were true, it would be fraud and thus a criminal offence.
    I indeed don't see the point. first because Burley was almost certainly committing crimes under English and French law, and secondly because some forms of misconduct are so revolting that criminality is a side issue.
    Wait, Burley wore a silly outfit. And his behaviour was... worse than criminal...

    Really?
    Burley thought the mass murder of Jews was funny so yes, really.
    Oh, I didn't read his speech where he said that. Could you post a link?
    You think "A thinks that B" necessarily implies "A has made a speech, linkable to on the interweb, stating that B"? And you are the genius who keeps putting us right about about Ther Science of global warming and the logical fallacies we can't help ourselves from committing?

    If someone hires a Nazi uniform for a friend (he didn't wear one - you don't seem to be very good at ascertaining basic facts despite your devotion to the scientific method), goes to a party where Nazi toasts are given and chants are chanted, and reacts when he's caught out by apologising to the chief Rabbi and popping off to Auschwitz on a journey of self-redemption, then yes: I am confident in stating that, on the balance of probabilities, we are looking at someone who finds the concept of Zyklon-B pretty risible.

    I hope that answers your question.
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    rcs1000 said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    If we are doing moral calculus, one restaurant bill is hardly doing a Lord Taylor of Warwick either. And Atkinson isn't standing as a candidate now either, so I don't see your point there.

    No, you don't see the point.

    I don't know what the facts of the case are, of course, but the allegation made by the Sun against Ms Atkinson, appears to be such that, if it were true, it would be fraud and thus a criminal offence.
    I indeed don't see the point. first because Burley was almost certainly committing crimes under English and French law, and secondly because some forms of misconduct are so revolting that criminality is a side issue.
    Wait, Burley wore a silly outfit. And his behaviour was... worse than criminal...

    Really?
    The French thought it should be investigated under French law.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-stoke-staffordshire-16299035

  • Options
    Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409

    Lab could end austerity on 7/5/15 and stick within their plans according to IFS.

    75% of welfare cuts fall on workers according to IFS

    You seem remarkably excited by the discovery that Labour would increase borrowing, compared with Osborne. Hadn't you realised that if you borrow more you can spend more, in the short term at least?
    Had you realized that we have much worse cuts to come under the Tories whoever wins the election than those seen so far.

    You expect it will be as obvious where these will fall in the manifesto as the VAT increase in 2010 was?
    Fixed that for you
    Not according to the IFS.

    Only those parties who want to wreck the welfare state to give millionaires more tax cuts for political doctrine reasons would need to make cuts worse than already seen.
    The conservatives will choose to cut. The others would be compelled to cut against their will by the IMF within 30 months of taking power.
    No need for IMF

    IFS think Lab plans prudent Tory plans vicious dont they?
    So What, who cares what they think. They are just a think tank. I'm sure there are other think tanks out there who think the osborne plan is reasonable and Labour irresponsible but they won't get breathless headlines on the BBC and Channel 4 news.
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Smarmeron said:

    @chestnut
    Try again. Since pensioners are to be protected, the money has to come out of a smaller slice of the budget.
    Go look it up?

    Freeze Housing Benefit. Apply an annual squeeze to exhorbitant London Housing Benefit.
    Freeze Child Benefit, limit to set number of children, reduce max qualifying age from 20
    Merge Child benefit and Child tax Credit
    Introduce 2 year residency qualifying periods across the full range of benefits
    Rationalise delivery - for example electronic signing at Jobcentres.
    Relocate all existing london functions to the regions
    Reform contributory jobseekers allowance, it's utterly pointless.
    Scrapping class 2 conts should save a few bob in admin.
    Merge the single payment systems for social fund and winter fuel payments and Christmas bonuses

    And that's without looking too deeply.

    It really isn't that hard.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,240
    Dair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Dair said:

    You need to stop rerunning the Referendum.

    In any case, the alleged hole in Scotland's finances from falling oil revenues would be paid several fold over by ending the subsidy of England's debt mountain, ending the London Subsidy (laughingly called UK Wide Government Spending) and reductions in the bloated Arms budget Scotland is saddled paying.

    Ending the subsidy of Britain's debt mountain?

    The UK borrows for 10 years at 1.8%. What do you think Scotland would be able to borrow at?

    As a comparison, socialist paradise petro-states like Venezuela and Ecuador, which are probably the most apposite comparisons, can only borrow in US Dollars, and pay a rather higher interest rate.
    Exactly the same rate as any other North European modern economy.

    And in the long term, that would be a much better rate than England.

    Of course history shows that the borrowing requirements of an Independent Scotland would be negligible.
    Petro-states tend to pay more to borrow because of the volatility of their income streams. Smaller countries tend to pay more to borrow because investors like liquid assets.

    And what history is this of which you refer?
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,083
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Any guesses on the % of Londoners who thought homosexuality 'morally wrong'??

    'the poll also asked respondents whether they think in general that homosexuality is ‘morally acceptable’ or ‘morally wrong’. What do you think the figures were? Well in most regions of the UK those people who thought homosexuality ‘morally wrong’ sat at around 15 per cent. About what one might have expected. But what do you think the figure was in that enlightened beacon of progressive diversity which is our capital? 1 per cent? 2 per cent?'

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/03/is-londons-diversity-to-blame-for-its-unprogressive-views-on-homosexuality/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

    Which way do you think the correlation runs: high economic output -> intolerence or, intolerence -> high economic output.

    I can honestly say I haven't given that a moments thought
  • Options
    Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    chestnut said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @chestnut
    Try again. Since pensioners are to be protected, the money has to come out of a smaller slice of the budget.
    Go look it up?

    Freeze Housing Benefit. Apply an annual squeeze to exhorbitant London Housing Benefit.
    Freeze Child Benefit, limit to set number of children, reduce max qualifying age from 20
    Merge Child benefit and Child tax Credit
    Introduce 2 year residency qualifying periods across the full range of benefits
    Rationalise delivery - for example electronic signing at Jobcentres.
    Relocate all existing london functions to the regions
    Reform contributory jobseekers allowance, it's utterly pointless.
    Scrapping class 2 conts should save a few bob in admin.
    Merge the single payment systems for social fund and winter fuel payments and Christmas bonuses

    And that's without looking too deeply.

    It really isn't that hard.
    Even easier - introduce rent controls with all rents that are more than 67% of the annual minumum wage compulsorily reduced by 5% below inflation per year. You could save the lot on the housing benefit budget without people receiving it losing a penny.
  • Options
    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Even more interesting. The Greens are now the third most popular party in Scotland for the Holyrood List vote. The message "SNP Constituency, Green List" is getting through and getting popular

    Scottish Parliament constituency ballot :

    SNP 49.2% (+1.2)
    Labour 26.9% (-0.8)
    Conservatives 12.9% (+0.2)
    Liberal Democrats 5.0% (+0.3)
    UKIP 2.2% (-0.1)
    Greens 3.1% (-0.6)

    Scottish Parliament regional list ballot :

    SNP 41.3% (+2.7)
    Labour 22.5% (+0.4)
    Greens 12.6% (-0.5)
    Conservatives 11.9% (-0.1)
    Liberal Democrats 5.7% (-0.8)
    UKIP 5.0% (-1.5)
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,240

    rcs1000 said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    If we are doing moral calculus, one restaurant bill is hardly doing a Lord Taylor of Warwick either. And Atkinson isn't standing as a candidate now either, so I don't see your point there.

    No, you don't see the point.

    I don't know what the facts of the case are, of course, but the allegation made by the Sun against Ms Atkinson, appears to be such that, if it were true, it would be fraud and thus a criminal offence.
    I indeed don't see the point. first because Burley was almost certainly committing crimes under English and French law, and secondly because some forms of misconduct are so revolting that criminality is a side issue.
    Wait, Burley wore a silly outfit. And his behaviour was... worse than criminal...

    Really?
    The French thought it should be investigated under French law.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-stoke-staffordshire-16299035

    Do you support locking people up for wearing silly costumes?

    Do you believe someone wearing a Ku Klux Klan outfit at a fancy dress party is guilty of a crime of moral turpitude?
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,877


    UK National Debt is 1.5 Trillion pounds

    At 2-3% interest that is £30-45 billion pounds a year interest payments

    If the markets lose confidence then that interest rate goes up to 5 or 7% which means £75-105 Billion a year in interest.

    Sorry but Browns profiligacy ensured a national debt which means the moneymen have the government by the balls whoever is in power, even if it were Balls.

    Nope. Not hat serious.

    I believe that about 75% of the gilts in issue are at a fixed rate.

  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,920
    chestnut said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @chestnut
    Try again. Since pensioners are to be protected, the money has to come out of a smaller slice of the budget.
    Go look it up?

    Freeze Housing Benefit. Apply an annual squeeze to exhorbitant London Housing Benefit.
    Freeze Child Benefit, limit to set number of children, reduce max qualifying age from 20
    Merge Child benefit and Child tax Credit
    Introduce 2 year residency qualifying periods across the full range of benefits
    Rationalise delivery - for example electronic signing at Jobcentres.
    Relocate all existing london functions to the regions
    Reform contributory jobseekers allowance, it's utterly pointless.
    Scrapping class 2 conts should save a few bob in admin.
    Merge the single payment systems for social fund and winter fuel payments and Christmas bonuses

    And that's without looking too deeply.

    It really isn't that hard.
    Hopefully the Tories will tell us if that is what they plan and if that gets anywhere near £12bn i doubt it myself.

    At least if they are transparent people can vote accordingly.
  • Options
    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @chestnut

    Hard enough that Ozzie and Dave don't want to talk about it till after the election apparently?
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,877
    Sorry that last comment was me.

    Grrrrr Android.
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,071
    Dair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Dair said:

    You need to stop rerunning the Referendum.

    In any case, the alleged hole in Scotland's finances from falling oil revenues would be paid several fold over by ending the subsidy of England's debt mountain, ending the London Subsidy (laughingly called UK Wide Government Spending) and reductions in the bloated Arms budget Scotland is saddled paying.

    Ending the subsidy of Britain's debt mountain?

    The UK borrows for 10 years at 1.8%. What do you think Scotland would be able to borrow at?

    As a comparison, socialist paradise petro-states like Venezuela and Ecuador, which are probably the most apposite comparisons, can only borrow in US Dollars, and pay a rather higher interest rate.
    Exactly the same rate as any other North European modern economy.

    And in the long term, that would be a much better rate than England.

    Of course history shows that the borrowing requirements of an Independent Scotland would be negligible.
    Er...... Scotland would be a new sovereign (without its own currency?) and an unknown quantity. Not sure what history you are referring to.
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    If we are doing moral calculus, one restaurant bill is hardly doing a Lord Taylor of Warwick either. And Atkinson isn't standing as a candidate now either, so I don't see your point there.

    No, you don't see the point.

    I don't know what the facts of the case are, of course, but the allegation made by the Sun against Ms Atkinson, appears to be such that, if it were true, it would be fraud and thus a criminal offence.
    I indeed don't see the point. first because Burley was almost certainly committing crimes under English and French law, and secondly because some forms of misconduct are so revolting that criminality is a side issue.
    Wait, Burley wore a silly outfit. And his behaviour was... worse than criminal...

    Really?
    The French thought it should be investigated under French law.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-stoke-staffordshire-16299035

    Do you support locking people up for wearing silly costumes?

    Do you believe someone wearing a Ku Klux Klan outfit at a fancy dress party is guilty of a crime of moral turpitude?
    You said worse than criminal,I'm saying under French law,he could have been.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Er...... Scotland would be a new sovereign (without its own currency?) and an unknown quantity. Not sure what history you are referring to.

    It's all in Alex Salmond's entirely made up book
  • Options
    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    edited March 2015
    rcs1000 said:

    Dair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Dair said:

    You need to stop rerunning the Referendum.

    In any case, the alleged hole in Scotland's finances from falling oil revenues would be paid several fold over by ending the subsidy of England's debt mountain, ending the London Subsidy (laughingly called UK Wide Government Spending) and reductions in the bloated Arms budget Scotland is saddled paying.

    Ending the subsidy of Britain's debt mountain?

    The UK borrows for 10 years at 1.8%. What do you think Scotland would be able to borrow at?

    As a comparison, socialist paradise petro-states like Venezuela and Ecuador, which are probably the most apposite comparisons, can only borrow in US Dollars, and pay a rather higher interest rate.
    Exactly the same rate as any other North European modern economy.

    And in the long term, that would be a much better rate than England.

    Of course history shows that the borrowing requirements of an Independent Scotland would be negligible.
    Petro-states tend to pay more to borrow because of the volatility of their income streams. Smaller countries tend to pay more to borrow because investors like liquid assets.

    And what history is this of which you refer?
    Love the attempted weasel words. "Petro-state" I suppose Norway with its 30% of economy reliant on oil is one of your Petro-states?

    What does that make England? It is over-reliant on Casino Banking which makes up as larger a portion of its economy as oil does in Scotland. Oil is down below 10% of the Scottish economy on the new numbers. Casino Banking is still 15% to 20% depending on your measure.

    Of course the big difference here is that there is NOTHING not one thing that requires Casino Banks to be based in London. You can't drill Scottish oil from another country.

    You do understand that this is an argument that's already been had and the Unionists lost? Polling on the issue shows that Scots generally do not believe the lies that come from London. They don't believe they will end up as the Pakistan of Europe. Even if you had the evidence and proof that you clearly lack, you still can't achieve anything with the line of thinking.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,920
    IFS are a highly highly respected think tank

    In fact UK think tank of the year 2014.

    If you have to attack the IFS and the OBR you have lost the argument IMO
  • Options
    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Dair said:

    The message "SNP Constituency, Green List" is getting through and getting popular

    Catchy :)

  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Ishmael_X said:

    If we are doing moral calculus, one restaurant bill is hardly doing a Lord Taylor of Warwick either. And Atkinson isn't standing as a candidate now either, so I don't see your point there.

    No, you don't see the point.

    I don't know what the facts of the case are, of course, but the allegation made by the Sun against Ms Atkinson, appears to be such that, if it were true, it would be attempted fraud and thus a criminal offence. Of course there may be a perfectly innocent explanation, but UKIP's own statement is pretty strong.
    The odd thing is that the Sun story says that it was her aide who paid the bill & then was filmed "renegotiating" the bill. So where's the smoking gun?
  • Options
    DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Dair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Dair said:

    You need to stop rerunning the Referendum.

    In any case, the alleged hole in Scotland's finances from falling oil revenues would be paid several fold over by ending the subsidy of England's debt mountain, ending the London Subsidy (laughingly called UK Wide Government Spending) and reductions in the bloated Arms budget Scotland is saddled paying.

    Ending the subsidy of Britain's debt mountain?

    The UK borrows for 10 years at 1.8%. What do you think Scotland would be able to borrow at?

    As a comparison, socialist paradise petro-states like Venezuela and Ecuador, which are probably the most apposite comparisons, can only borrow in US Dollars, and pay a rather higher interest rate.
    Exactly the same rate as any other North European modern economy.

    And in the long term, that would be a much better rate than England.

    Of course history shows that the borrowing requirements of an Independent Scotland would be negligible.
    Er...... Scotland would be a new sovereign (without its own currency?) and an unknown quantity. Not sure what history you are referring to.
    There would be nothing new about the Scottish economy. It is already a known quantity with known output figures and quanta. The drivel arguments equating Scotland to a newly independent African state fall on deaf ears yet still Loyalists insist on proferring them.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,333
    edited March 2015
    Smarmeron said:

    @chestnut

    Hard enough that Ozzie and Dave don't want to talk about it till after the election apparently?

    I am still waiting to see Darling's plan for deficit reduction....I think never got past the blank paper stage. I mean I guess this time Labour have got two approaches. BANKERS BONUS TAX and MANSION TAX. Unfortunately, they have already spent the money many times over on 20 different things.

    I await Labour's deficit reduction plan with much anticipation. Simply saying our cuts will be less nasty than the Tories cuts doesn't wash.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380

    Ignoring posts like Roger's meal with his mate.. and Rosaree's ridiculous posts what actual vibes are you getting re Budget 2015???. I've met lots of people but not a soul has mentioned it in any way whatsoever.

    I phone-canvassed 30-odd this evening who had doorstep-canvassed as undecided. A few said they would vote Labour, a couple said they were Tory, the rest sounded not very interested at all. Nobody mentioned the Budget, either positively or negatively. The one who engaged most interestingly was a woman in her 70s, who compared the current Middle East with Wolf Hall Britain ("we did plenty of beheading, and even demolished holy relics, just like ISIS") and expressed puzzlement that young people didn't seem as scared of the future as most people did when she grew up.
  • Options
    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    An independent Scotland wanted to keep the Pound, so the SNP presumably did not believe they could set up a new currency and borrow easily.

  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Pulpstar said:

    Charles said:

    IFS says 4 yrs of vicious cuts or 1 yr

    Big boost for Ed


    IFS say lowest paid hardest hit by tax and benefit changes under coalition.

    OBR says immigrants are the main reason for the recovery of the economy

    Link please.

    The charts I've seen show that the richest quintile has done the worst, followed by the poorest quintile.
    Neither is full of swing voters.
    Indeed. It's the "squeezed middle" (the 2nd and third quintiles) that have done by far the best.

    I wonder why that is?

    *innocent face*
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,920

    Smarmeron said:

    @chestnut

    Hard enough that Ozzie and Dave don't want to talk about it till after the election apparently?

    I am still waiting to see Darling's plan for deficit reduction....I think never got past the blank paper stage. I mean I guess this time Labour have got two approaches. BANKERS BONUS TAX and MANSION TAX. Unfortunately, they have already spent the money many times over on 20 different things.

    I await Labour's deficit reduction plan with much anticipation. Simply saying our cuts will be less nasty than the Tories cuts doesn't wash.
    But Lab dont need to make any cuts according to IFS on C4
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Smarmeron said:

    @chestnut

    Hard enough that Ozzie and Dave don't want to talk about it till after the election apparently?

    Why would you want to show your hand too early?

    Labour showed theirs on funding ideas, and Osborne promptly stole the money (pension allowances, banker levy).

    Some things need to to be kept back.


  • Options
    DairDair Posts: 6,108


    An independent Scotland wanted to keep the Pound, so the SNP presumably did not believe they could set up a new currency and borrow easily.

    That depends how you expect the negotiations would play out.

    My belief is that the negotiations would "break down" allowing Scotland to walk away with no English Subsidy to pay and end up being "forced" to launch a new currency.

    The main challenge would be much like that of Norway, managing to keep a lid on the appreciation but all in all I would expect Scotland would find a way.
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,071
    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Dair said:

    You need to stop rerunning the Referendum.

    In any case, the alleged hole in Scotland's finances from falling oil revenues would be paid several fold over by ending the subsidy of England's debt mountain, ending the London Subsidy (laughingly called UK Wide Government Spending) and reductions in the bloated Arms budget Scotland is saddled paying.

    Ending the subsidy of Britain's debt mountain?

    The UK borrows for 10 years at 1.8%. What do you think Scotland would be able to borrow at?

    As a comparison, socialist paradise petro-states like Venezuela and Ecuador, which are probably the most apposite comparisons, can only borrow in US Dollars, and pay a rather higher interest rate.
    Exactly the same rate as any other North European modern economy.

    And in the long term, that would be a much better rate than England.

    Of course history shows that the borrowing requirements of an Independent Scotland would be negligible.
    Er...... Scotland would be a new sovereign (without its own currency?) and an unknown quantity. Not sure what history you are referring to.
    There would be nothing new about the Scottish economy. It is already a known quantity with known output figures and quanta. The drivel arguments equating Scotland to a newly independent African state fall on deaf ears yet still Loyalists insist on proferring them.
    There WOULD be something new about a Scottish sovereign. Countries which have a long history of solvency are treated favourably by the bond market. Scotland as a new sovereign would be in a different category. I suspect borrowing wouldn't be too much of a problem though if you could sort the currency situation out.
  • Options
    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    http://www.breitbart.com/london/2015/03/18/do-as-i-say-not-as-i-fly-tory-climate-change-minister-racks-up-22k-bill-on-international-flights/

    DO AS I SAY, NOT AS I FLY: TORY CLIMATE CHANGE MINISTER RACKS UP £22K BILL ON INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS.....weeks before standing down as a minister and announcing his retirement from politics, the Sun has reported.

    Well thats one way of taking ones holidays.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    IFS says 4 yrs of vicious cuts or 1 yr

    Big boost for Ed


    IFS say lowest paid hardest hit by tax and benefit changes under coalition.

    OBR says immigrants are the main reason for the recovery of the economy

    Link please.

    The charts I've seen show that the richest quintile has done the worst, followed by the poorest quintile.
    Channel 4 news reported it about an hour ago
    Well then you'll be able to find the evidence easily.
  • Options
    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    edited March 2015

    Smarmeron said:

    @chestnut

    Hard enough that Ozzie and Dave don't want to talk about it till after the election apparently?

    I am still waiting to see Darling's plan for deficit reduction....I think never got past the blank paper stage. I mean I guess this time Labour have got two approaches. BANKERS BONUS TAX and MANSION TAX. Unfortunately, they have already spent the money many times over on 20 different things.

    I await Labour's deficit reduction plan with much anticipation. Simply saying our cuts will be less nasty than the Tories cuts doesn't wash.
    But Lab dont need to make any cuts according to IFS on C4
    We've known that since the IFS said the SNP were right last week. Albeit suggesting £165bn of additional spending rather than £180bn was the way to go.
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    But Lab dont need to make any cuts according to IFS on C4

    So, where is the money coming from?

    Debt or taxes?
  • Options
    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited March 2015
    @chestnut
    "Some things need to to be kept back."

    You mean like a secret? Strange, after the budget, there was a firm conviction here that there was no secret?

  • Options
    DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Dair said:

    You need to stop rerunning the Referendum.

    In any case, the alleged hole in Scotland's finances from falling oil revenues would be paid several fold over by ending the subsidy of England's debt mountain, ending the London Subsidy (laughingly called UK Wide Government Spending) and reductions in the bloated Arms budget Scotland is saddled paying.

    Ending the subsidy of Britain's debt mountain?

    The UK borrows for 10 years at 1.8%. What do you think Scotland would be able to borrow at?

    As a comparison, socialist paradise petro-states like Venezuela and Ecuador, which are probably the most apposite comparisons, can only borrow in US Dollars, and pay a rather higher interest rate.
    Exactly the same rate as any other North European modern economy.

    And in the long term, that would be a much better rate than England.

    Of course history shows that the borrowing requirements of an Independent Scotland would be negligible.
    Er...... Scotland would be a new sovereign (without its own currency?) and an unknown quantity. Not sure what history you are referring to.
    There would be nothing new about the Scottish economy. It is already a known quantity with known output figures and quanta. The drivel arguments equating Scotland to a newly independent African state fall on deaf ears yet still Loyalists insist on proferring them.
    There WOULD be something new about a Scottish sovereign. Countries which have a long history of solvency are treated favourably by the bond market. Scotland as a new sovereign would be in a different category. I suspect borrowing wouldn't be too much of a problem though if you could sort the currency situation out.
    National credit ratings are not like personal credit ratings. The vast bulk of the work done by the ratings agencies is based on future expectations, quite different to how personal ratings work - based entirely on past history.

    Attempts to relate National considerations to personal ones are bizarre. Its also dangerous as we can see in the apparent public perception that National Debt somehow needs to be "Paid Back" like a Credit card. It doesn't. It can be eliminated through Inflation and/or Growth and never repaid.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Smarmeron said:

    @Charles
    Are many of your friends and relatives using foodbanks, or going hungry?
    Tell them to get in touch and we can organize some second hand clothes for their kids.

    Food banks not so much.

    But we spend a lot of time and effort on adult literacy, recidivism, breaking down gang culture, and education.

    I'm going to post this link, because it is an absolutely phenomenal organisation that we backed when it was a start up. Please look at some of the videos on the site.

    http://readeasy.org.uk/
  • Options
    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited March 2015
    @chestnut
    And before you grace me with another comment, try understanding that Ozzie delivered a budget speech yesterday, not a party manifesto.
    It may have sounded like one, but I am sure even he wouldn't stoop so low*.
    *(actually, the slimy little sh*t could limbo dance under a snake!)
  • Options
    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @bigjohnowls

    'IFS think Lab plans prudent Tory plans vicious dont they?'

    Since when did the IFS supply the money to fund this country's deficit?
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    IFS says 4 yrs of vicious cuts or 1 yr

    Big boost for Ed


    IFS say lowest paid hardest hit by tax and benefit changes under coalition.

    OBR says immigrants are the main reason for the recovery of the economy

    Link please.

    The charts I've seen show that the richest quintile has done the worst, followed by the poorest quintile.
    Is it in here?

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/mar/19/george-osbornes-post-budget-inteviews-politics-live-blog
    why don't you have a look and tell me.
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    @Roger

    The "as it used to be" was just a bad patch that lasted about 30 years, and ended about 15 years ago. Liverpool is manifestly returning to what it previously was, one of the great cities of the world.
  • Options
    Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    Charles said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Charles
    Are many of your friends and relatives using foodbanks, or going hungry?
    Tell them to get in touch and we can organize some second hand clothes for their kids.

    Food banks not so much.

    But we spend a lot of time and effort on adult literacy, recidivism, breaking down gang culture, and education.

    I'm going to post this link, because it is an absolutely phenomenal organisation that we backed when it was a start up. Please look at some of the videos on the site.

    http://readeasy.org.uk/
    Whats wrong with kids wearing second hand clothes. My kids have always worn a fair chunk of second hand clothes and handme downs. Often hardly worn. The sad thing is that when they grow out of them its really hard to find anyone who wants them (free). Basically all too proud.

    As for food banks. Got my own. Called an allotment and a chicken coop.

  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Smarmeron said:

    You mean like a secret? Strange, after the budget, there was a firm conviction here that there was no secret?

    There must obviously be things that are being kept back for manifestos among other things. Wouldn't you be disappointed if Ed had shown his full hand already?

    If you read between the lines - digital tax returns, streamlined single universal credit, abolition of the class 2 NI system, NHS records online, car tax disc scrapped and online, virtual scrapping of ISAs - it's fairly clear that there will be a big modernisation and rationalisation project within the civil service.

  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,027
    Any polls yet??
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    @Charles Here it is I think.

    Paul Johnson's IFS post-budget briefing - Summary

    And here are the key points from the opening statement by Paul Johnson, the Institute for Fiscal Studies director, at the IFS’s post-budget briefing.

    Johnson said, if you consider tax and benefit changes introduced by the coalition, “the poorest have seen the biggest proportionate losses”.

    This is after the 2014 budget, but I don't think there were that many material changes yesterday. It's not the one I say (which was quintiles) but chart 2C has the same message (shown in deciles instead

    https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CCIQFjAA&url=https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/293738/budget_2014_distributional_analysis.pdf&ei=zzcLVfP9DYqAU4rag6gO&usg=AFQjCNHV1GTC4JgKw8gBI6KCe_dXdFW_aA&bvm=bv.88528373,d.d24&cad=rja
  • Options
    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited March 2015
    @Dair

    'My belief is that the negotiations would "break down" allowing Scotland to walk away with no English Subsidy to pay and end up being "forced" to launch a new currency.'

    If that happened rUK wouldn't need to pay any Scottish subsidy either.
  • Options
    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    RobD said:

    Any polls yet??

    You know it says a lot about where we are when there was a Scotland wide poll earlier, it gave 47% SNP to 26% Labour and it has barely been worthy of comment.
  • Options
    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @chestnut
    I repeat again, it was a BUDGET, not a MANIFESTO!
    Or at least, that is how it is supposed to work .
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Charles
    Are many of your friends and relatives using foodbanks, or going hungry?
    Tell them to get in touch and we can organize some second hand clothes for their kids.

    Food banks not so much.

    But we spend a lot of time and effort on adult literacy, recidivism, breaking down gang culture, and education.

    I'm going to post this link, because it is an absolutely phenomenal organisation that we backed when it was a start up. Please look at some of the videos on the site.

    http://readeasy.org.uk/
    Whats wrong with kids wearing second hand clothes. My kids have always worn a fair chunk of second hand clothes and handme downs. Often hardly worn. The sad thing is that when they grow out of them its really hard to find anyone who wants them (free). Basically all too proud.

    As for food banks. Got my own. Called an allotment and a chicken coop.

    My daughter is currently wearing her great aunt's hand me downs...
  • Options
    FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Smarmeron said:

    @chestnut
    And before you grace me with another comment, try understanding that Ozzie delivered a budget speech yesterday, not a party manifesto.
    It may have sounded like one, but I am sure even he wouldn't stoop so low*.
    *(actually, the slimy little sh*t could limbo dance under a snake!)

    Wake up - it was Brown who ruined our finances.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,538
    Wow, brave start to Philips program. Looks hopeful.
  • Options
    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited March 2015
    @Flightpath
    "Wake up - it was Brown who ruined our finances. "

    The world's finances?
    Grow up.
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited March 2015
    Smarmeron said:

    @chestnut
    I repeat again, it was a BUDGET, not a MANIFESTO!
    Or at least, that is how it is supposed to work .

    "The Chancellor used his hour-long speech to set out what would be Labour’s strategy for an election campaign, focusing on persuading voters that Gordon Brown had successfully navigated Britain through the worst of the recession.

    But the Conservatives branded it the “empty Budget”, with key decisions being delayed until after polling day."

    March 2010.

    They all do it.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,034
    chestnut said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @chestnut
    I repeat again, it was a BUDGET, not a MANIFESTO!
    Or at least, that is how it is supposed to work .

    "The Chancellor used his hour-long speech to set out what would be Labour’s strategy for an election campaign, focusing on persuading voters that Gordon Brown had successfully navigated Britain through the worst of the recession.

    But the Conservatives branded it the “empty Budget”, with key decisions being delayed until after polling day."

    March 2010.

    They all do it.
    Deja vu
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @chestnut
    So, we can brand Ozzie's attempt as empty as well then?
    Just a blowing off of rectal gasses by a clueless little posh boy?

    "Just vote for it, you don't need to know what you are voting for"
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    FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Ishmael_X said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    If we are doing moral calculus, one restaurant bill is hardly doing a Lord Taylor of Warwick either. And Atkinson isn't standing as a candidate now either, so I don't see your point there.

    No, you don't see the point.

    I don't know what the facts of the case are, of course, but the allegation made by the Sun against Ms Atkinson, appears to be such that, if it were true, it would be fraud and thus a criminal offence.
    I indeed don't see the point. first because Burley was almost certainly committing crimes under English and French law, and secondly because some forms of misconduct are so revolting that criminality is a side issue.
    Wait, Burley wore a silly outfit. And his behaviour was... worse than criminal...

    Really?
    Burley thought the mass murder of Jews was funny so yes, really.
    Oh, I didn't read his speech where he said that. Could you post a link?
    You think "A thinks that B" necessarily implies "A has made a speech, linkable to on the interweb, stating that B"? And you are the genius who keeps putting us right about about Ther Science of global warming and the logical fallacies we can't help ourselves from committing?

    If someone hires a Nazi uniform for a friend (he didn't wear one - you don't seem to be very good at ascertaining basic facts despite your devotion to the scientific method), goes to a party where Nazi toasts are given and chants are chanted, and reacts when he's caught out by apologising to the chief Rabbi and popping off to Auschwitz on a journey of self-redemption, then yes: I am confident in stating that, on the balance of probabilities, we are looking at someone who finds the concept of Zyklon-B pretty risible.

    I hope that answers your question.
    It was well answered. So good I'm sure Mr X will be delighted to hear your explanation of Ed Balls dressing up in a nazi uniform as well.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    I see the PB Lefties are still very tetchy after the budget - yet more evidence that Ozzy got it right. Oh can they remind us which of the measures Ed Balls has pledged today to reverse? ;)
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,333
    The weirdest headline on the front of the FT....

    Osborne accused of pork barrel politics over funds to fight kebab-stealing seagulls.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    felix said:

    I see the PB Lefties are still very tetchy after the budget - yet more evidence that Ozzy got it right.

    It's quite spectacular. I believe "frothing" is the appropriate term
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,030
    Good evening, everyone.

    Spreads are pretty close to my guesses, though I think I have UKIP doing worse, and the SNP perhaps better.
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @felix
    How do you know Ozzie got it right, when even the financial experts can't work out where he is getting the savings from?
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    FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Your link is interesting, not just for the gurning Farage in the photos but the two ladies he is flanked by in both.
    Atkinson and James. Both selected as candidates for seats in 2015 general election and now both of them standing down after being selected. In James' case just hours after making a speech at the UKIP conference.
    Farage is getting positively Brownian in the Photo-op Of Death stakes.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Smarmeron said:

    @chestnut
    So, we can brand Ozzie's attempt as empty as well then?
    Just a blowing off of rectal gasses by a clueless little posh boy?

    "Just vote for it, you don't need to know what you are voting for"

    A good record means a blank sheet of paper will be trusted. A bad record means a blank sheet of paper will not.

    Osborne's record is good. Balls was one of Brown's apprentices.

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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,027
    edited March 2015
    Dair said:

    RobD said:

    Any polls yet??

    You know it says a lot about where we are when there was a Scotland wide poll earlier, it gave 47% SNP to 26% Labour and it has barely been worthy of comment.
    If it didn't show a Tory surge, what does it matter??!
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,027

    The weirdest headline on the front of the FT....

    Osborne accused of pork barrel politics over funds to fight kebab-stealing seagulls.

    More worried about glasses-stealing crows.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Not that anyone is counting...

    @GoodallGiles: #Ukip has now suspended 18 councillors, 14 candidates, 2 MEPs, 1 national secretary, 1 youth sec, 1 Scottish chair & an entire local branch
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    FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    isam said:

    I recommended selling LibLabCon (for want of a better word, I wouldn't normally use that!) at 588, so that seems to have come my way if anyone did it

    Or you could have simply bought the SNP at 20.5, as some of us recommended here and did ourselves...
    That's one way to extract joy from the fact we may have 40+ SNPers in the Commons.
    Devoutly wishing for something can have unexpected consequences.

    Better together..
    The little englanders do not relish democracy in action
    the lttle Scotlanders do not relish mathematics in action

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/SNP/11483905/Nicola-Sturgeon-admits-independence-oil-figures-were-wrong.html
    Just the opposite. The facts changed. Instead of doing what Labour or Tory do and try and argue black is white, the SNP have just accepted the numbers, adjusted their outlook and moved on.

    Hence : -

    New full-scale Scottish poll from Survation -

    SNP 47.1%
    Labour 28.0%
    Conservatives 14.5%
    Liberal Democrats 4.0%
    UKIP 3.4%
    Greens 2.3%
    The SNP gave a range of figures based on what they perceived. Their perceptions were wrong.
    ie
    ''admit for the first time that the SNP had got its independence predictions for North Sea oil wrong''
    The facts did not change.
    Here is a fact
    ''the growing shortfall in Scotland’s finances is the equivalent of a 17p hike in income tax.''
    and anotherone
    ''Two years ago, the OBR predicted that oil would generate £4.4 billion in 2017/18 but the Scottish Government insisted revenues would be as high as £11.8 billion.''

    ''In an attempt to repair the damage, the pair yesterday published revised figures that estimate oil will generate between £10.2 billion and £25.8 billion more over the next five years than the latest estimates by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).''
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/9922636/Alex-Salmond-plucks-26-billion-of-oil-out-of-thin-air.html
    You need to stop rerunning the Referendum.

    In any case, the alleged hole in Scotland's finances from falling oil revenues would be paid several fold over by ending the subsidy of England's debt mountain, ending the London Subsidy (laughingly called UK Wide Government Spending) and reductions in the bloated Arms budget Scotland is saddled paying.
    You are amusing. Although since your grasp of reality is so unhinged I will suggest to everyone we do not laugh.
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    perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    MikeK said:

    http://www.breitbart.com/london/2015/03/18/do-as-i-say-not-as-i-fly-tory-climate-change-minister-racks-up-22k-bill-on-international-flights/

    DO AS I SAY, NOT AS I FLY: TORY CLIMATE CHANGE MINISTER RACKS UP £22K BILL ON INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS.....weeks before standing down as a minister and announcing his retirement from politics, the Sun has reported.

    Well thats one way of taking ones holidays.

    More fruitcake hysterics.

This discussion has been closed.