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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON maintain their 14 seat lead on the main Commons seats spread market

Meanwhile SPIN has now introduced a range of seat markets which take into account the second placed party. Basically you have a spread from 0 to 25 with the top figure for the winner and 10 for the second place.

Read the full story here

Sunil_Prasannan

Labour revival, albeit in part-ELBOW for the 7 polls so far this week:

Lab 34.1
Con 33.3
UKIP 13.4
LD 7.9
Green 5.8

Lab lead 0.8% - was 0.0% week-ending Sunday 15th March, and 0.3% 8th March!

SandyRentool

I think the Kippers could grab 2nd in my patch (Bishop Auckland). Town mayor was a recent high-profile defector to the Kippers, and the opposition vote was formerly spread between LD and Con.

RobD

Second!

SimonStClare

Ref: Spread markets – are these the bets that can be bought and sold as and when?

Pulpstar

SimonStClare said:

Ref: Spread markets – are these the bets that can be bought and sold as and when?

Yes

Scott_P

SimonStClare said:

Ref: Spread markets – are these the bets that can be bought and sold as and when?

In theory, yes, but be careful

The Spread firms have a nasty habit of suspending markets just when it would suit you most to trade out

OblitusSumMe

The mid-points of these spreads add up to 634.4, which is a bit high given the 632 seats on offer and the chance of Galloway holding on in Bradford West. Do they count the Speaker as a Conservative for this total, or should he also be excluded from the number available?

This suggests that most punters have sought to buy the party they think will outperform the spread, and more value exists in identifying the party you think will underperform the current prices.

Scott_P

Dan Hodges reckons Ed might not win...

@TeleComment: If David Cameron wins on Lynton Crosby's ticket, it will be open season on all the old Tory values, says @DPJHodges http://t.co/QuXxyl9oq3

SimonStClare

@Pulpstar & @Scott_P Many thanks ftr! – I must admit I thought most of these markets had been withdrawn a while ago.

RobD

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/science/science-news/11480732/Britons-still-live-in-Anglo-Saxon-tribal-kingdoms-Oxford-University-finds.html

One for SeanT, I know he loves this stuff, and it is a fascinating study!

isam

I recommended selling LibLabCon (for want of a better word, I wouldn't normally use that!) at 588, so that seems to have come my way if anyone did it

Also UKIP x4 seems to add up to more than the Lib Dem quotes.. everyone tells me I have had a shocking bet there...

Plato

I really don't like TimM and his carping - this sums him up

I found the article noteworthy for two reasons. First, because as well as being one of Britain’s foremost political commentators, Tim Montgomerie reflects the views of a significant element of the Conservative party. And second, because until today I thought this “we must be careful not to win the wrong way” nonsense was the preserve of the Labour party.

Scott_P said:

Dan Hodges reckons Ed might not win...

@TeleComment: If David Cameron wins on Lynton Crosby's ticket, it will be open season on all the old Tory values, says @DPJHodges http://t.co/QuXxyl9oq3

Scott_P

Plato said:

I really don't like TimM and his carping - this sums him up

"Cameron can't win, because he's not IDS" says Continuity IDS...

Plato

Quite telegraph.co.uk/finance/budget/11483301/Sketch-Danny-Alexander-enjoyed-writing-the-Budget-so-much...-that-today-hes-written-another-one.html

I know what I’m about to tell you sounds mad. But look at it from Danny Alexander’s point of view. Seven weeks from now, he won’t be a minister any more. He may not even be an MP. This, almost certainly, was his last chance to realise a lifelong dream. So this morning, less than 24 hours after the Budget, he went to the Commons to present a Budget of his own.

Now, you may be thinking, “Hang on a minute. Danny Alexander is Chief Secretary to the Treasury. He co-wrote the Budget.” And you’d be right. He confirmed this to a bewildered House. “The policy measures in the Budget were ones that I helped put together on an equal measure with the Chancellor,” he said proudly, “and I will be voting in favour of all the Budget resolutions.”

And yet here he was, at the exact same time, telling the House how he’d actually prefer to do it all differently. “To those asking whether there is another way,” he cried, “I say, ‘Yes – there is a better way!’” A better way than the Budget he’d co-written, and was still firmly intending to vote for.

Pulpstar

isam said:

I recommended selling LibLabCon (for want of a better word, I wouldn't normally use that!) at 588, so that seems to have come my way if anyone did it

Also UKIP x4 seems to add up to more than the Lib Dem quotes.. everyone tells me I have had a shocking bet there...

UKIP has a body 3 blocks high and a tail a mile long.

Richard_Nabavi

isam said:

I recommended selling LibLabCon (for want of a better word, I wouldn't normally use that!) at 588, so that seems to have come my way if anyone did it

Or you could have simply bought the SNP at 20.5, as some of us recommended here and did ourselves...

Pulpstar

Richard_Nabavi said:

isam said:

I recommended selling LibLabCon (for want of a better word, I wouldn't normally use that!) at 588, so that seems to have come my way if anyone did it

Or you could have simply bought the SNP, as some of us did...

Yes, missed that one.

At least I didn't sell them at 20 though

TGOHF

Nasty right wing press out to get Burnham

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/mar/18/key-labour-nhs-pledge-impossible-to-deliver-says-influential-thinktank

"One of Labour’s key NHS election pledges, designed to protect services from being privatised, has been rejected as impossible to deliver by the King’s Fund.

The influential health thinktank has warned that it would be extremely unlikely that a Labour government could implement Andy Burnham’s promise to exempt the NHS from EU procurement and competition rules."

RobD

Richard_Nabavi said:

isam said:

I recommended selling LibLabCon (for want of a better word, I wouldn't normally use that!) at 588, so that seems to have come my way if anyone did it

Or you could have simply bought the SNP at 20.5, as some of us recommended here and did ourselves...

That's one way to extract joy from the fact we may have 40+ SNPers in the Commons.

Barnesian

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Labour revival, albeit in part-ELBOW for the 7 polls so far this week:

Lab 34.1
Con 33.3
UKIP 13.4
LD 7.9
Green 5.8

Lab lead 0.8% - was 0.0% week-ending Sunday 15th March, and 0.3% 8th March!

It looks like a small weakening of UKIP and Green and a slight strengthening of Labour.

In my switching model, this has the biggest effect in Scotland even though I haven't altered the proportion of 2010 vote that SNP takes from Lab and LibDem. The small increase in Lab vote has a big impact on the Lab/SNP marginals but not on the English Lab/Con marginals because Con benefits from the lower UKIP figure.

I have ten scottish constituencies with Lab/SNP or SNP/Lab majorities less than 2% i.e. in the hundreds.

Latest seats projection

Con 262 ... (262)
Lab 294 ... (283)
LD 28 ... (30)
UKIP 2 ... (2)
Grn 1 ... (1)
SNP 42 ... (51)

Richard_Nabavi

RobD said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

isam said:

I recommended selling LibLabCon (for want of a better word, I wouldn't normally use that!) at 588, so that seems to have come my way if anyone did it

Or you could have simply bought the SNP at 20.5, as some of us recommended here and did ourselves...

That's one way to extract joy from the fact we may have 40+ SNPers in the Commons.

A very direct way!

RobD

Richard_Nabavi said:

RobD said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

isam said:

I recommended selling LibLabCon (for want of a better word, I wouldn't normally use that!) at 588, so that seems to have come my way if anyone did it

Or you could have simply bought the SNP at 20.5, as some of us recommended here and did ourselves...

That's one way to extract joy from the fact we may have 40+ SNPers in the Commons.

A very direct way!

Sorry, but I hope you lose all your money....

TGOHF

Scott_P said:

Dan Hodges reckons Ed might not win...

@TeleComment: If David Cameron wins on Lynton Crosby's ticket, it will be open season on all the old Tory values, says @DPJHodges http://t.co/QuXxyl9oq3

Montie not happy with him on twitter - good spat brewing

Pulpstar

RobD said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

RobD said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

isam said:

I recommended selling LibLabCon (for want of a better word, I wouldn't normally use that!) at 588, so that seems to have come my way if anyone did it

Or you could have simply bought the SNP at 20.5, as some of us recommended here and did ourselves...

That's one way to extract joy from the fact we may have 40+ SNPers in the Commons.

A very direct way!

Sorry, but I hope you lose all your money....

I bloody don't.

Theuniondivvie

RobD said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

isam said:

I recommended selling LibLabCon (for want of a better word, I wouldn't normally use that!) at 588, so that seems to have come my way if anyone did it

Or you could have simply bought the SNP at 20.5, as some of us recommended here and did ourselves...

That's one way to extract joy from the fact we may have 40+ SNPers in the Commons.

Devoutly wishing for something can have unexpected consequences.

Better together..

Scott_P

@JasonGroves1: George Osborne hails IFS verdict that incomes will be higher this year than in 2010 as a 'very significant moment in our economic debate'

Ed "I won't reverse any of this budget" Balls slapped down by the IFS.

Richard_Nabavi

RobD said:

Sorry, but I hope you lose all your money....

No risk of that, I'm in profit for all Scottish outcomes apart from a loss of a few quid at about 8 SNP seats, and I'm not losing much sleep over that.

isam

Richard_Nabavi said:

isam said:

I recommended selling LibLabCon (for want of a better word, I wouldn't normally use that!) at 588, so that seems to have come my way if anyone did it

Or you could have simply bought the SNP at 20.5, as some of us recommended here and did ourselves...

The word "simply" used to describe getting a bet on with Sporting Index... you're a one Richard!

GIN1138

Between yesterday's Conservative Budget and today's Lib-Dem Fiasco it looks like we've got the makings of ConDem V2?

Richard_Nabavi

isam said:

The word "simply" used to describe getting a bet on with Sporting Index... you're a one Richard!

Simple for me (and on credit too) - I've always found them one of the better bookies for getting reasonable liquidity. Alternatively you could have used Spreadex.

logical_song

Plato said:

Quite telegraph.co.uk/finance/budget/11483301/Sketch-Danny-Alexander-enjoyed-writing-the-Budget-so-much...-that-today-hes-written-another-one.html

I know what I’m about to tell you sounds mad. But look at it from Danny Alexander’s point of view. Seven weeks from now, he won’t be a minister any more. He may not even be an MP. This, almost certainly, was his last chance to realise a lifelong dream. So this morning, less than 24 hours after the Budget, he went to the Commons to present a Budget of his own.

Now, you may be thinking, “Hang on a minute. Danny Alexander is Chief Secretary to the Treasury. He co-wrote the Budget.” And you’d be right. He confirmed this to a bewildered House. “The policy measures in the Budget were ones that I helped put together on an equal measure with the Chancellor,” he said proudly, “and I will be voting in favour of all the Budget resolutions.”

And yet here he was, at the exact same time, telling the House how he’d actually prefer to do it all differently. “To those asking whether there is another way,” he cried, “I say, ‘Yes – there is a better way!’” A better way than the Budget he’d co-written, and was still firmly intending to vote for.

What's the problem? It's a coalition, neither George nor Danny got what they completely wanted. They got what they wanted where they agreed and elsewhere they compromised. I'm fine with both of them saying what they would have liked to have - and no doubt that will happen over the next few weeks.

Scott_P

@HTScotPol: Index from new @AlexSalmond book, The Dream Shall Never Die http://t.co/0IzzwiGRl7

Pulpstar

Barnesian said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Labour revival, albeit in part-ELBOW for the 7 polls so far this week:

Lab 34.1
Con 33.3
UKIP 13.4
LD 7.9
Green 5.8

Lab lead 0.8% - was 0.0% week-ending Sunday 15th March, and 0.3% 8th March!

It looks like a small weakening of UKIP and Green and a slight strengthening of Labour.

In my switching model, this has the biggest effect in Scotland even though I haven't altered the proportion of 2010 vote that SNP takes from Lab and LibDem. The small increase in Lab vote has a big impact on the Lab/SNP marginals but not on the English Lab/Con marginals because Con benefits from the lower UKIP figure.

I have ten scottish constituencies with Lab/SNP or SNP/Lab majorities less than 2% i.e. in the hundreds.

Latest seats projection

Con 262 ... (262)
Lab 294 ... (283)
LD 28 ... (30)
UKIP 2 ... (2)
Grn 1 ... (1)
SNP 42 ... (51)

Which constituencies ?

Plato

For our history buffs. telegraph.co.uk/news/science/science-news/11480732/Britons-still-live-in-Anglo-Saxon-tribal-kingdoms-Oxford-University-finds.html

Britons are still living in the same 'tribes' that they did in the 7th Century, Oxford University has found after an astonishing study into our genetic make-up.

Archaeologists and geneticists were amazed to find that genetically similar individuals inhabit the same areas they did following the Anglo-Saxon invasion, following the fall of the Roman Empire.

In fact, a map showing tribes of Britain in 600AD is almost identical to a new chart showing genetic variability throughout the UK, suggesting that local communities have stayed put for the past 1415 years.

For anyone interested, my parents restored Lord Armstrong's [of gun making fame] home/banqueting hall in Jesmond Dene and we lived there for a while - the banks opposite were full of cannon ball holes. It and the surrounding grounds were epic for a little girl like me.

Scott_P

Labour Uncut throwing in the towel

The grim reality is that unless there is a random unforeseen event which upends the race, Labour’s poll rating history will repeat itself with the party headed for one of its worst ever election results.

http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/03/19/the-budget-was-labours-last-chance-history-is-clear-about-what-happens-next/

AlastairMeeks

I'm not sure why the Greens have risen to 1.4 - 1.8. Anyway, I've sold them at 1.4.

The Conservatives should be a sell at 282 on fundamentals, but the irrational exuberance supporting them in the markets at present is a phenomenon to behold. Labour and the Conservatives look the wrong way around to me on current data.

Barnesian

Pulpstar said:

Barnesian said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Labour revival, albeit in part-ELBOW for the 7 polls so far this week:

Lab 34.1
Con 33.3
UKIP 13.4
LD 7.9
Green 5.8

Lab lead 0.8% - was 0.0% week-ending Sunday 15th March, and 0.3% 8th March!

It looks like a small weakening of UKIP and Green and a slight strengthening of Labour.

In my switching model, this has the biggest effect in Scotland even though I haven't altered the proportion of 2010 vote that SNP takes from Lab and LibDem. The small increase in Lab vote has a big impact on the Lab/SNP marginals but not on the English Lab/Con marginals because Con benefits from the lower UKIP figure.

I have ten scottish constituencies with Lab/SNP or SNP/Lab majorities less than 2% i.e. in the hundreds.

Latest seats projection

Con 262 ... (262)
Lab 294 ... (283)
LD 28 ... (30)
UKIP 2 ... (2)
Grn 1 ... (1)
SNP 42 ... (51)

Which constituencies ?

Aberdeen
Dumfries X 2
Dunbarton
Edinburgh
Glasgow
Invercly
Motherwell
Paisley
Rutherg

You'll have to work out which specific constituencies. I'm just off to a St Patrick's do.

CarlottaVance

Plato said:

For our history buffs. telegraph.co.uk/news/science/science-news/11480732/Britons-still-live-in-Anglo-Saxon-tribal-kingdoms-Oxford-University-finds.html

Britons are still living in the same 'tribes' that they did in the 7th Century, Oxford University has found after an astonishing study into our genetic make-up.

Archaeologists and geneticists were amazed to find that genetically similar individuals inhabit the same areas they did following the Anglo-Saxon invasion, following the fall of the Roman Empire.

In fact, a map showing tribes of Britain in 600AD is almost identical to a new chart showing genetic variability throughout the UK, suggesting that local communities have stayed put for the past 1415 years.

For anyone interested, my parents restored Lord Armstrong's [of gun making fame] home/banqueting hall in Jesmond Dene and we lived there for a while - the banks opposite were full of cannon ball holes. It and the surrounding grounds were epic for a little girl like me.

I knew you were a Geordie lass at heart!

Oh, the days of the Fisherman's Lodge! (and its wood panelled sibling the Fisherman's Wharf on the Quayside)

http://www.thejournal.co.uk/news/north-east-news/complaints-lodged-over-shut-fishermans-4394256

SunnyJim

Betting Post:

1730 Wolves Madakheel 66-1 ew (StanJames)

Richard_Nabavi

antifrank said:

The Conservatives should be a sell at 282 on fundamentals, but the irrational exuberance supporting them in the markets at present is a phenomenon to behold. Labour and the Conservatives look the wrong way around to me on current data.

They may be the wrong way round, but if so it's not necessarily irrational exuberance amongst punters. Ask the academics what they are predicting:

Conservative:

May2015 277
Election Forecast 284
Elections etc 285
Guardian 277

Labour:

May2015 268
Election Forecast 279
Elections etc 279
Guardian 269

http://may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/

OblitusSumMe

Plato said:

For our history buffs. telegraph.co.uk/news/science/science-news/11480732/Britons-still-live-in-Anglo-Saxon-tribal-kingdoms-Oxford-University-finds.html

Britons are still living in the same 'tribes' that they did in the 7th Century, Oxford University has found after an astonishing study into our genetic make-up.

Archaeologists and geneticists were amazed to find that genetically similar individuals inhabit the same areas they did following the Anglo-Saxon invasion, following the fall of the Roman Empire.

In fact, a map showing tribes of Britain in 600AD is almost identical to a new chart showing genetic variability throughout the UK, suggesting that local communities have stayed put for the past 1415 years.

For anyone interested, my parents restored Lord Armstrong's [of gun making fame] home/banqueting hall in Jesmond Dene and we lived there for a while - the banks opposite were full of cannon ball holes. It and the surrounding grounds were epic for a little girl like me.From the article:

"The ‘People of the British Isles’ study analysed the DNA of 2,039 people from rural areas of the UK, whose four grandparents were all born within 80km of each other.

Because a quarter of our genome comes from each of our grandparents, the researchers were effectively sampling DNA from these ancestors, allowing a snapshot of UK genetics in the late 19th Century before mass migration events caused by the industrial revolution."

So it wasn't looking at the status today, in 2015, but in something like 1885, which would be 1285 years after 600AD, not the 1415 stated.

Very surprised by the Yorkshire results, though, that suggest no long-lasting Viking presence.

surbiton

Barnesian said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Labour revival, albeit in part-ELBOW for the 7 polls so far this week:

Lab 34.1
Con 33.3
UKIP 13.4
LD 7.9
Green 5.8

Lab lead 0.8% - was 0.0% week-ending Sunday 15th March, and 0.3% 8th March!

It looks like a small weakening of UKIP and Green and a slight strengthening of Labour.

In my switching model, this has the biggest effect in Scotland even though I haven't altered the proportion of 2010 vote that SNP takes from Lab and LibDem. The small increase in Lab vote has a big impact on the Lab/SNP marginals but not on the English Lab/Con marginals because Con benefits from the lower UKIP figure.

I have ten scottish constituencies with Lab/SNP or SNP/Lab majorities less than 2% i.e. in the hundreds.

Latest seats projection

Con 262 ... (262)
Lab 294 ... (283)
LD 28 ... (30)
UKIP 2 ... (2)
Grn 1 ... (1)
SNP 42 ... (51)

Why has the SNP fallen by 9?

MikeL

Con Most Seats just gone in another 0.01 on Betfair - now 1.45 - shortest ever.

Really baffling - I wish it was true that their prospects were improving - but where is the objective evidence?

Callum_Snr

logical_song said:

Plato said:

Quite telegraph.co.uk/finance/budget/11483301/Sketch-Danny-Alexander-enjoyed-writing-the-Budget-so-much...-that-today-hes-written-another-one.html

I know what I’m about to tell you sounds mad. But look at it from Danny Alexander’s point of view. Seven weeks from now, he won’t be a minister any more. He may not even be an MP. This, almost certainly, was his last chance to realise a lifelong dream. So this morning, less than 24 hours after the Budget, he went to the Commons to present a Budget of his own.

Now, you may be thinking, “Hang on a minute. Danny Alexander is Chief Secretary to the Treasury. He co-wrote the Budget.” And you’d be right. He confirmed this to a bewildered House. “The policy measures in the Budget were ones that I helped put together on an equal measure with the Chancellor,” he said proudly, “and I will be voting in favour of all the Budget resolutions.”

And yet here he was, at the exact same time, telling the House how he’d actually prefer to do it all differently. “To those asking whether there is another way,” he cried, “I say, ‘Yes – there is a better way!’” A better way than the Budget he’d co-written, and was still firmly intending to vote for.

What's the problem? It's a coalition, neither George nor Danny got what they completely wanted. They got what they wanted where they agreed and elsewhere they compromised. I'm fine with both of them saying what they would have liked to have - and no doubt that will happen over the next few weeks.

It was a complete farce. Danny and his little toy yellow My First Budget Box, playing at being Chancellor.

It just confirmed what most people have thought all along about the Lib Dems since the formation of the "Coalition".

Still, they can't fall much further, they might as well go demob happy and have a bit of fun.

MikeL

We were promised an announcement re the debates this morning - but no sign of it.

I wonder if the final thing being argued over is whether Farage moves from the 16 April "Challengers" event to the 30 April "Final" event.

GIN1138

MikeL said:

Con Most Seats just gone in another 0.01 on Betfair - now 1.45 - shortest ever.

Really baffling - I wish it was true that their prospects were improving - but where is the objective evidence?

Doesn't The Sun usually get YouGov around now?

rcs1000

isam said:

I recommended selling LibLabCon (for want of a better word, I wouldn't normally use that!) at 588, so that seems to have come my way if anyone did it

Also UKIP x4 seems to add up to more than the Lib Dem quotes.. everyone tells me I have had a shocking bet there...

isam: the UKIP spread bet captures the implicit optionality. I am long UKIP seats, but don't expect them to get more than 4 or 5, because if UKIP gets 20% in the election (or if the LibDems get to 15%, and eat into the Labour and Conservative vote), then they could get 20, 30 or even 50 seats. Essentially, I'm getting huge upside, and very limited downside.

Barnesian

surbiton said:

Barnesian said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Labour revival, albeit in part-ELBOW for the 7 polls so far this week:

Lab 34.1
Con 33.3
UKIP 13.4
LD 7.9
Green 5.8

Lab lead 0.8% - was 0.0% week-ending Sunday 15th March, and 0.3% 8th March!

It looks like a small weakening of UKIP and Green and a slight strengthening of Labour.

In my switching model, this has the biggest effect in Scotland even though I haven't altered the proportion of 2010 vote that SNP takes from Lab and LibDem. The small increase in Lab vote has a big impact on the Lab/SNP marginals but not on the English Lab/Con marginals because Con benefits from the lower UKIP figure.

I have ten scottish constituencies with Lab/SNP or SNP/Lab majorities less than 2% i.e. in the hundreds.

Latest seats projection

Con 262 ... (262)
Lab 294 ... (283)
LD 28 ... (30)
UKIP 2 ... (2)
Grn 1 ... (1)
SNP 42 ... (51)

Why has the SNP fallen by 9?

Green and a little UKIP back to Labour in tight marginals.

Barnesian

Barnesian said:

Pulpstar said:

Barnesian said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Labour revival, albeit in part-ELBOW for the 7 polls so far this week:

Lab 34.1
Con 33.3
UKIP 13.4
LD 7.9
Green 5.8

Lab lead 0.8% - was 0.0% week-ending Sunday 15th March, and 0.3% 8th March!

It looks like a small weakening of UKIP and Green and a slight strengthening of Labour.

In my switching model, this has the biggest effect in Scotland even though I haven't altered the proportion of 2010 vote that SNP takes from Lab and LibDem. The small increase in Lab vote has a big impact on the Lab/SNP marginals but not on the English Lab/Con marginals because Con benefits from the lower UKIP figure.

I have ten scottish constituencies with Lab/SNP or SNP/Lab majorities less than 2% i.e. in the hundreds.

Latest seats projection

Con 262 ... (262)
Lab 294 ... (283)
LD 28 ... (30)
UKIP 2 ... (2)
Grn 1 ... (1)
SNP 42 ... (51)

Which constituencies ?

Aberdeen
Dumfries X 2
Dunbarton
Edinburgh
Glasgow
Invercly
Motherwell
Paisley
Rutherg

You'll have to work out which specific constituencies. I'm just off to a St Patrick's do.

Aberdeen South
Edinburgh SW
Glasgow Central and NW
Paisley South which is the most marginal seat in my model for the whole UK - one vote in it!

Now I really must go.

Callum_Snr

GIN1138 said:

MikeL said:

Con Most Seats just gone in another 0.01 on Betfair - now 1.45 - shortest ever.

Really baffling - I wish it was true that their prospects were improving - but where is the objective evidence?

Doesn't The Sun usually get YouGov around now?

Lol, well if YouGov shows the usual timely Tory boostlet I'm sure Tom Newton Dunn will be chirping up about an "interesting poll" soon enough ;-)

Pulpstar

SunnyJim said:

Betting Post:

1730 Wolves Madakheel 66-1 ew (StanJames)

On at 35-1 E/W, place price wrong lol

TGOHF

MikeL said:

Con Most Seats just gone in another 0.01 on Betfair - now 1.45 - shortest ever.

Really baffling - I wish it was true that their prospects were improving - but where is the objective evidence?

Try the Labour uncut article posted below..

Plato

When my parents got it - it was totally derelict and unsafe. Our Great Dane [almost as 70s as an Afghan Hound] fell through a staircase as woodworm was endemic. It had lead pipes, no viable heating and holes in the roof.

It was called The Victoria during our stay. I had my 9th birthday party in the ballroom with an 8-Track. I think we had a 999yr lease and as ever, my dad got bored and sold it on and became a software man instead [in 010101 language].

It is too bizarre to explain living in a condemned building and couldn't drink the water, getting trapped in the eaves/frightened of falling through the floor, lost in the grounds and crying my eyes out when the field next to it was tarmaced over.

We used to steal dry ice from the Walls ice cream delivery man and drop it on the river rats!

CarlottaVance said:

Plato said:

For our history buffs. telegraph.co.uk/news/science/science-news/11480732/Britons-still-live-in-Anglo-Saxon-tribal-kingdoms-Oxford-University-finds.html

Britons are still living in the same 'tribes' that they did in the 7th Century, Oxford University has found after an astonishing study into our genetic make-up.

Archaeologists and geneticists were amazed to find that genetically similar individuals inhabit the same areas they did following the Anglo-Saxon invasion, following the fall of the Roman Empire.

In fact, a map showing tribes of Britain in 600AD is almost identical to a new chart showing genetic variability throughout the UK, suggesting that local communities have stayed put for the past 1415 years.

For anyone interested, my parents restored Lord Armstrong's [of gun making fame] home/banqueting hall in Jesmond Dene and we lived there for a while - the banks opposite were full of cannon ball holes. It and the surrounding grounds were epic for a little girl like me.

I knew you were a Geordie lass at heart!

Oh, the days of the Fisherman's Lodge! (and its wood panelled sibling the Fisherman's Wharf on the Quayside)

http://www.thejournal.co.uk/news/north-east-news/complaints-lodged-over-shut-fishermans-4394256

MikeSmithson

Richard_Nabavi said:

antifrank said:

The Conservatives should be a sell at 282 on fundamentals, but the irrational exuberance supporting them in the markets at present is a phenomenon to behold. Labour and the Conservatives look the wrong way around to me on current data.

They may be the wrong way round, but if so it's not necessarily irrational exuberance amongst punters. Ask the academics what they are predicting:

Conservative:

May2015 277
Election Forecast 284
Elections etc 285
Guardian 277

Labour:

May2015 268
Election Forecast 279
Elections etc 279
Guardian 269

http://may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/

I've been a seller of the Tories at 280 since before Christmas.

Just got back from London with some very good info. I'm getting my bets on before sharing.

Casino_Royale

antifrank said:

I'm not sure why the Greens have risen to 1.4 - 1.8. Anyway, I've sold them at 1.4.

The Conservatives should be a sell at 282 on fundamentals, but the irrational exuberance supporting them in the markets at present is a phenomenon to behold. Labour and the Conservatives look the wrong way around to me on current data.

'Twas ever thus. But the markets only overestimated the Conservatives by 10 seats in 2010GE.

It was Labour they under predicted and Lib Dems they over predicted. But arguably that's evidence for inertia in the system and innate favourability to the government.

Anyway, I agree. I was bullish on the Tories chances. Until I saw that disastrous Ashcroft marginals poll.

Pulpstar

MikeSmithson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

antifrank said:

The Conservatives should be a sell at 282 on fundamentals, but the irrational exuberance supporting them in the markets at present is a phenomenon to behold. Labour and the Conservatives look the wrong way around to me on current data.

They may be the wrong way round, but if so it's not necessarily irrational exuberance amongst punters. Ask the academics what they are predicting:

Conservative:

May2015 277
Election Forecast 284
Elections etc 285
Guardian 277

Labour:

May2015 268
Election Forecast 279
Elections etc 279
Guardian 269

http://may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/

I've been a seller of the Tories at 280 since before Christmas.

Just got back from London with some very good info. I'm getting my bets on before sharing.

Have you heard someone is "very confident" ?

TGOHF

Pulpstar said:

MikeSmithson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

antifrank said:

The Conservatives should be a sell at 282 on fundamentals, but the irrational exuberance supporting them in the markets at present is a phenomenon to behold. Labour and the Conservatives look the wrong way around to me on current data.

They may be the wrong way round, but if so it's not necessarily irrational exuberance amongst punters. Ask the academics what they are predicting:

Conservative:

May2015 277
Election Forecast 284
Elections etc 285
Guardian 277

Labour:

May2015 268
Election Forecast 279
Elections etc 279
Guardian 269

http://may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/

I've been a seller of the Tories at 280 since before Christmas.

Just got back from London with some very good info. I'm getting my bets on before sharing.

Have you heard someone is "very confident" ?

Secret Canadians counting tweets ?

Scott_P

MikeSmithson said:

Just got back from London with some very good info.

Did Danny let you peek inside his box?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Royale, I wouldn't put too much faith in a single poll. Ashcroft's polling has many peaks and troughs.

Pulpstar

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Royale, I wouldn't put too much faith in a single poll. Ashcroft's polling has many peaks and troughs.

Or just troughs if you're Scottish Labour

Smarmeron

Will it be "Kipper heaven" tonight?
Britain out of Europe?

Paul_Mid_Beds

MikeSmithson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

antifrank said:

The Conservatives should be a sell at 282 on fundamentals, but the irrational exuberance supporting them in the markets at present is a phenomenon to behold. Labour and the Conservatives look the wrong way around to me on current data.

They may be the wrong way round, but if so it's not necessarily irrational exuberance amongst punters. Ask the academics what they are predicting:

Conservative:

May2015 277
Election Forecast 284
Elections etc 285
Guardian 277

Labour:

May2015 268
Election Forecast 279
Elections etc 279
Guardian 269

http://may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/

I've been a seller of the Tories at 280 since before Christmas.

Just got back from London with some very good info. I'm getting my bets on before sharing.

Whatever you've heard in London, I think it is pretty certain now that a goodly chunk of those 52% of Voters who have not made their mind up yet will decide to stick with the devil they know and consider being compassionate and voting Labour a luxury they cannot risk.

Not sure whether the Tories will get a bigger % than 2010 or fall a couple of points short but I think for Labour the question is whether Miliband can beat Kinnock or Foots share of the vote with floating voters leaking to the Tories, the scots to SNP, the left to Green/Respect and White Van Man to UKIP.

Plato

OT I've been watching The World At War - it scores 9.4 on IMDb. I'd forgotten how superb it is as a documentary and made IIRC by Thames TV.

When did the BBC make anything so fabulous bar David Attenborough?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Pulpstar, well, quite. Even a dead cat bounces. Scottish Labour do appear to be a dead hippopotamus.

Hengists_Gift

Off topic

FIFA announce 2022 World Cup Final will be played on the 18th December 2022. The Sunday before Christmas.. Just when everyone is busy getting ready for Christmas.

#boycottworldcup2022

Sean_F

Plato said:

I really don't like TimM and his carping - this sums him up

I found the article noteworthy for two reasons. First, because as well as being one of Britain’s foremost political commentators, Tim Montgomerie reflects the views of a significant element of the Conservative party. And second, because until today I thought this “we must be careful not to win the wrong way” nonsense was the preserve of the Labour party.

Scott_P said:

Dan Hodges reckons Ed might not win...

@TeleComment: If David Cameron wins on Lynton Crosby's ticket, it will be open season on all the old Tory values, says @DPJHodges http://t.co/QuXxyl9oq3

Isn't a bit premature of Dan Hodges to be declaring a Conservative victory?

Even if the Conservatives were to form a minority government on, say, 297 seats, I don't think the argument would be settled.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Gift, it's ridiculous. Worth recalling the preceding World Cup will be in Russia.

Carnyx

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Pulpstar, well, quite. Even a dead cat bounces. Scottish Labour do appear to be a dead hippopotamus.

Would an elephant do? (Or even elephants.)(

giphy.com/gifs/CmP32SBiePG4o

isam

Hengists_Gift said:

Off topic

FIFA announce 2022 World Cup Final will be played on the 18th December 2022. The Sunday before Christmas.. Just when everyone is busy getting ready for Christmas.

#boycottworldcup2022

A lot of the World wont! Its not the Christian Cup!

Pong

Richard_Nabavi said:

antifrank said:

The Conservatives should be a sell at 282 on fundamentals, but the irrational exuberance supporting them in the markets at present is a phenomenon to behold. Labour and the Conservatives look the wrong way around to me on current data.

They may be the wrong way round, but if so it's not necessarily irrational exuberance amongst punters. Ask the academics what they are predicting:

Conservative:

May2015 277
Election Forecast 284
Elections etc 285
Guardian 277

Labour:

May2015 268
Election Forecast 279
Elections etc 279
Guardian 269

http://may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/

Even if it is irrational exuberance, it's not necessarily a bubble that will pop until the votes are counted. cf, Romney/intrade.

I mean, which was more silly; Investing in dutch tulips, or not investing in dutch tulips before everyone else got in on the game? The intrinsic value of dutch tulips never really mattered an awful lot, did it?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Carnyx, elephants are delightful, but hippopotamus is a more amusing word.

Mr. Isam, don't have to be a Christian to do something for Christmas.

Scott_P

@KayBurley: #LeadersDebates: Want to be in our audience? http://t.co/q9BZ0GHZnY http://t.co/ONstxJDAg9

Where's Nige..?

Scott_P

@SkyNewsBreak: Reuters: CNBC reports U.S. Republican Senator Rand Paul has filed to run for president in 2016

dr_spyn

Sky News Newsdesk ‏@SkyNewsBreak 30s30 seconds ago
Reuters: CNBC reports U.S. Republican Senator Rand Paul has filed to run for president in 2016

taffys

'I'd forgotten how superb it is as a documentary and made IIRC by Thames TV.'

Olivier's narration is utterly masterful...

Pong

Scott_P said:

@KayBurley: #LeadersDebates: Want to be in our audience? http://t.co/q9BZ0GHZnY http://t.co/ONstxJDAg9

Where's Nige..?

lol

isam

Scott_P said:

@KayBurley: #LeadersDebates: Want to be in our audience? http://t.co/q9BZ0GHZnY http://t.co/ONstxJDAg9

Where's Nige..?

In at least one debate which means you called it bang wrong

AllyPally_Rob

Plato said:

OT I've been watching The World At War - it scores 9.4 on IMDb. I'd forgotten how superb it is as a documentary and made IIRC by Thames TV.

When did the BBC make anything so fabulous bar David Attenborough?

Wasn't the 'Cold War' series narrated by Kenneth Branagh a BBC/CNN production? That was pretty good as I recall.

Scott_P

@paulhutcheon: Wish you were here? Thought not http://t.co/b3smMYw1N4

Plato

Never heard of it. Another fantastic Thames TV show was Crime Inc. Superb on the Mafia

AllyPally_Rob said:

Plato said:

OT I've been watching The World At War - it scores 9.4 on IMDb. I'd forgotten how superb it is as a documentary and made IIRC by Thames TV.

When did the BBC make anything so fabulous bar David Attenborough?

Wasn't the 'Cold War' series narrated by Kenneth Branagh a BBC/CNN production? That was pretty good as I recall.

Speedy

dr_spyn said:

Sky News Newsdesk ‏@SkyNewsBreak 30s30 seconds ago
Reuters: CNBC reports U.S. Republican Senator Rand Paul has filed to run for president in 2016

http://www.fec.gov/fecviewer/CandidateCommitteeDetail.do?candidateCommitteeId=P40003576&tabIndex=1

Scott_P

@bpolitics: False alarm: @SenRandPaul has not yet filed FEC paperwork for presidential run (by @DaveWeigel) http://t.co/0D22Z5JylX

Speedy

I'm expecting Paul to officially announce his candidacy any day or moment now in a rally or something but he has to be fast because the cat is out of the bag.

Plato

I've been just watching the Japanese bit pre-nukes and Kamikazes et al. They really were no different to suicide bombers of today since their planes were flying bombs and they were waved off as heroes destined never to return - just with a nationalistic agenda. I remain very impressed by their resolve whatever the case.

taffys said:

'I'd forgotten how superb it is as a documentary and made IIRC by Thames TV.'

Olivier's narration is utterly masterful...

David_Evershed

Hengists_Gift said:

Off topic

FIFA announce 2022 World Cup Final will be played on the 18th December 2022. The Sunday before Christmas.. Just when everyone is busy getting ready for Christmas.

#boycottworldcup2022

At least we know the home nations will not be involved.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Evershed, have the results leaked already?

FalseFlag

Speedy said:

I'm expecting Paul to officially announce his candidacy any day or moment now in a rally or something but he has to be fast because the cat is out of the bag.

Even after he didn't clap Netanyahu's speech sufficiently enthusiastically?

Be about as popular with the Israel and military industrial complex as JFK.

AllyPally_Rob

Plato said:

Never heard of it. Another fantastic Thames TV show was Crime Inc. Superb on the Mafia

AllyPally_Rob said:

Plato said:

OT I've been watching The World At War - it scores 9.4 on IMDb. I'd forgotten how superb it is as a documentary and made IIRC by Thames TV.

When did the BBC make anything so fabulous bar David Attenborough?

Wasn't the 'Cold War' series narrated by Kenneth Branagh a BBC/CNN production? That was pretty good as I recall.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_War_(TV_series)

Most/all of it is on YouTube I think. Well worth a watch.

Omnium

AllyPally_Rob said:

Plato said:

OT I've been watching The World At War - it scores 9.4 on IMDb. I'd forgotten how superb it is as a documentary and made IIRC by Thames TV.

When did the BBC make anything so fabulous bar David Attenborough?

Wasn't the 'Cold War' series narrated by Kenneth Branagh a BBC/CNN production? That was pretty good as I recall.

The World at War is in my view the best documentary ever made. Knocking very hard on it's door is the earlier 'The Great War'. I think these both owe a lot in their ambition to a certain W Churchill - happily though they are somewhat less strongly biased.

The BBC make some outstanding programmes all the time. The days of really cold, hard, and interesting have perhaps somewhat passed - Horizon for example has really gone downhill. There's lots of 'lets break for some commercials, and a recap' which goes on. But.. once in a while they actually let proper programming off the leash. I've really liked some of Lucy Worsley's stuff in the last couple of years (although she's made some hideous stuff too), but the thing that really sticks in my mind is 'the joy of stats' with Hans Rosling - it was (and is) a really good example of what broadcasters can do.

I imagine that once upon a time people who knew a great deal about their subject saw the opportunity of making a BBC documentary as a real chance to set their views clearly, and to try to explain what their subject was all about. Modern academics should follow that example. Be clear, but don't talk down. If an academic isn't up to that then he doesn't understand his subject anyway.

So.... I have all this general love for the BBC, and yet I'd shut it down tomorrow - it never lives up to these ideals, it is nearly always biased, and it should be ashamed of itself. I'd open a very similar new BBC the day after.

MP_SE

I think Bobby Jindal is future presidential material. A true conservative.

Hengists_Gift

isam said:

Hengists_Gift said:

Off topic

FIFA announce 2022 World Cup Final will be played on the 18th December 2022. The Sunday before Christmas.. Just when everyone is busy getting ready for Christmas.

#boycottworldcup2022

A lot of the World wont! Its not the Christian Cup!

And I'm not religious but it will severely disrupt two seasons football for the continent of the most heavily viewed football there is with considerable financial implications for the clubs and their sponsors and why because a bunch of fat cat Oil Shieks bribed a bunch of corrupt administrators.

That's why it should be boycotted. FIFA represent everything that is wrong with unaccountable global organisations and as for Blatter. I hope its a complete and utter failure.

Oh and thats not even going into the alleged issues around slave labour being used to build the stadiums.

Smarmeron

@AllyPally_Rob

This series left an impression on me.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b0074p90/the-great-war-12-for-gawds-sake-dont-send-me

Plato

Will give it a go - thanx for the recommend.

I just watched The Cat From Outer Space on YouTube - I haven't seen that in 30yrs. Disney's use of MASH actors makes it very funny in retrospect. And what YouTube was made for!

youtube.com/watch?v=9SEaSW1jtnQ

AllyPally_Rob said:

Plato said:

Never heard of it. Another fantastic Thames TV show was Crime Inc. Superb on the Mafia

AllyPally_Rob said:

Plato said:

OT I've been watching The World At War - it scores 9.4 on IMDb. I'd forgotten how superb it is as a documentary and made IIRC by Thames TV.

When did the BBC make anything so fabulous bar David Attenborough?

Wasn't the 'Cold War' series narrated by Kenneth Branagh a BBC/CNN production? That was pretty good as I recall.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_War_(TV_series)

Most/all of it is on YouTube I think. Well worth a watch.

taffys

They really were no different to suicide bombers of today since their planes were flying bombs and they were waved off as heroes destined never to return

Yes and no.

The Kamikazi pilots hurled themselves at heavily armed military shipping. You can see the anti aircraft fire pouring out at them in the World at War programme. Their enemies were seasoned troops with a fighting chance of survival.

Suicide bombers go for civilians.

This is what annoys me about islamists. A decent army would go through them like a dose of salts.

peter_from_putney

In fact the Tories enoy a significantly larger lead of almost 20 seats with IG's GE Seats spread market, i.e 289 vs 269.5 seats. I imagine that IG's market is far more actively traded, bearing in mind that it is a vastly larger operation than Sporting and also taking into account the fact that Sporting have only very recently reduced their spread from a hitherto hefty 6 seats to 5, whereas IG operate on a narrower spread of just 4 seats.

Paul_Mid_Beds

Speedy said:

I'm expecting Paul to officially announce his candidacy any day or moment now in a rally or something but he has to be fast because the cat is out of the bag.

Nah, US president not my cup of tea. I did think of having a go as an independent in Mid Beds in May but couldn't be bothered.

MarkSenior

peter_from_putney said:

In fact the Tories enoy a significantly larger lead of almost 20 seats with IG's GE Seats spread market, i.e 289 vs 269.5 seats. I imagine that IG's market is far more actively traded, bearing in mind that it is a vastly larger operation than Sporting and also taking into account the fact that Sporting have only very recently reduced their spread from a hitherto hefty 6 seats to 5, whereas IG operate on a narrower spread of just 4 seats.

At the same stage post budget in March 2010 the Conservative spread was 324-329 . A similar overstatement on polling day would see Labour as the largest party .

Paul_Mid_Beds

taffys said:

They really were no different to suicide bombers of today since their planes were flying bombs and they were waved off as heroes destined never to return

Yes and no.

The Kamikazi pilots hurled themselves at heavily armed military shipping. You can see the anti aircraft fire pouring out at them in the World at War programme. Their enemies were seasoned troops with a fighting chance of survival.

Suicide bombers go for civilians.

This is what annoys me about islamists. A decent army would go through them like a dose of salts.

While the south Mediterranean nutters are the last people who I would stand up for, exactly why should anyone fight a war in a way that their enemy is rather better at than them? Once you start a war the end largely justifies the means.

SquareRoot

Ignoring posts like Roger's meal with his mate.. and Rosaree's ridiculous posts what actual vibes are you getting re Budget 2015???. I've met lots of people but not a soul has mentioned it in any way whatsoever.

Scott_P

@rowenamason: Ukip saying they have suspended Janice Atkinson MEP

@BBCBreaking: UKIP MEP & #GE2015 candidate Janice Atkinson suspended from party over "allegations of serious financial nature" http://t.co/7YyhsDasmw