Wtf Are the Conservatives doing standing in East Belfast ?!
NI Conservatives are very conscientious people who wish the rest of NI would cop on and be as British as Finchley. Unfortunately for them, their natural base in the golf clubs and garden centres of north Down is completely turned off politics and would probably have voted Alliance as much as UUP in 2010. As for the SDLP pact, this weighed on my mind, and I think their leader will come under pressure to agree in exchange for Sinn Féin standing down again in his Belfast South constituency. Even in the presence of a pact, I think it is still better than 50/50 for the DUP. The SDLP and SF are more different than the UUP and the DUP these days, and not everyone will cross over in the former case.
Budget - The Times says .... ''Economists at HSBC expect the OBR to increase its growth forecast for 2015 from 2.4 per cent to 2.7 per cent and from 2.2 per cent to 2.5 per cent for 2016, making the UK the second strongest of all G7 leading countries after the US in both years. Simon Wells, HSBC’s chief economist, said faster growth would prove a “boon to the public finances” ...leading it tom suggest Osborne will, ''use a £10 billion windfall from a booming economy to offer voters a taste of post-austerity Britain as he kicks off the Conservatives’ election campaign.''
I would be very surprised if we got a 10 billion give away, but there may be a carrot dangled for the future. I would expect spending &age of GDP to be set so it can be pointed towards levels last seen under Gordon Brown in say 1999 or 2000.
Budget - The Times says .... ''Economists at HSBC expect the OBR to increase its growth forecast for 2015 from 2.4 per cent to 2.7 per cent and from 2.2 per cent to 2.5 per cent for 2016, making the UK the second strongest of all G7 leading countries after the US in both years. Simon Wells, HSBC’s chief economist, said faster growth would prove a “boon to the public finances” ...leading it tom suggest Osborne will, ''use a £10 billion windfall from a booming economy to offer voters a taste of post-austerity Britain as he kicks off the Conservatives’ election campaign.''
I would be very surprised if we got a 10 billion give away, but there may be a carrot dangled for the future. I would expect spending &age of GDP to be set so it can be pointed towards levels last seen under Gordon Brown in say 1999 or 2000.
I have to say that I am surprised Osborne opened up the "back to the 1930" attack on a politics front...If he has changed his cuts figures a tiny amount, it would be have been back to Brown years in terms of public spending.
Budget - The Times says .... ''Economists at HSBC expect the OBR to increase its growth forecast for 2015 from 2.4 per cent to 2.7 per cent and from 2.2 per cent to 2.5 per cent for 2016, making the UK the second strongest of all G7 leading countries after the US in both years. Simon Wells, HSBC’s chief economist, said faster growth would prove a “boon to the public finances” ...leading it tom suggest Osborne will, ''use a £10 billion windfall from a booming economy to offer voters a taste of post-austerity Britain as he kicks off the Conservatives’ election campaign.''
I would be very surprised if we got a 10 billion give away, but there may be a carrot dangled for the future. I would expect spending &age of GDP to be set so it can be pointed towards levels last seen under Gordon Brown in say 1999 or 2000.
I have to say that I am surprised Osborne opened up the "back to the 1930" attack on a politics front...If he has changed his cuts figures a tiny amount, it would be have been back to Brown years in terms of public spending.
Probably to get Labour all in a tiz about going back to the 30s only for it not to happen? Still, there will now be people who are convinced this is going to happen!
While I don't know too much about child abuse victims, I have worked with female victims of sexual violence in the past, and this post is a classic of the denial genre. There seems to be a segment of the population that have an instinctive reaction of refusing to accept a crime has taken place, in the absence of all evidence. Here you have the "he's a good egg that wouldn't do such a thing" trope, the "it's all a witch hunt" trope, and the "it's not as bad as worst crime X" trope. All that is missing is the victim blaming.
I'm not denying that Fred Talbot abused his position. He was a teacher and he most definitely had a predilection for adolescent boys- this is getting on for forty years ago, and Fred was in his twenties. But thankfully times have changed. But Fred was a good man and a good teacher when I knew him and I am sure that during his trial countless witnesses spoke on his behalf to say this. But I feel sorry for the kids that he manipulated and exploited.
And Sean Fear- really, on the Rotherham data. Out of the 300,000 population at any one time you would have perhaps ten to twenty 14-16 year old girls in local authority care- these were the ones targeted. And out of these maybe half would be vulnerable, the other would half be resilient. So how can you come up with 1400?
It is like saying in a population of London (9 million) extrapolating this there have been 50,000 victims over the last ten years- purely on extrapolation of the baseline numbers. This is nonsense.
You can only count on the number of victims who have come forward (38) and the number of people convicted- I think in Rotherham about 8. The rest is conjecture.
Budget - The Times says .... ''Economists at HSBC expect the OBR to increase its growth forecast for 2015 from 2.4 per cent to 2.7 per cent and from 2.2 per cent to 2.5 per cent for 2016, making the UK the second strongest of all G7 leading countries after the US in both years. Simon Wells, HSBC’s chief economist, said faster growth would prove a “boon to the public finances” ...leading it tom suggest Osborne will, ''use a £10 billion windfall from a booming economy to offer voters a taste of post-austerity Britain as he kicks off the Conservatives’ election campaign.''
I would be very surprised if we got a 10 billion give away, but there may be a carrot dangled for the future. I would expect spending &age of GDP to be set so it can be pointed towards levels last seen under Gordon Brown in say 1999 or 2000.
I have to say that I am surprised Osborne opened up the "back to the 1930" attack on a politics front...If he has changed his cuts figures a tiny amount, it would be have been back to Brown years in terms of public spending.
David Smith says the same thing in his Times column. Of course if you look at it even now the Labour Party are (not surprisingly) not comparing apples with oranges. Even on a 1930's comparison the economy has grown so the %age gives you a lot more and the nature and balance of govt spending has changed. Of course in real terms we see that Labour increased spending between 2000 and 2010 by 50%%. Thats real terms and 10 years and 50%. Oh and no money to pay.
rcs1000 Indeed, I think Arab heavy areas yet to report fully so could still see some change, but picture will be clearer tomorrow. Netanyahu probably remains PM, shape of his coalition unclear, night
Plenty of abusers can come across as decent people to those that meet them in everyday life, but generosity and kindness in one area does not make someone a good man if they exploit and abuse the vulnerable elsewhere. Fred Talbot was convicted in a court of law as abusing children. That is something a good man does not do. I understand that can be difficult to process for those who have positive experiences of someone, but we must always empathize with the victims, even if we know the abuser better.
Fred Talbot did not just manipulate and exploit these boys as Tyson would have us believe, he sexually assaulted them and is now serving five years for his perversion.
However that is not the end of the sad story, because he also destroyed their lives. Many victims of abuse go on to be abusers themselves, or their lives head into a downward spiral of alcoholism, drug taking etc and the many petty crimes that are associated with such tragic lives.
Yet the right on brigade will on the one hand hand berate the evil baby eating Tories for the plight of these people whilst defending those who set them into this spiral in the first place.
"Does anyone know how the report came to the 1400 figure? I am sure there must be some reasoning behind it."
Didn't SeanT Another Richard and Socrates decide that you could extrapolate the figure of 200,000 Asian rapists just in the North of England from these figures?
It was antifrank who made the calculation.
But a Green voting Islington based lawyer doesn't fit so well for those who want to deny the issue exists.
The Scottish National Party has voted to make Nicola Sturgeon the best-paid politician in Britain.
The Scottish Parliament, which is controlled by the SNP, rubber-stamped a pay rise for all its members that takes Miss Sturgeon’s official salary to £144,687 a year.
Her pay is now well above David Cameron’s £142,500 earnings as well as the £143,911 that Boris Johnson is paid for his role as Mayor of London.
This should be good news for the DUP in North Belfast and I have bet accordingly, and to a different extent it is good for unionists in the other two change seats (the fourth seat, Fermanagh and South Tyrone, had an agreed unionist candidate in 2010, so this simply returns us to status quo ante).
Will be interesting to see if Sinn Fein and SDLP tactically vote for Naomi Long on Belfast East. But officially I would expect their leaderships to rail against this as they want the sectarian system as much as anyone and Alliance threaten that.
We could definately be looking at 324 as the new Majority in Westminster if UUP do well in Fermanagh and Newry
There is hardly anyone left voting for SF/SDLP in Belfast East (3 per cent in 2010) because it is the most Protestant constituency in Belfast and Long had already squeezed about a third of their earlier vote. Compare this to the 54 per cent combined DUP/UUP vote and it's bad news for Long. Belfast North was vaguely threatened by demographics favouring Sinn Féin in the long term, but there are more than enough unionist-minded voters to keep the DUP winning here for the moment. Fermanagh and West Tyrone could be a UUP win, though at medium-long odds. Newry and Armagh won't.
The thing is Northern Ireland has a massively dysfunctional electorate. Nearly 50% have just opted out because they reject the religious parties. Long's hope will be that because she holds office she can persuade enough non-voters to opt back in and send a message that if non-religious parties can win, then there is a reason to vote again.
Turnout in Belfast East was 58% in 2010, if Long can drive that up above 65% she may still have a chance.
This fails to comprehend where a surprising amount of Long's vote came from in 2010. It came from Loyalist housing estates who were, encouraged by the 'community representatives' aligned with the paramilitaries, out to stick one to the gilded empire of Peter Robinson. Whilst Long is considered by some to be the East Belfast grassroots girl made good, those same people that helped get her in in 2010 are not likely to stand up for her again. You might not see them make a direct switch from her to the DUP but you might just not have them turn out.
I see that the Tories are standing in East Belfast how much do you think they can pull UUP votes away from the DUP ?
Wtf Are the Conservatives doing standing in East Belfast ?!
Budget - The Times says .... ''Economists at HSBC expect the OBR to increase its growth forecast for 2015 from 2.4 per cent to 2.7 per cent and from 2.2 per cent to 2.5 per cent for 2016, making the UK the second strongest of all G7 leading countries after the US in both years. Simon Wells, HSBC’s chief economist, said faster growth would prove a “boon to the public finances” ...leading it tom suggest Osborne will, ''use a £10 billion windfall from a booming economy to offer voters a taste of post-austerity Britain as he kicks off the Conservatives’ election campaign.''
I would be very surprised if we got a 10 billion give away, but there may be a carrot dangled for the future. I would expect spending &age of GDP to be set so it can be pointed towards levels last seen under Gordon Brown in say 1999 or 2000.
I have to say that I am surprised Osborne opened up the "back to the 1930" attack on a politics front...If he has changed his cuts figures a tiny amount, it would be have been back to Brown years in terms of public spending.
Probably to get Labour all in a tiz about going back to the 30s only for it not to happen? Still, there will now be people who are convinced this is going to happen!
Surprising fact:
There was greater economic growth from 1930 - 1939 than 2000 - 2009.
Budget - The Times says .... ''Economists at HSBC expect the OBR to increase its growth forecast for 2015 from 2.4 per cent to 2.7 per cent and from 2.2 per cent to 2.5 per cent for 2016, making the UK the second strongest of all G7 leading countries after the US in both years. Simon Wells, HSBC’s chief economist, said faster growth would prove a “boon to the public finances” ...leading it tom suggest Osborne will, ''use a £10 billion windfall from a booming economy to offer voters a taste of post-austerity Britain as he kicks off the Conservatives’ election campaign.''
I would be very surprised if we got a 10 billion give away, but there may be a carrot dangled for the future. I would expect spending &age of GDP to be set so it can be pointed towards levels last seen under Gordon Brown in say 1999 or 2000.
I have to say that I am surprised Osborne opened up the "back to the 1930" attack on a politics front...If he has changed his cuts figures a tiny amount, it would be have been back to Brown years in terms of public spending.
Probably to get Labour all in a tiz about going back to the 30s only for it not to happen? Still, there will now be people who are convinced this is going to happen!
Surprising fact:
There was greater economic growth from 1930 - 1939 than 2000 - 2009.
Perhaps Tyson should take up his theories with Keith Vaz, who in January 2013 was already talking about hundreds of victims:
"In 2010, an independent report described the localised grooming offences prosecuted in Rotherham as being at the top end of seriousness.
"We're talking about hundreds of victims, of vulnerable young girls, who have not been protected because, at the end of the day, what people are looking for are prosecutions."
Budget - The Times says .... ''Economists at HSBC expect the OBR to increase its growth forecast for 2015 from 2.4 per cent to 2.7 per cent and from 2.2 per cent to 2.5 per cent for 2016, making the UK the second strongest of all G7 leading countries after the US in both years. Simon Wells, HSBC’s chief economist, said faster growth would prove a “boon to the public finances” ...leading it tom suggest Osborne will, ''use a £10 billion windfall from a booming economy to offer voters a taste of post-austerity Britain as he kicks off the Conservatives’ election campaign.''
I would be very surprised if we got a 10 billion give away, but there may be a carrot dangled for the future. I would expect spending &age of GDP to be set so it can be pointed towards levels last seen under Gordon Brown in say 1999 or 2000.
I have to say that I am surprised Osborne opened up the "back to the 1930" attack on a politics front...If he has changed his cuts figures a tiny amount, it would be have been back to Brown years in terms of public spending.
Probably to get Labour all in a tiz about going back to the 30s only for it not to happen? Still, there will now be people who are convinced this is going to happen!
Surprising fact:
There was greater economic growth from 1930 - 1939 than 2000 - 2009.
Possibly they shouldn't have been breaking the law then. The NSA specifically denied to a congressional inquiry that they were doing what the Snowden leaks showed they were actually doing. Watch CitizenFour, its... educational.
Possibly they shouldn't have been breaking the law then. The NSA specifically denied to a congressional inquiry that they were doing what the Snowden leaks showed they were actually doing. Watch CitizenFour, its... educational.
If terrorist suspects are using human couriers, the spooks can stop watching us online then. Hello there.
Budget - The Times says .... ''Economists at HSBC expect the OBR to increase its growth forecast for 2015 from 2.4 per cent to 2.7 per cent and from 2.2 per cent to 2.5 per cent for 2016, making the UK the second strongest of all G7 leading countries after the US in both years. Simon Wells, HSBC’s chief economist, said faster growth would prove a “boon to the public finances” ...leading it tom suggest Osborne will, ''use a £10 billion windfall from a booming economy to offer voters a taste of post-austerity Britain as he kicks off the Conservatives’ election campaign.''
I would be very surprised if we got a 10 billion give away, but there may be a carrot dangled for the future. I would expect spending &age of GDP to be set so it can be pointed towards levels last seen under Gordon Brown in say 1999 or 2000.
I have to say that I am surprised Osborne opened up the "back to the 1930" attack on a politics front...If he has changed his cuts figures a tiny amount, it would be have been back to Brown years in terms of public spending.
Probably to get Labour all in a tiz about going back to the 30s only for it not to happen? Still, there will now be people who are convinced this is going to happen!
Surprising fact:
There was greater economic growth from 1930 - 1939 than 2000 - 2009.
Netanyahu might lose 1 or 2 more seats but I can't see Herzog putting together a coalition of 50 and managing with supply and confidence from Joint Arab. It wouldn't work.
Kulanu will probably join Netanyahu and take Finance Ministry. In theory, Kulanu could refuse to play and force another election.
Netanyahu might lose 1 or 2 more seats but I can't see Herzog putting together a coalition of 50 and managing with supply and confidence from Joint Arab. It wouldn't work.
Kulanu will probably join Netanyahu and take Finance Ministry. In theory, Kulanu could refuse to play and force another election.
Budget - The Times says .... ''Economists at HSBC expect the OBR to increase its growth forecast for 2015 from 2.4 per cent to 2.7 per cent and from 2.2 per cent to 2.5 per cent for 2016, making the UK the second strongest of all G7 leading countries after the US in both years. Simon Wells, HSBC’s chief economist, said faster growth would prove a “boon to the public finances” ...leading it tom suggest Osborne will, ''use a £10 billion windfall from a booming economy to offer voters a taste of post-austerity Britain as he kicks off the Conservatives’ election campaign.''
I would be very surprised if we got a 10 billion give away, but there may be a carrot dangled for the future. I would expect spending &age of GDP to be set so it can be pointed towards levels last seen under Gordon Brown in say 1999 or 2000.
I have to say that I am surprised Osborne opened up the "back to the 1930" attack on a politics front...If he has changed his cuts figures a tiny amount, it would be have been back to Brown years in terms of public spending.
Probably to get Labour all in a tiz about going back to the 30s only for it not to happen? Still, there will now be people who are convinced this is going to happen!
Surprising fact:
There was greater economic growth from 1930 - 1939 than 2000 - 2009.
What about 1928-1937, 1998-2007?
The statement was 'back to the 30s' 1928 and 1929 are not the 1930s and the 2000s were hailed as being an era of exceptional growth in the UK economy.
Comments
The Times says .... ''Economists at HSBC expect the OBR to increase its growth forecast for 2015 from 2.4 per cent to 2.7 per cent and from 2.2 per cent to 2.5 per cent for 2016, making the UK the second strongest of all G7 leading countries after the US in both years. Simon Wells, HSBC’s chief economist, said faster growth would prove a “boon to the public finances”
...leading it tom suggest Osborne will, ''use a £10 billion windfall from a booming economy to offer voters a taste of post-austerity Britain as he kicks off the Conservatives’ election campaign.''
I would be very surprised if we got a 10 billion give away, but there may be a carrot dangled for the future. I would expect spending &age of GDP to be set so it can be pointed towards levels last seen under Gordon Brown in say 1999 or 2000.
And Sean Fear- really, on the Rotherham data. Out of the 300,000 population at any one time you would have perhaps ten to twenty 14-16 year old girls in local authority care- these were the ones targeted. And out of these maybe half would be vulnerable, the other would half be resilient. So how can you come up with 1400?
It is like saying in a population of London (9 million) extrapolating this there have been 50,000 victims over the last ten years- purely on extrapolation of the baseline numbers. This is nonsense.
You can only count on the number of victims who have come forward (38) and the number of people convicted- I think in Rotherham about 8. The rest is conjecture.
Keep digging that hole Mr. Apologist
Of course in real terms we see that Labour increased spending between 2000 and 2010 by 50%%. Thats real terms and 10 years and 50%. Oh and no money to pay.
However that is not the end of the sad story, because he also destroyed their lives. Many victims of abuse go on to be abusers themselves, or their lives head into a downward spiral of alcoholism, drug taking etc and the many petty crimes that are associated with such tragic lives.
Yet the right on brigade will on the one hand hand berate the evil baby eating Tories for the plight of these people whilst defending those who set them into this spiral in the first place.
God knows I hate these hypocritical Socialists.
But a Green voting Islington based lawyer doesn't fit so well for those who want to deny the issue exists.
The Scottish Parliament, which is controlled by the SNP, rubber-stamped a pay rise for all its members that takes Miss Sturgeon’s official salary to £144,687 a year.
Her pay is now well above David Cameron’s £142,500 earnings as well as the £143,911 that Boris Johnson is paid for his role as Mayor of London.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2999671/Scots-MPs-vote-pay-Sturgeon-PM-panicked-aides-fear-PR-disaster-insist-ll-135-000.html
If they hit 3.25%, the right in Israel will be very happy.
There was greater economic growth from 1930 - 1939 than 2000 - 2009.
"In 2010, an independent report described the localised grooming offences prosecuted in Rotherham as being at the top end of seriousness.
"We're talking about hundreds of victims, of vulnerable young girls, who have not been protected because, at the end of the day, what people are looking for are prosecutions."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-20951491
'The Scottish National Party has voted to make Nicola Sturgeon the best-paid politician in Britain.'
Sick joke,makes Labour & Tory troughers look like wimps.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/budget/11478912/The-young-Eds-at-work-Tories-deploy-1997-Treasury-film-in-eve-of-budget-attack-ad.html
With about 75% of the results in I make the position as follows
Netanyahu bloc 59 seats (excl Kulanu)
Herzog bloc 40 seats (excl Kulanu)
Kulanu 10 seats
Joint Arab 11 seats.
Netanyahu might lose 1 or 2 more seats but I can't see Herzog putting together a coalition of 50 and managing with supply and confidence from Joint Arab. It wouldn't work.
Kulanu will probably join Netanyahu and take Finance Ministry.
In theory, Kulanu could refuse to play and force another election.
Netanyahu bloc 58 seats (excl Kulanu)
Herzog bloc 40 seats (excl Kulanu)
Kulanu 9 seats
Joint Arab 13 seats.