What would happen, if just say, tomorrow morning the TV companies released a joint statement saying no actual agreement had been made and do not know where the Tory Party got this from?
Surprising to see all the Tories on here talking about the debates but almost no mention of another Ashcroft marginals poll that shows next to no progress. Still looks like 50 Tory seats will become Labour ones.
The Ashcroft polls are soooooo last thread.
Quite so. There's nothing really Tories can do about it now anyway, so may as well just hope the Ashcroft polls are wrong and go forward with confidence I guess.
What would happen, if just say, tomorrow morning the TV companies released a joint statement saying no actual agreement had been made and do not know where the Tory Party got this from?
Surprising to see all the Tories on here talking about the debates but almost no mention of another Ashcroft marginals poll that shows next to no progress. Still looks like 50 Tory seats will become Labour ones.
Not talking about taking the lead with TNS either, what in your world is the reason for that?
Looks like Netanyahu has probably lost in Israel, but Herzog has not won either, shades of what will happen here in May? Kachlon will probably go with whoever scrapes in front, otherwise a Grand Coalition
What would happen if just say tomorrow morning the TV companies released a statement saying no actual agreement had been made and do not know where the Tory Party got this from?
How would that make Cameron look?
:-)
ITV announced the 2nd April debate last night on the 10.00 o clock news asking for viewers questions. Little doubt ITV debate will go ahead even if ITV decides to go alone
What would happen, if just say, tomorrow morning the TV companies released a joint statement saying no actual agreement had been made and do not know where the Tory Party got this from?
How would that make Cameron look?
:-)
The broadcasters have already released a statement, so they would look slightly ridiculous
What would happen, if just say, tomorrow morning the TV companies released a joint statement saying no actual agreement had been made and do not know where the Tory Party got this from?
How would that make Cameron look?
:-)
Well at the very least ITV won't be doing that because they've got "the big one" LOL!
What would happen, if just say, tomorrow morning the TV companies released a joint statement saying no actual agreement had been made and do not know where the Tory Party got this from?
Suggesting Kulanu is the Lib Dems of Israeli politics in any sense other than they can be power brokers is a leap. Its running on a socially liberal ticket but its headed by a former Likud man, Moshe Kachlon and its view on the national and security issue is hawkish.
As it is, Bibi has been on the phone with Natali Bennett (who looks onboard already with posts decided) & Moshe Kachlon already on the assumption he has that one more seat than the centre left Zionist Union. .
There is, however, talk in Israel is on a Unity government between the two largest parties. Sounds a stretch to us here but in Israel they do deal politics though Bibi seems to be looking to avoid that right now.
Yes - the President has asked for a Unity government but there is a lot of bad blood and wide differences between them.
Kachlon has spoken with both leaders: "10:46 p.m. After polls closed Tuesday night, Kulanu leader Moshe Kahlon spoke on the telephone with Likud leader Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as well as with Zionist Union leader Isaac Herzog.
Kahlon told the leaders of the 20th Knesset election's main contending parties, which appear head-to-head in exit polls, that he would decide with whom his party would align depending on official ballot results."
He seems to be the Nick Clegg as DoubleCarpet suggested.
Without Kulanu (Kahlon) Netanyahu has only 54 seats. Kulanu has 10 so definitely the king-maker.
Looks like Netanyahu has probably lost in Israel, but Herzog has not won either, shades of what will happen here in May? Kachlon will probably go with whoever scrapes in front, otherwise a Grand Coalition
Israel needs a FPTP system to give clear and decisive election outcomes...
Yes but with a 3.5% cut-off so if you don't get at least 3.5% of the total vote, you get no seats. This is to avoid fragmentation. However it looks as if ten parties will beat the 3.5%.
If they increased the cut-off to 10%, there would be only four parties. (If we did this in the UK, we would have only three parties. No LibDems ,Greens or SNP. Makes it simpler)
The Israelis also use the list system (like the European Elections in the UK). So electors don't have a choice of a person, only a party. Awful.
They would be better off with STV like the Irish, or the German system.
"We welcome David Cameron's willingness to participate in the first TV debate on 2 April. "The broadcasters are continuing to work with all the political parties on programmes scheduled for 26 March, 16 April and 30 April."
They represent the Haredis who are about 10% of the population but are fast growing as they have 6+ children per family. They are also poor because they pray rather than work. They are excused military duties for religious reasons. They are resented by other Israelis as they cost so much in benefits and don't pull their weight. It looks as if they have got 6 or 7 seats and will join Likud.
From time to time I forget that the charming Charlie Whelan was involved in government. Who just by chance was copied in on the McBride smear emails. And of course he now works for UNITE. Small world.
GIN1138 Yes and No, PR prevents the likes of Netanyahu getting it all their own way and boosts centrist parties, but it also gives religious parties excessive influence
Yes but with a 3.5% cut-off so if you don't get at least 3.5% of the total vote, you get no seats. This is to avoid fragmentation. However it looks as if ten parties will beat the 3.5%.
If they increased the cut-off to 10%, there would be only four parties. (If we did this in the UK, we would have only three parties. No LibDems ,Greens or SNP. Makes it simpler)
Depends how the shift would affect tactical voting.
There is no such thing as "pure PR", since seats are ultimately indivisible. Denmark and Holland probably come the closest.
Israel used to come close, with a 1% threshold and largest remainder.
Now a 3.25% threshold and Hare/D'Hondt allocation have made it more disproportional. The last election (2013) was the most disproportional so far, and this one will almost certainly beat that. However, still very proportional compared to FPTP and its variants.
Least squared index of around 3%, compared to UK's 15%-20%. Less than 10% is considered "proportional", less than 5% is "very proportional".
Suggesting Kulanu is the Lib Dems of Israeli politics in any sense other than they can be power brokers is a leap. Its running on a socially liberal ticket but its headed by a former Likud man, Moshe Kachlon and its view on the national and security issue is hawkish.
As it is, Bibi has been on the phone with Natali Bennett (who looks onboard already with posts decided) & Moshe Kachlon already on the assumption he has that one more seat than the centre left Zionist Union. .
There is, however, talk in Israel is on a Unity government between the two largest parties. Sounds a stretch to us here but in Israel they do deal politics though Bibi seems to be looking to avoid that right now.
A bit more on Kachlon the king-maker. You'll see the reference to the "criminal" act of Likud this morning which doesn't bode well for Netanyahu.
"Kahlon is expected to take the Finance portfolio given his centrist positioning, which put him in the king-making position between the Zionist Union’s Isaac Herzog and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, of Likud.
Netanyahu went so far as to already promise him the position before the election.
Both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Zionist Union's Isaac Herzog spoke with Kahlon following the publication of the first surveys, but Kahlon said he would not make any decisions until at least Thursday, when the final election results are published.
The voting day began with a minor scandal.
Central Elections Committee Judge Salim Joubran fined Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party NIS 20,000 over a recording of Kahlon expressing support for Likud.
The party distributed the recording to potential voters on Monday evening, but Joubran ordered the group to halt using the recording at Kulanu's request, saying it was a blatant attempt to deceive the electorate
Kahlon called the recording "criminal," saying it was a forgery, and promised to seek a criminal investigation into it.
"We are pleased that Judge Joubran stopped the Likud from continuing to distribute this untruthful recording," the party said. "It is sad that the LIkud party, in a moment of desperation, chooses to deceive the public."
Likud shot back that the recording was real, but old, and said that voters were smart enough to know that Kahlon had long been a Likudnik.
"This is the first time I am not voting for Likud, but I do it wholeheartedly," Kahlon said. "We founded the Kulanu party to change the face of the nation. We are the only ones with the courage to battle the tycoons and pressure groups for the citizens."
Other party members got Netanyahu jabs in too.
“Nobody is leaving the country because of Iran,” his number two, Yoav Galant said, referring to Netanyahu’s pet issue in the election. “They’re leaving because they’re fed up with the social and economic situation."
What would happen, if just say, tomorrow morning the TV companies released a joint statement saying no actual agreement had been made and do not know where the Tory Party got this from?
How would that make Cameron look?
:-)
Very poor.
I'm beginning to warm to this Lynton cat.
??
Can't say I've heard that analogy before, though google suggests you are referring to the dead cat strategy? I'm sure it used to go by another name. Distracting the argument away from what your opponents want to talk about doesn't seem like it needs a fancy name - in my house it used to be called the 'Tory government' strategy as 13 years in to a Labour government a stock response my still be 'Ah, but that's not what we're talking about; what we're talking about is the appalling record of the last conservative government', but for the past 5 years it has been the 'Labour government' strategy.
Not that Ofsted is any different to the HMIC, IPCC and any other alphabet soup quango with their 'three monkeys' approach to inconvenient facts.
I forecast the same government non-response as they've done regarding the South Yorkshire plods.
Twenty nine weeks after the Jay report the number of plods, social workers, children's home managers, councillors and council officials remains at zero.
I hope nobody is expecting imminent arrests involving the Westminster paedophile abuse and cover up.
Richard- do you know how many of the 1400 Rotherham plus have come out? 38 so far. Criminal injuries compensation is quite good and only 38 so far. For 10 convictions 38 is probably about right. Where are the other 1362 plus? Probably in the vacuous black hole of spurious witch hunting, manipulative, factless, data.
The Jay report 1400 data was never scrutinized because noone had the bollocks to do so. It is hardly fashionable to challenge a witch hunt, especially when you are perceived to side with Asian paedophiles.
And so with Cyril Smith, the establishment, Jimmy Saville, operation Yew Tree, and all the rest, the same old story. Most probably big Cyril had some high up contacts and some horrible low down habits. But the froth eyed, media frenzy- you would think there were Rosemary Baby death orgies happening at the HoC every day in the 80's.
And Fred Talbot was my form teacher and class teacher for five years. He was a bloody good teacher, a good man and never showed anything other than professionalism and commitment to our class. And I knew him very well.
ITV 10 o clock news confirm 2nd April debate and said that its up to Ed Miliband now as he said anytime, anyplace, anywhere and they conveniently added he said it was upto the broadcasters to decide on format. He needs to be careful that he doesn't look desperate and loses the plot
Surprising to see all the Tories on here talking about the debates but almost no mention of another Ashcroft marginals poll that shows next to no progress. Still looks like 50 Tory seats will become Labour ones.
Arab party now third largest. Could be official opposition, entitled to security briefings by law.
Electoral system
National constituency, closed lists. Hare quota + D'Hondt. 3.25% threshold. Apparentment permitted.
Likud has 27 but Otzma/Yahad (fascist) didn't make the curt so 4 fewer for Netanyahu. Jewish Home only 8 not 11. Shas down 1. So the Likud bloc is only about 54.
The Herzog bloc is about 53 with the Arab Bloc on 13 holding the balance. Bit like the SNP. They might support Herzog in S&C but definitely not Netanhayu.
Has an arab party ever had that sort of influence on Israeli politics before ?
It all hinges on Kulanu (9 seats) but Netanyahu has really upset Kulanu this morning by putting out a false message that Kulanu was commited to Likud. I think Kulanu will go with Herzog. Kulanu is the LibDem of Israeli politics.
Do they produce imaginative bar (mitzvah) charts ?
You're in very good form this evening Jack.
I'm finishing off a very fine bottle of madeira ....
One of my many guilty pleasures.
I am rather partial to a drop myself. I have a rather nice bottle of Malmsey on the go.
Many thanks for your ARSE this morning. I have caught up after a hard day at the orofice. There was some discussion of Bury North I see.
This is not a seat that I have followed closely, but I wonder if the kippers are going to erode the Labour vote here. As well as the grooming scandals there has been quite a history of BNP support in the Lancashire ex-mill towns. With the implosion of the BNP those votes have to go somewhere.
@MarkKleinmanSky: Exclusive: Osborne to accelerate sale of £58bn UK Asset Resolution portfolio, announcement expected in Budget tmrw. http://t.co/DUIEx0ocOd
Not that Ofsted is any different to the HMIC, IPCC and any other alphabet soup quango with their 'three monkeys' approach to inconvenient facts.
I forecast the same government non-response as they've done regarding the South Yorkshire plods.
Twenty nine weeks after the Jay report the number of plods, social workers, children's home managers, councillors and council officials remains at zero.
I hope nobody is expecting imminent arrests involving the Westminster paedophile abuse and cover up.
Richard- do you know how many of the 1400 Rotherham plus have come out? 38 so far. Criminal injuries compensation is quite good and only 38 so far. For 10 convictions 38 is probably about right. Where are the other 1362 plus? Probably in the vacuous black hole of spurious witch hunting, manipulative, factless, data.
The Jay report 1400 data was never scrutinized because noone had the bollocks to do so. It is hardly fashionable to challenge a witch hunt, especially when you are perceived to side with Asian paedophiles.
And so with Cyril Smith, the establishment, Jimmy Saville, operation Yew Tree, and all the rest, the same old story. Most probably big Cyril had some high up contacts and some horrible low down habits. But the froth eyed, media frenzy- you would think there were Rosemary Baby death orgies happening at the HoC every day in the 80's.
And Fred Talbot was my form teacher and class teacher for five years. He was a bloody good teacher, a good man and never showed anything other than professionalism and commitment to our class. And I knew him very well.
I too find it curious that the lawyers are struggling to get victims to come forward to claim compensation. Despite all the publicity over the last year there seem very few.
Does anyone know how the report came to the 1400 figure? I am sure there must be some reasoning behind it.
What would happen, if just say, tomorrow morning the TV companies released a joint statement saying no actual agreement had been made and do not know where the Tory Party got this from?
How would that make Cameron look?
:-)
Very poor.
I'm beginning to warm to this Lynton cat.
??
Can't say I've heard that analogy before, though google suggests you are referring to the dead cat strategy? I'm sure it used to go by another name. Distracting the argument away from what your opponents want to talk about doesn't seem like it needs a fancy name - in my house it used to be called the 'Tory government' strategy as 13 years in to a Labour government a stock response my still be 'Ah, but that's not what we're talking about; what we're talking about is the appalling record of the last conservative government', but for the past 5 years it has been the 'Labour government' strategy.
Why Tyson is such an excellent poster. Some facts instead of the hysterical rubbish that has been demeaning this site for the last several months.
"Richard- do you know how many of the 1400 Rotherham plus have come out? 38 so far. Criminal injuries compensation is quite good and only 38 so far. For 10 convictions 38 is probably about right. Where are the other 1362 plus? Probably in the vacuous black hole of spurious witch hunting, manipulative, factless, data.
The Jay report 1400 data was never scrutinized because noone had the bollocks to do so. It is hardly fashionable to challenge a witch hunt, especially when you are perceived to side with Asian paedophiles.
And so with Cyril Smith, the establishment, Jimmy Saville, operation Yew Tree, and all the rest, the same old story. Most probably big Cyril had some high up contacts and some horrible low down habits. But the froth eyed, media frenzy- you would think there were Rosemary Baby death orgies happening at the HoC every day in the 80's.
And Fred Talbot was my form teacher and class teacher for five years. He was a bloody good teacher, a good man and never showed anything other than professionalism and commitment to our class. And I knew him very well."
Not that Ofsted is any different to the HMIC, IPCC and any other alphabet soup quango with their 'three monkeys' approach to inconvenient facts.
I forecast the same government non-response as they've done regarding the South Yorkshire plods.
Twenty nine weeks after the Jay report the number of plods, social workers, children's home managers, councillors and council officials remains at zero.
I hope nobody is expecting imminent arrests involving the Westminster paedophile abuse and cover up.
Richard- do you know how many of the 1400 Rotherham plus have come out? 38 so far. Criminal injuries compensation is quite good and only 38 so far. For 10 convictions 38 is probably about right. Where are the other 1362 plus? Probably in the vacuous black hole of spurious witch hunting, manipulative, factless, data.
The Jay report 1400 data was never scrutinized because noone had the bollocks to do so. It is hardly fashionable to challenge a witch hunt, especially when you are perceived to side with Asian paedophiles.
And so with Cyril Smith, the establishment, Jimmy Saville, operation Yew Tree, and all the rest, the same old story. Most probably big Cyril had some high up contacts and some horrible low down habits. But the froth eyed, media frenzy- you would think there were Rosemary Baby death orgies happening at the HoC every day in the 80's.
And Fred Talbot was my form teacher and class teacher for five years. He was a bloody good teacher, a good man and never showed anything other than professionalism and commitment to our class. And I knew him very well.
All is for the best in the best of all possible worlds.
What would happen, if just say, tomorrow morning the TV companies released a joint statement saying no actual agreement had been made and do not know where the Tory Party got this from?
How would that make Cameron look?
:-)
Very poor.
I'm beginning to warm to this Lynton cat.
??
Can't say I've heard that analogy before, though google suggests you are referring to the dead cat strategy? I'm sure it used to go by another name. Distracting the argument away from what your opponents want to talk about doesn't seem like it needs a fancy name - in my house it used to be called the 'Tory government' strategy as 13 years in to a Labour government a stock response my still be 'Ah, but that's not what we're talking about; what we're talking about is the appalling record of the last conservative government', but for the past 5 years it has been the 'Labour government' strategy.
I was refering to Lynton Crosby.
That's what google told me - that the lynton cat was the dead cat strategy, because he used it. It just doesn't seem anything other than normal politics, not a Lynton specific thing. Though apparently he likes to use it.
Not that Ofsted is any different to the HMIC, IPCC and any other alphabet soup quango with their 'three monkeys' approach to inconvenient facts.
I forecast the same government non-response as they've done regarding the South Yorkshire plods.
Twenty nine weeks after the Jay report the number of plods, social workers, children's home managers, councillors and council officials remains at zero.
I hope nobody is expecting imminent arrests involving the Westminster paedophile abuse and cover up.
Richard- do you know how many of the 1400 Rotherham plus have come out? 38 so far. Criminal injuries compensation is quite good and only 38 so far. For 10 convictions 38 is probably about right. Where are the other 1362 plus? Probably in the vacuous black hole of spurious witch hunting, manipulative, factless, data.
The Jay report 1400 data was never scrutinized because noone had the bollocks to do so. It is hardly fashionable to challenge a witch hunt, especially when you are perceived to side with Asian paedophiles.
And so with Cyril Smith, the establishment, Jimmy Saville, operation Yew Tree, and all the rest, the same old story. Most probably big Cyril had some high up contacts and some horrible low down habits. But the froth eyed, media frenzy- you would think there were Rosemary Baby death orgies happening at the HoC every day in the 80's.
And Fred Talbot was my form teacher and class teacher for five years. He was a bloody good teacher, a good man and never showed anything other than professionalism and commitment to our class. And I knew him very well.
All is for the best in the best of all possible worlds.
These were atrocious crimes and very well publicised. I can understand that a lot of victims want to put the whole episode behind them, but 97%?
"Does anyone know how the report came to the 1400 figure? I am sure there must be some reasoning behind it."
Didn't SeanT Another Richard and Socrates decide that you could extrapolate the figure of 200,000 Asian rapists just in the North of England from these figures?
Why Tyson is such an excellent poster. Some facts instead of the hysterical rubbish that has been demeaning this site for the last several months.
"Richard- do you know how many of the 1400 Rotherham plus have come out? 38 so far. Criminal injuries compensation is quite good and only 38 so far. For 10 convictions 38 is probably about right. Where are the other 1362 plus? Probably in the vacuous black hole of spurious witch hunting, manipulative, factless, data.
The Jay report 1400 data was never scrutinized because noone had the bollocks to do so. It is hardly fashionable to challenge a witch hunt, especially when you are perceived to side with Asian paedophiles.
And so with Cyril Smith, the establishment, Jimmy Saville, operation Yew Tree, and all the rest, the same old story. Most probably big Cyril had some high up contacts and some horrible low down habits. But the froth eyed, media frenzy- you would think there were Rosemary Baby death orgies happening at the HoC every day in the 80's.
And Fred Talbot was my form teacher and class teacher for five years. He was a bloody good teacher, a good man and never showed anything other than professionalism and commitment to our class. And I knew him very well."
'Hysterical rubbish' = Every post you've made about Clarkson.
Why Tyson is such an excellent poster. Some facts instead of the hysterical rubbish that has been demeaning this site for the last several months.
"Richard- do you know how many of the 1400 Rotherham plus have come out? 38 so far. Criminal injuries compensation is quite good and only 38 so far. For 10 convictions 38 is probably about right. Where are the other 1362 plus? Probably in the vacuous black hole of spurious witch hunting, manipulative, factless, data.
The Jay report 1400 data was never scrutinized because noone had the bollocks to do so. It is hardly fashionable to challenge a witch hunt, especially when you are perceived to side with Asian paedophiles.
And so with Cyril Smith, the establishment, Jimmy Saville, operation Yew Tree, and all the rest, the same old story. Most probably big Cyril had some high up contacts and some horrible low down habits. But the froth eyed, media frenzy- you would think there were Rosemary Baby death orgies happening at the HoC every day in the 80's.
And Fred Talbot was my form teacher and class teacher for five years. He was a bloody good teacher, a good man and never showed anything other than professionalism and commitment to our class. And I knew him very well."
Only 38? So that is Ok is it?
As for Talbot I could not care less if he was a good teacher or good man, he is a convicted paedophile and that is all that should be recorded.
These people are disgusting beyond belief, the damage they have done to their victims lives can never be measured. Anyone who has any modicum of sympathy or expresses any mitigation for these evil bastards is complicit in my view.
Not that Ofsted is any different to the HMIC, IPCC and any other alphabet soup quango with their 'three monkeys' approach to inconvenient facts.
I forecast the same government non-response as they've done regarding the South Yorkshire plods.
Twenty nine weeks after the Jay report the number of plods, social workers, children's home managers, councillors and council officials remains at zero.
I hope nobody is expecting imminent arrests involving the Westminster paedophile abuse and cover up.
Richard- do you know how many of the 1400 Rotherham plus have come out? 38 so far. Criminal injuries compensation is quite good and only 38 so far. For 10 convictions 38 is probably about right. Where are the other 1362 plus? Probably in the vacuous black hole of spurious witch hunting, manipulative, factless, data.
The Jay report 1400 data was never scrutinized because noone had the bollocks to do so. It is hardly fashionable to challenge a witch hunt, especially when you are perceived to side with Asian paedophiles.
And so with Cyril Smith, the establishment, Jimmy Saville, operation Yew Tree, and all the rest, the same old story. Most probably big Cyril had some high up contacts and some horrible low down habits. But the froth eyed, media frenzy- you would think there were Rosemary Baby death orgies happening at the HoC every day in the 80's.
And Fred Talbot was my form teacher and class teacher for five years. He was a bloody good teacher, a good man and never showed anything other than professionalism and commitment to our class. And I knew him very well.
All is for the best in the best of all possible worlds.
These were atrocious crimes and very well publicised. I can understand that a lot of victims want to put the whole episode behind them, but 97%?
Do you know how Jay came to the 1400 figure?
Only a small fraction of sex crime gets prosecuted. The rate of attrition is huge. So many people don't want to go into court over it.
@Scott_P "Oh look, we have found an extra few billion to bribe you all with." What's that you say?, pay down the deficit?" "No,no, there is no deficit, just look at the money, not around the money...."
I too find it curious that the lawyers are struggling to get victims to come forward to claim compensation. Despite all the publicity over the last year there seem very few.
Does anyone know how the report came to the 1400 figure? I am sure there must be some reasoning behind it.
Foxinsoxuk- the Rotherham 1400 plus data was absolute nonsense. Impossible. Especially considering the paltry amount of convictions. The Oxford data came in last week at 400, still too high, but better. The problem is that the social services databases are such utter crap- they are confusing, count episodes rather than individuals- and if you get a dyslexic data cruncher, or (a headline witchunter grabber)- then 50 or 60 individuals can rapidly hit 1400- especially when noone has the bollocks to challenge them.
If Clarkson intends to sue anyone surely it'll be the Daily Mail. They are the ones who publicized the libel if indeed there was one. The fact that someone might have briefed them doesn't in any way absolve them
Are Zionist Union expecting alot of late votes or something, or is Bibi heading for a big lead ? 60k vs 44.6k right now
There are still another 5,600,000 votes to count! Only 3% have been counted and they could be from anywhere. I think it will be close but I don't think the winner will emerge until 50+% have been counted. It might go to the wire.
Why Tyson is such an excellent poster. Some facts instead of the hysterical rubbish that has been demeaning this site for the last several months.
"Richard- do you know how many of the 1400 Rotherham plus have come out? 38 so far. Criminal injuries compensation is quite good and only 38 so far. For 10 convictions 38 is probably about right. Where are the other 1362 plus? Probably in the vacuous black hole of spurious witch hunting, manipulative, factless, data.
The Jay report 1400 data was never scrutinized because noone had the bollocks to do so. It is hardly fashionable to challenge a witch hunt, especially when you are perceived to side with Asian paedophiles.
And so with Cyril Smith, the establishment, Jimmy Saville, operation Yew Tree, and all the rest, the same old story. Most probably big Cyril had some high up contacts and some horrible low down habits. But the froth eyed, media frenzy- you would think there were Rosemary Baby death orgies happening at the HoC every day in the 80's.
And Fred Talbot was my form teacher and class teacher for five years. He was a bloody good teacher, a good man and never showed anything other than professionalism and commitment to our class. And I knew him very well."
Judging by your comments about Polanski, I'm not at all convinced that you think any crimes were committed in Rotherham and other boroughs.
Why Tyson is such an excellent poster. Some facts instead of the hysterical rubbish that has been demeaning this site for the last several months.
"Richard- do you know how many of the 1400 Rotherham plus have come out? 38 so far. Criminal injuries compensation is quite good and only 38 so far. For 10 convictions 38 is probably about right. Where are the other 1362 plus? Probably in the vacuous black hole of spurious witch hunting, manipulative, factless, data.
The Jay report 1400 data was never scrutinized because noone had the bollocks to do so. It is hardly fashionable to challenge a witch hunt, especially when you are perceived to side with Asian paedophiles.
And so with Cyril Smith, the establishment, Jimmy Saville, operation Yew Tree, and all the rest, the same old story. Most probably big Cyril had some high up contacts and some horrible low down habits. But the froth eyed, media frenzy- you would think there were Rosemary Baby death orgies happening at the HoC every day in the 80's.
And Fred Talbot was my form teacher and class teacher for five years. He was a bloody good teacher, a good man and never showed anything other than professionalism and commitment to our class. And I knew him very well."
'Hysterical rubbish' = Every post you've made about Clarkson.
The likes of Roger hero worship Roman Polanski and Woody Allen, tells you all you need to know about scumbags like him
This Israeli election doesn't look like it is going to be as close as the Exit polls were indicating. Likud bloc are over 6 points ahead with 6% of the vote in.
"Does anyone know how the report came to the 1400 figure? I am sure there must be some reasoning behind it."
Didn't SeanT Another Richard and Socrates decide that you could extrapolate the figure of 200,000 Asian rapists just in the North of England from these figures?
I believe they did.
I am not doubting that there are systemic gangs of "white slavers" in many towns. Often these are of Pakistani origin and also involved in the heroin trade, as well as money laundering via taxi companies and takeaways.
There are many questions to be asked of the various police forces, but why these gangs have proliferated without police interest until recently is a very curious one.
The true figure of numbers of victims is likely to never be known, and even 38 are 38 too many, but a forensic look at the whole issue may be a long time coming.
Why Tyson is such an excellent poster. Some facts instead of the hysterical rubbish that has been demeaning this site for the last several months.
"Richard- do you know how many of the 1400 Rotherham plus have come out? 38 so far. Criminal injuries compensation is quite good and only 38 so far. For 10 convictions 38 is probably about right. Where are the other 1362 plus? Probably in the vacuous black hole of spurious witch hunting, manipulative, factless, data.
The Jay report 1400 data was never scrutinized because noone had the bollocks to do so. It is hardly fashionable to challenge a witch hunt, especially when you are perceived to side with Asian paedophiles.
And so with Cyril Smith, the establishment, Jimmy Saville, operation Yew Tree, and all the rest, the same old story. Most probably big Cyril had some high up contacts and some horrible low down habits. But the froth eyed, media frenzy- you would think there were Rosemary Baby death orgies happening at the HoC every day in the 80's.
And Fred Talbot was my form teacher and class teacher for five years. He was a bloody good teacher, a good man and never showed anything other than professionalism and commitment to our class. And I knew him very well."
'Hysterical rubbish' = Every post you've made about Clarkson.
The likes of Roger hero worship Roman Polanski and Woody Allen, tells you all you need to know about scumbags like him
Roman Polanski - the original 5 foot pole nobody wants to touch.
@SunPolitics: YouGov/Sun poll - Labour two ahead & polling highest score this year. Ukip poll their lowest: CON 34%, LAB 36%, LD 7%, UKIP 12%, GRN 6%
36% is enourmous for Labour given what we know is happening in Scotland.
It looks like UKIP voters moving to Labour to me. But Con+UKIP at 46% still seems low compared to Lab+Green+LD at 49%.
What might be happening is that the imminency of the election is starting to coalesce opinion around the two main principle alternatives, albeit belatedly and reluctantly.
All is for the best in the best of all possible worlds.
These were atrocious crimes and very well publicised. I can understand that a lot of victims want to put the whole episode behind them, but 97%?
Do you know how Jay came to the 1400 figure?
Only a small fraction of sex crime gets prosecuted. The rate of attrition is huge. So many people don't want to go into court over it.
Seanf- I really do not want to get on the side of sex abusers and paedos, but the Rotherham 1400 plus data was not scrutinised. For a town the size of Rotherham you would of have to have locked up your daughters for the ten year period for fear of the Asian (ISIS like) rapist hordes, akin to Mosul for the figure to have reached anything like 1400.
UKIP used this 1400 figure cynically and politically. It fed the right wing frothy eyed mania. It fed the lefty Polly Guardinista agenda too- poor kids getting abused in huge numbers. It fed the anti Islam agenda. And sex crime is the new McCarthyism. Who in their right minds would put their head over the parapet and challenge the Jay findings?
Are Zionist Union expecting alot of late votes or something, or is Bibi heading for a big lead ? 60k vs 44.6k right now
There are still another 5,600,000 votes to count! Only 3% have been counted and they could be from anywhere. I think it will be close but I don't think the winner will emerge until 50+% have been counted. It might go to the wire.
Generally that's not true. With a proper PR system like that of Israel the result should be pretty much clear once 10% of the vote is in. Unless there are specific regional reasons (perhaps some Settlements are late to return due to security but surely they would be pro-Likud, perhaps some Arab areas similarly so but they wouldn't be pro-Labor either).
Comments
How would that make Cameron look?
:-)
Kachlon has spoken with both leaders:
"10:46 p.m. After polls closed Tuesday night, Kulanu leader Moshe Kahlon spoke on the telephone with Likud leader Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as well as with Zionist Union leader Isaac Herzog.
Kahlon told the leaders of the 20th Knesset election's main contending parties, which appear head-to-head in exit polls, that he would decide with whom his party would align depending on official ballot results."
He seems to be the Nick Clegg as DoubleCarpet suggested.
Without Kulanu (Kahlon) Netanyahu has only 54 seats. Kulanu has 10 so definitely the king-maker.
http://translate.google.co.uk/translate?hl=en&sl=iw&u=http://www.votes20.gov.il/&prev=search
If they increased the cut-off to 10%, there would be only four parties. (If we did this in the UK, we would have only three parties. No LibDems ,Greens or SNP. Makes it simpler)
The Israelis also use the list system (like the European Elections in the UK). So electors don't have a choice of a person, only a party. Awful.
They would be better off with STV like the Irish, or the German system.
"We welcome David Cameron's willingness to participate in the first TV debate on 2 April.
"The broadcasters are continuing to work with all the political parties on programmes scheduled for 26 March, 16 April and 30 April."
They represent the Haredis who are about 10% of the population but are fast growing as they have 6+ children per family. They are also poor because they pray rather than work. They are excused military duties for religious reasons. They are resented by other Israelis as they cost so much in benefits and don't pull their weight. It looks as if they have got 6 or 7 seats and will join Likud.
From time to time I forget that the charming Charlie Whelan was involved in government. Who just by chance was copied in on the McBride smear emails. And of course he now works for UNITE. Small world.
Israel used to come close, with a 1% threshold and largest remainder.
Now a 3.25% threshold and Hare/D'Hondt allocation have made it more disproportional. The last election (2013) was the most disproportional so far, and this one will almost certainly beat that.
However, still very proportional compared to FPTP and its variants.
Least squared index of around 3%, compared to UK's 15%-20%. Less than 10% is considered "proportional", less than 5% is "very proportional".
"Kahlon is expected to take the Finance portfolio given his centrist positioning, which put him in the king-making position between the Zionist Union’s Isaac Herzog and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, of Likud.
Netanyahu went so far as to already promise him the position before the election.
Both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Zionist Union's Isaac Herzog spoke with Kahlon following the publication of the first surveys, but Kahlon said he would not make any decisions until at least Thursday, when the final election results are published.
The voting day began with a minor scandal.
Central Elections Committee Judge Salim Joubran fined Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party NIS 20,000 over a recording of Kahlon expressing support for Likud.
The party distributed the recording to potential voters on Monday evening, but Joubran ordered the group to halt using the recording at Kulanu's request, saying it was a blatant attempt to deceive the electorate
Kahlon called the recording "criminal," saying it was a forgery, and promised to seek a criminal investigation into it.
"We are pleased that Judge Joubran stopped the Likud from continuing to distribute this untruthful recording," the party said. "It is sad that the LIkud party, in a moment of desperation, chooses to deceive the public."
Likud shot back that the recording was real, but old, and said that voters were smart enough to know that Kahlon had long been a Likudnik.
"This is the first time I am not voting for Likud, but I do it wholeheartedly," Kahlon said. "We founded the Kulanu party to change the face of the nation. We are the only ones with the courage to battle the tycoons and pressure groups for the citizens."
Other party members got Netanyahu jabs in too.
“Nobody is leaving the country because of Iran,” his number two, Yoav Galant said, referring to Netanyahu’s pet issue in the election. “They’re leaving because they’re fed up with the social and economic situation."
Is that the new proposal that Dave and Nick have agreed to, or the one that Ed says doesn't exist?
Can't say I've heard that analogy before, though google suggests you are referring to the dead cat strategy? I'm sure it used to go by another name. Distracting the argument away from what your opponents want to talk about doesn't seem like it needs a fancy name - in my house it used to be called the 'Tory government' strategy as 13 years in to a Labour government a stock response my still be 'Ah, but that's not what we're talking about; what we're talking about is the appalling record of the last conservative government', but for the past 5 years it has been the 'Labour government' strategy.
http://www.i24news.tv/en/tv/livehome
Richard- do you know how many of the 1400 Rotherham plus have come out? 38 so far. Criminal injuries compensation is quite good and only 38 so far. For 10 convictions 38 is probably about right. Where are the other 1362 plus? Probably in the vacuous black hole of spurious witch hunting, manipulative, factless, data.
The Jay report 1400 data was never scrutinized because noone had the bollocks to do so. It is hardly fashionable to challenge a witch hunt, especially when you are perceived to side with Asian paedophiles.
And so with Cyril Smith, the establishment, Jimmy Saville, operation Yew Tree, and all the rest, the same old story. Most probably big Cyril had some high up contacts and some horrible low down habits. But the froth eyed, media frenzy- you would think there were Rosemary Baby death orgies happening at the HoC every day in the 80's.
And Fred Talbot was my form teacher and class teacher for five years. He was a bloody good teacher, a good man and never showed anything other than professionalism and commitment to our class. And I knew him very well.
'Farage will not be in the debates.'
And when he ducked out of betting on it by pretending not to know what £100@9/4 meant..
'You'll be thanking me for this when Farage isn't in the debates'
'It would be iconic if they did empty chair the Poultry PM, however, they have no balls so will just question EICIPM.'
At least it avoids the risk of Ed soiling himself on live TV.
Many thanks for your ARSE this morning. I have caught up after a hard day at the orofice. There was some discussion of Bury North I see.
This is not a seat that I have followed closely, but I wonder if the kippers are going to erode the Labour vote here. As well as the grooming scandals there has been quite a history of BNP support in the Lancashire ex-mill towns. With the implosion of the BNP those votes have to go somewhere.
"And I knew him very well."
Not in the "biblical" sense we hope?
"UKIP have already said they don't like the new format "
A bit of a shocker that Scott?
No one needs to "like it" until they are ready, and they are not in a hurry either.
Does anyone know how the report came to the 1400 figure? I am sure there must be some reasoning behind it.
"Richard- do you know how many of the 1400 Rotherham plus have come out? 38 so far. Criminal injuries compensation is quite good and only 38 so far. For 10 convictions 38 is probably about right. Where are the other 1362 plus? Probably in the vacuous black hole of spurious witch hunting, manipulative, factless, data.
The Jay report 1400 data was never scrutinized because noone had the bollocks to do so. It is hardly fashionable to challenge a witch hunt, especially when you are perceived to side with Asian paedophiles.
And so with Cyril Smith, the establishment, Jimmy Saville, operation Yew Tree, and all the rest, the same old story. Most probably big Cyril had some high up contacts and some horrible low down habits. But the froth eyed, media frenzy- you would think there were Rosemary Baby death orgies happening at the HoC every day in the 80's.
And Fred Talbot was my form teacher and class teacher for five years. He was a bloody good teacher, a good man and never showed anything other than professionalism and commitment to our class. And I knew him very well."
Tramadoladindong or Crosby Messiah Outpourings?
Basiliscious or Squirrel Nappings?
Do you know how Jay came to the 1400 figure?
For those that haven't seen it, this seems appropriate...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TWORTz_Izh8
The first part of the strategy is complete, Dave looks like a total pussy.
Perhaps they are going to shoot him?
"Does anyone know how the report came to the 1400 figure? I am sure there must be some reasoning behind it."
Didn't SeanT Another Richard and Socrates decide that you could extrapolate the figure of 200,000 Asian rapists just in the North of England from these figures?
As for Talbot I could not care less if he was a good teacher or good man, he is a convicted paedophile and that is all that should be recorded.
These people are disgusting beyond belief, the damage they have done to their victims lives can never be measured. Anyone who has any modicum of sympathy or expresses any mitigation for these evil bastards is complicit in my view.
"Oh look, we have found an extra few billion to bribe you all with."
What's that you say?, pay down the deficit?"
"No,no, there is no deficit, just look at the money, not around the money...."
I too find it curious that the lawyers are struggling to get victims to come forward to claim compensation. Despite all the publicity over the last year there seem very few.
Does anyone know how the report came to the 1400 figure? I am sure there must be some reasoning behind it.
Foxinsoxuk- the Rotherham 1400 plus data was absolute nonsense. Impossible. Especially considering the paltry amount of convictions. The Oxford data came in last week at 400, still too high, but better. The problem is that the social services databases are such utter crap- they are confusing, count episodes rather than individuals- and if you get a dyslexic data cruncher, or (a headline witchunter grabber)- then 50 or 60 individuals can rapidly hit 1400- especially when noone has the bollocks to challenge them.
Yougov shows Labour still 2% in front....those goalposts are a moving. Keep on keeping on Basil.
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02855/squirrel_2855361k.jpg
Tick. Tock.
Tick, tock (this is a special message for Square Root :-) ).
Ashcroft the outlier ?
Crosby Messiah Outpourings on hold for tonight.
Mr Casino's hat getting worried
I am not doubting that there are systemic gangs of "white slavers" in many towns. Often these are of Pakistani origin and also involved in the heroin trade, as well as money laundering via taxi companies and takeaways.
There are many questions to be asked of the various police forces, but why these gangs have proliferated without police interest until recently is a very curious one.
The true figure of numbers of victims is likely to never be known, and even 38 are 38 too many, but a forensic look at the whole issue may be a long time coming.
What might be happening is that the imminency of the election is starting to coalesce opinion around the two main principle alternatives, albeit belatedly and reluctantly.
All is for the best in the best of all possible worlds.
These were atrocious crimes and very well publicised. I can understand that a lot of victims want to put the whole episode behind them, but 97%?
Do you know how Jay came to the 1400 figure?
Only a small fraction of sex crime gets prosecuted. The rate of attrition is huge. So many people don't want to go into court over it.
Seanf- I really do not want to get on the side of sex abusers and paedos, but the Rotherham 1400 plus data was not scrutinised. For a town the size of Rotherham you would of have to have locked up your daughters for the ten year period for fear of the Asian (ISIS like) rapist hordes, akin to Mosul for the figure to have reached anything like 1400.
UKIP used this 1400 figure cynically and politically. It fed the right wing frothy eyed mania. It fed the lefty Polly Guardinista agenda too- poor kids getting abused in huge numbers. It fed the anti Islam agenda. And sex crime is the new McCarthyism. Who in their right minds would put their head over the parapet and challenge the Jay findings?
It's looking like Bibi is walking it.