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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TNS poll has the Tories ahead whilst their appears to be progress on the debates
Latest @TNS_UK poll out
Con 33 (+5) Lab 32 (-3) LD 7 (+1) UKIP 17 (-1) Greens 4 (-3)
http://t.co/6OZfbbWkwQ
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So the broadcasters came to Cameron with an offer of everything he wanted, he accepted it, and announced it.
Now the rest are left squealing.
Lucky for them Dave isn't any good at this negotiation lark, eh?
You think?
Assuming this is the final word on the matter of course.
Clue is in the Title
So Scott, what has actually been agreed?
Dave can take part in the seven way, then what?
I shall exile myself to conhome for a week as penance.
Least worst option in that respect.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/vote_2005/frontpage/4492727.stm
Seemed to work OK that time...
"Nick" I agree with Dave should be worth a snigger, either that, or with nothing to lose he will kick him in the nutz.
So if you backed there would be debate(s) then you should be a winner.
If you, like me, backed there would be no debates, well we're losers.
"Based on the broadcasters' proposals we have accepted and plan to attend all three debates on April 2nd, 16th and the 30th," a spokesman said.
"If the Tories have confirmed they are to attend one of these debates then that is progress. It is one down, two to go. But no-one should be fooled. David Cameron is still running scared of a head-to-head televised debate with Ed Miliband."
The Liberal Democrats said it was "welcome news" that the Conservatives had "finally agreed" to take part in "at least" one debate.
So previously TNS were down weighthing the Tories and boosting Lab and UKIP
I will be disappointed if Dave isn't empty chaired to be honest
b) interview A formal meeting in person, especially one arranged for the assessment of the qualifications of an applicant.
c) Head to Head definition Involving two parties confronting each other.
Simple really Cowardly Cameron is running scared of 3*a)
Cowardly Cameron wants b) despite saying originally he wanted 3*a) including one c)
Cowardly Cameron says Ed is weak and Lab policies are rubbish but still wants to avoid c) as he is a chicken.
Simples
That was never on the cards, though it would be fairly obvious he wasn't there.
The phrase "have signed up for" could prove awkward for Dave as the election progresses, depending if the others had signed contracts, other than them using it as a figure of speech.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-31922773
How can it take over a year to come to decision on this?
Prime Minister has said he was made formal offer as PM on Saturday. James Harding can confirm or deny.
No John. we are missing the strategic "win" for Dave, last week he was definitely not doing the debates, this week he is.
It shows his strength and resolve.
(like cast iron it is)
Yes, someone is.
Wow. That is pretty ballsy of him. No one was run as hard or as much as him, and everyone knows that. That he might have managed to get a good deal for himself doesn't change that, but again, fair play to him for seeing the funny side, if that comment is anything to go by,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-31907670
Just a LOL read...including...
''Now then.'' The tax boss asks Mr Kante to brief him about my case. Both men pore over a calculator and come up with a figure of 236,160 francs ($380, £260).
''Hmm, I would like to have seen a rounder figure,'' says Mr Kantako eventually. ''And the pound is strong - I think we would like 300,000 francs ($485, £327) from you.'' He gives me the same open look as you get when buying almost anything in Mali. As much as to say: "That's my offer what's yours?"
''Oh, and we'll want that in cash,'' he says, "but you will be given a receipt."
Is his new offer the final final one?
Of course, some might reasonably ask why the leader of a "minor" party should get star billing?
And indeed, might complain very loudly.
Right.......but he was adamant last week? why the change of heart do you think?
Nothing worse than being Mr no mates until everybody decides to arrive fashionably late
The style thing is to make it look like you are in someone else's company, then reluctantly leave that group to join the newcomers.
( and hope no one notices the puzzled looks on the faces of the crowd you are leaving when you wish them farewell)
It was a few days last week as well.
Nige claiming Dave has managed to negotiate something in his favour...
Gone a bit off message then
TNS by the way.
So Hacker announces it to the press.... Sir Humphrey couldn't contradict him.
Cameron announces on TV that he has agreed to the new debate format formally presented by the broadcasters at the weekend.
Now Ed and the broadcasters can either agree they have been agreed, or run away crying.
Right now Ed is looking for his hanky...
@ChrisMasonBBC: UKIP: "...We intend to turn up for those two debates."
For a start, Nick has shot the Lib Dems in the foot if he comes across as toadying to Dave?
As for the rest of them, the can say they agreed to the previous format and Dave said no, so they don't have to accommodate his change of mind.
@paulwaugh: But add: "The broadcasters are continuing to work with all political parties on progs scheduled for March 26, April 16 and April 30"
They offered it to Cameron, who agreed it and announced it.
What about TNS? Have I missed something important?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-31917478
I can't make tonight's gathering, and hope you all have a good time.
Politics yes Jim, but not as we know it.
"It appears as though TNS big move from to CON one might be partly due to methodology change. No mention now weighting back to 2014 Euros"
Their Wisdom index has Tory largest party and the sample suggests that around a quarter of under 35's don't know if they are registered to vote. London is the worst region for that.
The biggest VI saying they aren't registered are Labour, seven times as many as the Tories.
Con Lead 3%
Yes, that was a smart move, along with the above inflation increase in election spend.
It seems like the second one can just go ahead with the other six parties. The third debate is more questionable, as the broadcasters will be unable to go ahead with just Miliband. The most likely outcome is the broadcasters extending an invite to Clegg and Farage for that debate. That will be very dangerous for David Cameron, as a Clegg, Farage and Miliband final debate may well be seen as the main event.
Surely they should be. Or at least the vast majority of them - say 80% - if we assume 20% do subsequently register.
Under the initial proposal there was NO programme on 26 March.
Whereas now they have specifically referred to 26 March.
Which means, by definition, they have now confirmed that they have changed their original proposal.
Six days time? I can foresee some tooth sucking and diary searching.
Whatever....A change in methodology usually makes previous polls bad for comparison.
But you might wish to differ.
Frankly the whole affair has become so sordid now I doubt I will bother with any of it and i suspect neither will most voters. I have no interest in watching dumb & dumber do their solo acts or the minority sects spend however long talking nonsense about the other parties and making deranged assertions about what will never happen and 7 was always too many to have any sensible sort of debate in 2 hours. I'll be boycotting the lot and hope that in future Ofcom and the Electoral Commission are allowed to step in and take control of this because all this is doing is bringing further disrepute upon our electoral system
And Cam gets to dictate terms to the lesser mortals?
That is going to look good for a Prime Minister who is rumoured to be aloof and out of touch.
A few links which may be useful:
http://www.iba.org.il/liveProgram.aspx?scode=1868217 (TV, Hebrew)
http://www.mako.co.il/mako-vod-live-tv/VOD-efacf0702f3fd31006.htm (TV, Hebrew)
http://www.i24news.tv/en/tv/livehome (TV, English)
http://bechirot.gov.il/election/English/pages/default.aspx (Official results, currently crashing)
http://www.haaretz.com/news/israel-election-2015/1.647304 (Liveblog)
http://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Election-Live-Blog-Follow-the-latest-updates-394059 (Liveblog)
http://knessetjeremy.com/2015/03/17/2015-knesset-jeremy-election-phase-2-prediction-analysis/ (Knesset Jeremy on what will happen after voting closes, and forming a new government)
Thanks
DC
I can understand why Labour aren't happy about it but they are not the ones holding the cards.
Nope, no one else will decide before next week, and then with one thing and another, it might cause a conflict with a prior arrangement.
("prior" as in "maximum convenience")