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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Take the 4-1 on the former Lord Mayor of London gaining Bas
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Take the 4-1 on the former Lord Mayor of London gaining Basildon South for UKIP
One of the best UKIP constituency bets at the moment is the 4/1 that’s available from several bookies on UKIP winning South Basildon and East Thurrock.
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A: Where's the food
B: The chef went home, there's sandwiches and beer in the fridge
A: Are you having a laugh ?
B: Are you still complaining about your stomach ?
A: Have at ye, varlet etc
Natasha Bolter being parachuted in; exposed in the press as enjoying the support of Bird; resigning only to have Neil Hamilton nominated then withdrawn and Kerry Smith chosen. He too withdrew after some rather inappropriate remarks and Luder being chosen. He had been in the earlier rounds but not selected.
This may not be the well honed and focussed local party needed for a strong ground game.
Indeed Mr Fox, Ian Luder replaced UKIP candidate Kerry Smith, after he was recorded making offensive remarks about fellow party members.
According to his Wiki bio, Mr Luder has an impressive CV.
http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30708132
Independents do not have a good record in GE's, but a lot depends on how local activists feel. I think that I will sit this one out. 4/1 does not look to be particularly good value to me.
M Smithsons prob right & worth a flutter but only if low stakes.
http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2009/jan/31/family-life-grandparents-son
It sounds as if his Grandfather was another Romanian refugee done good, despite the difficulties with his passport.
Luder does seem to have been effective at turning around Basildon Hospital, which does seem to have improved over the last five years:
http://www.theguardian.com/healthcare-network/2014/nov/14/basildon-hospital-turned-around-clare-panniker
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/15/grant-shapps-admits-he-had-second-job-as-millioniare-web-marketer-while-mp
The politics of envy is alive and well. It would have been unremarked if he had been a "poor" web marketer.
Mike must still be on the sauce following the Burnley FC win against the Man City 2nd XI on Saturday.
Does relegation still threaten Burnley as well as Ukip ?? .... are Ukip Leicester in disguise .... will Burnley win the Champions League in season 2016/2017 ??
If UKIP polls in the low to mid teens he loses. And I think they will.
That was in the days of course when football clubs usually had as directors local men (and it was always men!) with local pride, who’d often grown up supporting the team.
OGH backed Farage against Bercow. Weight accordingly.
UNS overstates Labour and will understate the Lib Dems (Even though the Lib Dems will underperform UNS in places...)
Certainly, if the police start taking more of an interest or the guy that Green's lawyers stamped on, gets his legal team in action, then things could change. But don't see it happening.
It is not about him having a second job but about lying that he never did as an MP including in a radio interview done 3 weeks ago which is on Youtube.
Now that the Guardian has found a audio recording of him marketeering as Michael Green oin 2006,his memory has been rekindled.
Never bought anything off him my self, read too many comments and reports at the time which, er, were not polite about the material from the future Chair of the Conservative Party
I wonder if Ed Milliband would have been forced out if UKIP had won.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-31895703
After all the bad publicity MPs have had on their expenses, not least her predecessor, she must be either very thick or very greedy to have done this.
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2996235/At-man-dares-tell-truth-race-Ex-race-tsar-says-silencing-debate-devastating-harm-Britain.html
Peter, you are getting up unreasonably early. Can't sleep, or looking for an early bet?
"It is not about him having a second job but about lying that he never did as an MP including in a radio interview done 3 weeks ago which is on Youtube."
Isn't the difficulty that no one spends more of their time accusing the opposition of lying and as one of the figurheads of the election campaign won't his pit bull persona get tested to breaking point when every time he opens his mouth he's asked about his own terminiological inexactitudes?
Good news! The third episode of Zodiac Eclipse, my mini-series, is up here: http://www.kraxon.com/zodiac-eclipse-a-warm-welcome/
88,888 seconds
PoliticsHome @politicshome 32m32 minutes ago
Zac Goldsmith has been warned off mounting a late bid for London Mayor by a potential rival http://polho.me/1Fr81mW
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11474084/Why-some-Scottish-Tories-will-vote-Labour.html
Is there any polling evidence to back up this anacdata?
"An Ad Man describing another as 'oleaginous'. Funny guy, Roger"
You struggle to differentiate the creatives who cant be categorized as oleaginous and the others like Michael Green who come in all shapes and sizes. Just look at everyones favourite oik basher
As Mike says, Ukip were ahead before turnout weighting in the Ashcroft poll and what is equally noteworthy is Ukip won the seat at the euros by a bigger margin than they 'won' next door Thurrock where they are best price 4/6
If you think Ukip have a decent chance in Thurrock, you have to be on this at 4/1, it really is a no brainer
This seat also came out as one of Ukips most likely wins using my system of interpreting 2010 results... Untested as yet, but some decent value bets have come out of it
Finally, despite some on here thinking Tim aker in Thurrock won't get much support from Ukip activists (?) , Ukip are a massive presence in Thurrock with full time activists having moved there from London and the North to work for Aker, and they are also campaigning for Luder, so there will be a lot of support for him from the party
Jon Cruddas, Labour’s policy co-ordinator, said the 115-year old party could simply “disintegrate in real time”.
The remarks are particularly noteworthy, given Mr Cruddas’ job description is often given as rebuilding the party in the wake of New Labour.
During a debate about digital democracy, he was asked whether Labour might to the same way as social democratic parties in Greece and Spain which have been outflanked by radical anti-austerity movements such as Syriza and Podemos.
Asked whether the Labour Party might "not exist" within ten years, Mr Cruddas, a reknowned free-thinker, replied: “Yes, yes.”
“There is no safe ground for any orthodox parties and the stakes could be high potentially. They could just disintegrate in real time. And I include in that the party that I represent."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11473827/
To all the -ves below we need to add then that he's a flip flopper - Liberal Democract, Labour, UKIP.
Its one thing to defect another to flipflop.
So re. this market, I'm out.
Lo and behold at 730am and 8am news on BBC R4 it was the lead story.....
1. Private provider involvement has actually slowed since 2005
2. No extra charges or top-ups have taken place in the NHS since 2010 – and none whatsoever are forecast.
3. Administration costs have fallen significantly since 2010
4. There is no evidence that TTIP (Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership) threatens the NHS.
A cynic might point out that these facts are all in direct conflict with Labour’s Armageddon narrative about the NHS – which, in the absence of any economic argument or sense anywhere else, they see as their one, single “weapon” as Ed Milliband referred to it, in the election.
http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2015/03/charlotte-leslie-mp-an-appeal-to-my-labour-colleagues-the-public-needs-to-see-this-nhs-report-so-lets-agree-it.html
I know that area too and with a good candidate I agree with Mike, this is a value bet
THE PURPLE REVOLUTION by @Nigel_Farage is still climbing the Amazon chart. Now at No 26! Can it make the top 10?! http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/1849548633/ref=s9_simh_bw_p14_d0_i1?pf_rd_m=A3P5ROKL5A1OLE&pf_rd_s=merchandised-search-
Looks like an autobiography that will reach the parts that others won't or can't.
If they have the right candidate, they ought to go close.
Agree that 4/1 is a crazy price.
he dropped his ambitions for a political career and became head of the Commission for Racial Equality
PMSL!!
Adjust accordingly.
Thurrock 4/6 maybe too short in some peoples opinion, but both seats should be the same price.
The constituency boundary is at the end of my (very long) road so I know the area. Like many other Essex seats it is perfect kipper territory
Things are so bad for the LDs that they get very little publicity even when there are major splits with a Farron faction lining up against Clegg and the "old guard"*.
http://www.libdemvoice.org/tim-farron-and-trying-too-hard-45025.html
The problem may have been that it was an article in the Mail and not the Guardian/Observer so the BBC are not running on it today.....
*Shirley Williams was also underwhelming in her support for Farron in a recent interview. Although he is the Foreign spokesperson for the LDs, Shirl said he "he's not a foreign policy man".
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2176841/Lying-misleading-Parliament-criminal-offence.html
Even so, a decent value bet. OGH's recommendations usually are.
Labour must do a deal with the SNP
A more social democratic Britain can be achieved, and Scottish Labour's recovery set in train, if a deal is done between Labour and the SNP.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/03/labour-must-do-deal-snp
But for the Guardian/BBC axis to ink this onto their election grid in advance and then bring this out of the drawer is tiresome when next up they will be whining about negative campaigning - its a fair enough attack but don't pretend you aren't the Mail for lefties.
''Today, I am sending an unequivocal message that professionals who fail to protect children will be held properly accountable and council bosses who preside over such catastrophic failure will not see rewards for that failure.
Offenders must no longer be able to use the system to hide their despicable activities ... It is about making sure that the professionals we charge with protecting our children – the council staff, police officer and social workers – do the jobs they are paid to do.'' (Cameron)
But then again you regularly smear Cameron with lazy names.