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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Take the 4-1 on the former Lord Mayor of London gaining Bas

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  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,054
    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    Schapps may or may not have screwed up.

    But for the Guardian/BBC axis to ink this onto their election grid in advance and then bring this out of the drawer is tiresome when next up they will be whining about negative campaigning - its a fair enough attack but don't pretend you aren't the Mail for lefties.

    Sarah Champion poppy wreath story top of the "Most read".
    On the Guardian website ?
    BBC
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    FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    Roger said:

    No market yet on whether the oleaginous Grant Shapps is the next Cabinet Minister to get his marching orders?

    An Ad Man describing another as 'oleaginous'. Funny guy, Roger.
    ''Marching orders'' for declaring your interests as a company director all as required? He is hilarious. No sorry, desperate.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 2015

    isam said:

    Financier said:

    The piece by Trevor Phillips in advance of his TV programme is well worth a read.

    www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2996235/At-man-dares-tell-truth-race-Ex-race-tsar-says-silencing-debate-devastating-harm-Britain.html

    Thank God a non white person has said this, maybe someone will listen now. Well done Trevor Phillips... had he posted that anonymously on here he would have been smeared with all the lazy names under the sun
    He is saying nothing new.
    ''Today, I am sending an unequivocal message that professionals who fail to protect children will be held properly accountable and council bosses who preside over such catastrophic failure will not see rewards for that failure.
    Offenders must no longer be able to use the system to hide their despicable activities ... It is about making sure that the professionals we charge with protecting our children – the council staff, police officer and social workers – do the jobs they are paid to do.'' (Cameron)

    But then again you regularly smear Cameron with lazy names.
    No I don't regularly smear Cameron with lazy names, in fact I doubt I ever have

    Add to that Cameron isn't addressing the issue that Phillips talks of and I can only say...

    Wrong again ting tong!
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    Schapps may or may not have screwed up.

    But for the Guardian/BBC axis to ink this onto their election grid in advance and then bring this out of the drawer is tiresome when next up they will be whining about negative campaigning - its a fair enough attack but don't pretend you aren't the Mail for lefties.

    Sarah Champion poppy wreath story top of the "Most read".
    On the Guardian website ?
    BBC
    BBC detachment from their audience isn't news. This Clarkson story continues to damage the brand - then need to save Top Gear or it will seriously damage the reasons to renew the licence fee.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193

    Yesterday evening on here it was predicted that the BBC would lead with this as it was in the in house favourite newspaper of BBC staff aka the Guardian.
    Lo and behold at 730am and 8am news on BBC R4 it was the lead story.....
    A party chairman accused of lying about his activity while an MP seems a fairly substantial story, don't you think? It's the Times Red Box second lead as well, and the press don't usually like highlighting each others' stories.
    How about Nick talking about issues that are really harming people?

    Or the Labour members of the Health Select Committee attempting to block publication of a report because the evidence they have gathered contradicts their attack lines on a Weaponised NHS?
    Now THAT is a political story....
  • Options
    Rotherham is another seat I know well (having lived there and family still there). Its by no means as clear cut as Basildon Sth but I think UKIP have a decent chance. Even before the scandal there was adecwnt contingent of voters sick of the inept in power forever Labour group - and I'm referring to Labour voters. The poppy mini-scandal won't help her chances of keeping the seat
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    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Ricardo said:

    0/1 - will ICM follow Spurs and also let me down!

    OGH backed Farage against Bercow. Weight accordingly.

    rcs1000 said:

    Hmmm: would that be Ian Luder from Bedford, by any chance? Whose daughter was at school with OGH's daughter?

    Some reasons here to ignore M Smithsons tip then. Sorry Mr S'son but personal agenda doesn't go well with betting. Innocent question whether you and he are still friends and if so shouldn't you declare it if you're offering up a tip? Might look like your trying to boost his cred otherwise? Innocent q.

    To all the -ves below we need to add then that he's a flip flopper - Liberal Democract, Labour, UKIP.

    Its one thing to defect another to flipflop.

    So re. this market, I'm out.
    Hmmmm, I'm not so sure, a little inside info on a prospective bet can be a good thing.

    I know that area too and with a good candidate I agree with Mike, this is a value bet
    Guessing from your login that you're a ukip supporter?

    Adjust accordingly.
    Yes, I am.

    I am also a semi professional punter and know a value bet when I see one.

    I would suggest that you dislike UKIP intensely, which is fair enough, but you are letting your hatred put you off a value bet. You will never make money with that attitude.
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Re Blairs lie in the HOC..apart from the tragic consequences for millions of people, which is still on going..I was personally pi%%ed off because I watched him make that speech and tell that lie..and I believed him.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,054

    Rotherham is another seat I know well (having lived there and family still there). Its by no means as clear cut as Basildon Sth but I think UKIP have a decent chance. Even before the scandal there was adecwnt contingent of voters sick of the inept in power forever Labour group - and I'm referring to Labour voters. The poppy mini-scandal won't help her chances of keeping the seat

    7.2k shares on that story.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    First, a story to warm a lot of peoples hearts.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11473827/Miliband-aide-Labour-could-be-extinct-in-a-decade.html

    And do Labour REALLY think this is a good idea?

    "It emerged this weekend that Labour is considering proposals to force companies to share their profits.

    Under plans being studied by the shadow cabinet, firms with more than 50 staff will be obliged to set up a profit-sharing scheme, with workers being handed a cash sum based on their employers’ financial position."

    Back to the 70's with Ed - perhaps the "red" tag was more apt than some thought.

    Plus some anecdotes from weekend

    25 yo son seriously thinking of voting UKIP - younger girlfriend (his, not mine!) "cant vote for them"

    My wife surprised me by saying that after giving it some thought she is now inclined to vote UKIP. Up ttil then she was down as a nailed on Lib Dem vote.

    Me, I still cant make my mind up but will see if the conservative candidate replies to my comments on his survey.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,054
    The Good Lord doesn't only bring us a multitude of polling data:

    Does a fine job supporting our men and women in service too:

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2015/03/lord-ashcroft-why-we-should-all-support-a-memorial-for-those-who-served-in-the-gulf-wars-iraq-and-afghanistan.html
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,436
    Shapps says he "over firmly" denied continuing his writing career - under the pen name Michael Green - when he entered the Commons in 2005.

    Surely destined to enter the pantheon of euphemisms for telling porkies - misspoke, economical with the actualité etc.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,436

    Re Blairs lie in the HOC..apart from the tragic consequences for millions of people, which is still on going..I was personally pi%%ed off because I watched him make that speech and tell that lie..and I believed him.

    Suckah.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,054

    Shapps says he "over firmly" denied continuing his writing career - under the pen name Michael Green - when he entered the Commons in 2005.

    Surely destined to enter the pantheon of euphemisms for telling porkies - misspoke, economical with the actualité etc.

    I had a little chuckle at that expression in the car this morning :)
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Floater said:

    Under plans being studied by the shadow cabinet, firms with more than 50 staff will be obliged to set up a profit-sharing scheme, with workers being handed a cash sum based on their employers’ financial position."

    Like bank bonuses?
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    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    The biggest lie of recent years and made in the HOC was Blairs when he said he had seen incontrovertible evidence of WMD...He hadn't...and a lot of people paid for his lie with their lives.

    You would think that people with real principles would want Blair impeached over it. The massive loss of life, limbs and billions of £ wasted. Built on lies. But instead we have Nick on here upset over an MP making a mistake as to what they did 9 - 10 years ago in running a business....
    Looking at NP's voting record on inquiries into Iraq you could come away with the firm impression that he was vehemently against raking over the past. It's confusing.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,976
    Divvie

    "Shapps says he "over firmly" denied continuing his writing career - under the pen name Michael Green - when he entered the Commons in 2005."

    That REALLY made me laugh!!
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    chestnut said:

    Floater said:

    Under plans being studied by the shadow cabinet, firms with more than 50 staff will be obliged to set up a profit-sharing scheme, with workers being handed a cash sum based on their employers’ financial position."

    Like bank bonuses?
    Like employee share ownership schemes - which Labour hacked away at under Brown ?

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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,411
    chestnut said:

    Floater said:

    Under plans being studied by the shadow cabinet, firms with more than 50 staff will be obliged to set up a profit-sharing scheme, with workers being handed a cash sum based on their employers’ financial position."

    Like bank bonuses?
    It works so well in France...oh wait....
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Isn’t he also a former Chair of Basildon Hospital which has had it’s problems over the past few years?

    He wrote this piece on his family origins in the Guardian:

    http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2009/jan/31/family-life-grandparents-son

    It sounds as if his Grandfather was another Romanian refugee done good, despite the difficulties with his passport.

    Luder does seem to have been effective at turning around Basildon Hospital, which does seem to have improved over the last five years:

    http://www.theguardian.com/healthcare-network/2014/nov/14/basildon-hospital-turned-around-clare-panniker
    Several years ago I needed to be hospitalised and because of where I lived at the time was given a choice of Chelmsford or Basildon hospitals.

    Comments from people we knew made it clear to choose "anything but Basildon".

    Mind you, I was not impressed by Chelmsford, especially the cleanliness of the ward.

    If Basildon has been turned around that is great news.

    Mind you, my local hospital is now Colchester .... which has its own problems.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,411
    edited March 2015
    Labour's top donor: Tuition fees cut will hurt British universities and will not help 'working class'

    John Mills, Labour's biggest individual donor, says Ed Miliband's flagship education policy will leave universities 'less secure' and warns against doing a deal with the SNP

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11474284/Labours-top-donor-Tuition-fees-cut-will-hurt-British-universities-and-will-not-help-working-class.html

    You wonder why some people give money to political parties when they seem to disagree with so many of their policies.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,950

    Re Blairs lie in the HOC..apart from the tragic consequences for millions of people, which is still on going..I was personally pi%%ed off because I watched him make that speech and tell that lie..and I believed him.

    As I recall, the only man even more in favour of military action was the Conservative Party leader, Iain Duncan-Smith.

    Those who were opposed and doubted Blair's decision were subject to insults and vilification including charges of not being sufficiently patriotic. That presumably included the huge numbers who marched in London almost twelve years ago to the day in opposition to military action.

    As an aside, I note the BBC reporting Saddam Hussein's mausoleum has been destroyed in the fighting around Tikrit - there's an irony there somewhere but I can't quite find it.
  • Options

    The biggest lie of recent years and made in the HOC was Blairs when he said he had seen incontrovertible evidence of WMD...He hadn't...and a lot of people paid for his lie with their lives.

    You would think that people with real principles would want Blair impeached over it. The massive loss of life, limbs and billions of £ wasted. Built on lies. But instead we have Nick on here upset over an MP making a mistake as to what they did 9 - 10 years ago in running a business....
    I think Blair established beyond all doubt that lying to the House is in fact OK. If there is no comeback for lying to the House to start a war to get your name in the history books, then lying by omission by forgetting what you were doing a few years ago looks positively meritorious.
    Ishmael_X said:

    This weekend's news that Nigel Farage, like his hero, is a monorchid, explains him completely. I haven't read the articles obvs but I'm assuming it wasn't tribute surgery, like the Wacko Jacko / Diana Ross stuff.

    Is it National Let's all laugh at cancer victims day? Or the ill and/or disabled more generally?
    I'm more about laughing at fools who blame literally everything on immigrants.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,053
    edited March 2015
    Mr. K, although I'm far from neutral, Kraxon's a pretty cool online magazine. Free short stories, mostly stand-alone but every year there's a 12 x 1,000 word story mini-series [Zodiac Eclipse is 2015's].

    You should probably start with part 1: http://www.kraxon.com/zodiac-eclipse-rebirth/

    I've got a second, unrelated story up this month which, by chance, is on the theme of an eclipse.

    [Apologies for the lengthy reply time, immediately after my first post of the day I had to leave for a while].

    Edited extra bit: for those who missed it, my post-race analysis is up here:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/australia-post-race-analysis.html

    Not a classic, but I do think we learnt a lot of interesting stuff.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    stodge said:

    Re Blairs lie in the HOC..apart from the tragic consequences for millions of people, which is still on going..I was personally pi%%ed off because I watched him make that speech and tell that lie..and I believed him.

    As I recall, the only man even more in favour of military action was the Conservative Party leader, Iain Duncan-Smith.

    Those who were opposed and doubted Blair's decision were subject to insults and vilification including charges of not being sufficiently patriotic. That presumably included the huge numbers who marched in London almost twelve years ago to the day in opposition to military action.

    As an aside, I note the BBC reporting Saddam Hussein's mausoleum has been destroyed in the fighting around Tikrit - there's an irony there somewhere but I can't quite find it.
    Seems a bit harsh on IDS - he was being fed information in " dossiers" which the Blair regime would have control over. He didn't have his own network of spies to brief him on the real situation.

  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,022

    MikeK said:

    The Mayoral infighting spreads:
    PoliticsHome ‏@politicshome 32m32 minutes ago
    Zac Goldsmith has been warned off mounting a late bid for London Mayor by a potential rival http://polho.me/1Fr81mW

    Just handbags?
    Zac Goldsmith is a well-liked and effective MP who will be re-elected to Richmond Park with no problem.. I have £500 on him at 1-10 to give a 10% tax free return.

    I don't think he has expressed any interest in running for London Mayor. I'd be surprised if it would attract him. But I can understand that he is "reportedly being urged by some Tories to enter the race". He would be an attractive candidate.

    I can also understand why Ivan Massow wants Goldsmith to clarify his intentions before the GE.. Massow is also an attractive candidate (I'm on him at 28-1) who is actively and, I think, effectively pursuing his candidature as next Mayor.
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Stodge.. Blair lied .. IDS didn't
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    edited March 2015
    TUG "Sukah" .. so were the hundreds of thousands who died..surprised to see you think it somehow funny
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    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Ishmael_X said:

    This weekend's news that Nigel Farage, like his hero, is a monorchid, explains him completely. I haven't read the articles obvs but I'm assuming it wasn't tribute surgery, like the Wacko Jacko / Diana Ross stuff.

    Is it National Let's all laugh at cancer victims day? Or the ill and/or disabled more generally?
    I'm more about laughing at fools who blame literally everything on immigrants.
    Oh, is that how it works? So for instance someone who disagreed with the pupil premium, would be justified in calling David Laws a poofter?
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,976
    The Tories and Scottish Nats on here are by far the best supporters. They'd give the Stretford End a run for their money.

    Labour have never had those sort of unwavering supporters and UKIPers spend all their time doing a Millwall.

    Nobody likes us and we don't care
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    stodge said:

    Re Blairs lie in the HOC..apart from the tragic consequences for millions of people, which is still on going..I was personally pi%%ed off because I watched him make that speech and tell that lie..and I believed him.

    As I recall, the only man even more in favour of military action was the Conservative Party leader, Iain Duncan-Smith.
    Stodge, when was IDS in the Blair government?
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,976
    edited March 2015
    Izzy

    "Oh, is that how it works? So for instance someone who disagreed with the pupil premium, would be justified in calling David Laws a poofter?"

    You'd have to have a heart of stone not to have found Antifrank's 'malignancy' joke funny
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    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Roger said:

    Izzy

    "Oh, is that how it works? So for instance someone who disagreed with the pupil premium, would be justified in calling David Laws a poofter?"

    You'd have to have a heart of stone not to have found Antifrank's 'malignancy' joke funny'

    Repeat it and I'll have a go.

    If it's along the lines of "found the only bit of Farage that wasn't malignant and removed it" it's plagiarised from Evelyn Waugh.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,950

    Stodge.. Blair lied .. IDS didn't

    I don't believe I suggested IDS lied and that's certainly not a charge anyone could level at him in this instance.

    My issue is he was ready to believe the case for military action and for British involvement in that action. Others were more sceptical about the evidence and the justification and those on the Conservative side were only too happy to join in the vilification of those arguing for Iraq not to be invaded.

    To their credit, some Conservatives have come forward since 2003 and admitted their error and claimed they were misled. Indeed or at the very least presented with information whose authenticity was later brought into serious question.

    That entire period, from the beginning of 2003 up to the tragic death of David Kelly, remains, to my mind, one of the worst in our recent political history. Unfortunately, I fear little or nothing has been learned from it.

  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,740

    Stodge.. Blair lied .. IDS didn't

    What was amazing, even at the time, was that so many people believed the 45 minutes rubbish.
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/3466005.stm
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,170
    edited March 2015
    Floater said:

    Isn’t he also a former Chair of Basildon Hospital which has had it’s problems over the past few years?

    He wrote this piece on his family origins in the Guardian:

    http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2009/jan/31/family-life-grandparents-son

    It sounds as if his Grandfather was another Romanian refugee done good, despite the difficulties with his passport.

    Luder does seem to have been effective at turning around Basildon Hospital, which does seem to have improved over the last five years:

    http://www.theguardian.com/healthcare-network/2014/nov/14/basildon-hospital-turned-around-clare-panniker
    Several years ago I needed to be hospitalised and because of where I lived at the time was given a choice of Chelmsford or Basildon hospitals.

    Comments from people we knew made it clear to choose "anything but Basildon".

    Mind you, I was not impressed by Chelmsford, especially the cleanliness of the ward.

    If Basildon has been turned around that is great news.

    Mind you, my local hospital is now Colchester .... which has its own problems.
    Been very impressed with Chelmsford, especially, except for one person the last time I went, the courtesy and general attitude of the staff. That’s mostly out-patients admittedly; haven’t been “in” for several years.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,266

    Alan Cochrane peddling the 'Scots Tories to Vote Labour' line again:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11474084/Why-some-Scottish-Tories-will-vote-Labour.html

    Is there any polling evidence to back up this anacdata?

    Cochrane is not the full shilling , why would any sane Tory voter want to help the merde that is Scottish Labour
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,266
    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    Schapps may or may not have screwed up.

    But for the Guardian/BBC axis to ink this onto their election grid in advance and then bring this out of the drawer is tiresome when next up they will be whining about negative campaigning - its a fair enough attack but don't pretend you aren't the Mail for lefties.

    Sarah Champion poppy wreath story top of the "Most read".
    You have to wonder how low MP's can go , certainly lower than rattlesnakes for sure , greedy money grasping fake lowlifes.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    malcolmg said:

    Alan Cochrane peddling the 'Scots Tories to Vote Labour' line again:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11474084/Why-some-Scottish-Tories-will-vote-Labour.html

    Is there any polling evidence to back up this anacdata?

    Cochrane is not the full shilling , why would any sane Tory voter want to help the merde that is Scottish Labour
    Indeed - they might vote for a LD at a push - but Slab ? Nah.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,053
    Mr. Song, to be fair, trusting that the PM won't spout bullshit when presenting the case for war to Parliament should be a natural state of affairs.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    TGOHF said:

    stodge said:

    Re Blairs lie in the HOC..apart from the tragic consequences for millions of people, which is still on going..I was personally pi%%ed off because I watched him make that speech and tell that lie..and I believed him.

    As I recall, the only man even more in favour of military action was the Conservative Party leader, Iain Duncan-Smith.

    Those who were opposed and doubted Blair's decision were subject to insults and vilification including charges of not being sufficiently patriotic. That presumably included the huge numbers who marched in London almost twelve years ago to the day in opposition to military action.

    As an aside, I note the BBC reporting Saddam Hussein's mausoleum has been destroyed in the fighting around Tikrit - there's an irony there somewhere but I can't quite find it.
    Seems a bit harsh on IDS - he was being fed information in " dossiers" which the Blair regime would have control over. He didn't have his own network of spies to brief him on the real situation.

    Not "a bit harsh on IDS" at all.

    Most of the Conservative parliamentary party were full tilt for the Iraq war before the dodgy dossiers made their infamous appearance. They feared being outflanked by a hawkish Blair and even criticised Blair for not undertaking military strikes earlier.

    There were notable Conservative exceptions such a Ken Clarke who saw through the government bluster from the start but he was very much in the minority in the HoC.

  • Options
    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    malcolmg said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    Schapps may or may not have screwed up.

    But for the Guardian/BBC axis to ink this onto their election grid in advance and then bring this out of the drawer is tiresome when next up they will be whining about negative campaigning - its a fair enough attack but don't pretend you aren't the Mail for lefties.

    Sarah Champion poppy wreath story top of the "Most read".
    You have to wonder how low MP's can go , certainly lower than rattlesnakes for sure , greedy money grasping fake lowlifes.
    Not as low as SNP MSP John "two wreaths" Wilson, malc:

    http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/local-news/msp-pays-back-remembrance-day-2609526

    Though as this is undoubtedly something a M(S)P does in an official capacity I don't understand the fuss.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,170
    malcolmg said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    Schapps may or may not have screwed up.

    But for the Guardian/BBC axis to ink this onto their election grid in advance and then bring this out of the drawer is tiresome when next up they will be whining about negative campaigning - its a fair enough attack but don't pretend you aren't the Mail for lefties.

    Sarah Champion poppy wreath story top of the "Most read".
    You have to wonder how low MP's can go , certainly lower than rattlesnakes for sure , greedy money grasping fake lowlifes.
    Do MP’s fill in these forms themselves or do they have a secretarial person to do it for them? Just asking.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,170
    JackW said:

    TGOHF said:

    stodge said:

    Re Blairs lie in the HOC..apart from the tragic consequences for millions of people, which is still on going..I was personally pi%%ed off because I watched him make that speech and tell that lie..and I believed him.

    As I recall, the only man even more in favour of military action was the Conservative Party leader, Iain Duncan-Smith.

    Those who were opposed and doubted Blair's decision were subject to insults and vilification including charges of not being sufficiently patriotic. That presumably included the huge numbers who marched in London almost twelve years ago to the day in opposition to military action.

    As an aside, I note the BBC reporting Saddam Hussein's mausoleum has been destroyed in the fighting around Tikrit - there's an irony there somewhere but I can't quite find it.
    Seems a bit harsh on IDS - he was being fed information in " dossiers" which the Blair regime would have control over. He didn't have his own network of spies to brief him on the real situation.

    Not "a bit harsh on IDS" at all.

    Most of the Conservative parliamentary party were full tilt for the Iraq war before the dodgy dossiers made their infamous appearance. They feared being outflanked by a hawkish Blair and even criticised Blair for not undertaking military strikes earlier.

    There were notable Conservative exceptions such a Ken Clarke who saw through the government bluster from the start but he was very much in the minority in the HoC.

    He usually is nowadays!

    Charlie Kennedy was briefed and didn’t believe it.
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Stodge.. we were discussing people who had lied in the HOC..Lots of people were taken in by Blair and his dodgy dossier..No one would believe that a PM would take the country to war on a deliberate lie..Kelly was just one of many victims of his lying
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,959
    Today's predictions (Just For Fun)

    Populus - Lab Lead 2%

    Lord Ashcroft - Con Lead 1%

    ICM - Lab Lead 1%

    YouGov - Con/Lab Tie

    #megapollingmonday
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,976
    Izzy

    "If it's along the lines of "found the only bit of Farage that wasn't malignant and removed it" it's plagiarised from Evelyn Waugh."

    It was. You're well read
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,054
    I've examined Stephen Fisher's model in relation to the current bookie prices: http://ponyonthetories.blogspot.co.uk/
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    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Roger said:

    Izzy

    "If it's along the lines of "found the only bit of Farage that wasn't malignant and removed it" it's plagiarised from Evelyn Waugh."

    It was. You're well read

    Gotcha!
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    OFCOM confirms the Greens not a major party

    http://media.ofcom.org.uk/news/2015/major-parties-statement/
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,266
    Ishmael_X said:

    malcolmg said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    Schapps may or may not have screwed up.

    But for the Guardian/BBC axis to ink this onto their election grid in advance and then bring this out of the drawer is tiresome when next up they will be whining about negative campaigning - its a fair enough attack but don't pretend you aren't the Mail for lefties.

    Sarah Champion poppy wreath story top of the "Most read".
    You have to wonder how low MP's can go , certainly lower than rattlesnakes for sure , greedy money grasping fake lowlifes.
    Not as low as SNP MSP John "two wreaths" Wilson, malc:

    http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/local-news/msp-pays-back-remembrance-day-2609526

    Though as this is undoubtedly something a M(S)P does in an official capacity I don't understand the fuss.
    I did not differentiate , I said MP's in general , you can add MSp's etc as well , and whilst there may be a few honest conscientious ones out there regardless of party most seem to have their primary interest as filling their bank books and not using their salaries or own money for anything.
    Two wrongs do not make a right and I have no great opinion of SNP politicians as opposed to others. Best of a bad lot for sure but very far from ideal or perfect is best I would say.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,054

    OFCOM confirms the Greens not a major party

    http://media.ofcom.org.uk/news/2015/major-parties-statement/

    They need to focus their campaigns on Bristol West and Norwich South whilst putting up paper candidates elsewhere.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193
    edited March 2015
    GIN1138 said:

    Today's predictions (Just For Fun)

    Populus - Lab Lead 2%

    Lord Ashcroft - Con Lead 1%

    ICM - Lab Lead 1%

    YouGov - Con/Lab Tie

    #megapollingmonday

    Isn't it Labour's turn to have a go on His Lordship's Bouncy Castle of Polling?
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,266

    malcolmg said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    Schapps may or may not have screwed up.

    But for the Guardian/BBC axis to ink this onto their election grid in advance and then bring this out of the drawer is tiresome when next up they will be whining about negative campaigning - its a fair enough attack but don't pretend you aren't the Mail for lefties.

    Sarah Champion poppy wreath story top of the "Most read".
    You have to wonder how low MP's can go , certainly lower than rattlesnakes for sure , greedy money grasping fake lowlifes.
    Do MP’s fill in these forms themselves or do they have a secretarial person to do it for them? Just asking.
    I thought most of them had their wives/ girlfriends running their offices. Usually claiming they are highly skilled as well. They must give some instruction , hand over the receipts to be claimed etc, I doubt the office staff rummage in a bin load of receipts to choose what is claimed. It is however usually put down to an administration / flunkey mistake when they are rumbled.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,266
    malcolmg said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    malcolmg said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    Schapps may or may not have screwed up.

    But for the Guardian/BBC axis to ink this onto their election grid in advance and then bring this out of the drawer is tiresome when next up they will be whining about negative campaigning - its a fair enough attack but don't pretend you aren't the Mail for lefties.

    Sarah Champion poppy wreath story top of the "Most read".
    You have to wonder how low MP's can go , certainly lower than rattlesnakes for sure , greedy money grasping fake lowlifes.
    Not as low as SNP MSP John "two wreaths" Wilson, malc:

    http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/local-news/msp-pays-back-remembrance-day-2609526

    Though as this is undoubtedly something a M(S)P does in an official capacity I don't understand the fuss.
    I did not differentiate , I said MP's in general , you can add MSp's etc as well , and whilst there may be a few honest conscientious ones out there regardless of party most seem to have their primary interest as filling their bank books and not using their salaries or own money for anything.
    Two wrongs do not make a right and I have no great opinion of SNP politicians as opposed to others. Best of a bad lot for sure but very far from ideal or perfect is best I would say.
    There are just some things that you should pay for yourself regardless of legality of claiming them back. It shows a real lack of understanding / morals etc when they claim things that any normal person would know is just not proper.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,054

    OFCOM confirms the Greens not a major party

    http://media.ofcom.org.uk/news/2015/major-parties-statement/

    Schoolboy error committed by Conservative voters not answering opinion pollsters with "Green". A point to note for strategists next time.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    GIN1138 said:

    Today's predictions (Just For Fun)

    Populus - Lab Lead 2%

    Lord Ashcroft - Con Lead 1%

    ICM - Lab Lead 1%

    YouGov - Con/Lab Tie

    #megapollingmonday

    Lab leads in Populus of 2, Ashcroft 4, ICM 5. Yougov 3
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,170
    Pulpstar said:

    OFCOM confirms the Greens not a major party

    http://media.ofcom.org.uk/news/2015/major-parties-statement/

    They need to focus their campaigns on Bristol West and Norwich South whilst putting up paper candidates elsewhere.
    Brighton Pavilion?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,054

    Pulpstar said:

    OFCOM confirms the Greens not a major party

    http://media.ofcom.org.uk/news/2015/major-parties-statement/

    They need to focus their campaigns on Bristol West and Norwich South whilst putting up paper candidates elsewhere.
    Brighton Pavilion?
    Easy hold.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    OFCOM confirms the Greens not a major party

    http://media.ofcom.org.uk/news/2015/major-parties-statement/

    Does that mean they aren't invited to the debates that aren't happening ?
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,740

    Mr. Song, to be fair, trusting that the PM won't spout bullshit when presenting the case for war to Parliament should be a natural state of affairs.

    'Should' is the operative word - and I can't disagree.
    However, most people who are interested enough to follow current affairs and politics, even posting on here must have known that Blair had already signed up to Bush's wars. He was going to say whatever was necessary to get it past the HoC. If we 'knew' that, surely every Member of Parliament must have known it too. They voted the way they did knowing, or at the very least strongly suspecting, that that was the case.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    stodge said:

    My issue is he was ready to believe the case for military action and for British involvement in that action. Others were more sceptical about the evidence and the justification and those on the Conservative side were only too happy to join in the vilification of those arguing for Iraq not to be invaded.

    Former Guards officer accepts intelligence at face value and recommends military action... someone pass that bear the toilet tissue.

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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,411
    edited March 2015
    Nice bit of bias by omission by the BBC...

    Conservative colleagues have voiced their support for Mr Shapps, Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt suggesting the criticism of him was "incredible".

    He tweeted: "His sin not to use pseudonym but to write books about how to create wealth - shock horror."

    Except that isn't what he tweeted...

    Unbelievable Lab/Guard/BBC attack on @grantshapps. His sin not 2 use pseudonym but 2 write books about how 2 create wealth - shock horror...
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,054
    Kellner has been gradually bumping his Nat seats forecasts. If Labour end up with 31 and the Tories 36, then Labour are heading sub 250.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,054
    I don't think it'll be a 5 pt gap come election day though.
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,024
    If that turns out to be correct, it's really hard to see how a government of any sort can be formed.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,170
    Indigo said:

    stodge said:

    My issue is he was ready to believe the case for military action and for British involvement in that action. Others were more sceptical about the evidence and the justification and those on the Conservative side were only too happy to join in the vilification of those arguing for Iraq not to be invaded.

    Former Guards officer accepts intelligence at face value and recommends military action... someone pass that bear the toilet tissue.

    Conditioned to believe what he was told by the experts!

    “Our artillery has taken out the German trenches”!
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,789
    edited March 2015
    TGOHF said:

    OFCOM confirms the Greens not a major party

    http://media.ofcom.org.uk/news/2015/major-parties-statement/

    Does that mean they aren't invited to the debates that aren't happening ?
    It means one Green PPB, which means my bet on the Greens outpolling the Lib Dems might just be a loser after all.

    Damn you OFCOM, damn you to hell.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,976
    edited March 2015
    Chestnut/Gin

    "Lab leads in Populus of 2, Ashcroft 4, ICM 5. Yougov 3"


    If anyone was concentrating Labour deserve to be ahead. I thought for the first time in living memory Ed has transformed from an embryo into a semi formed human being. All this coinciding with his opponents looking rather shouty and self satisfied.

    But as I'm always wrong I expect the Tories to be ahead
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,170

    If that turns out to be correct, it's really hard to see how a government of any sort can be formed.
    Other than a repeat of the present coalition!

    Cue hysteria on CiF!
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    Roger said:

    Chestnut/Gin

    "Lab leads in Populus of 2, Ashcroft 4, ICM 5. Yougov 3"


    If anyone was concentrating Labour deserve to be ahead. I thought for the first time in living memory Ed has transformed from an embryo into a semi formed human being. All this coinciding with his opponents looking rather shouty and self satisfied.

    But as I'm always wrong I expect the Tories to be ahead

    You're being harsh on yourself.

    You called the Indyref spot on.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,740

    If that turns out to be correct, it's really hard to see how a government of any sort can be formed.
    Continuing minority Con-LD coalition, or grand Con-Lab coalition. Someone has to govern!
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Crick a right old sourpuss here - miserable old leftie .

    http://order-order.com/2015/03/16/al-murray-gets-cricked/
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,054

    TGOHF said:

    OFCOM confirms the Greens not a major party

    http://media.ofcom.org.uk/news/2015/major-parties-statement/

    Does that mean they aren't invited to the debates that aren't happening ?
    It means one Green PPB, which means my bet on the Greens outpolling the Lib Dems might just be a loser after all.

    Damn you OFCOM, damn you to hell.
    It'll be a loser because of the massive amount of Green support that is 18-24 and the fact they'll be squeezed by the other left parties in yellow-blue and red-blue battles methinks.
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,024

    If that turns out to be correct, it's really hard to see how a government of any sort can be formed.
    Other than a repeat of the present coalition!

    Cue hysteria on CiF!
    Actually, you're right. 327 would just be enough.
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Pulpstar said:

    OFCOM confirms the Greens not a major party

    http://media.ofcom.org.uk/news/2015/major-parties-statement/

    Schoolboy error committed by Conservative voters not answering opinion pollsters with "Green". A point to note for strategists next time.
    The Greens will be entitled to ONE election broadcast and UKIP TWO. Almost certainly the Greens will only get the ONE (unless the broadcasters think the broadcasts will damage the Green's credibility) as anything taking votes away from Labour is a bad thing.

    Note that the broadcasters may vary the coverage of the major parties.
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,024

    If that turns out to be correct, it's really hard to see how a government of any sort can be formed.
    Other than a repeat of the present coalition!

    Cue hysteria on CiF!
    Actually, you're right. 327 would just be enough.
    Of course, it'd be an absolute nightmare for the whips of both parties.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,170

    If that turns out to be correct, it's really hard to see how a government of any sort can be formed.
    Continuing minority Con-LD coalition, or grand Con-Lab coalition. Someone has to govern!
    Isn’t the magic number 325? Con-LD is past that, just, with a fractured and, in Labours case in the circumstances fissiparous, opposition
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,950


    Stodge, when was IDS in the Blair government?

    He and the rest of the Conservative Party might as well have been. It was the decision of the Tories to back Blair and support military action that ensured the motion would pass safely through the Commons on 18 March 2003.

    With a quarter of the Labour Party either opposed or abstaining as well as the entire LD cohort in opposition, had the 166 Conservatives voted against rather than for the war it might have been, to quote Wellington, a "damn close run thing".

    We also know that had the vote been lost, Blair would have resigned and possibly triggered a General Election.

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    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    If that turns out to be correct, it's really hard to see how a government of any sort can be formed.
    Continuing minority Con-LD coalition, or grand Con-Lab coalition. Someone has to govern!
    In Feb. 74, no combination of two parties had a majority.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    Schapps may or may not have screwed up.

    But for the Guardian/BBC axis to ink this onto their election grid in advance and then bring this out of the drawer is tiresome when next up they will be whining about negative campaigning - its a fair enough attack but don't pretend you aren't the Mail for lefties.

    Sarah Champion poppy
    ry top of the "Most read".
    You have to wonder how low MP's can go , certainly lower than rattlesnakes for sure , greedy money grasping fake lowlifes.
    Do MP’s fill in these forms themselves or do they have a secretarial person to do it for them? Just asking.
    I thought most of them had their wives/ girlfriends running their offices. Usually claiming they are highly skilled as well. They must give some instruction , hand over the receipts to be claimed etc, I doubt the office staff rummage in a bin load of receipts to choose what is claimed. It is however usually put down to an administration / flunkey mistake when they are rumbled.
    Quite. In that type of job you need a pretty high level of sense, so either they have crap admin staff, who they picked, or they gave pretty blanket instructions to 'claim on all receipts' without considering there might be situations where it would look bad to do so and asking them to bring to the MP's attention any ones that are not regular.

    Mr. Song, to be fair, trusting that the PM won't spout bullshit when presenting the case for war to Parliament should be a natural state of affairs.

    Outright lies are, I suspect, actually pretty rare in parliament and the rest of politics. Not generally worth the risk when lying by omission, spinning or general obfuscation will do.

    Mr. Song, to be fair, trusting that the PM won't spout bullshit when presenting the case for war to Parliament should be a natural state of affairs.

    'Should' is the operative word - and I can't disagree.
    However, most people who are interested enough to follow current affairs and politics, even posting on here must have known that Blair had already signed up to Bush's wars. He was going to say whatever was necessary to get it past the HoC. If we 'knew' that, surely every Member of Parliament must have known it too. They voted the way they did knowing, or at the very least strongly suspecting, that that was the case.
    I presume most of them were happy with the backup reasons provided when the primary reason used to convince the public fell through. As you say, they must have had doubts, so I presume they factored those in and still decided it was all ok.
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    FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801

    Stodge.. we were discussing people who had lied in the HOC..Lots of people were taken in by Blair and his dodgy dossier..No one would believe that a PM would take the country to war on a deliberate lie..Kelly was just one of many victims of his lying

    Supporting Iraq was for me the nadir of being a Conservative.


    If Hersh is correct at the time of the vote in the HoC the government knew it was the rebels, this was not disclosed.
    http://original.antiwar.com/justin/2014/04/06/who-was-behind-the-syrian-sarin-false-flag-attack/

    Questions about Libya need asking if we are to have answers.
    http://original.antiwar.com/justin/2015/02/01/hillarys-war/

    Then of course the ludicrous claims about the Ukraine.
    http://original.antiwar.com/justin/2015/03/08/f-k-the-eu-revisited/

    The lack of a free press in this country is disturbing.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139
    edited March 2015
    Roger said:


    If anyone was concentrating Labour deserve to be ahead.

    I'd have problems with the word 'deserve' personally, given the government has merely been pretty crappy, and in many ways Labour are promising to continue in the same vein. Oh sure, the details differ in some small areas, but it is not that stark of a choice.

    Edit: Note this isn't a 'all main stream parties are the same' sort of situation as if they are indistinguishable. They are, just not to the degree they pretend.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,054
    Let's get set for #pollercoaster Monday
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139
    FalseFlag said:

    Stodge.. we were discussing people who had lied in the HOC..Lots of people were taken in by Blair and his dodgy dossier..No one would believe that a PM would take the country to war on a deliberate lie..Kelly was just one of many victims of his lying

    The lack of a free press in this country is disturbing.
    No it isn't. Or rather it would be, if we did lack one. Perhaps the problem it is not varied enough.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,054
    I'm going for UKIP down from 18 pts with Populus. Past that no idea.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    The biggest lie of recent years and made in the HOC was Blairs when he said he had seen incontrovertible evidence of WMD...He hadn't...and a lot of people paid for his lie with their lives.

    Then Blair got made Middle East peace ambassador - what a sick joke.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,789
    edited March 2015
    David Coburn apologises (though pedants will say he implying rather than inferring)

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CANn-eKWUAAH_e3.jpg
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,740

    If that turns out to be correct, it's really hard to see how a government of any sort can be formed.
    Continuing minority Con-LD coalition, or grand Con-Lab coalition. Someone has to govern!
    In Feb. 74, no combination of two parties had a majority.
    True and Labour ruled as a minority for a short time. Can you see that happening in May on Yougov's figures?
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    If that turns out to be correct, it's really hard to see how a government of any sort can be formed.
    Other than a repeat of the present coalition!

    Cue hysteria on CiF!
    Or if the Lib Dems decide to abstain on confidence motions Cameron would have a majority with UKIP and DUP support.

    It would be tight, but either way Cameron would remain as PM.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,869

    If that turns out to be correct, it's really hard to see how a government of any sort can be formed.
    Continuing minority Con-LD coalition, or grand Con-Lab coalition. Someone has to govern!
    I think it would be Minority Con with DUP and LD C&S. The "bedroom tax" would need to be changed, and a concession given on electoral reform for locals.

    However, it'd probably hang together until after the EU referendum. Tories would match (and with the DUP outvote) the Lefties: SNP + Labour + Green + SDLP + PC combined.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,740

    If that turns out to be correct, it's really hard to see how a government of any sort can be formed.
    Continuing minority Con-LD coalition, or grand Con-Lab coalition. Someone has to govern!
    Isn’t the magic number 325? Con-LD is past that, just, with a fractured and, in Labours case in the circumstances fissiparous, opposition
    True, Con-LD wouldn't be a minority they'd have a wafer thin majority. Maybe Con's should lay off LDs as their best chance of retaining power ;-).
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,054
    Good to see.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139
    Floater said:

    The biggest lie of recent years and made in the HOC was Blairs when he said he had seen incontrovertible evidence of WMD...He hadn't...and a lot of people paid for his lie with their lives.

    Then Blair got made Middle East peace ambassador - what a sick joke.
    Does he still hold that position does anyone know?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,054
    edited March 2015



    I think it would be Minority Con with DUP and LD C&S. The "bedroom tax" would need to be changed, and a concession given on electoral reform for locals.

    However, it'd probably hang together until after the EU referendum. Tories would match (and with the DUP outvote) the Lefties: SNP + Labour + Green + SDLP + PC combined.

    Con, DUP, LD vs SNP, Lab, Green, SDLP, PC are the obvious two blocs. DUP and Lib Dems could switch to Labour but as they'll both be smaller than the SNP you don't need to begin to consider them in those blocs for PM forming purposes.
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    Pulpstar said:
    As one of my Scottish Friends said to me over the weekend.

    "Scotland doesn't do racism, it hasn't got the time, as we're too busy engaged in Sectarianism"
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    New Statesman:

    Labour must do a deal with the SNP
    A more social democratic Britain can be achieved, and Scottish Labour's recovery set in train, if a deal is done between Labour and the SNP.


    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/03/labour-must-do-deal-snp

    To borrow a line off Kevin Keegan

    "I would love it if they did that, love it"

    Labour would get smashed at the subsequent election.

    Even Ed can't be unaware of that fact.

    Or is it all about getting his 5 years in power and nothing about the long term viability of our country or his party?
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,740

    If that turns out to be correct, it's really hard to see how a government of any sort can be formed.
    Continuing minority Con-LD coalition, or grand Con-Lab coalition. Someone has to govern!
    I think it would be Minority Con with DUP and LD C&S. The "bedroom tax" would need to be changed, and a concession given on electoral reform for locals.

    However, it'd probably hang together until after the EU referendum. Tories would match (and with the DUP outvote) the Lefties: SNP + Labour + Green + SDLP + PC combined.
    That would make sense from the Tories' point of view. However, how would the public view C&S from the LDs - isn't that practically as bad as a coalition, but without any of your policies being implemented? Isn't it still 'propping up the Tories'?
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,170
    edited March 2015

    If that turns out to be correct, it's really hard to see how a government of any sort can be formed.
    Continuing minority Con-LD coalition, or grand Con-Lab coalition. Someone has to govern!
    Isn’t the magic number 325? Con-LD is past that, just, with a fractured and, in Labours case in the circumstances fissiparous, opposition
    True, Con-LD wouldn't be a minority they'd have a wafer thin majority. Maybe Con's should lay off LDs as their best chance of retaining power ;-).
    That is probably the case; whether the Tories will do of course is doubtful to say the least. Whether they should pull their punches in places such as Burnley is another matter.
This discussion has been closed.