There are quite alot of us bettors that want Labour dead, buried and chucked in an iron casket box in the Clyde never to be seen or heard of again up in Scotland.
But where would the betting interest in Scottish elections be in in the future if they don't make some kind of revival after May?
Scottish Tory surges?
Oh, I see what you mean.
According to election forecast Tories are taking a clean sweep of the borders !
3 tricky seats to call, past Mundell holding I'm really not sure on these. And even Mundell is not a cert.
A Tory clean sweep of the borders makes the partition of Scotland "inevitable".
There are quite alot of us bettors that want Labour dead, buried and chucked in an iron casket box in the Clyde never to be seen or heard of again up in Scotland.
But where would the betting interest in Scottish elections be in in the future if they don't make some kind of revival after May?
Scottish Tory surges?
Oh, I see what you mean.
According to election forecast Tories are taking a clean sweep of the borders !
3 tricky seats to call, past Mundell holding I'm really not sure on these. And even Mundell is not a cert.
Not impossible, but I'd see that as the ceiling until the whole set up changes, i.e. independent Scottish Tory & Labour parties. Ruth Davidson has the makings but she's only edging them past their 2010 figures. Imagine where they'd be if they'd chosen a duffer.
First, Grant Shapps a throwback to the Tory 1980's loadsamoney Harry Enfield if ever there was one. Could the Tories not have found a woman or an safe pair of hands for this role, instead of someone as grating as Shapps with his ridiculous name?
Hmm, you do know he's Jewish? Would you refer to his "ridiculous name" if he was called Singh or Hussein?
I think the most troubling fact about Shapps with which lefties like me have to contend is that he's supposedly a cousin of the late, great Joe Strummer.
Mick Jones, isn't it?
I don't know - just going on rumour and hearsay. Jones would still be bad, but not quite as gut-wrenchingly terrible as Strummer.
I am loving the way that any negative reporting of the Tories has now become an assault on them by the BBC and the Guardian.
You keep pretending that neither the BBC or the Guardian aren't partisan organisations. It just makes you look stupid.
The Guardian is certainly partisan. And preachy. And generally not that good. I never buy it. I think that PB posters and others who routinely claim the BBC is pro-Labour and anti-Tory are utterly ridiculous.
I seem to recall people saying the BBC has a left wing bias and worldview -it really is hard to argue with that - especially when their own staff admit it.
Be nice to the Kippers today, Coburn's apologised for his vile smear, after some of the Kippers on here defended him and praised him.
Did they?
Are you on UKIP in Basildon South btw?
Yes they did and yes I am.
Who defended and praised him?
And what made you back UKIP in this seat?
I'll let you guess who wrote this
"I notice that muslims seem to be well entrenched in Scotland. I don't trust any of them, and thats not racism for those ignorant to think so, but on the muslim majority in the UK response to terrorism in the world perpetrated by Jihadists and Islamists. Good luck to Coburn; UKIP tells it like it is. This is the modern world, for those with eyes to see. Unhappily many don't wish to see whats staring them in the face"
Mike told me about Ian Luder a few weeks ago.
So one kipper rather than "some of the kippers"
Oh so you are on at 4/1 or so not any bigger price than that?
No there were other Kippers defending him and trying to pass it off as a joke.
Looking back at it, I backed UKIP in this seat last October, when there were rumours Stephen Metcalfe was about to defect/a UKIP poll in the field in the seat, like they did with Reckless and Carswell.
@JBeattieMirror: Ed Miliband: "Labour will not go into coalition government with the SNP." Finally ruled out
@JBeattieMirror: More Ed Miliband: "There will be no SNP ministers in any government I lead."
This may attract some people back north of the border, thinking the SNP will be powerless, or alternatively it may stiffen resolve, "The English won't compromise, we need a mandate to leave"
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said she would be willing to "strike deals with a minority Labour UK Government" and added she "cannot see for the life of me" why Mr Miliband would want to rule out a coalition with the SNP.
"I cannot see for the life of me why Labour wouldn't want to contemplate the possibility of working with the SNP to keep the Tories out of office."
Those two paragraphs put together don't make any sense whatsoever and they are within a few inches of each other.
All this Grant Shapps stuff pales into insignificance to the fact that the Met are going to be probed over potential cover ups over child sex offences that have been going on for 35 years.
All this Grant Shapps stuff pales into insignificance to the fact that the Met office are going to be probed over potential cover ups over child sex offences that have been going on for 35 years.
Labour ruling out a COALITION changes nothing. If Labour + SNP gives a majority, Milliband will enter Downing Street.
The Daily Record and others will spin it for all it is worth, but the vast majority of those intending to vote SNP will not be fooled. It may even damage SLAB even further.
All this Grant Shapps stuff pales into insignificance to the fact that the Met office are going to be probed over potential cover ups over child sex offences that have been going on for 35 years.
I am loving the way that any negative reporting of the Tories has now become an assault on them by the BBC and the Guardian.
You keep pretending that neither the BBC or the Guardian aren't partisan organisations. It just makes you look stupid.
The Guardian is certainly partisan. And preachy. And generally not that good. I never buy it. I think that PB posters and others who routinely claim the BBC is pro-Labour and anti-Tory are utterly ridiculous.
I seem to recall people saying the BBC has a left wing bias and worldview -it really is hard to argue with that - especially when their own staff admit it.
I think it skews left, though I think they make the attempt (usually but not always successfully) to keep the presentation impartial. IIRC the website news is meant to manage that better than the actual broadcast stuff, but I generally get all my info online so couldn't say.
But no, a lot of people will insist they are the worst thing since an unsliced loaf, and just goes a bit more extreme than the evidence warrants I feel, which is a shame.
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said she would be willing to "strike deals with a minority Labour UK Government" and added she "cannot see for the life of me" why Mr Miliband would want to rule out a coalition with the SNP.
"I cannot see for the life of me why Labour wouldn't want to contemplate the possibility of working with the SNP to keep the Tories out of office."
Those two paragraphs put together don't make any sense whatsoever and they are within a few inches of each other.
Sky News putting words into Nicola's mouth here.
And, unsurprisingly, the Telegraph.
SNP: 'We have right to dictate policy for all Britain'
Labour ruling out a COALITION changes nothing. If Labour + SNP gives a majority, Milliband will enter Downing Street.
Quite. An arrangement will be made to the satisfaction of both parties if necessary I am sure. Ed M would not have ruled out a formal coalition if it would actually compromise his ability to strike a deal of some kind to keep out the Tories, I am sure. But it removes the most direct attack line. Obviously there is still the attack line Pulpstar quotes from Toby Young, but sticking to 'No Coalition, period', still plays better than 'I don't want a Coalition, period'.
@JBeattieMirror: Ed Miliband: "Labour will not go into coalition government with the SNP." Finally ruled out
@JBeattieMirror: More Ed Miliband: "There will be no SNP ministers in any government I lead."
This may attract some people back north of the border, thinking the SNP will be powerless, or alternatively it may stiffen resolve, "The English won't compromise, we need a mandate to leave"
The problem here is that Miliband has been forced into this by Cameron's pressure last week and English Labour MPs panicking. It simply reinforces the view that he is weak, weak, weak.
The term 'denier' has clear connotations to Holocaust denial. It's an ugly term.
It is also not the language of Science, but of faith.
Few serious scientists use the term - "sceptic" is far more appropriate.
OK, you politically correct folk. I for one will use sceptic rather than denier in future ;-) (although 'denier' is an accurate description of someone who is denying something)
My issue with the Tories is the unfunded, unsupported pledge to continue to feed more of my money to Scotland. They had not the slightest right to make any such pledge, given that the rest of the UK wasn't getting to vote on the matter. If Cameron wanted to tell Scotland they'll get more English money if they vote Yes then the only honest thing to do thereafter was give England a referendum on whether to endorse such an offer.
The sooner the 86% leftist voters of Scotland are cut loose and made to fund socialism out of their own pockets, the better. Tough love, really.
Like the GDR they'll take 50 years of misery to come to their senses, but unlike the GDR there'll be no BRD waiting to let them back in.
I entirely agree. We should have full English Votes for English Laws and the Barnett formula should be abolished. Let the Scottish Parliament have the same amount of taxes per capita to spend on devolved issues as the English
It was my understanding that the modern Tory party, and particularly Cameron, are all about telling people what to do when it comes to small things, nannying little measures all over the place. If that's not the case, the image problem extends to more areas than I realised.
All governments are guilty of this to one extent or another, its a natural by-product of democracy.Government's get judged on what they do, so while I'd ideally like a government that simply rolled back nonsense previous government's have done, they'd be pillored for not doing anything themselves.
I'd rather have a government that is economically competent and tinkering with small things, than being either economically incompetent or banning wholesale big things.
What's worse: saying what you can or can't do with your money, saying what you can or can't do personally, not saying you can't do anything but that you have to remove the colour red off a box of Marlboro cigarettes?
@mattholehouse: Nicola Sturgeon says Ed Miliband has not ruled out working with SNP, merely ruled out a formal Coalition she didn't want. She is correct.
My issue with the Tories is the unfunded, unsupported pledge to continue to feed more of my money to Scotland. They had not the slightest right to make any such pledge, given that the rest of the UK wasn't getting to vote on the matter. If Cameron wanted to tell Scotland they'll get more English money if they vote Yes then the only honest thing to do thereafter was give England a referendum on whether to endorse such an offer.
The sooner the 86% leftist voters of Scotland are cut loose and made to fund socialism out of their own pockets, the better. Tough love, really.
Like the GDR they'll take 50 years of misery to come to their senses, but unlike the GDR there'll be no BRD waiting to let them back in.
I entirely agree. We should have full English Votes for English Laws and the Barnett formula should be abolished. Let the Scottish Parliament have the same amount of taxes per capita to spend on devolved issues as the English
It was my understanding that the modern Tory party, and particularly Cameron, are all about telling people what to do when it comes to small things, nannying little measures all over the place. If that's not the case, the image problem extends to more areas than I realised.
All governments are guilty of this to one extent or another, its a natural by-product of democracy.?
Yes, but my feeling is the Tories are particularly guilty of this at the moment, that it is something they do enthusiastically, not as part of the rough and tumble of politics.
The sooner the 86% leftist voters of Scotland are cut loose and made to fund socialism out of their own pockets, the better. Tough love, really.
Like the GDR they'll take 50 years of misery to come to their senses, but unlike the GDR there'll be no BRD waiting to let them back in.
I entirely agree. We should have full English Votes for English Laws and the Barnett formula should be abolished. Let the Scottish Parliament have the same amount of taxes per capita to spend on devolved issues as the English
It was my understanding that the modern Tory party, and particularly Cameron, are all about telling people what to do when it comes to small things, nannying little measures all over the place. If that's not the case, the image problem extends to more areas than I realised.
I'd rather have a government that is economically competent and tinkering with small things, than being either economically incompetent or banning wholesale big things.
Wouldn't we all, but neither is really on the table. Not-economically-disastrous is about the most we can hope for.
All this Grant Shapps stuff pales into insignificance to the fact that the Met office are going to be probed over potential cover ups over child sex offences that have been going on for 35 years.
The Met Office?!
Never have trusted those weathermen.
LOL....
Glad you don't mind a mild tease, Francis.
Seriously though, I take this as a healthy sign. Time was when they would brush this kind of thing aside. Now they are at least taking matters a bit more seriously.
I have some anecdotal evidence on this from personal experience. Will relate it idc as I think it will interest you, but it's a little complicated and I am pressed for time just now.
@reporterboy: This no deal with SNP is disingenious. There needn't be SNP ministers, or coalition, to still do a deal with SNP for No. 10 and they know it
"Ed Miliband suffered a new blow today as an exclusive poll revealed that he is the most disliked of all the main party leaders.
Research by Ipsos MORI found Mr Miliband arouses more antipathy than any other leader, including Nick Clegg, with some 62 per cent of the public saying they do not like him. His lack of popularity is in striking contrast with the public’s affection for the party he leads, because while only 30 per cent say they like him, 52 per cent like Labour — a huge 22-point gap.
The options for next government increasingly seem to be shrinking to Lab minority, Lab/LD, Con/LD, Con minority. Yet you can make arbs with those options from a variety of bookies. You can get a combined evens or better from the first three - which are surely more than 50% likely?
"Ed has been bullied into this by Cameron. Not really leadership material is he?"
Silly comment. He was 'bullied into it' by market researchers telling him it will lose him more votes than it'll gain him. Why do you think Cameron moved his top minister and friend Michael Gove?...........
What is interesting, the Telegraph sting on Lib Dem's, BBC didn't run at all. It was fairly small beans, and Telegraph spin that he had anything to do with Alexander was poor, but the fact remains they had a guy in charge of funding raising advising people to make donations in a dodgy way. If the Tories had done that, BBC 100% would have run big with that, as they are with Shapps.
The BBC ran with the Lib Dem donation story. Lord Ashdown was put up to to defend the Lib Dem's integrity on radio 4. The Lib Dems ran a quick damage-limitation exercise: announced an internal enquiry, pseudo-dropped the candidate implicated, etc, so the story just petered out as there was nothing new to say.
What are the chances of all 4 polls coming out today showing a tory lead
If I was a layer - I be offering 3/1 To be a player - I would want 5/1
Zero? Wasn't Populus a draw?
Yes down to the last 0.00%.
33.52% each.
Right anyone wanting to bet that the tories will be up in all 4 polls then? Give you 50:1. Anyone? Anyone at all?
If they are +ve in the ICM then that will be news..
Well it will be a start. Whilst I don't go nearly as far as OGH I am not sure that Sunil's 0.01% is going to cut it! (edited out a gross exaggeration).
What are the chances of all 4 polls coming out today showing a tory lead
If I was a layer - I be offering 3/1 To be a player - I would want 5/1
Zero? Wasn't Populus a draw?
Yes down to the last 0.00%.
33.52% each.
Right anyone wanting to bet that the tories will be up in all 4 polls then? Give you 50:1. Anyone? Anyone at all?
If they are +ve in the ICM then that will be news..
Well it will be a start. Whilst I don't go nearly as far as OGH I am not sure that Sunil's 0.01% is going to cut it! (edited out a gross exaggeration).
There are quite alot of us bettors that want Labour dead, buried and chucked in an iron casket box in the Clyde never to be seen or heard of again up in Scotland.
But where would the betting interest in Scottish elections be in in the future if they don't make some kind of revival after May?
Scottish Tory surges?
Oh, I see what you mean.
According to election forecast Tories are taking a clean sweep of the borders !
3 tricky seats to call, past Mundell holding I'm really not sure on these. And even Mundell is not a cert.
My view is Mundell out, John Lamont in and I have bet accordingly.
There are quite alot of us bettors that want Labour dead, buried and chucked in an iron casket box in the Clyde never to be seen or heard of again up in Scotland.
But where would the betting interest in Scottish elections be in in the future if they don't make some kind of revival after May?
Scottish Tory surges?
Oh, I see what you mean.
According to election forecast Tories are taking a clean sweep of the borders !
3 tricky seats to call, past Mundell holding I'm really not sure on these. And even Mundell is not a cert.
My view is Mundell out, John Lamont in and I have bet accordingly.
If the SNP can hose up in DCT then the rest of my Scottish book should be in good shape. So I won't be too disappointed with that.
@reporterboy: This no deal with SNP is disingenious. There needn't be SNP ministers, or coalition, to still do a deal with SNP for No. 10 and they know it
@JBeattieMirror: Ed Miliband: "Labour will not go into coalition government with the SNP." Finally ruled out
@JBeattieMirror: More Ed Miliband: "There will be no SNP ministers in any government I lead."
This may attract some people back north of the border, thinking the SNP will be powerless, or alternatively it may stiffen resolve, "The English won't compromise, we need a mandate to leave"
I think it's sort of irrelevant. What the IndyRef appears to have done is to make Scottish Independence the most important issue for most of the 45% of people who voted for it. That being the case there is nothing that Labour can say that will win those voters back. Ruling out a deal with the SNP becomes purely about how it plays with English voters.
This is why UKIP are keen on an EU referendum. As the only significant sized party advocating withdrawal from the EU they stand to gain massively if the electorate becomes polarised on the question of whether to stay or leave, even though the polls currently point to a heavy defeat in such a referendum.
@JBeattieMirror: Ed Miliband: "Labour will not go into coalition government with the SNP." Finally ruled out
@JBeattieMirror: More Ed Miliband: "There will be no SNP ministers in any government I lead."
This may attract some people back north of the border, thinking the SNP will be powerless, or alternatively it may stiffen resolve, "The English won't compromise, we need a mandate to leave"
I think it's sort of irrelevant. What the IndyRef appears to have done is to make Scottish Independence the most important issue for most of the 45% of people who voted for it. That being the case there is nothing that Labour can say that will win those voters back. Ruling out a deal with the SNP becomes purely about how it plays with English voters.
This is why UKIP are keen on an EU referendum. As the only significant sized party advocating withdrawal from the EU they stand to gain massively if the electorate becomes polarised on the question of whether to stay or leave, even though the polls currently point to a heavy defeat in such a referendum.
Note how the SNP polled just under 20% in Scotland in the 2010 GE, when support for Independence was at roughly one-third of the population - lots of voters in favour of Independence voted for Unionist parties. No more.
Not sure when this became-and who says it is-perfectly acceptable.
I suspect few people (if you are correct) would be other than deceived into believing that Sturgeon is being quoted, but I suppose that is precisely the Telegraph's dishonest purpose.
Comments
Anti-capitalist protesters occupy wrong building
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/03/anti-capitalist-protesters-occupy-wrong-building/
But neither are likely.
Finally ruled out
@JBeattieMirror: More Ed Miliband: "There will be no SNP ministers in any government I lead."
Miliband Rules Out SNP Ministers Coalition Deal
The Labour leader may have decided against Scottish [I THINK THEY MEANT SNP] ministers in his cabinet but the parties could still do a deal.
http://news.sky.com/story/1446026/miliband-rules-out-snp-ministers-coalition-deal
My betting position doesn't reflect this so I hope if it is to be three it is the other way round.
Well, not that surprised actually, but at least we now have proof you wriggle, squirm and spin rather than give an opponent any credit
"I cannot see for the life of me why Labour wouldn't want to contemplate the possibility of working with the SNP to keep the Tories out of office."
Those two paragraphs put together don't make any sense whatsoever and they are within a few inches of each other.
Sky News putting words into Nicola's mouth here.
Never have trusted those weathermen.
Those words could come back to haunt him
The Daily Record and others will spin it for all it is worth, but the vast majority of those intending to vote SNP will not be fooled. It may even damage SLAB even further.
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/568486258932092928
But no, a lot of people will insist they are the worst thing since an unsliced loaf, and just goes a bit more extreme than the evidence warrants I feel, which is a shame.
SNP: 'We have right to dictate policy for all Britain'
But I think that a majority of those that remain in SLAB will be happy. I think they hate the SNP more than the Tories these days.
If @Ed_Miliband thinks ruling out a *coalition* with the SNP is going to put this question to bed, he’s barking. What about a *deal*?
RUBBISH!
(Now he knows what it is like to manage a big club in Britain)
http://www.theguardian.com/football/2015/mar/16/sunderland-sack-gus-poyet-dick-advocaat?CMP=share_btn_tw
If I was a layer - I be offering 3/1
To be a player - I would want 5/1
(although 'denier' is an accurate description of someone who is denying something)
Wasn't Populus a draw?
I'd rather have a government that is economically competent and tinkering with small things, than being either economically incompetent or banning wholesale big things.
What's worse: saying what you can or can't do with your money, saying what you can or can't do personally, not saying you can't do anything but that you have to remove the colour red off a box of Marlboro cigarettes?
33.52% each.
http://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/resources/images/2898241/
I'll go back to bed.
Seriously though, I take this as a healthy sign. Time was when they would brush this kind of thing aside. Now they are at least taking matters a bit more seriously.
I have some anecdotal evidence on this from personal experience. Will relate it idc as I think it will interest you, but it's a little complicated and I am pressed for time just now.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/sixtytwo-percent-of-voters-dislike-ed-miliband-poll-shows-10110770.html
"Ed Miliband suffered a new blow today as an exclusive poll revealed that he is the most disliked of all the main party leaders.
Research by Ipsos MORI found Mr Miliband arouses more antipathy than any other leader, including Nick Clegg, with some 62 per cent of the public saying they do not like him. His lack of popularity is in striking contrast with the public’s affection for the party he leads, because while only 30 per cent say they like him, 52 per cent like Labour — a huge 22-point gap.
"
Check T&Cs of bets, and as ever DYOR.
"Ed has been bullied into this by Cameron. Not really leadership material is he?"
Silly comment. He was 'bullied into it' by market researchers telling him it will lose him more votes than it'll gain him. Why do you think Cameron moved his top minister and friend Michael Gove?...........
For exactly the same reason
@hugorifkind: Ed Miliband refusing to go into coalition with the SNP is a bit like that time I refused to leave my wife for Angelina Jolie.
@Mr_Eugenides: Once again, then, Ed Miliband is beclowned.
'Why he was ever made it in the first place is a mystery. All he seems to have done is unite all the various parties into loathing him."
He has not improved anyone's living standards or the prospects of peace a jot
Final weekly ELBOW tallies:
4,348 Con =33.17%
4,347 Lab =33.16%
1,944 UKIP = 14.83%
969 LD = 7.39%
744 Green = 5.68%
Total weighted sample from 11 polls =13,108
SNP: 'We have right to dictate policy for all Britain'
I don't believe that Sturgeon literally said that so why is it in quotes as the Telegraph headline?
This is why UKIP are keen on an EU referendum. As the only significant sized party advocating withdrawal from the EU they stand to gain massively if the electorate becomes polarised on the question of whether to stay or leave, even though the polls currently point to a heavy defeat in such a referendum.
>SNP: 'We have right to dictate policy for all Britain'
>I don't believe that Sturgeon literally said that so why is it in quotes as the Telegraph headline?
Those are single quotes not speechmarks, which are used to refer to the concept or gist behind what she said not the literal words.
Perfectly acceptable.
(The journalistic practice not Sturgeon's proposal !)
"Perfectly acceptable."
Not sure when this became-and who says it is-perfectly acceptable.
I suspect few people (if you are correct) would be other than deceived into believing that Sturgeon is being quoted, but I suppose that is precisely the Telegraph's dishonest purpose.
ISM that it's a spot on summary of the SNP thought.