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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What will be Ed Miliband’s First Question in this week’s PMQs?
Including today’s PMQs, there are four PMQs left before the general election, the one in a fortnight’s time will be drowned out by the budget that follows on from that, and the final one will be during the defacto election campaign.
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Tailor made that is for mug punters in that one cannot be sure that ANY of the issues listed will be raised by Miliband in his first question at PMQs and in such circumstances, the bookie would simply pocket the entire pool ...... nice work if you can get it and little wonder that Betfair decided to expand its operations to include fixed odds betting, thereby competing head on with the likes of Shadsy and his masters.
Such Mug Lists should always be avoided in my opinion unless and until they include a final category described as "None of the above".
If absolutely forced to choose a category, I would agree with TSE that Immigration is probably the best bet, closely followed imho by Housing (or rather the lack/expense thereof). Most of the other picks are total non-starters.
I'm having short break in France at moment.
We PBers are set to benefit also from the GE prize competion(s) which are being sponsored by Sporting.
I think Miliband will try to breathe fresh life into his 'Tuition Fees cut for rich graduates funded by pensioner middle income earners, though that too is not without its front bench splits challenges.
On topic - any chance of an accumulator for a combo-question?
Seeking a cure for your insomnia are you Rob?
Phone Hacking 10/1 - The likelihood of Ed, highlighting the Mirror Group hacking scandal and by association the editor of the day, are pretty remote imho.
Tuition Fees, as Ed's pet project seems likely, and possibly Russia if Ed is wearing his statesman's hat and not the usual school cap.
It's UK oil.
Cost of living/living wage @12/1 – Ed might want to avoid this topic unless it is to congratulate the Coalition.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-31711854
Actually there is - see Continental Shelf Jurisdiction Order 1968 or read my old Professsor Alec Kemp's official history of North Sea Oil or indeed read anything at all before you post.
There already is a legally based Scottish sector of the North Sea and , when Scotland becomes independent, there will be the legislative base to run the basin properly that is more like Norway than Westminster.
How is all that fracking going again in the North West or was it the North East of England or is it just far enough away from Putney as not to impact on house prices?
4444 minutes
Actually it tells you to use 5 or ten sub sample averages on which the SNP are a country mile ahead of the rest.
Also said he want an Australian points system that would limit immigrants to only those with required skill sets. Why hasn't that been imposed before (on non-EU) - LD objections and threats?
But I don't like playing markets like this, so I'm not betting.
Buy, without wishing to spoil the party, it could be a blip, and we have TNS to come.
Nowhere.
Greens on a steady ~ 6% or thereabouts.
I suppose you could tighten it up more by saying the government has a list of jobs that aren't needed and if a company says they need a particular person from overseas they must be lying and won't even look at the application, but this would obviously be thoroughly mad since there's no way the government's list could cover all possible situations, and I'd be surprised if it's what Australia do in practice.
Last three days LAB/LD split has been: 30/28; 23/29; 34/21. So is Labour losing 2010 LDs support or not?
The Scottish subsample is more stable:SNP/SLAB: 38/28; 44/25[ 40/27
LibDems 5% - hahahahahaha....The physical body of their remaining MPs after the GE will have outlived their party's purpose and redundant philiosophy. Zombies. A hard to remove stain in the political toilet bowl.
Whatever Ed goes with at PMQs Dave will have some solid ammo to shoot back with. Tuition fees paid for with pension raids? Universally ripped apart in the press. And whatever he goes with we're going to hear from Dave about the Mirror hacks, Rotherham, no economic policy, 'bill somebody' type quips.
"Foreign workers classified as “highly skilled” under the new points system would be given 5-year visas, after which they would be allowed to apply for permanent leave to remain, according to UKIP.
During the 5-year period, they would be expected to have their own health insurance, and would be barred from claiming any U.K. benefits."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-04/ukip-plans-points-system-benefits-ban-for-immigrants
That's the afternoon thread sorted.
"Have Farage and UKIP become part of the Liberal LabLibCan Metropolitan Elite with these new policies?"
@paulwaugh: Wonder what @Aiannucci + @mrchrisaddison make of new UKIP policy. TTOI Rise of The Nutters had an 'independent expert board' on immigration.
With 1701 respondents.
I could see that giving a veto-gasm type polling boost. With the election approaching they could have the promised legislation as part of their election platform rather than folding the way they did with the veto.
"...the government plans to make it a criminal offence to wilfully neglect those at risk of, and victims of, child sexual abuse.
Social workers, education practitioners and local councillors would be covered by the sanction, which would be introduced as an extension of the crime of wilful neglect of patients by care workers in this year’s Criminal Justice and Courts Act.
Yet these proposals are only going out to consultation. There will be further reports to come and committee recommendations sought ahead of any legislation being brought before parliament for a vote."
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2015/03/03/downing-street-holds-a-sex-abuse-summit-too-little-too-late-for-those-who-have-suffered-already/
The problem seems to be a shortage of fag packets for him to write it on.
Bit like FGM, then!!!!
Farage's goal to return immigration figures to .'normal ' is a rather inspired moment in history of fantasy politics
How does that work out as immigrants per square kilometre of land (clue, Australia is 7 MILLION square metres of land, the UK is less than quarter of one million, so about a 30th of the size)
I'd go for the NHS, with Tax Avoidance second choice.
Immigration is easier to respond to (Labour opened the floodgates, and they don't want a drastic reduction either).
His false bonhomie wears thin over time.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics released its latest statistic report on migration, which revealed that the number of migrants has increased by 28% in the past decade, with 508,662 people moving to Australia and 264,291 leaving.
British people continue to make up the largest portion of Australia’s overseas-born population, followed by New Zealanders, Chinese, Indians and Vietnamese.
However, the number of British immigrants is decreasing overall and the countries with the fastest growing number of immigrants to Australia, apart from Nepal which had a very small number to begin with, are India at 12% more per year-on-year average, Pakistan (11.4%), Bangladesh (10.9%) and Sudan (9.2%).
The number of people who live in Australia but were born in Serbia had the biggest decrease, with a 3.1% drop year on year.#
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/18/annual-migration-figures-show-twice-as-many-arrivals-as-departures
I seem to recall a mini-scandal that BBC management and senior Civil Servants prefer Bupa to the NHS.
Cardiff North AM Julie Morgan had proposed a change to the Violence against Women, Domestic Abuse and Sexual Violence Bill to remove the defence of "reasonable punishment".
It would have made it illegal in Wales for parents to hit their children but the amendment from Labour's Ms Morgan was lost by 36 votes to 16.
The Welsh Labour government opposed the measure.
It had rejected calls for a free vote on the issue.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-31697730
@montie: Interesting: @SajidJavid now in clear third place in future contest to succeed David Cameron http://t.co/TEBtOJFbFz http://t.co/fc5GR3CIse
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31722779
Australia is vast, but these migrants are not living in the outback. Australia is one of the most urbanised countries in the world and migration is putting the same strain on their pre existing population as on ours.
So far as I can see no developed economy has managed to get immigration down to the level that Farage or Cameron propose apart from Japan.
Is the plan to ban foreign spouses of British nationals? Deport all asylum seekers on arrival irrespective of their history? Deport all students as soon as their course finishes? Refuse permission for the 10 million UK nationals living outside the country from returning. These are the sorts of policies required to get net migration down to the tens of thousands.
Liam Bloody Fox in 4th place!
And Owen Paterson on 5%!
To ensure it isn't discriminatory, why not introduce a similar qualification period for Brits? It would have a nugatory effect, as most of us would qualify by the age of 5, but should mean that it could be applied to EU citizens as we would be treating them the same as UK citizens.
The asylum seekers is a red herring, they are not counted in immigration numbers, and in any case over half the asylum seekers to the UK have been rejected and have had their appeals rejected, and yet ARE STILL IN THE COUNTRY, over half the Somalis in the country for example, are failed asylum seekers that have yet to be deported. Someone in immigration needs a firm kick up the arse there.
Mostly what I want is a PM that doesn't lie about things he cant deliver. The no ifs, no buts pledge wouldn't have been possible even with a Conservative majority government, so it was a lie.
Personally, I was hoping Jon Crudas would be allowed to just get on with it - it would have been an interesting and highly thought provoking document.
The ICM survery, commissioned by BBC Wales, found 34 per cent rated the Tory leader, over just 23 per cent for his Labour rival.
The Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg came in at 5 per cent, three points behind the UKIP leader Nigel Farage on 8 per cent.
Twenty-one per cent answered 'none of them'
http://www.southwales-eveningpost.co.uk/Welsh-voters-prefer-Cameron-Miliband-according/story-26116247-detail/story.html