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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf on Jihadi John and the afternoon round-up

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  • Former chairman of Labour's NEC speaks at UKIP's conference

    Sorry, what was her name? :)
  • Former chairman of Labour's NEC speaks at UKIP's conference

    Sorry, what was her name? :)
    Harriet Yeo
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Yeah, just checked

    100 pounds invested in the ftse all share at the start of 2008 would be worth 138.34 now assuming no further contributions (so missing out on getting extra of the spectacular gains in 2009).

    Given the massive bull market in bonds your traditional 50/50 pension fund would be doing rather well.
  • Mr. G (the other one), it's not my fault you chaps have the same surname.

    Mr Dancer, you can always use the "quote" option in your replies!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,568
    Populus's Sentio model (which tries to allow for coalition possibilities) now puts Labour on a 73% probability of forming the next government, though only a 2% chance of an overall majority:

    http://populusltd.cmail2.com/t/ViewEmail/r/837DF3CF7C1FF5A72540EF23F30FEDED/2310BFDBA32787670B3A73003FEB3522

    Tick tock!
  • Its still not clear whether she has joined UKIP or not but she's giving a good account of herself on stage. I hope she joins up!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,636
    Alistair said:

    Yeah, just checked

    100 pounds invested in the ftse all share at the start of 2008 would be worth 138.34 now assuming no further contributions (so missing out on getting extra of the spectacular gains in 2009).

    Given the massive bull market in bonds your traditional 50/50 pension fund would be doing rather well.

    But they pay the bulk of pensions out of income: i.e. out of dividends and bond coupons.

    And have you seen where bond yields are?

  • Former chairman of Labour's NEC speaks at UKIP's conference

    Sorry, what was her name? :)
    Harriet Yeo
    Ah, yes - very, very senior Labour figure wasn't she?
  • Dr. Prasannan, bah. Bah, I tell you!
  • weejonnie said:

    TGOHF said:

    @DPJHodges: Comres poll for ITV News. 44% of people believe Ukip is a racist party.

    Great news for UKIP then - a majority of people DONT think they are racist.

    Rather like the BBC saying - Great news 73% of muslims don't approve of killing journalists for publishing cartoons of their 'prophet'.
    Depends how many were don't knows surely?
  • Former chairman of Labour's NEC speaks at UKIP's conference

    Sorry, what was her name? :)
    Harriet Yeo
    Ah, yes - very, very senior Labour figure wasn't she?
    Well as high as you can get in the Labour Party and still be a volunteer.
  • Ed Miliband has been in Leeds today announcing Labour’s plans to woo young voters with a cut in tuition fees.

    Tab man Harry Shukman was riding with the Labour leader, and asked Miliband’s Executive Director of Communications Bob Roberts to take a pic of the pair.

    This is the photo taken by the man responsible for making Ed Miliband look good.

    http://leeds.tab.co.uk/2015/02/27/asked-labours-head-communications-take-picture-us-ed-miliband/

    Bad Al would never have allowed this kind of thing.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    Yeah, just checked

    100 pounds invested in the ftse all share at the start of 2008 would be worth 138.34 now assuming no further contributions (so missing out on getting extra of the spectacular gains in 2009).

    Given the massive bull market in bonds your traditional 50/50 pension fund would be doing rather well.

    But they pay the bulk of pensions out of income: i.e. out of dividends and bond coupons.

    And have you seen where bond yields are?

    I was thinking of comparing to buying gold.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    edited February 2015
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    rcs1000 said:

    Dair said:

    Alistair said:

    Dair said:



    Spend it all, retire poor and fleece the taxpayer seems to be the way forward.

    A mix of gold bars and property is by far the best retirement planning in the UK today.
    Gold! I'd rather have something paying a dividend or coupon thanks.
    As a long term investment, Gold is quite attractive. There might be better choices of commodity but VAT means Gold is the only choice for UK citizens. Hold the money in a savings account, buy 100g at a time when the price looks good.
    Which other commodities do you get charged VAT on?
    You get charged VAT on everything but there is an exemption for gold.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,636
    Dair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Dair said:

    Alistair said:

    Dair said:



    Spend it all, retire poor and fleece the taxpayer seems to be the way forward.

    A mix of gold bars and property is by far the best retirement planning in the UK today.
    Gold! I'd rather have something paying a dividend or coupon thanks.
    As a long term investment, Gold is quite attractive. There might be better choices of commodity but VAT means Gold is the only choice for UK citizens. Hold the money in a savings account, buy 100g at a time when the price looks good.
    Which other commodities do you get charged VAT on?
    You get charged VAT on everything but there is an exemption for gold.
    So, if I buy June 2018 Soya Bean futures, I pay VAT?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,636
    Alistair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    Yeah, just checked

    100 pounds invested in the ftse all share at the start of 2008 would be worth 138.34 now assuming no further contributions (so missing out on getting extra of the spectacular gains in 2009).

    Given the massive bull market in bonds your traditional 50/50 pension fund would be doing rather well.

    But they pay the bulk of pensions out of income: i.e. out of dividends and bond coupons.

    And have you seen where bond yields are?

    I was thinking of comparing to buying gold.
    Gold doesn't pay a dividend... one of those things to remember :-)
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    rcs1000 said:


    You do know that companies fund final pension schemes by buying shares, and bonds?

    All a "final salary scheme" does is to move the risk onto the employer. Which means companies wouldn't make as much money (as they'd need to keep making extra contributions to their schemes). Which, in turn, means their profits and share prices would be lower.

    Which should be a cost of doing business instead of Nationalising the cost. The Risk is better handled by companies than individuals especially when the company is motivated by profit. In a Money Purchase Scheme even a company one, the company has no interest how effective the fund is. It makes no difference to them.

    For much of the history of Final Salary Schemes, companies were able to manage them with no need to contribute. Predominantly tax changes made them unsustainable. Remove the tax burden, enforce them. Companies will adapt.

    I'm sure you'll come back with the "no they will just go abroad". History says that's bullshit. Minimum wage anyone.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,636
    Dair said:

    For much of the history of Final Salary Schemes, companies were able to manage them with no need to contribute.

    No.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    Ed Miliband has been in Leeds today announcing Labour’s plans to woo young voters with a cut in tuition fees.

    Tab man Harry Shukman was riding with the Labour leader, and asked Miliband’s Executive Director of Communications Bob Roberts to take a pic of the pair.

    This is the photo taken by the man responsible for making Ed Miliband look good.

    http://leeds.tab.co.uk/2015/02/27/asked-labours-head-communications-take-picture-us-ed-miliband/

    Bad Al would never have allowed this kind of thing.

    It does seem rather strange to see on QT last night, that a woman whose main purpose in life is to provide artyfarty film reviews can make a sneering attack the Conservatives over pensioners benefits. Yet say nothing about the blatant electioneering bribe of Miliband in giving free money to students.

    The crime in her eyes of the Conservatives is to maintain pensioner benefits introduced by Labour, whilst the sin of the Conservatives over student fees is to accept a report commissioned by the outgoing Labour govt.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    rcs1000 said:

    Dair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Dair said:

    Alistair said:

    Dair said:



    Spend it all, retire poor and fleece the taxpayer seems to be the way forward.

    A mix of gold bars and property is by far the best retirement planning in the UK today.
    Gold! I'd rather have something paying a dividend or coupon thanks.
    As a long term investment, Gold is quite attractive. There might be better choices of commodity but VAT means Gold is the only choice for UK citizens. Hold the money in a savings account, buy 100g at a time when the price looks good.
    Which other commodities do you get charged VAT on?
    You get charged VAT on everything but there is an exemption for gold.
    So, if I buy June 2018 Soya Bean futures, I pay VAT?
    No and that's not even what I'm talking about.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    How much are local authority pensions worth when compared to a 'pot'.
    Is Miliband doing anything about them?

    Does anyone really want to put Labour within a million miles of our pensions again?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    edited February 2015

    Ed Miliband has been in Leeds today announcing Labour’s plans to woo young voters with a cut in tuition fees.

    Tab man Harry Shukman was riding with the Labour leader, and asked Miliband’s Executive Director of Communications Bob Roberts to take a pic of the pair.

    This is the photo taken by the man responsible for making Ed Miliband look good.

    http://leeds.tab.co.uk/2015/02/27/asked-labours-head-communications-take-picture-us-ed-miliband/

    Bad Al would never have allowed this kind of thing.

    It does seem rather strange to see on QT last night, that a woman whose main purpose in life is to provide artyfarty film reviews can make a sneering attack the Conservatives over pensioners benefits. Yet say nothing about the blatant electioneering bribe of Miliband in giving free money to students.

    The crime in her eyes of the Conservatives is to maintain pensioner benefits introduced by Labour, whilst the sin of the Conservatives over student fees is to accept a report commissioned by the outgoing Labour govt.
    Not sure they might have the most balanced unbiased view of potential policies :-)

    My own opinion, free tv licence gone and free bus pass seriously curtailed. The free tv licence bung is £600 million a year for starters.

    With so many of Gordo wheezes, there was always a s##t load of paperwork / admin, tax credits to freebie OAP bungs. So much cheaper to a) not take the money off them in the first place and b) just give them cash rather than nonsense like free tv licences.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171

    Populus's Sentio model (which tries to allow for coalition possibilities) now puts Labour on a 73% probability of forming the next government, though only a 2% chance of an overall majority:

    http://populusltd.cmail2.com/t/ViewEmail/r/837DF3CF7C1FF5A72540EF23F30FEDED/2310BFDBA32787670B3A73003FEB3522

    Tick tock!

    Until the disaster of a Labour Government

    I will bet you £1000 that if Labour are in charge then by the time they leave office unemployment will be higher then the date they came in.
  • Leonard Nimoy dead.


    Which feels strangely massive.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Apparently Dr Spock has gone into that space where many men have gone before.
    According to twitter Leonard Nimoy has just died at 83
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Things get progressively worse for Star Trek 3
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    Apparently Dr Spock has gone into that space where many men have gone before.
    According to twitter Leonard Nimoy has just died at 83

    Mr Spock...
    Sad news.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,041
    RIP Nimoy.
  • Back to tuition fees: what is the Labour position on postgraduate fees? Tories planning to extend the loan system to masters courses for the under 30s. Newstatesman blog asks this question:

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/02/labours-tuition-fee-policy-not-awful-still-pretty-bad
  • Sad to hear of Leonard Nimoy's death.
  • Last tweet.

    Leonard Nimoy ‏@TheRealNimoy Feb 22
    A life is like a garden. Perfect moments can be had, but not preserved, except in memory. LLAP
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited February 2015
    'Live long and prosper' Mr Spock.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    edited February 2015

    Back to tuition fees: what is the Labour position on postgraduate fees? Tories planning to extend the loan system to masters courses for the under 30s. Newstatesman blog asks this question:

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/02/labours-tuition-fee-policy-not-awful-still-pretty-bad

    "There is a real risk in other words that a Labour government will spend a lot of money fixing a problem that doesn’t exist in undergraduate education and have nothing left to fix a problem that seems real and pressing to many people in postgraduate education."

    This is huge...over past 10-15 years, we have had a significant decline in the proportion of UK citizens taking up PhDs on offer in UK universities, which is very bad news.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,133
    edited February 2015
    Spock: Don't grieve, Admiral. It is logical. The needs of the many outweigh...

    Kirk: ...the needs of the few.

    Spock: Or the one. I never took the Kobayashi Maru test until now. What do you think of my solution?

    Kirk: Spock!

    Spock: I have been, and always shall be...your friend. Live long and prosper.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    How much are local authority pensions worth when compared to a 'pot'.
    Is Miliband doing anything about them?

    Does anyone really want to put Labour within a million miles of our pensions again?

    A million index linked to RPI at age 65 with a spouse of the same age getting a 50% pension will this week using an annuity get you a smidgen over £30k at best.

    I doubt Ed cares about that maths.
  • Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    edited February 2015
    Grauniad having a rant about Nargle Fargle:

    "The Resistible Rise of Arturo Ui.....posing like a movie gangster.....And we should be scared by this photograph.

    "This is a picture of a dangerous man.....It appears on publicity material in the US, where he has gone down like a stormtrooper......Farage has unveiled his inner gangster: the street fighter, the Machiavellian bastard, showing his arrogance and thuggishness....

    "Perhaps it is the real him, the beer hall – sorry, conference hall – rabble rouser.......anyone who underestimates his threat to British decency is a fool.....

    "....a politician who has successfully created a seat-winning British party to the right of the Conservatives. That phrase makes me shudder......a deeply un-British virus, a cancer.


    continued page 94

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/feb/27/resistible-rise-of-nigel-farage-ukip
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046

    Ed Miliband has been in Leeds today announcing Labour’s plans to woo young voters with a cut in tuition fees.

    Tab man Harry Shukman was riding with the Labour leader, and asked Miliband’s Executive Director of Communications Bob Roberts to take a pic of the pair.

    This is the photo taken by the man responsible for making Ed Miliband look good.

    http://leeds.tab.co.uk/2015/02/27/asked-labours-head-communications-take-picture-us-ed-miliband/

    Bad Al would never have allowed this kind of thing.

    It does seem rather strange to see on QT last night, that a woman whose main purpose in life is to provide artyfarty film reviews can make a sneering attack the Conservatives over pensioners benefits. Yet say nothing about the blatant electioneering bribe of Miliband in giving free money to students.

    The crime in her eyes of the Conservatives is to maintain pensioner benefits introduced by Labour, whilst the sin of the Conservatives over student fees is to accept a report commissioned by the outgoing Labour govt.
    He can eat as many bacon butties as he wants to dent his personal approval ratings (and he seems to have done a good job of putting those into freefall) but EdM and Lab have won the good vs evil debate hands down.

    The $64,000 question is will they win the incompetent vs competent one also.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    edited February 2015

    Ed Miliband has been in Leeds today announcing Labour’s plans to woo young voters with a cut in tuition fees.

    Tab man Harry Shukman was riding with the Labour leader, and asked Miliband’s Executive Director of Communications Bob Roberts to take a pic of the pair.

    This is the photo taken by the man responsible for making Ed Miliband look good.

    http://leeds.tab.co.uk/2015/02/27/asked-labours-head-communications-take-picture-us-ed-miliband/

    Bad Al would never have allowed this kind of thing.

    It does seem rather strange to see on QT last night, that a woman whose main purpose in life is to provide artyfarty film reviews can make a sneering attack the Conservatives over pensioners benefits. Yet say nothing about the blatant electioneering bribe of Miliband in giving free money to students.

    The crime in her eyes of the Conservatives is to maintain pensioner benefits introduced by Labour, whilst the sin of the Conservatives over student fees is to accept a report commissioned by the outgoing Labour govt.
    Not sure they might have the most balanced unbiased view of potential policies :-)

    My own opinion, free tv licence gone and free bus pass seriously curtailed. The free tv licence bung is £600 million a year for starters.

    With so many of Gordo wheezes, there was always a s##t load of paperwork / admin, tax credits to freebie OAP bungs. So much cheaper to a) not take the money off them in the first place and b) just give them cash rather than nonsense like free tv licences.
    'free' TV is for over 75s.
    Pensions are moving to 67. Do you really think 67+ year olds are ferreting left right and centre all over the country?? True they might help for all the regular trips to the hospital or surgery.
    Pensions = fixed income for people getting older and more infirm.
    Increasingly pensioners might find themselves looking after even older pensioner parents.
    So whats the big deal.

    Solution for TV licence of course is abolishing the BBC. Not sure how we can expect a balanced coverage from the BBC (or its regular house cast of 'talent') when it is in its clear self interest to promote the lefties who want to feed it money).
  • Kirk: "We are assembled here today to pay final respects to our honoured dead. And yet it should be noted that in the midst of our sorrow, this death takes place in the shadow of new life, the sunrise of a new world; a world that our beloved comrade gave his life to protect and nourish. He did not feel this sacrifice a vain or empty one, and we will not debate his profound wisdom at these proceedings. Of my friend, I can only say this: of all the souls I have encountered in my travels, his was the most... human."
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    It was a life Jim , but not as we know it ....
  • JackW said:

    It was a life Jim , but not as we know it ....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SPBGZRRrEKM
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited February 2015
    V sad to hear about leonard nimoy star trek would have not been the same nor as good without him.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046

    Kirk: "We are assembled here today to pay final respects to our honoured dead. And yet it should be noted that in the midst of our sorrow, this death takes place in the shadow of new life, the sunrise of a new world; a world that our beloved comrade gave his life to protect and nourish. He did not feel this sacrifice a vain or empty one, and we will not debate his profound wisdom at these proceedings. Of my friend, I can only say this: of all the souls I have encountered in my travels, his was the most... human."

    Yes; unless you were wearing a red top.

    In which case your days (hours) were numbered.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,568
    edited February 2015
    Populus have just sent me a monthly summary of their polling over recent months specifically for the East Midlands, which I don't think has been published elsewhere. Unlike the national polls, which have been pretty static since October, this shows a steady decline in the Tory vote from 41% in October to 38 and 37 and 34% now. Labour'share has risen fractionally from 32 to 33 and LIbDems are up from 7 to 9 and Greens from 4 to 6. UKIP is steady on 17.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    JackW said:

    It was a life Jim , but not as we know it ....

    'The search engines canna take it Cap'n...'
    'I'm a Doctor, Jim... not an obituary writer!'
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    currystar said:

    Populus's Sentio model (which tries to allow for coalition possibilities) now puts Labour on a 73% probability of forming the next government, though only a 2% chance of an overall majority:

    http://populusltd.cmail2.com/t/ViewEmail/r/837DF3CF7C1FF5A72540EF23F30FEDED/2310BFDBA32787670B3A73003FEB3522

    Tick tock!

    Until the disaster of a Labour Government

    I will bet you £1000 that if Labour are in charge then by the time they leave office unemployment will be higher then the date they came in.
    A pretty safe bet as it also applies to every Conservative government losing office since 1945 .
    What is interesting is that if Cameron loses office it will break this 70 year old trend .
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited February 2015
    currystar said:

    Populus's Sentio model (which tries to allow for coalition possibilities) now puts Labour on a 73% probability of forming the next government, though only a 2% chance of an overall majority:

    http://populusltd.cmail2.com/t/ViewEmail/r/837DF3CF7C1FF5A72540EF23F30FEDED/2310BFDBA32787670B3A73003FEB3522

    Tick tock!

    Until the disaster of a Labour Government
    I will bet you £1000 that if Labour are in charge then by the time they leave office unemployment will be higher then the date they came in.
    Not a fair bet, that is a universal truth.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Flightpath

    'Solution for TV licence of course is abolishing the BBC. '

    Or alternatively just pass the cost of the free TV licenses to the BBC by abolishing the license fee for the over 75's.
  • Bugger. Really sad about Leonard Nimoy. A real pioneer in TV Sci Fi.

    RIP.
  • TOPPING said:

    Kirk: "We are assembled here today to pay final respects to our honoured dead. And yet it should be noted that in the midst of our sorrow, this death takes place in the shadow of new life, the sunrise of a new world; a world that our beloved comrade gave his life to protect and nourish. He did not feel this sacrifice a vain or empty one, and we will not debate his profound wisdom at these proceedings. Of my friend, I can only say this: of all the souls I have encountered in my travels, his was the most... human."

    Yes; unless you were wearing a red top.

    In which case your days (hours) were numbered.
    But they were all wearing red in Star Trek II through VI!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    edited February 2015
    BTW,,,,House of Cards Season 3 is excellent...we have Russian President Putin, I mean Petrov on the scene.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Bugger. Really sad about Leonard Nimoy. A real pioneer in TV Sci Fi.

    RIP.

    He was a very good actor but unfortunately he was typecast as Dr.Spock.
    RIP
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    currystar said:

    Populus's Sentio model (which tries to allow for coalition possibilities) now puts Labour on a 73% probability of forming the next government, though only a 2% chance of an overall majority:

    http://populusltd.cmail2.com/t/ViewEmail/r/837DF3CF7C1FF5A72540EF23F30FEDED/2310BFDBA32787670B3A73003FEB3522

    Tick tock!

    Until the disaster of a Labour Government
    I will bet you £1000 that if Labour are in charge then by the time they leave office unemployment will be higher then the date they came in.
    Not a fair bet, that is a universal truth.
    A more interesting bet would be the level of debt after a Labour Govt. It could be anything given their incontinence with our money.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,916
    RIP Leonard Nimoy as he journeys to the final frontier!
  • Speedy said:

    Bugger. Really sad about Leonard Nimoy. A real pioneer in TV Sci Fi.

    RIP.

    He was a very good actor but unfortunately he was typecast as Dr.Spock.
    RIP
    He played a villain in Columbo once :)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,916
    Farage UKIP would back the Tories deficit reduction plans to ensure the deficit is eliminated by 2018, they would also end ringfencing of overseas aid, axe HS2 and quit the EU
    http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31656700
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,848
    Charles said:

    The politics of Ed's announcement are a bit odd. If we assume for the sake of argument that the tax-increase side is correct, i.e. that they could raise £3bn from their pension raid, then spending that money on reducing the contribution which well-off graduates will in the future have to make to their university education is an interesting priority at a time of tough spending decisions.

    I think they are relying on people not doing the math.

    Essentially, they are raiding the well-off for up to £3bn

    They are spending it on something nice and fluffy that they hope will win them votes.

    But the "spending" doesn't actually cost them anything new in cash terms...which in their mad world allows them to spend it again on something else that is nice and fluffy.
    'Maths' surely.
  • currystar said:

    Populus's Sentio model (which tries to allow for coalition possibilities) now puts Labour on a 73% probability of forming the next government, though only a 2% chance of an overall majority:

    http://populusltd.cmail2.com/t/ViewEmail/r/837DF3CF7C1FF5A72540EF23F30FEDED/2310BFDBA32787670B3A73003FEB3522

    Tick tock!

    Until the disaster of a Labour Government
    I will bet you £1000 that if Labour are in charge then by the time they leave office unemployment will be higher then the date they came in.
    Not a fair bet, that is a universal truth.
    Labour have never fiddled the figures

    The Tories and the Coalition did and do (80s switching millions
    to Incapacity and still TRIPLING unemployment, and in the
    last five years sanctions at record levels and millions on ESA
    and waiting for ATOS medicals)

  • HYUFD said:

    Farage UKIP would back the Tories deficit reduction plans to ensure the deficit is eliminated by 2018, they would also end ringfencing of overseas aid, axe HS2 and quit the EU
    http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31656700

    Quitting the EU would eliminate a lot of "overseas" aid too, £10bn a year net.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    edited February 2015
    HYUFD said:

    Farage UKIP would back the Tories deficit reduction plans to ensure the deficit is eliminated by 2018.

    http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31656700

    That could put off some Labour tactical voters. The opposite of anti-austerity as you were.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Back to tuition fees: what is the Labour position on postgraduate fees? Tories planning to extend the loan system to masters courses for the under 30s. Newstatesman blog asks this question:

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/02/labours-tuition-fee-policy-not-awful-still-pretty-bad

    "There is a real risk in other words that a Labour government will spend a lot of money fixing a problem that doesn’t exist in undergraduate education and have nothing left to fix a problem that seems real and pressing to many people in postgraduate education."

    This is huge...over past 10-15 years, we have had a significant decline in the proportion of UK citizens taking up PhDs on offer in UK universities, which is very bad news.
    When were tuition fees introduced?
    Was it 10-15 years ago?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    BBC News on Jihadi John

    "Those who knew him from the area his family lived say he was a strict muslim, and never thought he would get involved in terrorism"

    Eh?

    That's surely a reason to think he would get involved in terrorism.

    "He was a chain smoker, and we never thought he would get lung cancer"
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    So Labour's new pension plans hit nurses and teachers...
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    HYUFD said:

    Farage UKIP would back the Tories deficit reduction plans to ensure the deficit is eliminated by 2018, they would also end ringfencing of overseas aid, axe HS2 and quit the EU
    http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31656700

    Quitting the EU would eliminate a lot of "overseas" aid too, £10bn a year net.
    UKIP apparently want to join EFTA. That would mean they would pay around £15bn to the EU with no rebate.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,916
    edited February 2015
    FU Good to hear, I have been finishing off Season 2 this week, last episode shortly and then will try and catch the first episode of the new Season 3 tonight and the first full episode of the Underwood Presidency
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587
    edited February 2015

    currystar said:

    Populus's Sentio model (which tries to allow for coalition possibilities) now puts Labour on a 73% probability of forming the next government, though only a 2% chance of an overall majority:

    http://populusltd.cmail2.com/t/ViewEmail/r/837DF3CF7C1FF5A72540EF23F30FEDED/2310BFDBA32787670B3A73003FEB3522

    Tick tock!

    Until the disaster of a Labour Government
    I will bet you £1000 that if Labour are in charge then by the time they leave office unemployment will be higher then the date they came in.
    Not a fair bet, that is a universal truth.
    Labour have never fiddled the figures

    Really? Never? I lack the expert knowledge of the relevant to dispute that, but it sounds implausible that they would never have done so in all their existence. Well done them if it is true.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    Can anyone explain why we are sending so many to university? (What is the percentage actually? 30,40%?) What's the rationale for such high figures?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Speedy said:

    Bugger. Really sad about Leonard Nimoy. A real pioneer in TV Sci Fi.

    RIP.

    He was a very good actor but unfortunately he was typecast as Dr.Spock.
    RIP
    He played a villain in Columbo once :)
    I remember that episode.
    I also remember the documentary he presented "In search of", here's a documentary about Nimoy from his son:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztAggdcpyBk
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Dair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farage UKIP would back the Tories deficit reduction plans to ensure the deficit is eliminated by 2018, they would also end ringfencing of overseas aid, axe HS2 and quit the EU
    http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31656700

    Quitting the EU would eliminate a lot of "overseas" aid too, £10bn a year net.
    UKIP apparently want to join EFTA. That would mean they would pay around £15bn to the EU with no rebate.
    The SNP wanted to join the EU which means they would pay around 8% of £15bn with no rebate.
  • currystar said:

    Populus's Sentio model (which tries to allow for coalition possibilities) now puts Labour on a 73% probability of forming the next government, though only a 2% chance of an overall majority:

    http://populusltd.cmail2.com/t/ViewEmail/r/837DF3CF7C1FF5A72540EF23F30FEDED/2310BFDBA32787670B3A73003FEB3522

    Tick tock!

    Until the disaster of a Labour Government
    I will bet you £1000 that if Labour are in charge then by the time they leave office unemployment will be higher then the date they came in.
    Not a fair bet, that is a universal truth.
    The Tories and the Coalition did and do (80s switching millions
    to Incapacity and still TRIPLING unemployment, and in the
    last five years sanctions at record levels and millions on ESA
    and waiting for ATOS medicals)
    "millions on ESA"

    Oh really, 2 million+ waiting for assessment? Even the leftie Guardian claimed it was 600,000 in October. Are you paid by the word by Labour?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,916
    Sunil Indeed, and also tighten the immigration laws

    Artist Indeed, but I think if Labour voters are really anti austerity they will vote Labour, or Green or SNP, they are unlikely to vote UKIP, especially if they work in the public sector. Ex Labour voters voting UKIP tend to be be working class and work in the private sector or are retired, immigration and the EU are the main issues for them, I doubt they will be too concerned about slashing overseas aid and ending HS2 either
  • kle4 said:

    currystar said:

    Populus's Sentio model (which tries to allow for coalition possibilities) now puts Labour on a 73% probability of forming the next government, though only a 2% chance of an overall majority:

    http://populusltd.cmail2.com/t/ViewEmail/r/837DF3CF7C1FF5A72540EF23F30FEDED/2310BFDBA32787670B3A73003FEB3522

    Tick tock!

    Until the disaster of a Labour Government
    I will bet you £1000 that if Labour are in charge then by the time they leave office unemployment will be higher then the date they came in.
    Not a fair bet, that is a universal truth.
    Labour have never fiddled the figures

    Really? Never? I lack the expert knowledge of the relevant to dispute that, but it sounds implausible that they would never have done so in all their existence. Well done them if it is true.
    A well known fact that Thatcher used Incapacity to cover
    up for her record on unemployment being even more horrendous
    than it actually was.

    Unemployment under 1m from 45 to 79, under Labour and One
    Nation Tory governments..then up to 3m in four years officially
    under the barmy Baroness before her UB to IB shift stopped the
    relentless rise.. and all this whilst pissing North Sea Oil revenues
    away on Tax cuts for the rich and corporations

    She should have stuck to studying Ice Cream

  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited February 2015
    Double Whammy.

    '...while graduates earning over £42,000 will also pay a higher rate of interest on their tuition fees.'

    So your pension's screwed and you ultimately have to pay more in fees.

    Any sane 20 something would be advised to get a degree, and emigrate.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    HYUFD said:

    FU Good to hear, I have been finishing off Season 2 this week, last episode shortly and then will try and catch the first episode of the new Season 3 tonight and the first full episode of the Underwood Presidency

    We know the ending, we just don't know how it will get there.
  • bloody hell, a tweet where he's not pushed one of his own books... mind you I'm sure the interview could let him do so?


    Alastair Campbell ✔ @campbellclaret
    About to talk to Andy Gray and Richard Keys in their new global TV show about Chelsea losing the plot over the Burnley non penalty
  • ONS (for our new Labour poster)
    73.2% of people aged 16-64 employed in Oct-Dec 2014. A record high http://ow.ly/JJlEC pic.twitter.com/vbZbCyecIf
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,500

    Dair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farage UKIP would back the Tories deficit reduction plans to ensure the deficit is eliminated by 2018, they would also end ringfencing of overseas aid, axe HS2 and quit the EU
    http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31656700

    Quitting the EU would eliminate a lot of "overseas" aid too, £10bn a year net.
    UKIP apparently want to join EFTA. That would mean they would pay around £15bn to the EU with no rebate.
    The SNP wanted to join the EU which means they would pay around 8% of £15bn with no rebate.
    A bully bargain it would have been as well Alan.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    malcolmg said:

    Dair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farage UKIP would back the Tories deficit reduction plans to ensure the deficit is eliminated by 2018, they would also end ringfencing of overseas aid, axe HS2 and quit the EU
    http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31656700

    Quitting the EU would eliminate a lot of "overseas" aid too, £10bn a year net.
    UKIP apparently want to join EFTA. That would mean they would pay around £15bn to the EU with no rebate.
    The SNP wanted to join the EU which means they would pay around 8% of £15bn with no rebate.
    A bully bargain it would have been as well Alan.
    Oh go on malc tell me all that top table stuff again :-)
  • Artist said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farage UKIP would back the Tories deficit reduction plans to ensure the deficit is eliminated by 2018.

    http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31656700

    That could put off some Labour tactical voters. The opposite of anti-austerity as you were.
    Dair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farage UKIP would back the Tories deficit reduction plans to ensure the deficit is eliminated by 2018, they would also end ringfencing of overseas aid, axe HS2 and quit the EU
    http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31656700

    Quitting the EU would eliminate a lot of "overseas" aid too, £10bn a year net.
    UKIP apparently want to join EFTA. That would mean they would pay around £15bn to the EU with no rebate.
    Not at the moment they don't:

    From UKIP's website:

    ///,i>– UKIP would not seek to remain in the European Free Trade Area (EFTA) or European Economic Area (EEA) while those treaties maintain a principle of free movement of labour, which prevents the UK managing its own borders.

    http://www.ukip.org/policies_for_people

  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited February 2015

    Grauniad having a rant about Nargle Fargle:

    "The Resistible Rise of Arturo Ui.....posing like a movie gangster.....And we should be scared by this photograph.

    "This is a picture of a dangerous man.....It appears on publicity material in the US, where he has gone down like a stormtrooper......Farage has unveiled his inner gangster: the street fighter, the Machiavellian bastard, showing his arrogance and thuggishness....

    "Perhaps it is the real him, the beer hall – sorry, conference hall – rabble rouser.......anyone who underestimates his threat to British decency is a fool.....

    "....a politician who has successfully created a seat-winning British party to the right of the Conservatives. That phrase makes me shudder......a deeply un-British virus, a cancer.


    continued page 94

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/feb/27/resistible-rise-of-nigel-farage-ukip

    The icing on the cake was the journalist implying he was some sort of fascist gangster because he was photographed puffing on a cigar. I have enjoyed many a cigar with people across the political spectrum and I doubt any of them are gangsters or thugs.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,916
    Welshowl Now students pay fees 'we' are not sending any, they pay for courses themselves, presumably because most middle class white collar jobs now require a degree
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,500

    malcolmg said:

    Dair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farage UKIP would back the Tories deficit reduction plans to ensure the deficit is eliminated by 2018, they would also end ringfencing of overseas aid, axe HS2 and quit the EU
    http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31656700

    Quitting the EU would eliminate a lot of "overseas" aid too, £10bn a year net.
    UKIP apparently want to join EFTA. That would mean they would pay around £15bn to the EU with no rebate.
    The SNP wanted to join the EU which means they would pay around 8% of £15bn with no rebate.
    A bully bargain it would have been as well Alan.
    Oh go on malc tell me all that top table stuff again :-)
    LOL, Alex would have been getting lined up to run the EU by now.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,916
    Speedy Indeed, will not be pulling all nighters to get there unlike some devoted fans, but will be spacing the new series out over the next few weeks, so no spoilers please
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,500
    HYUFD said:

    Welshowl Now students pay fees 'we' are not sending any, they pay for courses themselves, presumably because most middle class white collar jobs now require a degree

    You almost need a degree for JSA now, and sure Tories will get round to making it compulsory. No degree you get a zero hours contract guaranteed.
  • Hengists_GiftHengists_Gift Posts: 628
    edited February 2015
    Artist said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farage UKIP would back the Tories deficit reduction plans to ensure the deficit is eliminated by 2018.

    http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31656700

    That could put off some Labour tactical voters. The opposite of anti-austerity as you were.
    Yes but it is 'austerity' which is largely invisible to the voter. The things they want to cut are:

    EU payments
    International Aid
    Renewable Energy subsidies
    HS2
    Barnett Formula
    Closing the DCMS and DCCE

    http://www.ukip.org/policies_for_people

    Now that lot will get the Islington and Primrose Hill sets and the rest of the Guardianistas frothing in their glasses of Bollinger. But hardworking working class Labour voters. I doubt it will upset them too much.
  • Been so vexed by that pillock Miliband today, I forgot to check 'those' shares...

    BIG smile.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    The fact is, between New Labour and the Coalition a new consensus on the labour market has been formed. The irony of Labour's attacks on real wages and zero-hours contracts is that pay and hours-flexibility - rather than redundancies - were the defining features of New Labour's target labour market (with which there was considerable right-wing sympathy) as outlined in the 1998 White Paper "Fairness at Work".
  • ONS (for our new Labour poster)
    73.2% of people aged 16-64 employed in Oct-Dec 2014. A record high http://ow.ly/JJlEC pic.twitter.com/vbZbCyecIf

    "Employed" but...

    Workfare counts as employed but they only get paid their JSA money

    Zero hours counts as employed (thats a million plus) but no guaranteed
    hours (so of course no guarantee of wages)

    Self employed count as employed though many of the newly self employed in
    the last 5 years are simply doing a few hours s/employment just
    to avoid the hassle of the job centre with no real genuine business or
    career prospects

    No wonder the tax take is a disaster area and if the Lib Dems
    harebrained idea to keep on raising the rate at which tax is levied at the bottom continues
    half the country soon wont be paying any tax..no wonder there is
    a black hole in NHS funding and the deficit has barely.come
    down at all in ths last 2 years (most of the fall.in the deficit was
    as a result of the aftermath of Darlings budgets in 09 and 10)

    The poor need to be helped by higher incomes, higher benefits
    and having better public services NOT by being taken out of tax






  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    HYUFD said:

    Welshowl Now students pay fees 'we' are not sending any, they pay for courses themselves, presumably because most middle class white collar jobs now require a degree

    Point taken, but what a waste of time and resources. It's just for the most part vanity to "need" a degree to do many jobs that now say it's a requirement I'm sure.
  • Dair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farage UKIP would back the Tories deficit reduction plans to ensure the deficit is eliminated by 2018, they would also end ringfencing of overseas aid, axe HS2 and quit the EU
    http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31656700

    Quitting the EU would eliminate a lot of "overseas" aid too, £10bn a year net.
    UKIP apparently want to join EFTA. That would mean they would pay around £15bn to the EU with no rebate.
    What a load of garbage.

    1. UKIP do not want to join EFTA.
    2. Even if they did the cost to the UK would be no where near £15 billion.

    As with so many occasions in the past you show your complete ignorance of the EU.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    Yeah, just checked

    100 pounds invested in the ftse all share at the start of 2008 would be worth 138.34 now assuming no further contributions (so missing out on getting extra of the spectacular gains in 2009).

    Given the massive bull market in bonds your traditional 50/50 pension fund would be doing rather well.

    But they pay the bulk of pensions out of income: i.e. out of dividends and bond coupons.

    And have you seen where bond yields are?

    Sure but my purported 100 squids worth of pension was bought at the start of 2008 so it is the yields then that are relevent not now.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,636

    Artist said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farage UKIP would back the Tories deficit reduction plans to ensure the deficit is eliminated by 2018.

    http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31656700

    That could put off some Labour tactical voters. The opposite of anti-austerity as you were.
    Yes but it is 'austerity' which is largely invisible to the voter. The things they want to cut are:

    EU payments
    International Aid
    Renewable Energy subsidies
    HS2
    Barnett Formula
    Closing the DCMS and DCCE

    http://www.ukip.org/policies_for_people

    Now that lot will get the Islington and Primrose Hill sets and the rest of the Guardianistas frothing in their glasses of Bollinger. But hardworking working class Labour voters. I doubt it will upset them too much.
    Although some of these are more symbolic than real. Take renewable energy subsidies: we actually subsidise remarkably little, even compared to the US, Canada or Australia. Our electricity costs are determined by the international prices of gas and seaborne coal, not by wind subsidies. On a 'price-per-kilowatt hour' basis, we pay less than anyone else in developed Europe (whether in the EU or not), and less than the Australians (who have massive coals and gas reserves).

    On the same vane, closing the DCCE - well, we've always had a department of energy. Is the policy to return to that? Or is it to have no energy policy and allow the market to function? I would prefer the latter, but I suspect the policy is really the former.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    New Thread
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    edited February 2015

    ONS (for our new Labour poster)
    73.2% of people aged 16-64 employed in Oct-Dec 2014. A record high http://ow.ly/JJlEC pic.twitter.com/vbZbCyecIf

    "Employed" but...

    Workfare counts as employed but they only get paid their JSA money

    Zero hours counts as employed (thats a million plus) but no guaranteed hours (so of course no guarantee of wages)

    Self employed count as employed though many of the newly self employed in the last 5 years are simply doing a few hours s/employment just to avoid the hassle of the job centre with no real genuine business or career prospects

    No wonder the tax take is a disaster area and if the Lib Dems
    harebrained idea to keep on raising the rate at which tax is levied at the bottom continues half the country soon wont be paying any tax..no wonder there is a black hole in NHS funding and the deficit has barely.come down at all in ths last 2 years (most of the fall.in the deficit was as a result of the aftermath of Darlings budgets in 09 and 10)

    The poor need to be helped by higher incomes, higher benefits and having better public services NOT by being taken out of tax
    Many people on zero hours contracts work a considerable, regular, number of hours. For years the number of people on zero hours contracts has been systematically underestimated through the Labour Force Survey, which (generally) requires the participant to identify their own employment status.

    When the government first asked, as part of a consultation, "whether further action should be taken to address the potential abuse of zero hours contracts" the year was 1998 and the consultation was Blair's.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    welshowl said:

    Can anyone explain why we are sending so many to university? (What is the percentage actually? 30,40%?) What's the rationale for such high figures?

    The rationale was to remove post secondary education from council control.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,636

    Dair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farage UKIP would back the Tories deficit reduction plans to ensure the deficit is eliminated by 2018, they would also end ringfencing of overseas aid, axe HS2 and quit the EU
    http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31656700

    Quitting the EU would eliminate a lot of "overseas" aid too, £10bn a year net.
    UKIP apparently want to join EFTA. That would mean they would pay around £15bn to the EU with no rebate.
    What a load of garbage.

    1. UKIP do not want to join EFTA.
    2. Even if they did the cost to the UK would be no where near £15 billion.

    As with so many occasions in the past you show your complete ignorance of the EU.
    If we joined EFTA and paid the same 'toll' as the Norwegians on a per £ of GDP basis, we'd pay a little less than £4bn. If we paid the same on a per person basis, we'd pay about £2.5bn. If we had the Swiss arrangement it would be even less - although that is slightly confused by the Swiss allowing the EU to capture the "common external tariff" on some goods imported into Switzerland via EU ports.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Artist said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farage UKIP would back the Tories deficit reduction plans to ensure the deficit is eliminated by 2018.

    http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31656700

    That could put off some Labour tactical voters. The opposite of anti-austerity as you were.
    Dair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farage UKIP would back the Tories deficit reduction plans to ensure the deficit is eliminated by 2018, they would also end ringfencing of overseas aid, axe HS2 and quit the EU
    http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31656700

    Quitting the EU would eliminate a lot of "overseas" aid too, £10bn a year net.
    UKIP apparently want to join EFTA. That would mean they would pay around £15bn to the EU with no rebate.
    Not at the moment they don't:

    From UKIP's website:

    ///,i>– UKIP would not seek to remain in the European Free Trade Area (EFTA) or European Economic Area (EEA) while those treaties maintain a principle of free movement of labour, which prevents the UK managing its own borders.

    http://www.ukip.org/policies_for_people

    So no trade with Europe.

    Hahahaha. They really are a joke.
This discussion has been closed.