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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A leading academic forecasting model gives Farage just a 2%

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  • Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sweet Jesus. This is also in the Evening Standard:

    http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31638174

    Interesting how the criticism of the opposing political parties for the Tories missing their target isn't for them taking the wrong control measures, and suggesting more effective ones, but for having a target in the first place. Presumably, they'd give up all together.

    And people wonder why the establishment has a reputation for being out of touch.

    I think the attitude of the political establishment is après moi le deluge.
    The only credit i can give to the Conservatives is that I think net immmigration would be even higher (probably by around 20% above current figures) had they not undertaken their limited reforms.
    I note Dave's promise is now an "ambition"
    His words are worthless. They can change in an instant.
    Dave has ambitions of outperforming John Major in 1992.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Casino_Royale
    I am biased of course, but I really mean it when I say Dave is an empty PR "suit".
  • antifrank said:


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    Fiorentina 2 Spurs 0
    Besiktas 1 Liverpool 0

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    Retweeted by Iain Martin

    EVERTON 7 Young Boys 2 (aggregate) at HT
    Everton are spanking Young Boys I see.
    Tykejohnno, can you hear me? Young Boys took a hell of a beating! Young Boys took a hell of a beating!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411

    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sweet Jesus. This is also in the Evening Standard:

    http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31638174

    Interesting how the criticism of the opposing political parties for the Tories missing their target isn't for them taking the wrong control measures, and suggesting more effective ones, but for having a target in the first place. Presumably, they'd give up all together.

    And people wonder why the establishment has a reputation for being out of touch.

    I think the attitude of the political establishment is après moi le deluge.
    The only credit i can give to the Conservatives is that I think net immmigration would be even higher (probably by around 20% above current figures) had they not undertaken their limited reforms.
    I note Dave's promise is now an "ambition"
    His words are worthless. They can change in an instant.
    Dave has ambitions of outperforming John Major in 1992.
    He's no Major !
  • Mr. Royale, it was an intensely stupid promise to make.

    Incidentally, I have the ambition of out-selling George RR Martin and having my books developed into a set of TV series, videogames and films.

    I had no problem with the promise, and, indeed, voted for it; just like millions of other people.

    I felt it was achievable and expected it to be met.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    edited February 2015
    Can someone give me a link to the Scottish seats projection on electoral calculus?

    Is immensely urgent.
  • Smarmeron said:

    @Casino_Royale
    I am biased of course, but I really mean it when I say Dave is an empty PR "suit".

    I think you're right. The thing is: I think Ed Miliband really does know what he wants to do and that, for me, makes him more dangerous.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Pulpstar
    Major might be a Tory, but he is/was a decent man.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411

    Can someone give me a link to the Scottish seats projection on electoral calculus?

    Is immensely urgent.

    Payday tommorow, do I need to blow the month's wages rebacking SLAB ?
  • Pulpstar said:

    Can someone give me a link to the Scottish seats projection on electoral calculus?

    Is immensely urgent.

    Payday tommorow, do I need to blow the month's wages rebacking SLAB ?
    Find out at 10pm.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sweet Jesus. This is also in the Evening Standard:

    http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31638174

    Interesting how the criticism of the opposing political parties for the Tories missing their target isn't for them taking the wrong control measures, and suggesting more effective ones, but for having a target in the first place. Presumably, they'd give up all together.

    And people wonder why the establishment has a reputation for being out of touch.

    I think the attitude of the political establishment is après moi le deluge.
    The only credit i can give to the Conservatives is that I think net immmigration would be even higher (probably by around 20% above current figures) had they not undertaken their limited reforms.
    I note Dave's promise is now an "ambition"
    His words are worthless. They can change in an instant.
    Dave has ambitions of outperforming John Major in 1992.
    He's no Major !
    "Prime Minister, I served with John Major. I knew John Major. John Major was a friend of mine. Prime Minister, you're no John Major!"
    :lol:
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Casino_Royale
    We can, and probably will, argue about dangerous, but I am not convinced, as many on here are, that Ed can be written off so soon.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Can someone give me a link to the Scottish seats projection on electoral calculus?

    Is immensely urgent.

    Do you mean this?

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll_scot.html
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538

    Can someone give me a link to the Scottish seats projection on electoral calculus?

    Is immensely urgent.

    Is this to do with Survation?

  • Can someone give me a link to the Scottish seats projection on electoral calculus?

    Is immensely urgent.

    Do you mean this?

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll_scot.html
    Yeah, that's the bugger.

    Many thanks
  • Can someone give me a link to the Scottish seats projection on electoral calculus?

    Is immensely urgent.

    This one?

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/scotland.html
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Pulpstar said:

    Can someone give me a link to the Scottish seats projection on electoral calculus?

    Is immensely urgent.

    Payday tommorow, do I need to blow the month's wages rebacking SLAB ?
    No, Tory Surge North of the border.................... Every penny you have (and nothing bigger than a penny)...........
  • F1: new Force India should debut tomorrow. Just three days of testing, but if it goes smoothly it'll be interesting to see if they can get more mileage than McLaren.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited February 2015

    Can someone give me a link to the Scottish seats projection on electoral calculus?

    Is immensely urgent.

    Is there a poll showing what some of the latest subsamples have?

    Lab last two on YG - 19 and 22
    Ashcroft 19
    Populus last Friday - 21
    ICM - 21
    Comres online - 13
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,041
    philiph said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Can someone give me a link to the Scottish seats projection on electoral calculus?

    Is immensely urgent.

    Payday tommorow, do I need to blow the month's wages rebacking SLAB ?
    No, Tory Surge North of the border.................... Every penny you have (and nothing bigger than a penny)...........
    A whole two seats!
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    RobD said:

    philiph said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Can someone give me a link to the Scottish seats projection on electoral calculus?

    Is immensely urgent.

    Payday tommorow, do I need to blow the month's wages rebacking SLAB ?
    No, Tory Surge North of the border.................... Every penny you have (and nothing bigger than a penny)...........
    A whole two seats!
    A whole 100% up!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    philiph said:

    RobD said:

    philiph said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Can someone give me a link to the Scottish seats projection on electoral calculus?

    Is immensely urgent.

    Payday tommorow, do I need to blow the month's wages rebacking SLAB ?
    No, Tory Surge North of the border.................... Every penny you have (and nothing bigger than a penny)...........
    A whole two seats!
    A whole 100% up!
    Dumfries and Galloway is in play in my opinion.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Oh hold on I think I've just twigged.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited February 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    philiph said:

    RobD said:

    philiph said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Can someone give me a link to the Scottish seats projection on electoral calculus?

    Is immensely urgent.

    Payday tommorow, do I need to blow the month's wages rebacking SLAB ?
    No, Tory Surge North of the border.................... Every penny you have (and nothing bigger than a penny)...........
    A whole two seats!
    A whole 100% up!
    Dumfries and Galloway is in play in my opinion.
    Which seat is Edinburgh Zoo in? It would be poetic justice if they (Pandas) had a Tory MP.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Survation. ‏@Survation 2h2 hours ago
    **POLL ALERT** - We'll have some new and interesting constituency polling here at 10pm - stay tuned... #pollercoaster #ge2015
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    As a resident of Kent, I personally believe it is highly unlikely that Farage will not win his seat. Seemingly every second person around here is tempted by UKIP. I was hoping that the Conservatives' early action on immigration would give enough good news in this area to tempt back UKIP waverers. Unfortunately, today's numbers from the Office for National Statistics have shown we have not done enough. Nigel's personal name recognition will likely carry him over the line.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @chestnut
    Sounds a whole lot more impressive than "We haven't clue, and it is margin of error"?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,386
    chestnut said:

    Survation. ‏@Survation 2h2 hours ago
    **POLL ALERT** - We'll have some new and interesting constituency polling here at 10pm - stay tuned... #pollercoaster #ge2015

    Ooooooooooo... An unexpected turn of events.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    chestnut said:

    Survation. ‏@Survation 2h2 hours ago
    **POLL ALERT** - We'll have some new and interesting constituency polling here at 10pm - stay tuned... #pollercoaster #ge2015

    Won't worry too much if Labour are ahead in Edi South
  • Well what I have is nothing to do with Survation.
  • Well, I like that poll.
  • New Thread
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,041
    Something about drawers??
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Nigel Farage MP
This discussion has been closed.