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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A leading academic forecasting model gives Farage just a 2%

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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited February 2015
    @TheScreamingEagles
    No need to panic, there is about a one in several thousand chance of anything getting near a court of law.
    Edit: I mean in the UK of course.
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited February 2015

    Smarmeron said:

    @TheWatcher

    "In its annual report earlier RBS said "a prosecuting authority in Germany is undertaking an investigation into Coutts & Co Ltd in Switzerland, and current and former employees, for alleged aiding and abetting of tax evasion by certain Coutts & Co Ltd clients". It adds the bank is "cooperating with the authority"."

    I wonder if anyone interesting banked with them?

    Coutts and Co have a pretty high bar to bank with them.

    So all their clients are either very wealthy and or high earners.
    Note that it's Coutts International that's in trouble, not Coutts UK operations which were split off.
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    CD13 said:

    B*gger, just realised Boston would be 5/1 only.

    Will JackW, Mr Senior or Antifrank give me 50/1 for Boston? I know they're normally sensible erudite posters who have a better knowledge than me of betting, but where Ukip is concerned, they act like a Victorian lady with a mouse running up her leg.

    I've bet on UKIP winning Boston & Skegness (and indeed I have quite a portfolio of bets on the kippers).
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @TheWatcher
    Riiiiiight, so what were the heads of a British based bank apologising for yesterday then?
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    Hengists_GiftHengists_Gift Posts: 628
    edited February 2015
    GIN1138 said:

    Personally I don't think Farage will do it and I reckon he'll stand down as UKIP leader after 7th May in favour of Carswell.

    If Farage does stand down, and given he is secure until 2018, I suspect he will remain leader well into the next parliament, but even if not Carswell does not yet have any real track record with UKIP members. He's the new boy on the block and making statements which could be misrepresented by an unhelpful media about Immigration will not necessarily help his reputation.

    Personally if Farage steps down I'd expect the favourites to replace him to be Evans , James, Nuttall and Woolfe. I'm not even sure Carswell would stand and the idea that he would defect to UKIP and immediately stand for leader sounds rather arrogant and could be construed as an attempt to hijack the party. He really needs to earn his spurs with UKIP before he is elevated within it. Has Farage given him a portfolio to speak on yet? Has he made any noises about the leadership? One of the things that is notable about Carswell is that he at no point held any responsibilities above and beyond his MP function for the Tory party (despite having about the most improved Tory constituency party in the country).

    From what I can see all he is doing is what he always has done which is lobby for ethical politics, free market economics, small central government and decentralisation. That does not add up to a leadership bid.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Smarmeron said:

    @TheWatcher

    "In its annual report earlier RBS said "a prosecuting authority in Germany is undertaking an investigation into Coutts & Co Ltd in Switzerland, and current and former employees, for alleged aiding and abetting of tax evasion by certain Coutts & Co Ltd clients". It adds the bank is "cooperating with the authority"."

    I wonder if anyone interesting banked with them?

    Coutts and Co have a pretty high bar to bank with them.

    So all their clients are either very wealthy and or high earners.
    Note that it's Coutts International that's in trouble, not Coutts UK operations which were split off.
    That would be the arm of Coutts they were trying to sell off? Indeed when it was reported they were trying to sell it off it was also reported that they were helping authorities with questions about tax avoidance. I mean is there a bank in all of Switzerland that isnt helping someone with questions about tax avoidance (be that regulators or customers)?

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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Coutts and Co have a pretty high bar to bank with them.

    So all their clients are either very wealthy and or high earners.

    Directors at RBS got Coutts accounts as part of their deal
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    Looks about right (apart from the bit about companies relocating to Scotland, of course).
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    Je suise Swiss?
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Scott_P said:

    Coutts and Co have a pretty high bar to bank with them.

    So all their clients are either very wealthy and or high earners.

    Directors at RBS got Coutts accounts as part of their deal
    How else were they going to manage the tax liabilities arising from the associated bonuses?!

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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    edited February 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    Neil said:

    Neil said:

    re Greens chances in Bristol - what will definitely help is the 800% (yes, 800%!) increase in membership in a year. They now have nearly 2,000 members there. That's a doubling of membership in less than two months. That will definitely have an impact.

    Isn't there a serious danger that some of them will attempt to promote Green policies to the electorate?
    Not after they've been through the induction process. I doubt anyone who wants to talk policy will be let loose on the door steps.

    What's the secret strategy then? Green face paint, free balloons and a pitch of "let Westminster know you've had enough"?

    If so, 7/2 looks massive.
    The comments on http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/bristolwest/comment-page-7/#comments have made me a believer.

    "The have way overestimated the SNP in Scotland and underestimated the Lib Dems too, overwhelmingly so in the case of Bristol West."

    Electionsforecast for the SNP is bang in line with Ladbrokes odds and SPIN.

    & 2000 local members indicates an SNP like swing is well possible.

    I've had a tenner at 7-2 anyway.
    Some Green leaning supporters have blocked redevelopment of both Rovers and City football grounds and have opposed new floodlights at The Cricket Ground. The Bristol Green Capital stuff could backfire, on them, if money keeps being channelled to art works rather than longer term recycling schemes.

    Greens have a huge mountain to climb, Williams had a huge majority, and Labour's vote was substantial last time round. If the Greens win it would be a sensational result.
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited February 2015
    Smarmeron said:

    @TheWatcher
    Riiiiiight, so what were the heads of a British based bank apologising for yesterday then?

    Today, the activities of a Swiss division.

    Now, tell me about all those Equitable Life Names bailed out by HMG, or were they Lloyds Bank customers. Have you figured it out yet?
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited February 2015
    @Neil
    Cameron's father's bank? It closed when the original tax avoidance legislation came into force and concentrated on other opportunities.
    Panama I think?
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,352
    Antifrank,

    "I've bet on UKIP winning Boston & Skegness (and indeed I have quite a portfolio of bets on the kippers)."

    Curses! Foiled again.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,018
    dr_spyn said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Neil said:

    Neil said:

    re Greens chances in Bristol - what will definitely help is the 800% (yes, 800%!) increase in membership in a year. They now have nearly 2,000 members there. That's a doubling of membership in less than two months. That will definitely have an impact.

    Isn't there a serious danger that some of them will attempt to promote Green policies to the electorate?
    Not after they've been through the induction process. I doubt anyone who wants to talk policy will be let loose on the door steps.

    What's the secret strategy then? Green face paint, free balloons and a pitch of "let Westminster know you've had enough"?

    If so, 7/2 looks massive.
    The comments on http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/bristolwest/comment-page-7/#comments have made me a believer.

    "The have way overestimated the SNP in Scotland and underestimated the Lib Dems too, overwhelmingly so in the case of Bristol West."

    Electionsforecast for the SNP is bang in line with Ladbrokes odds and SPIN.

    & 2000 local members indicates an SNP like swing is well possible.

    I've had a tenner at 7-2 anyway.
    Some Green leaning supporters have blocked redevelopment of both Rovers and City football grounds and have opposed new floodlights at The Cricket Ground. The Bristol Green Capital stuff could backfire, on them, if money keeps being channelled to art works rather than longer term recycling schemes.

    Greens have a huge mountain to climb, Williams had a huge majority, and Labour's vote was substantial last time round. If the Greens win it would be a sensational result.
    This is precisely the sort of seat you'd expect the Lib Dem vote to collapse the most. I can see it happening.
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    Up to last year my main day to day bank account was with the Co-op.

    I know an admission like that will get me kicked out of the PB Tories but I'm proud of my association with the bank of the Crystal Methodist
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Neil said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @TheWatcher

    "In its annual report earlier RBS said "a prosecuting authority in Germany is undertaking an investigation into Coutts & Co Ltd in Switzerland, and current and former employees, for alleged aiding and abetting of tax evasion by certain Coutts & Co Ltd clients". It adds the bank is "cooperating with the authority"."

    I wonder if anyone interesting banked with them?

    Coutts and Co have a pretty high bar to bank with them.

    So all their clients are either very wealthy and or high earners.
    Note that it's Coutts International that's in trouble, not Coutts UK operations which were split off.
    That would be the arm of Coutts they were trying to sell off? Indeed when it was reported they were trying to sell it off it was also reported that they were helping authorities with questions about tax avoidance. I mean is there a bank in all of Switzerland that isnt helping someone with questions about tax avoidance (be that regulators or customers)?

    They're separate banks sharing the same branding, which RBS would keep were the international division sold.
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @TheWatcher
    I figured it out at the time dear Watcher.
    Having watched them snivel and whine for weeks about losing the ancestral piles.
    And I don't mean the haemorrhoids they got from sitting on their fat arses collecting money when the times were good
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited February 2015
    MaxPB said:

    Anorak said:

    MaxPB said:

    Anorak said:

    MaxPB said:

    FPT @MaxPB :

    That's why we should halt the current nuclear investment plans and just go all in with gas turbines. We should not be lumbered with old style PWRs for the next 50 years because of the short sightedness of politicians.
    Gas leaves us open to colossal fluctuations in commodity prices, and beholden to foreign powers. Doesn't sound too clever to me.
    That is already the case and gas is cheaper than the guaranteed strike price agreed for the nuclear reactor planned. It would be a case of no change.
    Not changing from a situation means it must be ok. Hmmm.

    Gas may be currently cheaper but historically has been much, much higher. It will be again. The price of nuclear is only very, very weakly related to the cost of (plentiful) uranium.
    Gas is and has always been cheaper than the guaranteed strike price and Uranium isn't cheap or plentiful, we're at or near Peak Uranium and Uranium prices are just as prone to fluctuation as oil and gas.

    Additionally we have no domestic Uranium mines, we do, however, have domestic gas reserves on shore.

    This idea that nuclear power is the solution is fraught with issues, that's without taking waste disposal expenses into account.
    1) Australia has by far the largest uranium reserves in the world, with only 10% of proven reserves extracted to date. Russia and Qatar have the largest gas reserves. Who would you rather deal with? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_uranium_reserves

    2) We are nowhere near peak uranium, especially as large users like Japan and Germany move away from the technology. That's just plain wrong.

    3) Even if you're right (and you're not) then the cost of the fuel is a rounding error in the cost of nuclear power, but 80% of the cost of operating a gas turbine. Price fluctuations don't matter to nuclear.

    4) Our onshore gas reserves would be environmentally damaging to extract and - under your bonkers scenario of switching all new generating capacity to gas - exhausted in no time.

    5) Waste from new gen power stations is an order of magnitude less, and easier to deal with than from older stations. It's a pathetic NIMBY issue driven by ignorant fools.
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    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    Up to last year my main day to day bank account was with the Co-op.

    I know an admission like that will get me kicked out of the PB Tories but I'm proud of my association with the bank of the Crystal Methodist

    I still bank with the workers' bank. It was the "we turned down £3bn of business last year" part that always gave me the giggles. How big was that black hole again?

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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Smarmeron said:

    @TheWatcher
    I figured it out at the time dear Watcher.
    Having watched them snivel and whine for weeks about losing the ancestral piles.
    And I don't mean the haemorrhoids they got from sitting on their fat arses collecting money when the times were good

    Lloyds Names lost their piles, Equitable Life customers were compensated for Regulatory Failure. Easy.
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @TheWatcher
    Yes dear, of course they did.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Smarmeron said:

    @TheWatcher
    I figured it out at the time dear Watcher.
    Having watched them snivel and whine for weeks about losing the ancestral piles.
    And I don't mean the haemorrhoids they got from sitting on their fat arses collecting money when the times were good

    Lloyds Names lost their piles, Equitable Life customers were compensated for Regulatory Failure. Easy.

    Equitable Life customers got nominal compensation after the Government consistently tried to get off the hook for its regulatory failures. I'm confused about the reference to Equitable Life names.

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    Grandiose said:

    Up to last year my main day to day bank account was with the Co-op.

    I know an admission like that will get me kicked out of the PB Tories but I'm proud of my association with the bank of the Crystal Methodist

    I still bank with the workers' bank. It was the "we turned down £3bn of business last year" part that always gave me the giggles. How big was that black hole again?

    That made me giggle too.

    I kept my account but the latest wave of branch closures means they are going to be a very niche bank.
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited February 2015
    Neil said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @TheWatcher
    I figured it out at the time dear Watcher.
    Having watched them snivel and whine for weeks about losing the ancestral piles.
    And I don't mean the haemorrhoids they got from sitting on their fat arses collecting money when the times were good

    Lloyds Names lost their piles, Equitable Life customers were compensated for Regulatory Failure. Easy.

    Equitable Life customers got nominal compensation after the Government consistently tried to get off the hook for its regulatory failures. I'm confused about the reference to Equitable Life names.

    Smarmeron appears to enjoy muddling up Names with EL Customers. Or something. His little joke.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,028

    GIN1138 said:

    Personally I don't think Farage will do it and I reckon he'll stand down as UKIP leader after 7th May in favour of Carswell.

    If Farage does stand down, and given he is secure until 2018, I suspect he will remain leader well into the next parliament, but even if not Carswell does not yet have any real track record with UKIP members. He's the new boy on the block and making statements which could be misrepresented by an unhelpful media about Immigration will not necessarily help his reputation.

    Personally if Farage steps down I'd expect the favourites to replace him to be Evans , James, Nuttall and Woolfe. I'm not even sure Carswell would stand and the idea that he would defect to UKIP and immediately stand for leader sounds rather arrogant and could be construed as an attempt to hijack the party. He really needs to earn his spurs with UKIP before he is elevated within it. Has Farage given him a portfolio to speak on yet? Has he made any noises about the leadership? One of the things that is notable about Carswell is that he at no point held any responsibilities above and beyond his MP function for the Tory party (despite having about the most improved Tory constituency party in the country).

    From what I can see all he is doing is what he always has done which is lobby for ethical politics, free market economics, small central government and decentralisation. That does not add up to a leadership bid.
    Carswell usefully short in the betting if you fancied backing someone else, awful value favourite, doubt he is at all interested in the job, or would get it.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Pulpstar said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Neil said:

    Neil said:

    re Greens chances in Bristol - what will definitely help is the 800% (yes, 800%!) increase in membership in a year. They now have nearly 2,000 members there. That's a doubling of membership in less than two months. That will definitely have an impact.

    Isn't there a serious danger that some of them will attempt to promote Green policies to the electorate?
    Not after they've been through the induction process. I doubt anyone who wants to talk policy will be let loose on the door steps.

    What's the secret strategy then? Green face paint, free balloons and a pitch of "let Westminster know you've had enough"?

    If so, 7/2 looks massive.
    The comments on http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/bristolwest/comment-page-7/#comments have made me a believer.

    "The have way overestimated the SNP in Scotland and underestimated the Lib Dems too, overwhelmingly so in the case of Bristol West."

    Electionsforecast for the SNP is bang in line with Ladbrokes odds and SPIN.

    & 2000 local members indicates an SNP like swing is well possible.

    I've had a tenner at 7-2 anyway.
    Some Green leaning supporters have blocked redevelopment of both Rovers and City football grounds and have opposed new floodlights at The Cricket Ground. The Bristol Green Capital stuff could backfire, on them, if money keeps being channelled to art works rather than longer term recycling schemes.

    Greens have a huge mountain to climb, Williams had a huge majority, and Labour's vote was substantial last time round. If the Greens win it would be a sensational result.
    This is precisely the sort of seat you'd expect the Lib Dem vote to collapse the most. I can see it happening.
    This is precisely the sort of seat you'd expect the Lib Dem vote to collapse the most. I can see it happening.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2635019/Councillor-slammed-complained-salary-Twitter-despite-earning-32-000-year.html

    Not all publicity for Greens has been positive, same guy has stepped down after a melt-down on Twitter. LD leaflets have focussed on Labour's failings complete with photos of Balls and Miliband, strong indirect appeal to Tory voters. In many ways Labour ought to be in a stronger position than The Greens. If you win your bet I would be very surprised,
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    isamisam Posts: 41,028
    Iain Dale (@IainDale)
    26/02/2015 15:21
    Mohammed Emwazi was "kind gentle, soft-spoken, humble", according to @UK_CAGE. Course he was. Loved animals too, no doubt. Give me strength.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,463
    As ever, unintentionally very funny Polly thread "If they turn out, young voters can get Cameron out."

    theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/feb/26/turn-out-young-voters-get-david-cameron-out

    Comment of the thread:

    "Don't count on it, my two can't even tidy their bedrooms."
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    House of Cards Season 3 out tomorrow...that's my weekend done for then.
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Brom said:

    Brom said:

    I can't imagine how Kelly Tolhurst is expected to land 40% of the vote unless it's a different Kelly Tolhurst to the one who stood in November.

    Why not? She got 35% in the by-election. It would not be at all surprising if in the GE the Conservatives do a little better.
    Maybe so, but I suppose I was more getting at the 16% winning margin. Similarly in Clacton it predicts Carswell to win by a narrow 5%, and while I do expect his majority to decrease I get the impression that in these 2 cases the model hasn't taken into account that people are less likely to change their vote when the you've had a by-election only a few months prior (and particularly in Rochester where the candidates remain the same).
    That's not true

    We saw in 1992 a string of by election gains being reversed when the same candidates stood again.
    Indeed. Looking through the records I noticed Leicester South, Monmouth etc. I guess the uniqueness here is that those by-election winners were never the constituency MP in the first place, unlike in Rochester & Clacton. Depends how much influence we expect a candidate has compared to a party. A very unique scenario and I guess as has been stated given that the model ignores personalities there's very little in the way of data that'll prove useful.

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    notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    dr_spyn said:

    Pulpstar said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Neil said:

    Neil said:

    re Greens chances in Bristol - what will definitely help is the 800% (yes, 800%!) increase in membership in a year. They now have nearly 2,000 members there. That's a doubling of membership in less than two months. That will definitely have an impact.

    Isn't there a serious danger that some of them will attempt to promote Green policies to the electorate?
    Not after they've been through the induction process. I doubt anyone who wants to talk policy will be let loose on the door steps.

    What's the secret strategy then? Green face paint, free balloons and a pitch of "let Westminster know you've had enough"?

    If so, 7/2 looks massive.
    The comments on http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/bristolwest/comment-page-7/#comments have made me a believer.

    "The have way overestimated the SNP in Scotland and underestimated the Lib Dems too, overwhelmingly so in the case of Bristol West."

    Electionsforecast for the SNP is bang in line with Ladbrokes odds and SPIN.

    & 2000 local members indicates an SNP like swing is well possible.

    I've had a tenner at 7-2 anyway.
    Some Green leaning supporters have blocked redevelopment of both Rovers and City football grounds and have opposed new floodlights at The Cricket Ground. The Bristol Green Capital stuff could backfire, on them, if money keeps being channelled to art works rather than longer term recycling schemes.

    Greens have a huge mountain to climb, Williams had a huge majority, and Labour's vote was substantial last time round. If the Greens win it would be a sensational result.
    This is precisely the sort of seat you'd expect the Lib Dem vote to collapse the most. I can see it happening.
    This is precisely the sort of seat you'd expect the Lib Dem vote to collapse the most. I can see it happening.
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2635019/Councillor-slammed-complained-salary-Twitter-despite-earning-32-000-year.html

    Not all publicity for Greens has been positive, same guy has stepped down after a melt-down on Twitter. LD leaflets have focussed on Labour's failings complete with photos of Balls and Miliband, strong indirect appeal to Tory voters. In many ways Labour ought to be in a stronger position than The Greens. If you win your bet I would be very surprised,

    This man really stood down? Over this? FFS. Really?
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    edited February 2015
    isam said:

    Iain Dale (@IainDale)
    26/02/2015 15:21
    Mohammed Emwazi was "kind gentle, soft-spoken, humble", according to @UK_CAGE. Course he was. Loved animals too, no doubt. Give me strength.

    Cage Prisoners really going into bat for him. You would think they would be running a mile from any association with a barbaric mass murderer or perhaps not.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Neil said:

    re Greens chances in Bristol - what will definitely help is the 800% (yes, 800%!) increase in membership in a year. They now have nearly 2,000 members there. That's a doubling of membership in less than two months. That will definitely have an impact.

    The increase in Green membership of 800% is at best a myth . When I asked whether Bristol West constituency Green Party or the umbrella organisation Bristol Green Party would be filing accounts for year 2014 , the answer was that income was below the level that necessitated filing accounts
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    I have just been looking at what the polls were saying 10 weeks prior to the last three general elections

    End of Feb 2010 Con +6 Outcome Con +7.3

    End of Feb 2005 Lab +6 -7 Outcome Lab +3

    End of March 2001 Lab +15 Outcome Lab +9

    In each case, therefore, the final 10 weeks saw a swing to the Opposition.

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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @TheWatcher
    "Dilution of liabilities and the consequences" (bottom of the page, but the rest is equally facinating)

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lloyd's_of_London
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    edited February 2015
    @MaajidNawaz

    I went to uni w/@UK_Cage's Asim Quereshi.He's fan of extremist Haitham Haddad who's spking at Wstminstr uni 2night.Emwazi went to Wstmnstr 2

    Some people / organisations who have donated lots of money to Cage might want to have a closer look the sort of people they have been funding, Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust for one. Wonder what old Joseph Rowntree would have thought this, given his Quaker background?
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    Brom said:

    Brom said:

    Brom said:

    I can't imagine how Kelly Tolhurst is expected to land 40% of the vote unless it's a different Kelly Tolhurst to the one who stood in November.

    Why not? She got 35% in the by-election. It would not be at all surprising if in the GE the Conservatives do a little better.
    Maybe so, but I suppose I was more getting at the 16% winning margin. Similarly in Clacton it predicts Carswell to win by a narrow 5%, and while I do expect his majority to decrease I get the impression that in these 2 cases the model hasn't taken into account that people are less likely to change their vote when the you've had a by-election only a few months prior (and particularly in Rochester where the candidates remain the same).
    That's not true

    We saw in 1992 a string of by election gains being reversed when the same candidates stood again.
    Indeed. Looking through the records I noticed Leicester South, Monmouth etc. I guess the uniqueness here is that those by-election winners were never the constituency MP in the first place, unlike in Rochester & Clacton. Depends how much influence we expect a candidate has compared to a party. A very unique scenario and I guess as has been stated given that the model ignores personalities there's very little in the way of data that'll prove useful.

    Yup. Last time I checked Carswell took quite a lot of activists and councillors with him. Reckless did not.

    So you could use that as a proxy and the difference in their majorities.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,028

    Brom said:

    Brom said:

    Brom said:

    I can't imagine how Kelly Tolhurst is expected to land 40% of the vote unless it's a different Kelly Tolhurst to the one who stood in November.

    Why not? She got 35% in the by-election. It would not be at all surprising if in the GE the Conservatives do a little better.
    Maybe so, but I suppose I was more getting at the 16% winning margin. Similarly in Clacton it predicts Carswell to win by a narrow 5%, and while I do expect his majority to decrease I get the impression that in these 2 cases the model hasn't taken into account that people are less likely to change their vote when the you've had a by-election only a few months prior (and particularly in Rochester where the candidates remain the same).
    That's not true

    We saw in 1992 a string of by election gains being reversed when the same candidates stood again.
    Indeed. Looking through the records I noticed Leicester South, Monmouth etc. I guess the uniqueness here is that those by-election winners were never the constituency MP in the first place, unlike in Rochester & Clacton. Depends how much influence we expect a candidate has compared to a party. A very unique scenario and I guess as has been stated given that the model ignores personalities there's very little in the way of data that'll prove useful.

    Yup. Last time I checked Carswell took quite a lot of activists and councillors with him. Reckless did not.

    So you could use that as a proxy and the difference in their majorities.
    I don't think that's right regarding councillor/ activist defections
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    edited February 2015
    @notme
    Twitter meltdown came later - though he had had problems with purchase of ex council house.

    http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/Bristol-Councillor-Gus-Hoyt-resigns-council-s/story-25713254-detail/story.html
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    justin124 said:


    I have just been looking at what the polls were saying 10 weeks prior to the last three general elections

    End of Feb 2010 Con +6 Outcome Con +7.3

    End of Feb 2005 Lab +6 -7 Outcome Lab +3

    End of March 2001 Lab +15 Outcome Lab +9

    In each case, therefore, the final 10 weeks saw a swing to the Opposition.

    What you should have said is that it showed a swing to the Tories.

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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Pulpstar said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Neil said:

    Neil said:

    re Greens chances in Bristol - what will definitely help is the 800% (yes, 800%!) increase in membership in a year. They now have nearly 2,000 members there. That's a doubling of membership in less than two months. That will definitely have an impact.

    Isn't there a serious danger that some of them will attempt to promote Green policies to the electorate?
    Not after they've been through the induction process. I doubt anyone who wants to talk policy will be let loose on the door steps.

    What's the secret strategy then? Green face paint, free balloons and a pitch of "let Westminster know you've had enough"?

    If so, 7/2 looks massive.
    The comments on http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/bristolwest/comment-page-7/#comments have made me a believer.

    "The have way overestimated the SNP in Scotland and underestimated the Lib Dems too, overwhelmingly so in the case of Bristol West."

    Electionsforecast for the SNP is bang in line with Ladbrokes odds and SPIN.

    & 2000 local members indicates an SNP like swing is well possible.

    I've had a tenner at 7-2 anyway.
    Some Green leaning supporters have blocked redevelopment of both Rovers and City football grounds and have opposed new floodlights at The Cricket Ground. The Bristol Green Capital stuff could backfire, on them, if money keeps being channelled to art works rather than longer term recycling schemes.

    Greens have a huge mountain to climb, Williams had a huge majority, and Labour's vote was substantial last time round. If the Greens win it would be a sensational result.
    This is precisely the sort of seat you'd expect the Lib Dem vote to collapse the most. I can see it happening.
    You mean like in the local elections last year and in 2013 in Bristol West which showed the Lib Dems in a clear lead
  • Options
    justin124 said:


    I have just been looking at what the polls were saying 10 weeks prior to the last three general elections

    End of Feb 2010 Con +6 Outcome Con +7.3

    End of Feb 2005 Lab +6 -7 Outcome Lab +3

    End of March 2001 Lab +15 Outcome Lab +9

    In each case, therefore, the final 10 weeks saw a swing to the Opposition.

    Or a swing to the Conservatives, if you prefer. However, three data points does not a summer make.
  • Options
    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Neil said:

    re Greens chances in Bristol - what will definitely help is the 800% (yes, 800%!) increase in membership in a year. They now have nearly 2,000 members there. That's a doubling of membership in less than two months. That will definitely have an impact.

    The increase in Green membership of 800% is at best a myth . When I asked whether Bristol West constituency Green Party or the umbrella organisation Bristol Green Party would be filing accounts for year 2014 , the answer was that income was below the level that necessitated filing accounts
    How do you you think you've proved that the membership figures are a myth?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    edited February 2015
    @MaajidNawaz

    This @UK_CAGE press conference is nothing but live propaganda for the Islamist ideological narrative, full of half-truths & victimhood

    Asim Qureshi speaks at Hizb ut-Tahrir rally

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DXGPqyK3Srg#t=18

    Wonder if any of the media going to ask any awkward questions? I certainly hope so. Or are we going to have a nice quiet chat with these guys over how the nasty intelligence services created Jihadi John?

    I hope the likes of Anita Roddick are proud that their foundation have pumped money to these people.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,242
    If you want to know what CagedPrisoners and Moazzem Begg are really like - rather than the soft soap propaganda they like to come out with - read this: http://jacobinism.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/facts-and-context-be-damned.html

    And this is the speaker who will be speaking at Westminster University (sic) - http://hurryupharry.org/2015/02/25/haitham-haddad-–-no-apostates-will-escape-death/
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Neil said:

    Neil said:

    re Greens chances in Bristol - what will definitely help is the 800% (yes, 800%!) increase in membership in a year. They now have nearly 2,000 members there. That's a doubling of membership in less than two months. That will definitely have an impact.

    The increase in Green membership of 800% is at best a myth . When I asked whether Bristol West constituency Green Party or the umbrella organisation Bristol Green Party would be filing accounts for year 2014 , the answer was that income was below the level that necessitated filing accounts
    How do you you think you've proved that the membership figures are a myth?
    It is not for me to prove anything , you are the one quoting figures and %s and not providing evidence to back them up .
  • Options
    justin124 said:


    I have just been looking at what the polls were saying 10 weeks prior to the last three general elections

    End of Feb 2010 Con +6 Outcome Con +7.3

    End of Feb 2005 Lab +6 -7 Outcome Lab +3

    End of March 2001 Lab +15 Outcome Lab +9

    In each case, therefore, the final 10 weeks saw a swing to the Opposition.

    You mean in each case the polls underestimated the Tories with 10 weeks to go?
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,761
    Talking of the Co-op bank, they converted my Labour Party credit card into a normal Co-op bank credit card a few month back, so Labour no longer gets a percentage of everything I spend. I don't know how much this used to bring in overall, but it is lost income for the party.
  • Options
    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Talking of the Co-op bank, they converted my Labour Party credit card into a normal Co-op bank credit card a few month back, so Labour no longer gets a percentage of everything I spend. I don't know how much this used to bring in overall, but it is lost income for the party.

    Hasnt the Labour party had to transfer its overall banking facility (and thereby undertake an exercise of transferring members' direct debits over to its new account)?

  • Options

    Talking of the Co-op bank, they converted my Labour Party credit card into a normal Co-op bank credit card a few month back, so Labour no longer gets a percentage of everything I spend. I don't know how much this used to bring in overall, but it is lost income for the party.

    Get thee an Amnesty International Credit Card from the Co-op.

    I have.

    Do some good.
  • Options
    Asim Qureshi just lied at the press conference...said he has never seen the videos...

    “There was an extremely strong resemblance,” Asim Qureshi, research director at the rights group, CAGE, said when shown one of the videos and asked to confirm whether Emwazi could be “Jihadi John.”

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/jihadi-john-the-islamic-state-killer-behind-the-mask-is-a-young-londoner/2015/02/25/d6dbab16-bc43-11e4-bdfa-b8e8f594e6ee_story.html
  • Options
    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Neil said:

    Neil said:

    re Greens chances in Bristol - what will definitely help is the 800% (yes, 800%!) increase in membership in a year. They now have nearly 2,000 members there. That's a doubling of membership in less than two months. That will definitely have an impact.

    The increase in Green membership of 800% is at best a myth . When I asked whether Bristol West constituency Green Party or the umbrella organisation Bristol Green Party would be filing accounts for year 2014 , the answer was that income was below the level that necessitated filing accounts
    How do you you think you've proved that the membership figures are a myth?
    It is not for me to prove anything , you are the one quoting figures and %s and not providing evidence to back them up .
    Oh, right. So your point was basically pointless.

    Well, the national figures will, of course, be published. Within the context of national membership of 60,000+ I believe the Bristol figures are quite plausible. That and the person I heard the Bristol figures from is (1) in a position to know and (2) has no reason to make them up (I'm not mentioning the numbers to sustain my own delusion about our chances in Bristol West, I mention them because they are relevant to those betting on the constituency). You, on the other hand, do have a track record of letting your antipathy to the Greens interfere with your betting positions (*cough* 8/1 *cough*).

  • Options
    Neil said:

    Neil said:

    Neil said:

    re Greens chances in Bristol - what will definitely help is the 800% (yes, 800%!) increase in membership in a year. They now have nearly 2,000 members there. That's a doubling of membership in less than two months. That will definitely have an impact.

    The increase in Green membership of 800% is at best a myth . When I asked whether Bristol West constituency Green Party or the umbrella organisation Bristol Green Party would be filing accounts for year 2014 , the answer was that income was below the level that necessitated filing accounts
    How do you you think you've proved that the membership figures are a myth?
    It is not for me to prove anything , you are the one quoting figures and %s and not providing evidence to back them up .
    Oh, right. So your point was basically pointless.

    Well, the national figures will, of course, be published. Within the context of national membership of 60,000+ I believe the Bristol figures are quite plausible. That and the person I heard the Bristol figures from is (1) in a position to know and (2) has no reason to make them up (I'm not mentioning the numbers to sustain my own delusion about our chances in Bristol West, I mention them because they are relevant to those betting on the constituency). You, on the other hand, do have a track record of letting your antipathy to the Greens interfere with your betting positions (*cough* 8/1 *cough*).

    And you're someone naturally pessimistic about the Greens.

    *cough* 20/1 *cough*
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Re Bristol West - the Metrobus scheme seems to have divided Green thinkers.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-31611672

    Protesters have been staying up trees for the last couple of weeks, though @Garethofthevale pointed out that this was happening over the border in Bristol East.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Neil said:

    Neil said:

    Neil said:

    re Greens chances in Bristol - what will definitely help is the 800% (yes, 800%!) increase in membership in a year. They now have nearly 2,000 members there. That's a doubling of membership in less than two months. That will definitely have an impact.

    The increase in Green membership of 800% is at best a myth . When I asked whether Bristol West constituency Green Party or the umbrella organisation Bristol Green Party would be filing accounts for year 2014 , the answer was that income was below the level that necessitated filing accounts
    How do you you think you've proved that the membership figures are a myth?
    It is not for me to prove anything , you are the one quoting figures and %s and not providing evidence to back them up .
    Oh, right. So your point was basically pointless.

    Well, the national figures will, of course, be published. Within the context of national membership of 60,000+ I believe the Bristol figures are quite plausible. That and the person I heard the Bristol figures from is (1) in a position to know and (2) has no reason to make them up (I'm not mentioning the numbers to sustain my own delusion about our chances in Bristol West, I mention them because they are relevant to those betting on the constituency). You, on the other hand, do have a track record of letting your antipathy to the Greens interfere with your betting positions (*cough* 8/1 *cough*).

    Yes the national membership figures will be published in due course in around July 2016 so we have a long wait to see whether they are true or not . As I recommended to fellow pbers and did bet on Lucas winning Pavilion in 2010 my so called track record is a figment of your imagination .
  • Options
    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    As I recommended to fellow pbers and did bet on Lucas winning Pavilion in 2010 my so called track record is a figment of your imagination .

    Our bet on Caroline Lucas retaining her seat at odds of 8/1 is definitely not a figment of my imagination. Winning that bet wouldnt mean you hadnt let your antipathy to the Greens interfere with your betting positions.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,242

    Talking of the Co-op bank, they converted my Labour Party credit card into a normal Co-op bank credit card a few month back, so Labour no longer gets a percentage of everything I spend. I don't know how much this used to bring in overall, but it is lost income for the party.

    Get thee an Amnesty International Credit Card from the Co-op.

    I have.

    Do some good.
    Amnesty supported CagedPrisoners. The very opposite of doing good.

  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:


    I have just been looking at what the polls were saying 10 weeks prior to the last three general elections

    End of Feb 2010 Con +6 Outcome Con +7.3

    End of Feb 2005 Lab +6 -7 Outcome Lab +3

    End of March 2001 Lab +15 Outcome Lab +9

    In each case, therefore, the final 10 weeks saw a swing to the Opposition.

    You mean in each case the polls underestimated the Tories with 10 weeks to go?
    Not quite. In 2010 support for both main parties fell - but Labour a bit more.
  • Options
    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Cyclefree said:

    Talking of the Co-op bank, they converted my Labour Party credit card into a normal Co-op bank credit card a few month back, so Labour no longer gets a percentage of everything I spend. I don't know how much this used to bring in overall, but it is lost income for the party.

    Get thee an Amnesty International Credit Card from the Co-op.

    I have.

    Do some good.
    Amnesty supported CagedPrisoners. The very opposite of doing good.

    Dont potential terrorists deserve rights too?

  • Options
    The evidence shows that Cage is a pro-terrorist group

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/10981050/The-evidence-shows-that-Cage-is-a-pro-terrorist-group.html

    Why are we giving them a platform on the national media?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    edited February 2015
    Lord Carlile QC, the Government’s former independent reviewer of anti-terrorism legislation, said: “I would never advise anybody to give money to CagePrisoners. I have concerns about the group.

    "There are civil liberty organisations which I do give money to but CagePrisoners is most certainly not one of them.”

    Robin Simcox, a research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, a foreign policy think tank, said: “I cannot understand why human rights groups are aligned with CagePrisoners.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/terrorism-in-the-uk/10670120/Mainstream-charities-have-donated-thousands-to-Islamic-group-fronted-by-terror-suspect.html

    Even a senior person within Amnesty told their own organisation that CagePrisoners was a “jihadi” organisation.
  • Options
    Cyclefree said:

    Talking of the Co-op bank, they converted my Labour Party credit card into a normal Co-op bank credit card a few month back, so Labour no longer gets a percentage of everything I spend. I don't know how much this used to bring in overall, but it is lost income for the party.

    Get thee an Amnesty International Credit Card from the Co-op.

    I have.

    Do some good.
    Amnesty supported CagedPrisoners. The very opposite of doing good.

    Everyone deserves human rights to be upheld.

    Even those accused of terrorism
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Greens have c. 1000 members in Bristol - figures are for the whole City.

    http://www.bristolgreenparty.org.uk/news/bristol-greens-reach-1000-members
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,645
    Anorak said:

    1) Australia has by far the largest uranium reserves in the world, with only 10% of proven reserves extracted to date. Russia and Qatar have the largest gas reserves. Who would you rather deal with? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_uranium_reserves

    2) We are nowhere near peak uranium, especially as large users like Japan and Germany move away from the technology. That's just plain wrong.

    3) Even if you're right (and you're not) then the cost of the fuel is a rounding error in the cost of nuclear power, but 80% of the cost of operating a gas turbine. Price fluctuations don't matter to nuclear.

    4) Our onshore gas reserves would be environmentally damaging to extract and - under your bonkers scenario of switching all new generating capacity to gas - exhausted in no time.

    5) Waste from new gen power stations is an order of magnitude less, and easier to deal with than from older stations. It's a pathetic NIMBY issue driven by ignorant fools.

    Australian reserves are in national park and reserve areas where the government are reluctant to mine, they may as well not exist. We would be dealing with the likes of Kazakhstan and Russia for Uranium.

    The same Japan which is about to turn its reactors back on? Germany is not a big nuclear nation.

    Well of course they don't, that's why there is a guaranteed strike price and a £30bn implied subsidy which is why it is a waste of money.

    4/5. On the one hand you dismiss green/environmental/nimby concerns with nuclear waste and then go straight to nimbyism with fracking. Also, we are not buying new reactor types, we are buying the same bloody PWRs as we already have. The new reactor types which produce less waste and take used waste as fuel are not what we are buying from the French, that reactor type is what I think we should be investing in and using gas as a stopgap while we figure out the technicalities.
  • Options
    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    dr_spyn said:

    Greens have c. 1000 members in Bristol - figures are for the whole City.

    http://www.bristolgreenparty.org.uk/news/bristol-greens-reach-1000-members

    That was in early January. Number have approximately doubled since then.

  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,021
    Neil said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Talking of the Co-op bank, they converted my Labour Party credit card into a normal Co-op bank credit card a few month back, so Labour no longer gets a percentage of everything I spend. I don't know how much this used to bring in overall, but it is lost income for the party.

    Get thee an Amnesty International Credit Card from the Co-op.

    I have.

    Do some good.
    Amnesty supported CagedPrisoners. The very opposite of doing good.

    Dont potential terrorists deserve rights too?

    I would have hoped there was a more palatable charity they could have supported. Liberty, for instance.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,242
    Neil said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Talking of the Co-op bank, they converted my Labour Party credit card into a normal Co-op bank credit card a few month back, so Labour no longer gets a percentage of everything I spend. I don't know how much this used to bring in overall, but it is lost income for the party.

    Get thee an Amnesty International Credit Card from the Co-op.

    I have.

    Do some good.
    Amnesty supported CagedPrisoners. The very opposite of doing good.

    Dont potential terrorists deserve rights too?

    They weren't simply saying that he had the same rights under the law as anyone else - a statement with which I could not argue. They were promoting an organisation which has values very different and hostile to the ones they claim to be standing for. Amnesty cloaked this organisation with their own reputation and thereby undermined it.

    It led to Gita Sahgal, the head of AI's gender unit, to resign and blow the whistle. In doing so she stated that AI's service to Cage Prisoners was both prone and supine, it "fundamentally damages Amnesty International’s integrity and, more importantly, constitutes a threat to human rights.” Amnesty's conduct was driven by a cowardly fear of being labeled Islamophobic. As she said: “To be appearing on platforms with Britain’s most famous supporter of the Taliban, whom we treat as a human rights defender, is a gross error of judgment.”


  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,154
    MaxPB said:

    Anorak said:

    1) Australia has by far the largest uranium reserves in the world, with only 10% of proven reserves extracted to date. Russia and Qatar have the largest gas reserves. Who would you rather deal with? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_uranium_reserves

    2) We are nowhere near peak uranium, especially as large users like Japan and Germany move away from the technology. That's just plain wrong.

    3) Even if you're right (and you're not) then the cost of the fuel is a rounding error in the cost of nuclear power, but 80% of the cost of operating a gas turbine. Price fluctuations don't matter to nuclear.

    4) Our onshore gas reserves would be environmentally damaging to extract and - under your bonkers scenario of switching all new generating capacity to gas - exhausted in no time.

    5) Waste from new gen power stations is an order of magnitude less, and easier to deal with than from older stations. It's a pathetic NIMBY issue driven by ignorant fools.

    Australian reserves are in national park and reserve areas where the government are reluctant to mine, they may as well not exist. We would be dealing with the likes of Kazakhstan and Russia for Uranium.

    The same Japan which is about to turn its reactors back on? Germany is not a big nuclear nation.

    Well of course they don't, that's why there is a guaranteed strike price and a £30bn implied subsidy which is why it is a waste of money.

    4/5. On the one hand you dismiss green/environmental/nimby concerns with nuclear waste and then go straight to nimbyism with fracking. Also, we are not buying new reactor types, we are buying the same bloody PWRs as we already have. The new reactor types which produce less waste and take used waste as fuel are not what we are buying from the French, that reactor type is what I think we should be investing in and using gas as a stopgap while we figure out the technicalities.
    "... and using gas as a stopgap while we figure out the technicalities."

    It is perfectly possible that the 'technicalities' cannot be worked out in such a way as to make them any better (i.e. cost-effective, reliable and safe) then existing technologies. They've spent years trying already.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,242

    Cyclefree said:

    Talking of the Co-op bank, they converted my Labour Party credit card into a normal Co-op bank credit card a few month back, so Labour no longer gets a percentage of everything I spend. I don't know how much this used to bring in overall, but it is lost income for the party.

    Get thee an Amnesty International Credit Card from the Co-op.

    I have.

    Do some good.
    Amnesty supported CagedPrisoners. The very opposite of doing good.

    Everyone deserves human rights to be upheld.

    Even those accused of terrorism


    See my answer to Neil. Amnesty went way beyond what is needed to uphold a person's legal rights. They promoted an organization which is a front for terrorists.
  • Options
    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,352
    Neil,

    "That was in early January. Number have approximately doubled since then."

    Are there enough trees?
  • Options
    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Cyclefree said:

    They promoted an organization which is a front for terrorists.

    If it is really a front for terrorists then surely it should be proscribed.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,242
    Christopher Hitchens on how Amnesty betrayed its founding principles over Begg and Cage Prisoners - http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/fighting_words/2010/02/suspension_of_conscience.html
  • Options
    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,352
    Neil,

    I did feel some sympathy for Natalie Bennett but I thought Jenny Jones did her no favours at the press conference. Anyone can have a bad day, but Jones' attitude was "Leave the idiot alone, she's not up to it."
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,028
    Playing especially for Mohammed Emwazi and the boys at cage

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2FFixxQx9H4
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    To be fair to @Neil there is some stuff on Facebook about a 2K membership Party in two days time - though there is nothing else backing that figure up - perhaps there might be a press release this weekend.
  • Options
    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    CD13 said:

    Neil,

    I did feel some sympathy for Natalie Bennett but I thought Jenny Jones did her no favours at the press conference. Anyone can have a bad day, but Jones' attitude was "Leave the idiot alone, she's not up to it."

    That may be how it came across but I really dont think that was the case. That was actually her attempting to be supportive (I dont think her performance as a party "grandee" later that day on Newsnight was that far ahead of Natalie's on the radio earlier!).
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,242
    Neil said:

    Cyclefree said:

    They promoted an organization which is a front for terrorists.

    If it is really a front for terrorists then surely it should be proscribed.
    We have a government which promised - or at least Cameron did - to proscribe Hizb-ut-Tahir but has done nothing. Our political class simply lack the moral courage to call these people out for what they are are and to take the steps necessary to deal with them.

  • Options
    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    dr_spyn said:

    To be fair to @Neil there is some stuff on Facebook about a 2K membership Party in two days time - though there is nothing else backing that figure up - perhaps there might be a press release this weekend.

    I'm not making it up! Why on earth would I bother making something like that up and posting it here? I'm not trying to lay the Greens in Bristol West!

  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Police bodyguards for Farage.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31634837
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    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    At a recent hustings in Thanet South the audience was asked their voting intentions as they entered the hall, the tories were on 51%, after the meeting they'd dropped to 31%
  • Options
    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Cyclefree said:

    Neil said:

    Cyclefree said:

    They promoted an organization which is a front for terrorists.

    If it is really a front for terrorists then surely it should be proscribed.
    We have a government which promised - or at least Cameron did - to proscribe Hizb-ut-Tahir but has done nothing. Our political class simply lack the moral courage to call these people out for what they are are and to take the steps necessary to deal with them.

    Or maybe there is no proof of any illegality on its part?

  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,645

    MaxPB said:

    Anorak said:

    1) Australia has by far the largest uranium reserves in the world, with only 10% of proven reserves extracted to date. Russia and Qatar have the largest gas reserves. Who would you rather deal with? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_uranium_reserves

    2) We are nowhere near peak uranium, especially as large users like Japan and Germany move away from the technology. That's just plain wrong.

    3) Even if you're right (and you're not) then the cost of the fuel is a rounding error in the cost of nuclear power, but 80% of the cost of operating a gas turbine. Price fluctuations don't matter to nuclear.

    4) Our onshore gas reserves would be environmentally damaging to extract and - under your bonkers scenario of switching all new generating capacity to gas - exhausted in no time.

    5) Waste from new gen power stations is an order of magnitude less, and easier to deal with than from older stations. It's a pathetic NIMBY issue driven by ignorant fools.

    Australian reserves are in national park and reserve areas where the government are reluctant to mine, they may as well not exist. We would be dealing with the likes of Kazakhstan and Russia for Uranium.

    The same Japan which is about to turn its reactors back on? Germany is not a big nuclear nation.

    Well of course they don't, that's why there is a guaranteed strike price and a £30bn implied subsidy which is why it is a waste of money.

    4/5. On the one hand you dismiss green/environmental/nimby concerns with nuclear waste and then go straight to nimbyism with fracking. Also, we are not buying new reactor types, we are buying the same bloody PWRs as we already have. The new reactor types which produce less waste and take used waste as fuel are not what we are buying from the French, that reactor type is what I think we should be investing in and using gas as a stopgap while we figure out the technicalities.
    "... and using gas as a stopgap while we figure out the technicalities."

    It is perfectly possible that the 'technicalities' cannot be worked out in such a way as to make them any better (i.e. cost-effective, reliable and safe) then existing technologies. They've spent years trying already.
    Very little money has gone into trying to get thorium reactors right, the basic concept from ORNL is still sound today, if it wasn't for the weapons programme the money would have gone into it from the start, but since it doesn't produce plutonium like PHWRs the world decided not to invest despite its inherent advantages. If the PWR could be perfected in the 60s then the MSR can be perfected today.

    If it doesn't work then the AP1000 would still be available to purchase off the shelf in 10 years. It wouldn't be the end of the world and it would probably be cheaper.
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Neil said:

    dr_spyn said:

    To be fair to @Neil there is some stuff on Facebook about a 2K membership Party in two days time - though there is nothing else backing that figure up - perhaps there might be a press release this weekend.

    I'm not making it up! Why on earth would I bother making something like that up and posting it here? I'm not trying to lay the Greens in Bristol West!

    I didn't say you were making it up, the figures on their Facebook page appear to be the only source.

    There is nothing on The Bristol Green Party webpages yet.
  • Options
    Cyclefree said:

    Neil said:

    Cyclefree said:

    They promoted an organization which is a front for terrorists.

    If it is really a front for terrorists then surely it should be proscribed.
    We have a government which promised - or at least Cameron did - to proscribe Hizb-ut-Tahir but has done nothing. Our political class simply lack the moral courage to call these people out for what they are are and to take the steps necessary to deal with them.

    Our universities are not doing much either nor some sections of the media....Compare and contract, the mega mainstream outrage of Dappy Laughs uni appearances with Dr Al-Haddad, who was down to talk at the University of Westminster tonight.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,028
    Cerie Bullivant nick a treacle on Friday night?
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    dr_spyn said:
    Next, they'll request an RAF pilot for his Election Day Banner fly by.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,242
    Neil said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Neil said:

    Cyclefree said:

    They promoted an organization which is a front for terrorists.

    If it is really a front for terrorists then surely it should be proscribed.
    We have a government which promised - or at least Cameron did - to proscribe Hizb-ut-Tahir but has done nothing. Our political class simply lack the moral courage to call these people out for what they are are and to take the steps necessary to deal with them.

    Or maybe there is no proof of any illegality on its part?

    That was the argument used for not taking action against Abu Hamza until we were embarrassed by the US authorities into taking action instead of providing him the freedom to carry on his harmful activities.

    There is quite a lot of information around about such organisations, what they do etc. The problem is not the lack of information. It is politicians and others sitting there with their fingers in their ears shouting "la la we can't hear you".

    The Quilliam Foundation and the Lib Dem candidate for my own constituency are very good on this and, frankly, rather frustrated at the way the authorities find every possible excuse not to take action against people and groups who are a very real threat to us.

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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,154
    MaxPB said:



    Very little money has gone into trying to get thorium reactors right, the basic concept from ORNL is still sound today, if it wasn't for the weapons programme the money would have gone into it from the start, but since it doesn't produce plutonium like PHWRs the world decided not to invest despite its inherent advantages. If the PWR could be perfected in the 60s then the MSR can be perfected today.

    If it doesn't work then the AP1000 would still be available to purchase off the shelf in 10 years. It wouldn't be the end of the world and it would probably be cheaper.

    Your over-confidence about the technology is rather startling given its history.

    "If the PWR could be perfected in the 60s then the MSR can be perfected today."

    Urrrm, that's like saying: "If we got to the moon in the 1960s, we should have FTL travel now."

    MSR reactors *may* be the way forward. But we shouldn't bet the house on it, in eitehr the short or long term.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Cyclefree said:

    Neil said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Neil said:

    Cyclefree said:

    They promoted an organization which is a front for terrorists.

    If it is really a front for terrorists then surely it should be proscribed.
    We have a government which promised - or at least Cameron did - to proscribe Hizb-ut-Tahir but has done nothing. Our political class simply lack the moral courage to call these people out for what they are are and to take the steps necessary to deal with them.

    Or maybe there is no proof of any illegality on its part?

    That was the argument used for not taking action against Abu Hamza until we were embarrassed by the US authorities into taking action instead of providing him the freedom to carry on his harmful activities.

    There is quite a lot of information around about such organisations, what they do etc. The problem is not the lack of information. It is politicians and others sitting there with their fingers in their ears shouting "la la we can't hear you".

    The Quilliam Foundation and the Lib Dem candidate for my own constituency are very good on this and, frankly, rather frustrated at the way the authorities find every possible excuse not to take action against people and groups who are a very real threat to us.

    Do you really think that lack of proof of any illegality on its part is a bad reason not to take action against it?
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    Models are good servants and bad masters.

    All models are struggling to assess just how localised UKIP's support is. This is a case in point.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    At a recent hustings in Thanet South the audience was asked their voting intentions as they entered the hall, the tories were on 51%, after the meeting they'd dropped to 31%

    Sounds scientific..like Nats getting on the Yougov panel.
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    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    antifrank said:

    Models are good servants and bad masters.

    All models are struggling to assess just how localised UKIP's support is. This is a case in point.

    I've been saying this for weeks, national polls re ukip and the libs are totally irrelevant. The libs are on 7% but will get 30+ seats, the greens are on 7% but will get zero. Ukip are roughly 15% and could get between 2 and 20.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,242
    Neil said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Neil said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Neil said:

    Cyclefree said:

    They promoted an organization which is a front for terrorists.

    If it is really a front for terrorists then surely it should be proscribed.
    We have a government which promised - or at least Cameron did - to proscribe Hizb-ut-Tahir but has done nothing. Our political class simply lack the moral courage to call these people out for what they are are and to take the steps necessary to deal with them.

    Or maybe there is no proof of any illegality on its part?

    That was the argument used for not taking action against Abu Hamza until we were embarrassed by the US authorities into taking action instead of providing him the freedom to carry on his harmful activities.

    There is quite a lot of information around about such organisations, what they do etc. The problem is not the lack of information. It is politicians and others sitting there with their fingers in their ears shouting "la la we can't hear you".

    The Quilliam Foundation and the Lib Dem candidate for my own constituency are very good on this and, frankly, rather frustrated at the way the authorities find every possible excuse not to take action against people and groups who are a very real threat to us.

    Do you really think that lack of proof of any illegality on its part is a bad reason not to take action against it?
    You're assuming a lack of proof. From what I've read there is quite a lot of proof that these organisations are rather more sinister than they are claiming. It would be good if the authorities did not bury their heads in the sands about them.

    It would be even better if organisations such as Amnesty stopped promoting those who promote and support violence.

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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    antifrank said:

    Models are good servants and bad masters.

    Hear, hear.
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    antifrank said:

    Models are good servants and bad masters.

    All models are struggling to assess just how localised UKIP's support is. This is a case in point.

    Or those Hornby models or Airfix models?

    :)
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,645

    MaxPB said:



    Very little money has gone into trying to get thorium reactors right, the basic concept from ORNL is still sound today, if it wasn't for the weapons programme the money would have gone into it from the start, but since it doesn't produce plutonium like PHWRs the world decided not to invest despite its inherent advantages. If the PWR could be perfected in the 60s then the MSR can be perfected today.

    If it doesn't work then the AP1000 would still be available to purchase off the shelf in 10 years. It wouldn't be the end of the world and it would probably be cheaper.

    Your over-confidence about the technology is rather startling given its history.

    "If the PWR could be perfected in the 60s then the MSR can be perfected today."

    Urrrm, that's like saying: "If we got to the moon in the 1960s, we should have FTL travel now."

    MSR reactors *may* be the way forward. But we shouldn't bet the house on it, in eitehr the short or long term.
    Bullshit, those two scenarios are nothing alike. The PWR was seen as the more complicated form of power generation but money poured into it from the nuclear weapons programme in the US which made it viable. The basic design of the MSR is sound and has been sound since it was first invented. Perfecting the MSR design would be easier than making the PWR work was back then, but governments are all risk averse and short termist so no money goes into it when we can make do with substandard AP1000s and EPRs which still produce too much waste and are still basically unsafe, it's like a "tame" tiger. It is still a dangerous technology as we saw in Japan. The MSR is inherently safer than the PWR.

    Make do and mend is not enough for future energy supplies, we need an energy revolution. The PWR is last century's technology and it shows. Boilers with cracks, leaking pipes is it any wonder that no insurance company will go near them? Britain as a country needs to invest in future technology and that is the MSR in the medium term and laser based fusion in the long term. Instead we are wasting £17bn buying an outdated reactor design from Areva (French state owned company) and EDF (French state owned company) and pissing away billions with ITER. Our energy policy is a complete and utter joke. We have homegrown expertise in nuclear pursuits and yet we are about to waste billions on importing schlock from France. Complete ad utter joke.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited February 2015

    Smarmeron said:

    Beeb live blog
    "There's been a new development in the Swiss tax scandal. Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) whose results you'll remember were published this morning and which remains 80% taxpayer owned, has said German prosecutors are looking at whether its private bank in Switzerland helped some clients evade tax."

    Shall we file that under "no one seen that coming"?

    I wonder if Fred Goodwin knew? Possibly, since it's a division of Coutts, bought in 2003, that's in trouble.
    In the context of the (unsolicited and competitive) NatWest deal they didn't have the chance to do much diligence. Coutts Intl was a pimple on the buttocks of the old lady.

    It would never have happened under David Robarts. Grumpf. Great man, sadly missed (My Dad's first proper job was as his EA)

    http://heritagearchives.rbs.com/people/list/david-robarts.html
This discussion has been closed.