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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A leading academic forecasting model gives Farage just a 2%
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A leading academic forecasting model gives Farage just a 2% chance in South Thanet – Betfair punters have it at 60%
It was Tim Montgomerie in today’s Times who alerted me to the forecast for Farage’s South Thanet that has been produced by the 2015 UK Parliamentary Election Forecast – a collaberation between dons at UEA, LSE and Durham. For anyone betting on single seats their site is a gem with percentage probabilities for each party in every single seat.
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Today's immigration numbers and comres polling can't do Ukip any harm though and the party rep, Steven woolfe, on daily politics was excellent (Tories wouldn't send anyone and were empty chaired)
Or as some might call it, the Carswell "that bloody Tory" Party. I suspect that is not the party of - how to put this - many of UKIP's less enlightened voters.
Catrin Nye (@CatrinNye)
26/02/2015 12:57
'Jihadi John' was 'Radicalised by Britain' - press release from @UK_CAGE on contact with
Mohammed Emwazi ow.ly/3xfiP4
Mohammed Emwazi was in regular contact with Cage Prisoners, whose director is Moazzam Begg...who despite having attended terrorist training camps is a darling of some part of the media, of course had charges of providing terrorist training and funding terrorism in Syria DROPPED. Some might say it is a very small world.
Edit - or do they mean that by forecasting a win for Carswell (which seems to be all they are saying) that this represents an "almost certain seat gain"?
They have the Greens winning Bristol West. A brave prediction but it is by far the most likely Green gain. And they apparently have 1,000 new members in Bristol since the start of the year alone. That implies a huge level of foot soldiers on the ground to counteract the "wasted voted" issue that will be the biggest problem there.
'Mohammed Emwazi is a British citizen who was subjected to security agency harassment for at least four years.
He was repeatedly detained at airports, deported, barred from entering countries and even allegedly assaulted by officers. This treatment prevented him from leading a normal life while having no means to obtain redress, even though no evidence was ever presented to suggest he committed any wrongdoing.
A Washington Post investigation recently alleged he was the British IS member known as “Jihadi John”.'
http://www.cageuk.org/case/mohammed-emwazi
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-22721536
The Islamic Safari Company must have been doing roaring business in trips to Kenya back in the mid to late 2000's.
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/tdoeatmyoy/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-170215.pdf
UKIP want to change HMG's open door immigration policy. The only way to do that is to leave the EU.
For the Greens, they have Bristol West as a 50% chance, central forecast Green 30%, Lab 28%, LD 23%
Might be complete bollocks, of course!
"Already at a disadvantage for admitting he is not a woman, Blau dug an even deeper grave for himself by naming Nick Clegg as the politician he finds the ‘most convincing’. This is the same leader of the Liberal Democrat party who ‘betrayed’ the paper’s student readership over tuition fees.
Sensing the murmurs of discontent across the room after his admission, Blau tried to win favour by moving on to his second favourite politician. ‘I also think quite highly of Natalie Bennett,’ he said, seemingly oblivious to the damage her car crash interview on Green party policy had done the day before"
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/steerpike/2015/02/guardian-hustings-a-good-day-for-external-candidates/
Sounds like he is about as good at this as his second favourite politician.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22129562.400-lasersparked-fusion-power-passes-key-milestone.html#.VO8i89ztmko
On a tiny, tiny budget as well. Laser fusion is the future of energy. Tokomaks are big and expensive.
As I said, this government needs to invest in the correct technology, not in what has "international consensus". It is not about being popular. Pulling out of ITER may not be a popular move, especially within European circles, but it would be the right move in the long term because Tokomaks just don't work, JET couldn't do it and ITER has basically got the same design.
Molten Salt Reactors are untried on any large scale. The idea that we invest in them and *might* get food, reliable and cheap reactors in ten to twelve years is exceptionally optimistic. The Fuji reactor is expected to take twenty years for a piddling 100-200MW plant.
You are also slightly disingenuous about the US laser fusion project, which has massive technical hurdles to overcome - not least how to harness any net-positive energy generated, and how to generate it fast enough (1). It is also way behind schedule and, I believe, over budget. That is despite it mainly being for (whisper it quietly) weapons development, with energy being a secondary concern.
That is not to say we invest in researching these technologies; just that when compared to the need for energy, and the known characteristics of current reactor designs, they're not the immediate way forward.
You call it 'old' nuclear power. In fact it is the 'only' nuclear power that is currently available in a form proven for widespread generation.
(1): http://fire.pppl.gov/NIF_NIC_report_rev5_koonin_2012.pdf
Much better than flying over the constituency in a light plane.
Bradford East
Brent Central
Chippenham
Manchester, Withington
Norwich South
Redcar
Somerton and Frome
Burnley North West
Argyll and Bute
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey
Solihull
East Dunbartonshire
95-98%
Wells
North East Fife
Edinburgh West
Cardiff Central Wales
Mid Dorset and North Poole
Gordon
Selected others:
Ross Skye Lochaber 92%
Portsmouth South 81%
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk 78%
Leeds North West 76%
Orkney & Shetland 55%
Nigel Farage Is Avoiding The Media In His Bid To Get Into Parliament
http://www.buzzfeed.com/emilyashton/nigel-farage-takes-on-kent
That said he is in the US just now but will be back for the Annual Conference in Thanet at the weekend
Well Solihull is definitely wrong, which rather undermines their credibility generally.
I'm not saying the Yellow Peril are certain to hang on to this seat, but it's not a 99/1 shot.
https://firstlook.org/theintercept/2015/02/25/isis-material-support-plot-involved-confidential-informant/
Gas may be currently cheaper but historically has been much, much higher. It will be again. The price of nuclear is only very, very weakly related to the cost of (plentiful) uranium.
How confident are you that UKIP will really do so poorly at converting votes into seats?
Not as confident as the model says we are, for many of the reasons noted above. UKIP performance is uncertain in a way that is very difficult to model. Because UKIP has such a limited record in parliamentary elections, it is difficult to predict where they will perform well. Moreover, we just have no idea from recent UK history how well a party like UKIP can be expected to do in the general election compared to, for example, the EP election in 2014. The fact that our estimates put weight on both lagged vote from 2010 and current polling means that the model is skeptical about UKIPs poll numbers, and will remain so until shortly before the election. If UKIP support holds at its current levels through election day and polling begins to indicate that UKIP support is concentrated in certain constituencies rather than inefficiently spread across most constituencies, the forecast may begin to indicate seat gains.
http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/#addingup
Anyone got a coin? Head or tails?
The way we infer these broader patterns is by modelling how individual respondents' voting intention varies as a function of the characteristics of their constituency. By constituency characteristics, we mean things like past vote and incumbent party, as well as population density, region, average age, distribution of religious affiliation and many other characteristics made available by the 2011 UK Census. We use a multilevel model that we designed specifically for this project in order to estimate how these characteristics correlate with polling responses. The more strongly these characteristics are related to individuals' vote choice, the more confident we can be in estimating constituency vote shares, even for constituencies where we only have a few observations in the raw data. For the purposes of prediction, we don't need these characteristics to cause people to vote in any particular way: correlation is enough.
Additionally we have no domestic Uranium mines, we do, however, have domestic gas reserves on shore.
This idea that nuclear power is the solution is fraught with issues, that's without taking waste disposal expenses into account.
However, the model does not know whether your MP is beloved by constituents or embroiled in scandal, nor does it know whether Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage is standing in your constituency, let alone what the implications of that might be.
http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/#addingup
In fact the site sums up the value of the seat level forecast like this:
Think of our seat-level projections as a baseline for what you might expect from past election results, geography and demography, plus a little bit of polling data.
http://www.freshbusinessthinking.com/news.php?NID=25212&Title=Ladbrokes+to+close+60+stores#.VO8sxy4wM5t
We were in Tim Farrons constituency,where he is absolutely certain to be re-elected.
We are strictly a Fellrunning club,so we took her over a few gentle trails. I never discuss politics with my club mates,but the mention of UKIP brought universal condemnation from all of us,younger members being the most anti.
4 of us ran,and in the interview session I was surprised at the range of opinions from my fellow club mates.
Anyway the 2 hours of filming will probably end up as 2 minutes on newsnight, I will wait and see the outcome.
Not just Ladbrokes, almost all the chains on the high street are doing restructuring and rationalization due to the move to digital purchases.
Now I actually think that a gain in Bristol West is indeed far more likely than anywhere else but this is because I know it's the party's 2nd priority seat nationally and I know that resources are being pumped into it. I cant imagine the model allows for that? But, hey, who am I to argue? A win in Bristol West would be an amazing result that would put a smile on my face for many weeks.
I remember backing Silvianaco Conti at a seemingly good price that day !
However, I wonder if what this does point to is that Labour might be value?
I might actually spend a weekend in Bristol between now and the GE doing some door knocking. I will obviously let my fellow PB Tories know if the gossip on the ground points to any value
Still, if 50-1 is offer anywhere, I'll make my second ever political bet (the one with Isam was my first).
Certainly they don't seem to allow much room for sharp changes in the polling or a black swan. I think Nate Silver's model works much better here. Even though Obama looked likely to win re-election for quite some time, he was only given a 60% chance of winning until late in the campaign when it went up to about 80%. Silver was allowing for the fact the polling could be wrong or there could be an error in his model
Labour are 6-4 to back there, I reckon they are 4-1 at least to hold it.
There are some who never go near a supermarket or clothes shop these days either.
It is called the High-Beta reactor:
http://www.lockheedmartin.co.uk/us/products/compact-fusion.html
But some are sceptical:
http://www.technologyreview.com/news/531836/does-lockheed-martin-really-have-a-breakthrough-fusion-machine/
IMHO ITER is only useful for long-term research, especially into high-flux materials, at places like IFMIF:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Fusion_Materials_Irradiation_Facility
Will JackW, Mr Senior or Antifrank give me 50/1 for Boston? I know they're normally sensible erudite posters who have a better knowledge than me of betting, but where Ukip is concerned, they act like a Victorian lady with a mouse running up her leg.
If so, 7/2 looks massive.
http://www.rte.ie/sport/rugby/2015/0226/682977-video-ireland-0-0-england-1963/
"There's been a new development in the Swiss tax scandal. Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) whose results you'll remember were published this morning and which remains 80% taxpayer owned, has said German prosecutors are looking at whether its private bank in Switzerland helped some clients evade tax."
Shall we file that under "no one seen that coming"?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-31623105
Roll up roll up see the plastic whales...
I was canvassed in Manchester last week, I told them I was domiciled in another constituency, a Tory and I drive a one man global warming machine.
But they still were polite and explained that saving the environment was a priority and that voting Green would be perfect for someone like me.
"In its annual report earlier RBS said "a prosecuting authority in Germany is undertaking an investigation into Coutts & Co Ltd in Switzerland, and current and former employees, for alleged aiding and abetting of tax evasion by certain Coutts & Co Ltd clients". It adds the bank is "cooperating with the authority"."
I wonder if anyone interesting banked with them?
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/mehdi-hasan/2012/01/fred-goodwin-rbs-financial
Those were the good old days.
So all their clients are either very wealthy and or high earners.
It will be just her Madgeship getting invited for lunch with HMRC then?
We saw in 1992 a string of by election gains being reversed when the same candidates stood again.
"The have way overestimated the SNP in Scotland and underestimated the Lib Dems too, overwhelmingly so in the case of Bristol West."
Electionsforecast for the SNP is bang in line with Ladbrokes odds and SPIN.
& 2000 local members indicates an SNP like swing is well possible.
I've had a tenner at 7-2 anyway.