Incidentally anyone else think that Channel 4's piece of malevolence is the driver of the UKIP slide?
I suspect not. UKIP were always going to be a midterm phenomenon - a bit of a jolly and a heady indulgence when it didn't matter. But as the witching hour draws closer people will start to appreciate that UKIP are a luxury we can't afford. They'll be put into a skip with the Christmas empties.
God give me a bucket. Can't the Tories think up anything more original.......
If Survation is correct, its time to leave the country. Who are the idiots who say to pollsters they want the 2 Eds to turn the UK into Greece?
Bye
Happy to take the many multiples of tax I pay vs the average tax payer with me. Hows that help pay for Labour's stupid spending plans?
Babies who threaten to leave should just get on with it.
I seem to remember Andrew Lloyd Webber threatening to leave in 1997. Dont think he ever did.
What stupid spending plans Let me guess the NHS or welfare state?
The IFS by the way thinks the Tory tax cut promises makes them the biggest black hole party
Boy have you got a nasty surprise in wait, if (God forbid) Ed does become PM in a few weeks time, most especially if he's dependent on the whim of Ms Sturgeon to get anything through parliament. The grown-ups in Labour are in no doubt of the catastrophe ahead, of course, but I can't quite decide whether the rest really don't see the obvious, or are just whistling in the wind to keep their spirits up.
@coolagorna No, I saw it in the news, our stock market is at levels not seen since the dot com bust......but this time it hasn't been artificially pumped up! It is as sound as our house prices.
it is.....isn't it?
Ajusted for inflation, the stock market is half the value of 1999, and as a percentage of gdp, it's 60% down.
Incidentally anyone else think that Channel 4's piece of malevolence is the driver of the UKIP slide?
No.
They've just been out of the limelight for a bit. That will change and I would expect them to pick up again when it does.
But why the sudden drop now when they've been out of the limelight (intentionally) for at least a couple of months?
Well for one thing the drop isn't that dramatic, and I think 'a couple of months' is stretching it.
But sell them if you think the decline will continue. I'm not doing so, not yet, and if I'm wrong I'll pay for it, not for the first time.
Your missing the point. I'm trying to discern whether or not this is an event based drop in their share.. If it is chances are it will be countered with a bit of positive publicity as you suggest. if its not and is a general realignment then it might not.
@bigjohnowls Yay for humanity, and common sense. We will teach those Red scum what real British training and tactics can do. While the bastards are pissing their pants laughing, we will attack!
He was definitely massaging his own ego, but the way he said he was self-employed was frankly ridiculous. I do feel some pity for him though, what a poor way to end a reasonably distinguished career.
I wonder if he will be ennobled if he is cleared by the standards commissioner, you could imagine Cameron offering him this, if he resigned immediately.
I think this sort of thing sometimes happens to distinguished figures in safe seats - they've rarely faced any very awkward situations and aggressive questions, and they struggle to handle them sensibly. Someone like George Galloway, of whom I'm not a fan at all but who is used to rough weather, would have emerged in better shape, but Rifkind was simply overwhelmed.
.
But Rifkind held a marginal seat for 23 years - Edinburgh Pentlands!
@coolagorna No, I saw it in the news, our stock market is at levels not seen since the dot com bust......but this time it hasn't been artificially pumped up! It is as sound as our house prices.
it is.....isn't it?
Ajusted for inflation, the stock market is half the value of 1999, and as a percentage of gdp, it's 60% down.
Yes, the meme that the 'rich' (by which I think the Left mean ordinary pension funds) have grabbed all the goodies in the last 15 years is rather threadbare.
Incidentally anyone else think that Channel 4's piece of malevolence is the driver of the UKIP slide?
No.
They've just been out of the limelight for a bit. That will change and I would expect them to pick up again when it does.
But why the sudden drop now when they've been out of the limelight (intentionally) for at least a couple of months?
Well for one thing the drop isn't that dramatic, and I think 'a couple of months' is stretching it.
But sell them if you think the decline will continue. I'm not doing so, not yet, and if I'm wrong I'll pay for it, not for the first time.
UKIP heading for 8/9 % at the next GE an inexorable decline looms
Mark
In fairness, you ought to advise new visitors to the Site that you can only improve on your record as a General Election tipster.
My forecast in early 2010 for the 2010 GE on this site is a matter of record and was spot on in terms of No of Lib Dem seats ( exactly right and No Overall Majority whilst fools like you were betting on a .Conservative overall msjority
At least we won't have to worry about that with the two Ed's, just remember to switch the lights off.
That last line worked in 1992...Sadly for the Blues less and less people get a newspaper now....they are just not buying it..either the papers themselves or the ludicrous lies that they print
Ed, Nicola, Caroline and Leanne will begin to slowly turn the failed neo liberal 36 year disaster around in probably the finest Goverment since 1945..Feel the Rainbow.Taste the Rainbow
@rcs1000 Not even just a teensy weensy bit pumped up Robert? Or is it truly down to the increased efficiency of our factory workers, prostitutes and drug dealers? All hail Ozzie for engineering the oil price drop!
Incidentally anyone else think that Channel 4's piece of malevolence is the driver of the UKIP slide?
No.
They've just been out of the limelight for a bit. That will change and I would expect them to pick up again when it does.
But why the sudden drop now when they've been out of the limelight (intentionally) for at least a couple of months?
Well for one thing the drop isn't that dramatic, and I think 'a couple of months' is stretching it.
But sell them if you think the decline will continue. I'm not doing so, not yet, and if I'm wrong I'll pay for it, not for the first time.
Your missing the point. I'm trying to discern whether or not this is an event based drop in their share.. If it is chances are it will be countered with a bit of positive publicity as you suggest. if its not and is a general realignment then it might not.
Well if knew the answer to that one, Hengist, I'd be cleaning up on every available betting market rather than chatting here with you!
My assessment, based on years of political punting and trawling Sites like this, is that we will see an uptick in UKIP's poll ratings when they receive a bit more publicity, as they are likely to do nearer the GE date.
Naturally I can't advise both my loyal followers to lump on in view of this rather subjective assessment, but I nevertheless think it's a reasonable one.
Mirror Politics @MirrorPolitics 6m6 minutes ago British forces head to Ukraine as David Cameron turns up the heat on Putin
With the way the polls are going,it could be Miliband turning the heat up on Putin in 3/4 months time (snigger)
Miliband certainly had more courage than Cameron when it came to taking on Murdoch and Dacre and the vile practices of their media outlets. There's also an air of principle about him unlike mercantilist Dave.
@coolagorna No, I saw it in the news, our stock market is at levels not seen since the dot com bust......but this time it hasn't been artificially pumped up! It is as sound as our house prices.
it is.....isn't it?
Ajusted for inflation, the stock market is half the value of 1999, and as a percentage of gdp, it's 60% down.
Yes, the meme that the 'rich' (by which I think the Left mean ordinary pension funds) have grabbed all the goodies in the last 15 years is rather threadbare.
FTSE Directors pay miltiples have hardly increased compared to their employees!!
Incidentally anyone else think that Channel 4's piece of malevolence is the driver of the UKIP slide?
No.
They've just been out of the limelight for a bit. That will change and I would expect them to pick up again when it does.
But why the sudden drop now when they've been out of the limelight (intentionally) for at least a couple of months?
Well for one thing the drop isn't that dramatic, and I think 'a couple of months' is stretching it.
But sell them if you think the decline will continue. I'm not doing so, not yet, and if I'm wrong I'll pay for it, not for the first time.
UKIP heading for 8/9 % at the next GE an inexorable decline looms
Mark
In fairness, you ought to advise new visitors to the Site that you can only improve on your record as a General Election tipster.
My forecast in early 2010 for the 2010 GE on this site is a matter of record and was spot on in terms of No of Lib Dem seats ( exactly right and No Overall Majority whilst dools like you were betting on a .Conservative overall msjority
Lol!
Only teasing, Mark. We all know how accurate your forecasts are, especially when it come to projecting LibDem seat totals. ;-)
Mirror Politics @MirrorPolitics 6m6 minutes ago British forces head to Ukraine as David Cameron turns up the heat on Putin
With the way the polls are going,it could be Miliband turning the heat up on Putin in 3/4 months time (snigger)
Miliband certainly had more courage than Cameron when it came to taking on Murdoch and Dacre and the vile practices of their media outlets. There's also an air of principle about him unlike mercantilist Dave.
He has such high principles he has also taken on the Mirror Group. Oh wait a minute......
Incidentally anyone else think that Channel 4's piece of malevolence is the driver of the UKIP slide?
No.
They've just been out of the limelight for a bit. That will change and I would expect them to pick up again when it does.
But why the sudden drop now when they've been out of the limelight (intentionally) for at least a couple of months?
UKIP were never really on 23%. This is simply a reversion to a more normal score. Polling from Sunday onwards still puts UKIP on an average 14%.
19% is the lowest with Survation since last September and four out of the five polls prior to this one with Survation were 23% or higher. That would suggest in Survations eyes at least they were on 23%.
However, whether UKIP were actually on 23% is irrelevant. Its that we have seen similar drops in three polls in two days . That suggests there is some sort of event impact affecting their vote share.
The event is the general election. UKIP are on 11% with phone pollsters, with the Tories on 34%. UKIP average 16-17% with internet panels, with the Tories averaging c. 31%. But TNS and Survation drag the Tory poll average down, and push the UKIP poll average up.
Mirror Politics @MirrorPolitics 6m6 minutes ago British forces head to Ukraine as David Cameron turns up the heat on Putin
With the way the polls are going,it could be Miliband turning the heat up on Putin in 3/4 months time (snigger)
Miliband certainly had more courage than Cameron when it came to taking on Murdoch and Dacre and the vile practices of their media outlets. There's also an air of principle about him unlike mercantilist Dave.
I think you mean that, out of spite, Labour turned on Murdoch once he stopped supporting them:
I have to say I feel really sorry for Malcolm Rifkind. A lifetime in public life and a genuinely decent man by all accounts. That he should end his public life humiliated when a sleazeball like Nadhim Zahawi rifled the public purse to keep his horses heated yet is shimmying his way up the cabinet is a sad sign of the times
Mirror Politics @MirrorPolitics 6m6 minutes ago British forces head to Ukraine as David Cameron turns up the heat on Putin
With the way the polls are going,it could be Miliband turning the heat up on Putin in 3/4 months time (snigger)
Miliband certainly had more courage than Cameron when it came to taking on Murdoch and Dacre and the vile practices of their media outlets. There's also an air of principle about him unlike mercantilist Dave.
Bollocks,just wait until they get into power,you will finish up disappointed.
@coolagorna No, I saw it in the news, our stock market is at levels not seen since the dot com bust......but this time it hasn't been artificially pumped up! It is as sound as our house prices.
it is.....isn't it?
Ajusted for inflation, the stock market is half the value of 1999, and as a percentage of gdp, it's 60% down.
Yes, the meme that the 'rich' (by which I think the Left mean ordinary pension funds) have grabbed all the goodies in the last 15 years is rather threadbare.
Add in reinvested dividends and then you are doing all right even if you bought at the very peak of the dot com bubble.
Incidentally anyone else think that Channel 4's piece of malevolence is the driver of the UKIP slide?
No.
They've just been out of the limelight for a bit. That will change and I would expect them to pick up again when it does.
But why the sudden drop now when they've been out of the limelight (intentionally) for at least a couple of months?
Well for one thing the drop isn't that dramatic, and I think 'a couple of months' is stretching it.
But sell them if you think the decline will continue. I'm not doing so, not yet, and if I'm wrong I'll pay for it, not for the first time.
UKIP heading for 8/9 % at the next GE an inexorable decline looms
Mark
In fairness, you ought to advise new visitors to the Site that you can only improve on your record as a General Election tipster.
Mark might be right this time. 8/9% is quite possible for UKIP.
It's also worth noting that this would STILL be a remarkable achievement. Just two years ago pb-ers were scoffing at the idea of UKIP getting anything more than 2-3% at the GE. 9% would see the Farageists level pegging with the Lib Dems as third party, as present polls go.
This is a revolution, it's just not quite the wild revolution we envisaged a few weeks ago.
My present guess is UKIP will get around 10-12%. 14% tops.
Those figures look plausible.
Worth noting that TNS and Survation aside, the two main parties are now level-pegging.
If Survation is correct, its time to leave the country. Who are the idiots who say to pollsters they want the 2 Eds to turn the UK into Greece?
Bye
Happy to take the many multiples of tax I pay vs the average tax payer with me. Hows that help pay for Labour's stupid spending plans?
Babies who threaten to leave should just get on with it.
I seem to remember Andrew Lloyd Webber threatening to leave in 1997. Dont think he ever did.
What stupid spending plans Let me guess the NHS or welfare state?
The IFS by the way thinks the Tory tax cut promises makes them the biggest black hole party
Boy have you got a nasty surprise in wait, if (God forbid) Ed does become PM in a few weeks time, most especially if he's dependent on the whim of Ms Sturgeon to get anything through parliament. The grown-ups in Labour are in no doubt of the catastrophe ahead, of course, but I can't quite decide whether the rest really don't see the obvious, or are just whistling in the wind to keep their spirits up.
On these numbers he'll just have to give some cash to NI. I think.
Outlier I am sure...but no consistent trend of polling in the opposite direction which would prevent a Labour win, so it hardly matters if it is way out - only ones which are similarly out of the general range show anything that might help the Tories win, even if they might have had hopes in the past few months of limiting the scale of the loss.
That's the nub of the matter, Kle.
Although few would believe that Labour are really 6 points ahead, the polls this year fail to indicate any kind of trend towards the Tories that might be consistent with them winning most seats, never mind an overall majority.
On the bare evidence of all those polls you'd have to be crazy to back them at odds on to win more seats than Labour, and personally I'd want 12/1 minimum before I I even thought about backing them for an OM. In fact you could probably make an equally good case for a Labour OM - not that I think that is very likely either.
Mirror Politics @MirrorPolitics 6m6 minutes ago British forces head to Ukraine as David Cameron turns up the heat on Putin
With the way the polls are going,it could be Miliband turning the heat up on Putin in 3/4 months time (snigger)
Miliband certainly had more courage than Cameron when it came to taking on Murdoch and Dacre and the vile practices of their media outlets. There's also an air of principle about him unlike mercantilist Dave.
He has such high principles he has also taken on the Mirror Group. Oh wait a minute......
He's no political giant, I was just comparing him to useless Dave.
Haven't heard from Rod Crosby with his swingback model lately. I hope they're both OK. Is the probability of a Labour majority still 0%, or has it crept up to 1%?
I must admit to being a bit twitchy about UKIP>LD bets, and closing my position out for a skewed arb (I win either way, but more if UKIP get more votes) a few weeks ago. UKIP appear to have settled around 14% or so, and are possibly slightly falling. The LDs appear to be slightly recovering to nearer double-figures than previously.
But that's the polling averages. If some of the more UKIP-bearish pollsters are right, and they are some of the more established companies, then the UKIP/LD gap is barely 1 or 2%. I'd say the 5/2 available on the LDs probably has a touch of value.
@coolagorna No, I saw it in the news, our stock market is at levels not seen since the dot com bust......but this time it hasn't been artificially pumped up! It is as sound as our house prices.
it is.....isn't it?
Ajusted for inflation, the stock market is half the value of 1999, and as a percentage of gdp, it's 60% down.
Yes, the meme that the 'rich' (by which I think the Left mean ordinary pension funds) have grabbed all the goodies in the last 15 years is rather threadbare.
Add in reinvested dividends and then you are doing all right even if you bought at the very peak of the dot com bubble.
Not particularly - less than 3% per annum before inflation.
Haven't heard from Rod Crosby with his swingback model lately. I hope they're both OK. Is the probability of a Labour majority still 0%, or has it crept up to 1%?
@Pulpstar War, boom, depression, war, boom depression war, It is a cycle as natural as the tides. Humans are remarkably stupid at times. (gallows humour )
Incidentally anyone else think that Channel 4's piece of malevolence is the driver of the UKIP slide?
No.
They've just been out of the limelight for a bit. That will change and I would expect them to pick up again when it does.
But why the sudden drop now when they've been out of the limelight (intentionally) for at least a couple of months?
UKIP were never really on 23%. This is simply a reversion to a more normal score. Polling from Sunday onwards still puts UKIP on an average 14%.
19% is the lowest with Survation since last September and four out of the five polls prior to this one with Survation were 23% or higher. That would suggest in Survations eyes at least they were on 23%.
However, whether UKIP were actually on 23% is irrelevant. Its that we have seen similar drops in three polls in two days . That suggests there is some sort of event impact affecting their vote share.
The event is the general election. UKIP are on 11% with phone pollsters, with the Tories on 34%. UKIP average 16-17% with internet panels, with the Tories averaging c. 31%. But TNS and Survation drag the Tory poll average down, and push the UKIP poll average up.
OK whatever, disregard the point that I was trying to make and carrying with your own point which was never at issue.......
At this stage in 2010 the polls were giving the Tories a 6% lead compared with 7.3% on May 6th. The remaining weeks,therefore, saw a small swing to the Opposition
Richard Nabavi - I'm sorry but that won't do. Both Miliband and Cameron had a chance to take a stand when it came to phone hacking. Cameron was found wanting. I can''t believe you want to even try to defend him on this one. Bringing back Labour's cosy relationship with Murdoch pre-2009 is a red herring.
On these numbers he'll just have to give some cash to NI. I think.
That won't work, except in the very short term. Once a government starts trying to buy off one group, that just encourages another group (Ms Sturgeon, for example) to demand a matching price plus a bit more.
Anyone who hasn't yet taken whatever steps they can to protect their personal position still has a few weeks to do so. Of course as usual it's the least able to protect themselves who will be most badly hit.
@tnewtondunn A new, and rather interesting, celeb name is being pushed to go for Kensington by No10. They just may do it too. In tmrw's @TheSunNewspaper.
Richard Nabavi - I'm sorry but that won't do. Both Miliband and Cameron had a chance to take a stand when it came to phone hacking. Cameron was found wanting. I can''t believe you want to even try to defend him on this one. Bringing back Labour's cosy relationship with Murdoch pre-2009 is a red herring.
And what as miliband said on phone hacking with the mirror group ?
Mirror Politics @MirrorPolitics 6m6 minutes ago British forces head to Ukraine as David Cameron turns up the heat on Putin
Oh God.
And you don't think a miliband Government will be doing the same(The labour party are more anti putin)
I have no idea ! This is a here and now issue, just worries me a bit. I don't concern myself with Labour's theoretical foreign policy as I'd never vote for them. I'd say the same if it was PM Miliband. Russia is not Argentina or Iraq.
Richard Nabavi - I'm sorry but that won't do. Both Miliband and Cameron had a chance to take a stand when it came to phone hacking. Cameron was found wanting. I can''t believe you want to even try to defend him on this one. Bringing back Labour's cosy relationship with Murdoch pre-2009 is a red herring.
What has Miliband said or done about industrial scale at the Mirror? Absolutely nothing.
Typical double standards and hypocrisy, God I hate Socialists.
Lemmings who think that the current trend leads to the end result are bookmakers favourite punters
As per the article earlier, it's only a trend if it shows a direction of travel that you favour; otherwise it is a blip.
I would think the Lib Dems would be delighted with this poll. The Survation "house effect" is estimated to be slightly on the low side for the Lib Dems compared to other pollsters, so scoring in double figures with Survation is notable in a way that isn't the case with a pollster more favourable to the Lib Dems, such as ICM or Ipsos-MORI.
@tnewtondunn A new, and rather interesting, celeb name is being pushed to go for Kensington by No10. They just may do it too. In tmrw's @TheSunNewspaper.
" Remind me, which were the surprise LibDem gains at the 2010 GE? "
Arguably ALL the LibDem gains would have been surprises to various people and to varying degrees:
Redcar Burnley Bradford East Norwich South Brent Central Eastbourne Wells
While many of the gains which the LibDems were widely expected to make - Islington South, Oxford East, Hampstead, Watford, Edinburgh South for example - never happened.
I suspect we'll see a similar pattern of surprise gains and surprise misses for UKIP this year.
If Survation is correct, its time to leave the country. Who are the idiots who say to pollsters they want the 2 Eds to turn the UK into Greece?
Bye
... to your pension.
Troll
And you accuse others of being a baby?
Only pathetic people who threaten to leave the country if the voters dont do as there told
Why's that pathetic? If people really do not like the Govt and can go elsewhere what's the problem?
It's usually a transparently empty threat. It's hard to find the image of somebody stamping their foot, telling an obvious lie, and then often finishing up by talking about what an important taxpayer or "wealth creator" they are anything but pathetic.
On these numbers he'll just have to give some cash to NI. I think.
That won't work, except in the very short term. Once a government starts trying to buy off one group, that just encourages another group (Ms Sturgeon, for example) to demand a matching price plus a bit more.
Anyone who hasn't yet taken whatever steps they can to protect their personal position still has a few weeks to do so. Of course as usual it's the least able to protect themselves who will be most badly hit.
I'm decades off from retirement so purchasing 5 years of cheap FTSE could work out well in the long run. 60% of auto pension buy...
@tnewtondunn A new, and rather interesting, celeb name is being pushed to go for Kensington by No10. They just may do it too. In tmrw's @TheSunNewspaper.
@coolagorna No, I saw it in the news, our stock market is at levels not seen since the dot com bust......but this time it hasn't been artificially pumped up! It is as sound as our house prices.
it is.....isn't it?
Ajusted for inflation, the stock market is half the value of 1999, and as a percentage of gdp, it's 60% down.
Yes, the meme that the 'rich' (by which I think the Left mean ordinary pension funds) have grabbed all the goodies in the last 15 years is rather threadbare.
Add in reinvested dividends and then you are doing all right even if you bought at the very peak of the dot com bubble.
Not particularly - less than 3% per annum before inflation.
3.6% And that still seems pretty good to me for investing at the absolute worst possible time.
Richard Nabavi - I'm sorry but that won't do. Both Miliband and Cameron had a chance to take a stand when it came to phone hacking. Cameron was found wanting. I can''t believe you want to even try to defend him on this one. Bringing back Labour's cosy relationship with Murdoch pre-2009 is a red herring.
What has Miliband said or done about industrial scale at the Mirror? Absolutely nothing.
Typical double standards and hypocrisy, God I hate Socialists.
You may have a point but actually I think I might prefer double standards to people who have no standards at all.
Haven't heard from Rod Crosby with his swingback model lately. I hope they're both OK. Is the probability of a Labour majority still 0%, or has it crept up to 1%?
Nick, it is unfair to mention 0%. Rod had said that his "L&N" model gave the Tories 99% certainty of absolute majority. Therefore, presumably Labour held the other 1%.
But then NOM must come before Labour. So you were right !
Richard Nabavi - I'm sorry but that won't do. Both Miliband and Cameron had a chance to take a stand when it came to phone hacking. Cameron was found wanting. I can''t believe you want to even try to defend him on this one. Bringing back Labour's cosy relationship with Murdoch pre-2009 is a red herring.
What has Miliband said or done about industrial scale at the Mirror? Absolutely nothing.
Typical double standards and hypocrisy, God I hate Socialists.
Socialists are eveywhere SNP, PC, Respect, Green and about 10% of Labour MPs.
Richard Nabavi - I'm sorry but that won't do. Both Miliband and Cameron had a chance to take a stand when it came to phone hacking. Cameron was found wanting. I can''t believe you want to even try to defend him on this one. Bringing back Labour's cosy relationship with Murdoch pre-2009 is a red herring.
So, to get this straight, you think that phone hacking, which was carried out by the most important Labour-supporting newspaper group (and, we've recently discovered, by the other mass-market Labour-supporting newspaper group), under a Labour government, and was investigated three times under Labour-appointed Met police commissioners, and was considered by a Labour Attorney General, and was investigated without any result by a Labour-dominated select committee under the Labour government, somehow contrives to be Cameron's fault?
If Survation is correct, its time to leave the country. Who are the idiots who say to pollsters they want the 2 Eds to turn the UK into Greece?
Bye
... to your pension.
Troll
And you accuse others of being a baby?
Only pathetic people who threaten to leave the country if the voters dont do as there told
Why's that pathetic? If people really do not like the Govt and can go elsewhere what's the problem?
It's usually a transparently empty threat. It's hard to find the image of somebody stamping their foot, telling an obvious lie, and then often finishing up by talking about what an important taxpayer or "wealth creator" they are anything but pathetic.
Didn't we have a "brain drain" in the 70's? The Ed's seem to want to turn the clock back to 1975 as well...
" Remind me, which were the surprise LibDem gains at the 2010 GE? "
Arguably ALL the LibDem gains would have been surprises to various people and to varying degrees:
Redcar Burnley Bradford East Norwich South Brent Central Eastbourne Wells
While many of the gains which the LibDems were widely expected to make - Islington South, Oxford East, Hampstead, Watford, Edinburgh South for example - never happened.
I suspect we'll see a similar pattern of surprise gains and surprise misses for UKIP this year.
Hampstead had a truly outstanding conservative candidate in 2010, Chris philip, and a pretty poor libdem one (whose name I have forgotten). In 2015, it is the other way around. Comfortable labour hold, if wager.
Richard Nabavi - I'm sorry but that won't do. Both Miliband and Cameron had a chance to take a stand when it came to phone hacking. Cameron was found wanting. I can''t believe you want to even try to defend him on this one. Bringing back Labour's cosy relationship with Murdoch pre-2009 is a red herring.
What has Miliband said or done about industrial scale at the Mirror? Absolutely nothing.
Typical double standards and hypocrisy, God I hate Socialists.
You may have a point but actually I think I might prefer double standards to people who have no standards at all.
What has Ed said or done about Rotherham?
He has no standards whatsoever until he addresses this.
@coolagorna No, I saw it in the news, our stock market is at levels not seen since the dot com bust......but this time it hasn't been artificially pumped up! It is as sound as our house prices.
it is.....isn't it?
Ajusted for inflation, the stock market is half the value of 1999, and as a percentage of gdp, it's 60% down.
Yes, the meme that the 'rich' (by which I think the Left mean ordinary pension funds) have grabbed all the goodies in the last 15 years is rather threadbare.
The 'rich' who have been grabbing the wealth are the executive oligarchy.
Both the capitalists and the workers have been losing out to these parasites.
Richard Nabavi - I'm sorry but that won't do. Both Miliband and Cameron had a chance to take a stand when it came to phone hacking. Cameron was found wanting. I can''t believe you want to even try to defend him on this one. Bringing back Labour's cosy relationship with Murdoch pre-2009 is a red herring.
What has Miliband said or done about industrial scale at the Mirror? Absolutely nothing.
Typical double standards and hypocrisy, God I hate Socialists.
Haven't heard from Rod Crosby with his swingback model lately. I hope they're both OK. Is the probability of a Labour majority still 0%, or has it crept up to 1%?
Nick, it is unfair to mention 0%. Rod had said that his "L&N" model gave the Tories 99% certainty of absolute majority. Therefore, presumably Labour held the other 1%.
But then NOM must come before Labour. So you were right !
What does L&N stand for: Losers and No Hopers
We actually have less telephone polling than in the run-up to the last election. If we had more telephone polling, we'd probably see more frequent Conservative leads.
@coolagorna No, I saw it in the news, our stock market is at levels not seen since the dot com bust......but this time it hasn't been artificially pumped up! It is as sound as our house prices.
it is.....isn't it?
Ajusted for inflation, the stock market is half the value of 1999, and as a percentage of gdp, it's 60% down.
Yes, the meme that the 'rich' (by which I think the Left mean ordinary pension funds) have grabbed all the goodies in the last 15 years is rather threadbare.
Add in reinvested dividends and then you are doing all right even if you bought at the very peak of the dot com bubble.
Not particularly - less than 3% per annum before inflation.
3.6% And that still seems pretty good to me for investing at the absolute worst possible time.
In nominal terms, stock markets have tended to average around 9% annual nominal returns over longer periods. If you think of it as 2.5% economic growth, 2.5% inflation, 3% dividends, and 1% share buy backs, that gets to the number.
Richard Nabavi - I'm sorry but that won't do. Both Miliband and Cameron had a chance to take a stand when it came to phone hacking. Cameron was found wanting. I can''t believe you want to even try to defend him on this one. Bringing back Labour's cosy relationship with Murdoch pre-2009 is a red herring.
So, to get this straight, you think that phone hacking, which was carried out by the most important Labour-supporting newspaper group (and, we've recently discovered, by the other mass-market Labour-supporting newspaper group), under a Labour government, and was investigated three times under Labour-appointed Met police commissioners, and was considered by a Labour Attorney General, and was investigated without any result by a Labour-dominated select committee under the Labour government, somehow contrives to be Cameron's fault?
As I said: hypocrisy, thy name is Labour.
I'm not a defender of Labour 1997-2010. I didn't even vote for them. My point was about Cameron utter failure on phone hacking when it became blindingly obvious something needed to be done. I know it's hard for you to understand but there are many of us out there who are neither kipper or tribal Labour who nonetheless think Cameron is a slimy, vacuous, spineless irrelevance of a PM.
Comments
British forces head to Ukraine as David Cameron turns up the heat on Putin
In fairness, you ought to advise new visitors to the Site that you can only improve on your record as a General Election tipster.
'The "missing ISIS girls" have now crossed into Syria (says BBC news). So that's it. They've joined ISIS. Which is crime. They are criminals.'
Good riddance.
Your missing the point. I'm trying to discern whether or not this is an event based drop in their share.. If it is chances are it will be countered with a bit of positive publicity as you suggest. if its not and is a general realignment then it might not.
Fancy a ukip vs libdem vote share bet?
Yay for humanity, and common sense. We will teach those Red scum what real British training and tactics can do.
While the bastards are pissing their pants laughing, we will attack!
people get a newspaper now....they are just not buying it..either
the papers themselves or the ludicrous lies that they print
Ed, Nicola, Caroline and Leanne will begin to slowly turn the
failed neo liberal 36 year disaster around in probably the
finest Goverment since 1945..Feel the Rainbow.Taste the Rainbow
Not even just a teensy weensy bit pumped up Robert? Or is it truly down to the increased efficiency of our factory workers, prostitutes and drug dealers?
All hail Ozzie for engineering the oil price drop!
My assessment, based on years of political punting and trawling Sites like this, is that we will see an uptick in UKIP's poll ratings when they receive a bit more publicity, as they are likely to do nearer the GE date.
Naturally I can't advise both my loyal followers to lump on in view of this rather subjective assessment, but I nevertheless think it's a reasonable one.
'With the way the polls are going,it could be Miliband turning the heat up on Putin in 3/4 months time (snigger)'
He won't have time for that stuff, far too busy being Sturgeon's lackey.
This is a Grand National election.
Best strategy is a sharp pin and a (silk?) blindfold.
Only teasing, Mark. We all know how accurate your forecasts are, especially when it come to projecting LibDem seat totals. ;-)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZatq52abJw
Before that, every single Labour minister, including Ed Miliband, seemed happy enough at the cosy relationship.
As for 'principle', a week after Ed used parliamentary privilege to smear a named individual is probably not the best time to push that line.
Hypocrisy, thy name is Labour.
Meanwhile, Labour Most Seats is still 2.56 on Betfair. Hope springs eternal for the blue team I guess.
Might be easier if some of the runners come a cropper on the first lap?
Worth noting that TNS and Survation aside, the two main parties are now level-pegging.
Although few would believe that Labour are really 6 points ahead, the polls this year fail to indicate any kind of trend towards the Tories that might be consistent with them winning most seats, never mind an overall majority.
On the bare evidence of all those polls you'd have to be crazy to back them at odds on to win more seats than Labour, and personally I'd want 12/1 minimum before I I even thought about backing them for an OM. In fact you could probably make an equally good case for a Labour OM - not that I think that is very likely either.
But that's the polling averages. If some of the more UKIP-bearish pollsters are right, and they are some of the more established companies, then the UKIP/LD gap is barely 1 or 2%. I'd say the 5/2 available on the LDs probably has a touch of value.
Don't knock "swingback" it exists, just not in the form many think it does.
Today not so good so far but YG still to come
Polls? Where we're going, we don't need polls.
War, boom, depression, war, boom depression war, It is a cycle as natural as the tides.
Humans are remarkably stupid at times.
(gallows humour
Anyone who hasn't yet taken whatever steps they can to protect their personal position still has a few weeks to do so. Of course as usual it's the least able to protect themselves who will be most badly hit.
"is a red herring. "
Richard is a Kipper?
@tnewtondunn
A new, and rather interesting, celeb name is being pushed to go for Kensington by No10. They just may do it too. In tmrw's @TheSunNewspaper.
Typical double standards and hypocrisy, God I hate Socialists.
I would think the Lib Dems would be delighted with this poll. The Survation "house effect" is estimated to be slightly on the low side for the Lib Dems compared to other pollsters, so scoring in double figures with Survation is notable in a way that isn't the case with a pollster more favourable to the Lib Dems, such as ICM or Ipsos-MORI.
I don't see it as a problem, it is the whining to be let back in when things turn to ratshit at your chosen destination that narks me.
" Remind me, which were the surprise LibDem gains at the 2010 GE? "
Arguably ALL the LibDem gains would have been surprises to various people and to varying degrees:
Redcar
Burnley
Bradford East
Norwich South
Brent Central
Eastbourne
Wells
While many of the gains which the LibDems were widely expected to make - Islington South, Oxford East, Hampstead, Watford, Edinburgh South for example - never happened.
I suspect we'll see a similar pattern of surprise gains and surprise misses for UKIP this year.
But then NOM must come before Labour. So you were right !
What does L&N stand for: Losers and No Hopers
As I said: hypocrisy, thy name is Labour.
He has no standards whatsoever until he addresses this.
And the other person on the shortlist should be Joanna Cash.
Both the capitalists and the workers have been losing out to these parasites.
Most people just offshore their assets, and remain here.
So much more efficient
Can anyone explain why Home Secretary Theresa May and Policing Minister Mike Penning continue to show no interest ?
I wonder if 75 gays might scare Putin more?
(made in a non discriminatory way of course)