OGH seems to me have abandoned all objectivity and taken to trolling the PB tories. I fear his heart is starting to rule his head. A while back I had some agreement with his stance, but with Libdems nationally on about 6%, there just will not be enough voters voting purely on local issues in Libdem constituencies to save them.
I think OGH and other Libdems also underestimate the extent to which voters in places like Yeovil constituency were "none of the above voters" rather than sympathisers with Libdem policies and will decamp en masse to UKIP & Green, along with Labour tactical voters decamping back to Labour or voting Green, who incidentally did not stand in 2010 in Yeovil.
Talking of trolling, can you update us on the #StValentinesDayPollingMassacre ?
"A big hope for the yellow team is that after five years of being constrained by the coalition it will be pitching on its own behalf with its very specific messages."
Yes, "hope". I'm afraid it's nothing more than that.
The wishful thinking on PB threads is 99% from the Tories just like your comment.
Your own son agrees with my forecast.
Kids eh?
FWIW I don't think the Liberal Democrats deserve to do as badly as they will. I really mean that. They have contributed a great deal to the coalition over the last 5 years, even where I didn't personally agree with it.
Mike detested Gordon Brown, and was full of enthusiasm when the coalition was first formed. He became pissed off with the Tories after what he perceived as dirty tricks over electoral reform and ratting on the House of Lords reform. It annoyed him even more that they took credit for some of the Lib Dem initiatives, such as the income tax allowance rise, whilst the Lib Dems themselves sank in the polls.
So he now wants the Tories to be punished, and is even thinking about tactically voting Labour, and is in denial about the Lib Dems electoral position.
That explains the shift in the editorial positions over the last 5 years.
Of course, the tax allowance wasn't a uniquely LibDem policy - it had been in the Tory manifesto in 2005, I believe, for example. But it was an okay policy (although I think it has potentially been taken too far because I believe that anyone working should make some contribution through direct taxation).
On the other points, frankly he was just in denial. The Tories were always upfront they would campaign against AV. And Cameron always knew he couldn't deliver his party on HoL reform, so he didn't promise to.
But he was just looking for excuses to dislike the Tories.
Did I dream it or did betting Shrewdies on here too England for the cricket World Cup, the strategy being to go in again after we'd got the difficult game vs the Aussies out of the way?
And I swear I heard that the NZ conditions would suit broad and Anderson.... How'd they go?
48% is still showing what all other polls are showing - more people back Independence today than did on 18th September. The direction of travel continues and in 2017 or 2018 there will be a clear Yes vote in the second referendum.
This poll is weighted by Referendum recall. I suspect this will marginally (and increasingly over time) favour No as people's embarrassment at voting against Scotland leads to them lying about their 2014 vote.
Thank you Morris Dancer..as a keen betting man I have followed this site though never posted before ..though have on the Speccy and Labour List and mainly on Dan Hodges Ed bashing columns prior to the Torygraph stopping any comments on their hacks efforts.
Yes there always has and still is a strong Blue presence in Hallam mainly as it is the company director, ex footballer etc area of the city and under One Nation type Toryism of the 45 to 79 variety would no doubt have remained so to this day
However since Thatcherism the city has moved even more to the left in response...Clegg benefited from that (in fact the Libs briefly took council control a few years into Blairism as the city responded angrily to Labours rightward lurch) .and the strong student vote to build his majority up to its current strong looking one
However it is built on sand..the vote he got was a Anti Tory vote and as polls now show its a Lab-Lib fight in May in Hallam then Coppard is a great value bet at odds against as the mood in the city will be for the elections "Portillo" moment to come this time in the City of Steel
Sheffield Hallam doesn't have a large student population
Did anybody else find the phrase "they remain competitive" pretty unusual for a seat like Leeds NW where the LDs had a 20% lead and 9000 majority in 2010?
Surely, it should have been, "they continue to lead".
20+% majorities aren't the places you should be 'competing for', they should be fairly clear wins.
Did I dream it or did betting Shrewdies on here too England for the cricket World Cup, the strategy being to go in again after we'd got the difficult game vs the Aussies out of the way?
And I swear I heard that the NZ conditions would suit broad and Anderson.... How'd they go?
I tipped NZ on here at 6/1. Now into 3.7/1 - still nearly value.
Did I dream it or did betting Shrewdies on here too England for the cricket World Cup, the strategy being to go in again after we'd got the difficult game vs the Aussies out of the way?
And I swear I heard that the NZ conditions would suit broad and Anderson.... How'd they go?
I tipped NZ on here at 6/1. Now into 3.7/1 - still nearly value.
England 25/1 - missing a zero.
I set my alarm for 445am to trade the 2nd innings and it had finished!
Did I dream it or did betting Shrewdies on here too England for the cricket World Cup, the strategy being to go in again after we'd got the difficult game vs the Aussies out of the way?
And I swear I heard that the NZ conditions would suit broad and Anderson.... How'd they go?
I tipped NZ on here at 6/1. Now into 3.7/1 - still nearly value.
England 25/1 - missing a zero.
I set my alarm for 445am to trade the 2nd innings and it had finished!
Only good news for England is that there is no "super 8s" this time - straight to knockout. But their run rate is so garbage already they will struggle to finish better than 4th in the group (if that high) - so 1/4 vs Saffers with the winner playing NZ again beckons before a final vs Oz is the route to the trophy...
Did I dream it or did betting Shrewdies on here too England for the cricket World Cup, the strategy being to go in again after we'd got the difficult game vs the Aussies out of the way?
And I swear I heard that the NZ conditions would suit broad and Anderson.... How'd they go?
Not for 25 an over as Finn did, but not good either.
Complete overhaul needed when we get back (soon), KP must be laughing his dick off.
Dair Given the big swing to the SNP you would expect a Yes lead, 52-48 No in Survation is close to their pre referendum polling which underestimated No slightly, there are no guarantees a second referendum would be Yes as Quebec showed
Interesting use of funds: a local email is offering £50/head to people in Broxtowe who "have not ruled out voting Conservative" to come to a two-hour discussion. Assuming this is a Tory thing, is that something that will need to be declared as a long campaign election expense, since it's constituency-specific? If 60 people turn up, that's £3000...
I trust your local Labour Party members know what to do? It would be irresponsible for anyone to rule voting Conservative out - what if all but two of the candidates got run over by the same bus and it was down to Tory vs BNP?
Mr. Punter, best to ask Mr. Eagles, given he (I think) actually lives in Sheffield Hallam.
Worth noting that lots of people think Yorkshire = Labour/anti-Conservative.
In parts of the People's Republic of South Yorkshire that's true, but Sheffield Hallam's pretty swanky. Similarly, swathes of North Yorkshire are bluer than a drowning smurf.
I do think Balls will hold on here. Alas.
Thanks Morris.
I would have asked TSE, but fear his assessment of Traitorous Pig Dogs is less than wholly objective.
Thank you Morris Dancer..as a keen betting man I have followed this site though never posted before ..though have on the Speccy and Labour List and mainly on Dan Hodges Ed bashing columns prior to the Torygraph stopping any comments on their hacks efforts.
Yes there always has and still is a strong Blue presence in Hallam mainly as it is the company director, ex footballer etc area of the city and under One Nation type Toryism of the 45 to 79 variety would no doubt have remained so to this day
However since Thatcherism the city has moved even more to the left in response...Clegg benefited from that (in fact the Libs briefly took council control a few years into Blairism as the city responded angrily to Labours rightward lurch) .and the strong student vote to build his majority up to its current strong looking one
However it is built on sand..the vote he got was a Anti Tory vote and as polls now show its a Lab-Lib fight in May in Hallam then Coppard is a great value bet at odds against as the mood in the city will be for the elections "Portillo" moment to come this time in the City of Steel
Sheffield Hallam doesn't have a large student population
Clegg had a modest majority pre 2010..Students in their thousands helped to swell his majority at the last GE after the Tuition fees pledge..both Hallam and Central have healthy student populations...I should know I live in Central where the Libs nearly got in last time
This time Central will end up Lab 1st Green 2nd ..Libs not even on the radar
Dair Given the big swing to the SNP you would expect a Yes lead, 52-48 No to Survation is close to their pre referendum polling which underestimated No slightly, there are no guarantees a second referendum would be Yes as Quebec showed
As the correlation is not perfect but somewhere around 0.83 then the idea that an SNP surge to 45% leads to a Yes vote above 45% appears to be a non-sequitur.
I'm quite comfortable that, without an external shock, we are on course for a Yes vote in 2018 at the latest. Unionists can't really do anything to prevent this. Only conceding FFA immediately after the next election might be a sufficient shock to stop this time scale but Labour will never do that and the Tories will struggle to control a majority when the Liberals are annihilated and the SNP hold the BoP.
Did I dream it or did betting Shrewdies on here too England for the cricket World Cup, the strategy being to go in again after we'd got the difficult game vs the Aussies out of the way?
And I swear I heard that the NZ conditions would suit broad and Anderson.... How'd they go?
Not for 25 an over as Finn did, but not good either.
Complete overhaul needed when we get back (soon), KP must be laughing his dick off.
The fact that Pietersen will be feeling smug makes it a million times worse
Did I dream it or did betting Shrewdies on here too England for the cricket World Cup, the strategy being to go in again after we'd got the difficult game vs the Aussies out of the way?
And I swear I heard that the NZ conditions would suit broad and Anderson.... How'd they go?
Not for 25 an over as Finn did, but not good either.
Complete overhaul needed when we get back (soon), KP must be laughing his dick off.
The fact that Pietersen will be feeling smug makes it a million times worse
On topic, as others have said below, both government parties would be beneficiaries from a swingback to the LDs, given that in net terms most of it would come from Labour.
Question is, would it happen? There's been a long, slow decline the LD vote share all the way since the end of their initial collapse. At the start of 2011, the LDs were polling about 11.5%. By the start of 2013, they were around 10%. They're now at about 8.5%. It's true that the dynamics of the election may well change things: they'll get a little more coverage and may be able to differentiate themselves from the Tories more than at present (though how, specifically - and will it be credible after the experience of the last five years?)
In fact, there's an inherent contradiction in the Lib Dems' campaign strategy. Where they are in contention they're running wholly local campaigns based on the MP being a decent chap / lady. To then run a national campaign based on issues doesn't simply dilute that but actively undermines it as it reminds swing voters as to why they left the Lib Dems in the first place. On the other hand, to not run a meaningful national campaign would marginalise the Lib Dems further and place Clegg in an invidious position in the debates (if they happen).
The one point I agree with Mike on is the current strength of Labour's position and their under-estimate of it. What I would say is that it remains soft and is particularly vulnerable on the question of Miliband as PM (becoming more relevant given Putin's adventures), and apparent reliance on negative tactical anti-Tory votes. I suspect that Labour feel uncomfortable echoes of 1992 (and that Tories feel the same echoes). Are they right to? Perhaps so, but I certainly wouldn't bank on it. Miliband could easily be the next PM. If he does, he may well be the last Labour one ever though.
Lib Dems were nota pre 2010, that's where many of their votes came from... It's where ukip get plenty now I'm not kidding self any different... But lib Dems won't be getting their 2010 nota back
Richard Nabavi yesterday pointed out they got 11% in thurrock 2010 as evidence of lefty liberal types... I'd say that was nota not sandal wearers
Thank you Morris Dancer..as a keen betting man I have followed this site though never posted before ..though have on the Speccy and Labour List and mainly on Dan Hodges Ed bashing columns prior to the Torygraph stopping any comments on their hacks efforts.
Yes there always has and still is a strong Blue presence in Hallam mainly as it is the company director, ex footballer etc area of the city and under One Nation type Toryism of the 45 to 79 variety would no doubt have remained so to this day
However since Thatcherism the city has moved even more to the left in response...Clegg benefited from that (in fact the Libs briefly took council control a few years into Blairism as the city responded angrily to Labours rightward lurch) .and the strong student vote to build his majority up to its current strong looking one
However it is built on sand..the vote he got was a Anti Tory vote and as polls now show its a Lab-Lib fight in May in Hallam then Coppard is a great value bet at odds against as the mood in the city will be for the elections "Portillo" moment to come this time in the City of Steel
Sheffield Hallam doesn't have a large student population
Clegg had a modest majority pre 2010..Students in their thousands helped to swell his majority at the last GE after the Tuition fees pledge..both Hallam and Central have healthy student populations...I should know I live in Central where the Libs nearly got in last time
This time Central will end up Lab 1st Green 2nd ..Libs not even on the radar
You do know that Central has more than double the Uni students Central does.
You should know that most of the students were shunted out of Hallam when the Broomhill ward was moved to Sheffield Central.
And I'd hardly call a near 9,000 majority in 2005, as modest.
Nothing is certain in this world, but the seats I'd be almost certain the Lib Dems retain are Hallam, Yardley, Bermondsey, Leeds NW, Sutton, Carshalton, Twickenham, Colchester, Lewes, Colchester, Eastbourne, Southport, Yeovil, Orkney and Shetland, Ross, Westmoreland, Bath, and Cheltenham.
Dair As you point out most of the SNP surge has come from Yes voters, and as Quebec proved in 1995 a surge in votes by the main nationalist party does not necessarily equate to a vote for independence! Of course post the election the Smith plans will be implemented too, including giving Holyrood income tax powers
I wonder, is the basic incompatibility between Liberalism and Social Democracy what is undermining the Libdems.
It would appear to be the SDP element that has gone back to the Labour Party (or greens) in a huff, whereas Liberals are still there. Trouble is that there arn't enough Liberals for 30 seats and most of those that do survive will be Social Democrats add odds with the remaining membership....
As ever, an extremely lucid piece by Martin Wolf in today's FT, outlining the difficult choices over tax and spend that the political parties are keeping quiet about. It is impossible, reading this, to see how the Tories will be able to keep to their announced spending plans. A 30+ % cut in defence?
The one point I agree with Mike on is the current strength of Labour's position and their under-estimate of it. What I would say is that it remains soft and is particularly vulnerable on the question of Miliband as PM (becoming more relevant given Putin's adventures), and apparent reliance on negative tactical anti-Tory votes. I suspect that Labour feel uncomfortable echoes of 1992 (and that Tories feel the same echoes). Are they right to? Perhaps so, but I certainly wouldn't bank on it. Miliband could easily be the next PM. If he does, he may well be the last Labour one ever though.
I can't help thinking that Farage is praying for a weak Milipede government.
Interesting use of funds: a local email is offering £50/head to people in Broxtowe who "have not ruled out voting Conservative" to come to a two-hour discussion. Assuming this is a Tory thing, is that something that will need to be declared as a long campaign election expense, since it's constituency-specific? If 60 people turn up, that's £3000...
I trust your local Labour Party members know what to do? It would be irresponsible for anyone to rule voting Conservative out - what if all but two of the candidates got run over by the same bus and it was down to Tory vs BNP?
Elections are delayed if one of the candidates dies in between close of nominations and polling day - as with Thirsk and Malton in 2010.
However, it would be possible that the candidates for other parties would in some other way become unelectable, thereby reducing the choice to that indicated.
Hopefully the BNP no longer have the funds to stand enough candidates to qualify for a Party Election Broadcast.
Did I dream it or did betting Shrewdies on here too England for the cricket World Cup, the strategy being to go in again after we'd got the difficult game vs the Aussies out of the way?
And I swear I heard that the NZ conditions would suit broad and Anderson.... How'd they go?
Not for 25 an over as Finn did, but not good either.
Complete overhaul needed when we get back (soon), KP must be laughing his dick off.
The fact that Pietersen will be feeling smug makes it a million times worse
Still better thís than him in the team
Will it still be better if Scotland beat them?
Of course! I'd rather us lose every match than reinstate him. playing for England was only ever a career move for him, as it ian or our current captain
I’ve been wondering about phone polls. I’ve had two calls already this morning from people claiming to be calling in behalf of :opinion surveys. Now IME 99% of the time these turn out to be thinly disguised advertising scams; if you say you haven’t got life insurance, for exampler, then the floodgates open. TPS, incidentally doesn’t work because from the accents these calls are from abroad.
I wonder what happens when a genuine telephone poller calls someone like me who is fed up to the back teeth with these pests.
Of course if anyone knows how to stop these calls from abroad, I’d be grateful. The only way I can think of is to let the phone ring out, then check to see if it’s a genuine number. I don’t think our machines have caller display.
Nothing is certain in this world, but the seats I'd be almost certain the Lib Dems retain are Hallam, Yardley, Bermondsey, Leeds NW, Sutton, Carshalton, Twickenham, Colchester, Lewes, Colchester, Eastbourne, Southport, Yeovil, Orkney and Shetland, Ross, Westmoreland, Bath, and Cheltenham.
Dair As you point out most of the SNP surge has come from Yes voters, and as Quebec proved in 1995 a surge in votes by the main nationalist party does not necessarily equate to a vote for independence! Of course post the election the Smith plans will be implemented too, including giving Holyrood income tax powers
and 70% of Scots say Smith is not nearly enough.
I'm not sure why this doesn't get through to unionists or sceptics. NOTHING short of Full Fiscal Autonomy will derail the march to Independence. Scotland BELIEVES it is wealthier and wants to keep it's own revenues at the expense of rUK.
Whether Scotland is right or not is actually irrelevant now. The argument is lost. Devo-max, Home Rule, FFA, Federalism, call it what you will. It is the only remaining hope for the Union.
As ever, an extremely lucid piece by Martin Wolf in today's FT, outlining the difficult choices over tax and spend that the political parties are keeping quiet about. It is impossible, reading this, to see how the Tories will be able to keep to their announced spending plans. A 30+ % cut in defence?
What fun in the newspaper world. Why do they print all this dross?
The Telegraph is in self destruct mode. Unreadable for 10+ years The Guardian is in hyper hypocrisy mode as a tax avoider unsupportable The Times is hampered by Murdoch ownership unsuportable The FT is still schizophrenic, left leaning right reading The Mirror should be closed by hacking The Sun can't sell without p3 The Express finds a cold blast of Diana on the Moon (again) The Mail lacks content but somehow sells and has an online offer that works The Independent is it still printed? A ream of irrelevance. The Metro is great to put under your coffee mug on the train to prevent drips
Now I understand why I don't get a daily paper any more. None of them offer trustworthy reporting or rigorous broad based intellectual challenge.
What fun in the newspaper world. Why do they print all this dross?
The Telegraph is in self destruct mode. Unreadable for 10+ years The Guardian is in hyper hypocrisy mode as a tax avoider unsupportable The Times is hampered by Murdoch ownership unsuportable The FT is still schizophrenic, left leaning right reading The Mirror should be closed by hacking The Sun can't sell without p3 The Express finds a cold blast of Diana on the Moon (again) The Mail lacks content but somehow sells and has an online offer that works The Independent is it still printed? A ream of irrelevance. The Metro is great to put under your coffee mug on the train to prevent drips
Now I understand why I don't get a daily paper any more. None of them offer trustworthy reporting or rigorous broad based intellectual challenge.
That's why I read the Racing Post. Quality offering.
The one point I agree with Mike on is the current strength of Labour's position and their under-estimate of it. What I would say is that it remains soft and is particularly vulnerable on the question of Miliband as PM (becoming more relevant given Putin's adventures), and apparent reliance on negative tactical anti-Tory votes. I suspect that Labour feel uncomfortable echoes of 1992 (and that Tories feel the same echoes). Are they right to? Perhaps so, but I certainly wouldn't bank on it. Miliband could easily be the next PM. If he does, he may well be the last Labour one ever though.
A difference between now and 1992 is that Kinnock with his Welsh windbaggery and horde of Scottish socialists seemed a much bigger threat to suburban middle England than EdM does now.
And it was this threat which was behind the last minute fear factor vote for the suburban everyman John Major.
Now there might be many negative things to say about EdM but he comes across as a nerdy weed rather than a threat.
I’ve been wondering about phone polls. I’ve had two calls already this morning from people claiming to be calling in behalf of :opinion surveys. Now IME 99% of the time these turn out to be thinly disguised advertising scams; if you say you haven’t got life insurance, for exampler, then the floodgates open. TPS, incidentally doesn’t work because from the accents these calls are from abroad.
I wonder what happens when a genuine telephone poller calls someone like me who is fed up to the back teeth with these pests.
Of course if anyone knows how to stop these calls from abroad, I’d be grateful. The only way I can think of is to let the phone ring out, then check to see if it’s a genuine number. I don’t think our machines have caller display.
This really is one of the modern plagues. I'm afraid the answer is Caller Display. Not only will your phone show you who is calling, but BT have a new phone that can be programmed to block numbers you don't want calling.
After years of hassle, we have gone Ex-directory, TPS and off the public electoral roll. We also don't answer any call that comes up as 'International' or 'unknown' on the Caller Display unless we are expecting something.
Frankly, any political party that had a workable solution to cold calling would walk the General Election.
Did I dream it or did betting Shrewdies on here too England for the cricket World Cup, the strategy being to go in again after we'd got the difficult game vs the Aussies out of the way?
And I swear I heard that the NZ conditions would suit broad and Anderson.... How'd they go?
Not for 25 an over as Finn did, but not good either.
Complete overhaul needed when we get back (soon), KP must be laughing his dick off.
The fact that Pietersen will be feeling smug makes it a million times worse
Still better thís than him in the team
Will it still be better if Scotland beat them?
Of course! I'd rather us lose every match than reinstate him. playing for England was only ever a career move for him, as it ian or our current captain
Well if you still insist on attempting to run what is effectively The Empire XI instead of sticking to players who are actually from England and Wales you may find this sort of mercenary behaviour will persist.
The one point I agree with Mike on is the current strength of Labour's position and their under-estimate of it. What I would say is that it remains soft and is particularly vulnerable on the question of Miliband as PM (becoming more relevant given Putin's adventures), and apparent reliance on negative tactical anti-Tory votes. I suspect that Labour feel uncomfortable echoes of 1992 (and that Tories feel the same echoes). Are they right to? Perhaps so, but I certainly wouldn't bank on it. Miliband could easily be the next PM. If he does, he may well be the last Labour one ever though.
A difference between now and 1992 is that Kinnock with his Welsh windbaggery and horde of Scottish socialists seemed a much bigger threat to suburban middle England than EdM does now.
And it was this threat which was behind the last minute fear factor vote for the suburban everyman John Major.
Now there might be many negative things to say about EdM but he comes across as a nerdy weed rather than a threat.
My memory of 1992 was it was the 'tax what won it' - the fear in middle england that Lab would hit people with tax. I know, anecdotally, that this turned several waivers to Tories at last minute, just through my own networks of family and friends. Interestingly, it was often women.
I do agree with Mike to a degree. I think LD's will just about poll double figures (perhaps not far behind UKIP) in percentage terms and they probably retain around half their seats.
They will be almost wiped out in Scotland and they will lose a lot of votes where they have built up good 2nd places over the course of the last quarter of a century, but where they have incumbent MPs in England they will fight very hard and probably only lose a few.
You think it certain that the LibDems will hold Sutton ?
If so then trends in outer London are even worse for the Conservatives than I thought.
I wouldn't call Chippenham or the Somerset constituencies write-offs either.
And I would expect Hazel Grove and Cheadle to be LibDem holds.
The 2014 locals in Sutton were dreadful for the Conservatives though Timmo will probably be along soon to tell everyone losing seats to the LDs when the LDs were being stuffed elsewhere was a great result for the blues.
The much-derided Ashcroft polling was also very strong for the LDs in Sutton and Carshalton. That's not to sound complacent - the Conservatives will leave nothing to chance that money can't influence as we're hearing elsewhere.
I can't help but think donating £70 million to charities would win the Tories far more votes than offering people money to come along to talk about voting Conservative which sounds like seedy timeshare selling.
Nothing is certain in this world, but the seats I'd be almost certain the Lib Dems retain are Hallam, Yardley, Bermondsey, Leeds NW, Sutton, Carshalton, Twickenham, Colchester, Lewes, Colchester, Eastbourne, Southport, Yeovil, Orkney and Shetland, Ross, Westmoreland, Bath, and Cheltenham.
The remaining 26 seats will no doubt see Lib Dem losses, but some holds, too.
You think it certain that the LibDems will hold Sutton ?
If so then trends in outer London are even worse for the Conservatives than I thought.
I wouldn't call Chippenham or the Somerset constituencies write-offs either.
And I would expect Hazel Grove and Cheadle to be LibDem holds.
I forgot Hazel Grove. I'd put that in the almost-certain category. I'd make the Lib Dems slight favourites in Cheadle. Sutton defies electoral gravity.
Did I dream it or did betting Shrewdies on here too England for the cricket World Cup, the strategy being to go in again after we'd got the difficult game vs the Aussies out of the way?
And I swear I heard that the NZ conditions would suit broad and Anderson.... How'd they go?
Not for 25 an over as Finn did, but not good either.
Complete overhaul needed when we get back (soon), KP must be laughing his dick off.
The fact that Pietersen will be feeling smug makes it a million times worse
Still better thís than him in the team
Will it still be better if Scotland beat them?
Of course! I'd rather us lose every match than reinstate him. playing for England was only ever a career move for him, as it ian or our current captain
Well if you still insist on attempting to run what is effectively The Empire XI instead of sticking to players who are actually from England and Wales you may find this sort of mercenary behaviour will persist.
Yes I agree, I wouldn't have either of them in the team. I wouldn't allow non english coaches either., if we aren't good enough, we aren't good enough, why should rich countries be able to employ top foreigners to improve their international team?
I'd have a row test team for players from smaller non test playing nations to avoid the lunacy of plastic nationality. That way the best Irish, Dutch, Kenyan, afghani players can play at the top level without pretending to be something they aren't, and in a team of equals rather than being the star in a side that get walloped
The one point I agree with Mike on is the current strength of Labour's position and their under-estimate of it. What I would say is that it remains soft and is particularly vulnerable on the question of Miliband as PM (becoming more relevant given Putin's adventures), and apparent reliance on negative tactical anti-Tory votes. I suspect that Labour feel uncomfortable echoes of 1992 (and that Tories feel the same echoes). Are they right to? Perhaps so, but I certainly wouldn't bank on it. Miliband could easily be the next PM. If he does, he may well be the last Labour one ever though.
I can't help thinking that Farage is praying for a weak Milipede government.
The danger for UKIP would be the Conservatives moving right in Opposition.
Can we first up please dispel the myth that Hallam will be held because of Clegg
General Election 2001: Sheffield Hallam Party Candidate Votes % ±% Liberal Democrat Richard Allan 21,203 55.4 +4.1 Conservative John Paul Harthman 11,856 31.0 −2.1 Labour Miss Gillian Furniss 4,758 12.4 −1.1 UKIP Leslie George Arnott 429 1.1 N/A
General Election 1997:[n 6] Sheffield Hallam Party Candidate Votes % ±% Liberal Democrat Richard Allan 23,345 51.3 +18.2 Conservative Irvine Patnick 15,074 33.1 −12.4 Labour Stephen G. Conquest 6,147 13.5 −6.6 Referendum Party Ian S. Davidson 788 1.7 N/A Independent Philip Booler 125 0.3 N/A
The one point I agree with Mike on is the current strength of Labour's position and their under-estimate of it. What I would say is that it remains soft and is particularly vulnerable on the question of Miliband as PM (becoming more relevant given Putin's adventures), and apparent reliance on negative tactical anti-Tory votes. I suspect that Labour feel uncomfortable echoes of 1992 (and that Tories feel the same echoes). Are they right to? Perhaps so, but I certainly wouldn't bank on it. Miliband could easily be the next PM. If he does, he may well be the last Labour one ever though.
I can't help thinking that Farage is praying for a weak Milipede government.
The danger for UKIP would be the Conservatives moving right in Opposition.
Suggest Farage is more worried about a leadership push after the GE if he is out in the cold and Carswell is sitting on a fat majority.
@another_richard But who wants a "nerdy weed" to run the country? No one, if they are honest. However, rabid socialists will worship any shit if it gets them into power.
The one point I agree with Mike on is the current strength of Labour's position and their under-estimate of it. What I would say is that it remains soft and is particularly vulnerable on the question of Miliband as PM (becoming more relevant given Putin's adventures), and apparent reliance on negative tactical anti-Tory votes. I suspect that Labour feel uncomfortable echoes of 1992 (and that Tories feel the same echoes). Are they right to? Perhaps so, but I certainly wouldn't bank on it. Miliband could easily be the next PM. If he does, he may well be the last Labour one ever though.
I can't help thinking that Farage is praying for a weak Milipede government.
The danger for UKIP would be the Conservatives moving right in Opposition.
Surely UKIP leader wants a Tory government (of some description) and an in/out referendum in 2017? Not only is that their one key objective but Farage would be centre stage in such a poll.
Still think it's probably not a bad election to lose.
Expecting major economic woes down the line.
Whoever gets in could find themselves in the wilderness for some time after 2020. An SNP propped up Labour party with a deeply unpopular leader might actually face an existential crisis.
The one point I agree with Mike on is the current strength of Labour's position and their under-estimate of it. What I would say is that it remains soft and is particularly vulnerable on the question of Miliband as PM (becoming more relevant given Putin's adventures), and apparent reliance on negative tactical anti-Tory votes. I suspect that Labour feel uncomfortable echoes of 1992 (and that Tories feel the same echoes). Are they right to? Perhaps so, but I certainly wouldn't bank on it. Miliband could easily be the next PM. If he does, he may well be the last Labour one ever though.
I can't help thinking that Farage is praying for a weak Milipede government.
The danger for UKIP would be the Conservatives moving right in Opposition.
Surely UKIP leader wants a Tory government (of some description) and an in/out referendum in 2017? Not only is that their one key objective but Farage would be centre stage in such a poll.
The ideal result for UKIP, IMO, would be a weak Conservative minority government that couldn't deliver on that pledge.
"A big hope for the yellow team is that after five years of being constrained by the coalition it will be pitching on its own behalf with its very specific messages."
Applies equally if you substitute Blue for Yellow. And backed with a more credible chance of delivery.
Also the Lib Dems spent a reasonable amount of time slagging off policies they helped pass.....
oh and what has Cable said today about tuition fees?
I am loving the work of my Lib Dem Councillors, thankful of them helping push Labour from the levers of power in 2010, but....
Not exactly trustworthy are they (and I set a low bar for politicians of all stripes)
There's a classic misunderstanding of opinion polls in the middle of that article:
"He’s determined to beat his old friend Mackinlay, a fellow Eurosceptic and founding member of UKIP. A poll by Lord Ashcroft in November put the Tories one point ahead of UKIP on 33%, with Labour not far behind on 26%. The Conservatives seem to have made great gains since a Survation poll a year earlier put Labour first on 34%, UKIP on 30% and the Tories on 28%."
It's entirely possible that the only difference in the Conservative tally between the two polls cited is methodological. Indeed, it looks rather more likely to me that UKIP are the party that have improved in underlying reality between the first and second poll, given that Survation's methodology seems to be generally UKIP-friendlier than Lord Ashcroft's.
For those that missed it yesterday, I put up a post on the problems of interpreting UKIP's polling:
Still think it's probably not a bad election to lose.
Expecting major economic woes down the line.
Whoever gets in could find themselves in the wilderness for some time after 2020. An SNP propped up Labour party with a deeply unpopular leader might actually face an existential crisis.
They said that in 1979. Look what happened next.
Parties hoping to lose difficult elections deserve rebuke.
On topic, as an LD, I obviously hope OGH is right but it's not something the Party can or should rely on. The presence of UKIP will provide a second counterweight to the duopoly though it remains to be seen whether UKIP will have as much time to project its own line rather than having to deal with media-inspired noise about individual candidates and what they might or might not have said on Twitter.
I know I'm in a minority of one but I find Nick Clegg and the LDs talking a lot of sense on a range of issues just now and especially about the economy where he line of spending cuts and modest tax rises sounds more credible than anything either side of the duopoly has to offer.
Ironically and electorally (unfortunately) the Party is back where it was in the 50s and early 60s where it had the best range of policies but had little support. Back then, the Liberals were the small-state Party in contrast to Butskellism. The problem, which began with Steel and continued with later leaders was the Party struck down the blind alley of advocating popular policies which won votes but those policies came increasingly to lack credibility or stand up to scrutiny.
Under Kennedy, we became a one-trick pony though the opposition to the Iraq War was principled, entirely valid and did the Party great benefit electorally. The problem was in every other area policy development stagnated and we became Labour-lite (the Tories had similar problems after 1997).
The convergence of LD and Conservatives post 2005 made the Coalition possible (and it's a pity we don't hear so much of Cameron's inner "liberal conservative" these days) but as the Conservatives have drifted away from the initial tenets of the Coalition, a space has opened for the Party to craft a new direction which is still very much a work in progress but can be seen evolving.
Yes I agree, I wouldn't have either of them in the team. I wouldn't allow non english coaches either., if we aren't good enough, we aren't good enough, why should rich countries be able to employ top foreigners to improve their international team?
I'd have a row test team for players from smaller non test playing nations to avoid the lunacy of plastic nationality. That way the best Irish, Dutch, Kenyan, afghani players can play at the top level without pretending to be something they aren't, and in a team of equals rather than being the star in a side that get walloped
I do like the idea of a RoW side or perhaps a Rest of Europe, Rest of Asia, rest of Africa and The Americas sides. Eligibility is a bit of a problem at the moment and seems too tempting for England and Wales to resist.
This is probably worst for Scotland and Ireland, where any decent standard player risks being stolen by England. I think they eligibility rules really need changed, or allow dual eligibility for test and one day. The ruination of Gavin Hamilton's international career was very detrimental to Scotland's progress and Eoin Morgan's conversion to England will likely cost Ireland in the long run as well.
Yes I agree, I wouldn't have either of them in the team. I wouldn't allow non english coaches either., if we aren't good enough, we aren't good enough, why should rich countries be able to employ top foreigners to improve their international team?
I'd have a row test team for players from smaller non test playing nations to avoid the lunacy of plastic nationality. That way the best Irish, Dutch, Kenyan, afghani players can play at the top level without pretending to be something they aren't, and in a team of equals rather than being the star in a side that get walloped
Eoin Morgan's conversion to England will likely cost Ireland in the long run as well.
tom_watson @tom_watson 4s4 seconds ago The austerity chancellor "backs moves" for a new concert hall in cash strapped central London
We are of course all in it together after all
Apparently the acoustics in all of London's concert halls are pretty rubbish, because they were built before the science of acoustics came to maturity and weren't conveniently demolished during the War, as concert halls from similar eras were on the Continent.
There's a classic misunderstanding of opinion polls in the middle of that article:
"He’s determined to beat his old friend Mackinlay, a fellow Eurosceptic and founding member of UKIP. A poll by Lord Ashcroft in November put the Tories one point ahead of UKIP on 33%, with Labour not far behind on 26%. The Conservatives seem to have made great gains since a Survation poll a year earlier put Labour first on 34%, UKIP on 30% and the Tories on 28%."
It's entirely possible that the only difference in the Conservative tally between the two polls cited is methodological. Indeed, it looks rather more likely to me that UKIP are the party that have improved in underlying reality between the first and second poll, given that Survation's methodology seems to be generally UKIP-friendlier than Lord Ashcroft's.
For those that missed it yesterday, I put up a post on the problems of interpreting UKIP's polling:
I think the best way of punting on Ukip is to look at actual election results and unweighted data, then draw your own conclusions. Piggybacking the pollsters when they are guessing as much as we are is risky I think. As you say, their conclusions are so widely spread they are pretty worthless
I am sure some people wi look at the results and then backdate an opinion, but that's no use to people genuinely interested in making predictions
On topic: Yes, I think the LibDems could be the beneficiaries of pro-government swingback, or at least they could have been. Unfortunately, they have spent the last five years slagging off the coalition and looking miserable about the fact that they are in government, which I think will have stymied any hopes of getting much credit for the government's achievements.
They might get some help from negative tactical voting, however.
Yes I agree, I wouldn't have either of them in the team. I wouldn't allow non english coaches either., if we aren't good enough, we aren't good enough, why should rich countries be able to employ top foreigners to improve their international team?
I'd have a row test team for players from smaller non test playing nations to avoid the lunacy of plastic nationality. That way the best Irish, Dutch, Kenyan, afghani players can play at the top level without pretending to be something they aren't, and in a team of equals rather than being the star in a side that get walloped
I do like the idea of a RoW side or perhaps a Rest of Europe, Rest of Asia, rest of Africa and Americans sides. Eligibility is a bit of a problem at the moment and seems too tempting for England and Wales to resist.
This is probably worst for Scotland and Ireland, where any decent standard player risks being stolen by England. I think they eligibility rules really need changed, or allow dual eligibility for test and one day. The ruination of Gavin Hamilton's international career was very detrimental to Scotland's progress and Eoin Morgan's conversion to England will likely cost Ireland in the long run as well.
I don't think I will ever understand how ed Joyce has been dismissed by Boyd rankin playing for Ireland vs England and for England vs Ireland... Can anything be more ridiculous?
tom_watson @tom_watson 4s4 seconds ago The austerity chancellor "backs moves" for a new concert hall in cash strapped central London
We are of course all in it together after all
Apparently the acoustics in all of London's concert halls are pretty rubbish, because they were built before the science of acoustics came to maturity and weren't conveniently demolished during the War, as concert halls from similar eras were on the Continent.
"Former Foreign Secretary David Miliband, speaking from Erbil, Iraq, said: “It is great to hear that London is determined to get better and better. Music and architecture should make for a powerful mix in pushing the city forward.”"
Yes, of course, it's a step forward but wasn't the deficit supposed to have been halved by now ? I imagine Labour will be cherry-picking some of the gems from that June 2010 Emergency Budget in the next couple of months.
An awful lot of desperate Tory number-crunching trying to convince a dubious electorate that the economic good times are back and will only stay if they vote blue.
The jobs data looks and sounds marvellous but the productivity data is awful - companies are finding it easier to recruit people rather than invest in technological improvement but, and we can argue this ad infinitum, most British economic booms have been undermined by labour shortages which have fuelled inflation.
Indeed, I would argue we are actually de-industrialising and using more labour because it's cheap and plentiful.
I'd have a row test team for players from smaller non test playing nations to avoid the lunacy of plastic nationality. That way the best Irish, Dutch, Kenyan, afghani players can play at the top level without pretending to be something they aren't, and in a team of equals rather than being the star in a side that get walloped
A rest of the world Test team is such a fantastic idea.
Yes, of course, it's a step forward but wasn't the deficit supposed to have been halved by now ? I imagine Labour will be cherry-picking some of the gems from that June 2010 Emergency Budget in the next couple of months.
An awful lot of desperate Tory number-crunching trying to convince a dubious electorate that the economic good times are back and will only stay if they vote blue.
The jobs data looks and sounds marvellous but the productivity data is awful - companies are finding it easier to recruit people rather than invest in technological improvement but, and we can argue this ad infinitum, most British economic booms have been undermined by labour shortages which have fuelled inflation.
Indeed, I would argue we are actually de-industrialising and using more labour because it's cheap and plentiful.
Wrong kind of jobs, wrong kind of price falls and now wrong kind of tax receipts. Sigh..
@another_richard But who wants a "nerdy weed" to run the country? No one, if they are honest.
This is why Labour will lose in May. It is cruel I know, but people make their biggest decisions based on instinct, not reason - and of course it is likely to remain below the surface in opinion polls.
Not many will admit to not voting Labour to opinion polls because their leader seems a "nerdy weed"
Yes I agree, I wouldn't have either of them in the team. I wouldn't allow non english coaches either., if we aren't good enough, we aren't good enough, why should rich countries be able to employ top foreigners to improve their international team?
I'd have a row test team for players from smaller non test playing nations to avoid the lunacy of plastic nationality. That way the best Irish, Dutch, Kenyan, afghani players can play at the top level without pretending to be something they aren't, and in a team of equals rather than being the star in a side that get walloped
I do like the idea of a RoW side or perhaps a Rest of Europe, Rest of Asia, rest of Africa and Americans sides. Eligibility is a bit of a problem at the moment and seems too tempting for England and Wales to resist.
This is probably worst for Scotland and Ireland, where any decent standard player risks being stolen by England. I think they eligibility rules really need changed, or allow dual eligibility for test and one day. The ruination of Gavin Hamilton's international career was very detrimental to Scotland's progress and Eoin Morgan's conversion to England will likely cost Ireland in the long run as well.
I don't think I will ever understand how ed Joyce has been dismissed by Boyd rankin playing for Ireland vs England and for England vs Ireland... Can anything be more ridiculous?
If England and Wales still want's to take the best talent from Scotland and Ireland it should just give in and call itself Britain and Ireland instead of England (which must surely really annoy the Welsh).
Yes I agree, I wouldn't have either of them in the team. I wouldn't allow non english coaches either., if we aren't good enough, we aren't good enough, why should rich countries be able to employ top foreigners to improve their international team?
I'd have a row test team for players from smaller non test playing nations to avoid the lunacy of plastic nationality. That way the best Irish, Dutch, Kenyan, afghani players can play at the top level without pretending to be something they aren't, and in a team of equals rather than being the star in a side that get walloped
Eoin Morgan's conversion to England will likely cost Ireland in the long run as well.
and England..
Can’t get Cook back at the moment though. It’s lambing time on the farm!
Nicely timed for the Tories. Looks like tax take has increased a little bit more than the actual growth in economy at first glance.
It looks like revenue from the increase in self-employment is starting to feed through into the figures. They were £12.3bn for the month, up £1.7bn (though the ONS advise waiting for the aggregate figure for January and February).
Though we wait for confirmation with the February figures, it does look like the big increase in self-employment, that some thought was a con to massage down the unemployment numbers, is actually resulting in profitable business that is paying tax to the Exchequer.
On topic: Yes, I think the LibDems could be the beneficiaries of pro-government swingback, or at least they could have been. Unfortunately, they have spent the last five years slagging off the coalition and looking miserable about the fact that they are in government, which I think will have stymied any hopes of getting much credit for the government's achievements.
They might get some help from negative tactical voting, however.
In other words, if we had agreed with everything the Conservatives wanted since 2010 (which doesn't sound like any definition of the word "coalition" I've ever read) and slavishly followed it, we might look forward to a couple of point uptick in the campaign.
I don't think the LDs have been "slagging off the Coalition" in any greater sense that the constant anti-LD sniping of some Conservative backbenchers (and I don't see you condemning that). What the LDs have done is made sure some of the more ludicrous, divisive and ill-considered Conservative plans have been thwarted and if the electorate wish to thank us for that, so be it.
@another_richard But who wants a "nerdy weed" to run the country? No one, if they are honest.
This is why Labour will lose in May. It is cruel I know, but people make their biggest decisions based on instinct, not reason - and of course it is likely to remain below the surface in opinion polls.
Not many will admit to not voting Labour to opinion polls because their leader seems a "nerdy weed"
Pollsters don't usually require respondents to give a justification, and if they do it's after they ask the main voting intention question.
A lot of people here seem to think the way people rate the leaders will only kick in at the last minute, but I don't think we've really seen any evidence for that theory.
Yes I agree, I wouldn't have either of them in the team. I wouldn't allow non english coaches either., if we aren't good enough, we aren't good enough, why should rich countries be able to employ top foreigners to improve their international team?
I'd have a row test team for players from smaller non test playing nations to avoid the lunacy of plastic nationality. That way the best Irish, Dutch, Kenyan, afghani players can play at the top level without pretending to be something they aren't, and in a team of equals rather than being the star in a side that get walloped
I do like the idea of a RoW side or perhaps a Rest of Europe, Rest of Asia, rest of Africa and Americans sides. Eligibility is a bit of a problem at the moment and seems too tempting for England and Wales to resist.
This is probably worst for Scotland and Ireland, where any decent standard player risks being stolen by England. I think they eligibility rules really need changed, or allow dual eligibility for test and one day. The ruination of Gavin Hamilton's international career was very detrimental to Scotland's progress and Eoin Morgan's conversion to England will likely cost Ireland in the long run as well.
I don't think I will ever understand how ed Joyce has been dismissed by Boyd rankin playing for Ireland vs England and for England vs Ireland... Can anything be more ridiculous?
If England and Wales still want's to take the best talent from Scotland and Ireland it should just give in and call itself Britain and Ireland instead of England (which must surely really annoy the Welsh).
Morgan isn't British is he? Oh sorry you said 'and Ireland'
Look I agree, I don't like people playing for a country for a career choice, hence my Rest of World suggestion, which leaves the door open to play the their real country should they become a rest side, without compromise
Another plank slips from beneath Labour's campaign...
Yup. 3.2% increase in tax take YoY after stripping out the APF. Labour's idea of a taxless recovery did not come about. Coupled with low inflation and decent pay rises their economic argument lies in tatters.
Indeed, Mr. Pulpstar. Also quite close to my predictions, but as a lot of us were clustered around those sorts of figures I'd expect someone else to be nearer (if those forecasts came entirely true).
Comments
And I swear I heard that the NZ conditions would suit broad and Anderson.... How'd they go?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-31533028
This poll is weighted by Referendum recall. I suspect this will marginally (and increasingly over time) favour No as people's embarrassment at voting against Scotland leads to them lying about their 2014 vote.
The damage had already been done.
Surely, it should have been, "they continue to lead".
20+% majorities aren't the places you should be 'competing for', they should be fairly clear wins.
England 25/1 - missing a zero.
Complete overhaul needed when we get back (soon), KP must be laughing his dick off.
I would have asked TSE, but fear his assessment of Traitorous Pig Dogs is less than wholly objective.
helped to swell his majority at the last GE after the Tuition
fees pledge..both Hallam and Central have healthy student
populations...I should know I live in Central where the Libs
nearly got in last time
This time Central will end up Lab 1st Green 2nd ..Libs not even
on the radar
It seems to be wind-up TSE Friday. What fun!
Like being in free-fall without a parachute and then aiming to land in stinging nettles.
I'm quite comfortable that, without an external shock, we are on course for a Yes vote in 2018 at the latest. Unionists can't really do anything to prevent this. Only conceding FFA immediately after the next election might be a sufficient shock to stop this time scale but Labour will never do that and the Tories will struggle to control a majority when the Liberals are annihilated and the SNP hold the BoP.
Still better thís than him in the team
Cook may feel some schadenfreude too??
Question is, would it happen? There's been a long, slow decline the LD vote share all the way since the end of their initial collapse. At the start of 2011, the LDs were polling about 11.5%. By the start of 2013, they were around 10%. They're now at about 8.5%. It's true that the dynamics of the election may well change things: they'll get a little more coverage and may be able to differentiate themselves from the Tories more than at present (though how, specifically - and will it be credible after the experience of the last five years?)
In fact, there's an inherent contradiction in the Lib Dems' campaign strategy. Where they are in contention they're running wholly local campaigns based on the MP being a decent chap / lady. To then run a national campaign based on issues doesn't simply dilute that but actively undermines it as it reminds swing voters as to why they left the Lib Dems in the first place. On the other hand, to not run a meaningful national campaign would marginalise the Lib Dems further and place Clegg in an invidious position in the debates (if they happen).
The one point I agree with Mike on is the current strength of Labour's position and their under-estimate of it. What I would say is that it remains soft and is particularly vulnerable on the question of Miliband as PM (becoming more relevant given Putin's adventures), and apparent reliance on negative tactical anti-Tory votes. I suspect that Labour feel uncomfortable echoes of 1992 (and that Tories feel the same echoes). Are they right to? Perhaps so, but I certainly wouldn't bank on it. Miliband could easily be the next PM. If he does, he may well be the last Labour one ever though.
Richard Nabavi yesterday pointed out they got 11% in thurrock 2010 as evidence of lefty liberal types... I'd say that was nota not sandal wearers
You should know that most of the students were shunted out of Hallam when the Broomhill ward was moved to Sheffield Central.
And I'd hardly call a near 9,000 majority in 2005, as modest.
The write-offs are Withington, Brent Central, Dunbartonshire East, Edinburgh West, Burnley, Redcar, Solihull, Wells, Somerton & Frome, Mid-Dorset, Portsmouth South, Chippenham, Cardiff Central.
The remaining 26 seats will no doubt see Lib Dem losses, but some holds, too.
It would appear to be the SDP element that has gone back to the Labour Party (or greens) in a huff, whereas Liberals are still there. Trouble is that there arn't enough Liberals for 30 seats and most of those that do survive will be Social Democrats add odds with the remaining membership....
As ever, an extremely lucid piece by Martin Wolf in today's FT, outlining the difficult choices over tax and spend that the political parties are keeping quiet about. It is impossible, reading this, to see how the Tories will be able to keep to their announced spending plans. A 30+ % cut in defence?
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d6417fa8-b821-11e4-b6a5-00144feab7de.html?siteedition=uk#axzz3SH1zckbX
However, it would be possible that the candidates for other parties would in some other way become unelectable, thereby reducing the choice to that indicated.
Hopefully the BNP no longer have the funds to stand enough candidates to qualify for a Party Election Broadcast.
Now IME 99% of the time these turn out to be thinly disguised advertising scams; if you say you haven’t got life insurance, for exampler, then the floodgates open. TPS, incidentally doesn’t work because from the accents these calls are from abroad.
I wonder what happens when a genuine telephone poller calls someone like me who is fed up to the back teeth with these pests.
Of course if anyone knows how to stop these calls from abroad, I’d be grateful. The only way I can think of is to let the phone ring out, then check to see if it’s a genuine number. I don’t think our machines have caller display.
If so then trends in outer London are even worse for the Conservatives than I thought.
I wouldn't call Chippenham or the Somerset constituencies write-offs either.
And I would expect Hazel Grove and Cheadle to be LibDem holds.
I'm not sure why this doesn't get through to unionists or sceptics. NOTHING short of Full Fiscal Autonomy will derail the march to Independence. Scotland BELIEVES it is wealthier and wants to keep it's own revenues at the expense of rUK.
Whether Scotland is right or not is actually irrelevant now. The argument is lost. Devo-max, Home Rule, FFA, Federalism, call it what you will. It is the only remaining hope for the Union.
The Telegraph is in self destruct mode. Unreadable for 10+ years
The Guardian is in hyper hypocrisy mode as a tax avoider unsupportable
The Times is hampered by Murdoch ownership unsuportable
The FT is still schizophrenic, left leaning right reading
The Mirror should be closed by hacking
The Sun can't sell without p3
The Express finds a cold blast of Diana on the Moon (again)
The Mail lacks content but somehow sells and has an online offer that works
The Independent is it still printed? A ream of irrelevance.
The Metro is great to put under your coffee mug on the train to prevent drips
Now I understand why I don't get a daily paper any more. None of them offer trustworthy reporting or rigorous broad based intellectual challenge.
The austerity chancellor "backs moves" for a new concert hall in cash strapped central London
We are of course all in it together after all
And it was this threat which was behind the last minute fear factor vote for the suburban everyman John Major.
Now there might be many negative things to say about EdM but he comes across as a nerdy weed rather than a threat.
After years of hassle, we have gone Ex-directory, TPS and off the public electoral roll. We also don't answer any call that comes up as 'International' or 'unknown' on the Caller Display unless we are expecting something.
Frankly, any political party that had a workable solution to cold calling would walk the General Election.
http://www.buzzfeed.com/emilyashton/nigel-farage-takes-on-kent
http://electionsetc.com/2015/02/20/forecast-update-20-february-2015/
They will be almost wiped out in Scotland and they will lose a lot of votes where they have built up good 2nd places over the course of the last quarter of a century, but where they have incumbent MPs in England they will fight very hard and probably only lose a few.
Only 77 days to find out in any event.
The much-derided Ashcroft polling was also very strong for the LDs in Sutton and Carshalton. That's not to sound complacent - the Conservatives will leave nothing to chance that money can't influence as we're hearing elsewhere.
I can't help but think donating £70 million to charities would win the Tories far more votes than offering people money to come along to talk about voting Conservative which sounds like seedy timeshare selling.
some UKIP and some Labour --> Con
some Lab --> Lib
The key issue being how much and when. Can it hurry up and start moving please?
I'd have a row test team for players from smaller non test playing nations to avoid the lunacy of plastic nationality. That way the best Irish, Dutch, Kenyan, afghani players can play at the top level without pretending to be something they aren't, and in a team of equals rather than being the star in a side that get walloped
General Election 2001: Sheffield Hallam
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Liberal Democrat Richard Allan 21,203 55.4 +4.1
Conservative John Paul Harthman 11,856 31.0 −2.1
Labour Miss Gillian Furniss 4,758 12.4 −1.1
UKIP Leslie George Arnott 429 1.1 N/A
General Election 1997:[n 6] Sheffield Hallam
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Liberal Democrat Richard Allan 23,345 51.3 +18.2
Conservative Irvine Patnick 15,074 33.1 −12.4
Labour Stephen G. Conquest 6,147 13.5 −6.6
Referendum Party Ian S. Davidson 788 1.7 N/A
Independent Philip Booler 125 0.3 N/A
But who wants a "nerdy weed" to run the country? No one, if they are honest. However, rabid socialists will worship any shit if it gets them into power.
Expecting major economic woes down the line.
Whoever gets in could find themselves in the wilderness for some time after 2020. An SNP propped up Labour party with a deeply unpopular leader might actually face an existential crisis.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2958286/Labour-BAN-stealth-speed-cameras-motorways-forcing-painted-bright-yellow-drivers-them.html
oh and what has Cable said today about tuition fees?
I am loving the work of my Lib Dem Councillors, thankful of them helping push Labour from the levers of power in 2010, but....
Not exactly trustworthy are they (and I set a low bar for politicians of all stripes)
"He’s determined to beat his old friend Mackinlay, a fellow Eurosceptic and founding member of UKIP. A poll by Lord Ashcroft in November put the Tories one point ahead of UKIP on 33%, with Labour not far behind on 26%. The Conservatives seem to have made great gains since a Survation poll a year earlier put Labour first on 34%, UKIP on 30% and the Tories on 28%."
It's entirely possible that the only difference in the Conservative tally between the two polls cited is methodological. Indeed, it looks rather more likely to me that UKIP are the party that have improved in underlying reality between the first and second poll, given that Survation's methodology seems to be generally UKIP-friendlier than Lord Ashcroft's.
For those that missed it yesterday, I put up a post on the problems of interpreting UKIP's polling:
http://newstonoone.blogspot.com/2015/02/purples-reined-current-polling-and.html
Parties hoping to lose difficult elections deserve rebuke.
This comes out every single time.
Another plank slips from beneath Labour's campaign...
£6Bn less than last year.
£8.8 Bn surplus in Jan +£2.3Bn
On topic, as an LD, I obviously hope OGH is right but it's not something the Party can or should rely on. The presence of UKIP will provide a second counterweight to the duopoly though it remains to be seen whether UKIP will have as much time to project its own line rather than having to deal with media-inspired noise about individual candidates and what they might or might not have said on Twitter.
I know I'm in a minority of one but I find Nick Clegg and the LDs talking a lot of sense on a range of issues just now and especially about the economy where he line of spending cuts and modest tax rises sounds more credible than anything either side of the duopoly has to offer.
Ironically and electorally (unfortunately) the Party is back where it was in the 50s and early 60s where it had the best range of policies but had little support. Back then, the Liberals were the small-state Party in contrast to Butskellism. The problem, which began with Steel and continued with later leaders was the Party struck down the blind alley of advocating popular policies which won votes but those policies came increasingly to lack credibility or stand up to scrutiny.
Under Kennedy, we became a one-trick pony though the opposition to the Iraq War was principled, entirely valid and did the Party great benefit electorally. The problem was in every other area policy development stagnated and we became Labour-lite (the Tories had similar problems after 1997).
The convergence of LD and Conservatives post 2005 made the Coalition possible (and it's a pity we don't hear so much of Cameron's inner "liberal conservative" these days) but as the Conservatives have drifted away from the initial tenets of the Coalition, a space has opened for the Party to craft a new direction which is still very much a work in progress but can be seen evolving.
This is probably worst for Scotland and Ireland, where any decent standard player risks being stolen by England. I think they eligibility rules really need changed, or allow dual eligibility for test and one day. The ruination of Gavin Hamilton's international career was very detrimental to Scotland's progress and Eoin Morgan's conversion to England will likely cost Ireland in the long run as well.
I am sure some people wi look at the results and then backdate an opinion, but that's no use to people genuinely interested in making predictions
They might get some help from negative tactical voting, however.
An awful lot of desperate Tory number-crunching trying to convince a dubious electorate that the economic good times are back and will only stay if they vote blue.
The jobs data looks and sounds marvellous but the productivity data is awful - companies are finding it easier to recruit people rather than invest in technological improvement but, and we can argue this ad infinitum, most British economic booms have been undermined by labour shortages which have fuelled inflation.
Indeed, I would argue we are actually de-industrialising and using more labour because it's cheap and plentiful.
Not many will admit to not voting Labour to opinion polls because their leader seems a "nerdy weed"
If that situation reverses then de-industrialisation is inevitable.
Though we wait for confirmation with the February figures, it does look like the big increase in self-employment, that some thought was a con to massage down the unemployment numbers, is actually resulting in profitable business that is paying tax to the Exchequer.
I don't think the LDs have been "slagging off the Coalition" in any greater sense that the constant anti-LD sniping of some Conservative backbenchers (and I don't see you condemning that). What the LDs have done is made sure some of the more ludicrous, divisive and ill-considered Conservative plans have been thwarted and if the electorate wish to thank us for that, so be it.
Labour 282
Conservatives 281
SNP 39
Liberal Democrats 25
http://electionsetc.com/2015/02/20/forecast-update-20-february-2015/
Forecast GB Seats (with 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 281
Lab: 282
LD: 23
SNP: 40
PC: 3
UKIP: 3
Grn: 1
A lot of people here seem to think the way people rate the leaders will only kick in at the last minute, but I don't think we've really seen any evidence for that theory.
Look I agree, I don't like people playing for a country for a career choice, hence my Rest of World suggestion, which leaves the door open to play the their real country should they become a rest side, without compromise