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  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    Oh my life!

    Aus vs Bangladesh could be a washout meaning a point each and more woe for England!!

    That could be the nail in the coffin and typical - would mean we needed to beat SL. Brings back memories I was in S Africa for the World cup where England got booted out because they refused to play in Zimbabwe - I ended up with tickets for 3 matches featuring Kenya :(
    Groans

    The first match tonight is Pakistan vs Windies.. two unpredictable sorts, before lookin at the odds I thought it would be a 50/50 so I guess I'd marginally side w the Windies at odds against
  • antifrank said:

    Dair said:

    antifrank said:

    I particularly enjoyed one line in the Guardian article about Lib Dem private polling:

    "Party officials say they have conducted less polling in Scotland where the Lib Dems faces the risk of losing more than half of their 11 seats, including the one held by Danny Alexander, the chief secretary to the Treasury."

    How convenient.

    Half? Half?

    I can't get the smile off my face.

    Really. Half. Lol.
    "More than half". It's technically accurate.
    Yes 10, is more than half of 11 LOL
  • Blue_rog said:

    @Osborne budget giveaway: he does now have soom room for manoeuvre. I expect him to be highly tactical. Something that gives an immediate big political impact. Something 'Conservative' that forces Labour to deny or respond. Or to not be able to react to before the election. In other words, a game changer.

    Falling petrol prices have not led to a recovery in the Conservative polling position, so I rule that out. The two great unreformed (and most unpopular) taxes are inheritance tax and council tax.

    A rebranding/grading of council tax is possibly too risky that close to an election. But what if he links the two and kills two birds with one stone?

    One of the Conservatives most famous tactical moves was Osborne annoucing the IHT threshold would be lifted in 2007 to £1million pounds. It led to an immediate uplift in the polls, and forced Gordon Brown to call off the election.

    What if this time he implements it?

    Expect him to be responsible (so as not to dilute the deficit message) and also to be fair (so as not to repaint the Tories as the party of the rich) - he would do both if he announced new council tax bands for high end value wealthy homes.


    How about a decent uplift of the higher tax threshold? that would be popular (with me :-)

    I believe that will be the most likely bribe, I mean incentive, to the electorate on the basis that the money will be with people the quickest.

    My guess is an above inflation rise of the tax threshold together with an even bigger uplift of the higher tax threshold.

    IHT and council tax may well feature as manifesto issues if re-elected. The promise of couple of higher bands for council tax would certainly also grease the wheel for a potential link up with the Lib Dems again.
    I think he'd do it with immediate effect. The Tories are vulnerable from UKIP on not meeting their 2010GE pledges; for example, on immigration.

    This allows them to meet one of them they have so far not met, in this parliament, and just before the election too. It might re attract some waverers, and they can use the threat of an imminent Labour government coming in and repealing the cut (whether they've worked out their position or not) to rally more swing voters around them.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited February 2015
    Pulpstar said:
    Lost Cause is the lead track on one of my fav albums "Sea Change" by Beck... could talk about it all day and can play it on the guitar!!

    I reckon it will go down as an all time classic album

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_Change_(album)
  • TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    Oh my life!

    Aus vs Bangladesh could be a washout meaning a point each and more woe for England!!

    That could be the nail in the coffin and typical - would mean we needed to beat SL. Brings back memories I was in S Africa for the World cup where England got booted out because they refused to play in Zimbabwe - I ended up with tickets for 3 matches featuring Kenya :(
    I think we still finish 4th if we beat BANG, SCO and AFG, even if Aus vs BANG is a washout.
    Not overly confident of us beating those three to be honest however.
  • Blue_rog said:

    @Osborne budget giveaway: he does now have soom room for manoeuvre. I expect him to be highly tactical. Something that gives an immediate big political impact. Something 'Conservative' that forces Labour to deny or respond. Or to not be able to react to before the election. In other words, a game changer.

    Falling petrol prices have not led to a recovery in the Conservative polling position, so I rule that out. The two great unreformed (and most unpopular) taxes are inheritance tax and council tax.

    A rebranding/grading of council tax is possibly too risky that close to an election. But what if he links the two and kills two birds with one stone?

    One of the Conservatives most famous tactical moves was Osborne annoucing the IHT threshold would be lifted in 2007 to £1million pounds. It led to an immediate uplift in the polls, and forced Gordon Brown to call off the election.

    What if this time he implements it?

    Expect him to be responsible (so as not to dilute the deficit message) and also to be fair (so as not to repaint the Tories as the party of the rich) - he would do both if he announced new council tax bands for high end value wealthy homes.

    That'd allow him to say, if you're very wealthy we expect you to pay a little more of a contribution to fund local services whilst you're alive. However, if you're a middle-earner we will no longer confiscate your assets when you die.

    How about a decent uplift of the higher tax threshold? that would be popular (with me :-)
    Cameron has hinted at IHT already this year. I expect something on this. But maybe not in Budget but in manifesto.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited February 2015
    MikeK said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 32 (-1), Con 31 (-), LD 9 (-1), UKIP 17 (+2), Others 12 (+1). Tables here http://t.co/k5eWX3IspJ

    WAIT A MINUTE

    http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/OmOnline_Vote_20-02-2015_BPC.pdf

    UKIP unweighted 281 -> 244

    http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/OmOnline_Vote_05-01-2015_BPC.pdf

    UKIP unweighted 284 -> 165.
    Pulpstar said:

    Why have Populus suddenly decided UKIP will do better than they did before in the last month ?

    Look at the party ID weighting. The target for UKIP is now 6%, was 4%.

    Why 6% and not 8%? Or 2%?

    Feels like it is mostly a guess to me.
    #OblitusSumMe
    #Pulpstar
    You guys are are getting jittery, and panicking that UKIP are on the brink of another mighty surge, and that this Populus poll is the start of it.

    UKIP not peaking yet!
    I'm anti-UKIP politically, but part of me is quite looking forward to seeing them shake things up a bit at the election.

    I was critical of the party ID weighting used by Populus back when it led to low shares for UKIP. I think it is based on a faulty assumption, which they have as good as admitted by adjusting their target weights.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Cameron has hinted at IHT already this year.

    In order to get the electorate to believe jam tomorrow, there has to be some jam today. Not much, necessarily, but it has to be there, and at the lower end of the income scale.
  • Now for the greens that is partly offset by the fact that Natalie Bennett doesn't stand that much chance in Holborn so she can front up the Green campaign nationally.

    I think Neil is trying to convince Natalie that she has a real chance in Holborn and should devote more time and energy in the constituency.. ;-)
  • Hengists_GiftHengists_Gift Posts: 628
    edited February 2015

    Blue_rog said:

    @Osborne budget giveaway: he does now have soom room for manoeuvre. I expect him to be highly tactical. Something that gives an immediate big political impact. Something 'Conservative' that forces Labour to deny or respond. Or to not be able to react to before the election. In other words, a game changer.

    Falling petrol prices have not led to a recovery in the Conservative polling position, so I rule that out. The two great unreformed (and most unpopular) taxes are inheritance tax and council tax.

    A rebranding/grading of council tax is possibly too risky that close to an election. But what if he links the two and kills two birds with one stone?


    How about a decent uplift of the higher tax threshold? that would be popular (with me :-)

    I believe that will be the most likely bribe, I mean incentive, to the electorate on the basis that the money will be with people the quickest.

    My guess is an above inflation rise of the tax threshold together with an even bigger uplift of the higher tax threshold.

    IHT and council tax may well feature as manifesto issues if re-elected. The promise of couple of higher bands for council tax would certainly also grease the wheel for a potential link up with the Lib Dems again.
    I think he'd do it with immediate effect. The Tories are vulnerable from UKIP on not meeting their 2010GE pledges; for example, on immigration.

    This allows them to meet one of them they have so far not met, in this parliament, and just before the election too. It might re attract some waverers, and they can use the threat of an imminent Labour government coming in and repealing the cut (whether they've worked out their position or not) to rally more swing voters around them.
    Wouldn't the Libdems block it? It would be a powerful demonstration of how weak the Tories have been in government if the Libdems swansong was to vote down a budget on an issue which they strongly oppose? It would also be a powerful symbol of their new found independence referred to above.What is there in such circumstances that Osborne can use to buy Libdem support?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited February 2015

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    Oh my life!

    Aus vs Bangladesh could be a washout meaning a point each and more woe for England!!

    That could be the nail in the coffin and typical - would mean we needed to beat SL. Brings back memories I was in S Africa for the World cup where England got booted out because they refused to play in Zimbabwe - I ended up with tickets for 3 matches featuring Kenya :(
    I think we still finish 4th if we beat BANG, SCO and AFG, even if Aus vs BANG is a washout.
    Not overly confident of us beating those three to be honest however.
    I would not be so confident about beating Bangladesh. They beat NZ 4-0 and 3-0 in two separate series but in Bangladesh. They recently beat Zim 5-0.

    The match is at Adelaide. It might suit Shakib and Mahmudullah's bowling. They could drop one of their pacers and take another slow left arm bowler.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,025
    Pulpstar said:
    Jim McGovern is my MP and he has operated on the assumption that he has a seat for life for far too long. I was distinctly underwhelmed with his doorstep performance during the referendum too. It probably would not make any difference to the final outcome (except in scale) but Labour made a mistake in allowing him to stand again.

    I have been saying on here that I was tempted to vote tactically for Labour if it would stop the SNP taking the seat but I will not do so if they have no chance whatsoever. At the moment they are not coming close to persuading me they have a chance.
  • Now for the greens that is partly offset by the fact that Natalie Bennett doesn't stand that much chance in Holborn so she can front up the Green campaign nationally.

    I think Neil is trying to convince Natalie that she has a real chance in Holborn and should devote more time and energy in the constituency.. ;-)
    Perhaps but isn't London the one part of the country where Labour can confidently say they are doing well?

    ;-)
  • DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Jim McGovern is my MP and he has operated on the assumption that he has a seat for life for far too long. I was distinctly underwhelmed with his doorstep performance during the referendum too. It probably would not make any difference to the final outcome (except in scale) but Labour made a mistake in allowing him to stand again.

    I have been saying on here that I was tempted to vote tactically for Labour if it would stop the SNP taking the seat but I will not do so if they have no chance whatsoever. At the moment they are not coming close to persuading me they have a chance.
    Do you think that he is going to suffer the largest swing against him in the country?
  • Just messing about with May2015's seat calculator here. Perhaps Cameron should be ready to send "security forces" over the border to protect the interests of the Southern Scots?
  • Is it just me or is there a sense that the UKIP vote may have firmed up a little this week? And that after just one set speech from Farage.
  • Just messing about with May2015's seat calculator here. Perhaps Cameron should be ready to send "security forces" over the border to protect the interests of the Southern Scots?

    I think you're referring to Novoangliya.
  • antifrank said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Jim McGovern is my MP and he has operated on the assumption that he has a seat for life for far too long. I was distinctly underwhelmed with his doorstep performance during the referendum too. It probably would not make any difference to the final outcome (except in scale) but Labour made a mistake in allowing him to stand again.

    I have been saying on here that I was tempted to vote tactically for Labour if it would stop the SNP taking the seat but I will not do so if they have no chance whatsoever. At the moment they are not coming close to persuading me they have a chance.
    Do you think that he is going to suffer the largest swing against him in the country?
    Technically I expect Clacton to have the largest swing from 2010. Ignoring by-elections, surely Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath must be a runner?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Lost Cause is the lead track on one of my fav albums "Sea Change" by Beck... could talk about it all day and can play it on the guitar!!

    I reckon it will go down as an all time classic album

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_Change_(album)
    A friend of mine was married to guy who could have signed Beck in 1992 before a bidding war started. But didn't. Not quite like missing the Beatles, but the guy has had longevity.

    If you liked Sea Change, you'll like "Morning Phase" from last year too.
  • Blue_rog said:

    @Osborne budget giveaway: he does now have soom room for manoeuvre. I expect him to be highly tactical. Something that gives an immediate big political impact. Something 'Conservative' that forces Labour to deny or respond. Or to not be able to react to before the election. In other words, a game changer.

    Falling petrol prices have not led to a recovery in the Conservative polling position, so I rule that out. The two great unreformed (and most unpopular) taxes are inheritance tax and council tax.

    A rebranding/grading of council tax is possibly too risky that close to an election. But what if he links the two and kills two birds with one stone?


    How about a decent uplift of the higher tax threshold? that would be popular (with me :-)

    I believe that will be the most likely bribe, I mean incentive, to the electorate on the basis that the money will be with people the quickest.

    My guess is an above inflation rise of the tax threshold together with an even bigger uplift of the higher tax threshold.

    IHT and council tax may well feature as manifesto issues if re-elected. The promise of couple of higher bands for council tax would certainly also grease the wheel for a potential link up with the Lib Dems again.
    I think he'd do it with immediate effect. The Tories are vulnerable from UKIP on not meeting their 2010GE pledges; for example, on immigration.

    This allows them to meet one of them they have so far not met, in this parliament, and just before the election too. It might re attract some waverers, and they can use the threat of an imminent Labour government coming in and repealing the cut (whether they've worked out their position or not) to rally more swing voters around them.
    Wouldn't the Libdems block it? It would be a powerful demonstration of how weak the Tories have been in government if the Libdems swansong was to vote down a budget on an issue which they strongly oppose? It would also be a powerful symbol of their new found independence referred to above.What is there in such circumstances that Osborne can use to buy Libdem support?
    The Lib Dems could hang their hat on the higher council tax bands, and take ownership of that. I doubt all the opposition parties would unite to vote down budget measures just days before parliament dissolves and the election campaign starts either.
  • antifrank said:

    Just messing about with May2015's seat calculator here. Perhaps Cameron should be ready to send "security forces" over the border to protect the interests of the Southern Scots?

    I think you're referring to Novoangliya.
    Nah, Dumfries People's Republic :)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,025
    antifrank said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Jim McGovern is my MP and he has operated on the assumption that he has a seat for life for far too long. I was distinctly underwhelmed with his doorstep performance during the referendum too. It probably would not make any difference to the final outcome (except in scale) but Labour made a mistake in allowing him to stand again.

    I have been saying on here that I was tempted to vote tactically for Labour if it would stop the SNP taking the seat but I will not do so if they have no chance whatsoever. At the moment they are not coming close to persuading me they have a chance.
    Do you think that he is going to suffer the largest swing against him in the country?
    I think there will be quite a few fighting for that record but:

    Dundee is an area where the SNP are exceptionally well organised and numerous.
    Dundee East is now a very safe seat allowing resources to be allocated to the west of the City.
    Labour brought one of their campaigners from Glasgow to gee up the no campaign given the lack of talent locally.
    I have spoken to one of their list MSPs (who would have been a far better candidate) and she admitted life was "extremely tough".
    The Labour machine in Dundee was almost entirely union based and no longer seems to exist.
    They have lost control of the Council and not exactly set the heather alight in opposition.

    He has got to be a contender hasn't he?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    http://may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/?CON=33&LAB=33&LIB=9&UKIP=12&GRN=6.5&SCON=17&SLAB=26&SLIB=4&SUKIP=3&SGRN=3&SNP=42

    Labour minority on those numbers.

    Con + DUP + Lib Dem + North Down + UKIP = 319

    Lab + SNP + Plaid + Green + SDLP = 325.

    The Conservative group of parties is a bit more unlikely than the Labour one too imo.
  • antifrank said:

    Just messing about with May2015's seat calculator here. Perhaps Cameron should be ready to send "security forces" over the border to protect the interests of the Southern Scots?

    I think you're referring to Novoangliya.
    I don't want to change the world
    I'm not looking for a new England
  • chestnut said:

    Lab ELBOW lead so far this week still 1.5% inc. Populus and YG

    Any possibility of a phone-ELBOW and a web-ELBOW, Sunil?
    Non-YouGovs this week give Lab lead 1.5%
    YouGovs only Lab lead 1.4%
  • There were Opiniums the last three weeks in a row, so there may well be one this week.
  • antifrank said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Jim McGovern is my MP and he has operated on the assumption that he has a seat for life for far too long. I was distinctly underwhelmed with his doorstep performance during the referendum too. It probably would not make any difference to the final outcome (except in scale) but Labour made a mistake in allowing him to stand again.

    I have been saying on here that I was tempted to vote tactically for Labour if it would stop the SNP taking the seat but I will not do so if they have no chance whatsoever. At the moment they are not coming close to persuading me they have a chance.
    Do you think that he is going to suffer the largest swing against him in the country?
    Technically I expect Clacton to have the largest swing from 2010. Ignoring by-elections, surely Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath must be a runner?
    It could be tight. Lord Ashcroft found in September that Douglas Carswell would get 48% at the general election, which would represent a 24% swing from the Conservatives to UKIP. I think he'll probably do a bit better than that (Lord Ashcroft slightly underestimated his by-election result), but the largest swing in his Scottish polling was 27% in Dundee West and Motherwell & Wishaw.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    Is it just me or is there a sense that the UKIP vote may have firmed up a little this week? And that after just one set speech from Farage.

    It is just you , putting your hands over your ears and going LALALA at ICM putting them down at 9% for example .
  • MikeK said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 32 (-1), Con 31 (-), LD 9 (-1), UKIP 17 (+2), Others 12 (+1). Tables here http://t.co/k5eWX3IspJ

    WAIT A MINUTE

    http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/OmOnline_Vote_20-02-2015_BPC.pdf

    UKIP unweighted 281 -> 244

    http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/OmOnline_Vote_05-01-2015_BPC.pdf

    UKIP unweighted 284 -> 165.
    Pulpstar said:

    Why have Populus suddenly decided UKIP will do better than they did before in the last month ?

    Look at the party ID weighting. The target for UKIP is now 6%, was 4%.

    Why 6% and not 8%? Or 2%?

    Feels like it is mostly a guess to me.
    #OblitusSumMe
    #Pulpstar
    You guys are are getting jittery, and panicking that UKIP are on the brink of another mighty surge, and that this Populus poll is the start of it.

    UKIP not peaking yet!
    UKIP on an ELBOW of 15.2% this week so far - compared with 14.2% last week
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    edited February 2015

    antifrank said:

    No mention of Mid Dorset & N Poole either. You're using the information in the same way I am - looking for where isn't named.

    Lewes.
    Baker was well ahead in the Ashcroft second question, so I doubt he's behind when he is specifically named. Having a decent fall out with the Gov't won't have done him any harm either.

    That said given the Lib Dem national picture 2-9 doesn't tempt me !
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,133
    edited February 2015
    So far this week (inc. today's Sun YG and Populus) - LibDems on an ELBOW score of 8.3%, which, if sustained till Sunday, would be their highest weekly score since 24th August
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,025
    Jim McGovern was also one of the Scottish Labour MPs who thought he should vote against gay marriage in England in a bill which had no Scottish impact at all.

    He really doesn't have much going for him.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,848

    Is it just me or is there a sense that the UKIP vote may have firmed up a little this week? And that after just one set speech from Farage.

    If it has, I'd say the C4 docudrama has more to do with it.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited February 2015

    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Lost Cause is the lead track on one of my fav albums "Sea Change" by Beck... could talk about it all day and can play it on the guitar!!

    I reckon it will go down as an all time classic album

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_Change_(album)
    A friend of mine was married to guy who could have signed Beck in 1992 before a bidding war started. But didn't. Not quite like missing the Beatles, but the guy has had longevity.

    If you liked Sea Change, you'll like "Morning Phase" from last year too.
    I am just about to order that on iTunes! I have it on spotify but need to get it on the ipod for the car, there is no way round that is there?

    "Sea Change" is just amazing IMO... the lyrics and the texture of the music. Brilliant that an artist famous for one style of music makes a classic in another genre

    Obv was in a v complicated relationship around the time I was listening to it a lot ha!



  • Blue_rog said:

    @Osborne budget giveaway: he does now have soom room for manoeuvre. I expect him to be highly tactical. Something that gives an immediate big political impact. Something 'Conservative' that forces Labour to deny or respond. Or to not be able to react to before the election. In other words, a game changer.

    Falling petrol prices have not led to a recovery in the Conservative polling position, so I rule that out. The two great unreformed (and most unpopular) taxes are inheritance tax and council tax.

    A rebranding/grading of council tax is possibly too risky that close to an election. But what if he links the two and kills two birds with one stone?


    How about a decent uplift of the higher tax threshold? that would be popular (with me :-)

    I believe that will be the most likely bribe, I mean incentive, to the electorate on the basis that the money will be with people the quickest.

    My guess is an above inflation rise of the tax threshold together with an even bigger uplift of the higher tax threshold.

    IHT and council tax may well feature as manifesto issues if re-elected. The promise of couple of higher bands for council tax would certainly also grease the wheel for a potential link up with the Lib Dems again.
    I think he'd do it with immediate effect. The Tories are vulnerable from UKIP on not meeting their 2010GE pledges; for example, on immigration.

    This allows them to meet one of them they have so far not met, in this parliament, and just before the election too. It might re attract some waverers, and they can use the threat of an imminent Labour government coming in and repealing the cut (whether they've worked out their position or not) to rally more swing voters around them.
    Wouldn't the Libdems block it? It would be a powerful demonstration of how weak the Tories have been in government if the Libdems swansong was to vote down a budget on an issue which they strongly oppose? It would also be a powerful symbol of their new found independence referred to above.What is there in such circumstances that Osborne can use to buy Libdem support?
    The Lib Dems could hang their hat on the higher council tax bands, and take ownership of that. I doubt all the opposition parties would unite to vote down budget measures just days before parliament dissolves and the election campaign starts either.
    Why would LibDems block IHT increase, when so maybe of their seats they are defending are in areas where it is likely to be an issue?
  • Hengists_GiftHengists_Gift Posts: 628
    edited February 2015

    Blue_rog said:

    @Osborne budget giveaway: he does now have soom room for manoeuvre. I expect him to be highly tactical. Something that gives an immediate big political impact. Something 'Conservative' that forces Labour to deny or respond. Or to not be able to react to before the election. In other words, a game changer.

    How about a decent uplift of the higher tax threshold? that would be popular (with me :-)

    I think he'd do it with immediate effect. The Tories are vulnerable from UKIP on not meeting their 2010GE pledges; for example, on immigration.

    This allows them to meet one of them they have so far not met, in this parliament, and just before the election too. It might re attract some waverers, and they can use the threat of an imminent Labour government coming in and repealing the cut (whether they've worked out their position or not) to rally more swing voters around them.
    Wouldn't the Libdems block it? It would be a powerful demonstration of how weak the Tories have been in government if the Libdems swansong was to vote down a budget on an issue which they strongly oppose? It would also be a powerful symbol of their new found independence referred to above.What is there in such circumstances that Osborne can use to buy Libdem support?
    The Lib Dems could hang their hat on the higher council tax bands, and take ownership of that. I doubt all the opposition parties would unite to vote down budget measures just days before parliament dissolves and the election campaign starts either.
    Well they haven't 'hung their hats' on higher council tax bands yet and are still bangin' on about a Mansion Tax aren't they?

    And it doesn't need all the parties just most of the left of centre parties. I'd imagine they would line up in a second to vote down a Tory budget over such an issue. The SNP and Plaid I suspect would jump at the opportunity and presumably the Greens, Respect and SDLP would also oppose it and that's notionally 325 MP's. I agree it would be unprecedented but would the Tories really want to risk it? Even the speculation about it could be damaging to the Tories.

    A much safer bet would be to up the income tax allowance again. No question of getting negative class based publicity from that, the Libdems would be happy as sand boys and the Tories could take the credit for going above and beyond the committed figures claiming the success of the economy made it possible.

    It also goes some way to shooting a UKIP fox given UKIP consistently promise the highest increases in Income Tax allowance and have done for several years.
  • Blue_rog said:

    @Osborne budget giveaway: he does now have soom room for manoeuvre. I expect him to be highly tactical. Something that gives an immediate big political impact. Something 'Conservative' that forces Labour to deny or respond. Or to not be able to react to before the election. In other words, a game changer.

    Falling petrol prices have not led to a recovery in the Conservative polling position, so I rule that out. The two great unreformed (and most unpopular) taxes are inheritance tax and council tax.

    A rebranding/grading of council tax is possibly too risky that close to an election. But what if he links the two and kills two birds with one stone?


    How about a decent uplift of the higher tax threshold? that would be popular (with me :-)

    I believe that will be the most likely bribe, I mean incentive, to the electorate on the basis that the money will be with people the quickest.

    My guess is an above inflation rise of the tax threshold together with an even bigger uplift of the higher tax threshold.

    IHT and council tax may well feature as manifesto issues if re-elected. The promise of couple of higher bands for council tax would certainly also grease the wheel for a potential link up with the Lib Dems again.
    I think he'd do it with immediate effect. The Tories are vulnerable from UKIP on not meeting their 2010GE pledges; for example, on immigration.

    This allows them to meet one of them they have so far not met, in this parliament, and just before the election too. It might re attract some waverers, and they can use the threat of an imminent Labour government coming in and repealing the cut (whether they've worked out their position or not) to rally more swing voters around them.
    Wouldn't the Libdems block it? It would be a powerful demonstration of how weak the Tories have been in government if the Libdems swansong was to vote down a budget on an issue which they strongly oppose? It would also be a powerful symbol of their new found independence referred to above.What is there in such circumstances that Osborne can use to buy Libdem support?
    The Lib Dems could hang their hat on the higher council tax bands, and take ownership of that. I doubt all the opposition parties would unite to vote down budget measures just days before parliament dissolves and the election campaign starts either.
    Why would LibDems block IHT increase, when so maybe of their seats they are defending are in areas where it is likely to be an issue?
    If they're sensible, they might want to take co-ownership of it.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    antifrank said:

    Pulpstar said:

    http://ponyonthetories.blogspot.co.uk/ my thoughts on this "Named" polling

    If Lorely Burt hangs on in Solihull, it will be the best comeback since Lazarus. Quite apart from her ethereal majority, there's a councillor who is an ex-Lib Dem running as the Green candidate - the Greens didn't previously have a candidate in Solihull, and there are quite a few Greens on the council. I'm going to need a lot more than one poll from Survation to persuade me that she stands a sporting chance.
    Lorely Burt was regarded on here as a certainty to lose her seat at the 2010 GE . There were posts galore from Conservatives who said her win in 2005 was an aberration caused by a comatose and complacent local party . Don't also confuse Green activity in the constituency with that in the whole council area which includes Meriden parliamentary constituency .
    For the record , I also incorrectly forecast she would lose in 2010
  • Hengists_GiftHengists_Gift Posts: 628
    edited February 2015

    Blue_rog said:

    @Osborne budget giveaway: he does now have soom room for manoeuvre. I expect him to be highly tactical. Something that gives an immediate big political impact. Something 'Conservative' that forces Labour to deny or respond. Or to not be able to react to before the election. In other words, a game changer.

    Falling petrol prices have not led to a recovery in the Conservative polling position, so I rule that out. The two great unreformed (and most unpopular) taxes are inheritance tax and council tax.

    A rebranding/grading of council tax is possibly too risky that close to an election. But what if he links the two and kills two birds with one stone?

    How about a decent uplift of the higher tax threshold? that would be popular (with me :-)

    ..
    ..
    The Lib Dems could hang their hat on the higher council tax bands, and take ownership of that. I doubt all the opposition parties would unite to vote down budget measures just days before parliament dissolves and the election campaign starts either.
    Why would LibDems block IHT increase, when so maybe of their seats they are defending are in areas where it is likely to be an issue?
    Because they'd look like duplicitous hypocritical idiots who had just undermined a key election theme. From their website:

    In Government we have:

    Given a £700 tax cut to 24 million people, increasing to £825 in 2015. Now, we want to turn that into a £1,200 tax cut.

    Clawed back £9 billion from tax dodgers.

    Campaigned to create a Mansion Tax on the value of properties worth over £2 million.

    The Conservatives can't be trusted to deliver fair taxes by themselves. We blocked their plans to give millionaires a £270,000 inheritance tax cut and they refuse to create a mansion tax because they are worried it would affect their big donors.


    http://www.libdems.org.uk/tax
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,025
    The budget is going to be a very odd and partial exercise.

    There has to be an agreed platform which will fix duties etc for the coming year. The Tories and the Lib Dems will have to work together to ensure that there is a majority for these changes.

    There could then be a section on which agreement might be reached such as increases in personal allowances or higher CT bands for England and Wales. If agreement can be reached in these areas then the relevant resolutions can be passed on budget day. If not then Osborne will presumably set out what he would intend to do in the next Parliament.

    There will then be a section dealing with future plans and targets and this is almost certainly going to be exclusively tory and conditional on the election result.

    Ed will then stand up and explain how it is all just terrible and how they are going to reverse some trivia if they find money somewhere (really challenging speech for him by the way, in the absence of a clear and agreed policy framework the risk of hostages to fortune will be substantial).

    And the poor old Lib Dems will, as usual, be pretty much ignored. An opportunity really should be found on budget day itself for Danny to set out his thoughts but it is more likely to be the next day when the caravan has moved on.
  • Blue_rog said:

    @Osborne budget giveaway: he does now have soom room for manoeuvre. I expect him to be highly tactical. Something that gives an immediate big political impact. Something 'Conservative' that forces Labour to deny or respond. Or to not be able to react to before the election. In other words, a game changer.

    How about a decent uplift of the higher tax threshold? that would be popular (with me :-)

    Wouldn't the Libdems block it?
    The Lib Dems could hang their hat on the higher council tax bands, and take ownership of that. I doubt all the opposition parties would unite to vote down budget measures just days before parliament dissolves and the election campaign starts either.
    Well they haven't 'hung their hats' on higher council tax bands yet and are still bangin' on about a Mansion Tax aren't they?

    And it doesn't need all the parties just most of the left of centre parties. I'd imagine they would line up in a second to vote down a Tory budget over such an issue. The SNP and Plaid I suspect would jump at the opportunity and presumably the Greens, Respect and SDLP would also oppose it and that's notionally 325 MP's. I agree it would be unprecedented but would the Tories really want to risk it? Even the speculation about it could be damaging to the Tories.

    A much safer bet would be to up the income tax allowance again. No question of getting negative class based publicity from that, the Libdems would be happy as sand boys and the Tories could take the credit for going above and beyond the committed figures claiming the success of the economy made it possible.

    It also goes some way to shooting a UKIP fox given UKIP consistently promise the highest increases in Income Tax allowance and have done for several years.
    Why would it damage the Tories? If they preannouce it, and it's publically popular, and then days later the Lib Dems and Labour vote it down then they'd be the ones risking damage. Particularly if Osborne manages the political presentation effectively - he can set an almighty trap.

    The key word here is 'shoehorn' and the expiry on 5th April of the existing IHT threshold level. The Lib Dems will want something they can campaign on too, so expect a trade on higher property taxes for the living with cuts for the deceased.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    DavidL - I don't think Danny's thoughts are much different to the Tories in all honesty and come May 8th they won't matter much.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    Blue_rog said:

    @Osborne budget giveaway: he does now have soom room for manoeuvre. I expect him to be highly tactical. Something that gives an immediate big political impact. Something 'Conservative' that forces Labour to deny or respond. Or to not be able to react to before the election. In other words, a game changer.

    How about a decent uplift of the higher tax threshold? that would be popular (with me :-)

    Wouldn't the Libdems block it?
    The Lib Dems could hang their hat on the higher council tax bands, and take ownership of that. I doubt all the opposition parties would unite to vote down budget measures just days before parliament dissolves and the election campaign starts either.
    Well they haven't 'hung their hats' on higher council tax bands yet and are still bangin' on about a Mansion Tax aren't they?

    And it doesn't need all the parties just most of the left of centre parties. I'd imagine they would line up in a second to vote down a Tory budget over such an issue. The SNP and Plaid I suspect would jump at the opportunity and presumably the Greens, Respect and SDLP would also oppose it and that's notionally 325 MP's. I agree it would be unprecedented but would the Tories really want to risk it? Even the speculation about it could be damaging to the Tories.

    A much safer bet would be to up the income tax allowance again. No question of getting negative class based publicity from that, the Libdems would be happy as sand boys and the Tories could take the credit for going above and beyond the committed figures claiming the success of the economy made it possible.

    It also goes some way to shooting a UKIP fox given UKIP consistently promise the highest increases in Income Tax allowance and have done for several years.
    Why would it damage the Tories? If they preannouce it, and it's publically popular, and then days later the Lib Dems and Labour vote it down then they'd be the ones risking damage. Particularly if Osborne manages the political presentation effectively - he can set an almighty trap.

    The key word here is 'shoehorn' and the expiry on 5th April of the existing IHT threshold level. The Lib Dems will want something they can campaign on too, so expect a trade on higher property taxes for the living with cuts for the deceased.
    In the good old days , preannouncing budget measures used to be a resigning matter for a C of E , interesting that you should now think it should be part of effective political presentation .
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    This would help me personally but I would not thank the Tories by voting for them. I will be voting Labour.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,041
    surbiton said:

    This would help me personally but I would not thank the Tories by voting for them. I will be voting Labour.
    Well I never! ;)
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited February 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    http://may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/?CON=33&LAB=33&LIB=9&UKIP=12&GRN=6.5&SCON=17&SLAB=26&SLIB=4&SUKIP=3&SGRN=3&SNP=42

    Labour minority on those numbers.

    Con + DUP + Lib Dem + North Down + UKIP = 319

    Lab + SNP + Plaid + Green + SDLP = 325.

    The Conservative group of parties is a bit more unlikely than the Labour one too imo.

    I always find it interesting that the DUP which used to represent working class protestant areas only before the collapse of the Tory partner , the UUP, is assumed to be a coalition prospect with Conservative. Is there any evidence for that ? Also, why would anyone assume Lady Hermon would support the Tories ?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,712

    Blue_rog said:

    @Osborne budget giveaway: he does now have soom room for manoeuvre. I expect him to be highly tactical. Something that gives an immediate big political impact. Something 'Conservative' that forces Labour to deny or respond. Or to not be able to react to before the election. In other words, a game changer.

    How about a decent uplift of the higher tax threshold? that would be popular (with me :-)

    Wouldn't the Libdems block it?
    The Lib Dems could hang their hat on the higher council tax bands, and take ownership of that. I doubt all the opposition parties would unite to vote down budget measures just days before parliament dissolves and the election campaign starts either.
    Well they haven't 'hung their hats' on higher council tax bands yet and are still bangin' on about a Mansion Tax aren't they?

    And it doesn't need all the parties just most of the left of centre parties. I'd imagine they would line up in a second to vote down a Tory budget over such an issue. The SNP and Plaid I suspect would jump at the opportunity and presumably the Greens, Respect and SDLP would also oppose it and that's notionally 325 MP's. I agree it would be unprecedented but would the Tories really want to risk it? Even the speculation about it could be damaging to the Tories.

    A much safer bet would be to up the income tax allowance again. No question of getting negative class based publicity from that, the Libdems would be happy as sand boys and the Tories could take the credit for going above and beyond the committed figures claiming the success of the economy made it possible.

    It also goes some way to shooting a UKIP fox given UKIP consistently promise the highest increases in Income Tax allowance and have done for several years.
    Why would it damage the Tories? If they preannouce it, and it's publically popular, and then days later the Lib Dems and Labour vote it down then they'd be the ones risking damage. Particularly if Osborne manages the political presentation effectively - he can set an almighty trap.

    The key word here is 'shoehorn' and the expiry on 5th April of the existing IHT threshold level. The Lib Dems will want something they can campaign on too, so expect a trade on higher property taxes for the living with cuts for the deceased.
    I thought new Council Tax bands WERE part of LibDem policy!
  • Blue_rog said:

    @Osborne budget giveaway: he does now have soom room for manoeuvre. I expect him to be highly tactical. Something that gives an immediate big political impact. Something 'Conservative' that forces Labour to deny or respond. Or to not be able to react to before the election. In other words, a game changer.

    How about a decent uplift of the higher tax threshold? that would be popular (with me :-)

    Wouldn't the Libdems block it?
    The Lib Dems could hang their hat on the higher council tax bands, and take ownership of that. I doubt all the opposition parties would unite to vote down budget measures just days before parliament dissolves and the election campaign starts either.
    Well they haven't 'hung their hats' on higher council tax bands yet and are still bangin' on about a Mansion Tax aren't they?

    And it doesn't need all the parties just most of the left of centre parties. I'd imagine they would line up in a second to vote down a Tory budget over such an issue. The SNP and Plaid I suspect would jump at the opportunity and presumably the Greens, Respect and SDLP would also oppose it and that's notionally 325 MP's. I agree it would be unprecedented but would the Tories really want to risk it? Even the speculation about it could be damaging to the Tories.

    It also goes some way to shooting a UKIP fox given UKIP consistently promise the highest increases in Income Tax allowance and have done for several years.
    Why would it damage the Tories? If they preannouce it, and it's publically popular, and then days later the Lib Dems and Labour vote it down then they'd be the ones risking damage. Particularly if Osborne manages the political presentation effectively - he can set an almighty trap.

    The key word here is 'shoehorn' and the expiry on 5th April of the existing IHT threshold level. The Lib Dems will want something they can campaign on too, so expect a trade on higher property taxes for the living with cuts for the deceased.
    In the good old days , preannouncing budget measures used to be a resigning matter for a C of E , interesting that you should now think it should be part of effective political presentation .
    He annouces his intention in the budget on budget day, the vote is a few days later. Not an issue.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,041
    new thread....
  • Hengists_GiftHengists_Gift Posts: 628
    edited February 2015
    @Casino Royale

    Why would it damage the Tories? If they preannouce it, and it's publically popular, and then days later the Lib Dems and Labour vote it down then they'd be the ones risking damage. Particularly if Osborne manages the political presentation effectively - he can set an almighty trap.

    The key word here is 'shoehorn' and the expiry on 5th April of the existing IHT threshold level. The Lib Dems will want something they can campaign on too, so expect a trade on higher property taxes for the living with cuts for the deceased/


    Have you forgotten the omnishambles budget already?

    The keyword here is 'class'. If Labour can ensure that the Tories get virtually no C2, DE voters then you can forget a majority and probably kiss goodbye to largest party. Handing them the chance to bang on about the Tories and their 'millionaire's tax avoidance measures' is handing it to them on a plate.

    The Libdems are using it as an example of how the Tories are unfair on tax on their website. If they want any credibility at all at this election they are not going to back down on it. If they did it would indicate they had learned nothing from the Tuition fees debacle.

    Look I want to see IHT scrapped altogether but frankly if Tories want to invite a whole world of pain by trying to do something that has massive predictable class overtones to it before the election by all means go ahead. It will be reminiscent of the omnishambles budget furore all over again.

    At this stage when all the economic markers seem to be going the Tories way I'd leave it alone. Put it back in the manifesto and leave it for next time. But hey knowing Tory strategic thinking it will likely be the first thing Osborne announces when he stands up.

    PS And I don't think the 'Pay now so you have less not to be taxed later' idea will impress anyone who its intended to impress.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Casino

    The only petulant types on here are the very odd hordes of self-congratulatory PBTories who prefer anecdotes based on their own mates to polling. Mike is right: polling and analysis vs PB Tory wishful thinking.

    You got that argument from tim PBUH, and it's crap. You say "anecdote"because you know it is a boo-word in the specialised field of medical research, and try to contrast it with polling as if polling were analogous to formal medical studies. Polling asks a hypothetical question the answer to which is of no use at all, and is uniquely untestable - except for eve-of-election polls - so we have no idea what effect distance from election date has on polls. And that's before you get to issues like tactical answering to pollsters, and straightforward arithmetical cock ups of the Ashcroft kind. A relevant and credible anecdote can be just as compelling as a bit of polling data.

    I've met a lot of blokes in the pub recently who voted labour last time round, but are just waking up to the fact that ed, is, actually, too crap to vote for. They tell me they are still saying "labour" to the pollsters, but increasingly realise that they just won't be voting that way.
  • @Casino Royale

    Why would it damage the Tories? If they preannouce it, and it's publically popular, and then days later the Lib Dems and Labour vote it down then they'd be the ones risking damage. Particularly if Osborne manages the political presentation effectively - he can set an almighty trap.

    The key word here is 'shoehorn' and the expiry on 5th April of the existing IHT threshold level. The Lib Dems will want something they can campaign on too, so expect a trade on higher property taxes for the living with cuts for the deceased/


    Have you forgotten the omnishambles budget already?

    The keyword here is 'class'. If Labour can ensure that the Tories get virtually no C2, DE voters then you can forget a majority and probably kiss goodbye to largest party. Handing them the chance to bang on about the Tories and their 'millionaire's tax avoidance measures' is handing it to them on a plate.

    The Libdems are using it as an example of how the Tories are unfair on tax on their website. If they want any credibility at all at this election they are not going to back down on it. If they did it would indicate they had learned nothing from the Tuition fees debacle.

    Look I want to see IHT scrapped altogether but frankly if Tories want to invite a whole world of pain by trying to do something that has massive predictable class overtones to it before the election by all means go ahead. It will be reminiscent of the omnishambles budget furore all over again.

    At this stage when all the economic markers seem to be going the Tories way I'd leave it alone. Put it back in the manifesto and leave it for next time. But hey knowing Tory strategic thinking it will likely be the first thing Osborne announces when he stands up.

    PS And I don't think the 'Pay now so you have less not to be taxed later' idea will impress anyone who its intended to impress.

    IHT is not seen as a class thing and there's a wealth of evidence it is electorally popular. It is not the same as cutting income tax for those earning over £150k.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,500
    HYUFD said:

    Dair As you point out most of the SNP surge has come from Yes voters, and as Quebec proved in 1995 a surge in votes by the main nationalist party does not necessarily equate to a vote for independence! Of course post the election the Smith plans will be implemented too, including giving Holyrood income tax powers

    That is not giving any powers , it is just window dressing. It gives nothing if you cannot change it due to Westminster retaining all the real powers. Smith is on target to give nothing and will sow more seeds of unrest when the idiots who thought they were being offered something for voting No see they have been treated as fools.
  • Hengists_GiftHengists_Gift Posts: 628
    edited February 2015
    It sounds to me that there's a way to go yet before it's all sweetness and light in the Eurozone:

    As part of the deal Greece must provide a list of reforms based on its current bailout programme for assessment on Monday.

    This will be reviewed on Tuesday by the European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the European Commission.

    "The institutions will provide a first view whether this is sufficiently comprehensive to be a valid starting point for a successful conclusion of the (bailout) review," according to a eurozone statement.


    http://news.sky.com/story/1431332/eurozone-agrees-to-extend-greek-bailout
  • Interesting from May2015. Though it smacks a bit of "if you don't like these results, then we have others":

    http://may2015.com/featured/introducing-the-new-statesman-political-index-lib-dems-to-win-at-least-30-seats/

    They'll be stuffed if Mystic Meg asks for her crystal ball back.
  • Hengists_GiftHengists_Gift Posts: 628
    edited February 2015

    @Casino Royale

    Why would it damage the Tories? If they preannouce it, and it's publically popular, and ......higher property taxes for the living with cuts for the deceased/

    Have you forgotten the omnishambles budget already?

    The keyword here is 'class'. If Labour can ensure that the Tories get virtually no C2, DE voters then you can forget a majority and probably kiss goodbye to largest party. Handing them the chance to bang on about the Tories and their 'millionaire's tax avoidance measures' is handing it to them on a plate.

    The Libdems are using it as an example of how the Tories are unfair on tax on their website. If they want any credibility at all at this election they are not going to back down on it. If they did it would indicate they had learned nothing from the Tuition fees debacle.

    Look I want to see IHT scrapped altogether but frankly if Tories want to invite a whole world of pain by trying to do something that has massive predictable class overtones to it before the election by all means go ahead. It will be reminiscent of the omnishambles budget furore all over again.

    At this stage when all the economic markers seem to be going the Tories way I'd leave it alone. Put it back in the manifesto and leave it for next time. But hey knowing Tory strategic thinking it will likely be the first thing Osborne announces when he stands up.

    PS And I don't think the 'Pay now so you have less not to be taxed later' idea will impress anyone who its intended to impress.

    IHT is not seen as a class thing and there's a wealth of evidence it is electorally popular. It is not the same as cutting income tax for those earning over £150k.
    Well clearly the Libdems didn't get the memo. From their website:

    In Government we have:

    Given a £700 tax cut to 24 million people, increasing to £825 in 2015. Now, we want to turn that into a £1,200 tax cut.

    Clawed back £9 billion from tax dodgers.

    Campaigned to create a Mansion Tax on the value of properties worth over £2 million.

    The Conservatives can't be trusted to deliver fair taxes by themselves. We blocked their plans to give millionaires a £270,000 inheritance tax cut and they refuse to create a mansion tax because they are worried it would affect their big donors.


    http://www.libdems.org.uk/tax

    And you know how Labour will respond:

    http://labourlist.org/2015/01/osbornes-inheritance-tax-plans-prove-his-them-and-us-agenda/

    As I said I want it scrapped but the Tories would be daft to make that the centre piece of their last budget before the election. Labour and the Libdems would have a field day!
This discussion has been closed.