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  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Smarmeron said:

    A genuine question for the legal eagles.
    Are there different levels of admissible evidence in a libel trial? As in, something another court might not permit being used?

    Since it's balance of probabilities, hard to think so.

    IANAL.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    Scott_P said:

    Hasn't he said he'll repeat the comments outside Parliament?

    @BBCNewsnight: .@HarrietHarman says on #newsnight Ed Miliband will repeat his allegations against Lord Fink - http://bbc.in/1AonBxT
    Well put up or shut up time I guess...still wondering why Ed couldn't have repeated them to a pool interview this evening or even while in his jim jams via twitter.

    What's the betting he mumbles something or other vague and not what he said in the HoC. But job done I guess, if you like you leaders smeary.
    Lawyers and Counsel are likely clocking up a bill, whilst deliberating over a weasly 'get out' statement that doesn't necessarily repeat the exact allegation.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    viewcode said:

    Off topic, is anyone going to the "Predicting and Understanding the 2015 General Election" all-day conference hosted by the British Election Study at RIBA, in London, tomorrow?

    If so, I'll be there with a friend.

    Off to bed now, but vanilla me or post on here if you're around. And I'll try and find you to say hi during one of the breaks!

    I tried to get on in January but it was fully booked by then: I went on the waiting list but as there were over 120people on it at that point, no dice. May I ask you a personal favour? I want copies of the presentations and handouts, so can you take all the handouts that are provided and send me them and the links to the presentations? I am more than happy to pay you for your trouble. Reading them will count on my CPD.

    IIRC, last time they put stuff up on the 'net...
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2015
    Scott_P said:

    Speedy said:

    Mean while on planet Europe:

    Open Europe @OpenEurope · 15m 15 minutes ago
    Eurogroup presser already over. Impression is there's no agreement whatsoever, not even on how to proceed with negotiations. #Greece

    They took 6 hours so that they would't even agree on anything, even a statement.

    Hmmm...

    @BBCBreaking: Hope for deal on Greek debt with Eurozone by next Monday after "very good discussions" - Greece finance minister http://t.co/Qn96C4fDAB
    This poker game is getting as silly as this bugs bunny cartoon:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYPdQIcygsc
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @RodCrosby
    That blows the theory that Ed wanted sued, so he could use the security disc report as a possible defence.
    On the face of it he does appear very determined.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411

    Just took 2.7+ on EM in the "Prime Minister After Cameron" market. Incredible that this should be bigger than "Prime Minister After General Election"!

    2.7 !

    You swine !
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Smarmeron said:

    On the face of it he does appear very determined.

    On the face it he looks scared. He has had 12 hours to repeat his claims. What is he waiting for?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326
    surbiton said:

    Cyclefree said:

    surbiton said:

    I am slightly surprised by Tory tactics. If they think attacking Miliband on the right of people to avoid tax on the grounds that "it is legal" is equal in political judgement in saying it would be good to privatise the NHS because it would increase "efficiency".

    Also, getting a non dom tax avoider living in Monaco to head criticism of Labour's tax policy was indeed strange. Ed probably couldn't believe his luck. Quite rightly, he told him to f**k off !

    Before you get OGH into trouble, worth pointing out that Pessina is not a non-dom tax avoider. He is an Italian who has never lived in the UK and has never had any liability to pay UK income tax. The only country with the right to complain that by living in Monaco and not (I assume) paying Italian tax is ...... Italy.

    Milliband's insinuation that he was somehow avoiding UK tax was nasty, incoherent and not founded on any facts, much like Labour party policy these days.

    If Labour do form the government, the Civil Service will have to spend a lot of time teaching them the facts of life, starting with how tax law actually works.
    I don't recall mentioning anyone by name. Labour has every right to attack anyone who seeks to lecture us about our tax policy. Labour is not proposing Italy's or Monaco's tax policy.

    The S.O.B shut up pretty sharpish. Didn't he ?
    You don't have to name someone to defame them.

  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    I wonder if Justine would arrange his defence on the cheap?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,402
    edited February 2015
    RodCrosby said:

    viewcode said:

    Off topic, is anyone going to the "Predicting and Understanding the 2015 General Election" all-day conference hosted by the British Election Study at RIBA, in London, tomorrow?

    If so, I'll be there with a friend.

    Off to bed now, but vanilla me or post on here if you're around. And I'll try and find you to say hi during one of the breaks!

    I tried to get on in January but it was fully booked by then: I went on the waiting list but as there were over 120people on it at that point, no dice. May I ask you a personal favour? I want copies of the presentations and handouts, so can you take all the handouts that are provided and send me them and the links to the presentations? I am more than happy to pay you for your trouble. Reading them will count on my CPD.

    IIRC, last time they put stuff up on the 'net...
    I hope that is true, but fear that it is not. In my experience, whenever somebody puts something on the net it's abbreviated or metadata or links to a paysite. My offer to Casino_Royale is genuine
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Just took 2.7+ on EM in the "Prime Minister After Cameron" market. Incredible that this should be bigger than "Prime Minister After General Election"!

    Prices should be other way round shouldn't they??
  • perdix said:

    saddo said:

    If you ever wanted proof that the BBC is the broadcasting arm of The Guardian & the Labour Party, you just have to view their websites lead story now on Milibands pathetic "dodgy" claim.
    Utterly disgraceful coverage.

    Very true. And the BBC assistant political editor (or equiv) - he of the Tories returning the country back to Dickensian times - was smiling like a Cheshire cat before PMQs today, just as the Beeb announced "new" information. The Beeb enjoys putting the boot into the Tories and they work closely with The Guardian to do so. Remember the comment some years ago when a Beeb news editor asked what stories to run - he was told to take it from The Guardian. Nothing has changed. Today they are running a smear campaign. They ignore that this stuff occurred on Labour's watch and nothing was done about it.

    Not just today...Ed meets BBC bods and says he wants to weaponize the NHS...and what becomes the big story on the BBC, while attempting to never ever ever mention NHS in Wales. Rotherham, dont' mention the L word in basically every article. And the BBC / employees keep putting out warning about the uncertain future of the BBC etc if certain parties get into power.

    Anybody would think there was a GE coming up.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    The Conservatives could capture 11 of 15 Liberal Democrat seats in the southwest, according to analysis by a leading pollster, as David Cameron seeks to capitalise on the weakness of his coalition partners.

    Analysis of the polls in January found that Nick Clegg’s party could retain as few as three of their 15 seats in the southwest. The study by Peter Kellner, president of YouGov, shows that support for the Lib Dems in their heartland has plummeted from 35 per cent in 2010 to only 16 per cent in January in Yougov polls.
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4351461.ece
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Smarmeron said:

    @RodCrosby
    That blows the theory that Ed wanted sued, so he could use the security disc report as a possible defence.
    On the face of it he does appear very determined.

    Perhaps there is a political strategy to use a court drama as a partisan vote winner.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,402
    Speedy said:

    Scott_P said:

    Speedy said:

    Mean while on planet Europe:

    Open Europe @OpenEurope · 15m 15 minutes ago
    Eurogroup presser already over. Impression is there's no agreement whatsoever, not even on how to proceed with negotiations. #Greece

    They took 6 hours so that they would't even agree on anything, even a statement.

    Hmmm...

    @BBCBreaking: Hope for deal on Greek debt with Eurozone by next Monday after "very good discussions" - Greece finance minister http://t.co/Qn96C4fDAB
    This poker game is getting as silly as this bugs bunny cartoon:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYPdQIcygsc
    "Silly" left the rear-view mirror about ten miles back. We are now into OH FOR FUCK'S SAKE territory....:-(



  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326
    Smarmeron said:

    I wonder if Justine would arrange his defence on the cheap?

    Libel lawyers are not cheap. If he comes up with a statement which is not the same as in the HoC expect Fink to make much of it. Any change to make it libel proof will be a climb down.

    The fact that neither Harman nor Umunna (both of them lawyers) repeated the statements speaks volumes.

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326
    Speedy said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @RodCrosby
    That blows the theory that Ed wanted sued, so he could use the security disc report as a possible defence.
    On the face of it he does appear very determined.

    Perhaps there is a political strategy to use a court drama as a partisan vote winner.
    No chance of any court hearing before May.
  • isam said:

    Just took 2.7+ on EM in the "Prime Minister After Cameron" market. Incredible that this should be bigger than "Prime Minister After General Election"!

    Prices should be other way round shouldn't they??
    Surely.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2015
    Scott_P said:

    The Conservatives could capture 11 of 15 Liberal Democrat seats in the southwest, according to analysis by a leading pollster, as David Cameron seeks to capitalise on the weakness of his coalition partners.

    Analysis of the polls in January found that Nick Clegg’s party could retain as few as three of their 15 seats in the southwest. The study by Peter Kellner, president of YouGov, shows that support for the Lib Dems in their heartland has plummeted from 35 per cent in 2010 to only 16 per cent in January in Yougov polls.
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4351461.ece

    If the LD's retain only 3 seats in the SW then their total seat numbers would not be much greater than 12.
    I don't buy it, however if Lord A's constituency polls are a bit off (like 5% less LD), then I'll buy it.

    Goodnight.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Speedy
    Well, Harriet must have been in the loop as to what Ed's response would be?
    So it is not liable to have sudden whim that made him decide to repeat it outside of the commons?
    If it was a whim, then he will be well and truly f8cked
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited February 2015

    isam said:

    Just took 2.7+ on EM in the "Prime Minister After Cameron" market. Incredible that this should be bigger than "Prime Minister After General Election"!

    Prices should be other way round shouldn't they??
    Surely.
    I guess the only downside is that if cameron wins a second term, you are tying your money up for another five years as they won't pay ed as a loser until someone replaces Cameron
  • isam said:

    isam said:

    Just took 2.7+ on EM in the "Prime Minister After Cameron" market. Incredible that this should be bigger than "Prime Minister After General Election"!

    Prices should be other way round shouldn't they??
    Surely.
    I guess the only downside is that if cameron wins a second term, you are tying your money up for another five years as they won't pay ed as a loser until someone replaces Cameron
    Yeah, but I'm backing Ed. I don't mind having losses tied up ;-)
  • Artist said:

    Having the referendum in 2016 would give the policy a new lease of life and the immediacy may make it more appealing to business and casual voters..

    It's a tricky one. Those who say that the referendum will lead to uncertainty and therefore damage to investment are correct, which is a strong argument for not having too long a lead time. In addition, a shorter time would help focus the minds of our EU friends and fits better with the German and French elections. On the other hand it gives even less time for renegotiation.
    Especially as Cameron hasn't told us what specifically he wants to re-negotiate.
  • After that Commons performance, Ed M is starting to really tick me off. By all rights I ought to detest politically influential millionaire types, and now he's making me feel sorry for one. I hope that for decency's sake he either pulls his allegation, or at least turns out to have some better ammunition than what he's spent so far.

    Fortunately this problem is self-correcting, because judging from reports on the household finances chez Miliband, I have been provoked onto the safe territory of disliking a politically influential millionaire type. So all is well with the world.
  • Incidentally, have the Tories been shelling out for some particularly obnoxious SEO? Two of the five google autocomplete suggestions I get for "miliband" are "miliband bacon sandwich" and "miliband beggar".
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Going to leave up £20 overnight to back Ed at 2.76, hopefully someone won't have a clue.

    Tbh on the Betfair markets it's normally a decent punt.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Just took 2.7+ on EM in the "Prime Minister After Cameron" market. Incredible that this should be bigger than "Prime Minister After General Election"!

    Prices should be other way round shouldn't they??
    Surely.
    I guess the only downside is that if cameron wins a second term, you are tying your money up for another five years as they won't pay ed as a loser until someone replaces Cameron
    Yeah, but I'm backing Ed. I don't mind having losses tied up ;-)
    Actually sorry I'm talking rubbish there as it wouldn't make any difference as it would be the same SA having a loser
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Just took 2.7+ on EM in the "Prime Minister After Cameron" market. Incredible that this should be bigger than "Prime Minister After General Election"!

    Prices should be other way round shouldn't they??
    Surely.
    I guess the only downside is that if cameron wins a second term, you are tying your money up for another five years as they won't pay ed as a loser until someone replaces Cameron
    Yeah, but I'm backing Ed. I don't mind having losses tied up ;-)
    What price ukip win 2 or more seats starting "Ro" ?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited February 2015
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Just took 2.7+ on EM in the "Prime Minister After Cameron" market. Incredible that this should be bigger than "Prime Minister After General Election"!

    Prices should be other way round shouldn't they??
    Surely.
    I guess the only downside is that if cameron wins a second term, you are tying your money up for another five years as they won't pay ed as a loser until someone replaces Cameron
    Yeah, but I'm backing Ed. I don't mind having losses tied up ;-)
    What price ukip win 2 or more seats starting "Ro" ?
    Not got my spreadsheet here, but must have a shot. All the more so if Her Maj decides to bestow Clacton with the same honour as Wootton Bassett.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,914
    CasinoRoyale On present polls Labour is ahead in England on seats and votes and the same in Wales, but it will still be the SNP who are likely to hold the balance of power
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Speedy said:

    Scott_P said:

    The Conservatives could capture 11 of 15 Liberal Democrat seats in the southwest, according to analysis by a leading pollster, as David Cameron seeks to capitalise on the weakness of his coalition partners.

    Analysis of the polls in January found that Nick Clegg’s party could retain as few as three of their 15 seats in the southwest. The study by Peter Kellner, president of YouGov, shows that support for the Lib Dems in their heartland has plummeted from 35 per cent in 2010 to only 16 per cent in January in Yougov polls.
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4351461.ece
    If the LD's retain only 3 seats in the SW then their total seat numbers would not be much greater than 12.
    I don't buy it, however if Lord A's constituency polls are a bit off (like 5% less LD), then I'll buy it.

    Goodnight.

    I've been saying that other than Yeovil, there won't be a LibDem hold in the South-west until you get to Bristol.... The yellow snow is melting was I think the expression I used.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Co-operative Bank is to take the axe to its dwindling branch network, with 57 more to close and more employees expected to lose their jobs.

    The bank, which failed a key test of its financial strength imposed by the Bank of England in December, is under pressure to cut costs as it shrinks to a safer institution under orders from regulators. The self-styled ethical bank, now largely owned by hedge funds, announced branch reductions of 68 last year, taking its network down to around 230, but the management believe that more surgery is now needed, it is understood.
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/industries/banking/article4351490.ece

    Is that who Bill Somebody works for now?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    HYUFD said:

    CasinoRoyale On present polls Labour is ahead in England on seats and votes and the same in Wales, but it will still be the SNP who are likely to hold the balance of power

    Labour is NOT ahead in England on votes, not sure about seats.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    edited February 2015
    Scott_P said:

    Co-operative Bank is to take the axe to its dwindling branch network, with 57 more to close and more employees expected to lose their jobs.

    The bank, which failed a key test of its financial strength imposed by the Bank of England in December, is under pressure to cut costs as it shrinks to a safer institution under orders from regulators. The self-styled ethical bank, now largely owned by hedge funds, announced branch reductions of 68 last year, taking its network down to around 230, but the management believe that more surgery is now needed, it is understood.
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/industries/banking/article4351490.ece

    Is that who Bill Somebody works for now?

    I noticed that was it last week (or the week before), the announced even stricter limits on who they will invest their money with...at the rate they are going basically the only people the Co-Op will be able to put money into is organic free range hamster breeders in Peru.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2015
    It's unlikely Labour are ahead in England on votes. They'd need a 5.7% swing and the overall swing is 3%. Scotland wouldn't make that much of a difference.
  • Good evening, my fellow Dodgy PBers :)

    Nice cartoon, Marf!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Scott_P said:

    The Conservatives could capture 11 of 15 Liberal Democrat seats in the southwest, according to analysis by a leading pollster, as David Cameron seeks to capitalise on the weakness of his coalition partners.

    Analysis of the polls in January found that Nick Clegg’s party could retain as few as three of their 15 seats in the southwest. The study by Peter Kellner, president of YouGov, shows that support for the Lib Dems in their heartland has plummeted from 35 per cent in 2010 to only 16 per cent in January in Yougov polls.
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4351461.ece

    The 11 could be Chippenham, Wells, Somerton & Frome, Taunton Deane, Torbay, St Ives, Devon North, Dorset Mid & Poole North, St Ives, St Austell & Newquay, Cornwall North.

    Seats probably staying with the LDs would be Cheltenham, Thornbury & Yate, Bath, Yeovil.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Just took 2.7+ on EM in the "Prime Minister After Cameron" market. Incredible that this should be bigger than "Prime Minister After General Election"!

    Prices should be other way round shouldn't they??
    Surely.
    I guess the only downside is that if cameron wins a second term, you are tying your money up for another five years as they won't pay ed as a loser until someone replaces Cameron
    Yeah, but I'm backing Ed. I don't mind having losses tied up ;-)
    What price ukip win 2 or more seats starting "Ro" ?
    Dunno but they'd be shorter than 10s if they were Ashcroft polled in Rochford & SE :D
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,914
    Pulpstar Yes they are, yougov tonight has Labour ahead by 10% in London, 4% in the Midlands and 17% in the North, the Tories only lead in the South, and even their 18% lead there does not prevent Labour leading in England overall
    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/klk1qgpw4w/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-100215.pdf
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2015
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar Yes they are, yougov tonight has Labour ahead by 10% in London, 4% in the Midlands and 17% in the North, the Tories only lead in the South, and even their 18% lead there does not prevent Labour leading in England overall
    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/klk1qgpw4w/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-100215.pdf

    This is going to be a major problem for the polls IMO if they keep predicting Labour ahead in England. I don't believe it'll happen. I don't believe they're ahead now either if the overall Labour lead is just 1 point.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar Yes they are, yougov tonight has Labour ahead by 10% in London, 4% in the Midlands and 17% in the North, the Tories only lead in the South, and even their 18% lead there does not prevent Labour leading in England overall
    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/klk1qgpw4w/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-100215.pdf

    You need to take the last 10 yougovs or so.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,914
    Pulpstar The trend is clear as OGH has frequently pointed out, Labour leads in England
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,914
    AndyJS Labour is on 30% in Scotland with yougov, 13% behind the SNP and 5% behind their UK wide total of 35%, if it wasn't for Scotland therefore Labour would presently be heading for a majority
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,914
    Indeed, on Feb 7th OGH showed how an opinium poll had Labour 2% ahead in England, whereas in 2010 the Tories were 11% in front
    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/02/07/the-tories-need-to-be-getting-a-lot-closer-to-the-2010-result-in-england-if-theyre-to-have-any-chance-of-winning-most-seats/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    The North 21.6 44.5
    North West 24.0 45.1
    Yorks/Humber 30.0 35.8
    Wales 21.1 39.5
    West Midlands 34.1 34.5
    East Midlands 34.1 35.5
    Anglia 42.5 23.1
    South West 38.3 19.0
    London 29.5 39.9
    South East 45.0 19.5

    That's what I get from Electoral Calculus
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @HYUFD
    The irony of Scotland saving England from a Labour majority?
  • Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar Yes they are, yougov tonight has Labour ahead by 10% in London, 4% in the Midlands and 17% in the North, the Tories only lead in the South, and even their 18% lead there does not prevent Labour leading in England overall
    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/klk1qgpw4w/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-100215.pdf

    You need to take the last 10 yougovs or so.
    It's simple logic. If they are tied overall (which poll-of-polls etc. suggest they basically are), and Labour lead the Tories in Scotland and Wales, the Tories must be a fraction ahead in England.
  • HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar Yes they are, yougov tonight has Labour ahead by 10% in London, 4% in the Midlands and 17% in the North, the Tories only lead in the South, and even their 18% lead there does not prevent Labour leading in England overall
    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/klk1qgpw4w/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-100215.pdf

    4% in the Midlands and Wales
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar Yes they are, yougov tonight has Labour ahead by 10% in London, 4% in the Midlands and 17% in the North, the Tories only lead in the South, and even their 18% lead there does not prevent Labour leading in England overall
    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/klk1qgpw4w/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-100215.pdf

    4% in the Midlands and Wales
    Labour will do well in... London I think.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The Tories will win the popular vote in the Midlands quite comfortably IMO.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS Labour is on 30% in Scotland with yougov, 13% behind the SNP and 5% behind their UK wide total of 35%, if it wasn't for Scotland therefore Labour would presently be heading for a majority

    Just doesn't seem right to me. Anyway I expect things to change a lot during the campaign.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,914
    Pulpstar So Labour ahead in the North, North West, Yorkshire, Wales, the West Midlands, the East Midlands and London, the Tories ahead only in Anglia, the South West and South East
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Smarmeron said:

    @HYUFD
    The irony of Scotland saving England from a Labour majority?

    I expect a massive, massive Lib Dem recovery in the next parliament if Miliband is propped up by the SNP.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,914
    Smarmeron Indeed, especially after all the indyref talk of how Labour could not win without Scotland, now seems it cannot win only as a result of Scotland
  • HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar Yes they are, yougov tonight has Labour ahead by 10% in London, 4% in the Midlands and 17% in the North, the Tories only lead in the South, and even their 18% lead there does not prevent Labour leading in England overall
    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/klk1qgpw4w/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-100215.pdf

    4% in the Midlands and Wales
    Why have they lumped the Midlands with Wales??
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    edited February 2015
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar So Labour ahead in the North, North West, Yorkshire, Wales, the West Midlands, the East Midlands and London, the Tories ahead only in Anglia, the South West and South East

    I expect it'll go

    North, Northwest, Wales, London Labour

    Yorkshire Narrow Labour

    West Mids TCTC

    East Mids Narrow Conservative

    Anglia, SW, SE Conservative.

    Overall:

    Conservative.
  • HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar Yes they are, yougov tonight has Labour ahead by 10% in London, 4% in the Midlands and 17% in the North, the Tories only lead in the South, and even their 18% lead there does not prevent Labour leading in England overall
    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/klk1qgpw4w/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-100215.pdf

    4% in the Midlands and Wales
    Why have they lumped the Midlands with Wales??
    Presumably they consider Wales on its own as too small to weight to. Annoying, though.
  • HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar Yes they are, yougov tonight has Labour ahead by 10% in London, 4% in the Midlands and 17% in the North, the Tories only lead in the South, and even their 18% lead there does not prevent Labour leading in England overall
    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/klk1qgpw4w/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-100215.pdf

    4% in the Midlands and Wales
    Why have they lumped the Midlands with Wales??
    Presumably they consider Wales on its own as too small to weight to. Annoying, though.
    Edit: that's clearly not right as they weight to it on the final page. Dunno then.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar So Labour ahead in the North, North West, Yorkshire, Wales, the West Midlands, the East Midlands and London, the Tories ahead only in Anglia, the South West and South East

    I expect it'll go

    North, Northwest, Wales, London Labour

    Yorkshire Narrow Labour

    West Mids TCTC

    East Mids Narrow Conservative

    Anglia, SW, SE Conservative.

    Overall:

    Conservative.
    Augurs well for Rochford...

    Matthew Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ)
    11/02/2015 18:53
    Ukip is launching its campaign tomorrow. In Essex. And in the key seat of Castle Point -> m.echo-news.co.uk/news/11783540.…
  • We should be having a ComRes/Indy on Sunday poll this week.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,914
    Pulpstar The North clear Labour, London clear Labour, West Midlands and East Midlands narrow Labour, Anglia, SE, SW, Tory

    At present overall Labour
  • TomTom Posts: 273
    I think both PB Tories and Labs are looking at the fragmentation of voting as a short term phenomenon after which there will be reversion to previous two party dominance.

    If the SNP as 'natural party of Government' in Scotland happens and Plaid eventually get wise and replace the flat earther with a more plausible leader, we could quite easily end up in a situation like Spain where the nationalist parties take part in co-alitions with either party based on the maximum they can extract and with little sentiment for left/right politics. Much easier for them than the Lib Dems to enter into a co-alition with the 'hated enemy' if it can be portrayed back home as getting one over on the English. PR (also supported by UKIP) would effectively make it permanent as no 'English' party would be likely to get an 'English' majority let alone a UK one.

    In those circumstances i suspect most English people would rather they went away which looks like the SNPs current (short) long game.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Interesting news I've had campaign literature , a small paper on fact from Lee Rowley PPC for NE Derbyshire (Cons) - my ward was 2.5k votes lab 1k Ukip 0.8k Con so it clearly indicates a big effort
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,914
    Tom Only in tight elections, the BQ in Canada also has regularly won 40-50 seats
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,914
    TissuePrice As Pulpstar has pointed out electoral calculus has Labour ahead in both the East and West Midlands
  • TomTom Posts: 273
    Agreed but are we now in an era of tight elections? If Labour loses Scottish hegemony its hard for them to get a working majority, similarly the Tories have yet to find a way of bringing together white pensioners with younger (and browner) voters - 40% plus for either of them looks a pipe dream.

    Like Dan Hodges et al I'm (politically) a child of the 80s - where the Tories always pulled it out of the bag due to labour inadequacy and being seen as economically sound. That's why we're all (even most diehard Labourites) convinced of swingback and potential Tory majority, but this may actually be a new world we need to get used to.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,040
    Evening everyone. What was all the big betting excitement about?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,914
    Tom As a child of the nineties and permanent New Labour victories I have a different perspective, Labour may not win outright, but nor will the Tories because of UKIP, LD, SNP, Green, DUP combinations are all possible, but if the mood swings back enough then clear victories are possible again, though I do not see either Cameron nor Miliband achieving it. Night
  • Is there not a problem in taking the regional breaks and even the England break seriously because the poll is weighted as a whole for the UK and not weighted to ensure demographic accuracy across regions. Therefore there is a significant risk of there being considerable inaccuracy in the regional breaks.

    Furthermore it probably is increasingly skewed because there are now three minor parties (Greens, SNP, UKIP) whose vote shares are considerably higher than they were in 2010 or whenever the last political weightings were taken and as a result the political weighting in polls like Yougov are probably somewhat out of sync. For example given Labour's decline in Scotland is there not a risk of an implied compensating increase in Labour's weighted figure in England which could well distort the English figure?

    Personally, I think there is a element of hit and hope in the national figures from each pollsters these days because we are in unexplored waters let alone in regional breaks which I do not believe are correctly weighted.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    edited February 2015
    RobD said:

    Evening everyone. What was all the big betting excitement about?

    Evening Rob - if you're still up line 1982 on your spreadsheet (ie sample size 2056) is Populus, not YouGov/The Sun - but the numbers are all correct - you just need to change the name.

    The excitement is there is a MORI out tomorrow which has been described as a "corker".
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,040
    MikeL said:

    RobD said:

    Evening everyone. What was all the big betting excitement about?

    Evening Rob - if you're still up line 1982 on your spreadsheet (ie sample size 2056) is Populus, not YouGov/The Sun - but the numbers are all correct - you just need to change the name.

    The excitement is there is a MORI out tomorrow which has been described as a "corker".
    Ever vigilant. Thank you!

    Hm, I'm very wary of twitter rumors about an exciting poll. On previous occasions it has made a damp squib look exciting.
  • Speedy said:

    Mean while on planet Europe:

    Open Europe @OpenEurope · 15m 15 minutes ago
    Eurogroup presser already over. Impression is there's no agreement whatsoever, not even on how to proceed with negotiations. #Greece

    They took 6 hours so that they would't even agree on anything, even a statement.

    Allegedly they thought they'd agreed a statement, half the people involved went home, then the Greek finance minister phoned Athens to confirm and they killed it.

    I guess this how a democracy plays the famous North Korean Crazy Fearsome Cripple Gambit.
    http://blogs.ft.com/brusselsblog/2015/02/12/the-almost-agreed-eurogroup-statement-on-greece/
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited February 2015
    There is one point in PMQS where the camera catches Ed

    Sorry from what I saw it was bulging eyes and absolute terror as he perched right on the end of his seat.

    It just was


    Ed's. A dud even Balls knows it
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    edited February 2015
    Moses_ said:

    There is one point in PMQS where the camera catches Ed

    Sorry from what I saw it was bulging eyes and absolute terror as he perched right on the end of his seat.

    It just was


    Ed's. A dud even Balls knows it

    Tried to post up a link and it wouldn't work. Wanted to say I'm concerned about YG's panel base approach. Will be good to see a poll from one that isn't using that system.

    http://www.research-live.com/opinion/online-surveys-need-handling-with-care/4012684.article
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Moses_
    At a press conference sometime today, we will probably find out if JackW is right about Ed.
    It's put up or shut up time for him.
    Possibly this is the usual labour car crash, but if you watch PMQ's, Ed reads the question three times and then delivers it precisely.
This discussion has been closed.