Coalition finds itself "not guilty" (shock result there)
"A separate coalition motion was approved pointing out that "while the release of information pertaining to malpractice between 2005 to 2007 by individual HSBC account holders was public knowledge, at no point were ministers made aware of individual cases due to taxpayer confidentiality or made aware of leaked information suggesting wrongdoing by HSBC itself" and notes "that this Government has specifically taken action to get back money lost in Swiss bank accounts".
Ipsos MORI is in the same ballpark as Lord Ashcroft, so I suspect that's a fair Conservative lead. If so, that would mean the Conservatives led with three out of four telephone pollsters.
Ipsos MORI is in the same ballpark as Lord Ashcroft, so I suspect that's a fair Conservative lead. If so, that would mean the Conservatives led with three out of four telephone pollsters.
Maybe the polling lead finally falling into line with the PM approval forecast?
Ipsos MORI is in the same ballpark as Lord Ashcroft, so I suspect that's a fair Conservative lead. If so, that would mean the Conservatives led with three out of four telephone pollsters.
Could be a big Labour lead.
Could be a major change in the leader ratings.
But more likely it is the Greens in third place, which fits the definition of corker.
As Shadow Secretary of State for Business, Chuka has to build relationships with the people Ed Miliband is insulting.
As Shadow Secretary of State for Business, one of the chosen ones to replace Ed when he loses, Chuka has to build relationships with the people Ed Miliband is insulting.
Ipsos MORI is in the same ballpark as Lord Ashcroft, so I suspect that's a fair Conservative lead. If so, that would mean the Conservatives led with three out of four telephone pollsters.
Could be a big Labour lead.
Could be a major change in the leader ratings.
But more likely it is the Greens in third place, which fits the definition of corker.
Greens in third place would be more like "meh". The Greens have had their fun, but they're not going above 7% or so, on average. A big Labour lead would be a corker, but that doesn't seem to be how things Ar moving.
Ipsos MORI is in the same ballpark as Lord Ashcroft, so I suspect that's a fair Conservative lead. If so, that would mean the Conservatives led with three out of four telephone pollsters.
Could be a big Labour lead.
Could be a major change in the leader ratings.
But more likely it is the Greens in third place, which fits the definition of corker.
Hmm I have no idea bout the poll but Labour most seats, Labour most votes was at 4.3 on Betfair and that price looked very very wrong so I took all £2 of it.
How is it clear that last night's YouGov was an outlier? That may equally be true of the 1% Tory lead it came up with a day earlier.
You need to check your sarcasm meter.
Last month you said UKIP on 18% was an outlier when there were 4 or 5 18%s in a week.. when I mentioned it you told me I didn't know how to look at statistics, which is a bit worrying as it is my job
How is it clear that last night's YouGov was an outlier? That may equally be true of the 1% Tory lead it came up with a day earlier.
You need to check your sarcasm meter.
Last month you said UKIP on 18% was an outlier when there 4 or 5 18%s in a week.. when I mentioned it you told me I didn't know how to look at statistics, which is a bit worrying as it is my job
My comment applied to YouGov.
Tell me how many times they've hit 18 since then with YouGov?
How is it clear that last night's YouGov was an outlier? That may equally be true of the 1% Tory lead it came up with a day earlier.
You need to check your sarcasm meter.
Last month you said UKIP on 18% was an outlier when there 4 or 5 18%s in a week.. when I mentioned it you told me I didn't know how to look at statistics, which is a bit worrying as it is my job
My comment applied to YouGov.
Tell me how many times they've hit 18 since then with YouGov?
Wouldn't know, don't really follow it that closely
How is it clear that last night's YouGov was an outlier? That may equally be true of the 1% Tory lead it came up with a day earlier.
You need to check your sarcasm meter.
Last month you said UKIP on 18% was an outlier when there 4 or 5 18%s in a week.. when I mentioned it you told me I didn't know how to look at statistics, which is a bit worrying as it is my job
My comment applied to YouGov.
Tell me how many times they've hit 18 since then with YouGov?
Wouldn't know, don't really follow it that closely
They haven't hit 18% with YouGov after I said 18% with YouGov was an outlier.
The severance pay MPs get is a disgrace IMO. Nice to know Patrick Hall has already spent the £54,000 he received in 2010 on losing his seat in Bedford. Mike Hancock is on course to get it if he stands as an independent in Portsmouth South.
How is it clear that last night's YouGov was an outlier? That may equally be true of the 1% Tory lead it came up with a day earlier.
You need to check your sarcasm meter.
Last month you said UKIP on 18% was an outlier when there 4 or 5 18%s in a week.. when I mentioned it you told me I didn't know how to look at statistics, which is a bit worrying as it is my job
My comment applied to YouGov.
Tell me how many times they've hit 18 since then with YouGov?
Wouldn't know, don't really follow it that closely
They haven't hit 18% with YouGov after I said 18% with YouGov was an outlier.
Oh so an outlier means the highest out of a weeks polls does it? I thought it was one that was a long way outside the range
EDIT: Actually I think you are wrong to say they haven't hit 18% since you called the 18% an outlier
I am not surprised at Labour's tactics today. This is the party that sought to smear Cameron's wife and child and Osborne's wife.
To me that was despicable. Seems they haven't changed.
"Labour is nothing if not a moral crusade........"
They really are hypocritical pond life.
I'm not fearing a Labour government, but I was taken with this point from this morning:
They seem to regard the support of non-Tories as an entitlement
which is something I think is very true, and something which gets my back up about Labour more than happens with other parties. In their defence, as it is generally expected that the people who dislike the Tories do so more intensely, on average, than those who dislike Labour, it would be hard for the Tories to develop a sense of entitlement about non-Labour people being 'expected' to vote for them, because the narrative is that it happens less. I recall being really annoyed in 2010 with the assumption that as I had voted LD I must be part of the anti-Tory majority who must surely have felt betrayed by the Coalition.
Granted, about half of those voted LD then did feel so immediately, and another quarter or so of that original amount have since disappeared as well, so it is not as though there is >no basis for the entitlement, but I think it goes a little far.
For partisan Tories, someone voting other than Tory is just a mistake. For partisan Labourites, voting other than Labour, if you are not a Tory, is a betrayal of the left. At least, the extremists would say so.
How is it clear that last night's YouGov was an outlier? That may equally be true of the 1% Tory lead it came up with a day earlier.
You need to check your sarcasm meter.
Last month you said UKIP on 18% was an outlier when there 4 or 5 18%s in a week.. when I mentioned it you told me I didn't know how to look at statistics, which is a bit worrying as it is my job
My comment applied to YouGov.
Tell me how many times they've hit 18 since then with YouGov?
Wouldn't know, don't really follow it that closely
They haven't hit 18% with YouGov after I said 18% with YouGov was an outlier.
Oh so an outlier means the highest out of a weeks polls does it? I thought it was one that was a long way outside the range
No. I explained at the time what I meant at the time. Look up average and standard deviation. It might help you.
The severance pay MPs get is a disgrace IMO. Nice to know Patrick Hall has already spent the £54,000 he received in 2010 on losing his seat in Bedford. Mike Hancock is on course to get it if he stands as an independent in Portsmouth South.
Pay an remuneration of MPs is a really tricky one. Too much and they are troughing, too little and it becomes the purview of the rich only.
How is it clear that last night's YouGov was an outlier? That may equally be true of the 1% Tory lead it came up with a day earlier.
You need to check your sarcasm meter.
Last month you said UKIP on 18% was an outlier when there 4 or 5 18%s in a week.. when I mentioned it you told me I didn't know how to look at statistics, which is a bit worrying as it is my job
My comment applied to YouGov.
Tell me how many times they've hit 18 since then with YouGov?
Wouldn't know, don't really follow it that closely
They haven't hit 18% with YouGov after I said 18% with YouGov was an outlier.
Oh so an outlier means the highest out of a weeks polls does it? I thought it was one that was a long way outside the range
EDIT: Actually I think you are wrong to say they haven't hit 18% since you called the 18% an outlier
Of course we only know what the actual outliers were when we have the election and plot an adjusted moving average looking back...
Honestly I do hope there is a Tory lead of more than 1 pt - it's happened once or twice I think, but it's always entertaining when it does, and if it could be sustained makes the GE more interesting a fight as well, so there's not much downside to it. Frankly I'm getting bored with my own opinion that Labour are on course for a majority so long as they shore up Scotland a bit, which in fairness is not guaranteed.
I am not surprised at Labour's tactics today. This is the party that sought to smear Cameron's wife and child and Osborne's wife.
To me that was despicable. Seems they haven't changed.
"Labour is nothing if not a moral crusade........"
They really are hypocritical pond life.
I'm not fearing a Labour government, but I was taken with this point from this morning:
They seem to regard the support of non-Tories as an entitlement
which is something I think is very true, and something which gets my back up about Labour more than happens with other parties. In their defence, as it is generally expected that the people who dislike the Tories do so more intensely, on average, than those who dislike Labour, it would be hard for the Tories to develop a sense of entitlement about non-Labour people being 'expected' to vote for them, because the narrative is that it happens less. I recall being really annoyed in 2010 with the assumption that as I had voted LD I must be part of the anti-Tory majority who must surely have felt betrayed by the Coalition.
Granted, about half of those voted LD then did feel so immediately, and another quarter or so of that original amount have since disappeared as well, so it is not as though there is >no basis for the entitlement, but I think it goes a little far.
For partisan Tories, someone voting other than Tory is just a mistake. For partisan Labourites, voting other than Labour, if you are not a Tory, is a betrayal of the left. At least, the extremists would say so.
Far too many pb Tories regard voting Labour as a sign of corruption: since no-one sane would vote Labour, the party must be dependent on a client state of dole scroungers and public sector workers.
'Far too many pb Tories regard voting Labour as a sign of corruption: since no-one sane would vote Labour, the party must be dependent on a client state of dole scroungers and public sector workers'.
I am not surprised at Labour's tactics today. This is the party that sought to smear Cameron's wife and child and Osborne's wife.
To me that was despicable. Seems they haven't changed.
"Labour is nothing if not a moral crusade........"
They really are hypocritical pond life.
I'm not fearing a Labour government, but I was taken with this point from this morning:
They seem to regard the support of non-Tories as an entitlement
which is something I think is very true, and something which gets my back up about Labour more than happens with other parties. In their defence, as it is generally expected that the people who dislike the Tories do so more intensely, on average, than those who dislike Labour, it would be hard for the Tories to develop a sense of entitlement about non-Labour people being 'expected' to vote for them, because the narrative is that it happens less. I recall being really annoyed in 2010 with the assumption that as I had voted LD I must be part of the anti-Tory majority who must surely have felt betrayed by the Coalition.
Granted, about half of those voted LD then did feel so immediately, and another quarter or so of that original amount have since disappeared as well, so it is not as though there is >no basis for the entitlement, but I think it goes a little far.
For partisan Tories, someone voting other than Tory is just a mistake. For partisan Labourites, voting other than Labour, if you are not a Tory, is a betrayal of the left. At least, the extremists would say so.
Far too many pb Tories regard voting Labour as a sign of corruption: since no-one sane would vote Labour, the party must be dependent on a client state of dole scroungers and public sector workers.
Which is an unfair view in its own right, granted, although while thinking voting for your opponent is a sign of idiocy is unfortunate, I do place it a smidgeon below thinking people who vote differently to you are betraying your side (rather than betraying your country, which both sides may well believe) as though the vote belongs with them, in terms of offensiveness. But it's a subjective gradient of silly opinions I think, and the stages are close together.
Has Miliband repeated his Fink accusation outside the safe confines of Parliament yet?
I don't think he will dare. I wonder if this is a big mistake by EdM.
Miliband accused Fink of involvement in tax avoidance, not of personally evading taxes. Though I can see why Fink is angry, I suspect CCHQ could do without headlines dominated by Tory tax cheats.
The severance pay MPs get is a disgrace IMO. Nice to know Patrick Hall has already spent the £54,000 he received in 2010 on losing his seat in Bedford. Mike Hancock is on course to get it if he stands as an independent in Portsmouth South.
But maybe it's worth remembering that Patrick was classed by the Telegraph during the Parliament expenses scandal as---I think the term was---an "angel". That is to say, they didn't find any fiddling by him.
Has Miliband repeated his Fink accusation outside the safe confines of Parliament yet?
I don't think he will dare. I wonder if this is a big mistake by EdM.
Miliband accused Fink of involvement in tax avoidance, not of personally evading taxes. Though I can see why Fink is angry, I suspect CCHQ could do without headlines dominated by Tory tax cheats.
It was pretty obvious what Miliband was trying to smear Fink with, and it wasn't avoidance.
You've just done the same, with use of the phrase 'tax cheats'.
How is it clear that last night's YouGov was an outlier? That may equally be true of the 1% Tory lead it came up with a day earlier.
You need to check your sarcasm meter.
Last month you said UKIP on 18% was an outlier when there 4 or 5 18%s in a week.. when I mentioned it you told me I didn't know how to look at statistics, which is a bit worrying as it is my job
My comment applied to YouGov.
Tell me how many times they've hit 18 since then with YouGov?
Wouldn't know, don't really follow it that closely
They haven't hit 18% with YouGov after I said 18% with YouGov was an outlier.
Oh so an outlier means the highest out of a weeks polls does it? I thought it was one that was a long way outside the range
No. I explained at the time what I meant at the time. Look up average and standard deviation. It might help you.
Haha its ok I certainly don't need your help!
By the way you are wrong.. they have got 18% since you said it was an outlier.. almost makes me feel bad to say it
Don't make stuff up to win an argument this time please though, it was embarrassing to catch you out on the bet you never had
Has Miliband repeated his Fink accusation outside the safe confines of Parliament yet?
Not yet, it will take the lawyers are fair bit of time to figure out how Miliband can repeat what he said in the HoC without repeating what he said in the HoC.
Has Miliband repeated his Fink accusation outside the safe confines of Parliament yet?
I don't think he will dare. I wonder if this is a big mistake by EdM.
Miliband accused Fink of involvement in tax avoidance, not of personally evading taxes. Though I can see why Fink is angry, I suspect CCHQ could do without headlines dominated by Tory tax cheats.
It was pretty obvious what Miliband was trying to smear Fink with, and it wasn't avoidance.
Ipsos MORI is in the same ballpark as Lord Ashcroft, so I suspect that's a fair Conservative lead. If so, that would mean the Conservatives led with three out of four telephone pollsters.
Maybe the polling lead finally falling into line with the PM approval forecast?
Do you think this makes sense of Cameron's comment in the HoC? Seemed an amazingly confident assertion: "that's why you're losing"? Or was that maybe bluster 'cos Miliband got under his skin.
Has Miliband repeated his Fink accusation outside the safe confines of Parliament yet?
Not yet, it will take the lawyers are fair bit of time to figure out how Miliband can repeat what he said in the HoC without repeating what he said in the HoC.
Great idea to run up a decent legal bill with an expensive GE to pay for in a few months. £500 an hour for a Senior Partner at a top flight defamation firm plus Counsel costs. Kerching.
Has Miliband repeated his Fink accusation outside the safe confines of Parliament yet?
I don't think he will dare. I wonder if this is a big mistake by EdM.
Miliband accused Fink of involvement in tax avoidance, not of personally evading taxes. Though I can see why Fink is angry, I suspect CCHQ could do without headlines dominated by Tory tax cheats.
It was pretty obvious what Miliband was trying to smear Fink with, and it wasn't avoidance.
Labour back in to 21. My guess is 2 polls. One shows neck-and-neck or even slight Lab lead. The other is going to be big news somehow. NB that's guesswork not insider trading.
Has Miliband repeated his Fink accusation outside the safe confines of Parliament yet?
I don't think he will dare. I wonder if this is a big mistake by EdM.
If Milliband repeats it and Fink sues the story will go away until any court hearing or settlement, long after the election. So the smear remains.
If Milliband doesn't, Fink can do nothing and the smear remains.
Cameron could raise it in next week's PMQs - but this is a high risk strategy for him. He could position it as an attack on Milliband's judgment and lack of courage. Or he could raise the issue of Labour's smears against his wife and dead child and what Milliband did or did not know about that. But that must be a deeply personal and painful issue for him.
Smearing a rich person - however unfairly - is one thing. But smearing wives and dead children is beyond the pale, in my view. Labour crossed a line there and have never stepped back from it, to their discredit.
Certainly the Tories need to do something. There are plenty of stories around about Labour's supporters and Labour MPs. And there is, of course, the fact that the only PM to be interviewed by the police under caution was a Labour PM, one T Blair, currently helping Mr E Milliband, apparently.
Good to see PB is full of rattled Tories tonight. Personally, I think the more light that is shone on the murky tax affairs of the rich and powerful of these Islands the better. This country is rotten - I rarely wish we were more like the States - but in the case of tax rules I do.
Frankly it's wrong that smug plutocrats like Fink can make 3 million quid donations - one can only assume for the purchase of power and influence. Wrong, wrong, wrong again and still wrong.
Comments
nothing directly relevant (though shameless plug: our Political Monitor is out tomorrow and it's a corker)
If it was YouGov then normally Tom Newton-Dunn gives us a tantalising tweet by now
Luckily my bicycle is squeaky enough that none of the neighbours will mistake me for one of Osborne's shirkers having an all-day lie-in...
"A separate coalition motion was approved pointing out that "while the release of information pertaining to malpractice between 2005 to 2007 by individual HSBC account holders was public knowledge, at no point were ministers made aware of individual cases due to taxpayer confidentiality or made aware of leaked information suggesting wrongdoing by HSBC itself" and notes "that this Government has specifically taken action to get back money lost in Swiss bank accounts".
Pinkbus is a triumph! Ed defaming Swiss residents is a triumphant rallying cry for the left.
Apparently...
Could be a major change in the leader ratings.
But more likely it is the Greens in third place, which fits the definition of corker.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?nodeId=MENU:2707982&id=1.101416490
Fixed it for you
What was previous favourite?
Lib Dems in 3rd ?!
Something like neck and neck on normal VI.
But when you mention the leaders' name, large Tory lead?
Is so much fun speculating.
That's basically betting on a big scandal to hit the Conservatives between now and election day.
I thought the Lib Dems would get 80-90 seats, and couldn't believe they'd fallen back.
This is how I bet...
Tell me how many times they've hit 18 since then with YouGov?
http://www.bedfordshire-news.co.uk/Labour-8217-s-parliamentary-candidate-Bedford/story-25987102-detail/story.htm
To me that was despicable. Seems they haven't changed.
They really are hypocritical pond life.
EDIT: Actually I think you are wrong to say they haven't hit 18% since you called the 18% an outlier
They seem to regard the support of non-Tories as an entitlement
which is something I think is very true, and something which gets my back up about Labour more than happens with other parties. In their defence, as it is generally expected that the people who dislike the Tories do so more intensely, on average, than those who dislike Labour, it would be hard for the Tories to develop a sense of entitlement about non-Labour people being 'expected' to vote for them, because the narrative is that it happens less. I recall being really annoyed in 2010 with the assumption that as I had voted LD I must be part of the anti-Tory majority who must surely have felt betrayed by the Coalition.
Granted, about half of those voted LD then did feel so immediately, and another quarter or so of that original amount have since disappeared as well, so it is not as though there is >no basis for the entitlement, but I think it goes a little far.
For partisan Tories, someone voting other than Tory is just a mistake. For partisan Labourites, voting other than Labour, if you are not a Tory, is a betrayal of the left. At least, the extremists would say so.
'Far too many pb Tories regard voting Labour as a sign of corruption: since no-one sane would vote Labour, the party must be dependent on a client state of dole scroungers and public sector workers'.
You forgot Guardian readers & immigrants.
You've just done the same, with use of the phrase 'tax cheats'.
By the way you are wrong.. they have got 18% since you said it was an outlier.. almost makes me feel bad to say it
Don't make stuff up to win an argument this time please though, it was embarrassing to catch you out on the bet you never had
PB Hodges saying Labour/Miliband are a disgrace.......Dan would be proud of every last one of you.
**** Opens another bag of popcorn *****
http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/hansard/commons/todays-commons-debates/read/unknown/90/#c90
Who knows.
Maybe poll No.2. is tomorrow morning's?
If Milliband doesn't, Fink can do nothing and the smear remains.
Cameron could raise it in next week's PMQs - but this is a high risk strategy for him. He could position it as an attack on Milliband's judgment and lack of courage. Or he could raise the issue of Labour's smears against his wife and dead child and what Milliband did or did not know about that. But that must be a deeply personal and painful issue for him.
Smearing a rich person - however unfairly - is one thing. But smearing wives and dead children is beyond the pale, in my view. Labour crossed a line there and have never stepped back from it, to their discredit.
Certainly the Tories need to do something. There are plenty of stories around about Labour's supporters and Labour MPs. And there is, of course, the fact that the only PM to be interviewed by the police under caution was a Labour PM, one T Blair, currently helping Mr E Milliband, apparently.
Frankly it's wrong that smug plutocrats like Fink can make 3 million quid donations - one can only assume for the purchase of power and influence. Wrong, wrong, wrong again and still wrong.