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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The January PB Poll Average – closing in on a double crosso
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The January PB Poll Average – closing in on a double crossover?
In the four and a half years since the general election, there’ve been four crossovers in the polls, blips excluded. Labour took the lead from the Conservatives in the autumn of 2010, the Tories briefly regained it following the EU Treaty veto at the end of 2011 before Labour recaptured the pole position in February 2012 which they’ve held since.
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99 hours.
FPT
The Daily Mail go gunning for Nick Palmer.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2941966/Back-14-Labour-Lib-Dem-MPs-given-payoffs-55-000-election-stand-again.html
Resign now Nick, it's not worth it !!!! :-)
As I have been saying for weeks now I do not see the tories making the kind of progress they need to remain the largest party. Only Scotland is stopping Labour from having a majority. This may still change but the absurd confidence that "Labour cannot win from here" just baffles me.
I must confess how anyone in their heart of hearts thinks Ed is up to being PM of this country baffles me too but that is because I am a tory supporter and is not evidence that the rest of the population think or will think the same.
Ed's lack of a coherent policy structure, his bandwagon populism and his enthusiasm for attacking those who actually pay the bills in this country seems to me as a tory supporter grossly irresponsible and incoherent. But the evidence is that a large enough number are sympathetic to such a view to give him first place in the Commons. I very much hope I am proved wrong but this is not looking good for the tories, not at all.
Not an easy one, is it. I can understand the idea of some sort of “severance” grant; after all a defeated MP has got to live while they line up a new job, and if they’ve been a MP for some years it may be difficult to re-adjust.
The other underlying reason is the wider Labour failure to impress either its own loyalists or its rivals that it is a plausible government in waiting. Here, the buck stops with Ed Miliband. Labour’s fundamental failure is not really that it is too rightwing or too leftwing. Its failure is that it does not provide a clear and plausible account of what it would actually do in office as a government.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/feb/05/labour-failure-scotland-battle-britain-ed-miliband-gordon-brown?CMP=share_btn_tw
Maybe a Labour melt down with the country finally noticing that Ed is a dork who doesn't seem to have the faintest idea of what he would actually do. But surely the polling shows that we know this already.
Maybe a Lib Dem resurgence with all those Lib Dems who have supported Labour for 4 years now returning home. This would make Lazarus look like some sort of amateur. The polling is in the opposite direction.
Maybe a collapse in UKIP support with those abandoning the party going overwhelmingly Tory (so that is in fact 2 contingencies). Absolutely no sign of this either.
Maybe, just maybe, a couple of percent on each of these contingencies all working out nicely for Dave in time for the election. Not impossible but the current odds and the assumption this is going to happen by some kind of magic bemuses me.
From here bar events it's highly unlikely they will get a majority. The oft predicted return of the prodigal voters just isn't happening, Cameron has just pissed too many people off and quite gratuitously too.
I can still see Conservatives with most votes and probably mosts seats though to go into government they need to be hitting around 290-300 since much below that and they'll struggle to get the numbers needed for coalition 2.
The Conservatives biggest hope remains EdM's stunning lack of inspiration to his troops. With SLab fighting for its very existence and large chunks of England saying meh to Ed, it's the continued slump in Labour numbers which will help Cameron rather than Cameron's ability to motivate RoC voters.
I expect being given 55 grand for failing to win the electorate over - and then coming back for another go at sucking on the public teat - will mean the Mail has caught the public mood.
Here in Scotland that is understandable but in the country as a whole they are in a very strong position and yet they already seem to be gearing up their leadership campaigns and falling out. His troops are not inspired, that is for sure.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=32aqb167NkE
Mike goes on and on about the Tories in England needing to be 11% ahead in England before they stop losing seats. All due respect but that ignores net gains from the LibDems that they will still achieve if 11% behind Labour. (The Ashcroft polling in the marginals was done when the LibDems nationally were several points ahead of current polling. Given that everywhere else already had the LibDems registering lost deposit levels of support, logic says any further falls have started to drain their last pools of support too.)
It also ignores Scotland. Labour losing votes and seats could well rob them of any moral authority to govern the UK. If the Tories are ahead on most votes and most seats, labour cobbling together a short term coalition will be like carrying nitro-glycerine on a pogo stick. Safely watched only from a distance.
And even the most pom-pom waving Tories here expect to lose some seats. There are several where the Ashcroft polling looks to present a mountain range to climb. But, with a campaign that I expect to be brutal for Labour, a few points shaved off here and a few points added there should see the Tories most seats and most votes. It still may mean that the Tories can't get much legislation through. But do they need to? Another few years of bed-blocking Labour is as much as is the country needs to repair itself.
The pom pom waveres are simply incapable of asking themselves difficult questions, such as why aren't we doing better ?
And please don't reply with the usual litany of set excuses.
http://www.mediafire.com/view/3ia6dk7chrh76xx/YouGov polls 12 months to 06 February 2015.jpg#
There does appear to be a recent shift away from the purples and greens in favour of the reds and blues, and possibly also towards the yellow peril.
I remain fascinated about what happened when the leaders received more media focus during the party conference season (approx data points 150-170), and question what will happen in the final run up to the election.
For the first time since last May, the average LD 2010 VI retention ( for the 5 YG polls published this month) is greater than their losses to departing red LDs who have chosen Labour.
If this trend continues, then LD could strengthen and not lose so many seats to Labour. Currently the LD2010 VI defections to the Cons is holding steady at about 50% of the red LDs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kD-fPb87mVA
I noted your projection of seats per Party on an earlier thread. I hadn't done one myself and now need not bother because it would be virtually identical to yours.
When the Twin Towers both point the same way, other punters should take note! :-)
Didn't stop the scandal erupting, though, via the court of public opinion.
But, he remains the least successful centre-right leader in any English-speaking democracy.
As is usual at this hour of the day Sporting remains asleep, with its prices suspended... Zzzzzz.
Unfortunate ...
2) The usual underscoring of the Tories by the pollsters.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/11393707/Putin-could-attack-Baltic-states-warns-former-Nato-chief.html
How about using QE to bolster National Defence forces?
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/feb/06/australian-prime-minister-tony-abbott-may-be-deposed-after-party-revolt
In all honesty, the party whose performance I find hardest to 'read' is the Lib Dems.
I accept that an MP's future will be affected by national circumstances, but if he or she was 'sacked' for being incompetent, then should redundancy be payable?
Even if the Europeans and the US decided not to fight, it would inevitably mean an end to gas imports from Russia. And for the next five years (at least) Russia has no other markets for gas. So, at a time when oil prices have halved, he would be cutting off his gas revenues. The current Russian recession (which is gathering pace) would probably turn into a full blow depression.
The system is to help people with no discernible skills whatsoever* to transition into the real world. What they do and how they approach their post-parliament life is another matter. Including going back into the fray.
*NPXMPCPPC - I appreciate you have plenty of skills...!
As a result of the sheer panic created by the Ashcroft Scottish poll, which English marginal seats might lose some of Labour's resources in order to be directed towards Scottish seats like wee Dougie Alexander's, Currant Bun's and the Smurf's?
And if you give numbers instead of bullsh*t, there isn't much scope for argument.
And if you're not in the business of talking your team up, you're not going to generate a great deal of support.
As you say, plus ca change....
The problems of the execrable Tony Abbott down under provide part of the answer.
Rightwing governments aren't at all popular. That's why I don't expect a swingback here.
Very different to Kinnock in 1992 who appeared in-your-face aggressive and was going to ravish the incomes, savings and house prices of Middle England with his army of Scottish socialists.
EdM wont even have the army of Scottish Socialists.
And, I wonder if Western Europeans would care very much.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ujxDA9VsQG4
Chrome's new tabs look slightly different than before. What's the point of such a small change? Except to irritate me, obviously.
Watched a small amount of QT. Was amused by the mockery of Tristram Hunt.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/31158612
Marussia wanted to use the 2014 car, but that required unanimous agreement. Force India vetoed, although other teams were against it too.
Boo hoo.
There were cheers when Gordon was finally dragged out I guess..
When Lithuania came out of the USSR, there was a lot of unemployment as that country acclimatised to a capitalist economy. The younger people did and do enjoy the economic opportunities offered. However, some of the older ones (who had been brought up as part of the USSR and had experienced nothing different) were used to the certainty of employment for life (even at a low income) and still hanker after those days of economic certainty and to a ;large degree lack of personal responsibility for their own economic past, present and future.
Not what he said - but the sneering tone used.
But he has never been a Conservative Prime Minister. The electorate didn't trust him with a majority. They told him to work with another party to undo the damage Labour had done to the economy. And so for five years he has been a coalition Prime Minister, who has held that coalition together, as the voters wanted, and delivered a stronger economic turn around - especially on jobs and growth - than most would have expected.
Will the voters be grateful? They should be, but...only grudgingly at best. Has the Opoosition come up with a programme that would deliver anything better? No. Have they made a case to "throw out the bums"? Nope.
But still, the voters aren't saying what they want. Which may mean they are toying with politicians. Or genuinely, haven't got a clue what they want. My gut instinct still tells me that ultimately they don't want Ed Miliband as Prime Minister and will vote accordingly.
That said, if MPs get booted out en masse because the country do not approve of the way their political party is behaving, then surely they must take some blame for that behaviour.
NHS reorganisation was disastrous, says King's Fund
http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/health-31145600
Tory Record in government 2:
George Osborne needlessly shrank 5% off GDP with 2010 cuts, says thinktank
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/05/george-osborne-2010-spending-cuts-shrank-uk-gdp-5-percent
I find it odd that Hunt keeps banging this drum, given that he attended UCS, which as an independent school, is not obliged to to employ qualified teachers.
We should perhaps also ask what qualifies Hunt to be an MP?
http://www.thewestonmercury.co.uk/news/disillusioned_councillors_quit_party_1_3944528
So much for the awe inspiring leadership of Ed M.
Actually I lie. I'm not surprised at all. Hope all are well!
""The King's Fund says that in the past two years, the focus has rightly shifted to improving patient safety and quality of care as well as treating more people at home rather than in hospital.
There was also criticism of Labour, who, the King's Fund says, is "crying wolf" with "ill-founded" claims about the NHS being privatised."
Should be a real vote winner..