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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : February 5th 2015

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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Neil said:


    This choice is showing a lack of respect for the voters.

    I could point to lots of other selections that could fairly be described as showing lack of respect for voters. I cant imagine what this candidate could have done to be considered as bad as those. If you're good enough you're old enough. Few MPs in the 20th century will have delivered a maiden speech quite like Bernadette Devlin's and she was, what, 21?
    What were her convictions again?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,044
    Tristram Hunt is an absolute gift.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,044
    For UKIP, Conservatives and Liberal Democrat !
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @carrieapples: Tristram Hunt having an absolute shocker. Mocking church schools is a new low #bbcqt

    @iainmartin1: Yeah, don't want a school to be better than any other. They should all be same. Like food, clothes + cars in Soviet Union @bbcquestiontime

    @hugorifkind: My timeline shows that Hunt is loathed equally by left and right, for being both too left and too right. Which is sort of fascinating.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    AndyJS said:

    Awful figures for Labour on Betfair Exchange. They're in the 20s for Ov Maj:

    http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?nodeId=MENU:2707982&id=1.101416490

    With scotland out of reach Labour will need leads of 5% in the national polls to have a chance of a majority, but if they are even or slightly ahead from the Tories they are the largest party with ease.
    The current betting markets are on a Tory lead of about 4%.
    OGH was right to point that Labour are value at the moment.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,127
    Scott_P said:


    @hugorifkind: My timeline shows that Hunt is loathed equally by left and right, for being both too left and too right. Which is sort of fascinating.

    Nick Clegg could tell a few stories about the same problem, albeit with more personal mockery and hatred to go along with it.

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    Pulpstar said:

    Yes, she appeared awful on that video to me, and I'd seriously consider voting Dougie but I've never visited Paisley :)

    That raises an interesting point. My general policy is that I rarely watch videos of politicians for betting purposes. I don't want to be influenced by my own personal reaction to them; what matters is not what I think, but what their potential voters think. I think the best way to gauge that is to read what local journalists and others say about them, rather than to watch them yourself.

    In this case I did look at the video, and whilst of course I wouldn't even contemplate voting for her, I thought she came over rather well. Of course she is naivety personified; I was particularly amused by her opening remarks, when she was telling us how voting in previous elections didn't make any difference to how we were governed. Those of us old enough to remember 1979 might permit ourselves a raised eyebrow at that..
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    I can't wait for Ed (sort of a Jew) Miliband's apology to the Catholic Church tomorrow for Hunt's anti-nun meltdown

    @WesleyEyley: Was Tristram Hunt's brief for @bbcquestiontime tonight - 'Act Sanctimonious and lose us some more votes'? - nice one #Labour #bbcqt
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    AndrewPAndrewP Posts: 10
    edited February 2015
    That list includes non Tory targets as well, it's 49 looking solely at LAB to CON targets. Overall the Ashcroft polls have shown Labour gaining about 40 Tory seats but some of those polls were done some time ago. If there is only a bit of LAB->CON swing by polling day that could very easily be only 30.

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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Speedy said:

    The 19 year old SNP challenger to Douglas Alexander http://bit.ly/1zUySqT

    What do you think of her, Mike?
    I wouldn't vote for a 19 year old whatever the party. The Record will want to get their teeth into SNP candidates in same way the the media has had fun with some UKIP selections.

    This choice is showing a lack of respect for the voters.

    But Inverness will turn into a very safe SNP seat, every party abuses their safe seats.
    The SNP can put anyone in Inverness and still win.
    Blast, I confused Douglas Alexander with Danny Alexander.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,044
    Well...
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Mhairi Black is a very interesting candidate. I really want to know idf she's a Vari or a Mary but beyond that, she could have a lot of different effects on the outcome.

    Firstly, I suspect the SSP will be backing up the SNP for the constituency, the ground game is going to be pretty awesome. Meanwhile the Printwar is obviously going to be very against her, I wonder if that might backfire give that, generally speaking, the average Paisley Old Dear will have the traditional Glasgow(shire) empathy for a young female.

    My personal opinion is that Mhairi will probably hurt the SNPs chance but, it;s not like we have a huge amount of precedence for a 19 year, female candidate with an 8 percent lead before she's named.

    Chinese proverb time.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Samfr: Tristram tomorrow: "Whenever I see a nun my first thought is: respect"
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    Scott_P said:

    @Samfr: Tristram tomorrow: "Whenever I see a nun my first thought is: respect"

    LOL!
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Pulpstar said:

    Tristram Hunt is an absolute gift.

    That the Labour Party has a cabinet member with the name "Tristram Julian William Hunt" tells you all you need to know about NuLabour's influence on the party and how far it has strayed from its roots.
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    TheCornicheCamelTheCornicheCamel Posts: 17
    edited February 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    Tristram Hunt is an absolute gift.

    Wasn't he being touted as a possible star leader of Laboùr, earlier in the week here?

    He is a complete and utter tool.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,044
    Gorgeous George doesn't disappoint...

    "I see the audience has been carefully selected..."
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Brimington result

    Lab 1293 UKIP 380 Ind 157 Lib Dem 135 Con 120

    The Ind was a former Lib Dem district councillor for part of the CC division
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    Scott_P said:

    @Samfr: Tristram tomorrow: "Whenever I see a nun my first thought is: respect"

    He'll appear at a photo shoot in a Convent tomorrow. Probably with Miliband, gurning and dribbling soup down his tie.
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Pulpstar said:

    Gorgeous George doesn't disappoint...

    "I see the audience has been carefully selected..."

    In Galloway, anyone not clapping is "carefully selected".
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited February 2015

    stjohn said:

    MikeL said:

    Please can someone explain to me what has been going on on Betfair over the last few days.

    No movement in the polls yet Con most seats has gone from 2 to 1.7.

    I really can't see how Ashcroft's Scottish polls can have had much effect - they have given no new information.

    So what is going on?

    I wonder if it's punters reacting to the mood music? Lots of Ed is Crap reporting in the media, poor performance at PMQs, Bill Somebody, Business leaders saying Labour isn't up to it, the Ashcroft Scottish polls, the imbalance in money to spend on the election campaigns, swing back etc ....


    Tory punters are much more selective in the information they let influence them. So Ashcroft polls showing LAB collapse in Scotland are good and to be taken into account. Ashcroft polls showing the Tories struggling to win LD seats in England are to be ignored.

    Given the huge challenge presented by the electoral system and the fact that LAB's LD crutch is still there though a little shorter the blue task is daunting. They've invested so much in the "Ed is crap" narrative.

    Today I bet on LAB most seats at 2.5 which I think is a good bet.
    Given the Scottish situation, Labour will have to make around 37-42 gains direct from the Tories to make your bet a winner. Or, in other words, the Tories 40:40 strategy will have to be a complete and total failure. Against Ed Miliband. Who's facing wipeout in Scotland. Who trails Cameron massively in any forced choice question. And has leadership ratings to match Michael Foot.

    I just don't think that's going to happen. But, it's your money.
    I'm a trader betting on the betting not final outcomes. If I think a price is good I get on in the expectation that it will move to my benefit. I then get out at what seems the best moment.

    Generally I have yet to see any refutation of my point on the English challenge where the Tories are failing to get anywhere near the 11.4% lead they need. Below that almost certainly means seat losses to LAB.
    You've seen plenty of refutation of that 11.4% figure, both on here and in comment elsewhere. I'd suggest that you are being selective in the information you let influence you.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,044
    Wait ?

    He's the MP for Stoke ?!

    Whats the UKIP price in his constituency :D ?!
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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    Brimington result

    Lab 1293 UKIP 380 Ind 157 Lib Dem 135 Con 120

    The Ind was a former Lib Dem district councillor for part of the CC division

    CON only 1170 behind! We were 1500 behind last time!

    CON heading for GE2015 overall majority!!

    PS Mark are you still LD or are you UKIP now? :)
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Scott_P said:

    @Samfr: Tristram tomorrow: "Whenever I see a nun my first thought is: respect"

    Why did Labour put someone with a little bit (understatement) of an attitude problem on education?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    Wait ?

    He's the MP for Stoke ?!

    Whats the UKIP price in his constituency :D ?!

    He's the MP for Stoke Central but Stoke North may be a better bet for UKIP since the sitting MP since 1987, Joan Walley, is standing down. Stoke North is Robbie Williams' home turf incidentally.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,270
    edited February 2015
    Dair Well the Tory Transport Secretary, Patrick Mcloughlin, used to be a coal miner, on class background he and Hunt are in the wrong parties, but class does not define political allegiance as much as it used to, culture, values and whether you work in the private or public sectors matter more
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    The 19 year old SNP challenger to Douglas Alexander http://bit.ly/1zUySqT

    What do you think of her, Mike?
    I wouldn't vote for a 19 year old whatever the party. The Record will want to get their teeth into SNP candidates in same way the the media has had fun with some UKIP selections.

    This choice is showing a lack of respect for the voters.

    I'm not commenting on the individual but I'd much rather have a couple of dozen 18-25 year old MPs to give some sort of balance to the excessive number who are 60+ and 70+. Parliament is supposed to speak for everyone.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2015
    I see that, for the first time ever, BBC1 and BBC2 are no longer numbers 1 and 2 on TV after the latest digital update. They're now on channels 800 and 801.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,953
    edited February 2015
    Scott_P said:

    @carrieapples: Tristram Hunt having an absolute shocker. Mocking church schools is a new low #bbcqt

    @iainmartin1: Yeah, don't want a school to be better than any other. They should all be same. Like food, clothes + cars in Soviet Union @bbcquestiontime

    @hugorifkind: My timeline shows that Hunt is loathed equally by left and right, for being both too left and too right. Which is sort of fascinating.

    I've always wondered, but where do you get all of these tweets from? Are you constantly monitoring Twitter looking for Tweets to post?

    Like who is "carrieapples"?
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    Wait ?

    He's the MP for Stoke ?!

    Whats the UKIP price in his constituency :D ?!

    Good point, he won it with 39% on a 17% lead in 2010, with the LD on 22% and the Tories on 21%. The BNP got a sizable 8% and UKIP another 4%.

    So UKIP starts logically on 12, if they get 10 from the Tories and another 10 from the LD they get to 32, but Labour will probably get some LD's too.
    UKIP would need to get 1/4 of the 2010 LAB vote if they want to gain his seat.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,044
    edited February 2015
    Ilford North - Labour are "very confident" there apparently.

    He's also confirmed what Audrey Anne has said about resources being put into Twickers... God only know why I'm on the Conservatives at 7-1 there but apparently Tory resources are being put in,.....

    Tip from a Conservative councillor schoolfriend of mine.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pulpstar said:

    Ilford North - Labour are "very confident" there apparently.

    He's also confirmed what Audrey Anne has said about resources being put into Twickers... God only know why I'm on the Conservatives at 7-1 there but apparently Tory resources are being put in,.....

    Tip from a Conservative councillor schoolfriend of mine.

    It would be a big surprise if Labour were to win Ilford North. Labour would need almost all the LD vote to win: Con maj is 5,404 and LD vote was 5,924.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/c32.stm
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Charles said:

    Neil said:


    This choice is showing a lack of respect for the voters.

    I could point to lots of other selections that could fairly be described as showing lack of respect for voters. I cant imagine what this candidate could have done to be considered as bad as those. If you're good enough you're old enough. Few MPs in the 20th century will have delivered a maiden speech quite like Bernadette Devlin's and she was, what, 21?
    What were her convictions again?
    Poor Bernadette rather lost it over time and is now but a pale shadow of her former glory. Another reason for electing our MPs young, chewing them up and spitting them out.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380
    There's nothing wrong with the SNP having a 19-year-old candidate per se - we need some young people in Parliament for the same reason as we need other demographic groups there, so people feel represented by more than just 650 middle-age white middle-class blokes. And as discussed with voting age, there are some young people who are a lot brighter and more balanced than some older ones. Whether that applies to this particular candidate is another question.

    One of the local Tory council candidates in my patch is I believe 17 (he'll be 18 by May). He's very keen and very partisan - tends IMO to get his facts mixed up when he posts too quickly on blogs, but he'll learn. I don't think anyone's having a go at him over his age.

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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Neil said:

    Charles said:

    Neil said:


    This choice is showing a lack of respect for the voters.

    I could point to lots of other selections that could fairly be described as showing lack of respect for voters. I cant imagine what this candidate could have done to be considered as bad as those. If you're good enough you're old enough. Few MPs in the 20th century will have delivered a maiden speech quite like Bernadette Devlin's and she was, what, 21?
    What were her convictions again?
    Poor Bernadette rather lost it over time and is now but a pale shadow of her former glory. Another reason for electing our MPs young, chewing them up and spitting them out.
    Devlin is pretty much everything you would expect from a Labour MP. Got elected, failed, went into charity and continues to suck on the public teat.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,127
    edited February 2015

    The 19 year old SNP challenger to Douglas Alexander http://bit.ly/1zUySqT

    What do you think of her, Mike?
    I wouldn't vote for a 19 year old whatever the party. The Record will want to get their teeth into SNP candidates in same way the the media has had fun with some UKIP selections.

    This choice is showing a lack of respect for the voters.

    I'm not commenting on the individual but I'd much rather have a couple of dozen 18-25 year old MPs to give some sort of balance to the excessive number who are 60+ and 70+. Parliament is supposed to speak for everyone.
    I'm not opposed in theory, but of course you can carry that logic to an absurd end very easily - work out the number of idiots and ensure we have enough idiot MPs to speak for them too

    Regardless, one does not need to be a man or woman of the people to be someone for them. I'm not saying I want to live in a gerontocracy, but like lowering the voting age to 16, I don't see why it is assumed that balancing age numbers is something that would automatically improve our legislative body. It might, but the type of people who are capable of being picked and elected at those ages might well be the worst people to speak for people in their own age bracket for all well, there is no guarantee some 24 year old political wonk should be a better representative than some out of touch 75 year old political wonk.

    And again, if get more and more MPs in at that age, the leaders will be increasingly young too in all probability, which I'm not concerned about but is a not uncommon gripe of many too, what with the 'never had a job outside politics' concerns.

    Bottom line the age of a candidate can be pretty irrelevant to how good a candidate they are, but equally it can be pretty irrelevant to how bad they may be, with the added inexperience of anything added to the mix, and no guarantee they appeal more to or relate to/understand concerns of ordinary people their age or any age either.

    Sometimes political reformers seem convinced that little changes like altering the composition of MPs will make really huge changes just because, but I am really skeptical of that - the culture enforces blandness and all the rest of the standard political behaviours on to almost all of its newbies, why would them being younger change that? I don't feel my MP being 25 would make them represent me better than one who is 51, even though I too am a political wonk in my 20s.

    Anyway, rant over, good night all
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Dair said:

    Neil said:

    Charles said:

    Neil said:


    This choice is showing a lack of respect for the voters.

    I could point to lots of other selections that could fairly be described as showing lack of respect for voters. I cant imagine what this candidate could have done to be considered as bad as those. If you're good enough you're old enough. Few MPs in the 20th century will have delivered a maiden speech quite like Bernadette Devlin's and she was, what, 21?
    What were her convictions again?
    Poor Bernadette rather lost it over time and is now but a pale shadow of her former glory. Another reason for electing our MPs young, chewing them up and spitting them out.
    Devlin is pretty much everything you would expect from a Labour MP. Got elected, failed, went into charity and continues to suck on the public teat.
    Well, she was never a Labour MP and I have no idea what the rest of your post is referring to. Is it to do with the gerrymandering of Belfast East?
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    Pulpstar said:

    Ilford North - Labour are "very confident" there apparently.

    He's also confirmed what Audrey Anne has said about resources being put into Twickers... God only know why I'm on the Conservatives at 7-1 there but apparently Tory resources are being put in,.....

    Tip from a Conservative councillor schoolfriend of mine.

    I'd be wary of such tips.

    I'm not at all surprised that the Conservatives are putting resource into Twickenham, but that doesn't necessarily mean that they think it's winnable this time round. They might be working to establish a base for when Vince eventually retires. When he does, there's a very good chance of it going blue.
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    kle4 said:

    I'm not saying I want to live in a gerontocracy, but like lowering the voting age to 16, I don't see why it is assumed that balancing age numbers is something that would automatically improve our legislative body.

    Well for Scotland, 16 is the age of maturity, not 18. And this is still reflected in a lot of legislation despite 300 years of London rule.
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    I for one am delighted to see young women of talent take their place in Sottish politics. If the referendum meant anything at all it paved the way for a new and fresh generation of political activism in Scotland. The total failure to understand this is why Labour are heading for oblivion , why Mike on this site underestimated the SNP and why the Daily Record circulation is falling through the floor.
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Neil said:

    Dair said:

    Neil said:

    Charles said:

    Neil said:


    This choice is showing a lack of respect for the voters.

    I could point to lots of other selections that could fairly be described as showing lack of respect for voters. I cant imagine what this candidate could have done to be considered as bad as those. If you're good enough you're old enough. Few MPs in the 20th century will have delivered a maiden speech quite like Bernadette Devlin's and she was, what, 21?
    What were her convictions again?
    Poor Bernadette rather lost it over time and is now but a pale shadow of her former glory. Another reason for electing our MPs young, chewing them up and spitting them out.
    Devlin is pretty much everything you would expect from a Labour MP. Got elected, failed, went into charity and continues to suck on the public teat.
    Well, she was never a Labour MP and I have no idea what the rest of your post is referring to. Is it to do with the gerrymandering of Belfast East?
    She was a Nationalist and Socialist MP and followed the career path of many a Labour MP. As for Belfast East, are you denying that the NI constituencies are deliberately gerrymandered? Why was Belfast East expanded into the very liberal Holywood?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    1,000 British troops to be made available for Ukraine situation.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,127
    edited February 2015
    Dair said:

    kle4 said:

    I'm not saying I want to live in a gerontocracy, but like lowering the voting age to 16, I don't see why it is assumed that balancing age numbers is something that would automatically improve our legislative body.

    Well for Scotland, 16 is the age of maturity, not 18. And this is still reflected in a lot of legislation despite 300 years of London rule.
    I'm not saying it is a bad choice necessarily, just that people seem to expect it to have a great deal more impact for the rest of the country, in a positive way, than seems warranted, as an automatic thing. Eg Allow voting at 16, people will be more engaged, even though if you are struggling to engage at 18 you will probably struggle to engage at 16 too - you need to do more than merely make a technical change, or get more young MPs in, to change the culture.

    You can engage people at 16, of course you can, but merely changing the age limit to reflect what goes on in Scotland will not do it on its own as seems to be the argument.
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    AndyJS said:

    1,000 British troops to be made available for Ukraine situation.

    Damn, that's going to leave a really tight schedule for the rUK to get Trident out of Scotland.
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    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Ilford North - Labour are "very confident" there apparently.

    He's also confirmed what Audrey Anne has said about resources being put into Twickers... God only know why I'm on the Conservatives at 7-1 there but apparently Tory resources are being put in,.....

    Tip from a Conservative councillor schoolfriend of mine.

    It would be a big surprise if Labour were to win Ilford North. Labour would need almost all the LD vote to win: Con maj is 5,404 and LD vote was 5,924.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/c32.stm
    Demographics should help Labour I would imagine.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2015

    There's nothing wrong with the SNP having a 19-year-old candidate per se - we need some young people in Parliament for the same reason as we need other demographic groups there, so people feel represented by more than just 650 middle-age white middle-class blokes. And as discussed with voting age, there are some young people who are a lot brighter and more balanced than some older ones. Whether that applies to this particular candidate is another question.

    One of the local Tory council candidates in my patch is I believe 17 (he'll be 18 by May). He's very keen and very partisan - tends IMO to get his facts mixed up when he posts too quickly on blogs, but he'll learn. I don't think anyone's having a go at him over his age.

    Robin Hunter Clarke is age 22 as UKIP's probable MP for Boston, he is a local councillor since he was 18, so it's not just the SNP.

    And with that, goodnight.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh is pretty likely to be elected in Ochil & South Perthshire since it's the SNP's top target seat:

    http://www.snp.org/people/tasmina-ahmed-sheikh
    scotslass said:

    I for one am delighted to see young women of talent take their place in Sottish politics. If the referendum meant anything at all it paved the way for a new and fresh generation of political activism in Scotland. The total failure to understand this is why Labour are heading for oblivion , why Mike on this site underestimated the SNP and why the Daily Record circulation is falling through the floor.

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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    kle4 said:

    Dair said:

    kle4 said:

    I'm not saying I want to live in a gerontocracy, but like lowering the voting age to 16, I don't see why it is assumed that balancing age numbers is something that would automatically improve our legislative body.

    Well for Scotland, 16 is the age of maturity, not 18. And this is still reflected in a lot of legislation despite 300 years of London rule.
    I'm not saying it is a bad choice necessarily, just that people seem to expect it to have a great deal more impact for the rest of the country, in a positive way, than seems warranted, as an automatic thing. Eg Allow voting at 16, people will be more engaged, even though if you are struggling to engage at 18 you will probably struggle to engage at 16 too - you need to do more than merely make a technical change, or get more young MPs in, to change the culture.

    You can engage people at 16, of course you can, but merely changing the age limit to reflect what goes on in Scotland will not do it on its own as seems to be the argument.
    I have no idea how this would work in England, certainly in Scotland, the idea of adulthood at 16 is well entrenched and the lack of voting rights have always seemed quite strange. In the referendum, votes at 16 seemed to have a very positive effect on engagement. Especially when all those 16 and 17yos ripped George Galloway's bullshit apart.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2015
    Yep, it's probably going to be a safe seat for Labour from 2020 onwards.

    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Ilford North - Labour are "very confident" there apparently.

    He's also confirmed what Audrey Anne has said about resources being put into Twickers... God only know why I'm on the Conservatives at 7-1 there but apparently Tory resources are being put in,.....

    Tip from a Conservative councillor schoolfriend of mine.

    It would be a big surprise if Labour were to win Ilford North. Labour would need almost all the LD vote to win: Con maj is 5,404 and LD vote was 5,924.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/c32.stm
    Demographics should help Labour I would imagine.
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    Pulpstar said:

    Ilford North - Labour are "very confident" there apparently.

    He's also confirmed what Audrey Anne has said about resources being put into Twickers... God only know why I'm on the Conservatives at 7-1 there but apparently Tory resources are being put in,.....

    Tip from a Conservative councillor schoolfriend of mine.

    6% swing required. Linda Perham managed 13% in 1997. But then again that was 1997!
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2015
    AndyJS said:

    1,000 British troops to be made available for Ukraine situation.

    To be sent to fight Russia on the battlefield?
    Are you sure that's the decision?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    There isn't a single MP under 30 at the moment. Pamela Nash is the youngest, born in 1984.
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    Scott_P said:

    @alstewitn: #BBCQT I don't think the '@CristinaOhq v @TristramHuntMP' on who taught Cristina will end well...

    @iainmartin1: Tristram Hunt going for the anti-nun vote there. @bbcquestiontime

    Nun of the above?
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    AndyJS said:

    I see that, for the first time ever, BBC1 and BBC2 are no longer numbers 1 and 2 on TV after the latest digital update. They're now on channels 800 and 801.

    Even on Freiview?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    No, I think it's just to support the Baltic countries.
    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    1,000 British troops to be made available for Ukraine situation.

    To be sent to fight Russia on the battlefield?
    Are you sure that's the decision?
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    Excellent article about online messageboards.

    http://martinbelam.com/2015/i-tell-you/
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2015
    Ilford North was 10.3% Jewish in 2001; that was down to 6.5% by 2011. Muslims rose from 6.4% to 15.3%.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ilfordnorth/
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/ilfordnorth/
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    I see that, for the first time ever, BBC1 and BBC2 are no longer numbers 1 and 2 on TV after the latest digital update. They're now on channels 800 and 801.

    Even on Freiview?
    Yes, Freeview is what I use if I'm not online.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029

    AndyJS said:

    I see that, for the first time ever, BBC1 and BBC2 are no longer numbers 1 and 2 on TV after the latest digital update. They're now on channels 800 and 801.

    Even on Freiview?
    Aren't those the London versions, at least I recall having the ability to watch BBC London on freeview.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,127
    Dair said:

    kle4 said:

    Dair said:

    kle4 said:

    I'm not saying I want to live in a gerontocracy, but like lowering the voting age to 16, I don't see why it is assumed that balancing age numbers is something that would automatically improve our legislative body.

    Well for Scotland, 16 is the age of maturity, not 18. And this is still reflected in a lot of legislation despite 300 years of London rule.
    I'm not saying it is a bad choice necessarily, just that people seem to expect it to have a great deal more impact for the rest of the country, in a positive way, than seems warranted, as an automatic thing. Eg Allow voting at 16, people will be more engaged, even though if you are struggling to engage at 18 you will probably struggle to engage at 16 too - you need to do more than merely make a technical change, or get more young MPs in, to change the culture.

    You can engage people at 16, of course you can, but merely changing the age limit to reflect what goes on in Scotland will not do it on its own as seems to be the argument.
    I have no idea how this would work in England, certainly in Scotland, the idea of adulthood at 16 is well entrenched and the lack of voting rights have always seemed quite strange. In the referendum, votes at 16 seemed to have a very positive effect on engagement. Especially when all those 16 and 17yos ripped George Galloway's bullshit apart.
    A rather uniquely engaging event that, unlike most elections. But again it's really just the automatic assumption it would work, or that young mps would, that gets me. It still requires tge right people nit just matching demographics
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2015
    AndyJS said:

    No, I think it's just to support the Baltic countries.

    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    1,000 British troops to be made available for Ukraine situation.

    To be sent to fight Russia on the battlefield?
    Are you sure that's the decision?
    Ok I've seen the article.
    There will never be used anyway, they are just useless posturing, we know it and the Russians know it.

    I can't understand why the unnecessary fear that Russia is going to invade NATO?
    That's what nukes are for, not conventional forces.

    Still 1000 troops less to get killed in a real war in the Middle East.
    Central Europe is for NATO what Biarritz was for the Wehrmacht in WW2, a nice place far away from the front.

    Goodnight.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,624
    edited February 2015

    Back in early October the Tories had 3 consecutive CON leads - something that's not been repeated since


    Labour's lowest lead* in ELBOW was 0.5% during week-ending 23rd November

    (* unless you count last week's 0.4% offering, which increases 0.8% including the TNS-BMRB phone poll. Even 0.8% would be their second worst lead)
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    kle4 said:

    Dair said:

    kle4 said:

    Dair said:

    kle4 said:

    I'm not saying I want to live in a gerontocracy, but like lowering the voting age to 16, I don't see why it is assumed that balancing age numbers is something that would automatically improve our legislative body.

    Well for Scotland, 16 is the age of maturity, not 18. And this is still reflected in a lot of legislation despite 300 years of London rule.
    I'm not saying it is a bad choice necessarily, just that people seem to expect it to have a great deal more impact for the rest of the country, in a positive way, than seems warranted, as an automatic thing. Eg Allow voting at 16, people will be more engaged, even though if you are struggling to engage at 18 you will probably struggle to engage at 16 too - you need to do more than merely make a technical change, or get more young MPs in, to change the culture.

    You can engage people at 16, of course you can, but merely changing the age limit to reflect what goes on in Scotland will not do it on its own as seems to be the argument.
    I have no idea how this would work in England, certainly in Scotland, the idea of adulthood at 16 is well entrenched and the lack of voting rights have always seemed quite strange. In the referendum, votes at 16 seemed to have a very positive effect on engagement. Especially when all those 16 and 17yos ripped George Galloway's bullshit apart.
    A rather uniquely engaging event that, unlike most elections. But again it's really just the automatic assumption it would work, or that young mps would, that gets me. It still requires tge right people nit just matching demographics
    The referendum may have been unique but the idea that in Scotland you are an adult at 16 is not.
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    isam said:

    No UKIP rep on QT tonight because Suzanne Evans is ill and the BBC would only accept a female replacement

    Diane James?
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    LAB - 33% (-) CON - 32% (-2) UKIP - 15% (+2) LDEM - 9% (+3) GRN - 5% (-2)

    Oh well, my mistake about the Tory lead. As you were. :-)

    Labour lead 1.6% on simple average of this week's 7 polls so far.
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    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    No, I think it's just to support the Baltic countries.

    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    1,000 British troops to be made available for Ukraine situation.

    To be sent to fight Russia on the battlefield?
    Are you sure that's the decision?
    Ok I've seen the article.
    There will never be used anyway, they are just useless posturing, we know it and the Russians know it.

    I can't understand why the unnecessary fear that Russia is going to invade NATO?
    That's what nukes are for, not conventional forces.

    Still 1000 troops less to get killed in a real war in the Middle East.
    Central Europe is for NATO what Biarritz was for the Wehrmacht in WW2, a nice place far away from the front.

    Goodnight.
    "Kaliningrad is the testicle of Russia. Every time I want to make the Russians scream, I squeeze on Kaliningrad!"
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    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    I see that, for the first time ever, BBC1 and BBC2 are no longer numbers 1 and 2 on TV after the latest digital update. They're now on channels 800 and 801.

    Even on Freiview?
    Aren't those the London versions, at least I recall having the ability to watch BBC London on freeview.
    There's even a Freeview 8 in London - "London Live"!
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    AndyJS said:

    Ilford North was 10.3% Jewish in 2001; that was down to 6.5% by 2011. Muslims rose from 6.4% to 15.3%.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ilfordnorth/
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/ilfordnorth/

    Only 44% White British.

    IIRC ranks #35 in terms of "diversity". Neighbouring Ilford South and East Ham rank #2 and #1 respectively.
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    isam said:

    No UKIP rep on QT tonight because Suzanne Evans is ill and the BBC would only accept a female replacement

    Diane James?
    A clever, some may cynical, swerve to avoid the Galloway vs the world debacle it descended into. Though I thoroughly enjoyed it!
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,044
    Cutting end to "This Week"
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    isam said:

    No UKIP rep on QT tonight because Suzanne Evans is ill and the BBC would only accept a female replacement

    Diane James?
    Suzanne had replaced another kipper who was first slated to be on I saw somewhere.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,060
    edited February 2015
    Mcbride tweeting hunt is a dick,and now not supporting him as next lab leader. #nungate
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,044

    AndyJS said:

    Ilford North was 10.3% Jewish in 2001; that was down to 6.5% by 2011. Muslims rose from 6.4% to 15.3%.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ilfordnorth/
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/ilfordnorth/

    Only 44% White British.

    IIRC ranks #35 in terms of "diversity". Neighbouring Ilford South and East Ham rank #2 and #1 respectively.
    Reckon it's OK at 11-4 ?

    Paddy Power have it at 4-11 Conservative so I can back out my £36.36 stake if needed ^^;
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Pulpstar said:

    Cutting end to "This Week"

    He must have given up on his expectations of a knighthood.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    For all 2016'ers get this, I just found it:
    http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/jersey-gov-chris-christie-criminal-investigation/story?id=28753740

    "Federal authorities have launched a criminal investigation into New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, as well as members of his administration, a man at the center of the investigation told ABC News."
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,191
    Speedy said:

    ...I can't understand why the unnecessary fear that Russia is going to invade NATO?...

    The logic goes as follows:

    * Putin has cited the presence of Russophone minorities in Georgia and Ukraine as an excuse to support the violent establishment of Russophile enclaves in those countries.
    * The Baltics have Russophone minorities
    * The Baltics can do the math

    That explains why the Baltics are frightened. Given that Putin has motive and the means to start dissecting them, and there are precedents for him doing so, their fears are justified and necessary. Given that they are NATO and therefore allies, we are obliged to help them.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Labour MPs over the age of 80 who are carrying on:

    Dennis Skinner.
    Gerald Kaufman.
    David Winnick.
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    AndyJS said:

    Labour MPs over the age of 80 who are carrying on:

    Dennis Skinner.
    Gerald Kaufman.
    David Winnick.

    Winnick was first elected in 1966, though he was out of Parliament 1970-9.
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    AndyJS said:

    Labour MPs over the age of 80 who are carrying on:

    Dennis Skinner.
    Gerald Kaufman.
    David Winnick.

    Winnick was first elected in 1966, though he was out of Parliament 1970-9.
    They just can't give up the public teat can they.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    AndyJS said:

    Labour MPs over the age of 80 who are carrying on:

    Dennis Skinner.
    Gerald Kaufman.
    David Winnick.

    Kaufman is up there with Churchill, in contesting parliamentary elections over a period of ~60 years...
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    asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    viewcode said:

    Speedy said:

    ...I can't understand why the unnecessary fear that Russia is going to invade NATO?...

    The logic goes as follows:

    * Putin has cited the presence of Russophone minorities in Georgia and Ukraine as an excuse to support the violent establishment of Russophile enclaves in those countries.
    * The Baltics have Russophone minorities
    * The Baltics can do the math

    That explains why the Baltics are frightened. Given that Putin has motive and the means to start dissecting them, and there are precedents for him doing so, their fears are justified and necessary. Given that they are NATO and therefore allies, we are obliged to help them.
    Putin doesn't have the means, it'd be a clear article 5 job.

    The western military may be a bit ropey at street fighting in the middle east, but it'd thrash Russia in any conventional encounter in north eastern Europe.

    He'd get his arse handed to him if he tried and he knows it.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Kaufman will also be the new Father of the House.
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    viewcode said:

    Speedy said:

    ...I can't understand why the unnecessary fear that Russia is going to invade NATO?...

    The logic goes as follows:

    * Putin has cited the presence of Russophone minorities in Georgia and Ukraine as an excuse to support the violent establishment of Russophile enclaves in those countries.
    * The Baltics have Russophone minorities
    * The Baltics can do the math

    That explains why the Baltics are frightened. Given that Putin has motive and the means to start dissecting them, and there are precedents for him doing so, their fears are justified and necessary. Given that they are NATO and therefore allies, we are obliged to help them.
    Putin doesn't have the means, it'd be a clear article 5 job.

    The western military may be a bit ropey at street fighting in the middle east, but it'd thrash Russia in any conventional encounter in north eastern Europe.

    He'd get his arse handed to him if he tried and he knows it.
    Kaliningrad is surrounded on three sides by NATO and EU territory, the fourth being the Baltic Sea.
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    What on earth makes you think that the Libdems have abused this 'safe' seat? Labour gained this seat from the Libdems back in 1997 and held onto it until the 2005 GE, the Libdems actually fell back to third place behind both Labour and the SNP in 1997 and 2001 before Danny Alexander regained the seat for the Libdems after the 2005 boundary changes. There is no doubt that the Libdems benefited from those 2005 boundary changes in Inverness East, Nairn and Lochaber, Gordon and West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine.

    But don't for a minute underestimate the hard work that Danny Alexander and local Libdem party put into not only regaining this seat in 2005 from third place, but also the longer term effort they put into retaining it and increasing Danny's majority in 2010. I grew up in this constituency, although ironically most of my old friends from home are long time active members of the SNP from long before the advent of Salmond/Sturgeon and the Indy Referendum.

    Even if you are correct and the SNP do win this seat at the GE, where do you get the idea that they will automatically then make this a safe seat where both the Libdems or Labour would have failed over the last two decades?!
    Speedy said:

    The 19 year old SNP challenger to Douglas Alexander http://bit.ly/1zUySqT

    What do you think of her, Mike?
    I wouldn't vote for a 19 year old whatever the party. The Record will want to get their teeth into SNP candidates in same way the the media has had fun with some UKIP selections.

    This choice is showing a lack of respect for the voters.

    But Inverness will turn into a very safe SNP seat, every party abuses their safe seats.
    The SNP can put anyone in Inverness and still win.
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    Nuns! Drink! Feck!
  • Options

    Nuns! Drink! Feck!

    Nun of the above!
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    Twitter
    Jane Merrick @janemerrick23 · 38 mins 38 minutes ago
    Is @GeneralBoles awake? Don't think I can get to sleep without a quick 'shop of the Abbess singing How do you solve a problem like Tristram?

    Iain Martin @iainmartin1 · 50 mins 50 minutes ago
    Tomorrow… Labour spin doctor: "You have to say sorry to the nuns." Tristram: "But this is ridiculous!" Labour spin doctor: "Tristram…"

    Iain Martin ‏@iainmartin1 1h1 hour ago
    Tomorrow, by midday… Tristram Hunt: "I have the utmost respect for nuns and all the work that they do."

    Alastair StewartVerified account ‏@alstewitn
    @iainmartin1 ...or 'Tough on nuns, tough on the causes of nuns'.

    Iain Martin @iainmartin1 · 2 hrs 2 hours ago
    Nuns on the run from Labour. #tristramhunt #nungate @bbcquestiontime

    And finally in true Malcolm Tucker 'The Thick of It' style..
    Damian McBride @DPMcBride · 2 hrs 2 hours ago
    Oh Hunty. My mum spent most of her career teaching in a 'convent school', working alongside nuns. They gave incredible educations, you dick.

    Nuns! Drink! Feck!

  • Options
    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Pulpstar said:
    I don't doubt christina had some great teachers who were nuns. There are also some goddamn awful teachers who are nuns, too.

    The nun factor is irrelevant.
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    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    edited February 2015

    viewcode said:

    Speedy said:

    ...I can't understand why the unnecessary fear that Russia is going to invade NATO?...

    The logic goes as follows:

    * Putin has cited the presence of Russophone minorities in Georgia and Ukraine as an excuse to support the violent establishment of Russophile enclaves in those countries.
    * The Baltics have Russophone minorities
    * The Baltics can do the math

    That explains why the Baltics are frightened. Given that Putin has motive and the means to start dissecting them, and there are precedents for him doing so, their fears are justified and necessary. Given that they are NATO and therefore allies, we are obliged to help them.
    Putin doesn't have the means, it'd be a clear article 5 job.

    The western military may be a bit ropey at street fighting in the middle east, but it'd thrash Russia in any conventional encounter in north eastern Europe.

    He'd get his arse handed to him if he tried and he knows it.
    Kaliningrad is surrounded on three sides by NATO and EU territory, the fourth being the Baltic Sea.
    And the EU will do what exactly? Tell them you can't fire rockets at us because they haven't passed some Health & Safety inspection?
  • Options
    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    Jane Merrick @janemerrick23 · 38 mins 38 minutes ago
    Is @GeneralBoles awake? Don't think I can get to sleep without a quick 'shop of the Abbess singing How do you solve a problem like Tristram?

    Iain Martin @iainmartin1 · 50 mins 50 minutes ago
    Tomorrow… Labour spin doctor: "You have to say sorry to the nuns." Tristram: "But this is ridiculous!" Labour spin doctor: "Tristram…"

    Iain Martin ‏@iainmartin1 1h1 hour ago
    Tomorrow, by midday… Tristram Hunt: "I have the utmost respect for nuns and all the work that they do."

    Alastair StewartVerified account ‏@alstewitn
    @iainmartin1 ...or 'Tough on nuns, tough on the causes of nuns'.

    Iain Martin @iainmartin1 · 2 hrs 2 hours ago
    Nuns on the run from Labour. #tristramhunt #nungate @bbcquestiontime

    And finally in true Malcolm Tucker 'The Thick of It' style..
    Damian McBride @DPMcBride · 2 hrs 2 hours ago
    Oh Hunty. My mum spent most of her career teaching in a 'convent school', working alongside nuns. They gave incredible educations, you dick.


    Nuns! Drink! Feck!

    Tristram should go with;

    "Some of my best friends are nuns"
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    Pong said:

    Pulpstar said:
    I don't doubt christina had some great teachers who were nuns. There are also some goddamn awful teachers who are nuns, too.

    The nun factor is irrelevant.
    So is Tristram Hunt.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    Pong said:

    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    Jane Merrick @janemerrick23 · 38 mins 38 minutes ago
    Is @GeneralBoles awake? Don't think I can get to sleep without a quick 'shop of the Abbess singing How do you solve a problem like Tristram?

    Iain Martin @iainmartin1 · 50 mins 50 minutes ago
    Tomorrow… Labour spin doctor: "You have to say sorry to the nuns." Tristram: "But this is ridiculous!" Labour spin doctor: "Tristram…"

    Iain Martin ‏@iainmartin1 1h1 hour ago
    Tomorrow, by midday… Tristram Hunt: "I have the utmost respect for nuns and all the work that they do."

    Alastair StewartVerified account ‏@alstewitn
    @iainmartin1 ...or 'Tough on nuns, tough on the causes of nuns'.

    Iain Martin @iainmartin1 · 2 hrs 2 hours ago
    Nuns on the run from Labour. #tristramhunt #nungate @bbcquestiontime

    And finally in true Malcolm Tucker 'The Thick of It' style..
    Damian McBride @DPMcBride · 2 hrs 2 hours ago
    Oh Hunty. My mum spent most of her career teaching in a 'convent school', working alongside nuns. They gave incredible educations, you dick.


    Nuns! Drink! Feck!

    Tristram should go with;

    "Some of my best friends are nuns"
    Did

    Did he actually say "every time I see a nun I feel pride"? I assume not, but wouldn't put it past him!
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    The BBC coverage of Nungate:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-31159643
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    It's comical. Perhaps more comical is the reaction to his comment.
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    Dair said:

    It's comical. Perhaps more comical is the reaction to his comment.
    What would be the reaction if Hunt had said "Imams" or "Rabbis"?
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Dair said:

    It's comical. Perhaps more comical is the reaction to his comment.
    What would be the reaction if Hunt had said "Imams" or "Rabbis"?
    Reactions in politics are mainly comical. Like your reaction where you felt it was wrong to state that average LE in Scotland was 4 years younger than in rUK.
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    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    It's comical. Perhaps more comical is the reaction to his comment.
    What would be the reaction if Hunt had said "Imams" or "Rabbis"?
    Reactions in politics are mainly comical. Like your reaction where you felt it was wrong to state that average LE in Scotland was 4 years younger than in rUK.
    Nun! Feck! Nun-Sequitur!
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    What is it with Australians and prime ministers.
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    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    It's comical. Perhaps more comical is the reaction to his comment.
    What would be the reaction if Hunt had said "Imams" or "Rabbis"?
    Reactions in politics are mainly comical. Like your reaction where you felt it was wrong to state that average LE in Scotland was 4 years younger than in rUK.
    I didn't think it was "wrong" - just the first time I'd read anyone boasting about it......
This discussion has been closed.