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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : February 5th 2015

SystemSystem Posts: 12,215
edited February 2015 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : February 5th 2015

Brimington on Derbyshire (Lab Defence)
Result of council at last election (2013): Labour 43, Conservatives 18, Liberal Democrats 3 (Labour majority of 22)
Result of ward at last election (2013): Labour 1,857 (69%), Conservatives 301 (11%), Liberal Democrats 250 (9%), Independent (Mullins) 175 (6%), Independent (Mann) 119 (4%)
Candidates duly nominated:

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • Harry does a fantastic job every week with these local by election previews. It must absorb a lot of his time and we owe him thanks for his contribution.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    :)
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Please can someone explain to me what has been going on on Betfair over the last few days.

    No movement in the polls yet Con most seats has gone from 2 to 1.7.

    I really can't see how Ashcroft's Scottish polls can have had much effect - they have given no new information.

    So what is going on?
  • WilliamO said:

    Harry does a fantastic job every week with these local by election previews. It must absorb a lot of his time and we owe him thanks for his contribution.

    Like.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    MikeL said:

    Please can someone explain to me what has been going on on Betfair over the last few days.

    No movement in the polls yet Con most seats has gone from 2 to 1.7.

    I really can't see how Ashcroft's Scottish polls can have had much effect - they have given no new information.

    So what is going on?

    Misreading and over reacting
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    13 weeks to go!
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    MikeL said:

    Please can someone explain to me what has been going on on Betfair over the last few days.

    No movement in the polls yet Con most seats has gone from 2 to 1.7.

    I really can't see how Ashcroft's Scottish polls can have had much effect - they have given no new information.

    So what is going on?

    I wonder if it's punters reacting to the mood music? Lots of Ed is Crap reporting in the media, poor performance at PMQs, Bill Somebody, Business leaders saying Labour isn't up to it, the Ashcroft Scottish polls, the imbalance in money to spend on the election campaigns, swing back etc ....


  • isam said:

    MikeL said:

    Please can someone explain to me what has been going on on Betfair over the last few days.

    No movement in the polls yet Con most seats has gone from 2 to 1.7.

    I really can't see how Ashcroft's Scottish polls can have had much effect - they have given no new information.

    So what is going on?

    Misreading and over reacting
    Hmmm.

    There are a lot of money makers out there who work the markets, spot the trends, adjust from knowledge, but who don't shout loud on political betting.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    JKenny said:

    isam said:

    MikeL said:

    Please can someone explain to me what has been going on on Betfair over the last few days.

    No movement in the polls yet Con most seats has gone from 2 to 1.7.

    I really can't see how Ashcroft's Scottish polls can have had much effect - they have given no new information.

    So what is going on?

    Misreading and over reacting
    Hmmm.

    There are a lot of money makers out there who work the markets, spot the trends, adjust from knowledge, but who don't shout loud on political betting.
    Are there? Betting on politics is like the FA Vase of the betting industry.. not many people are interested and it takes about a tenner to move a market
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    This by-election is very close to me, about the UKIP vote will be the one to watch here.

    Very very safe Labour
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Thanks to Harry.Detailed analysis,such as Thresher and Rawlings,of local election results remains a constant despite the revolution of UNS,a good guide to the outcome of GE2015.Before this we have the trends guys best opportunities of the year at Cheltenham.
    The best way for Labour to defeat Ukip is to stand for common ownership.Rail is clearly where the public are in terms of creating a Peoples Railway.Nationalisation need not be a dirty word any more.This is the sort of policy to inspire people to vote Labour in Derbyshire.Never forget Bombardier.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Is there a YOUGOV later?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    WilliamO said:

    Harry does a fantastic job every week with these local by election previews. It must absorb a lot of his time and we owe him thanks for his contribution.

    Hear hear. And he never gets banned for being naughty.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    stjohn said:

    MikeL said:

    Please can someone explain to me what has been going on on Betfair over the last few days.

    No movement in the polls yet Con most seats has gone from 2 to 1.7.

    I really can't see how Ashcroft's Scottish polls can have had much effect - they have given no new information.

    So what is going on?

    I wonder if it's punters reacting to the mood music? Lots of Ed is Crap reporting in the media, poor performance at PMQs, Bill Somebody, Business leaders saying Labour isn't up to it, the Ashcroft Scottish polls, the imbalance in money to spend on the election campaigns, swing back etc ....
    Yes, all very sensible points to make.

    I just think we should be seeing poll movement to justify it - unless the market was mispriced beforehand - which is possible.

    Con start 49 ahead. Con should gain more from LD than Lab gains from LD. Not many - let's say 5. Then let's say 20 Lab losses to SNP - still a lot but allows for some Lab recovery.

    So that's a Con lead of 74. So 37 Lab gains from Con for a tie.

    Then factor in Kellner says he expects 12 Con seats to be held vs Lab that would fall on UNS - ie incumbency bonus.

    So the tipping point is the vote shares which under UNS give 49 Lab gains from Con.

    Does anyone have those vote shares?
  • stjohn said:

    MikeL said:

    Please can someone explain to me what has been going on on Betfair over the last few days.

    No movement in the polls yet Con most seats has gone from 2 to 1.7.

    I really can't see how Ashcroft's Scottish polls can have had much effect - they have given no new information.

    So what is going on?

    I wonder if it's punters reacting to the mood music? Lots of Ed is Crap reporting in the media, poor performance at PMQs, Bill Somebody, Business leaders saying Labour isn't up to it, the Ashcroft Scottish polls, the imbalance in money to spend on the election campaigns, swing back etc ....


    Tory punters are much more selective in the information they let influence them. So Ashcroft polls showing LAB collapse in Scotland are good and to be taken into account. Ashcroft polls showing the Tories struggling to win LD seats in England are to be ignored.

    Given the huge challenge presented by the electoral system and the fact that LAB's LD crutch is still there though a little shorter the blue task is daunting. They've invested so much in the "Ed is crap" narrative.

    Today I bet on LAB most seats at 2.5 which I think is a good bet.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited February 2015
    MikeL said:

    Please can someone explain to me what has been going on on Betfair over the last few days.

    No movement in the polls yet Con most seats has gone from 2 to 1.7.

    I really can't see how Ashcroft's Scottish polls can have had much effect - they have given no new information.

    So what is going on?

    What is going on is Scotland. Yes, of course you are right that the Ashcroft poll gave no new information, but the difference it has made is that people believe it. I must say I'm slightly puzzled as to why they believe it more than the 10 or so Scottish polls since 1st November, but it has had a dramatic effect on sentiment. Just look at the SNP prices.

    I think stjohn also makes a good point about the mood music.

    Fundamentally, though, it's about focus. Punters, and the media, are finally getting round to consider the election as an imminent reality.

    The big question is whether voters in general will follow as the election nears. That is the big question for betting on this GE.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    stjohn said:

    MikeL said:

    Please can someone explain to me what has been going on on Betfair over the last few days.

    No movement in the polls yet Con most seats has gone from 2 to 1.7.

    I really can't see how Ashcroft's Scottish polls can have had much effect - they have given no new information.

    So what is going on?

    I wonder if it's punters reacting to the mood music? Lots of Ed is Crap reporting in the media, poor performance at PMQs, Bill Somebody, Business leaders saying Labour isn't up to it, the Ashcroft Scottish polls, the imbalance in money to spend on the election campaigns, swing back etc ....


    Tory punters are much more selective in the information they let influence them. So Ashcroft polls showing LAB collapse in Scotland are good and to be taken into account. Ashcroft polls showing the Tories struggling to win LD seats in England are to be ignored.

    Given the huge challenge presented by the electoral system and the fact that LAB's LD crutch is still there though a little shorter the blue task is daunting. They've invested so much in the "Ed is crap" narrative.

    Today I bet on LAB most seats at 2.5 which I think is a good bet.
    92 days and no removal van required! :)
  • stjohn said:

    MikeL said:

    Please can someone explain to me what has been going on on Betfair over the last few days.

    No movement in the polls yet Con most seats has gone from 2 to 1.7.

    I really can't see how Ashcroft's Scottish polls can have had much effect - they have given no new information.

    So what is going on?

    I wonder if it's punters reacting to the mood music? Lots of Ed is Crap reporting in the media, poor performance at PMQs, Bill Somebody, Business leaders saying Labour isn't up to it, the Ashcroft Scottish polls, the imbalance in money to spend on the election campaigns, swing back etc ....


    Tory punters are much more selective in the information they let influence them. So Ashcroft polls showing LAB collapse in Scotland are good and to be taken into account. Ashcroft polls showing the Tories struggling to win LD seats in England are to be ignored.

    Given the huge challenge presented by the electoral system and the fact that LAB's LD crutch is still there though a little shorter the blue task is daunting. They've invested so much in the "Ed is crap" narrative.

    Today I bet on LAB most seats at 2.5 which I think is a good bet.
    Given the Scottish situation, Labour will have to make around 37-42 gains direct from the Tories to make your bet a winner. Or, in other words, the Tories 40:40 strategy will have to be a complete and total failure. Against Ed Miliband. Who's facing wipeout in Scotland. Who trails Cameron massively in any forced choice question. And has leadership ratings to match Michael Foot.

    I just don't think that's going to happen. But, it's your money.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Bloody Hell less than a mile away and I hadnt a clue it was happening

    So much for the LAB ground game.
  • Tory punters are much more selective in the information they let influence them. So Ashcroft polls showing LAB collapse in Scotland are good and to be taken into account. Ashcroft polls showing the Tories struggling to win LD seats in England are to be ignored.

    Hmm, not so sure about that. Ashcroft polls many months before the election, showing a not very dramatic picture, compared with an Ashcroft set of polls 3 months before the election showing the biggest rout for a major political party in the UK since 1997. It's hardly surprising that punters, be they Tory or otherwise, have been more struck by the latter.
  • stjohn said:

    MikeL said:

    Please can someone explain to me what has been going on on Betfair over the last few days.

    No movement in the polls yet Con most seats has gone from 2 to 1.7.

    I really can't see how Ashcroft's Scottish polls can have had much effect - they have given no new information.

    So what is going on?

    I wonder if it's punters reacting to the mood music? Lots of Ed is Crap reporting in the media, poor performance at PMQs, Bill Somebody, Business leaders saying Labour isn't up to it, the Ashcroft Scottish polls, the imbalance in money to spend on the election campaigns, swing back etc ....


    Tory punters are much more selective in the information they let influence them. So Ashcroft polls showing LAB collapse in Scotland are good and to be taken into account. Ashcroft polls showing the Tories struggling to win LD seats in England are to be ignored.

    Given the huge challenge presented by the electoral system and the fact that LAB's LD crutch is still there though a little shorter the blue task is daunting. They've invested so much in the "Ed is crap" narrative.

    Today I bet on LAB most seats at 2.5 which I think is a good bet.
    Given the Scottish situation, Labour will have to make around 37-42 gains direct from the Tories to make your bet a winner. Or, in other words, the Tories 40:40 strategy will have to be a complete and total failure. Against Ed Miliband. Who's facing wipeout in Scotland. Who trails Cameron massively in any forced choice question. And has leadership ratings to match Michael Foot.

    I just don't think that's going to happen. But, it's your money.
    I'm a trader betting on the betting not final outcomes. If I think a price is good I get on in the expectation that it will move to my benefit. I then get out at what seems the best moment.

    Generally I have yet to see any refutation of my point on the English challenge where the Tories are failing to get anywhere near the 11.4% lead they need. Below that almost certainly means seat losses to LAB.





  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Not sure why people are complaining that markets are moving the way they want them to. Strange.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    One of tonights candidates was my LD councillor in 2010

    Got thrashed as LD in 2011

    Stood for UKIP in 2012 got thrashed

    Stood as independent in 2013 got thrashed

    Tried to join Lab party in 2013 (rejected)

    Mick Bagshaw is a complete w*****er.

    Manges to keep getting in local paper campaigning next to every pothole in Chesterfield
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,381
    So Ave-It and Jack's ARSE are both in agreement that we'll have a continuation of Con-Dem government after the next election!!!!!!

    That's it all sewn up then. No need to go to the polling booths really is there?

  • stjohn said:

    MikeL said:

    Please can someone explain to me what has been going on on Betfair over the last few days.

    No movement in the polls yet Con most seats has gone from 2 to 1.7.

    I really can't see how Ashcroft's Scottish polls can have had much effect - they have given no new information.

    So what is going on?

    I wonder if it's punters reacting to the mood music? Lots of Ed is Crap reporting in the media, poor performance at PMQs, Bill Somebody, Business leaders saying Labour isn't up to it, the Ashcroft Scottish polls, the imbalance in money to spend on the election campaigns, swing back etc ....


    Tory punters are much more selective in the information they let influence them. So Ashcroft polls showing LAB collapse in Scotland are good and to be taken into account. Ashcroft polls showing the Tories struggling to win LD seats in England are to be ignored.

    Given the huge challenge presented by the electoral system and the fact that LAB's LD crutch is still there though a little shorter the blue task is daunting. They've invested so much in the "Ed is crap" narrative.

    Today I bet on LAB most seats at 2.5 which I think is a good bet.
    Given the Scottish situation, Labour will have to make around 37-42 gains direct from the Tories to make your bet a winner. Or, in other words, the Tories 40:40 strategy will have to be a complete and total failure. Against Ed Miliband. Who's facing wipeout in Scotland. Who trails Cameron massively in any forced choice question. And has leadership ratings to match Michael Foot.

    I just don't think that's going to happen. But, it's your money.
    I'm a trader betting on the betting not final outcomes. If I think a price is good I get on in the expectation that it will move to my benefit. I then get out at what seems the best moment.

    Generally I have yet to see any refutation of my point on the English challenge where the Tories are failing to get anywhere near the 11.4% lead they need. Below that almost certainly means seat losses to LAB.

    Fair enough, but I don't think it's a good trading bet. Sorry. I think the Labour rating will at best stabilise at the current level; more likely than not - it will deteriorate. Please: don't waste your money.

    You keep mentioning this magical 11.4% lead. But that assumes voting patterns and densities fall exactly the same as last time. And the landscape has changed massively since 2010GE. It doesn't even factor in any incumbency bonus.

    I put it to you that if the Tories clock up a lead like that over Labour this time, they will be close to (or even have) an overall majority.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    @RichardOsley: Heard neighbours of Ed Miliband in Dartmouth Park were being doorstepped earlier by a nat newspaper looking for angry mansion tax opinions
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    GIN1138 said:

    So Ave-It and Jack's ARSE are both in agreement that we'll have a continuation of Con-Dem government after the next election!!!!!!

    That's it all sewn up then. No need to go to the polling booths really is there?

    It's all over now!

    LAB + SNP + SF = :)
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    edited February 2015
    Tory 1 lead out of 11 opinion polls. Labour ahead by 1%

    PULLINGGAWAYINJANUARYLOLAMENDOUS!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,567
    edited February 2015
    LAB - 33% (-) CON - 32% (-2) UKIP - 15% (+2) LDEM - 9% (+3) GRN - 5% (-2)

    Oh well, my mistake about the Tory lead. As you were. :-)
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    Tory 1 lead out of 11 opinion polls. Labour ahead by 1%

    PULLINGGAWAYINJANUARYLOLAMENDOUS!

    Yawn too much focus on polls mid term :)
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited February 2015
    Snigger.... Redgasm.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    LAB - 33% (-) CON - 32% (-2) UKIP - 15% (+2) LDEM - 9% (+3) GRN - 5% (-2)

    Oh well, my mistake about the Tory lead. As you were. :-)

    Double swingback/crossover :-)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    LAB - 33% (-) CON - 32% (-2) UKIP - 15% (+2) LDEM - 9% (+3) GRN - 5% (-2)

    Oh well, my mistake about the Tory lead. As you were. :-)

    Double swingback/crossover :-)
    Huppert HOLD !
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Ave_it said:

    Tory 1 lead out of 11 opinion polls. Labour ahead by 1%

    PULLINGGAWAYINJANUARYLOLAMENDOUS!

    Yawn too much focus on polls mid term :)
    ARF!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Tonights YG EICIPM
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    FPT @peter_the_punter

    Never played Kalooki, I'm afraid. My repertoire is rather limited: Bridge and its nearest relatives (Piquet, German Whist, Hearts, Oh Hell!) and the Canastas (Gin Rummy, Succession).

    The best game I played was Succession - basically Rummy with the Kings & Queens of England (each House representing a suit). I genuinely think it should be encouraged in schools as a way to learn history!
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    edited February 2015

    stjohn said:

    MikeL said:

    Please can someone explain to me what has been going on on Betfair over the last few days.

    No movement in the polls yet Con most seats has gone from 2 to 1.7.

    I really can't see how Ashcroft's Scottish polls can have had much effect - they have given no new information.

    So what is going on?

    I wonder if it's punters reacting to the mood music? Lots of Ed is Crap reporting in the media, poor performance at PMQs, Bill Somebody, Business leaders saying Labour isn't up to it, the Ashcroft Scottish polls, the imbalance in money to spend on the election campaigns, swing back etc ....


    Tory punters are much more selective in the information they let influence them. So Ashcroft polls showing LAB collapse in Scotland are good and to be taken into account. Ashcroft polls showing the Tories struggling to win LD seats in England are to be ignored.

    Given the huge challenge presented by the electoral system and the fact that LAB's LD crutch is still there though a little shorter the blue task is daunting. They've invested so much in the "Ed is crap" narrative.

    Today I bet on LAB most seats at 2.5 which I think is a good bet.
    Given the Scottish situation, Labour will have to make around 37-42 gains direct from the Tories to make your bet a winner. Or, in other words, the Tories 40:40 strategy will have to be a complete and total failure. Against Ed Miliband. Who's facing wipeout in Scotland. Who trails Cameron massively in any forced choice question. And has leadership ratings to match Michael Foot.

    I just don't think that's going to happen. But, it's your money.
    I'm a trader betting on the betting not final outcomes. If I think a price is good I get on in the expectation that it will move to my benefit. I then get out at what seems the best moment.

    Generally I have yet to see any refutation of my point on the English challenge where the Tories are failing to get anywhere near the 11.4% lead they need. Below that almost certainly means seat losses to LAB.
    Sure but you need approx 40 Lab gains to win your bet, not just one Lab gain.

    I asked earlier - does anyone know the vote share cut-off point for 40 Lab gains from Con under UNS (or 50 if we allow for Kellner).

    This is surely the key information required for anyone making this bet - I'm surprised nobody on here appears to know it!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Tonights YG EICIPM

    And Huppert is Dep PM ?
  • Back in early October the Tories had 3 consecutive CON leads - something that's not been repeated since
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    stjohn said:

    MikeL said:

    Please can someone explain to me what has been going on on Betfair over the last few days.

    No movement in the polls yet Con most seats has gone from 2 to 1.7.

    I really can't see how Ashcroft's Scottish polls can have had much effect - they have given no new information.

    So what is going on?

    I wonder if it's punters reacting to the mood music? Lots of Ed is Crap reporting in the media, poor performance at PMQs, Bill Somebody, Business leaders saying Labour isn't up to it, the Ashcroft Scottish polls, the imbalance in money to spend on the election campaigns, swing back etc ....


    Tory punters are much more selective in the information they let influence them. So Ashcroft polls showing LAB collapse in Scotland are good and to be taken into account. Ashcroft polls showing the Tories struggling to win LD seats in England are to be ignored.

    Given the huge challenge presented by the electoral system and the fact that LAB's LD crutch is still there though a little shorter the blue task is daunting. They've invested so much in the "Ed is crap" narrative.

    Today I bet on LAB most seats at 2.5 which I think is a good bet.
    Given the Scottish situation, Labour will have to make around 37-42 gains direct from the Tories to make your bet a winner. Or, in other words, the Tories 40:40 strategy will have to be a complete and total failure. Against Ed Miliband. Who's facing wipeout in Scotland. Who trails Cameron massively in any forced choice question. And has leadership ratings to match Michael Foot.

    I just don't think that's going to happen. But, it's your money.
    I'm a trader betting on the betting not final outcomes. If I think a price is good I get on in the expectation that it will move to my benefit. I then get out at what seems the best moment.

    Generally I have yet to see any refutation of my point on the English challenge where the Tories are failing to get anywhere near the 11.4% lead they need. Below that almost certainly means seat losses to LAB.





    It's been challenged several times, most eloquently by @DavidL.

    The 11.4% is based on constant efficiency of vote. Labour's advantage will be greatly diminished this time round.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    stjohn said:

    MikeL said:

    Please can someone explain to me what has been going on on Betfair over the last few days.

    No movement in the polls yet Con most seats has gone from 2 to 1.7.

    I really can't see how Ashcroft's Scottish polls can have had much effect - they have given no new information.

    So what is going on?

    I wonder if it's punters reacting to the mood music? Lots of Ed is Crap reporting in the media, poor performance at PMQs, Bill Somebody, Business leaders saying Labour isn't up to it, the Ashcroft Scottish polls, the imbalance in money to spend on the election campaigns, swing back etc ....


    Tory punters are much more selective in the information they let influence them. So Ashcroft polls showing LAB collapse in Scotland are good and to be taken into account. Ashcroft polls showing the Tories struggling to win LD seats in England are to be ignored.

    Given the huge challenge presented by the electoral system and the fact that LAB's LD crutch is still there though a little shorter the blue task is daunting. They've invested so much in the "Ed is crap" narrative.

    Today I bet on LAB most seats at 2.5 which I think is a good bet.
    I just don't think that's going to happen. But, it's your money.
    I'm a trader betting on the betting not final outcomes. If I think a price is good I get on in the expectation that it will move to my benefit. I then get out at what seems the best moment.

    Generally I have yet to see any refutation of my point on the English challenge where the Tories are failing to get anywhere near the 11.4% lead they need. Below that almost certainly means seat losses to LAB.

    Fair enough, but I don't think it's a good trading bet. Sorry. I think the Labour rating will at best stabilise at the current level; more likely than not - it will deteriorate. Please: don't waste your money.

    You keep mentioning this magical 11.4% lead. But that assumes voting patterns and densities fall exactly the same as last time. And the landscape has changed massively since 2010GE. It doesn't even factor in any incumbency bonus.

    I put it to you that if the Tories clock up a lead like that over Labour this time, they will be close to (or even have) an overall majority.
    I'd like to know why people keep using the phrase "trading bet".. which bets aren't trading bets then? These would be bets that you wouldn't ever lay off?

    Always sounds like an excuse to make a punt sound more snazzy than it is to me
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    MikeL said:

    stjohn said:

    MikeL said:

    Please can someone explain to me what has been going on on Betfair over the last few days.

    No movement in the polls yet Con most seats has gone from 2 to 1.7.

    I really can't see how Ashcroft's Scottish polls can have had much effect - they have given no new information.

    So what is going on?

    I wonder if it's punters reacting to the mood music? Lots of Ed is Crap reporting in the media, poor performance at PMQs, Bill Somebody, Business leaders saying Labour isn't up to it, the Ashcroft Scottish polls, the imbalance in money to spend on the election campaigns, swing back etc ....


    Tory punters are much more selective in the information they let influence them. So Ashcroft polls showing LAB collapse in Scotland are good and to be taken into account. Ashcroft polls showing the Tories struggling to win LD seats in England are to be ignored.

    Given the huge challenge presented by the electoral system and the fact that LAB's LD crutch is still there though a little shorter the blue task is daunting. They've invested so much in the "Ed is crap" narrative.

    Today I bet on LAB most seats at 2.5 which I think is a good bet.
    Given the Scottish situation, Labour will have to make around 37-42 gains direct from the Tories to make your bet a winner. Or, in other words, the Tories 40:40 strategy will have to be a complete and total failure. Against Ed Miliband. Who's facing wipeout in Scotland. Who trails Cameron massively in any forced choice question. And has leadership ratings to match Michael Foot.

    I just don't think that's going to happen. But, it's your money.
    I'm a trader betting on the betting not final outcomes. If I think a price is good I get on in the expectation that it will move to my benefit. I then get out at what seems the best moment.

    Generally I have yet to see any refutation of my point on the English challenge where the Tories are failing to get anywhere near the 11.4% lead they need. Below that almost certainly means seat losses to LAB.
    Sure but you need approx 40 Lab gains to win your bet, not just one Lab gain.

    I asked earlier - does anyone know the vote share cut-off point for 40 Lab gains from Con under UNS (or 50 if we allow for Kellner).

    This is surely the key information required for anyone making this bet - I'm surprised nobody on here appears to know it!
    The seat is Stevenage (8% Tory lead).
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    TGOHF said:

    LAB - 33% (-) CON - 32% (-2) UKIP - 15% (+2) LDEM - 9% (+3) GRN - 5% (-2)

    Oh well, my mistake about the Tory lead. As you were. :-)

    Double swingback/crossover :-)
    Huppert HOLD !
    Cambridge LAB gain IMO
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    CON being 3% ahead of LAB will be enough in England!
  • stjohn said:

    MikeL said:

    Please can someone explain to me what has been going on on Betfair over the last few days.

    No movement in the polls yet Con most seats has gone from 2 to 1.7.

    I really can't see how Ashcroft's Scottish polls can have had much effect - they have given no new information.

    So what is going on?

    I wonder if it's punters reacting to the mood music? Lots of Ed is Crap reporting in the media, poor performance at PMQs, Bill Somebody, Business leaders saying Labour isn't up to it, the Ashcroft Scottish polls, the imbalance in money to spend on the election campaigns, swing back etc ....


    Tory punters are much more selective in the information they let influence them. So Ashcroft polls showing LAB collapse in Scotland are good and to be taken into account. Ashcroft polls showing the Tories struggling to win LD seats in England are to be ignored.
    OGH. This is a general view you hold as if all Conservative posters on here have lemming like tendencies. As the PB person with the most accurate forecast of LD cllr losses in 2012...... what do I know? I just cannot see how the LDs keep 30+ seats with a UK vote share of 9% or 10%. There are all these extra Green candidates in 2015.... But, OGH's optimism on LD incumbency has acted as a deterent to betting much against the LDs. Good night.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    No UKIP rep on QT tonight because Suzanne Evans is ill and the BBC would only accept a female replacement
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Looking at AndyJS's spreadsheet, it looks as if Labour will make those sorts of gains with a con lead of less than 7.5% UNS.

    I expect UNS not to function well. Labour will have a lot of seconds in Scotland, UKIP in SE England.

    I think that will level the playing field significantly. FPTP may turn out quite proportional, at least for the big two.
    MikeL said:

    stjohn said:

    MikeL said:

    Please can someone explain to me what has been going on on Betfair over the last few days.

    No movement in the polls yet Con most seats has gone from 2 to 1.7.

    I really can't see how Ashcroft's Scottish polls can have had much effect - they have given no new information.

    So what is going on?

    I wonder if it's punters reacting to the mood music? Lots of Ed is Crap reporting in the media, poor performance at PMQs, Bill Somebody, Business leaders saying Labour isn't up to it, the Ashcroft Scottish polls, the imbalance in money to spend on the election campaigns, swing back etc ....
    Yes, all very sensible points to make.

    I just think we should be seeing poll movement to justify it - unless the market was mispriced beforehand - which is possible.

    Con start 49 ahead. Con should gain more from LD than Lab gains from LD. Not many - let's say 5. Then let's say 20 Lab losses to SNP - still a lot but allows for some Lab recovery.

    So that's a Con lead of 74. So 37 Lab gains from Con for a tie.

    Then factor in Kellner says he expects 12 Con seats to be held vs Lab that would fall on UNS - ie incumbency bonus.

    So the tipping point is the vote shares which under UNS give 49 Lab gains from Con.

    Does anyone have those vote shares?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Awful figures for Labour on Betfair Exchange. They're in the 20s for Ov Maj:

    http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?nodeId=MENU:2707982&id=1.101416490
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    Charles said:

    stjohn said:

    MikeL said:

    Please can someone explain to me what has been going on on Betfair over the last few days.

    No movement in the polls yet Con most seats has gone from 2 to 1.7.

    I really can't see how Ashcroft's Scottish polls can have had much effect - they have given no new information.

    So what is going on?

    I wonder if it's punters reacting to the mood music? Lots of Ed is Crap reporting in the media, poor performance at PMQs, Bill Somebody, Business leaders saying Labour isn't up to it, the Ashcroft Scottish polls, the imbalance in money to spend on the election campaigns, swing back etc ....


    Tory punters are much more selective in the information they let influence them. So Ashcroft polls showing LAB collapse in Scotland are good and to be taken into account. Ashcroft polls showing the Tories struggling to win LD seats in England are to be ignored.

    Given the huge challenge presented by the electoral system and the fact that LAB's LD crutch is still there though a little shorter the blue task is daunting. They've invested so much in the "Ed is crap" narrative.

    Today I bet on LAB most seats at 2.5 which I think is a good bet.
    Given the Scottish situation, Labour will have to make around 37-42 gains direct from the Tories to make your bet a winner. Or, in other words, the Tories 40:40 strategy will have to be a complete and total failure. Against Ed Miliband. Who's facing wipeout in Scotland. Who trails Cameron massively in any forced choice question. And has leadership ratings to match Michael Foot.

    I just don't think that's going to happen. But, it's your money.
    I'm a trader betting on the betting not final outcomes. If I think a price is good I get on in the expectation that it will move to my benefit. I then get out at what seems the best moment.

    Generally I have yet to see any refutation of my point on the English challenge where the Tories are failing to get anywhere near the 11.4% lead they need. Below that almost certainly means seat losses to LAB.





    It's been challenged several times, most eloquently by @DavidL.

    The 11.4% is based on constant efficiency of vote. Labour's advantage will be greatly diminished this time round.
    It would certainly have to be given the Tories don't seem like getting anywhere near that 11.4%. Were it not for Scotland I'd call it near impossible, but it still seems like the Tories need to get pretty lucky to have Labour so diminished in England - surely the Tories should have at least gotten close to that 11.4% figure on a couple of occasions to make the reliance on not needing it this time (they hope) less urgent?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    isam said:

    No UKIP rep on QT tonight because Suzanne Evans is ill and the BBC would only accept a female replacement

    Are the others busy cleaning behind their fridges?

    ;-)
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited February 2015
    The thing is, do you believe the polls as at today are a good indication of the final result, or not?

    If so, then there's a humongously good betting opportunity sitting right in front of you. Forget Lab vs Con; the stand-out bet, if you think that not much will change from the current opinion polls, is to bet on a near-wipeout of Labour in Scotland. You can play it several ways, such as buying the SNP on the spreads, or the lower-risk way of taking the 5/6 on SNP over 39.5 seats. Admittedly it's nothing like as good a bet as when this Tory punter advised buying the SNP on SPIN at 20.5 a few weeks ago, but the margin of safety, if you think not much will change, is still very big.

    On the other hand, perhaps you think, quite reasonably, that when, push comes to shove, the SNP won't do as well as the polls currently show. That's quite possible. However, that exact reasoning has implications for other markets as well.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    kle4 said:

    Charles said:



    It's been challenged several times, most eloquently by @DavidL.

    The 11.4% is based on constant efficiency of vote. Labour's advantage will be greatly diminished this time round.

    It would certainly have to be given the Tories don't seem like getting anywhere near that 11.4%. Were it not for Scotland I'd call it near impossible, but it still seems like the Tories need to get pretty lucky to have Labour so diminished in England - surely the Tories should have at least gotten close to that 11.4% figure on a couple of occasions to make the reliance on not needing it this time (they hope) less urgent?
    They should certainly be higher than they are!

    Pre-Scotland I was assuming hung parliament / LLP. Now I'm leaning towards Coalitious Redux.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    A 1% Labour lead and a few of the PB Hodges get tetchy. God help us if it was 4-5% there would be a riot.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    edited February 2015
    Anyway, January was the pulling away month and February was the consistant and improving lead month. Not just for PB Hodges on here, but didn't one of the Suns ratbags tweet something similar the other day, saying it was what Tory HQ thought would happen, when we had the Tory pollingasm?

    Where did it all go wrong?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578

    Anyway, January was the pulling away month and February was the consistant and improving lead month. Not just for PB Hodges on here, but didn't one of the Suns ratbags tweet something similar the other day, saying it was what Tory HQ thought would happen, when we had the Tory pollingasm?

    Where did it all go wrong?

    It was nonsense?

    No, that's not it. The real action starts in March is all.

    I actually would be glad to see an inexplicable and rapid shift to the Tories, it'd be really entertaining and create some proper doubt (in my mind at least) about the outcome which doesn't rely on the depressing possibilities in the North.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    No UKIP rep on QT tonight because Suzanne Evans is ill and the BBC would only accept a female replacement

    Are the others busy cleaning behind their fridges?

    ;-)
    I don't think the sluts bother!!

    Fair enough if they need to have two women on, but they could have accepted Steven Woolfe (UKIP s replacement for Evans) and nished Freedland
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,381

    Anyway, January was the pulling away month and February was the consistant and improving lead month. Not just for PB Hodges on here, but didn't one of the Suns ratbags tweet something similar the other day, saying it was what Tory HQ thought would happen, when we had the Tory pollingasm?

    Where did it all go wrong?

    I'd rather believe Ave-It and Jack's ARSE over some johnny come lately opinion polling group, so there!

  • The 19 year old SNP challenger to Douglas Alexander http://bit.ly/1zUySqT
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    GIN1138 said:

    Anyway, January was the pulling away month and February was the consistant and improving lead month. Not just for PB Hodges on here, but didn't one of the Suns ratbags tweet something similar the other day, saying it was what Tory HQ thought would happen, when we had the Tory pollingasm?

    Where did it all go wrong?

    I'd rather believe Ave-It and Jack's ARSE over some johnny come lately opinion polling group, so there!

    :-)
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Anyway, January was the pulling away month and February was the consistant and improving lead month. Not just for PB Hodges on here, but didn't one of the Suns ratbags tweet something similar the other day, saying it was what Tory HQ thought would happen, when we had the Tory pollingasm?

    Where did it all go wrong?

    The poster who predicted no crossover before May 2015 asking where it all went wrong?!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,567

    Looking at AndyJS's spreadsheet, it looks as if Labour will make those sorts of gains with a con lead of less than 7.5% UNS.

    I expect UNS not to function well. Labour will have a lot of seconds in Scotland, UKIP in SE England.

    I think that will level the playing field significantly. FPTP may turn out quite proportional, at least for the big two.

    MikeL said:

    stjohn said:

    MikeL said:

    Please can someone explain to me what has been going on on Betfair over the last few days.

    No movement in the polls yet Con most seats has gone from 2 to 1.7.

    I really can't see how Ashcroft's Scottish polls can have had much effect - they have given no new information.

    So what is going on?

    I wonder if it's punters reacting to the mood music? Lots of Ed is Crap reporting in the media, poor performance at PMQs, Bill Somebody, Business leaders saying Labour isn't up to it, the Ashcroft Scottish polls, the imbalance in money to spend on the election campaigns, swing back etc ....
    Yes, all very sensible points to make.

    I just think we should be seeing poll movement to justify it - unless the market was mispriced beforehand - which is possible.

    Con start 49 ahead. Con should gain more from LD than Lab gains from LD. Not many - let's say 5. Then let's say 20 Lab losses to SNP - still a lot but allows for some Lab recovery.

    So that's a Con lead of 74. So 37 Lab gains from Con for a tie.

    Then factor in Kellner says he expects 12 Con seats to be held vs Lab that would fall on UNS - ie incumbency bonus.

    So the tipping point is the vote shares which under UNS give 49 Lab gains from Con.

    Does anyone have those vote shares?
    Interesting analyses. My main query would be the Kellner assumption of incumbency bonus. There is repeated polling evidence that it isn't happening this time - nearly every Ashcroft poll (indeed some show a negative incumbency effect), the Scottish polls and a lot of anecdotal experience. One can debate why this might be - a possible reason is the generally grouchy mood, which prevents sitting MPs from getting a generla feeling of "let's give them another chance" goodwill - but if that's right, then the Tory largest party level requires fewer than 43 Labour gains in England.

    Personally I think the betting markets have over-reacted to the Scottish Ashcroft survey and we will see a correction. As Richard N observes, the survey didn't tell us anything we didn't already suspect. What's happened is that people who don't follow these things that closely have said "What! Wow, that means Labour's doomed." But in England, things are (contrary to my earlier flutter of nervousness) not moving.

  • The 19 year old SNP challenger to Douglas Alexander http://bit.ly/1zUySqT

    What do you think of her, Mike?
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    I'm quite relaxed!

    Hope Mike hasn't backed against CON! :)
  • JWisemannJWisemann Posts: 1,082
    Technically I'd say there hasn't been crossover in terms of anything that couldn't be explained away quite easily by moe and outliers tbf
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    edited February 2015
    RodCrosby said:


    The seat is Stevenage (8% Tory lead).

    Yes, but to be clear, Con won Stevenage by 8% in 2010.

    That means the cut-off is a Con lead 8% LOWER than in 2010,

    ie a Con lead of 11.4% - 8.0% = 3.4% in ENGLAND.

    So, assuming UNS, and other assumption re SNP:

    - OGH wins his bet if Con lead is less than 3.4% IN ENGLAND
    - OGH loses his bet if Con lead is more than 3.4% IN ENGLAND

    And that 3.4% figure falls a bit with any incumbency bonus as per Kellner.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Neil said:

    Anyway, January was the pulling away month and February was the consistant and improving lead month. Not just for PB Hodges on here, but didn't one of the Suns ratbags tweet something similar the other day, saying it was what Tory HQ thought would happen, when we had the Tory pollingasm?

    Where did it all go wrong?

    The poster who predicted no crossover before May 2015 asking where it all went wrong?!
    Yes.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410

    The 19 year old SNP challenger to Douglas Alexander http://bit.ly/1zUySqT

    What do you think of her, Mike?
    Not sure what Mike thinks but...

    I certainly hope she wins, but I can see SLAB throwing the kitchen sink against her in an effort to save wee Dougie, so I've rebacked Labour there to take my stake out the equation in Paisley, Renfrewshire South.

    £0/+£140 something like that.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Pulpstar said:

    The 19 year old SNP challenger to Douglas Alexander http://bit.ly/1zUySqT

    What do you think of her, Mike?
    Not sure what Mike thinks but...

    I certainly hope she wins, but I can see SLAB throwing the kitchen sink against her in an effort to save wee Dougie, so I've rebacked Labour there to take my stake out the equation in Paisley, Renfrewshire South.

    £0/+£140 something like that.
    More chance of Oona Chaplin marrying me than that girl winning there. 100-1 she won't get within 20%
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    The 19 year old SNP challenger to Douglas Alexander http://bit.ly/1zUySqT

    The youngest member of parliament, you can't get any younger than that.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,142

    stjohn said:

    MikeL said:

    Please can someone explain to me what has been going on on Betfair over the last few days.

    No movement in the polls yet Con most seats has gone from 2 to 1.7.

    I really can't see how Ashcroft's Scottish polls can have had much effect - they have given no new information.

    So what is going on?

    I wonder if it's punters reacting to the mood music? Lots of Ed is Crap reporting in the media, poor performance at PMQs, Bill Somebody, Business leaders saying Labour isn't up to it, the Ashcroft Scottish polls, the imbalance in money to spend on the election campaigns, swing back etc ....


    Tory punters are much more selective in the information they let influence them. So Ashcroft polls showing LAB collapse in Scotland are good and to be taken into account. Ashcroft polls showing the Tories struggling to win LD seats in England are to be ignored.

    Given the huge challenge presented by the electoral system and the fact that LAB's LD crutch is still there though a little shorter the blue task is daunting. They've invested so much in the "Ed is crap" narrative.

    Today I bet on LAB most seats at 2.5 which I think is a good bet.
    Given the Scottish situation, Labour will have to make around 37-42 gains direct from the Tories to make your bet a winner. Or, in other words, the Tories 40:40 strategy will have to be a complete and total failure. Against Ed Miliband. Who's facing wipeout in Scotland. Who trails Cameron massively in any forced choice question. And has leadership ratings to match Michael Foot.

    I just don't think that's going to happen. But, it's your money.
    I couldn't agree more Mr Royale. Those concentrating on trends, biases, mid-term crutches (lib dem switchers, anyone) do sometimes seem to forget that this election is held in 650 constituencies, and will be decided in 80 mostly English seats....


  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited February 2015

    The 19 year old SNP challenger to Douglas Alexander http://bit.ly/1zUySqT

    What do you think of her, Mike?
    I wouldn't vote for a 19 year old whatever the party. The Record will want to get their teeth into SNP candidates in same way the the media has had fun with some UKIP selections.

    This choice is showing a lack of respect for the voters.

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2015
    MikeL said:

    RodCrosby said:


    The seat is Stevenage (8% Tory lead).

    Yes, but to be clear, Con won Stevenage by 8% in 2010.

    That means the cut-off is a Con lead 8% LOWER than in 2010,

    ie a Con lead of 11.4% - 8.0% = 3.4% in ENGLAND.

    So, assuming UNS, and other assumption re SNP:

    - OGH wins his bet if Con lead is less than 3.4% IN ENGLAND
    - OGH loses his bet if Con lead is more than 3.4% IN ENGLAND

    And that 3.4% figure falls a bit with any incumbency bonus as per Kellner.
    The latest constituency poll for Stevenage has a Labour lead of 5%: LAB 38, CON 33, UKIP 18, LD 7, GRN 3.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Ave_it said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The 19 year old SNP challenger to Douglas Alexander http://bit.ly/1zUySqT

    What do you think of her, Mike?
    Not sure what Mike thinks but...

    I certainly hope she wins, but I can see SLAB throwing the kitchen sink against her in an effort to save wee Dougie, so I've rebacked Labour there to take my stake out the equation in Paisley, Renfrewshire South.

    £0/+£140 something like that.
    More chance of Oona Chaplin marrying me than that girl winning there. 100-1 she won't get within 20%
    This is precisely why I've taken my stake out. But she still has a good chance and I don't fancy paying more Bookie over-round than is neccesary.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Hmmmm

    UKIP were into 9/4 in Dover and touted as a decent bet

    Now have now drifted to 9/2

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    There's also a chance Sturgeon may sack her. If so, she should do it quickly.
  • Galloway may be OTT but he is good value!
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2015

    A 1% Labour lead and a few of the PB Hodges get tetchy. God help us if it was 4-5% there would be a riot.

    If the Labour lead was 4-5% now with yougov then they would be extremely nervous.
    However a 1% Labour lead is actually the same as a 3-4% lead if scotland hadn't turned into Salmondlandia.
    To work out the effect of scotland the simplest way is to have a 5.5% (for a 3.5% lead) swing to Labour in UNS and then subtract the scottish labour seats from the total.

    The result is 346-41=305 Labour seats (the same as the Tories in 2010).
  • Pulpstar said:

    There's also a chance Sturgeon may sack her. If so, she should do it quickly.

    Tricky, since they've made a great thing about giving children the vote.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983


    This choice is showing a lack of respect for the voters.

    I could point to lots of other selections that could fairly be described as showing lack of respect for voters. I cant imagine what this candidate could have done to be considered as bad as those. If you're good enough you're old enough. Few MPs in the 20th century will have delivered a maiden speech quite like Bernadette Devlin's and she was, what, 21?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    edited February 2015
    I get confused with really young candidates. Obviously it is possible for someone young to make a good elected representative (though I would suggest it is not unreasonable to have a greater onus on them to prove they have suitably mature qualities and the sorts of talent that would justify such a selection), but there seems to be a simultaneous desire in some quarters to see younger and younger people elected as a way of engaging the youth, while also criticizing senior politicians for having no real, lasting experience outside politics and which also means we end up with party leaders in the late 30s and early 40s as they started off pretty young (if not always as MPs so young) and will retire to presumably comfortable directorships and consultancy's and the like as though becoming PM was just a slot to fill on the CV.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410

    Pulpstar said:

    There's also a chance Sturgeon may sack her. If so, she should do it quickly.

    Tricky, since they've made a great thing about giving children the vote.
    What to do, even up my profit there by backing Labour at 5-4 ?

    She does have an 8 pt lead and its most likely slightly more than that...
  • Neil said:


    This choice is showing a lack of respect for the voters.

    I could point to lots of other selections that could fairly be described as showing lack of respect for voters. I cant imagine what this candidate could have done to be considered as bad as those. If you're good enough you're old enough. Few MPs in the 20th century will have delivered a maiden speech quite like Bernadette Devlin's and she was, what, 21?
    Pah! Forget 21-year old MPs, the crusty Tories can cite a Prime Minister of 24. And a rather good one, to boot.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    The 19 year old SNP challenger to Douglas Alexander http://bit.ly/1zUySqT

    Perhaps the crowd reaction (and the history of Paisley) should indicate that this might be a positive to her campaign.
  • Speedy said:


    The latest constituency poll for Stevenage has a Labour lead of 5%: LAB 38, CON 33, UKIP 18, LD 7, GRN 3.

    The same constituency polls show the Tories holding or tied in 5 out 6 of the seats before Stevenage in order of CON-LAB margin though.

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,142
    The market movements this evening were surely pricing in the effects of the appearance of Tristram Hunt on tonight's QT
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2015

    The 19 year old SNP challenger to Douglas Alexander http://bit.ly/1zUySqT

    What do you think of her, Mike?
    I wouldn't vote for a 19 year old whatever the party. The Record will want to get their teeth into SNP candidates in same way the the media has had fun with some UKIP selections.

    This choice is showing a lack of respect for the voters.

    But Inverness will turn into a very safe SNP seat, every party abuses their safe seats.
    The SNP can put anyone in Inverness and still win.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    sorry target seat 67.Watford is 61.Bedford is 24,where Mike's partner was polled and Broxtowe is 8..I guess Lord A is starting to look at those further down the target list.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    What's the youngest a person has ever been selected to fight a seat? Emily Benn was only 17 the first time she was selected for a parliamentary seat - but that was totally nothing to do with connections - but I'd be fascinated if someone wowed the political anoraks of their local association to be selected even earlier than that in the modern era.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Mortimer said:

    The market movements this evening were surely pricing in the effects of the appearance of Tristram Hunt on tonight's QT

    @hugorifkind: Quite surprised how much the audience dislike Tristram Hunt. #bbcqt
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Dair said:

    The 19 year old SNP challenger to Douglas Alexander http://bit.ly/1zUySqT

    Perhaps the crowd reaction (and the history of Paisley) should indicate that this might be a positive to her campaign.
    So this is what years of Scottish Labour has done to the country... no wonder the peasents are revolting.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    There's also a chance Sturgeon may sack her. If so, she should do it quickly.

    Tricky, since they've made a great thing about giving children the vote.
    What to do, even up my profit there by backing Labour at 5-4 ?

    She does have an 8 pt lead and its most likely slightly more than that...
    I think you're fine with your current position, you've effectively got infinite odds on the SNP in a seat they might well win.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    The 19 year old SNP challenger to Douglas Alexander http://bit.ly/1zUySqT

    What do you think of her, Mike?
    I wouldn't vote for a 19 year old whatever the party. The Record will want to get their teeth into SNP candidates in same way the the media has had fun with some UKIP selections.

    This choice is showing a lack of respect for the voters.

    If the Daily Record decides to hammer into her, then Old Dears in Paisley (which is pretty much all the Day Late Record has left) will be all up for supporting her,
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    AndrewP said:

    Speedy said:


    The latest constituency poll for Stevenage has a Labour lead of 5%: LAB 38, CON 33, UKIP 18, LD 7, GRN 3.

    The same constituency polls show the Tories holding or tied in 5 out 6 of the seats before Stevenage in order of CON-LAB margin though.

    Stevenage no 58.

    http://labourlist.org/2013/01/labours-106-battleground-target-seats-for-2015/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    edited February 2015
    Speedy said:

    The 19 year old SNP challenger to Douglas Alexander http://bit.ly/1zUySqT

    What do you think of her, Mike?
    I wouldn't vote for a 19 year old whatever the party. The Record will want to get their teeth into SNP candidates in same way the the media has had fun with some UKIP selections.

    This choice is showing a lack of respect for the voters.

    every party abuses their safe seats.
    True, and it seems to take forever for that to come back to bite them, if it ever does. The one positive of the SNP surge from my perspective as a unionist is how so many safe seats are actually possibly going to be competitive for once, which is a good thing for politics even if I don't personally like the potential outcomes.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @alstewitn: #BBCQT I don't think the '@CristinaOhq v @TristramHuntMP' on who taught Cristina will end well...

    @iainmartin1: Tristram Hunt going for the anti-nun vote there. @bbcquestiontime
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    There's also a chance Sturgeon may sack her. If so, she should do it quickly.

    Tricky, since they've made a great thing about giving children the vote.
    What to do, even up my profit there by backing Labour at 5-4 ?

    She does have an 8 pt lead and its most likely slightly more than that...
    I think you're fine with your current position, you've effectively got infinite odds on the SNP in a seat they might well win.
    Yes, she appeared awful on that video to me, and I'd seriously consider voting Dougie but I've never visited Paisley :)
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,142
    Scott_P said:

    Mortimer said:

    The market movements this evening were surely pricing in the effects of the appearance of Tristram Hunt on tonight's QT

    @hugorifkind: Quite surprised how much the audience dislike Tristram Hunt. #bbcqt
    He has the wonderful characteristic of never failing to disappoint.....
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    The 19 year old SNP challenger to Douglas Alexander http://bit.ly/1zUySqT

    Perhaps the crowd reaction (and the history of Paisley) should indicate that this might be a positive to her campaign.
    So this is what years of Scottish Labour has done to the country... no wonder the peasents are revolting.
    I really would say that in Glasgow and it's surrounds the idea of laying the head on a Labourite would go down VERY well with most people.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    With my suspicion of younger candidates - even though I acknowledge it can work out just fine - and dislike of the idea of voting at 16 having been in place even when I was younger than the SNP candidate, I wonder if that means I am growing into my eventual grumpy old man persona, or if it is a view that stretches across age boundaries.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,142
    Scott_P said:

    @alstewitn: #BBCQT I don't think the '@CristinaOhq v @TristramHuntMP' on who taught Cristina will end well...

    @iainmartin1: Tristram Hunt going for the anti-nun vote there. @bbcquestiontime

    Indeed! Bang on cue. You could just imagine Malcolm Tucker giving him post match 'praise'
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