CCHQ really need to stop billionaire CEOs and ultra blairites attacking Ed, it's going to be catastrophic.
But what happens if/when Ed get's into power and has to actually work with CEO's, business, etc...?
Have you (or anybody of left-wing persuasion) even had the remotest thought of what the hell your actually going to do should you find yourselves back in power in May?
'Business' is a lot more than a few greedy directors.
TSE And yougov of course had Yes over 50% 2 weeks before polling day, survation have had No ahead or it tied in their rerun referendum polls and they never had a Yes lead but longer term had it tighter than yougov
There are huge complexities in trying to evaluation exactly what happened in those two weeks. There are a lot of rumours about where the private polling was showing a Yes win, there's a lot of evidence where some polling companies were using 2010 weighting that false recall made their polls inaccurate and while there is a lot of reason to believe that the Quebec Effect exists, the actual amount of that effect is unknown.
I can think of at least three equally plausible scenarios to explain the last two weeks of the referendum campaign but none of them are capable of being proven in a reliable way.
...this ridiculous Dick Dastardly cartoon character with an itchy invade finger they have made out of Putin is grade A baloney...
Given Russian support of Abkhazia, South Ossettia, Crimea, the Front National, and his desire to remain in power by alternating President and Prime Minster, characterising Putin as a bit invadey is not necessarily a caricature.
The point I am making is not that Putin is not authoritarian (has Russia ever been ruled another way?), nor that he is even nice, but that he isn't a caricature -no-one is. Even Hitler had a plan -he didn't just go around invading Western Europe because he got out of bed on the wrong side. What we're being asked to believe of Putin is a fairy story. When we question the absurdity of that story, we then have to ask why he has taken the strategic decisions he has. When you do that, it becomes rather clear that he has acted in Russia's best interests with toughness, nerve and some skill. Or you can just carry on chowing down on that tabloid (though shamefully it includes the broadsheets) fantasy.
The English Civil War was only 373 years ago, and I believe some famous dude subsequently wrote a book about the need for a strong, dare I say it, authoritarian ruler of England.
If the Russians are just a few hundred years behind us in their political development, it's no reason to suppose that they have no future development ahead of them.
CCHQ really need to stop billionaire CEOs and ultra blairites attacking Ed, it's going to be catastrophic.
But what happens if/when Ed get's into power and has to actually work with CEO's, business, etc...?
Have you (or anybody of left-wing persuasion) even had the remotest thought of what the hell your actually going to do should you find yourselves back in power in May?
'Business' is a lot more than a few greedy directors.
So that's a "no" then.
Aren't you worried that after Cameron's gone and the celebrations have faded you'll all just be left standing around, scratching your heads saying... "Now what"?
Excluding won't votes, don't knows and refuseds, the figures are: (Base = 518) Conservative 28% Labour 39% UKIP 14% Lib Dem 4% Green 8% Others 7% Fieldwork was January 23rd - 26th
IDIOTS! Why did they have to with-hold the data for so long!? Now I have to re-calculate ELBOW for January and week-ending 1st Feb!! (yes, this poll definitely needs to be included in last week's ELBOW and last month's "Super-ELBOW")
Apart from that - Gold Standard for the PB Labour Fans
Good to see that RodCrosby's fabled forecast of consistent Tory polling leads by January has come to pass.
As accurate as his histories of WWII !
I don't think I ever predicted "consistent Tory polling leads by January." I predicted crossover, and it's still a bit early to discover whether I was right, or if wrong, by how much.
The histories of WWII you refer to are not mine, but of people who have no axe to grind, were in a position to know what they were talking about, and are readily available to those who have the courage to look.
I know the Welshpool area pretty well. Glynn Davies has the seat until he pops his clogs. As another poster has said he is very well known and liked in the area. He will not lose in 2015, which I guess will be his last election as he is in his 70s now. Incidentally Wm Hague and Ffion have bought a mansion there, so Davies will not lack support when canvassing.
CCHQ really need to stop billionaire CEOs and ultra blairites attacking Ed, it's going to be catastrophic.
But what happens if/when Ed get's into power and has to actually work with CEO's, business, etc...?
Have you (or anybody of left-wing persuasion) even had the remotest thought of what the hell your actually going to do should you find yourselves back in power in May?
'Business' is a lot more than a few greedy directors.
So that's a "no" then.
Aren't you worried that after Cameron's gone and the celebrations have faded you'll all just be left standing around, scratching your heads saying... "Now what"?
Not really - I'm not expecting much change, other than a few unpleasant people appearing on the tv and radio a little less often and a lot of egg on a lot of very smug, witless faces. But that's better than nothing Personally I'm waiting for PR and the UK's Syriza.
Good to see that RodCrosby's fabled forecast of consistent Tory polling leads by January has come to pass.
As accurate as his histories of WWII !
I don't think I ever predicted "consistent Tory polling leads by January." I predicted crossover, and it's still a bit early to discover whether I was right, or if wrong, by how much.
The histories of WWII you refer to are not mine, but of people who have no axe to grind, were in a position to know what they were talking about, and are readily available to those who have the courage to look.
I do recall you predicting 'hard crossover', whereby the Tories undeniably led, by January. But I also recall much mirth directed at Rod last year when his deadline for crossover to occur was missed - followed by much less confidence when it turned out to be merely a few weeks early.
I still don't buy any chance of a Tory majority, but let's be honest that few predictions made more than 6 months in advance on this site are accurate within 6 weeks of the intended date.
I don't agree. Much of the attack on Lamont like Wendy Alexander before her was the misogyny of the Labour Party in Scotland. The good ol boys at Westminster never gave either of them a chance never mind respect. Under certain circumstances I might well have voted for Lamont. I would NEVER vote Murphy. He has had the ulimate easy ride from the good ol boys in the unionist press. But now the reckoning is approaching.
On topic, OGH's logic is sound in terms of identifying unlikely gains - look for seats where something unusual happened last time, like this one or e.g. Kirkcaldy (unusual in that the PM was the candidate).
However 5/2 makes no appeal at all given the national headwinds.
...this ridiculous Dick Dastardly cartoon character with an itchy invade finger they have made out of Putin is grade A baloney...
Given Russian support of Abkhazia, South Ossettia, Crimea, the Front National, and his desire to remain in power by alternating President and Prime Minster, characterising Putin as a bit invadey is not necessarily a caricature.
The point I am making is not that Putin is not authoritarian (has Russia ever been ruled another way?), nor that he is even nice, but that he isn't a caricature -no-one is. Even Hitler had a plan -he didn't just go around invading Western Europe because he got out of bed on the wrong side. What we're being asked to believe of Putin is a fairy story. When we question the absurdity of that story, we then have to ask why he has taken the strategic decisions he has. When you do that, it becomes rather clear that he has acted in Russia's best interests with toughness, nerve and some skill. Or you can just carry on chowing down on that tabloid (though shamefully it includes the broadsheets) fantasy.
Taking your points individually
1) HAS PUTIN ACTED IN RUSSIA'S SELF-INTEREST? ============================= Arguably not. Following the fall of Communism, it could have become a classic capitalist free-market economy under the rule of law. Instead he made it more authoritarian: an economy of Big Hard Men, with the barriers to entry that implies. Capitalism isn't a cliche, it's a game with rules which (if done correctly) is open to all dependent solely on talent and ability. Putin's authoritarianism cripples capitalism and his disregard of human rights discourages other countries from joining in: this is why the Baltics, Poland et al are so frantic at the moment. So the honest answer to your question is "No. Putin is not acting in Russia's best interest"
2) DO I CHOW DOWN ON TABLOID/BROADSHEET FANTASY? =================================== No. If I understand correctly, Putin wishes to increase Russian influence by creating EU/NATO analogues (EEU/CSTO), create widening circles of influence (Russia, a de-facto Greater Russia, Central Europe back under Russian hegemony, a neutered Western Europe), is conducting military and paramilitary operations (Abkhazia, South Ossettia, Ukraine) and diplomatic interference (advisers in Transnistria, funding of Front National) to further that aim assisted by being a prime supplier of energy. I don't want to live in that world: I think it's bad for people. So my dislike of Putin isn't based on a fantasy, tabloid or otherwise.
Scotslass Murphy did make a significant contribution to No's victory in the indyref, unlike Lamont, he has only been in the office a month it will take years for Labour to fully rebuild in Scotland
Scotslass Murphy did make a significant contribution to No's victory in the indyref, unlike Lamont, he has only been in the office a month it will take years for Labour to fully rebuild in Scotland
You cannot know that any more than I can know that only the Quebec Effect cost a Yes win.
On topic, OGH's logic is sound in terms of identifying unlikely gains - look for seats where something unusual happened last time, like this one or e.g. Kirkcaldy (unusual in that the PM was the candidate).
However 5/2 makes no appeal at all given the national headwinds.
Unwind from a seat previously gained during a by-election is also something to look out for.
The two seats gained in by-elections by the Conservatives last time are Norwich North (Chloe Smith) and Crewe + Nantwich.
On topic, OGH's logic is sound in terms of identifying unlikely gains - look for seats where something unusual happened last time, like this one or e.g. Kirkcaldy (unusual in that the PM was the candidate).
However 5/2 makes no appeal at all given the national headwinds.
I know its in the "wrong bit" of Scotland and Labour has a momentous lead there but I couldn't help taking a smidgen of 9-2 about SNP in Kirkcaldy
RE: Montgomeryshire. The 2014 EU elections in Wales were pretty grim for the LDs.
"This year’s European election saw the party hit a new nadir. Sure, the party was never very likely to win an MEP in Wales – having failed to do so in 1999, 2004 and 2009, none in the party can have harboured any illusions that success was likely in 2014. But to gain merely 4% of the vote in the land of Lloyd George was utterly abject.
Nor could Liberal Democrats take much comfort from a substantially better performance in a few bastions: their ‘relatively good’ performances in Ceredigion and Powys meant that they actually scraped into double-figures in percentage share of the vote there. Nonetheless, the party still came fourth in both counties. Cardiff was the only other local authority area in which they gained more than 5% of the vote, but this still meant a sixth place finish."
Murphy has been in for 50 days and incredibly held a press briefing on Friday on his "achievements" in office. In reality he has had the first reverse honeymoon in political history. Everyone - even poor Ian Grey - had a halo effect on election except Murphy. His 50 days of "achievements" you could not make it up and no-one would print it apart from the totally supine unionist press in Scotland. Lamont is a political giant on comparison. At least she has a back story and an element of dignity. Murphy has neither. He is now 50 points behind Sturgeon in popularity!
scotslass It was Lamont who left this situation, as I said Murphy will need several years for Labour to be in a position to challenge again. Indeed in Quebec the nationalists won their post referendum elections comfortably before the Liberals returned to power at the election after, goodnight
Both Chris Christie and Rand Paul call vaccination against common childhood diseases a matter of parental choice. Would have driven tim berserk! Becoming more difficult to identify which GOP contender is on the moderate / sane wing of the party (if there is one left).
Neil it may have escaped your attention but I am not one of your "resident Nats". I have posted 70 times compared to your 7000 and HYUFD's 6000! I have not ever said anything remotely critical of Johann Lamont.
I think Lamont was a fundamentally better leader of the Labour Party than Murphy and that is not just because she is a women, and by most reports a very decent one, and not just because he is a Blairite warmonger and the last thing that Labour needs to take on the SNP or Scotland needs to move politics forward..
I also think he is totally insincere and would say or do anything to chnage his long standing image as a right wing political fixer. He has been given an incredibly easy ride by a tame press but this latest humiliating poll may be the straw that breaks the camels back.
Super-ELBOW for January, due to TNS phone poll, revised to Lab lead 1.1% (as opposed to 1.0), but still the lowest Lab monthly lead since ELBOW began in August.
Comments
I can think of at least three equally plausible scenarios to explain the last two weeks of the referendum campaign but none of them are capable of being proven in a reliable way.
If the Russians are just a few hundred years behind us in their political development, it's no reason to suppose that they have no future development ahead of them.
Aren't you worried that after Cameron's gone and the celebrations have faded you'll all just be left standing around, scratching your heads saying... "Now what"?
(yes, this poll definitely needs to be included in last week's ELBOW and last month's "Super-ELBOW")
Apart from that - Gold Standard for the PB Labour Fans
The histories of WWII you refer to are not mine, but of people who have no axe to grind, were in a position to know what they were talking about, and are readily available to those who have the courage to look.
Incidentally Wm Hague and Ffion have bought a mansion there, so Davies will not lack support when canvassing.
Personally I'm waiting for PR and the UK's Syriza.
I still don't buy any chance of a Tory majority, but let's be honest that few predictions made more than 6 months in advance on this site are accurate within 6 weeks of the intended date.
HYUFD 11:08PM
"Scotslass He is still doing better than Lamont"
I don't agree. Much of the attack on Lamont like Wendy Alexander before her was the misogyny of the Labour Party in Scotland. The good ol boys at Westminster never gave either of them a chance never mind respect. Under certain circumstances I might well have voted for Lamont. I would NEVER vote Murphy. He has had the ulimate easy ride from the good ol boys in the unionist press. But now the reckoning is approaching.
However 5/2 makes no appeal at all given the national headwinds.
1) HAS PUTIN ACTED IN RUSSIA'S SELF-INTEREST?
=============================
Arguably not. Following the fall of Communism, it could have become a classic capitalist free-market economy under the rule of law. Instead he made it more authoritarian: an economy of Big Hard Men, with the barriers to entry that implies. Capitalism isn't a cliche, it's a game with rules which (if done correctly) is open to all dependent solely on talent and ability. Putin's authoritarianism cripples capitalism and his disregard of human rights discourages other countries from joining in: this is why the Baltics, Poland et al are so frantic at the moment. So the honest answer to your question is "No. Putin is not acting in Russia's best interest"
2) DO I CHOW DOWN ON TABLOID/BROADSHEET FANTASY?
===================================
No. If I understand correctly, Putin wishes to increase Russian influence by creating EU/NATO analogues (EEU/CSTO), create widening circles of influence (Russia, a de-facto Greater Russia, Central Europe back under Russian hegemony, a neutered Western Europe), is conducting military and paramilitary operations (Abkhazia, South Ossettia, Ukraine) and diplomatic interference (advisers in Transnistria, funding of Front National) to further that aim assisted by being a prime supplier of energy. I don't want to live in that world: I think it's bad for people. So my dislike of Putin isn't based on a fantasy, tabloid or otherwise.
1979-1983, 4 years
2010-, 5 years and counting
So the thread header should say "all but 4 of the past 130 years - until..."
TNS 8th Jan = 567
Ashcroft 11th Jan = 527
Ipsos-MORI 13th Jan = 559
Ashcroft 18th Jan = 508
TNS 19th Jan = 553
ICM 19th Jan = 558
Ashcroft 25th Jan = 562
ComRes 25th Jan = 588
TNS 26th Jan = 518 (ie. "tonight's")
Ashcroft 1st Feb = 591
Ah yes, sorry, all but four up to 2010.
The two seats gained in by-elections by the Conservatives last time are Norwich North (Chloe Smith) and Crewe + Nantwich.
I'm calling that a UKIP-Lab tie for second place. Pretty flipping exciting!
twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/561820808906305536
The 2014 EU elections in Wales were pretty grim for the LDs.
"This year’s European election saw the party hit a new nadir. Sure, the party was never very likely to win an MEP in Wales – having failed to do so in 1999, 2004 and 2009, none in the party can have harboured any illusions that success was likely in 2014. But to gain merely 4% of the vote in the land of Lloyd George was utterly abject.
Nor could Liberal Democrats take much comfort from a substantially better performance in a few bastions: their ‘relatively good’ performances in Ceredigion and Powys meant that they actually scraped into double-figures in percentage share of the vote there. Nonetheless, the party still came fourth in both counties. Cardiff was the only other local authority area in which they gained more than 5% of the vote, but this still meant a sixth place finish."
http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2014/09/15/the-electoral-state-of-the-parties-4-the-liberal-democrats-2/
Totting this all up, Labour Minority is £700 better for me than Labour Majority (+£500/-£200) at the moment - some way to go.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/02/opinion/dont-drill-along-the-east-coast.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=c-column-top-span-region®ion=c-column-top-span-region&WT.nav=c-column-top-span-region&_r=0
Murphy has been in for 50 days and incredibly held a press briefing on Friday on his "achievements" in office. In reality he has had the first reverse honeymoon in political history. Everyone - even poor Ian Grey - had a halo effect on election except Murphy. His 50 days of "achievements" you could not make it up and no-one would print it apart from the totally supine unionist press in Scotland. Lamont is a political giant on comparison. At least she has a back story and an element of dignity. Murphy has neither. He is now 50 points behind Sturgeon in popularity!
https://twitter.com/doddsjane
Yes! Let the BMRB run through you!!
Neil it may have escaped your attention but I am not one of your "resident Nats". I have posted 70 times compared to your 7000 and HYUFD's 6000! I have not ever said anything remotely critical of Johann Lamont.
I think Lamont was a fundamentally better leader of the Labour Party than Murphy and that is not just because she is a women, and by most reports a very decent one, and not just because he is a Blairite warmonger and the last thing that Labour needs to take on the SNP or Scotland needs to move politics forward..
I also think he is totally insincere and would say or do anything to chnage his long standing image as a right wing political fixer. He has been given an incredibly easy ride by a tame press but this latest humiliating poll may be the straw that breaks the camels back.
(Phone poll rather than TNS online)