YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by two: CON 33, LAB 35, LD 7, UKIP 14, GRN 6
Not good. I found the Ashcroft poll today, showing a majority of swing voters now think the country is on the wrong path, instructive.
It reinforces my view that the Conservatives have simply failed to provide leadership and take their case to the country and win the political arguments.
They spend most of their time being buffeted by the seven winds: either acquiescing to the consensus of the New Labour years, or apologising for when they have to do something vaguely economically right of centre.
If Ed gets the keys to No 10 we are all f#cked. Are over 1/3 of the population really that stupid?
Scottish Labour keeping up the 'unite Scotland' stuff.
Ian Smart @ianssmart 44 mins44 minutes ago Great documentary about the first ever female rabbi on BBC4. Died in a concentration camp. With the SNP's enthusiastic support. Never forget
Excluding won't votes, don't knows and refuseds, the figures are: (Base = 518) Conservative 28% Labour 39% UKIP 14% Lib Dem 4% Green 8% Others 7% Fieldwork was January 23rd - 26th
SWINGBACKTASTIC!
Even I think thats Bollox.
If its included in Feb polling average its going to make CROSSSOVVVERRR difficult
The convention is normally to look at the fieldwork dates - so this poll would be included in a January average.
How many other MPs bother (voluntarily) to actually consult those who they were elected to represent, before casting their vote?
I did just that (an email to the 8% of constituents whose addresses I then had) as well coming to a public meeting called by the Stop the War Coalition and debating with Alan Simpson, before deciding to support the Iraq operation. There was a clear majority of constituents in favour at the time (as there was in the national polls by the time of decision). We were, I now think, wrong, but I didn't just absent-mindedly wander into the Yes lobby.
Bit defensive there, Nick?
I don't doubt you had a reputation of being a polite, respectful and consultative local MP when you were in office. However, I'm sorry to say, you also had a bit of a reputation as an arch backbench Labour loyalist.
Excluding won't votes, don't knows and refuseds, the figures are: (Base = 518) Conservative 28% Labour 39% UKIP 14% Lib Dem 4% Green 8% Others 7% Fieldwork was January 23rd - 26th
SWINGBACKTASTIC!
Even I think thats Bollox.
If its included in Feb polling average its going to make CROSSSOVVVERRR difficult
Of course it is, but makes all the joviality over the four 1% Tory leads last week even funnier.
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by two: CON 33, LAB 35, LD 7, UKIP 14, GRN 6
Not good. I found the Ashcroft poll today, showing a majority of swing voters now think the country is on the wrong path, instructive.
It reinforces my view that the Conservatives have simply failed to provide leadership and take their case to the country and win the political arguments.
They spend most of their time being buffeted by the seven winds: either acquiescing to the consensus of the New Labour years, or apologising for when they have to do something vaguely economically right of centre.
If Ed gets the keys to No 10 we are all f#cked. Are over 1/3 of the population really that stupid?
They don't believe the Conservatives are on their side, or have their best interests at heart.
The Conservatives haven't done a particularly good job on convincing them otherwise.
Spending as a percentage of gdp post WW2 and the huge FDR increase, fell the most under Clinton, then IKE, Nixon and Reagan, it rose the most under Obama, George W Bush and LBJ http://www.cato.org/blog/clinton-obama-polar-opposites
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by two: CON 33, LAB 35, LD 7, UKIP 14, GRN 6
Not good. I found the Ashcroft poll today, showing a majority of swing voters now think the country is on the wrong path, instructive.
It reinforces my view that the Conservatives have simply failed to provide leadership and take their case to the country and win the political arguments.
They spend most of their time being buffeted by the seven winds: either acquiescing to the consensus of the New Labour years, or apologising for when they have to do something vaguely economically right of centre.
If Ed gets the keys to No 10 we are all f#cked. Are over 1/3 of the population really that stupid?
A possible explanation. Also possible is that with governments going to great pains to blame anything poor on things governments cannot control, people do not think Ed M could have such a major impact even if he is a poor PM (I suspect he will prove to be mediocre at best). The reality of the situation, if the predictions of doom are correct, will constrain what he can do to mess things up, so we'll probably be fine. That being the case, why wouldn't people get rid of the Tories and at least see if Labour can do better, illogical as that is given Ed M and others were at the heart of the last government and getting back in so quickly ensures they will have learned nothing from that time.
Excluding won't votes, don't knows and refuseds, the figures are: (Base = 518) Conservative 28% Labour 39% UKIP 14% Lib Dem 4% Green 8% Others 7% Fieldwork was January 23rd - 26th
Ed Miliband in with a 128 seat landslide...
#sayingnothing
Not very plausible is it? Labour need 69 seats to get a majority, and a couple of dozen extra needed to make up for losses to the SNP.
Which would mean for a bare majority Labour need to gain about 100 seats in England and Wales. This would have to be a Blair 97 type landslide.
Labour haven't done anything to deserve the boost, other than get a free hit with Bootsgate. It's one thing you can't actual pin on the Tories - although Lynton might need to send the heavies around to the Tories' wealthy tax-avoiding supporters and tell them to keep a sock in it for a while.
This could actually be an opportunity for Ed if he stands up to these greedy fat-cats. It would kill two birds with one stone: it would FINALLY mean people would have some idea of what Labour stands for, and also might get people to change their minds about Ed being a weak pushover who doesn't have the guts to stand up for himself.
Of course, he's probably not going to take the opportunity.
Excluding won't votes, don't knows and refuseds, the figures are: (Base = 518) Conservative 28% Labour 39% UKIP 14% Lib Dem 4% Green 8% Others 7% Fieldwork was January 23rd - 26th
SWINGBACKTASTIC!
Even I think thats Bollox.
If its included in Feb polling average its going to make CROSSSOVVVERRR difficult
Of course it is, but makes all the joviality over the four 1% Tory leads last week even funnier.
Yes, it's hilarious. Whither the Tory surge? That poll again, with changes on the previous TNS poll a week before:
Conservative 28% (-3) Labour 39% (+8) Liberal Democrat 4% (-4) UKIP 14% (-2) Green 8% (+1) Other 7% (nc)
Last few polls,not good for the tories,even with Ed going through a political shit storm.
Personally I think it's being mildly helpful, in a contra-intuitive way. Firstly, it's concentrating attention on Labour, which is usually difficult for oppositions, as governments make the weather: much better to have a debate on whether our policies will really work than sit around chewing over Tory policy. Secondly, it's giving Ed M the opportunity to remind people of his steely side. He simply can't see a vested interest without wanting to have a go at it - Murdoch, the Mail, venture fund capitalists: when they take him on he doesn't change the subject nervously or try to ingratiate himself, he hits back. Labour-leaning voters who feel there are too many vested interests around actually quite like it.
If these are the figures then surely its becoming a case of times up for Murphy. As he embarks on frenetic initiative after frenetic initiative cheered on by a tame press then the SNP vote rises and the Daily Record circulation falls through the floor. At some point very soon a child in the crowd is going to point out Murphy's total lack of clothes and everyone else have a good laugh.
With TNS, I can't see a table with don't knows removed.
Its past voting is 31% Conservative to 29% Labour from 2010 which may account for the strange result. But, given the absence of such a table, I don't know what to make of it.
Definitely. But I believe it is the first poll ever (or at least since 1970) to have the Lib Dems or Liberal party on below 5%. They are 6th in this poll!
This could actually be an opportunity for Ed if he stands up to these greedy fat-cats. It would kill two birds with one stone: it would FINALLY mean people would have some idea of what Labour stands for, and also might get people to change their minds about Ed being a weak pushover who doesn't have the guts to stand up for himself.
Of course, he's probably not going to take the opportunity.
Not sure.
He tends to fight back in similar scenarios – Ralphgate, Murdochgate and Energygate spring to mind.
The difference with Rose is that he is generally well regarded unlike the Boot's guy who was a gift to Ed due to his tax-avoiding Monaco-residing activities.
Last few polls,not good for the tories,even with Ed going through a political shit storm.
Personally I think it's being mildly helpful, in a contra-intuitive way. Firstly, it's concentrating attention on Labour, which is usually difficult for oppositions, as governments make the weather: much better to have a debate on whether our policies will really work than sit around chewing over Tory policy. Secondly, it's giving Ed M the opportunity to remind people of his steely side. He simply can't see a vested interest without wanting to have a go at it - Murdoch, the Mail, venture fund capitalists: when they take him on he doesn't change the subject nervously or try to ingratiate himself, he hits back. Labour-leaning voters who feel there are too many vested interests around actually quite like it.
I think you're right that Labour-leaners overwhelmingly like the idea of Labour taking on the powerful vested interests, but is it really the public perception that Ed does that? I'm not even sure the attack on energy companies is remembered much anymore, since he hasn't really done that in a year or so (or atleast hasn't done it in a high-profile way).
Excluding won't votes, don't knows and refuseds, the figures are: (Base = 518) Conservative 28% Labour 39% UKIP 14% Lib Dem 4% Green 8% Others 7% Fieldwork was January 23rd - 26th
SWINGBACKTASTIC!
Even I think thats Bollox.
If its included in Feb polling average its going to make CROSSSOVVVERRR difficult
Of course it is, but makes all the joviality over the four 1% Tory leads last week even funnier.
Yes, it's hilarious. Whither the Tory surge? That poll again, with changes on the previous TNS poll a week before:
Conservative 28% (-3) Labour 39% (+8) Liberal Democrat 4% (-4) UKIP 14% (-2) Green 8% (+1) Other 7% (nc)
Last few polls,not good for the tories,even with Ed going through a political shit storm.
Personally I think it's being mildly helpful, in a contra-intuitive way. Firstly, it's concentrating attention on Labour, which is usually difficult for oppositions, as governments make the weather: much better to have a debate on whether our policies will really work than sit around chewing over Tory policy. Secondly, it's giving Ed M the opportunity to remind people of his steely side. He simply can't see a vested interest without wanting to have a go at it - Murdoch, the Mail, venture fund capitalists: when they take him on he doesn't change the subject nervously or try to ingratiate himself, he hits back. Labour-leaning voters who feel there are too many vested interests around actually quite like it.
Excluding won't votes, don't knows and refuseds, the figures are: (Base = 518) Conservative 28% Labour 39% UKIP 14% Lib Dem 4% Green 8% Others 7% Fieldwork was January 23rd - 26th
Ed Miliband in with a 128 seat landslide...
#sayingnothing
Not very plausible is it? Labour need 69 seats to get a majority, and a couple of dozen extra needed to make up for losses to the SNP.
Which would mean for a bare majority Labour need to gain about 100 seats in England and Wales. This would have to be a Blair 97 type landslide.
Given the average of the other polls, this poll is a strong contender for most extreme outlier of any poll this Parliament. Lord Ashcroft's first poll of the year is made to look like a sober-headed measure of public opinion by comparison.
I find it particularly funny because of the context provided by those posters who were so excited by the modest random variations in the polls that favoured the Tories last week. If this poll had been published the day after its fieldwork had finished, on the 27th, Tuesday last week, it would have possibly have prevented some people from becoming over-excited about Tory progress in the polls.
Definitely. But I believe it is the first poll ever (or at least since 1970) to have the Lib Dems or Liberal party on below 5%. They are 6th in this poll!
Excluding won't votes, don't knows and refuseds, the figures are: (Base = 518) Conservative 28% Labour 39% UKIP 14% Lib Dem 4% Green 8% Others 7% Fieldwork was January 23rd - 26th
SWINGBACKTASTIC!
Even I think thats Bollox.
If its included in Feb polling average its going to make CROSSSOVVVERRR difficult
Of course it is, but makes all the joviality over the four 1% Tory leads last week even funnier.
Yes, it's hilarious. Whither the Tory surge? That poll again, with changes on the previous TNS poll a week before:
Conservative 28% (-3) Labour 39% (+8) Liberal Democrat 4% (-4) UKIP 14% (-2) Green 8% (+1) Other 7% (nc)
No comment, it's an outlier. Perhaps TNS has seen the fun of Lord A's polls and decided to join the club.
How many other MPs bother (voluntarily) to actually consult those who they were elected to represent, before casting their vote?
I did just that (an email to the 8% of constituents whose addresses I then had) as well coming to a public meeting called by the Stop the War Coalition and debating with Alan Simpson, before deciding to support the Iraq operation. There was a clear majority of constituents in favour at the time (as there was in the national polls by the time of decision). We were, I now think, wrong, but I didn't just absent-mindedly wander into the Yes lobby.
If in the future should you return to the corridors of power, here's a handy rule of thumb to spotting a disastrous blood soaked foreign policy misadventure. 1. We will be being asked to join our great ally the US 2. The newspapers will be baying for blood 3. There will be lots of arguments along the lines of 'something must be done', 'danger of isolationism', 'standing in the world', 'humanitarian catastrophe', etc. 4. Sensible countries will be staying at home
But if you fail to remember all 4, just number 1 will pretty much do.
Excluding won't votes, don't knows and refuseds, the figures are: (Base = 518) Conservative 28% Labour 39% UKIP 14% Lib Dem 4% Green 8% Others 7% Fieldwork was January 23rd - 26th
SWINGBACKTASTIC!
Even I think thats Bollox.
If its included in Feb polling average its going to make CROSSSOVVVERRR difficult
Of course it is, but makes all the joviality over the four 1% Tory leads last week even funnier.
Yes, it's hilarious. Whither the Tory surge? That poll again, with changes on the previous TNS poll a week before:
Conservative 28% (-3) Labour 39% (+8) Liberal Democrat 4% (-4) UKIP 14% (-2) Green 8% (+1) Other 7% (nc)
If TGOHF had any wit surely he would have commented that Ukip just don't get 16% w TNS anymore
Excluding won't votes, don't knows and refuseds, the figures are: (Base = 518) Conservative 28% Labour 39% UKIP 14% Lib Dem 4% Green 8% Others 7% Fieldwork was January 23rd - 26th
Ed Miliband in with a 128 seat landslide...
#sayingnothing
Not very plausible is it? Labour need 69 seats to get a majority, and a couple of dozen extra needed to make up for losses to the SNP.
Which would mean for a bare majority Labour need to gain about 100 seats in England and Wales. This would have to be a Blair 97 type landslide.
Given the average of the other polls, this poll is a strong contender for most extreme outlier of any poll this Parliament. Lord Ashcroft's first poll of the year is made to look like a sober-headed measure of public opinion by comparison.
I find it particularly funny because of the context provided by those posters who were so excited by the modest random variations in the polls that favoured the Tories last week. If this poll had been published the day after its fieldwork had finished, on the 27th, Tuesday last week, it would have possibly have prevented some people from becoming over-excited about Tory progress in the polls.
Highly unlikely on here, it would have been summarily dismissed while the choir focused on a poll they like. As much as I love the PB Tories, I spend most of my time lurking now – it's just way too time consuming to debate 100 zillion Blues, the world's two most rightwing 'Green' supporters and 100,000 Kippers all at once!
Excluding won't votes, don't knows and refuseds, the figures are: (Base = 518) Conservative 28% Labour 39% UKIP 14% Lib Dem 4% Green 8% Others 7% Fieldwork was January 23rd - 26th
Ed Miliband in with a 128 seat landslide...
#sayingnothing
Not very plausible is it? Labour need 69 seats to get a majority, and a couple of dozen extra needed to make up for losses to the SNP.
Which would mean for a bare majority Labour need to gain about 100 seats in England and Wales. This would have to be a Blair 97 type landslide.
Given the average of the other polls, this poll is a strong contender for most extreme outlier of any poll this Parliament. Lord Ashcroft's first poll of the year is made to look like a sober-headed measure of public opinion by comparison.
I find it particularly funny because of the context provided by those posters who were so excited by the modest random variations in the polls that favoured the Tories last week. If this poll had been published the day after its fieldwork had finished, on the 27th, Tuesday last week, it would have possibly have prevented some people from becoming over-excited about Tory progress in the polls.
Highly unlikely on here, it would have been summarily dismissed while the choir focused on a poll they like. As much as I love the PB Tories, I spend most of my time lurking now – it's just way too time consuming to debate 100 zillion Blues, the world's two most rightwing 'Green' supporters and 100,000 Kippers all at once!
Where's Rod? The funniest thing about the future EICIPM will be the stunned silences from all the professional commentariat airheads blowing Westminster bubbles whilst labour remains in the lead in the face of supposed disaster after disaster.
Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus issues a monthly prediction. Unfortunately (like many academic modellers) he does not have an online archive of his predictions. I can try and reconstruct one from going thru archive.org and Mike's Twitter feed, but that's lengthy and imperfect (archived archive.org pages are not immediately available: I think the delay is 6 months)
To save me hours of labour, does anybody know of an archive of Baxter's predictions?
OT - According to their 2012 accounts (the latest electoral commission ones with a membership figure) the Lib Dems in Montgomeryshire only had 138 members. I'm sure a new candidate will have increased it a bit since then, but my suspicion is that the party structure is pretty weak. Wouldn't touch this bet at anything shorter than 5/1.
Where's Rod? The funniest thing about the future EICIPM will be the stunned silences from all the professional commentariat airheads blowing Westminster bubbles whilst labour remains in the lead in the face of supposed disaster after disaster.
I sense an oncoming silence on opinion polls. I had better read up on the history of the shape of chicken eggs from 1245 to present day.
Montgomeryshire is the seat next door to the constituency in which I vote.
My feeling is that the candidate matters a lot. I happen to think the Tory candidate in this seat -- a Welsh speaker, former member of Plaid Cymru, a farmer -- is very well suited to the constituency. I think he will take some dislodging.
The new LibDem candidate is certainly an improvement on Lembit Opik, but she is not as well matched or as well known as Glyn Davies.
But in truth, the LibDems have treated this seat disgracefully. After Emlyn Hooson's death, they first parachuted in Alex Carlile, and then Lembit Opik, neither of whom had any connection with Montgomeryshire. They were both completely ill-suited to the constituency.
The LibDems treated the place as a fiefdom to be farmed out to whatever (allegedly promising) Lib Dem needed a seat -- much like sone of the SoutH Wales Valleys seats are treated by Labour.
Additionally, the LibDems chose a violent drunkard to be the Assembly member. Mick Bates was convicted of common assault and public disorder in 2010, having punched up paramedical staff. He left the party, presumably before he could be expelled.
It's not just Lembit. The LibDems have made a series of poor choices in this seat, and they have paid the penalty both at Westminster and at the Assembly.
In my judgement, they will continue to pay the price in this constituency in May. I think the seat belongs to Glyn Davies until he retires. The LibDems can hope to retake it then.
Excluding won't votes, don't knows and refuseds, the figures are: (Base = 518) Conservative 28% Labour 39% UKIP 14% Lib Dem 4% Green 8% Others 7% Fieldwork was January 23rd - 26th
SWINGBACKTASTIC!
Even I think thats Bollox.
If its included in Feb polling average its going to make CROSSSOVVVERRR difficult
Of course it is, but makes all the joviality over the four 1% Tory leads last week even funnier.
Yes, it's hilarious. Whither the Tory surge? That poll again, with changes on the previous TNS poll a week before:
Conservative 28% (-3) Labour 39% (+8) Liberal Democrat 4% (-4) UKIP 14% (-2) Green 8% (+1) Other 7% (nc)
No comment, it's an outlier. Perhaps TNS has seen the fun of Lord A's polls and decided to join the club.
Not sure quite why there's this attention to a (mythical?) TNS poll. Well I am actually and it's probably for the same reason there's overreaction the other way.
But this isn't a poll worth any further discussion. Sample size 518? No. Simply, no.
Excluding won't votes, don't knows and refuseds, the figures are: (Base = 518) Conservative 28% Labour 39% UKIP 14% Lib Dem 4% Green 8% Others 7% Fieldwork was January 23rd - 26th
SWINGBACKTASTIC!
Even I think thats Bollox.
If its included in Feb polling average its going to make CROSSSOVVVERRR difficult
Of course it is, but makes all the joviality over the four 1% Tory leads last week even funnier.
Yes, it's hilarious. Whither the Tory surge? That poll again, with changes on the previous TNS poll a week before:
Conservative 28% (-3) Labour 39% (+8) Liberal Democrat 4% (-4) UKIP 14% (-2) Green 8% (+1) Other 7% (nc)
No comment, it's an outlier. Perhaps TNS has seen the fun of Lord A's polls and decided to join the club.
I think if it was weighted to the actual past vote figures for 2010, Labour would lead by 3% or so.
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by two: CON 33, LAB 35, LD 7, UKIP 14, GRN 6
Mori/ARSE Gold Standard?
Any PB Tories think 1.63 Cameron PM might have been a bit short.
So is the shortest Crossover in history is now over ?
Did crossover ever even happen?
Where were you last week for the earthquake in British politics. Celebrations went on for four days. PB Hodges were posting about opinion polls in their sleep.
Excluding won't votes, don't knows and refuseds, the figures are: (Base = 518) Conservative 28% Labour 39% UKIP 14% Lib Dem 4% Green 8% Others 7% Fieldwork was January 23rd - 26th
SWINGBACKTASTIC!
Even I think thats Bollox.
If its included in Feb polling average its going to make CROSSSOVVVERRR difficult
Of course it is, but makes all the joviality over the four 1% Tory leads last week even funnier.
Yes, it's hilarious. Whither the Tory surge? That poll again, with changes on the previous TNS poll a week before:
Conservative 28% (-3) Labour 39% (+8) Liberal Democrat 4% (-4) UKIP 14% (-2) Green 8% (+1) Other 7% (nc)
If TGOHF had any wit surely he would have commented that Ukip just don't get 16% w TNS anymore
It's just a run of three polls, but all three of the latest three TNS polls have recorded a drop in the UKIP share, from a November/December high of 19%. First down to 18%, then 16% and now 14%.
Surely the next TNS will put UKIP on at least 20%? Anything less would be dull...
Excluding won't votes, don't knows and refuseds, the figures are: (Base = 518) Conservative 28% Labour 39% UKIP 14% Lib Dem 4% Green 8% Others 7% Fieldwork was January 23rd - 26th
SWINGBACKTASTIC!
Even I think thats Bollox.
If its included in Feb polling average its going to make CROSSSOVVVERRR difficult
Of course it is, but makes all the joviality over the four 1% Tory leads last week even funnier.
Yes, it's hilarious. Whither the Tory surge? That poll again, with changes on the previous TNS poll a week before:
Conservative 28% (-3) Labour 39% (+8) Liberal Democrat 4% (-4) UKIP 14% (-2) Green 8% (+1) Other 7% (nc)
No comment, it's an outlier. Perhaps TNS has seen the fun of Lord A's polls and decided to join the club.
Not sure quite why there's this attention to a (mythical?) TNS poll. Well I am actually and it's probably for the same reason there's overreaction the other way.
But this isn't a poll worth any further discussion. Sample size 518? No. Simply, no.
It's not mythical, the tables have been published. The sample of 518 is larger than Lord A's polls but not by much, however it's still a small size and it does have the same effect as in Lord A's polls.
Wow they're out the woodwork tonight on here. Wish you'd stick around and post, sensibly, during daylight hours. We need some more Labour supporters on here, not simply trolling. So be brave, turn up and write things more often please.
Stuart Rose has the filthiest sense of humour you can imagine. My wife sat next to him at dinner a few years ago and it took him just 3 minutes before launching into dirty limericks...
Excluding won't votes, don't knows and refuseds, the figures are: (Base = 518) Conservative 28% Labour 39% UKIP 14% Lib Dem 4% Green 8% Others 7% Fieldwork was January 23rd - 26th
SWINGBACKTASTIC!
Even I think thats Bollox.
If its included in Feb polling average its going to make CROSSSOVVVERRR difficult
Of course it is, but makes all the joviality over the four 1% Tory leads last week even funnier.
Yes, it's hilarious. Whither the Tory surge? That poll again, with changes on the previous TNS poll a week before:
Conservative 28% (-3) Labour 39% (+8) Liberal Democrat 4% (-4) UKIP 14% (-2) Green 8% (+1) Other 7% (nc)
No comment, it's an outlier. Perhaps TNS has seen the fun of Lord A's polls and decided to join the club.
Not sure quite why there's this attention to a (mythical?) TNS poll. Well I am actually and it's probably for the same reason there's overreaction the other way.
But this isn't a poll worth any further discussion. Sample size 518? No. Simply, no.
It's not mythical, the tables have been published. The sample of 518 is larger than Lord A's polls but not by much, however it's still a small size and it does have the same effect as in Lord A's polls.
Excluding won't votes, don't knows and refuseds, the figures are: (Base = 518) Conservative 28% Labour 39% UKIP 14% Lib Dem 4% Green 8% Others 7% Fieldwork was January 23rd - 26th
SWINGBACKTASTIC!
Even I think thats Bollox.
If its included in Feb polling average its going to make CROSSSOVVVERRR difficult
Of course it is, but makes all the joviality over the four 1% Tory leads last week even funnier.
Yes, it's hilarious. Whither the Tory surge? That poll again, with changes on the previous TNS poll a week before:
Conservative 28% (-3) Labour 39% (+8) Liberal Democrat 4% (-4) UKIP 14% (-2) Green 8% (+1) Other 7% (nc)
No comment, it's an outlier. Perhaps TNS has seen the fun of Lord A's polls and decided to join the club.
Not sure quite why there's this attention to a (mythical?) TNS poll. Well I am actually and it's probably for the same reason there's overreaction the other way.
But this isn't a poll worth any further discussion. Sample size 518? No. Simply, no.
Britain’s most senior business leaders have accused Ed Miliband of attempting to shut down debate of his policies ahead of the election by making “personal attacks” on his critics. Sir Ian Cheshire, who ran the DIY chain B&Q, spoke out alongside a number of the country’s most respected business leaders after Mr Miliband rounded on Stefano Pessina, the chief executive of Boots, after he said a Labour Government would be a “catastrophe” for Britain. Sir Nigel Rudd, one of Britain’s leading industrialists, said the highly personal attacks “stifled debate” and “made people think twice about voicing their opinions”. Lord Rose, the chairman of online grocer Ocado and now a Tory peer, added that Labour was unfairly “almost playing the man, not the football”. Another executive said the criticism was similar to how “the SNP cowed the business community in Scotland [with] threats” before September’s independence referendum.
Excluding won't votes, don't knows and refuseds, the figures are: (Base = 518) Conservative 28% Labour 39% UKIP 14% Lib Dem 4% Green 8% Others 7% Fieldwork was January 23rd - 26th
SWINGBACKTASTIC!
Even I think thats Bollox.
If its included in Feb polling average its going to make CROSSSOVVVERRR difficult
Of course it is, but makes all the joviality over the four 1% Tory leads last week even funnier.
Yes, it's hilarious. Whither the Tory surge? That poll again, with changes on the previous TNS poll a week before:
Conservative 28% (-3) Labour 39% (+8) Liberal Democrat 4% (-4) UKIP 14% (-2) Green 8% (+1) Other 7% (nc)
No comment, it's an outlier. Perhaps TNS has seen the fun of Lord A's polls and decided to join the club.
Not sure quite why there's this attention to a (mythical?) TNS poll. Well I am actually and it's probably for the same reason there's overreaction the other way.
But this isn't a poll worth any further discussion. Sample size 518? No. Simply, no.
It's not mythical, the tables have been published. The sample of 518 is larger than Lord A's polls but not by much, however it's still a small size and it does have the same effect as in Lord A's polls.
It's not a political opinion poll then. 518 isn't a poll. It's voodoo.
To get MoE anywhere near 3% you need min 1000. Long complicated story behind that.
Btw I am extremely extremely wary of Lord Ashcroft's sub sample and constituency polling. Remember he was out by a whopping 17% at H&M.
Punters need to stick to proper tried and tested national opinion polling with real sample sizes.
The YouGov poll shows that Scots overwhelmingly believe that the SNP will be best at speaking up for Scotland in the Commons. The view was held by 58 per cent of those polled — more than those who plan to vote for Ms Sturgeon’s party......
....Only 18 per cent of Scots believe that his party would be best at giving them an influential voice at Westminster. Even among those who plan to vote Labour, 21 per cent think that the SNP would be better at speaking up for Scots.
Wow they're out the woodwork tonight on here. Wish you'd stick around and post, sensibly, during daylight hours. We need some more Labour supporters on here, not simply trolling. So be brave, turn up and write things more often please.
Excluding won't votes, don't knows and refuseds, the figures are: (Base = 518) Conservative 28% Labour 39% UKIP 14% Lib Dem 4% Green 8% Others 7% Fieldwork was January 23rd - 26th
SWINGBACKTASTIC!
Even I think thats Bollox.
If its included in Feb polling average its going to make CROSSSOVVVERRR difficult
Of course it is, but makes all the joviality over the four 1% Tory leads last week even funnier.
Yes, it's hilarious. Whither the Tory surge? That poll again, with changes on the previous TNS poll a week before:
Conservative 28% (-3) Labour 39% (+8) Liberal Democrat 4% (-4) UKIP 14% (-2) Green 8% (+1) Other 7% (nc)
If TGOHF had any wit surely he would have commented that Ukip just don't get 16% w TNS anymore
kippers on the slide is hardly post worthy anymore Sam.
Stuart Rose has the filthiest sense of humour you can imagine. My wife sat next to him at dinner a few years ago and it took him just 3 minutes before launching into dirty limericks...
Cracking lad.
Seem to remember he opposed the 50p rate reduction too TBF
Where's Rod? The funniest thing about the future EICIPM will be the stunned silences from all the professional commentariat airheads blowing Westminster bubbles whilst labour remains in the lead in the face of supposed disaster after disaster.
This could actually be an opportunity for Ed if he stands up to these greedy fat-cats. It would kill two birds with one stone: it would FINALLY mean people would have some idea of what Labour stands for, and also might get people to change their minds about Ed being a weak pushover who doesn't have the guts to stand up for himself.
Of course, he's probably not going to take the opportunity.
Not sure.
He tends to fight back in similar scenarios – Ralphgate, Murdochgate and Energygate spring to mind.
The difference with Rose is that he is generally well regarded unlike the Boot's guy who was a gift to Ed due to his tax-avoiding Monaco-residing activities.
Would you rather Stefano still lived in Milan then? He still wouldn't pay tax in the UK. He only moved to Monaco to get away from his wife.
Excluding won't votes, don't knows and refuseds, the figures are: (Base = 518) Conservative 28% Labour 39% UKIP 14% Lib Dem 4% Green 8% Others 7% Fieldwork was January 23rd - 26th
SWINGBACKTASTIC!
Even I think thats Bollox.
If its included in Feb polling average its going to make CROSSSOVVVERRR difficult
Of course it is, but makes all the joviality over the four 1% Tory leads last week even funnier.
Yes, it's hilarious. Whither the Tory surge? That poll again, with changes on the previous TNS poll a week before:
Conservative 28% (-3) Labour 39% (+8) Liberal Democrat 4% (-4) UKIP 14% (-2) Green 8% (+1) Other 7% (nc)
No comment, it's an outlier. Perhaps TNS has seen the fun of Lord A's polls and decided to join the club.
Not sure quite why there's this attention to a (mythical?) TNS poll. Well I am actually and it's probably for the same reason there's overreaction the other way.
But this isn't a poll worth any further discussion. Sample size 518? No. Simply, no.
With an initial sample of about 1000 that's normally what you end up with when you exclude don't knows, etc. I look forward to you dismissing ICM, etc, on that basis in future.
Sean_F makes a very good point about past-vote weighting.
Wow they're out the woodwork tonight on here. Wish you'd stick around and post, sensibly, during daylight hours. We need some more Labour supporters on here, not simply trolling. So be brave, turn up and write things more often please.
Night all.
I take your drift. However people work during the day, usually 5 days a week, plus Saturday nights are best spent outside not on a computer.
Where's Rod? The funniest thing about the future EICIPM will be the stunned silences from all the professional commentariat airheads blowing Westminster bubbles whilst labour remains in the lead in the face of supposed disaster after disaster.
Stuart Rose has the filthiest sense of humour you can imagine. My wife sat next to him at dinner a few years ago and it took him just 3 minutes before launching into dirty limericks...
Stuart Rose has the filthiest sense of humour you can imagine. My wife sat next to him at dinner a few years ago and it took him just 3 minutes before launching into dirty limericks...
Good to see that RodCrosby's fabled forecast of consistent Tory polling leads by January has come to pass. As accurate as his histories of WWII !
I do not know anything about Rod's history of WWII. And I'm not married to his model (I think his earlier predictions involved extrapolating outside the original data, and I'm not sure the way he's generating his probabilities makes sense). But he's explained his methodology, he publishes his predictions regularly, and he doesn't continually alter his model. That makes him as good (or better) as the academic modellers. (If he had an online archive of his predictions then that would be better, but nobody's perfect).
Excluding won't votes, don't knows and refuseds, the figures are: (Base = 518) Conservative 28% Labour 39% UKIP 14% Lib Dem 4% Green 8% Others 7% Fieldwork was January 23rd - 26th
SWINGBACKTASTIC!
Even I think thats Bollox.
If its included in Feb polling average its going to make CROSSSOVVVERRR difficult
Of course it is, but makes all the joviality over the four 1% Tory leads last week even funnier.
Yes, it's hilarious. Whither the Tory surge? That poll again, with changes on the previous TNS poll a week before:
Conservative 28% (-3) Labour 39% (+8) Liberal Democrat 4% (-4) UKIP 14% (-2) Green 8% (+1) Other 7% (nc)
No comment, it's an outlier. Perhaps TNS has seen the fun of Lord A's polls and decided to join the club.
Not sure quite why there's this attention to a (mythical?) TNS poll. Well I am actually and it's probably for the same reason there's overreaction the other way.
But this isn't a poll worth any further discussion. Sample size 518? No. Simply, no.
It's not mythical, the tables have been published. The sample of 518 is larger than Lord A's polls but not by much, however it's still a small size and it does have the same effect as in Lord A's polls.
It's not a political opinion poll then. 518 isn't a poll. It's voodoo.
To get MoE anywhere near 3% you need min 1000. Long complicated story behind that.
Btw I am extremely extremely wary of Lord Ashcroft's sub sample and constituency polling. Remember he was out by a whopping 17% at H&M.
Punters need to stick to proper tried and tested national opinion polling with real sample sizes.
You don't half post some po-faced rubbish sometimes.
ICM probably have the best reputation in British political opinion polling. The weighted base of their last opinion poll (before reallocating don't knows)?
YouGov Scotland poll. In December, 48% said they would now vote Yes, with 45% saying No. Today’s poll has Yes on 49% and No on 44%.
I find fascinating that the polls seem to consistently put Yes ahead but the polls for When To Hold The Second Referendum still don't give precedence to Immediate + 5 years.
I believe this is another expression of the Quebec Effect where a significant percentage of people intend to vote Yes, even while walking to the polling place but when they get there end up bottling it and voting No.
Stuart Rose has the filthiest sense of humour you can imagine. My wife sat next to him at dinner a few years ago and it took him just 3 minutes before launching into dirty limericks...
Cracking lad.
Ahem.
Que?
My sense of humour is probably filthier.
There was a beautiful young woman from Venus, who had a body shaped like a ....
Wow they're out the woodwork tonight on here. Wish you'd stick around and post, sensibly, during daylight hours. We need some more Labour supporters on here, not simply trolling. So be brave, turn up and write things more often please.
Night all.
Challenging people to bets and accusations of trolling tut tut
On topic. I agree with the logic, I will however point to 2 flies in the ointment. If voters are getting bored with Labour in Labour safe seats, what about the voters in Montgomeryshire with the LDs after 120 years? Surely there is the tradition, but that holds as long as the same families live there, internal migration might change the mixture of voters. In the past 20 years there has been upheaval, population wise, south of Scotland.
TSE And yougov of course had Yes over 50% 2 weeks before polling day, survation have had No ahead or it tied in their rerun referendum polls and they never had a Yes lead but longer term had it tighter than yougov
The YouGov poll shows that Scots overwhelmingly believe that the SNP will be best at speaking up for Scotland in the Commons. The view was held by 58 per cent of those polled — more than those who plan to vote for Ms Sturgeon’s party......
....Only 18 per cent of Scots believe that his party would be best at giving them an influential voice at Westminster. Even among those who plan to vote Labour, 21 per cent think that the SNP would be better at speaking up for Scots.
Even at around 25% the Labour support seems soft. A good campaign from the SNP could take another 5pts off them.
CCHQ really need to stop billionaire CEOs and ultra blairites attacking Ed, it's going to be catastrophic.
But what happens if/when Ed get's into power and has to actually work with CEO's, business, etc...?
Have you (or anybody of left-wing persuasion) even had the remotest thought of what the hell your actually going to do should you find yourselves back in power in May?
Excluding won't votes, don't knows and refuseds, the figures are: (Base = 518) Conservative 28% Labour 39% UKIP 14% Lib Dem 4% Green 8% Others 7% Fieldwork was January 23rd - 26th
SWINGBACKTASTIC!
Even I think thats Bollox.
If its included in Feb polling average its going to make CROSSSOVVVERRR difficult
Of course it is, but makes all the joviality over the four 1% Tory leads last week even funnier.
Yes, it's hilarious. Whither the Tory surge? That poll again, with changes on the previous TNS poll a week before:
Conservative 28% (-3) Labour 39% (+8) Liberal Democrat 4% (-4) UKIP 14% (-2) Green 8% (+1) Other 7% (nc)
If TGOHF had any wit surely he would have commented that Ukip just don't get 16% w TNS anymore
kippers on the slide is hardly post worthy anymore Sam.
Were you the bell boy who asked Georgie Best where it all went wrong?
Stuart Rose has the filthiest sense of humour you can imagine. My wife sat next to him at dinner a few years ago and it took him just 3 minutes before launching into dirty limericks...
Cracking lad.
Ahem.
Que?
My sense of humour is probably filthier.
There was a beautiful young woman from Venus, who had a body shaped like a ....
There was young gentleman of Khartoum Who took a lesbian up to his room But they argued all night As to who had the right To do what, and with which, and to whom
[would you believe my English beak used to use this to teach us grammar? I guess we might have passed the OFSTED tests...]
...this ridiculous Dick Dastardly cartoon character with an itchy invade finger they have made out of Putin is grade A baloney...
Given Russian support of Abkhazia, South Ossettia, Crimea, the Front National, and his desire to remain in power by alternating President and Prime Minster, characterising Putin as a bit invadey is not necessarily a caricature.
The point I am making is not that Putin is not authoritarian (has Russia ever been ruled another way?), nor that he is even nice, but that he isn't a caricature -no-one is. Even Hitler had a plan -he didn't just go around invading Western Europe because he got out of bed on the wrong side. What we're being asked to believe of Putin is a fairy story. When we question the absurdity of that story, we then have to ask why he has taken the strategic decisions he has. When you do that, it becomes rather clear that he has acted in Russia's best interests with toughness, nerve and some skill. Or you can just carry on chowing down on that tabloid (though shamefully it includes the broadsheets) fantasy.
Stuart Rose has the filthiest sense of humour you can imagine. My wife sat next to him at dinner a few years ago and it took him just 3 minutes before launching into dirty limericks...
Cracking lad.
Ahem.
Que?
My sense of humour is probably filthier.
There was a beautiful young woman from Venus, who had a body shaped like a ....
I saw that episode last on Freeview 70 - CBS Action I think.
...this ridiculous Dick Dastardly cartoon character with an itchy invade finger they have made out of Putin is grade A baloney...
Given Russian support of Abkhazia, South Ossettia, Crimea, the Front National, and his desire to remain in power by alternating President and Prime Minster, characterising Putin as a bit invadey is not necessarily a caricature.
The point I am making is not that Putin is not authoritarian (has Russia ever been ruled another way?),
I had lunch in Baselland with a Russian friend of mine today. We were discussing this very point. Apparently (he's a bit of a history buff), the Russians were very westernised and very well educated until the Mongol invasion (and actually democratic, especially in the Novgorod Republic). After that it all went a bit pear shaped.
Comments
Ian Smart @ianssmart 44 mins44 minutes ago
Great documentary about the first ever female rabbi on BBC4. Died in a concentration camp. With the SNP's enthusiastic support. Never forget
I don't doubt you had a reputation of being a polite, respectful and consultative local MP when you were in office. However, I'm sorry to say, you also had a bit of a reputation as an arch backbench Labour loyalist.
With the greatest respect, Glyn Davies does not.
Kevin Pringle @KevinJPringle 12 mins12 minutes ago
POLL: @YouGov in @thetimes. @theSNP 48%, Lab 27%. Leadership: @NicolaSturgeon +42, @jimmurphymp -10. #GE15 #voteSNP
The Conservatives haven't done a particularly good job on convincing them otherwise.
It is fair to say the Bushes increased spending, but Reagan clearly cut it overall and that was in the face of a Democratic Congress that was pushing ever higher spending which he resisted
http://articles.latimes.com/1985-04-23/news/mn-11453_1_healthier-budget
Spending as a percentage of gdp post WW2 and the huge FDR increase, fell the most under Clinton, then IKE, Nixon and Reagan, it rose the most under Obama, George W Bush and LBJ
http://www.cato.org/blog/clinton-obama-polar-opposites
Which would mean for a bare majority Labour need to gain about 100 seats in England and Wales. This would have to be a Blair 97 type landslide.
Of course, he's probably not going to take the opportunity.
Conservative 28% (-3)
Labour 39% (+8)
Liberal Democrat 4% (-4)
UKIP 14% (-2)
Green 8% (+1)
Other 7% (nc)
POLL: @YouGov in @thetimes. @theSNP 48%, Lab 27%. Leadership: @NicolaSturgeon +42, @jimmurphymp -10. #GE15 #voteSNP
If these are the figures then surely its becoming a case of times up for Murphy. As he embarks on frenetic initiative after frenetic initiative cheered on by a tame press then the SNP vote rises and the Daily Record circulation falls through the floor. At some point very soon a child in the crowd is going to point out Murphy's total lack of clothes and everyone else have a good laugh.
He tends to fight back in similar scenarios – Ralphgate, Murdochgate and Energygate spring to mind.
The difference with Rose is that he is generally well regarded unlike the Boot's guy who was a gift to Ed due to his tax-avoiding Monaco-residing activities.
http://politics.co.uk/blogs/2015/02/02/tristram-hunt-tells-parent-to-stop-moaning-and-do-some-work
I find it particularly funny because of the context provided by those posters who were so excited by the modest random variations in the polls that favoured the Tories last week. If this poll had been published the day after its fieldwork had finished, on the 27th, Tuesday last week, it would have possibly have prevented some people from becoming over-excited about Tory progress in the polls.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11377416/General-Election-2015-the-seats-that-will-decide-who-wins.html
Hampstead & Kilburn
Warwickshire North
Camborne & Redruth
Bolton West
Thurrock
Hendon
Oxford West & Abingdon
Solihull
Sheffield Central
Perhaps TNS has seen the fun of Lord A's polls and decided to join the club.
1. We will be being asked to join our great ally the US
2. The newspapers will be baying for blood
3. There will be lots of arguments along the lines of 'something must be done', 'danger of isolationism', 'standing in the world', 'humanitarian catastrophe', etc.
4. Sensible countries will be staying at home
But if you fail to remember all 4, just number 1 will pretty much do.
To save me hours of labour, does anybody know of an archive of Baxter's predictions?
My feeling is that the candidate matters a lot. I happen to think the Tory candidate in this seat -- a Welsh speaker, former member of Plaid Cymru, a farmer -- is very well suited to the constituency. I think he will take some dislodging.
The new LibDem candidate is certainly an improvement on Lembit Opik, but she is not as well matched or as well known as Glyn Davies.
But in truth, the LibDems have treated this seat disgracefully. After Emlyn Hooson's death, they first parachuted in Alex Carlile, and then Lembit Opik, neither of whom had any connection with Montgomeryshire. They were both completely ill-suited to the constituency.
The LibDems treated the place as a fiefdom to be farmed out to whatever (allegedly promising) Lib Dem needed a seat -- much like sone of the SoutH Wales Valleys seats are treated by Labour.
Additionally, the LibDems chose a violent drunkard to be the Assembly member. Mick Bates was convicted of common assault and public disorder in 2010, having punched up paramedical staff. He left the party, presumably before he could be expelled.
It's not just Lembit. The LibDems have made a series of poor choices in this seat, and they have paid the penalty both at Westminster and at the Assembly.
In my judgement, they will continue to pay the price in this constituency in May. I think the seat belongs to Glyn Davies until he retires. The LibDems can hope to retake it then.
But this isn't a poll worth any further discussion. Sample size 518? No. Simply, no.
Surely the next TNS will put UKIP on at least 20%? Anything less would be dull...
The sample of 518 is larger than Lord A's polls but not by much, however it's still a small size and it does have the same effect as in Lord A's polls.
Night all.
Cracking lad.
Lab no longer at BJESUS lows LDs at BJESUS lows
Britain’s most senior business leaders have accused Ed Miliband of attempting to shut down debate of his policies ahead of the election by making “personal attacks” on his critics.
Sir Ian Cheshire, who ran the DIY chain B&Q, spoke out alongside a number of the country’s most respected business leaders after Mr Miliband rounded on Stefano Pessina, the chief executive of Boots, after he said a Labour Government would be a “catastrophe” for Britain.
Sir Nigel Rudd, one of Britain’s leading industrialists, said the highly personal attacks “stifled debate” and “made people think twice about voicing their opinions”.
Lord Rose, the chairman of online grocer Ocado and now a Tory peer, added that Labour was unfairly “almost playing the man, not the football”.
Another executive said the criticism was similar to how “the SNP cowed the business community in Scotland [with] threats” before September’s independence referendum.
To get MoE anywhere near 3% you need min 1000. Long complicated story behind that.
Btw I am extremely extremely wary of Lord Ashcroft's sub sample and constituency polling. Remember he was out by a whopping 17% at H&M.
Punters need to stick to proper tried and tested national opinion polling with real sample sizes.
....Only 18 per cent of Scots believe that his party would be best at giving them an influential voice at Westminster. Even among those who plan to vote Labour, 21 per cent think that the SNP would be better at speaking up for Scots.
Sean_F makes a very good point about past-vote weighting.
Also: It's funny.
However people work during the day, usually 5 days a week, plus Saturday nights are best spent outside not on a computer.
...the the train firms...
Goodnight!
How we'll laugh... Until it get's serious.
ICM probably have the best reputation in British political opinion polling. The weighted base of their last opinion poll (before reallocating don't knows)?
503.
I believe this is another expression of the Quebec Effect where a significant percentage of people intend to vote Yes, even while walking to the polling place but when they get there end up bottling it and voting No.
There was a beautiful young woman from Venus, who had a body shaped like a ....
This Pessina chap, Gideon's friend, is really helping Miliband.
I agree with the logic, I will however point to 2 flies in the ointment.
If voters are getting bored with Labour in Labour safe seats, what about the voters in Montgomeryshire with the LDs after 120 years?
Surely there is the tradition, but that holds as long as the same families live there, internal migration might change the mixture of voters. In the past 20 years there has been upheaval, population wise, south of Scotland.
And with that Goodnight.
Have you (or anybody of left-wing persuasion) even had the remotest thought of what the hell your actually going to do should you find yourselves back in power in May?
Who took a lesbian up to his room
But they argued all night
As to who had the right
To do what, and with which, and to whom
[would you believe my English beak used to use this to teach us grammar? I guess we might have passed the OFSTED tests...]