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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Liberals had held Montgomeryshire for more than a centu
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Liberals had held Montgomeryshire for more than a century – until Lembit sought re-election
At GE10 the incumbent MP who did worse than his party in any of the 650 seats was Lembit Opik in what for over a century had been a Liberal stronghold. At one stage during the last campaign you could have got 8/1 on the Tories taking the seat because it was seen as so much of a certainty.
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Conservatives 43.7% +13.6%
Liberal Democrats 33.6 -5.4%
Labour 11.4% +4.5%
Plaid Cymru 11.3% -2.5%
Swing: Lib->Con 9.5%
I'm not convinced the 2010 result was simply an anti-Lembit vote.
Last week the Yellow Peril were 6th behind the Welsh Nats and The Greens.
Voters elect individuals not parties or party leaders which is why Opik got booted out in 2010.
**** WAVES GOALPOSTS IN THE AIR *****
They took advantage of Ralph's lawful tax allowance, by the lawful device of deed of variation.
No tax was in fact mitigated at the time, and may never be, as Mrs. Miliband has had 20 years to lawfully mitigate tax herself.
The manoeuvre they undertook has since been superceded by statue, in the 2008 Finance Act.
Is it just me or was that the biggest crock of shite?
Vow++
Vow^2
Labour trying to be everything to everyman here... Not wanting to abandon the "shared benefits" of the union that they campaigned on during the referendum, they are left with the weak beer of additional powers to vary welfare - effectively Holyrood can lump in more cash, which won't cause any problems with the view of Scottish subsidy junkies. Add in the clusterfeck waiting to happen decoupling of housing benefit form universal credit, supposedly so they can Reverse The Bedroom Tax (tm).
All just comes across as back of the fag packet panic.
Is this really what Labour will stand on in Scotland?
They are going to lose half their seats give or take and a catastrophic number of deposits.
One day, if they survive, they might make a come back. It might even be 2020 when the minority tory party finally and irredeemably splits into 2 on an issue so few outside the party actually give a damn about. But it will not be 2015.
» show previous quotes
Ideally, if the Samplemiser was still around, we'd have a better idea. Failing that, we could pool the polls over some reasonable moving timeframe (a week) and derive standard errors from the larger sample, then work out the probabilities the Tory lead is greater than 0. We could then say, for example, if the probability was >0.025 or <0.975 there would be a degree of uncertainty about who was ahead...</p>
Time series and moving averages memories memories.
Bloody Hell and i have an applied statistics degree too, only a 2.2 though
Long time ago too mind.
Sheffield Poly. Herriot House. Funnily enough i do remember spending a lot of time in
http://www.theoldqueenshead.co.uk/history.html
He's not dull, you have to give him that.
I remember him at NUS conference 1986. In them days he got himself elected on what appeared indistinguishable from an Independent MLRP ticket...
Where labour are hypocrites is in criticising companies for minimising their tax bills using a corporation tax code largely put in place by the last - Labour - government.
LordAshcroft: @toryboypierce @SkyNews @Kevin_Maguire ....and what a poll it is...as I write it up....
Tax avoidance - what Parliament didn't intend to give you, but is still lawful to exploit.
Tax evasion - Theft
The Milibands took advantage of Ralph's IHT Tax Allowance. [he had forgotten to use it in his will]
p.s. I thought we're no longer allowed to use past polling performance for anything post 2010? 120 years worth, no less
Rather more losses though.
If you don't, you're either St Francis of Assisi, or you need a better accountant...
There may well be enough Lib Dem cake for everyone which is why I find talk of gains fanciful.
But FFA by default requires EVEL at least or abolition of the Labour Benefits System better known as the House of Lords to turn the commons into an English parliament and a replacement for the Lords to deal with "Federal" matters.
Labour have no logical way to turn but because politics seldom has any basis in logic, they will twist and turn and lie and repeat the same desperate political moves only months apart. It's only 10 days since Labour in Scotland were all over the papers claiming "THE VOW HAS BEEN DELIVERED".
No people, regardless of party loyalty are that stupid. No-one will accept such a blatant volte face inside 10 days.
While the law says it's ok, it's ok. Did Ed propose changing the relevant tax laws while he worked in the treasury?
What it may be about is a poll for Womans' Hour, which gives Labour an 11% lead as best understanding the issues, among parents with children.
I'm surprised they're not too embarrassed to post them. Perhaps that makes its own comment on the level of self-delusion found amongst Labour's members in Scotland.
IMO governments do not seem to be proactive enough about seeking out "loopholes" in the tax system, investigating them, determining whether they have an intended effect, and if not, introducing legislation to close them. The tax affairs of all high net worth individuals and large corporations that are paying less tax than their assets and/or known income suggest should be the case, should be looked into as a matter of routine.
But then in the UK, governments do not routinely seek out the bits that are going wrong and use them as evidence of systemic failure. They prefer to hide them from public gaze.
Simon Fletcher @fletchersimon 1m1 minute ago
RT @labourpress: Ridiculous Mail splash tonight. They have revealed a Tory peer is attacking Labour. Shock.
I wouldn't be tempted at 4/1.
No figures yet, but Lab set to lose 30 seats
Awesome.
Either the Yes Scotland campaign message was so coherent and effective in terms of Future Scotland and it's press coverage or all those people on the ground had an obvious and profound impact.
.@Ed_Miliband is clearly doing a lot right to get this level of abuse from the Tory press. If you want to make them more angry, vote Labour
http://www.tns-bmrb.co.uk/news/latest-polling-from-tns-uk-voter-intention
http://www.tns-bmrb.co.uk/uploads/files/TNS_BMRB_Tables_-_All_adults.pdf
How many other MPs bother (voluntarily) to actually consult those who they were elected to represent, before casting their vote?
"Last summer, the House of Commons was recalled following the gassing of innocent civilians by the Syrian President, Bashar al-Assad. At the time, I anticipated being asked by the Prime Minister to support a military strike on Damascus. I emailed those constituents I was able to, inviting opinions on what they considered to be the best way forward. Most of the replies reinforced my personal view that the case for military action had not been made. I could not see how it would improve the position. I and many other like-minded Conservatives informed the government of our opinion and the motion finally put to the recalled House of Commons after much negotiation did not sanction a military strike. I considered the final motion to be acceptable and was very disappointed when it was defeated. It felt to me that the UK, a leading NATO country was turning its back on the world, an act that would only encourage those with evil intent. The reality was that the UK and the US did stand back, and have allowed events in the Middle East to play out as they have done. The current position is far more worrying than it was last year.
This email once again shares with you the decision I may face in the near future. It's rumoured that there may be a sudden recall of Parliament this week or next to consider becoming involved in air strikes against ISIL, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant. At this stage, we do not know what military action would be involved. However I would expect it to involve air strikes against ISIL, though perhaps not in Syria and not involving troops on the ground. This, of course, may change.
This time, I am personally more inclined to support military involvement. The scale of ISIL's advance, its incredible brutality, its mass killings and beheadings, and threat it poses to us here in the UK seem to me to be increasingly serious. At this stage I feel we cannot continue to turn our backs on what is happening. It is important that I keep in touch with my constituents’ views on such an emotive and controversial issue. Entering military conflict is an extremely serious matter, full of uncertainty, and it seems right that I should invite my constituents to share any thoughts they have on the matter."
Basiliscious!
Looks like a minor (very minor) uptick in Labour's standing, but can't figure out why it should be.
In the meantime, I hope Labour will find someone in business who they are happy to listen to rather than to Cantona kick them...
http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31089739
http://cnsnews.com/blog/terence-p-jeffrey/obama-fdr-set-modern-records-gdp-spending
In any case, Obama has now made clear he wants an end to 'mindless austerity'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-31097854
That being said, being serious no-one ever believes me round my way when I say I think the math favours Labour, so I could end up looking really stupid if he loses.
As accurate as his histories of WWII !
Tomorrow maybe Rose rebound (or not)
Quite happy with the Cons share at the moment, but I'm trying to keep my preferences out. The algorithm will be applied after this week's polling regardless of what they produce.
But it doesn't look as if the Con rating has fallen - instead it looks like a small rise in Lab rating.
(Base = 518)
Conservative 28%
Labour 39%
UKIP 14%
Lib Dem 4%
Green 8%
Others 7%
Fieldwork was January 23rd - 26th
That is nothing compared to the PB Hodges though, January was the pulling away month.
......and yet again, they have fallen down the polling crossover hill.
Any PB Tories think 1.63 Cameron PM might have been a bit short.
As for Reagan, the numbers only look there because GDP grew as a result of Volcker curbing the inflation beast during the Carter years. He still spent like a maniac:
http://www.truthfulpolitics.com/images/us-government-size-spending-by-president.jpg
The deficit graph says it all:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_United_States_public_debt#mediaviewer/File:US_Federal_Debt_as_Percent_of_GDP_by_President.jpg
#sayingnothing
94 more days of businessmen who don’t want to pay more tax saying life on Earth will end if Labour wins the election
It reinforces my view that the Conservatives have simply failed to provide leadership and take their case to the country and win the political arguments.
They spend most of their time being buffeted by the seven winds: either acquiescing to the consensus of the New Labour years, or apologising for when they have to do something vaguely economically right of centre.
**** Sits back eating popcorn ****
If its included in Feb polling average its going to make CROSSSOVVVERRR difficult