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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,669
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Latest French poll shows Marine Le Pen in front on around 30%, but Hollande only just behind Sarkozy and Juppe for second place on 21 to 23% respectively, while Valls, on 23%, ties Sarkozy and leads Juppe
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

    Hollande seems to have taken 10% directly from Bayrou.

    It would be very interesting to see run-off polls; has the recent (near doubling) of Hollande's vote share fed through to his second round share?

    If not, this dramatically increases the likelihood that Le Pen faces Hollande (and therefore that Le Pen becomes Madame President)?

    As an aside, this probably significantly reduces the chance of two UMP candidates in the first round.
    It would be like lighting up a box of dynamite, throwing it into the European Commission and then locking the door.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,251
    edited January 2015
    SeanF Indeed, and leaks of his extravagant spending have not helped either

    Grandiose Indeed, but 30% in the first round would be more than Hollande and Sarkozy got in 2012 or Chirac got in 1995 or 2002

    rcs1000/Grandiose Indeed, a Le Pen v Hollande run-off would be fascinating, and a split centre right in round 1 could seal the deal

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    Cyclefree said:

    Miss Cyclefree, a good post, as ever. The evidential difficulties are hardly helped when instances such as one brave victim cleverly collecting her clothing which contained DNA samples of her attackers, only for the police to lose every single garment.

    Are you really so naive that you think the plods accidentally lost that evidence ?

    You discipline the officer concerned. If it was a genuine mistake you've sent the right message. If it was done on purpose, you have one annoyed police officer who then has a reason to speak and you use that lever to find out more.

    Breaking a conspiracy or a code of silence amongst a professional group is not easy. But it can be done if there's the will and determination. It was done in the Met in the 1970's. But crucially there was someone at the top prepared to do it and the stink from the corruption was too great to ignore.

    And do you really think the South Yorkshire plods want to clean up their act ?

    From the Guardian's report of the Home Office Select Committee's questioning of the SYP leadership:

    ' He strenuously denied suggestions from MPs on the committee that he had been grossly incompetent or had been involved in a dereliction of duty, but added: "I do have questions to ask myself. I look on with a sense of horror … I wish I had done more."

    But Vaz bluntly told Hughes that he found his evidence "totally unconvincing" and said while his contrition was welcome it needed to go further and his evidence would be referred to the Woolf inquiry into child sexual exploitation.

    The Conservative MP Nicola Blackwood said the committee had heard evidence in private from the Home Office researcher that her 2002 report had been greeted with hostility by South Yorkshire police. She said they had heard evidence that the researcher had been contacted by two officers who threatened to pass her name to the groomers in Rotherham and she had been left in fear of her life.

    The Liberal Democrat MP Julian Huppert suggested to the current South Yorkshire chief constable, David Crompton, that there had been an active conspiracy involving police officers and questioned how the public could now trust South Yorkshire police. '
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    MikeL said:

    Letter received from Hertsmere Council today listing everyone registered to vote at my address.

    Form to be returned with names deleted if anyone should be deleted.

    Anyone to be added then list names on form and return - but that will NOT register any such people - the individuals will then be sent their own personal form to register.

    So Individual Registration is kicking-in, even for people already on the register - ie where people have moved.

    No question this is going to lead to more young / lazy / uneducated people dropping off the register - and that can only help the Conservatives.

    NB. All of the above can also be done online.

    Ditto. I have received one too.

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